'The boundaries of the tectonic plates and the understanding of the process of subduction are elucidated reasonably well distinguishing two processes differing in terms of their tendency to follow‘stiction'or‘lubrication'.
There is a secondary process: that arises from the unknown knowns in the FTA team's distribution of knowledge and the depth of it.
or models to specify the information to be collected process is highly efficient since aberrations (classified as‘noise')do not have any causal source At the natural pole,
Actionable future visions Timely mitigation of negative impacts or adaptation to new situations and exploitation of positive outcomes Guidance and support for the policy process identifying impacts on society and implications for policy,
Elicitation of expert opinion is a deep and arduous process. It was invoked in the IFTFS study to gather information for the main parts of the study that later involved scenario generation The elicitation process used facilitated the later combination of quantitative
as well as new networks among stakeholders Embedding participation in policymakkin Facilitating the participation of civil society in the policymakkin process,
and legitimacy Supporting policy definition Jointly translating outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy definition
and consider what they mean for the process of foresight. After all, the conscious and deliberate production of expectations in foresight occurs in an environment where promises
This adds a reflexive and strategic dimensiio to the process of foresight, as we saw in the anticipation of the hype cycle,
The role of technological expectations in a mixed model of international diffusion of process innovations:
Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 369 87. Dierkes, M.,U. Hoffmann,
Energy efficiency in industrial process technologies. Technovation 26, no. 9: 1029 44. Mackenzie, D. 1990. Inventing accuracy:
From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
Motorola's technology roadmap process. Research Management 30, no. 5: 13 19. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014
and this instability creates uncertainty for rationally bounded managers who are not able to fully collect, process,
The structure of the chemical industry resulted from an as yet uncompleted consolidation process and also from the rise of new competitors in Asia, Middle east,
These were built via a top-down process that started at corporate level, by first taking into account the global economy
Foresight and decision-making Decision-makers at BASF seamlessly embedded foresight activities in the strategy formulation process. Scenarios are combined usually with the formulation and evaluation of strategic options,
A scenario building process was carried out with a special focus on changing mobility patterns in urban lifestyles,
These different pieces of insight are matched finally through an interactive process that brings the social researchers from Philips Design and the technologists from Philips Research together with the business managers from all the product divisions of the company.
Insight from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 369 87. Daheim, D,
Organizational strategy, structure, and process. Newyork: Mcgraw-hill. Milliken, F. J. 1987. Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment:
From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
These can and should be triggered by customers to enable the process to be effective and able to deliver the expected value.
The continuous improvement cycle found in the PDCA is the key process for driving learning and innovation in an organisation.
It is the process of seeking in the present to bridge the gap between the present and the future continuously,
Learning is then a continual process that also takes place during each implementation cycle: the firm will be armed then with better and clearer opportunities for an evolutionary leap in sustainability performance and to deal with disruptive change, in alignment with the partners in its network.
According to Gertler and Wolfe (2002), networked learning enables a process of adaptation that is participatory and interactive and in
and intution-Formal and powerful processes-Sustainability-driven firm-Positive emotions (ratio at or above 2. 90) lead to creativity across the sustainability net, focus on innovative ideas-Participative process;
inter-group learning-Values (universal principles) embedded in every process Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
which can support firms through the process to shape business sustainable development throughout their networks of relationships.
Project management process maturity (PM) 2 model. Journal of Management in Engineering, 18, no. 3: 150 5. Larsen, A. H. 2003.
and sharing through the network to achieve a dynamic process of innovation, learning and continuous improvement Motivation Making available the necessary tools and an environmental where collaborators share responsibility
Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy
It becomes essential to compare the actual results (the way it is now as it is) with the expected ones (the way the organisation wishes to be as it ought to be), through a feedback process,
in order to shape sustainability and learning along the process. Monitor the business C It is to monitor all necessary information of how the business is running
Sustain the business A It is developed a process by every day activities. It depends of being able to meet everything that was defined in the earlier plan stage
and navigation tools were provided also to IA leaders to allow them to explore the data independently. 3. Process,
The landscape maps were created using a process consistent with commonly accepted methods of mapping knowledge domains 1 (see Fig. 1:!
We also used an optimized stopword list prior to construction of the initial term Fig. 1. Process of putting data into a Vxinsight map. 3 FY=fiscal year,
The Sandia-specific IA map, generated using the process described above, is shown in Figs. 3 and 4. Fig. 3 shows the Vxinsight view,
or to suggest potential collaborative opportunities between laboratories. 5. Future directions This is the first year that we have applied such analyses to our LDRD process.
Coming late in the annual process, the results have been more modest than they could have been.
