In addition the conference aims to debate the use of horizon scanning as a process that enables policy to explore actively emerging challenges
At European level, strategic policy orientation takes place, firstly in the context of the process of elaboration of the EU research budget, mainly the framework programme,
FP programmes priorities elaboration process, FP management ERA NETS, JITIS, ETP, ERC...Sectoral‘alliances'(for example SET-Plan members) Performing:
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.9 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
No foresight function can operate with confidence without a disciplined process for spotting new patterns of change
The coming together of experts from a variety of technical and scientific domains as well as from a variety of business-process arenas (including research, marketing, management,
Dorothy Leonard-Barton, in K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1084 her Wellsprings of Knowledge 5, maintains that the process of introducing external streams
and for nurturing a futures orientation more broadly in an organization. 3. The process The scanning process is necessarily a continuous one.
Although our description must begin with a certain point in the process, the process operates continuously as it has at SRI International and SRIC-BI for the past 25 years.
Various parts of the process can occur simultaneously and in concert with each other. The constant surveillance of the external environment on the part of scanners
the rhythm of monthly meetings to discuss new data points, and the documentation of findings for management are all part of the normal, ongoing cycles of the scanning process.
because participants know that the process works best if participants value each other's contributions regardless of rank in the organization.
the filtering process that identifies valuable ideas and knowledge for an organization can begin in earnest.
The SRIC-BI process taps:!Researchers and analysts! Technology monitors! Strategy consultants! Principal consultants! Marketing and sales staff.
The process also provides a tonic against the entrainment of thinking that discourages innovation and adaptation.
and longer-term benefits accurately is important to a fair trial of the process within a company.!
Selection of appropriate personality types for participation in the process is the most important success factor in implementing a Scan process.!
To sustain the process beyond 6 months requires a strong commitment from the organization to make the process work
No foresight function can operate with confidence without a disciplined process for spotting new patterns of change
since 1978 and has managed the Scan process since 1991. Patton is available at kpatton@sric-bi. com. More information about SRIC-BI's Scan program is available at www. sric-bi. com. K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005
where the openness extends through wider stakeholder involvement, a broad thematic perspective, an ongoing process, and a sensitivity to disruptive trends.
In dealing with priorities it is difficult to separate the output from either the process that generates it or from the process by
or may itself be the result of a process. The process is typically a broader sociopolitical interaction of supply side technology
or science push with demand side Pull in an unstructured process the various interest groups press their case
and by whatever decision process is agreed a list is arrived at. Often the process of list generation is interactive with the later stage of resource allocation.
In the realm of foresight, the process of list generation is taken over by the foresight process itself.
Using some combination of foresight methods ideas are generated and filtered until a list exists that may be subject to prioritisation.
Normally the full appellation of foresight would be reserved for a process that went beyond this to involve a systematic consideration of socioeconomic and technical drivers
and a process of participation or consultation with either external experts or extending to broader stakeholders.
or scoring process (raising of course the issue of who is empowered to vote or assign scores or weightings).
This paper also recommended that that the output from the prioritisation process should provide strategic advice about how to change the future rather than just a simple list of priorities for expenditure,
This process could be seen as analogous to the emergence of technology platforms in industry-led public programmes.
Estonia and Malta) with the explicit aim of the eforesee project as being‘‘to examine the potential role of foresight in dealing with the structural changes to the economy that accompany the accession process,
and the participants and operators of foresight exercises who confront the realities of the need for structural change and a process-oriented approach.
Rollwagen et al. describe this process in Deutsche bank which they summarise as‘‘Foresight explores and assesses business opportunities as well as upcoming strategic,
This thinking was also the basis of the‘‘open innovation''concept in that it recognises centrally that innovation is a process of interaction between firms
i) Procurers at the start of the process are advised to prepare the tender procedure properly and to focus on the various possibilities
Known as the market survey or technical dialogue, this stage takes place priori to the procurement process.
Paper Presented at the UNIDO Technology foresight Summit, September, Budapest, 2007.11 T. L. Saaty, The Analytical Hierarchy Process, Mcgraw hill, New york, 1980.12 Office of Science and Technology and PREST
instead, to the process-related aspects of the project, for instance responding to a question on how the outcomes were achieved and by
This means that special attention must be paid to the organisation of the process and to the appropriate use of formal tools and procedures.
