-Straße 1, 1220 Vienna, Austria 2malta Council for Science and Technology, Villa Bighi, Bighi, Kalkara KKR 1320, Malta 3impetu Solutions, Vi'ctor
Increased mobility, the instantaneoou impact of events through social media and the socioculttura interconnections linking Europe to the rest of Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 153 165 doi:
Science and technology are also the basis of challenges involving the collective ability to respond to opportunities in frontier research.
The distinction between disrupptiv and recognised grand challenges referred to in the European Science Foundation report (European Science Foundation 2010) highlights the fact that areas of disruptiiv grand challenges can be exogenous
often science and technology priorities should be addressed in these. FTA along these lines was need in of updates at regular intervals of three to five years
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Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'Michael Keenan1,,*Paul Cutler2, 3, John Marks4, Richard Meylan2, 5, Carthage Smith2 and Emilia Koivisto2, 6 1directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, OECD,
and Honorary Research fellow, Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9pl, UK 2international Council for Science, 5 rue Auguste Vacquerie
, 75116 Paris, France 3present address: Division of Earth sciences, National science Foundation, 4201 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, Virginia 22230, USA 4kort Galgewater 16,2312 BR Leiden, Netherlands 5present address Royal
michael. keenan@oecd. org Over the coming decades, science will play a key role in society's response to emerging global‘grand challenges'.
'The agenda-setting, coordination and conduct of science, and the ways in which scientific knowledge is diffused
reflecting both the international nature of science itself and the scale of the challenges it seeks to address.
Foresight offers a means to explore these dimensions of science. The International council for science (ICSU) has been applying foresight as a central component of its strategic planning.
which has explored how two decades hence international collaboration in science could foster progress in science and address global challenges.
international science cooperation; scenarios; International council for science. 1. Introduction Responses to grand challenges, if they are to be effective,
will depend on science. Examples of grand challenges from climate change to increasing resource depletion emphasise the need for international, indeed, global responses.
In turn, the complexity of grand challenges and the need for cross-country responses point to the signifiican role of international cooperation in science.
and aligned in support of international cooperation in science, involving rule-setting and coordination. Existing international organissation and arenas have important parts to play in this respect
ICSU is a non-governmental organisation with a global membership of national scientific bodies Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 166 177 doi:
Hundreds of thousands of scientists are affiliated with ICSU via their professional organisations. Because of this, ICSU is uniquely able to bring together the intellectual resources of the international scientific community to explore complex global issues at the interface between different disciplines.
ICSU's long-term strategic vision is for a world where science is used for the benefit of all,
excellence in science is valued and scientific knowledge is linked effectively to policy-making. This vision translates into a mission that sees ICSU working with strategic partners to plan and coordinate international research programmes that address major issues of relevance to both science and society.
To this end a number of interdisciplinary bodies have been created, addressing various themes, including: global environmental change;
and is involved in a number of science for poliic activities as a representative of the global scientific community (e g.
The purpose of its current foresight exercise is to explore the potential development of international science over the next two decades in a changing economic, social, political and environmental context.
and mission of ICSU and guide long-term strategic choices aimed at strengthening internatioona science for the benefit of society.
It begins with some background on the past and current arrangements for international science cooperation before accounting for the various choices made in designiin
and the scope for using foresight to further international science cooperation in the future. 2. The past and the present of international science cooperation Before thinking about the futures of international science cooperation,
it is essential to appreciate something of the past and the present. In this section, a short‘potted'history of international science cooperation since the Second world war is provided,
followed by a snapshot of the current landscape. 2. 1 A short history of international science cooperation Large-scale international science cooperation really began after the Second world war
and was catalysed by a combination of factors including the postwar spirit of cooperation, easier air travel,
The creation of UNESCO meant that there was now an organisation with a specific remit to link with governments in the international science area.
Other science related organisations were also set up by the UN including the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the World Metrological Organisation (WMO.
promoting contacts between scientists and interchange with other laboratories and institutes. CGIAR grew out of the international response to widespread concerns that many developing countries would succumb to hunger.
