| Distributed intelligence (5) |  |
| Intelligence (119) | |
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| Distributed intelligence (5) | |
| Intelligence (119) | |
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In addition, the idea was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.
Ind. 341 (2001) 107 118.4 A. Tübke, K. Ducatel, J. P. Gavigan, P. Moncada-Paternò-Castello, Strategic policy intelligence:
current trends, the state of play and perspectives S&t intelligence for policy-making processes, Research report, IPTS/ESTO, Sevilla, 2001.5 R. Barré, Synthesis of technology foresight, in:
Strategic policy Intelligence: Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives, Research report, IPTS/ESTO, Sevilla, 2002.6 M. Keenan, D. Abbott, F. Scapolo, M. Zappacosta, Mapping foresight
Res. 181 (3)( 2007) 1488 1505.11 R. Barré, Synthesis of technology foresight, in strategic policy intelligence: current trends, the state of play and perspectives, in:
and R&d intelligence is separate from strategic management intelligence embodied in specialized technology consultancies but both cooperate in the context of alignment exercises.
), Strategic policy Intelligence: Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives, 2001, IPTS-ESTO Report EUR20137EN. 4 N. Brown, B. Rappert, et al.
44 H. H. Willis, Using Risk analysis to Inform Intelligence Analysis. RAND Infrastructure, Safety and Environment,,
and improved computer translation will allow more international foresight activities to build collective intelligence through participatory feedback systems far more complex than the current futures research methods.
risk analysis, and foresight approach into one anticipatory methodological concept of strategic policy intelligence. In principle, this concept could be applied in the study of different kinds of societal objects and objectives, related to national innovation system, regions, research programmes or societal actors, engaging private enterprises and public organizations.
A. Tübke, J. Gavigan, P. Moncada-Paterna-Castello, Strategic policy Intelligence: Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives, EUE 20137 EN, IPTS Technical Report Series, Brussels, 2001.28 K. Cuhls, Foresight in Germany, in:
and future-oriented‘intelligence'),'the organisation of dialogic spaces that are hijacked not solely'by special interests
The concept of distributed policy making and intelligence (Kuhlmann 2001; Smith 2002) draws our attention to various policy practices relying extensively on the knowledge, experience and competence of the different stakeholders concerned.
In Strategic policy intelligence: current trends, the state of play and perspectives, ed. A. Tübke, K. Ducatel, J. Gavigan and P. Moncada-Paternò-Castello.
All told, this wealth of information enables potent technological intelligence analyses. The second QTIP factor consists of expedited analyses using one form of btech miningq software.
The result of that would be suitable intelligence for senior technology managers to help determine next steps.
We know of a major corporation that reduced its time to provide a key set of competitive technological intelligence (CTI) analyses from 3 months to 3 days.
This paper explores the potential to expedite certain technological intelligence functions. btech A l. Porter/Technological forecasting
The manager who incorporates data-based intelligence into decision processes will be informed better and that will lead to competitive advantage.
group decision support 1. Introduction As an instrument of strategic policy intelligence (Smits and Kuhlmann 2004), foresight must often serve multiple objectives that are shaped by its policy context.
As instruments of strategic policy intelligence (Smits and Kuhlmann 2004), foresight exerciise such as Finnsight must respond to implicit
and merging empirical/analytical methods with stakeholder engagement processes 5. The positioning was aimed at perceived overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.
Strategic policy Intelligence: Current Trends, The State of Play and Perspectives, S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, European commission EUR 20137 EN, Sevilla, 2001.4 L. Georghiou, Third Generation Foresight Integrating
the Socioeconomic Dimension, Foresight Center of NISTEP, Tokyo, Japan, 2001.5 A. Havas, Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight programmes, For Society Transnational Foresight ERA NET, 2006.6 N. Borup, N
The role of scanning in open intelligence systems Kermit M. Patton*Scan Program, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United states Received 13 may 2004;
This article describes the scanning process as SRIC-BI practices it, the importance of open intelligence systems,
Open intelligence systems; SRIC-BI 1. The premise Predicting the future is impossible. The inherent unpredictability of technology development and commercialization processes, legal and regulatory developments,
Such monitoring of the external environment is the foundation of an open intelligence system. The open intelligence concept contrasts sharply with the more common concept of targeted intelligence or the understanding of business intelligence as an analytical function dealing with internal corporate data.
Most organizations fail to perform such external monitoring or open intelligence functions in a consistent or systematic way.
For 25 years, SRI International and subsequently SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) have used a scanning system to provide foresight capabilities
we'll need to depend on humans for scanning, particularly in the case of open intelligence systems.
Open intelligence systems need to be able to identify new patterns as well as track existing (continuously evolving) ones.
