identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Victor van Rij Over the past decade, horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries.
I Dr Victor van Rij is at The netherlands Horizon scanning Team, Knowledge Directorate, Ministerie Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschappen, Postbus 16375/IPC 5200
and to identify gaps in the knowledge agenda (this definition has been derived from the UK Foresight Horizon scanning Centre (HSC) and Horizon scan Netherlands),
and relatioons knowledge gaps and potential hazardous or promising developments Characteristics of government horizon scanning An analysis of different horizon scanning exerciise and descriptions highlights the following characteristics:
Departmental Victor van Rij is senior advisor foresight of the Knowledge Directtorat of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science in The netherlands.
and to identify gaps in the knowledge agenda It is also looking ahead, beyond usual timescales (as far as we can see)
Identify knowledge gaps (relevant for resolving future problems or for exploiting potential opportunities). Identify possible inter-linkages (enhancers, inhibitoors multipliers) between future issues (from differren parts of the horizon) with a potentially major impact.
and connections domains+disciplines 7. Cluster descriptions 9. Knowledge and strategic questions per cluster 8. Essays per cluster 3 5 4 6 910 1
Report with recommendations for knowledge and strategic agenda Website Figure 2. Design of The netherlands horizon scan Source:
'and to create new provisions within all ministries (so-called knowledge chambers). The horizon scanning task will be maintained
and has been provisionally realloccate to the newly formed Knowledge Directorate of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science.
Horizon scan Report 2007, Towards a Future Oriented Policy and Knowledge Agenda. COS. Available from<http://www. horizonscan. nl/uploads/File/COS BINNENWERK%20engels 06 (1). pdf,
thus contributing most to the development of the EU knowledge economy. At the same time creativity is a key driver of growth
and competitiveness of the knowledge econommy In this context the creative content sector is expected to become a major source of nextgenerratio jobs across the world.
which will become key to competiitiv advantage in a knowledge-based society, causing disruptions in selected markets
and visioning, providing strategic forward-looking knowledge to policy-makers. However even methodollogie that have been developed to deal explicitly with a range of potential futures are reaching their limits in the face of the scope and pace of change in the creative content sector.
In other words, the methodological details were adjusste in‘real-time'depending on the knowledge generated in the course of the process.
as in our case, to generate knowledge and insights to feed directly into formulation of current-day policy options.
but to prepare knowledge that is relevant for decision making. Given the range of defined goals and measures of success,
and Table 2. Foresight impact dimensions Dimension Impact issue Raising knowledge Forming attitudes and opinions Initiating action Scientific and technological aspects Scientific assessment:
and knowledge systems that enable each other in pursuit of a common goal Nares Damrongchai obtained his MPHIL degree from the University of Cambridge, UK and a doctorate in engineering from Tokyo Institute of technology.
and knowledge systems that enable each other in pursuit of a common goal Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 43 The concept has been extended in the European union's Seventh Framework Program to the possibiliitie at the interface of micro nano systems and the living world.
and the need for tools to facilitate the integration of knowledge into the increasingly interdisciplinary development process.
Several approaches have been put forward for the collection of this type of knowledge. Hansson (2006) distinguishes two types of user-driven innovattio methods:
and refers to the integratiio of knowledge. The following section discusses two of these challenges,
Integration of knowledge: creating a synergy between users and technology The second challenge concerns the problem of integraatin the knowledge being gathered by multidiscipliinar teams,
using either user-or technologycenntre methodologies. Although it is crucial that the user insights generated find their way into the development process,
and knowledge in order to identify current and future mobile applications that might not only make a significant difference to consummers everyday lives,
the need for continnuou interaction with the user and the need for mechanisms to integrate the knowledge that is gatherre in the increasingly multidisciplinary developmeen process.
as a main promotional policy, to our knowledge, is unique in Europe. Our main hypothesis was that:
informatiiona imperfections, informational externalities due to knowledge spillovers, financial market failurre or shortages of highly qualified personnel (Nelsoon 1959;
To the best of our knowledge, it is unique in Europe as a main promotional policy. 2 Methods of evaluation of measures of technology policy Evaluating the outcomes of subsidized projects is difficult,
Secondly, due to a lack of information, potential knowledge spillovers are taken not into consideration (this also happens
To the best of our knowledge, it is unique in Europe as a main promotional policy Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 66 either matching approaches (as in this paper) or selecctio
and universities that provide cooperating firms with knowledge that is primarily of high technological value. This does not mean that higher subsidies cannot generate (additioonal economic success:
The political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies in Switzerland. Science and Public policy, 35 (4), 277 288.