Taking place at Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.'167 the height of the Cold war, it demonstrated that even during tense political times scientists from around the world could work together for the betterment of society.
It was unprecedented an initiative involving thousands of scientists across more than 60 countries. It provided major new scientific insights,
influenced inter-governmental policies and provided a prototype for subsequent internatioona research planning and coordination efforts by ICSU.
Research projects are submitted then for funding at the national level by individual (groups of) researchers. ICSU cosponsors all four prograamme
000 scientists and has produced four assessment reports since then. Another example of modern international research collaboration is the Human Genome Project (HGP),
Beyond these institutional and, in some respects, top-down examples of international science cooperation, the vast majority of international linkages have been initiated by individual scientists on an ad hoc basis. 2. 2 Contemporary international science cooperation
science is an international endeavour. The exchange of scientific information and sharing of ideas across borders have been essential to the progress of science.
The increasing ease of international exchange coupled with the recognition that many scientific problems from climate change to AIDS, are inherently international in nature,
Truly global science is an evolving and complex concept and there are just a few organisations involved in organising this space at present.
There are also a number of inter-governmental bodies based at the regional level that are working on international science issues.
Regional initiatives, particularly the development of a transnational European research area, are having a signifiican effect on international science cooperation (European commission 2008.
and structuring of science. Nevertheless, the vast majority of financial support for science continues to be at the national level.
The USA, Japan and Europe continue to dominate in terms of national investment and performance. Whilst several countries such as Brazil, China and India are making rapid progress (Royal Society 2011
There remain a large number of poorer countries where investment in science is negligible (UNESCO 2010.
These inequalities are reinforced by a net outflow of trained scientists from poorer to richer countries.
Funding for international science is more difficult to obtain than for national science. Nationally oriented research projects are often easier for politicians to justify to their taxpayers.
This is a particular challenge in times of economic constraint where countries look to science to address their immediate needs for national growth.
Related to this are issues around intellectual property regimes in different countries and restrictions on access to data for science.
These conditions mean that internatioona science is often reliant on corporations trusts, individuals and inter-governmental organisations for funding.
M. Keenan et al. interdisciplinary science that is needed to address complex global issues. The value of international research programmes,
This makes it more difficult to carry out major international science initiatives. Thus international science cooperation faces a spectrum of challenges and opportunities.
To address these, there is a need for institutional leadership and mechanisms for planning, coordination and funding that are respected by the science community,
Since its creation in 1931, ICSU has played an important role in facilitating major international science initiatives.
it commissioned a meta-analysis of the results of several existing national foresight exercises with the aim of identifying future priority areas for international science cooperation (Teixera et al. 2002.
the new exercise set out to focus on the exploration of possible futures of international science cooperation and the roles ICSU might play.
The exercise set out to map the long-term uncertainties of developments around international science cooperation with a view to building greater agility vis-a vis disruptive change.
The exercise was tasked also with developing a long-term vision for international science cooperation and the role ICSU would play in its achievement.
it was realised quickly that these objectives required a good understanndin of the wider context of international science cooperation
In particular, an appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of current international science cooperation arrangements would be needed,
Given ICSU's position in the internatiiona science landscape, it is not a passive observer.
It can help to shape improved international science cooperation arrangements. The scope of the exercise therefore oscillated between the narrower scope of ICSU's future organisational positioning and the future transformation of international science cooperation..
Target: While the exercise was meant primarily to inform ICSU's strategic plan and long-term vision, it was recognised from the outset that the various results generated would likely be useful to other organisations, particularly the ICSU members, in their own strategy processes..
'Acknowledging this highlighted the need for a multi-phase exercise, where the key drivers of change Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.
