and available human knowledge of the particular innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 846 Y. Guo et al. system, within the context of a more general innovation context (i e. the socioeconomic context in
but lack in depth knowledge of the NEST itself. Accordingly, we need technical guidance. The degree of such needs varies with the complexity of the NEST.
a scaffold upon which to locate their knowledge. Figure 7 presents a post-workshop depiction of main alternative development pathways.
Foresight is expected to facilitate a framework for integrated knowledge. 2. The 9th Science and Technology foresight in Japan A variety of methods have been adopted in alignment with the objectives of a project including extrapolative/normative methods or qualitative/quantitative methods.
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 7 Scenario requires extensive knowledge of the field under investigation,
By their nature, experts with a deep and broad knowledge who joined scenario groups or the Delphi survey come disproportionately from the middle-aged generation.
and transfer of knowledge, education, and maintenance of education level by standardization 12-E Strategy toward a sustainable infrastructure systemb Notes:
B science-based stakeholder dialogues initiated by scientific institutions with the aim of increasing knowledge
The process should be constructed to make maximum use of the concentration of knowledge about one particular industry that such a trade body representative has.
and provides knowledge and analysis for a broader, national research prioritisation exercise. The paper analyses the implementation of The irish foresight exercise
was the focus on translating future-oriented knowledge (from drivers and trends) into grand challenges for the national research and innovation system.
technological and innovation knowledge geared towards large challenges. It calls on European institutions and Member States to focus European research on the major challenges facing our world.
investment Smart travel Carbon taxes Transport market liberalisation versus environmental regulation Education and skills The knowledge economy ICT in education Social mobility and higher education Social
impact trends (identified by roundtable participants) Ten trends most likely to happen Ten highest impact trends Rise of BRICS Converging technologies Ageing populations Knowledge economy Global population
During the course of the exercise, the appointed research and consulting team was asked to translate the knowledge generated (global drivers and trends and their national implications) into a set of grand challenges for Ireland.
bottom-up process that assembled grand challenges by combining knowledge on drives and trends with national context and insights.
ISSN 1463-6689 DOI 10.1108/14636681311310132 Sergey Shashnov and Anna Sokolova are based at the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge,
This study provided a more profound knowledge of national competitive advantages the resources required for development of the most important S&t areas,
if knowledge about competitor's intention and capabilities can be monitored. Without such knowledge the capacity to access existing and new markets
and to identify and maintain the basis of competitive advantage will be limited (Powell and Bradford, 2000). In addition to the resource-based theory, the modern emphasis is on network approaches to industrial strategy
which involves integrating knowledge from broad and diverse groups, could be of benefit to CTI.
topics were selected according to the knowledge of a domain expert. After selection, these Delphi topics are mapped then by the following taxonomy framework. 2. 3 Mapping of Delphi topics 2. 3. 1 Taxonomy framework for mapping.
When entering into the foresight phase, such kinds of research output can be used as a knowledge base for brainstorming among participants,
2. Considering that FTA is an imaginative projection of current knowledge, FTA's practical outcomes are characterised by human behaviour under subjective opinion.
The information, knowledge and interpretation and resultant subjective opinion of FTA participants are decisive when dealing with grand challenges 3. Thus,
In other words, while FTA ACTIVITIES generate new knowledge, actually both practical and scientific knowledge, these are not scientific projects per se.
and they need to tap into uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge. Policy-and other decision-makers should
and moving from forecasting activities and expert-driven identification processes towards the inclusion of expertise from a broader range of disciplines, a wider range of stakeholders and sometimes also the knowledge of lay people.
and knowledge gained in distributed FTA ACTIVITIES. Further in Germany the process is less coordinated and does not involve heterogeneous stakeholders nor make use of the knowledge gained in various FTA.
Hence, the implication for future emerging technologies is that the methodology and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
or excluding certain type of knowledge and expertise. This claim, which is not new, implies the need for an organisational structure that includes a variety of actors and perspectives from the outset.
e Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, Higher School of economics, Moscow, Russia a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t
or allow expression of different facets of knowledge or experience 2, or even tap different domains of knowing 8. A detailed discussion on the reasons for applying a combination of methods in social sciences goes beyond the scope of this paper,
or projects current knowledge and assumptions 19,20 and does not tell us much about the future.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 qualitative) as an imaginative projection of current knowledge in which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role (p. 753.
who see FTA EXERCISES as attempts to collect knowledge about‘posits'or possible futures, their plausibility and limits, their internal consistency and conformity with models and data, their consistency with expert judgement,
Online analysis of data and creation of knowledge repositories: Cooke and Buckley 7 believe that web 2. 0 tools can be used to make data of all sorts accessible to respondents and researchers:
or issues at the interplay between science and society, to keep track of the content of one's intellectual portfolio of knowledge
This is expected to generate dynamic cross-methodological learning processes as at each phase or iteration of the exercise ideas flow between different domains of knowledge.