The criteria identified as being important for foresight specialists to achieve effective policy engagement were deep knowledge in the relevant field, a‘roadmap'style of thinking
and lack of adequate analysis of the knowledge generated an illustraatio of the tension between the managed expertise of scientific processes,
Another tension is that between the ideal rational objecctiv stance, philosophically impossible but still a useful guide to the construction of reliable knowledge,
FTA can support the development of knowledge by providing, for example, insights on longer-term developments, the scope and opportunities for shaping futures,
These allow for knowledge to be created, exchanged and diffused. Weber, Cassingena Harper, Ko nno la and Carabias suggest that addressing the grand challenges requires a new kind of FTA.
and the ways in which scientific knowledge is diffused and used, are therefore critical issues. Keenan et al. report on the application of fta by the International council for science when consideerin its most appropriate role in this new situation.
Foresight seeks to provide a strategic perspective for the present, with knowledge of future possibilities, building commitment to and coordination on national or institutioona priorities.
knowledge and experience of the participants involved; stakeholders'decision-making culture and management styles. These are aspects in relation to
as they are absorbed usually as knowledge by those participating. From this paper's point of view, the target is always the best combination between stakeholders and decision-maker involvement and intangible generation
which focused on the knowledge required for a given exercise to achieve the desired outcomes is discussed in Section 5. Finally,
in a knowledge-based society, democratic governance must ensure that citizens are able to make an informed choice from the options made available to them by responsible scientific and technological progress.
and the production of knowledge are both keys to formulating recommendations. It is then amazing to frequently see,
and knowledge necessary to support the decision-making process, which needs further knowledge generation and interpretation of trends, perspectives and future possibilities.
knowledge about the human behavior which drives a competitive force, and in particular that of its management creed,
The expected result is the transformation of the accumulated knowledge in strategies and proposals, resultiin from discussion and commitment among key stakeholdders expanding the perception of strategic options among the decision-makers.
national and international legal and regulatory biosafety framewoork access to genetic resouurce and traditional knowledge; future of plant breeding and future breeder profile;
on one hand, balanced the knowledge related to the present and a number of relevant future possibilities, and, on the other hand, compared the internal and external views about the agency,
These authors have proposed a classification of methods and techniques by the type of approach (exploratory or normatiive) method (qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitattive or source of knowledge (creativity, expertise, interaction or evidence.
Developing Organisational Foresight in the Knowledge Economy, held Glasgow, Scotland, 11 3 july 2002. Cuhls, K. and Grupp, H. 2001)‘ Alemanha:
‘highly systemic'in the sense that the focus was on reshaping the division of labor and the interaction between producers and users of knowledge and innovation.
it could be argued that S&t spending by China's government spending has been focused more on generating knowledge than on utilizing it.
The Knowledge Innovation Program (KIP) launched in 1998 by the CAS is expected to result in a select group of research institutes
Braun, D. 2008)‘ Organising the political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies',Science and Public policy, 35: 227 39.
Lv, W. 2007)‘ Enhancing the basic role of knowledge innovattio in the innovation system',China Development Review, 9: 38 47.
Suttmeier, R. P.,Cao, C. and Simon, D. 2006)‘ Knowledge innovation and the Chinese Academy of Sciences',Science, 312/5770: 58 9. US Embassy Beijing.
and agricultural biotechnology innovation systems we find that even within the same nation different NSTISS reveal different dynamics, in terms of actors and networks, the application of technology and knowledge and institutions.
