| Emerging irreversibility (47) |  |
| Irreversibilities (23) | |
Emerging irreversibilities; Strategy support system; Constructive technology assessmentavailable online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Corresponding author.
and looks at sociotechhnica paths as emerging as outcomes of actor alignments within and across multilevels. 13 Researchers working with the concept of socio-technical paths have recently taken up the notion of emerging irreversibilities.
Increasing alignment and entanglement in the concept of socio-technical paths can be linked to emerging irreversibilities 2, 41,44 48.
Emerging irreversibilities are punctuations in the evolution of a technological field, which both guide and drive it.
The concept of emerging irreversibilities combines emerging structure (as in path dependency literature) with agency (as in path creation literature) by looking at indicators of alignment
the patchwork of emerging irreversibilities become part of the affordance structure that shapes ongoing dynamics within the socio-technical path.
Along with the MPM-1 it was important to insert details of affordance structures and their co-evolution with emerging irreversibilities
Through analysis of socio-technical scenarios, emerging paths and emerging irreversibilities in the field of research can be anticipated
Human choice and climate change, vol. 2, Batelle Press, Columbus, 1998.47 R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente, Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies:
. K. R. Robinson, The use of the path concept and emerging irreversibilities in the analysis and modulation of nanotechnologies, EIASM Workshop on organising paths paths of organising, Berlin, November 2006, pp. 3 4
emerging irreversibilities facilitate specific technological paths making it easier to act and interact whilst constraining others making it more difficult to do something else.
Emerging irreversibilities can manifest in a number of forms. Entanglements such as sunk investments (and the anticipations on which investments are based)
Emerging irreversibilities are a general feature of social life and the sociological concept of institutionalization captures a large part of what happens.
This is possible because there are emerging irreversibilities in ongoing socio-technical developments, based on shared agendas, mutual dependencies and network ties there is an endogenous future 11.
A continuation of the situation given in Fig. 3 becoming an emerging irreversibility (not quite path dependency but a situation becoming increasingly entrenched of a patchwork of soft law options.
and based on expectations analysis and the concept of emerging irreversibilities, show how actors interactions and reactions would co-evolve with the broader IC+landscape. 6. 1. A new member to the socio-technical scenario family
Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes Rutger O. van Merkerk T, Harro van Lente 1 Department of Innovation studies, Utrecht University, P o box 80125,3508 TC, Utrecht, The netherlands
Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain
To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes.
and we employ it in our case study. We will show that it is possible to trace emerging irreversibilities for a specific application of nanotubes (Section 3). We will conclude by placing our contribution in a historical perspective of technology assessment
tracing emerging irreversibilities The basic claim is that a contribution to the understanding of the emergence of technological paths can be expected by understanding the role of emerging irreversibilities in technological development.
Emerging irreversibilities, therefore, are an indication and a driving force for the emergence of technological paths i e. some stabilisation is taking place.
A definition of emerging irreversibilities can be as follows: Emerging irreversibilities make it more difficult (or less easy) for actors to do something else (or easier to do something.
As a rule in emerging technologies, the stakes and the expectations are high for various actors. At the same time, the situation is very fluid,
and decisions taken earlier 6. These emerging irreversibilities reduce the complexity of the situation 7. How do emerging irreversibilities affect the actors operating in the field?
Therefore, emerging irreversibilities are constraining. On the other hand, when actors try to achieve things in line with the irreversibility,
and this refers to the enabling character of emerging irreversibilities. The emerging irreversibility can be weak or strong,
or, and this is something different, can be perceived as weak or strong. This perception of irreversibility (bwe cannot achieve this due to...
For instance, the growing attention for a certain subject is an indicator for an emerging irreversibility. Fig. 1 shows the growing attention in journals for a certain topic and indicates that the term dnanotubest was used increasingly in the titles of scientific articles (extracted from the Picarta database.
and routines of researchers and has shaped expectations of a new audience. 3 A second example of emerging irreversibilities are the collective roadmaps,
and this is exactly what indicates an emerging irreversibility. The question, then, is how to trace emerging irreversibilities?
We will focus on two ingredients of technological change that are especially important in the early stages:(
as indicators of emerging irreversibilities. R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1097 technological field, with its dedicated journals, conferences and communities.
Subsequently, from these findings emerging irreversibilities can be derived. These steps make up the method we employ in this paper to perform the case study. These steps are elaborated on in Section 3. The case we discuss in the next section deals with nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
) 3. 3. Tracing emerging irreversibilities Based on the evidence on the dynamics of expectations and agenda building processes as presented in the previous two paragraphs, we will now present main findings for each of the different cells
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1106 These insights and empirical findings give the opportunity to trace emerging irreversibilities
deposition), the prototype and the proof of compatibility brought to the field are emerging irreversibilities. These developments showed the academic
and the collaboration with ASML indicate the emerging irreversibility that Nantero has become a central player in the realisation of highly integrated nonvolatile memories.
This leads to the emerging irreversibility that more groups work on subjects directly related to the realisation of these promising options.
This at the societal level held discourse is marked as an emerging irreversibility. Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Societal discourse on nanotubes Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Societal discourse on nanotubes Nanotubes in electronic devices Recognition of a specific set of promising applications Nanotubes
Nanotubes in electronic devices More research groups work on similar problems related to nanotube applications Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Fig. 8. Emerging irreversibilities located within the three-level framework.
By applying the framework dynamically it was possible to identify emerging irreversibilities that directly relate to the case.
We think the tracing of emerging irreversibilities is an important next step in the development of TA,
and help to trace emerging irreversibilities in the early phases of technological development. Acknowledgements The authors of this paper would like to thank Arie Rip, Ruud Smits, Ulrich Fiedeler and Nik Brown for their valuable comments.
Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72, no. 9: 1094 112.
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