Organizations that implement systematic and ongoing processes such as open intelligence systems to tap the external business environment continually for signals of change increase their odds of adapting successfully.
Anticipation of intelligence (or knowledge) is a contribution to improve the knowledge base for the designing of policies.
A Guide to Futures research, Sage, Beverly hills, 1983.12 R. Barre',Synthesis of technology foresight, in Strategic policy Intelligence:
Strategic policy Intelligence: Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-20137-EN, Seville, 2001
, pp. 71 88.13 World Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford university Press, New york, 1987.14 Sustainable development: a co-evolutionary view Futures 20 (6)( 1988) 606 620.15 M. Castells, The Rise of the network society.
which are the subject of FTA analysis. It is typical for decision-making about S&t-related issues to require intelligence that extends well beyond
This reflectsawareness that it isimpossible foroneall-knowing policy organisation or level of government to grasp all of the intelligence that is needed to make sense of future challenges and opportunities.
This followed the much-publicised Ami (Ambient Intelligence) scenarios and roadmapping conducted for ISTAG (the Information society Technologies Advisory Group) of the EC 26.
http://www. innovateuk. org/assets/pdf/taylor%20report. pdf (accessed 29/07/09). 26 ISTAG, Scenarios for Ambient Intelligence in 2010, in:
/ESRC NANO07 TCM6-18918. pdf (accessed 29/07/09)).42 D. Wright, S. Gutwirth, M. Friedewald, E. Vildjiounaite, Y. Punie, Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence
safeguards in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI), Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville, September 28 29,2006 (available at:
FTA is also an agenda-setting process aimed at providing anticipatory intelligence as basis for decision making.
which created significant shocks to the global security, airport screening and intelligence systems and practices;
and coherence of the response of national governments to the emerging economic difficulties was evidence that appropriate anticipatory intelligence was in place and available.‘‘
In this way the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events is enhanced through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights.
Major findings were obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events,
Findings Major findings are obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory.
B Social intelligence regarding sustainability must significantly increase if lifestyles and consumption behaviour are to be changed in the desired direction.
As Johnston (2008) noted, the objective of the first of these seminars‘‘was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice between technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.''
but instead about what the world will look like after the implementation of certain emerging and future technologies (such as the vision of Ambient Intelligence or the prospect of human enhancement).
Predictive policing constitutes the next step in intelligence-led policing (ILP) 16, which encourages the use of criminal intelligence to support collaborative, multijurisdictional approaches to crime prevention,
while emphasizing the role of analysis in tactical and strategic planning (Beck, 2009). Based on comprehensive computer statistics, technology has allowed the law enforcement community to rapidly identify
enabling officers to focus their efforts in problem areas, armed with real-time information, accurate intelligence, rapid deployment of resources, individual accountability,
Based on data mining techniques, intelligence-based tactics and information communication strategies, predictive policing demonstrates that Law,
The SWAMI project (Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence) aimed to identify and analyse the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical issues related to identity,
but not yet deployed Ambient Intelligence (Ami) environment. See Wright et al. 2008). ) 12. The FIDIS project (Future of Identity in the Information society) aimed to shape the requirements for the future management of identity in the European Information society (EIS)
For an overview of the origins of intelligence-led policing, together with a detailed analysis of its main concepts,
Ratcliffe, J. 2008), Intelligence-led Policing, Willan, Cullompton. Saritas, O. 2011),‘Systemic foresight methodology'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.
Tu bke, A.,Ducatel, K.,Gavigan, J. P. and Moncada, P. Eds)( 2001), Strategic policy Intelligence:
Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives, S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, available at: http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/eur20137en. pdf Tuomi,
Wright, D.,Gutwirth, S.,Friedewald, M.,Vildjiounaite, E. and Punie, Y. Eds)( 2008), Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence, Springer, Dordrecht.
and technology (including biotechnology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, genetics and genomics, digital environments, ambient intelligence), data protection and privacy law, intellectual property, philosophy of law and legal theory.
this last edition was responding timely to the growing demand for forward-looking intelligence in times of crisis and uncertainty,
improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptiiv events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions;
The papers presented in this special issue address the above issues by exploring from different angles the growing demand for forward-looking intelligence in times of crisis and uncertainty,
'when computer‘intelligence'or at least computer power, may exceed the capabilities of the human brain,
Philips Design and Philips Research have developed jointly the‘Ambient Intelligence'vision, which means an‘intelligent home environment'that utilises a wide range of interconnected
we devise a means to help extract intelligence on key technology components and functions, major stakeholders,
In our endeavour to grapple with this challenging situation, we seek to provide usable intelligence on the developmental trajectory of a target NEST
What has been lacking is a systematic way of compiling this intelligence on a given NEST regarding the development pathway
and AIST, only 4. Examination of the research emphases of such leading players can provide intelligence on where the field is heading.
and create a framework for drawing out the intelligence held by the experts in the workshop,
and technology information to generate and visualise intelligence on emerging technologies. Lu Huang is a faculty member in the School of management and Economics, Beijing Institute of technology.