The technological innovation system uses a specific knowledge field to draw the boundary of an innovation system (Carlsson et al. 2002;
should have a set of specific knowledge bases, inputs and demands. A group of actors in the system carry out market and non-market actions for the creation, production and sale of the products.
Indeed, actors and networks, knowledge and technology, and institutions are the three blocks of a sectoral innovation system.
The technological innovation system is defined in the sense of a knowledge field which has developed globally. As speculated by Carlsson et al.
2002), within a particular knowledge field the actors, including the buyers and sellers, of a dynamic network interact in a specific economic or industrial arena
technology and knowledge, and institutions. However, because a different system approach uses different criteria to draw the boundary of an innovation system,
such as institutional actors, use the knowledge of a particular technological field to produce a set of particcula products.
diffuse and utilize the knowledge of a particular technologgica field to create, produce and sell a particular set of products.
as the three innovation systems, is composed of actors and networks, technology and knowledge, and institutions. The components of the system are shaped by national institutions.
and comprised of a broad range of knowledge fields. 1 The biotechnology developed before the post-genetic engineering era is defined in this paper as traditional biotechnology.
networks and knowledge base. Pharmaceutical technology was introduced originalll to Taiwan by Japan. In 1931, some Japanese pharmaceutical companies set up factories in Taiwan to produce pharmaceutical intermediaries and supply the demands of the Japanese army.
The knowledge base of all these firms was chemical engineerrin rather than biotechnology. Even if modern biotechnollog was developed in the USA in the 1970s,
Until 2000, knowledge transfer and collaboraatio between companies were minimal. Competition was the mainstream for the interactions between these companies (DCB 2003:
The knowledge accumulated about the functions of each herb was based on the records of traditional Chinese pharmacopooeias The products produced by the herbal factories were the herbal medicines
224 7). 3. 1. 2 Universities and the accumulation of knowledge. The main role of universities until the end of the 1980s was to train qualified pharmacists.
These Taiwanese pharmaciist introduced pharmaceutical knowledge from Japan to Taiwan. Later in the period 1949 66,
In fact, the main occasion for academics to practice their knowledge was to support the government in drawing up regulations in order to control the qualities of the pharmaceutiicals For example
whose knowledge base was chemical engineering rather than biotechnology (MOEA 2010). Policies of regulation, FDI and R&d were directed towards the pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation system.
since the knowledge accumulation of biopharmaceuticals in Taiwan was too weak to compete with developed countries,
Taiwan should fully activate its strong knowledge base of Chinese herbal medicines to take advantages in the pharmaceutical sector.
The knowledge about hybridization which had been accumulated by the Japanese scientists was developed then further by the Taiwanese experts, especially in rice research (Su 2004:
who only had limited only knowledge about cultivation. Their experience was fed seldom back to the ASS.
However, the introduction of modern biotechnology in the 1980s extensively changed the knowledge and technology used for seed innovation.
Through the flow of personneel knowledge of the traditional biotechnology of hybridizaatio was transferred between the university and the ASS.
and provide contrasting opportunities for the development of the knowledge. In the Taiwanese pharmaceutical biotechnoloog system the main knowledge base of both local SMES and MNCS was chemical engineering.
The system only adopted modern biotechnology and did not produce any opportunities for the development of traditional biotechnollogy Modern biotechnology was introduced only to the system after the 1980s
Modern biotechnology was integrated with the traditional Chinese knowledge of herbal medicine to produce new herbaceous medicines.
In contrast, in the agricultural biotechnology system both the public research organizations and private SMES adopted biotechnology as their main knowledge base.
Thus, appropriate RTDI policies which foster the development of NSTISS should cluster the network of actors, support the underlying logic of knowledge accumulaatio and exploitation in a particular technological field,
Notes 1. These knowledge fields include: DNA (the coding), proteins and molecules, cell and tissue culture and engineeering process biotechnology,
A rich knowledge of herbs was accumulated. The knowledge also spread to adjacent countries including Japan and Korea.