We plan to start a similar process for the FY06 LDRD process, and carry it out much sooner in the annual process.
We have learned that it is important not to saturate the IA leads with the information from these analyses,
We use a notion of process-based roadmapping that widens the horizons of traditional technology roadmapping in such directions as visionary strategic management, network building and development,
Section 3 presents the notion of process-based roadmapping that is based on the identification of knowledge space and roadmap scope.
In the process, some path gets chosen, either explicitly or implicitly, and the realised path then leads either to growth, even development or decline.
is an adaptive process-based methodology well suited for systemic contexts (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012):
In the systemic context, roadmapping refers to a continuous and transparent process, not a single exercise,
In the context of systemic transformation capacities, the generic process of roadmapping is coarsely the following:(
Process-based roadmapping is a scalable method that can be used to study the micro-level for example,
To engage in a successful roadmapping process, the organisation does need not only to depict its present position,
Thus, the roadmapping exercise simultaneously fosters an anticipatory culture and structural openness through a systematic process and explicit visionary narrative.
and to iterate the process systematically. The theoretical background for the above formulations stems from the notion that roadmapping can be considered both as a line of strategic thought
and as a process methodology. 1 Roadmapping combines different modes of knowledge with specific activity layers (Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
As a process methodology, roadmapping consists of several modules. Modularisation allows one to form a tailored‘response chain'to answer different kinds of research and development problems (see, e g.
Furthermore, modularisation enables the tailoring of the roadmapping process to suit the needs of the different actors
Here, we call this methodology process-based roadmapping. It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives describiin the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
Process-based strategy roadmapping is methodologically more flexible and exploratory than traditiiona technology roadmapping. The roadmaps are approached not as hermetic plans to achieve definite goals (e g. new products),
and knowledge spaces 827 In process-based roadmapping, systemic transformation capacities can be built through the following three steps:(
It describes the basic aims of the process and provides some views on the use of roadmapping material.
Roadmap scope Description Process aims Primary use of the roadmap R&d I: R&d perspective on a single technology or object Roadmapping single technologies from a certain perspective Enhancing organisational capacities in a certain technology field Building vision
depends on the specific aims of the process Forming practical organisatioona conclusions on the basis of the roadmapping Systemic I:
business perspective Network roadmapping Roadmap for developing capacities for a network or a cluster Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Making business decisions on the basis
policy perspective Innovation policy roadmapping Roadmap for developing synthesising policy perspectives for public actors Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Forming policy conclusions on the basis of the roadmapping Downloaded by University of Bucharest
and combines roadmap knowledge‘spaces',depending on the specific aims of the process. The aim is to endorse business decisions on the basis of roadmapping.
technology and social/actor space, R&d I scope Our first example is a roadmapping process that is aimed to renew a line of organisational compettenc that is already rather well established at VTT.
The aim of the process was to form an outlook of development directions in building services, its research needs and business potential to the year 2020 (Paiho et al. 2007.
foresight and organisational learning methods were integrated in a workshop process. During the workshops in 2009, some 30 VTT researchers and management representatives built shared understanding of the field.
The process was based on a novel combination of methods. The integrative methodology rested on the model of expansive learning (Engeström 2001.
In the process, two practical methods were added to the model of expansive learning. First, impact evaluation was used to gain a systematic view of the past (see Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
This integrated process was called learning by foresight and evaluation (with the acronym LIFE, learning by foresight and evaluation;
and to foster business decisions based on a novel‘service perspective'formed in the process (Myllyoja, Wessberg, and Pajakkala 2012).
The roadmapping process was realised in two phases: the first phase was thematic interviews and the second phasewas roadmapping.
and its future possibilities Capacities for use of the existing service knowledge Knowledge generated via roadmapping was used iteratively throughout the strategy building process, e g. definition of service, identification of most important research needs,
I type roadmapping process, which aimed to contribute to the strategic and visionary spaces, and to come up with related business decisions.
The process was realised in 2005 2007 between VTT Technical research Centre of Finlaand FOI (Sweden SINTEF (Norway), and DTI (Denmark.
Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities Nordic ICT Foresight can be perceived as a systemic II type of policy-oriented foresight process,
We presented a model of a process-based roadmap with four knowledge spaces, which extends the horizons of roadmappiing We also presented four case examples the Building Service Roadmap, SSB Network, Construction Machinery Roadmap,
process-based roadmapping is one potential avenue for the construuctio of such mobile strategies. On the basis of the cases, it can be assessed that roadmapping is most applicable to processes aimed either at the technology space, the social/actor space,
Overall process and detailed modules. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72, no. 5: 567 83. Myllyoja, J.,N. Wessberg,
'This process integrates (a) heavily empirical‘Tech Mining'with (b) heavily expert-based multipath mapping.