Furthermore, those in charge of the foresight process are likely to benefit from the sharp definition of their role and approach in the management of the process.
This makes it easier to design the process in a coherent way and to communicate the responsibilities of different stakeholders.
Fixed management can be characterised as centralised approach in which co-ordinators fix the scope and methods of the project at the outset and control the process,
Autonomous management, in turn, refers to the process intermediated by the co-ordinators, who facilitate autonomous
and many kinds of stakeholders are invited to participate in the process. Exclusive stakeholder engagement means that stakeholder participation is not extensive
and debated during the process. Fixed The overall design of the process was determined already when planning the project.
The model and modelling techniques in use guided the data gathering of the system analysis part. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of roadmaps and scenarios.
Extensive The participation was open for research institutes industry, associations and public organisations of the five Nordic countries.
Consensual This process aims to provide new evidence and thinking on strategic trends on specific risks highlighting significant defence and security implications.
Fixed The procedure was fixed at the beginning of the process. It applies trend analysis with a time-horizon of 30 years.
Exclusive Process was mainly small expert group work. Extensive Ideas were exposed in conferences and a survey was launched to opinion-formers leaders in business, government, media, NGOS and academia.
Autonomous The overall process was based on workshops. Creative workshop discussions. Extensive The process involved a network of security stakeholders.
These were coming from different government departments, private companies, and research organisations. Exclusive Only invited participants. Generation of innovation ideas in Finnish Foresight Forumf 20 Informative Identification of future developments in nutrigenomics,(ii) health care and social services and (iii) services for the provision of personal experiences.
and social and economic needs analysis. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of scenarios and social and economic needs.
diverse and informative and diverse and instrumental)( Fig. 1). In parallel, the projects can also be positioned in view of process oriented dimensions.
Furtheron, if the coordinate systemof Fig. 2 ispositionedtoeachquadrant of Fig. 1, the foresightprojects canbepositionedin the coordinates to provide detailed information on the nature of the outcomes and process of each project (Fig. 3). Hence
For foresight activities on emerging issues that are not yet proven to be of high policy importance it may be difficult to engage policy-makers in the process.
but they were meant not as such to engage policy-makers in the process. In practice, the technology foresight in Korea and China has borrowed lots of experiences from technology foresight projects in Japan. 3. 3. Priorities foresight (consensual perspectives
The process assisted the new Public security Technical Programme (PSTP) of the Canadian office of the National science Advisor (ONSA.
which meant that also competitive and delicate issue could be addressed alreadyduring the process. The second project identifiedwas a foresightprocess attachedtofinnish Foresight Forum, whichengageddifferent stakeholder groups, encouragedthemtosubmit ideas on prospective innovations,
This is almost a natural function or characteristic of any foresight project that stems from the process itself,
Foresight influences all participants in the process as well as their networks. Furthermore, the outputs are reused often''by actors not considered in the design phase.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.7 T. Ko nno la, T. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari
and quite often non-governmental organisation and civil society stakeholders 1. FTA, especially in the form of Foresight programmes, has come to be applied in the form of a mutual learning process,
nevertheless very much a process that involves finding, deploying, using and fusing and, yes, even creating knowledge.
AHP=analytic hierarchy process; ANP=analytic network process; MCA=multiple criteria analysis. 5 Thus the likely incidence of disease following a radioactive leak of a specific amount can be estimated on the basis of laboratory research and epidemiology;
the likelihood of nuclear accidents is another matter altogether, even if we can identify many factors that make this more or less probable in given circumstances.
Weick's influential sensemaking in organisations 32 also outlines a three-step process. In the original formulation this is not specific to FTA,
in addition to standard project management methods, approaches needed for the selection, recruitment and mobilisation of participants in the process.
Enlisting those involved in the process in action: the aim is embed to the knowledge that has been generated in the programme into theirownorganisations and practices.
or influential members from key organisations, engaged in the FTA PROCESS means that they can develop a much deeper understanding of the process itself,
these agents engage in a process of comparison and modelling they can determine to what extent each is interpreting given material in the same way,
which thus called for careful design of the process and the tools and techniques it involved.