But this is too long for an exercise that is focused on organisational agility and a vision for international science cooperatiion Given the relative trade-offs,
Gather perspectiive on the key drivers influencing international science in the next 20 years (from individuals in ICSU's membership, bodies,
partners and other stakeholdders including young scientists, as well as from the literature)..Phase 2 april 2010 to March 2011:
During Phase 1, perspectives were gathered on potential drivers of international science over the next 20 years.
importance of the driver in shaping future developmeent over the next 20 years in international science. uncertainty around the direction and dynamics of the driver over the next 20 years and the impacts it is likely to have on international science
and to use them as a basis for developing contrasting explorrator scenarios of the future of international science cooperation.
and relevant with regard to the future of international science..All scenario spaces should plausibly be able to include positive and negative traits
The second selected axis was based on the‘science and society'driver. At one end of this axis
science acts fairly Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.'171 independently from society (e g. in terms of scientists setting the agenda and the lack of strong engagement of science and scientists in decision-making processes.
At the other end, science is engaged highly with society. These are referred to as‘detached'and‘engaged'science society relationships.
While this approach to scenario building has some drawbacks, e g. a certain rigidity that can sometimes stifle creativity,
it has the advantage of providing a clear structure that can be communicated easily to those not directly involved in the exercise.
The outcome of this will have implications for how international science engages and informs decision-makers. States and markets:
The future preferences of states on socioeconomic development models will impact on international science. The present range of options extends from market-based economies to stronger developmental state intervention to communism,
Science and society: The relationship between science and society is likely to have a significant impact on the future of international science.
This includes the ways in which science receives its mandate from society and how science feeds back its knowledge to society especially at the policy level.
The shape of these processes will also have implications for science education and how appreciation of and trust in science will evolve.
Private sector/military science: The funding and settings for international science will be influenced by the proportions of science conducted in nonacademic settings where market economy,
or national military or strategic advantage are dominant driving forces. Depending on the outcome of this, there could be a range of different impacts on international science, especially around security concerns.
Scientific integrity and self regulation: The concept of the integrity of the scientist is very important in international science
but this may be influenced by a range of external pressures, e g. political contexts, career incentive structures, etc.
There could also be challenges to the concept of self regulation in the light of demands for new forms of public accountability.
Spatial organisation/conduct of science: The spatial organisation of science is changing. The impact of emerging economies and possible new collaborations will see a changing international science landscape.
Such changes could have impacts on the approaches to science and the balance between national-scale versus international-scale science.
This is also likely to have impacts on those countries with limited scientific capacity at present. International collaborative research infrastructures:
The types of future international collaborative research infrastructures will have a significant impact on international science, presuming that there is an ongoing commitment to such structures at all.
How they will attract science investment in relation to national priorities and how committed countries will be to them are key factors in determining the strength of international science.
Epistemic organisation/conduct of science: The places where science research will take place may change. Universities are presently key players but consortia of researchers,
companies or new hybrid institutions may start to impact on this role. Within any of these structures the way science is organised could be different,
as could the evolving relationship between interdisciplinary and disciplinnar based science. Nature of the scientific record:
The last decade has seen significant changes in the nature of the scientific record. The move to open-access publishing is likely to have a number of impacts, in particular,
on how journals and the peer review process evolve. Related to this is the issue of quality control and who will be responsible for this.
The storage and accessing of large amounts of data that could be available to international scientists is another challenge.
Values, beliefs, ethics: Values and beliefs are already impacting on science. How this will evolve in areas such as the relationship between knowledge-based
and faith-based societies could have implications for the scientific process especially in the international science area.
Even within cultures the way science will go about handling ethical issues and addressing controversial areas of science in areas of high public interest will be significant for the relationship between science and society.
Science education and skills: The traditional path of science education could be challenged by the role of new organisations, business and communication technologies.
The pattern of nationally based organisations training students could change. The very nature of what students learn,
the balance of disciplinary and interdisciplinary courses and the importance of theoretical and applied experience could all evolve.
The career path for young researchers is another area where a number of options could develop
which would have impacts for international science. Scientific careers: The nature of the‘scientific career'could change.
This could be impacted on by changes to the epistemic organisation of science, the science education process and special organisation and conduct of science.
The traditional models of academic careers and ways of evaluating scientists may change in the light of changes to any of the above drivers.
Box 1. Key drivers of change affecting international science cooperation. 172. M. Keenan et al. drivers in an earlier step were mapped now into the four scenario spaces to create coherent storylines.