Compared with herbal medicine, the Chinese have used only Western pharmacology for a hundred years. The traditional Chinese herbal medicines were usually compound prescriptions.
Addressing grand challenges requires the pooling of different knowledge bases and, in particular, closer collaboration between the‘hard'and social sciences and humanities..
and the working of institutioons and their dynamic functions of experimentation and learning, knowledge development, knowledge diffusion,
It occurs mostly in firms that respond to expected market opportunities by combining different types of knowledge, capabilities, skills and resources (Hall and Rosenberg 2010.
safeguarding‘variety'in the innovation system is key given the uncertainties that follow from new combinations of knowledge, applications and markets.
Nurture knowledge development: this is considered to be the most basic function of innovation systems without which nothing else would happen.
but there are differren types of knowledge besides science and technology knowledge, including production, design and market knowledge.
The sources and locations of knowledge development are wide-ranging, and include R&d activities in the public and private sectors,
and design and production in firms..Promote knowledge diffusion: given the distributed nature of knowledge production, knowledge diffusion is an essential function of innovation systems.
Diffusion may be mediated through networks for example, between industry and academia or between firms in a business cluster but also commonly occurs through more market-based mechanisms, such as user producer interactions and supply chains.
The mobilisation of resources has important consequences for knowledge development activities. 4. Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges The special nature of the requirements of grand challenges to find effective solutions brings to the fore concepts such as transformative
FTA PROCESSES bring longerteer perspectives and broader knowledge bases into decision-making processes. By doing so, they place greater emphasis on holistic and multiple perspective approaches under
The informing role of FTA most closely relates to the innovation system functions of facilitating experimentatiio and learning, knowledge development,
FTA PROCESSES place a special emphasis on novelty, creativity and multi-disciplinarity in knowledge development, qualities that are needed
The knowledge developed under FTA helps to articulate visions and expectations which can form the framework under
research and innovation programmes Knowledge development Transformative shifts implied by solutions to grand challenges will need new knowledge as well as a new type of knowledge production.
New knowledge (including also non-technological knowledge) has to be developed on topics relevant to grand challenges among a distributed landscape of actors.
This implies a type of knowledge production close to the so-called‘mode 2'(Nowotny et al. 2003) acknowledging the distributed nature of knowledge,
The need for cross-disciplinary/departmental/national/sectoral coordination implies new channels for knowledge diffussio among actors that have worked traditionally apart Guide direction of search
this is especially important given the boundary-spanning nature of grand challenges Orienting European innovation systems. 145 knowledge
and other actors to use, broadening the knowledge base around which decisions are made, thereby resulting in better informed public policies
Experiment and learning Knowledge develop Direct search and selection Knowledge diffusion Market formation Develop, mobilise resources FTA informing role FTA structuring role FTA capacity building role Innovation system functions FTA roles Figure 2. Contributions of FTA roles
Orienting European innovation systems. 147 The Knowledge and Innovation communities (KICS) initiative introduced by the European Institute of Innovattio
They clearly highlight the inter-disciplinarity needed in the knowledge bases that have to be combined in searching for possible solutions
and priorities through knowledge development based on expert knowledge and by mobilising the resources availabbl in the actors already involved in the projects.
Especially in relation to knowledge productiion the role of FTA is seen to be important for encouraging the multi-disciplinarity needed both in terms of research focus as well as in the identification of policy implications given the interdependencies of grand challenges
and identify knowledge gaps (leading to new or reoriented skills) as well as to the identification of potential financial resources.
In its role in knowledge diffussion FTA can enable a range of communication 148. C. Cagnin et al. channels that allow cross-disciplinary coordination
and create solutions to situations or challenges at hand Knowledge development FTA, as a source of‘strategic intelligence'for policy and other actors, is itself a knowledge-creating activity.