The SECI framework portrays the knowledge cycle of organisational learning as a dynamic interaction process.
we might need to think of any large-scale FTA ACTIVITY as likely to involve several intertwined SECI processes that go iteratively through the various transformation phases in a spiral-like process.
The process usually involves much dialogue, assisted by facilitators with‘‘scripts''(instructions and tasks) and with use of such instruments as whiteboards, flip charts, presentation graphics,
there will typically be a design process, to: identify participants for the scenario workshop it is vital to include the right range of interests, knowledge and expertise,
on foresight process and results Conference papers Project website Fig. 2. Different foresight elements in a dynamic process of shared knowledge creation, a SECI perspective.
or been in some way close to the workshop process. As discussed earlier, they will have much deeper knowledge of the underlying knowledge base,
10 When it comes to drivers and shapers of any KM process, it is inescapable that new IT,
11 For an overview of the engagement process, see Rogers-Hayden and Pidgeon 39; the main report was Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering 27;
and to support reflection on and learning from the process. If this posit materialises, FTA may be expected to be transformed in the coming years.
According to Sheng 9, governance is the process of decision making and the process by which decisions are implemented
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 281 As a counter-argument, Olsen 11 suggests that the process of governance may not always produce a precise and stable policy outcome.
As a consequence, the social construction of sustainable development becomes a process ofmanaging multidimensional social conflicts embedded in the six dimensions for sustainability as articulated systems:
and that, learning is the most important process. It is assumed also that learning is an interactive
and socially embedded process that cannot be understood without taking into consideration its institutional and cultural context.
and regulation process in a number of areas including food safety and environmental standards. The breadth and influence of those attempts have gone beyond national borders
and process contribute to governance modes that are more responsive to risk society perceptions, values and apprehensions.
and process contribute to such governance modes? The conditions for democratic governance of technology and innovation need to be acknowledged
In contrast innovation is the widespread use of an artefact, a social process in the widest sense,
FTA is also an agenda-setting process aimed at providing anticipatory intelligence as basis for decision making.
loss of privacy Global food supply shortage Integration process of Asia and Africa Technologies out of control Changes in the gravity of the earth O. Saritas,
there needs to be a clear link between the foresight (topic and process) and the government's policy agenda''.
Taking the participatory aspect further and also incorporating citizens in the process could increase the scope of different views
In the meantime, it can be observed that more qualitative and discursive methods are stipulated by actors in the process or proposed by the project leaders.
the process of reflection and systematisation might also improve the knowledge of known unknowns. However, these are rather side effects that do not emanate from the main purpose of the methodology.
In general, several tools are combined in a scenario process (workshops, CBA, trend analyses, models, Delphi, roadmaps and others.
It is not possible to illustrate the long and complex discussion process which accompanied the planning.
But we will focus here on some examples related to the methods used and the levels in uncertainties in the process.
Limitations of models and other quantitative approaches have to be discussed in relation to the data that is included in the process.
and not only is it difficult to get out of that‘‘thought channelling''process, but one is usually not even aware that thoughts are being channelled.
For example, emergence is a process of change and embracing it can mean choosing to respond, continuously, to that change, sympathetically and synergistically rather than a controlling, combative style:
and outcomes (futures) resulting from a change process, rather than working with (in) interactions of the systems components itself.
Table III shows how promoting variation can be applied in practice at each stage of the simplified policy making process:
and non-governmental organisations (NGOS) are consulted during this process. In 2008-2009 The Finnish Prime minister's Office coordinated the construction of the government foresight report on climate and energy policy (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
Before FFRC was invited to facilitate the scenario process, the Prime minister's Office had identified already the desired goal for the year 2050:
and some of them were challenged during the scenario process. Unless otherwise stated in the depiction of the scenarios introduced in this paper
Methodology The scenario process was carried out as a concise Delphi process which consisted of two rounds of web questionnaires and of two futures workshops,
The Delphi process was adopted to VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 305 provide a basis for a group communication process,
Together these four elements formed an integral process where each stage produced a deeper understanding of different socio-technical interconnections that affect the way the future unfolds,
Table I presents the progress of the process in a concise form. The invitations to answer the Delphi questionnaires were sent to the entire expert panellists'group (n 140.