This involved a fair amount of trial-and-error and over the course of the months following the April 2010 workshop,
the exploratoor scenarios were redrafted several times. The CSPR played an important role in further sharpening the scenarrio at its September 2010 meeting, after
which they were distributed broadly for comment to ICSU regional committtees member organisations and other stakeholders.
offer four distinct, yet plausible images of the future‘world order'and of international science cooperation 20 years from now.
'Phase 3 saw the exercise shift its focus from preparing exploratory scenarios to the development of Engaged National Global Detached Science for sale in a global market place Globalism driven largely by multinationals An international division
of labour leads to intense specialisation of countries'economies Governments compete to host the R&d facilities of multinationals through large R&d investments Public science focused on basic research that multinationals are less likely to perform themselves Strong global networks
of scientists guided by disciplinary agendas Public trust in science is low as it is viewed as a supporting institution to global capital Brain drain to leading scientific nations Rise of aggressive nationalism World marked by intense national rivalries
for resources Efforts to address grand challenges through global collective action are weak Science largely detached from societal needs
and instead serves powerful national militaryindusstria complexes Less developed countries are left isolated from scientific endeavours Mobility of scientists has declined A divided and dangerous world
but also one characterised by exciting advances in science English declines as the lingua franca of science Triumph of globalism Reinvigorated global governance structures Active global citizenry that is science-savvy Global science
commons including less developed countries Science is a global stabilising agent Greater mobility of researchers Internationally agreed data standards Global strategic research fund combining 2%of each countries public research
spending Concept of scientific integrity expands to include wider societal role scientists expected to play Strong cooperation between natural
and social sciences Science supplying national needs General backlash against globalism Global governance of science at the intergoverrnmen level is fractured Regional
and South-South groupings flourish Science funding closely linked to specific national priorities High levels of societal engagement in science threaten some of its institutions,
e g. peer review and other forms of self regulation Proliferation of local solutions to societal problems that also utilise‘traditional knowledge'Fewer opportunities for curiosity-driven Research funding for science is on a relative decline Figure 1. Exploratory scenario
Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.'173 a more visionary‘success scenario'intended to help guide the long-term direction of ICSU.
The success scenario approach has been pioneered by researchers at the University of Manchester (see Miles (2005) for an overview)
and encouraged a more rigorous treatment of the key drivers of change that are likely to impact on the future state and directions of internatiiona cooperation in science over the longer term.
The resulting success scenario has a 20-year time horizon outlining the contours of a desirable state of international cooperation in science in 2031 and ICSU's role in its achievement.
and articulating the challenges to be faced by international science cooperation over the coming decades. The new plan also includes commitments to engage the ICSU memberrshi in continuing foresight analysis
there is every likelihood that the success scenario will be adopted formally as ICSU's long-term desirable vision for internatioona science
and visioning science in society and to reflect on the organisation and activities of the international scientific community.
Socioeconomic change is a major driver of science and it was considered that the exercise had captured this relationship rather well.
with the charge that the exercise says too little on how to support science in developing countries.
and that the exercise should have been bolder in mapping the‘possibility space'for international science.
Science Forum in Budapest in November 2011) the explorrator scenarios were picked quickly up and featured in an article in Nature (Macilwain 2011).
and the scope for using foresiigh to further international science cooperation. First, while the opportunist embedding of some of the exercise's activities in regular meetings was generally successful,
Another challenge concerns accommodating some of the regional differences in perspective that undoubbtedl exist on the subject of international science cooperratio for grand challenges.
The visionary success scenario outlines what would be happening in international science in 2031 if it was operating in an effective and successful way Science is thriving
and appreciated in all its diversity: By 2031 global science (natural sciences, social sciences, engineering and humanities) has played a significant role in helping to build a more sustainable world by working with society to address the major challenges associated with sustainable development.
Responding to societal challenges is a key part of research agendas: Strategic international cooperation in science is focused clearly on themes of a global nature.
An effective approach to addressing complex global challenges arose from the nexus between fundamental and applied science.
The boundary between discipline-focused work and interdisciplinary science has become artificial. Scientific capability and resources are a truly global asset:
Overall there is a more balanced global scientific effort as more countries perceive the benefits of investing in science.