(which is confined not to the FTA COMMUNITY) on the type of knowledge that qualitative and quantitative methodologies can produce and on the value of combining them 45 49.
In Section 2 we pointed to the need to understand the opportunities that different methodologies can offer in collecting knowledge about possible futures 22.
and contrasted set of options that can be devised by eliciting experts'knowledge. Whether one or the other of such options will eventually materialise depends, amongst others,
i e. their valuable yet tacit (not codified) knowledge, is therefore of the essence. 9 8 During the 2011 FTA Conference a lively discussion was devoted to the shift of FTA usage from exploring potential risks to inspiring sustainable innovation.
and other types of grey literature in order to advance knowledge in this area. Future research could take up this endeavour.
when the expertise and knowledge made available by stakeholders and experts in the specific sector (s) subject to FTA can contribute to significantly increasing the quality of FTA results.
a stocktaking of basic knowledge (including e g. relevant statistical evidence, existing scenarios and corresponding outputs,
and the uncertainty that derives from an insufficient knowledge of complex phenomena (e g. climate change). Ultimately, what matters is that methods
a knowledge-based perspective, Futures 43 (2011) 265 278.23 For-Learn, Online foresight guide, European foresight platform.
Professor Alexander Sokolov is Deputy Director of the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge and Director of the International foresight Centre at the Higher School of economics (HSE) one of the most prominent national research universities
Award no. 0531194) and the Science of Science policy Program Measuring and Tracking Research Knowledge Integration (Georgia Tech;
and the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. We are further sincerely grateful
Artifacts themselves, the technical knowledge to make them or some combination of these? Or the interface of artifacts and ideas in technological practices?
but has turned as the object of systematic human knowledge and a new dweltanschaungt (at that time purely mechanistic).
asserting that our knowledge consists, at every moment, of those hypotheses that have shown their fitness by surviving so far in their struggle for existence,
knowledge processes evolve through vicarious forces, that is, inherited-acquired (by learning) psychological forces that act as surrogates for natural selection
In the present stage of our knowledge no one can be sure which method is suited best for purposes of simulating technological evolution and/or for developing useful tools for technological forecasting.
and genetic programming as the most promising candidate for establishing the knowledge basis of a working Evolutionary theory of technological change,
D. S. Bendall (Ed.),Evolution from Molecules to Men, Cambridge university Press, 1983, pp. 403 425.22 K. Popper, Objective Knowledge:
An Evolutionary approach, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1972.23 D. T. Campbell, Blind variation and selective retention in creative thought as in other knowledge processes, Psychol.
To our knowledge, the potential of EMA for FTA has however not been investigated yet. This paper can be seen as an attempt to do so.
EMA is first and foremost an alternative way of using the available models, knowledge, data, and information.
which are built upon yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge. Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging,
In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack of exploitation.
and by widening the perspectives and knowledge base of researchers, policy-makers and business decision-makers. -be useful in creating a common language and understanding between the various interest groups.
There are, however, many reasons why the practical use of scientific knowledge and technology varies widely between countries.
which are built upon as yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge. It has been documented well that the innovation process is interactive including a multitude of short-term and long-term feedback loops between the different stages of the innovation process 15,24.
and practitioners into how we constitute knowledge and realities in our thinking and research practice 27.
This questioning takes then the form of a‘turning back'on knowledge, language, and representation to make them more transparent (27, p. 985, after Lawson 30).
For instance, Hekkert et al. 40 highlight that stimulating knowledge flows (alone) is not sufficient to induce technological change and economic performance.
There is a need for stakeholders to exploit this knowledge in order to create new business opportunities. This stresses the importance of stakeholders as sources of innovation.
and therefore it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge (methodology). For instance, forecasting and modeling methods have a focus on
but it is still essentially working in terms of the same basic known unknown dichotomy 8. In contrast, explorative scenarios deal with different kinds of knowledge, ignorance and uncertainty, for example,
socially constructed ignorance or‘uncomfortable knowledge'49. The identification of the motivation behind any scenario exercise appears to underpin the scenario typology described by Borjesön et al. 50,
feedback of individual contributions of information and knowledge; an assessment of the group judgment or view;
4. Results and implications The value of scenarios lies in the robustness of the claims to knowledge within the process of the scenario development.