I Progress of the scenario process Phase Time Method Goal Material gathering and final design of the study September 2008 Literary review,
online survey targeted for expert group (with Webropol survey software) Inviting the expert group to the process
ACTVOD futures process Building alternative scenarios that all fulfil the two-degree target 2nd Delphi round November 2008 Delphi:
what actions and which actors play key roles After this round the preliminary versions of the result of the scenario process,
and specifying the four designed scenarios Final report December 2008 Final report in electronic format Report gathering together the results of the process:
which is a process of predicting the future on the basis of current trend analysis,
The backcasting process can be divided roughly into two basic phases. First a desirable future end state is imagined and visualised, not as a continuation of present trends,
A recent current in backcasting theory and practices has been adding participatory elements in the backasting process.
First round of Delphi questionnaire The process was kicked off with the first round of a Delphi questionnaire.
A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.
2011 for those involved in the foresight report work to discuss retrospectively the process and reflect on the impacts of the foresight report.
The scenario team had collected a very impressive and insightful group of people to act as expert panellists for the Delphi and the scenario process to balance out the time constraints.
It is interesting to note that the results produced in the FFRC's process were altered slightly as they were presented in the final publication by the Prime minister's Office.
Taking the participatory aspect further and also incorporating citizens in the process could increase the scope of different views
Emergence is the process or event of something coming into existence. For technological development this notion then relates to the very early stages of technological development.
In this seemingly chaotic process it is important to look for the first signs that appear and indicate emergence.
The fact that these roadmaps are made is an indication that actors involved in this process link up to reach a common goal.
when both are charged electrically (electromechanical process). The nanotubes will then stay in this position due to the Van der waals forces. 11 These forces cause the nanotubes to remain their position,
The reason for this process is that hard drives are too slow to directly run programs from
and launch a transparent global process for evaluating the socioeconnomic health and environmental implications of the technology.
This process can also be observed in the development of nonvolatile memories. Typical problems addressed here were
This led to the recognition of a specific set of promising applications (the same process happens at the market side,
urban planning has become more of an action-oriented process with short and medium-term horizons.
whether it is convenient and feasible to recover these tools for the sake of our cities. 2. The standard urban planning process
cultural and socioeconomic contexts, there is a standard process which exemplifies the procedures followed in most countries
The value chain is kept under surveillance by a continuous feedback process. The second set is composed of horizontal elements that provide integral support for all the operational procedures of the planning value chain.
Since there are solid arguments for raising futures studies to a relevant position within the urban planning process,
future intelligence gathering and vision-building process aimed at present-day decision making and mobilising joint initiatives in the urban and territorial realm.
With this aim in mind, an approach is presented hereby to link foresight tools and the urban planning process.
This exercise relied on a systematic, ongoing participation process with experts in SD issues. Change drivers affecting social attitude toward SD were grouped into two axes:
the proposed methodology establishes a set of functional implications that each future scenario poses for the urban planning process.
For this purpose, the conceptual framework displaying the standard urban planning process, shown in Figure 1, is used to guide the implications analysis. Functional implications of Scenario A (2025).
However, modelling tools should support the process and not drive it. In fact, the sophistication of many statistical and mathematical models is more apparent than real
Law tends to adapt to the passage of time through a gradual process, and hesitates to anticipate forthcoming developments.
and provide the necessary material and input for the scenario construction process. The consultation of experts as a methodological approach to the study of the future of law resulted in a very original and creative exercise.
and as already mentioned with regard to the consultation process and the think piece contributions, LOTF aimed to cover an extensive range of legal dimensions
the process of expansion of international rules and institutions reverses and legal borders thickens; dominated by state-made law borders;
the anticipation of the future is increasingly being carried out through the advanced tools that help process, search,
It is a process that goes backwards, connecting the future to the present. After a given period of time, a law of this kind would go through a‘‘future verification''assessment, in
not only contribute to the process of evaluating the impact of specific laws in society, it would also render legislators
as well as the process of replacing them with new ones, a more reliable and evidence-based procedure.