It can for example, provide insights into longer-term developments, scope and opportunities for shaping futures,
In this way, FTA provides forums for knowledge to be exchanged and created. At the same time FTA can raise awareness and sensitise society towards sustainnabl solutions,
Current EU programmes and initiatives mainly exploit the informing role of FTA in knowledge development and in providing guidance for direction or prioritisation of research areas and themes.
Matt, M. and Llerena, P. eds) Innovation policy in a Knowledge Based Economy: Theories and Practises, pp. 17 40.
The new production of knowledge, Minerva, 41: 179 94. OECD and Eurostat. 2005) Oslo Manual:
Smith, K. 2000)‘ What is the knowledge economy? Knowledge-intensive industries and distributed knowledge bases',Paper prepared as part of the project‘Innovation policy in a knowledge-based economy'commissioned by the European commission.
Available at:<<http://www. druid. dk/uploads/tx picturedb/ds2000-123. pdf, >accessed August 2007. Stirling, A.,Geels, F.,Scrase,
Each type of transformation requires a dedicated response drawing on particular knowledge and competencies. Transformations involve a complex,
There is an emerging stream of FTA ACTIVITY geared to providing future-oriented knowledge for decision-making on a more continuous Figure 2. Modes of governance (modified from Thompson et al. 1990.
The institutionalisation of FTA provides continuity and permits the accumulation of knowledge and know-how in a single organisational unit.
and gives access to insider knowledge of the embedding organisation that allows them to bring their FTA insights fully to bear
Moreover, due to their stability, they can build up a stock of knowledge, including potential emergency plans for possible disruptions that may not be of immediate relevannce
As an organisational model, networks are complementary to FTA institutions and programmes/projects, interconnecctin FTA knowledge hubs and providing smaller organissation with limited FTA capacity access to a wider
pool of knowledge. In providing support on policy options and consequences in the face of disruptions, they have the potential to mobilise a distributed capacity in a flexible manner.
The need to handle increasingly global challennge requires accessing a broad spectrum of sources of knowledge for anticipating transformations as well as possible solutions.
In addition to access to new resources and knowledge, Ko nno la et al (2012a) consider that international networkiin
In general, parliamentarians need better access to knowledge about current and future developments in technology and society.
The executive branch of government has privileged usually access to this type of knowledge, even if the capacities to absorb it may be limited.
and the accumulation of FTA knowledge needed to translate advice into political and administrative decision-making.
Future intelligence units were expected increasingly to provide forward-looking knowledge for operational and R&d units rather than fulfilling an exploratory think-tank function for top-level management,
to ensure that the knowledge generated meets the needs and can be delivered in a timely manner on demand. 3. 2. 4 Observation 4:
An overview of user interests in knowledge seeking and use',Journal of Knowledge management, 2: 36 46.
identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge',Science and Public policy, 37:7 18. Warnke, P. 2011)‘ Implementing systemic RTI priorities Recent experience from Germany,
and the ways in which scientific knowledge is diffused and used, are therefore critical. Increasingly, such issues need to be framed at a global level,
and scientific knowledge is linked effectively to policy-making. This vision translates into a mission that sees ICSU working with strategic partners to plan and coordinate international research programmes that address major issues of relevance to both science and society.
and how science feeds back its knowledge to society especially at the policy level. The shape of these processes will also have implications for science education
How this will evolve in areas such as the relationship between knowledge-based and faith-based societies could have implications for the scientific process especially in the international science area.
e g. peer review and other forms of self regulation Proliferation of local solutions to societal problems that also utilise‘traditional knowledge'Fewer opportunities for curiosity-driven Research funding for science is on a relative decline Figure 1. Exploratory scenario
It was claimed also that the use of exploratory scenarios leads to minority views being given the same status as established scientific knowledge.
2011) Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global Scientific Collaboration in the 21st century. London: Royal Society. Schwartz, P. 1998) The Art of the Long View:
socio-technical transformation. 1. Introduction Since the 1960s, the results of R&d practices have increasinngl been approached as knowledge inputs in the construuctio of science and technology policies.
but instead they are approached as knowledge umbrellas that depict a large-scale strategy picture of a system.