As this knowledge is constructed (socially, an explicit reflexive account of the production of that knowledge is a methodological necessity,
as it will reveal significant choices underlying the presented scenarios 61. To structure our research,
Still, the implementation could be improved with regards to knowledge dissemination e g. education and the scientific communities'involvement in policy discourse. 4. 3. Empowering stakeholders Developing
but the process of exchanging knowledge is recognized to overcome some limits of conventional scenario practice 61.
whenever one speaks of users and producers of knowledge. Our analysis suggests that scenarios developed with broader stakeholder/expert participation will provide richer future images that go beyond the probable that is determined by the past and present 73,75.
and that the knowledge produced is uncertain. Therefore being a professional practice to support significant decisions,
developing and using scenarios need to be more assured of its claims to knowledge 61.
so that the claims to knowledge can be critiqued constructively and improved. Secondly, we argue that the use of cooperative strategies,
but the process of exchanging knowledge is recognized to overcome some limits of conventional research, particularly as far as grand challenges are concerned.
climate change, food security, rural development, agricultural knowledge systems. The 2nd SCAR Foresight exercise. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at http://ec. europa. eu/research/agriculture/scar/pdf/scar 2nd foresight exercise en. pdf 6. 3rd SCAR Foresight exercise EC (2011), Sustainable
. van Assel, D. S. Rothman, An updated scenario typology, Futures 35 (2003) 423 443.49 S. Rayner, Uncomfortable knowledge:
and technology assessment studies included actors and knowledge mainly from science and industry 1, 19 22.
and stakeholders to generate broader knowledge than in 1999. These experts and stakeholders came from industry
included prospective studies of long-term opportunities as well as participatory activities such as building networks to access disparate sources of knowledge and to legitimate the governance of nanotechnology.
and interests of industry and on the transfer of knowledge between industry and natural sciences. By conducting these FTA on behalf of the BMBF
and sometimes also the knowledge of lay people. Not only the range of stakeholders involved was increasing in the last decade,
In Germany, disparate sources of knowledge were pooled not a nano-specific organizational context was established not that could serve as an umbrella organization to promote cooperation among agencies
and ministries of the federal government and to pool the knowledge gained in stakeholders processes conducted beyond the BMBF.
As a result, the knowledge from the various nano-related FTA and participatory processes remains unconnected,
whether the US initiative will be as effective in implementing its far-reaching goals as it was in pooling disparate sources of knowledge to design its vision for 2020.4.4.
The NNI's early nanotechnology assessment studies indicated to the public that policy was based on scientific knowledge information
or excluding a certain type of knowledge and expertise. This claim, which is not new,
and knowledge gained in distributed FTA ACTIVITIES. While early FTA involved experts almost exclusively fromscience and industry and governmental bodies, current future-oriented activities involve at least in the US experts from social science and humanities.
and does not include the requirements of heterogeneous stakeholders nor make use of the knowledge gained in various FTA.
an inter-organizational governance framework is crucial to uptake the knowledge as well as the requirements derived from various stakeholders.
a knowledge-based perspective, Futures 43 (2011) 265 278.29 M. Rader, A l. Porter, Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types, in:
in order to include knowledge gained while searching. The sources selected include daily newspapers from Europe and other world regions
By using visual rather than textual information it was aimed to mobilise tacit knowledge and intuition and partly transcend established pathways of reasoning.
but all of them integrated other experts'and actors'opinions and knowledge. Several co-ordinators decided to reach out to a wider community of actors.
and the knowledge economy, MIT Sloan Manag. Rev. 78 (September October 1999) 129 141.12 I. Miles, Innovation In services, Oxford university Press, New york, 2005.13 G. Mulgan, R. Ali, R. Halkett
without systematizing the knowledge accumulated into the kinds of sense making frameworks that enable researchers and policy makers to share,
compare and accumulate knowledge. This situation seems in part due to the rapid and profuse response by FTA
while at the same time helping to facilitate more sharing of knowledge across the disparate communities that use the future.
/Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 3 Elisabetta Marinelli Phd*Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit (Kfg), European commission DG
This mobility process enhances the knowledge transfer and networking between organisations and individuals across company levels and private/public sectors. However,
First, due to the dense economic and social relationships between public and private organisations, participatory and consensus seeking approaches have more appeal to policy makers than deep, scientific expert analysis of available knowledge.
and knowledge transfer between public and private institutions and companies in Denmark support the initiation of participatory consensus approaches 2. 4. National styles in foresight and foresight methods In a recent paper,
Expertise refers to the skills and knowledge of individuals in the particular area of the foresight exercise.
Second, Denmark‘s tradition of basing policy decisions on analyses of available knowledge is weak.
P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 10‘Denmark has had never strong traditions for basing political decisions on accessible knowledge as opposed to Sweden, for instance.
The aim is to increase knowledge and improve the decision-making base for investments in technology development in Denmark.
and a strategy for transforming Denmark into a leading growth, knowledge and entrepreneurial society. The work was set up in the wake of the government programme‘‘New Goals,
Innovation and competitiveness Denmark's competitiveness Innovation The public sector of the future Knowledge and education Education, learning and competence development What works?
Evidence in practice Knowledge production and dissemination of knowledge in society People and societal design Sustainable transport and infrastructure Better life-space space for life and growth Cultural understanding in a globalised world Changing
This stakeholder inclusion might also reflect a belief in distribution of knowledge and that interaction with stakeholders generates learning.
in interaction with env. factors 0 19 Innovation and competitiveness 0 10 The public sector of the future 0 15 Knowledge and education What works?
Knowledge about the future can be gathered, structured and applied in different ways by using various foresight methods (see, among other things, 1). In this article,
'the supply of anticipatory knowledge or‘intelligence, 'such as the dynamics of change, future challenges, risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the current system, visions for change,
and deciding what type of knowledge will become important in the future. The national‘organizational foresight'study indeed focused more on organisational issues
which levers and barriers were encountered by policy-makers involved in the in depth interviews. 3. 5. 1. Knowledge
especially at the local level, is the low level of knowledge and expertise, making it difficult for policy-makers to know which types of scenario analysis methods
Along the same line, the ways in which workable agreements will be achieved should be prepared from the outset building upon shared understanding as well as collective and creative knowledge.
when they affirm that one of the defining features of foresight is the creative generation of synthetic knowledge
Towards this end, it may be crucial to ensure multiple communication channels to enable knowledge to flow,
and vary from concerns with the take-up of FTA knowledge in policy and decision processes, through to organisational vision-building,
For example, knowledge generated through the application of fta methods, FTA as a process of coproduuctio of stakeholder communities (i e. social capital),
The objective of the first was to collect knowledge, and 459 F. Scapolo et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 thus advance the existing literature, on how the business sector (e g. industry, industrial associations and foundations) uses FTA TOOLS for a variety of reasons.
and a continuing reassessment of relationships with the private sector and the innovation-related Knowledge Economy agenda (e g. through third stream activities.
and provide knowledge on the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making: It is becoming evident that FTA is a useful tool to facilitate,
and decision-making requires addressing the cloudy world of the relationship of knowledge to power. 4 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/conclusions. html. 460 F. Scapolo et al./
It is argued that participatory methods are effective at stimulating the transfer of knowledge, mutual learning and collective visioning 4. New (systemic) policy instruments have been/are being developed to facilitate such interaction between relevant stakeholders 5
development and innovation 7. Users are seen as important sources of knowledge and co-shapers of the innovation trajectory (cf.
this knowledge is crucial in view of strategic planning and decision making within innovation research. Therefore, lowering this uncertainty is an important challenge,
In crowdsourcing on the other hand, an unsolved problem or question in this case what are (future) needs concerning digital TV is submitted to a large‘crowd'of users, drawing on knowledge that is available in the crowd.
Two different approaches for tapping the knowledge and imaginative potential of users and for fostering a more anticipatory mind-set were illustrated.
juridical knowledge with citizens in order to enhance the implementation of sustainable policies and increase transparency. The implementation of the proposed 3 The system proposes the use of the Commonkads 35
and the Hoshin Kanri 36 37 tools to support the acquisition, representation, modelling and maintenance of a firm's knowledge system.
the latter being responsible for describing the capability of a firm's knowledge system to solve problems using organisational learning. 4 In the proposed system the method of perpetual budget 38 offers such characteristics as it supports the analysis of cause
Also, in combining robust measures with learning and knowledge while monitoring the system and enabling it to become operational.