The process of lawmaking is often tortuous and obscure. The legislative preparatory phase may be depicted as a battle field,
and the political bias surrounding the legislative process, the application of foresight methods and tools to Law should be as scientifically-sound as possible.
Delorenzi, D.,Shane, J. M. S. and Amendola, K. L. 2006),‘The compstat process: managing performance on the pathway to leadership'',The Police chief Magazine, Vol. 73, pp. 34-40.
interactive and communicative process with the aim to contribute to the public and political opinion forming on science and technology related societal aspects 1 like exploitation of potential, dealing with secondary effects,
but also for the communication of assumptions and results during or at the end of a TA process since the current situation creates a lot of terminological fuzz, misinterpretations and misconceptions.
The aim rather is to initiate a process of shaping of technology in which the emergence of new technologies is accompanied by mutual co-operation between technology development and impact analysis, between sustainability research and nanosciences,
and/or technology. 4. 2. Roadmapping as a precursor of a TA process for specific nanotechnology applications The situation described above rather broad and largely unstructured field of investigation, mostly enabling technologies at early stages of development,
Many activities that are considered as nanotechnology are closer to R&d for enabling technologies than they are embedded in a product (or process) development,
and technology roadmapping to include it as a precursor into the TA process for selected applications of nanotechnology.
and moderated process with a multidiscipplinar and cross-functional group of experts to develop and visualize an analytical structure
it may offer valuable insights for the entire TA process. Other assumed benefits for the TA practitioner are the identification of gaps of knowledge,
it is expected that this process allows more reliable judgements about product ideas and visionary applications thought up by proponents (and sometimes propagandists) of nanotechnology, about the realism and the realisation periods of these concepts as well as about the potential of competing conventional technologies.
The communicative part of the process supports thinking about the unknown future, provides knowledge for more informed decisions
and what further benefits of the roadmapping process beyond structuring the field of nanotechnology can be expected. 5. Summary
some scientists are restrained somewhat about their participation in a roadmapping process. Some fear to disclose too much sensitive knowledge to potential competitors,
and evolution is an essentially open-ended and non-optimising process. We use a simple illustration of a mountaineer to illustrate such an open-ended process of path-finding
and use some ideas from cultural historical theory to argue that modelling the directionality of the innovative élan requires analysis of progress at several time scales.
Animals, as well as technologies, are domesticated in a historical process. For ordinary human beings, what used to be a beast can one day become cattle.
evolution is a process that creates continuously newforms. Akey starting point for Bergson was the belief that evolution is truly creative,
With some simplification, this‘élan vital'could perhaps be called‘the process of life'.'It is‘teleology in action,
Intuition and instinct allow us to grasp the ongoing process and flow of life. Out of this continuity, intellect, in turn, constructs a world that consists of discontinuities and potential breaking points.
Although the process of life transpires in a continuous world where distinctions are nonexistent our intellect is a tool for intervention.
In the Bergsonian model of evolution, the process of life creates newforms and newpossibilities for action.
Ontological expansion in the mobile space This process of ontological expansion can be illustrated by comparing the evolution of the biological eye and the mobile telephone.
Nor can the elements of an eye be generated in a teleological process that aims at producing an eye.
and drives this process? One possibility is to take the Bergsonian model of evolution seriously
the moving ahead towards undefined directions that can perhaps only be described as the process of life.
The process is determined not by a plan or programme, and it does not optimise any given function;
We may illustrate the expansionary character of this process using alpinism as a metaphor. When a mountaineer climbs a mountain face, at each hold,
In their original depiction of natural drift, Maturana and Varela (1988, chap. 5) described the process of evolution using a metaphor of water drops rolling down from the top of a mountain.
however, are inadequate for explaining the process of evolution, as evolutionary change is strongly underdetermined by selection (Varela, Thompson, and Rosch 1991,195).
Schön (1987,31) illustrated such a process by recounting Edmund Carpenter's description of the Eskimo sculptor patiently carving a reindeer bone,
however, mean that the dimensions of such‘control space'also emerge in an evolutionary process.
A process theory of the knowledge-based firm. Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Ogilvy, J. 2011.
Process and reality: An essay in cosmology. Corrected ed. Newyork: Free Press. Wright, A. 2005.
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