This refers to a‘cross-over'knowledge that builds on understanding the interfaces between the layers of the roadmap
The knowledge required for building the roadmaps was gathered in a systematic process that combined literature scanning expert interviiew and an assessment workshop.
Innovation policy roadmapping. 183 4. 2 Outline of the transformation roadmap In this case, the roadmap knowledge was crystallized in a transformation roadmap (Fig. 3). The working vision for the green and intelligent buildings roadmap,
is designed to address country-specific issues Insufficient knowledge of similar national programmes in other countries Lack of budgetary flexibility Lack of mutual trust Source of funding does not encourage use of funds for transnatiiona activities Language
At the level of innovation clusters the recently established first knowledge and innovation communities (KICS) of the European Institute for Innovation and Technology (EIT) also face issues of governance, prioritisaatio and evaluation.
authorities and autonomous Mobility and exchange of scientists Programme cooperation and coordination Institutional cooperation Project cooperation Exchange of S&t information Innovation/knowledge clusters 2 3
4 5 6 7 Knowledge exchange Knowledge clustering Level of strategic approach to S&t cooperation Degree of networking Joint infrastructure investments No instruments no cooperation 0 1
regions or even industrial or local clusters compete for critical resourrces such as knowledge, human resources,
To this end, longer-term strategic requirements with a 10 5 year outlook are identified in a systematic way, building on knowledge about future aspects of animal disease develoopmen in Europe and the world,
in order to broaden the knowledge base in three areas: urban megatrends, urban networks and connectiivity and the socio-ecological sustainability of city systems.
and JPI Urban Europe Use of a pilot call to engage stakeholders at different levels in broadening knowledge base Engagement with other networks and organisatiion (e g.
Here, the establishment of stakeholder platforms for long-term stakeholder engagement in the process and knowledge and collaboration platforms for cumulating knowledge
Also (pilot) calls can be used to increase the accumulation of knowledge on future trends, scenarios and other relevant data (by dedicating a pilot call to research on such future-oriented issues)
thus making use of the collective knowledge of wider stakeholder groups. In particuular the temporal co-ordination dimension calls for safeguarding the existence of a foresight function
Access and accumulation of knowledge in support of transnational research programming. Informed programmmin decisions necessitate the comprehensive examination of the wider context,
and the development of joint knowledge repositories (see for instance the European foresight Platform). 34 Furthermoore foresight plays particularly a relevant role in learning on future developments in the areas where there is little
and the accumulation of foresight and other types of supporting knowledge through the shared repositories could benefit different types of activities in the realm of transnational research programming. 4. 3 Implications for research programming in Europe
Knowledge collected on pilots methodologies and understanding of transnational research programming needs to be accumulated, calling for institutionalised forms of knowledge repositories.
While choosing the perspective of embedding foresight in transnational programming rather than providing ad hoc support,
data and knowledge for linking various disciplines and for initiating new co-operations within the European research and innovaatio communities (with scientists from different disciplines and research areas, city representatives,
That is about raising the awareness of non-knowledge (areas beyond what we know we do not know).
Taking into account the plurality of perspectives on non-knowledge can serve as a basis on
which to establiis transparent and pluralistic processes for exploring scienttifi non-knowledge (Bo schen et al. 2010).
which they depend on participatory tools bringing together experts'knowledge (cf. Table 4). Table 5 evaluates the three combined approaches based on the criteria mentioone in Table 3. The SESTI experience of applying these methods (not necessarily as combined above) revealed that it is importaan to have several alternative methods
Any other info piece for second-round scanning (observation time depends on scanner) Experts'knowledge; literature;
In literature review based on documents selected for review based on experts'knowledge. In conferences through discussions with peers Existing strategies and relevant stakeholders Medium Medium High As reported/criticised in raw resources.
identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge',Science and Public policy, 37:7 18..(2010b)‘ Horizon scanning:
In‘t Veld, R. J. ed.)Knowledge Democracy: Consequences for Science, Politics, and Media, pp. 227 240.
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