Moreover, although the system proposed enables knowledge to be shared formalised and transferred across the value chain,
which social relations and the communication of insights and knowledge 44 are critical for successful outcomes.
(thus supporting phase 1). It does so by enabling a shared understanding of stakeholders'views as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes (thus supporting phase 2). This builds upon knowledge
, B. Van Wielinga, Knowledge Engineering and Management: The Commonkads Methodology, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2002.36 B. J. Witcher, R. Butterworth, Hoshin kanri at Hewlett-packard, Journal of General Management 25 (2000) 70
Foresight could potentially greatly benefit from resources that become available when the knowledge base increases through networks.
Furthermore, effective instruments for the reinteggratio of knowledge into the networks'partner organizations are needed. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
and in scientific discoveries and technological knowledge, leading to the development of products and services. 2. Market pull:
assimilate, transforms and exploit knowledge to produce a dynamic organizational capability''27. This translates into the firm's aim at surviving over time
Spread of knowledge in the value chain and concentration on core competencies 35,36. 5. Business models that integrate across various industries 9, 37.
and as inside-out and outside-in processes (see 40 for three open innovation process archetypes) where external knowledge is brought into the company
and internal knowledge and results are transferred to the outside for commercialization. In 41 Jasner describes the‘Moonraker'project of the car manufacturer Volkswagen.
in order to bring new experiences and external knowledge into the company. Among other things it led to the insight that significantly different characteristics are attributed to the brand than expected.
therefore for exploratory qualitative research characterized by scant previous knowledge 43 45. Two rationales for multi-case study designs can be identified 44:
and an external consultancy Deltares) enhanced by external knowledge. The EICT case allows a cooperation of a small set of trusted partners to be studied,
principles of the Cyclic Innovation Model are (1) that innovating is predominantly a cyclic interaction between different actors who exchange knowledge
and managed by RWS but draws heavily from external knowledge starting in 2010.4.1.4. Leadership WINN operated as part of a government organization.
3) The exchange of knowledge between organizations and their external environment was expected to become more important in the future 10.
It aims at providing an innovative environment where knowledge is pooled, new ideas are generated and a legal framework for the free flow of information is created.
To serve as a knowledge platform without complex assignments and layers of bureaucracy between all partners,
the partners created a framework to facilitate the exchange of knowledge with predefined rules and clear IPR boundaries.
The outcome of the applied futures research methods is broadened substantially in projects with interdisciplinary character and a combination of knowledge and insight from various industries.
So-called Knowledge and Innovation communities (KICS) were to‘‘become key drivers of sustainable growth and competitiveness across Europe through world-leading innovation''52.
cost and profit projections in predefined cases to establish a basis of decision-making Project 2. 7 Networking on demand Identifies matching knowledge carriers in the partner network on demand,
exchanging and developing knowledge were created, rules for developing and exchanging IPRS were predefined, and new educational ways to encourage entrepreneurship in Europe were created.
and IT knowledge and to provide the suitable tools for the early steps of innovation from topic identification to execution of large-scale R&d projects.
therein pooling the knowledge and information of several partners. Thus, it is expected that the outcome of foresight is enhanced due to the partner network of EICT.
This would promise to identify new ideas across various thematic fields through crossfertillizatio of ideas and knowledge.
and consolidate knowledge and opinions related to water management. The former are those activities that are conducted predominantly between the contract partners RWS and Deltares, the latter within the larger, loosely coupled network of experts.
Thus, WINN can be described as a bundle of conventional foresight activities to consolidate knowledge, to identify new ideas
and to initiate new solutions for water management enhanced through external support and knowledge. In the sense of this article the WINN activities can be characterized as foresight supported by a loosely linked network.
Information Knowledge Systems Management 5 (2005) 245 259.36 S. Ahn, A new program in cooperative research between academia and industry in Korea involving Centers of Excellence, Technovation
optimizing description and generalizability, Educational Research 12 (1987) 14 19.47 A j. Berkhout, The Dynamic Role of Knowledge in Innovation.
and decision-making FTA is a generic label that groups a number of forward-looking methodologies used to better T Karel Haegeman is at the Institute for Prospective Technologicca Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit, Edificio
or the type of knowledge source (expertise-interaction/creativityeviddence (Eerola and Miles, 2008; Popper, 2008;
and of the new roles for innovation in the global knowledge economy. Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence
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