Therefore, many countries not only use foresight as a tool to improve anticipatory intelligence but also use it as a priority-setting tool.
Also, survey results of Delphi topics are collective intelligence from the expert interaction of scanned countries
demonstration of the future technology trajectory and intelligence in different level of technology scope is possible.
Improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions.
but also monitoring and intelligence, matrices (analogies), modelling, and a hint of roadmapping. More importantly, we suggest that TLC would be complemented by informal
There are many indications that the visual inspiration deployed throughout the INFU project for generating anticipatory intelligence was crucial for stretching the imagination beyond established pathways
the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name
'the supply of anticipatory knowledge or‘intelligence, 'such as the dynamics of change, future challenges, risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the current system, visions for change,
During her career she was involved also in different prospective studies to gather anticipatory intelligence in specific policy fields.
One approach that may be effective at enabling the desired inclusive knowledge creation is to use the future as a catalyst for precipitating the collective intelligence of users and stakeholders 10.
user profiles and trends were explored in order to collect information and intelligence. This desk research was combined with an expert consultation round (N=10) and a limited number of user interviews.
In both studies, information and intelligence concerning real experiences, practices and visions from a user perspective served as starting points.
Such approaches can help to collect anticipatory intelligence, e g.,, through the identification of future innovation opportunities or threats and through the detection of explicit as well as more latent future needs.
This intelligence can than serve as relevant input for decision making and strategic planning within the innovation trajectory.
S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 57 intelligence systems, direction setting, priority setting, strategy formulation, marketing, organisational change,
Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence
safeguaard in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI. Paper presennte at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Strateegi Intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnson, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds..
He has coordiinate a project on EPIS and several studies on ambient intelligence for the European commission.
In order to achieve our objective of delivering forwaardlooking intelligence on the future evolution of the creative content industries,
He is a director of the Intelligence Teaching and Research Academic Network, a global intelligence netwoork and a board member of the Canadian Association of Security and Intelligence Studies.
and analyze weak signals that enable actors to‘foresee'changes ahead Facilitate better understanding of potentially disruptive change Provide anticipatory intelligence about the systems
but participants consistenntl stated that one needs a local sounding board that can be aligned with the policy needs/capacities, through providing training, intelligence and policy ideas relevant to future challenges;(
and they proviid a steady source of new ideas, intelligence and international foresight connections. Applying the critical success factors to Canada's foresight program Our studies have identified eight critical success factoors The strength of any model is its ability to assist
M. Boden et al. are also internal drivers for the emergence of novel forms of future intelligence
This also helps to create the environment for an innovative dialogue to be established, perhaps one of the most imporrtan outcomes of any collective intelligence-based process.
it is vital to apply collective intelligence procedures, to achieve high levels of common understanding about future possibilities
Glenn, J. C. 2010)‘ Collective Intelligence: one of the next big things'.'In: Wagner, C. G. ed.)Worldfuture 2010:
The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations.
i e. configurations of different elements required to deliver forward-looking intelligence in support of decision-making. FTA systems cover three levels of elements and the interdependencies between them
and international level and are compounded by weak collaborative links between these entities in sharing information (anticipatory intelligence and early warning),
In the case of parliamentary TA, the argument in favour of dedicated future intelligence can be made in a very straightforward manner.
Future intelligence units were expected increasingly to provide forward-looking knowledge for operational and R&d units rather than fulfilling an exploratory think-tank function for top-level management,
This has led to a renewed interest in the institutionaalisatio of forward-looking intelligence, to ensure that the knowledge generated meets the needs
Conducting bottom-up consultations or launching a (pilot) call aimed at gathering more anticipatory intelligence are ways to provide different policy levels with rich information about the interests of the stakeholders
In the Urban Europe case, an example of modularity is the preparation of a pilot call to collect anticipatory intelligence,
where a pilot call is planned to collect additional intelligence on future trends and scenarrio and support the construction of stakeholder communities and platforms.
It also has to be kept in mind that human intelligence either as a collective or of single experts is a valuable necessity, especially for the alerting function of horizon scanning.
For the more creative function it is necessary to realise that the shaping of emerging issues is a social activity where foresight intelligence is shaped (re by the perceptions,
the National Intelligence Council in the USA; and the OECD Futures Programme. Methodological advances have been pursued, for instance, in the Framework programme 7 Blue sky Foresight projects on emerging issues that shape European science and technoloog (Amanatidou et al. 2012.
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