Policy-making is more participatory and open with science making a valued contribution: New networks that are inclusive of governmment the private sector
Science successfully met the challenge of setting up more effective processes to ensure the consensus of the very best science was communicated to multiple stakeholders in a way that helps decision-making.
and funding science: Greater flexibility in international research cooperation is encouraged by the availability of flexible funding from multiple sources including public private partnerships, foundations and charitable donations.
The new approach is symbolised by a global grand challenges science programme in which each nation agrees to contribute a minimum of 1%of its public research budget
The responsible practice of science was recognised as vital to the integrity of science and education,
and training and mentoring for young scientists were adjusted to emphasise this. International principles for safeguarrdin scientific integrity have been adopted widely
Public appreciation and engagement have become integral to the way science operates: A higher level of science literacy has been achieved through a mix of measures around general education,
e g. teaching critical thinking and better appreciation of risk and uncertainty. A wide variety of electronic and visual medium are used now routinely to ensure the work of scientists is communicated effectively to public audiences.
This has been complemented by opportunities for interested citizens to routinely contribute to the research process. Scientific information is tailored to specific audiences,
whilst at the same time making the whole process of science more open and accessible. Communication is recognised as an essential element of a research career.
Box 2. Outline of 2031 success scenario for international science cooperation. Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.
'175 Finally, the exercise and ICSU's other uses of foresigght e g. in the Earth systems visioning exercise have demonstrated the feasibility of using foresight in support of international science cooperation activities.
In this regard, ICSU's systematic approach to international foresiigh is not unique, though the present authors have not found other examples that focus on mechanisms for internatiiona science collaboration.
For example, experiences with international foresight using scenarios have been described by Cagnin and Ko nno la (2011) for the domain of intelligent and sustainable manufacturing,
while the European Science Foundation (ESF) created a programme of Forward Looks in 2000 as an instrument for developing medium term perspectives on future directions of multi-disciplinary research in Europe. 4 In national settings,
These are all qualities that that can benefit international science cooperation as it seeks to address many of the grand challenges of our time.
The science base of ICSU has been expanded to include strong representation of health, engineering, humanities and social sciences.
ICSU actively promotes interdisciplinary global science. Promoting science into policy: ICSU has insisted that the outcomes of international science are communicated in a way that can be understood readily
and used by those working in policy. Furthermore, ICSU's research initiatives have been designed explicitly to feed into global assessment structures, e g.
IPCC, and where such assessment structures have not existed, ICSU has advocated for them. ICSU has developed also a‘think tank'role,
The universality of science is strengthened: ICSU has continued to expand the principle of universality to include responsibilities as well as freedoms.
Maintaining the integrity of science was recognised as being critical to building an effective relationship between science and society, especially around global issues.
The universality of science now includes reference to values and principles that underpin the relationship between science
and society and the responsibilities that scientists have with regard to this relationship. Outreach and education: ICSU recognised that its effectiveness in addressing societies concerns about complex international science could be answered partly by ensuring effective outreach in the context of each of its programmes.
In this context, ICSU now plays the central role in communicating the results of interdisciplinary global research to international fora.
ICSU has played also an instrumental role in developing education materials and activities for schools and has promoted actively the involvement of practicing scientists in science education.
Capacity building: Young researcher networks were recognised formally as ICSU associates, which helped them to attract financial support
and to ensure their longer-term sustainability. ICSU also launched a high-profile prize scheme in 2015 to recognise achievement by early career researchers working in interdisciplinary research and communication.
Furthermore, as part of its Initiative On earth System Sustainability, 2012 22, ICSU worked with funding agencies to encourage the development of internatioona courses targeted at developing the ability of young researchers to conduct interdisciplinary research.
Better linkages to people and data: ICSU used its global and regional structures to establish
and formed the basis for the development of many new international science networks, both North South and South South.
and effective governance, ICSU is recognised as a key player in international science and has been able to attract new funding.
Though the Forward Looks focus on science agendas, they do address issues of international collaboration. ICSU's lessons match the experiences of ESF.
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Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.
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