By‘innovation',we mean a novel technical contribution effectively translated into a successful product or process (i e. commercialisation.
but emphasise that FIP is not a once-through, linear process. Rather, this method gathers information pursuant to the various steps,
4. Results We emphasise the relatively novel steps in our 10-step FIP process (Figure 1) for the DSSC case:
tracking materials to technology to functions to applications. engaging with those knowledgeable about the technology through the process of further specifying the set of important, and distinctive, functions;
following the process described and demonstrated by Robinson and Propp (2008). Their expert workshops involve a wider spectrum of experts and stakeholders for a more extended interaction (e g. full day.
Figure 6 shows an introductory slide to initiate the workshop process. It presents some key elements that we established in our desk research,
The process should also explore‘how'these could be brought about. For instance, does need a particular call for government funding or standard setting?
Through this process, many findings come into view as to what should have priority for promoting innovation.
Therefore, deriving the maximum benefit from foresight activities requires a carefully designed and actively driven transfer process of foresight results into research policy making.
This paper aims to present such a process(‘‘strategic dialogue'')and illustrate it with recent examples from Germany.
and linked to the process. Findings Strategic dialogues have proved to be an effective and efficient instrument for achieving the transfer of results from strategic processes such as foresight into research policy making.
we illustrate the process with three examples from Germany and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research related to transferring results from foresight
If the transfer of foresight results is essentially a dialogue process then the question arises
B policy dialogues initiated by policy makers to gain public support (not to be confused with the process of developing policies in the first place;
both during the process of creating consensus views of future developments and during their translation into research policy and the creation of research infrastructure.
and thus needs to be involved in the process in a targeted way. A careful choice of individuals to participate in the dialogue in the first place is beneficial A recurring example of the application of the RAP is the involvement of representatives of trade bodies in strategic dialogues.
The process should be constructed to make maximum use of the concentration of knowledge about one particular industry that such a trade body representative has.
However, the process also needs to take into account that trade body representatives have tied their hands in terms of changing their viewpoint during a dialogue
reservations and sensitivities but need to do so without assuming these can necessarily be influenced The process of beliefs being updated that is captured by the model of Bayesian learning applies in several contexts during a strategic dialogue.
and‘‘dialogue''as a creative process aimed at generating insight and, in some cases, consensus In the case of strategic dialogues,
Relevant stakeholders from politics need to be identified at the beginning of the process to ensure their involvement in initializing the strategic dialogue and clarifying relevant issues and expected results.
External stakeholders are being identified in the course of the process based on input from political stakeholders complemented by input from our own research as well as established networks into academia and industry.
Thus, a constructive framework for further discussions throughout the process can be established. 4. 2 Step 2:
stakeholders need to be assured of our neutral role as facilitators of the process. However, stakeholders must not get the impression that the facilitator is‘‘on their side''.
Expansion towards external stakeholders Based on the collected information from various sources the issues to be addressed in the further course of the process can be expressed with greater precision.
and the process to the experts as well as to collect initial input to describe the starting point
Originality/value The paper introduces a novel approach for identifying grand challenges and responses within the research and innovation system through a bottom-up process.
A number of points are developed then that are related to the process and results described in the case study. 3. 2 Scope and context of the exercise In the second half of 2010,
In terms of engineering science and technology, it was a relatively simple process to identify possible responses from the research and innovation systems at a national level, through addressing known gaps in capacity and building on emerging areas of strength.
Foresight initiatives play an important role in this process by challenging the research and innovation communities to consider the impacts of changes in conditions, resources and other factors over different time horizons.
bottom-up process that assembled grand challenges by combining knowledge on drives and trends with national context and insights.
while the procedure follows an anonymous, multi-stage communication process based on several survey rounds (Turoff,
Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and the value of the process are acknowledged also. 2. 2 Basic information for the scanned Delphi topics The Delphi topics used for sustainable energy are chosen from foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China.
There is long history in economics of the use of patent data to understand the process of invention and innovation (Griliches, 1990;
or in the R&d agenda setting process, it may therefore be strategically important to identify what kind of technologies are rated as important for these three countries;
Hax, A. and Majluf, N. 1996), The Strategy Concept and Process: A Pragmatic Approach, Prentice hall, London.
and compared in an iterated process until the suggested policy provides satisfying results. Hamarat et al. 11 explore the application of EMA combined with a number of tools in a case that focuses on a large systemic transformation or transition of an energy generation system towards a more sustainable functioning.
create a common language and understanding between stakeholders thus supporting a systematic negotiation process, and legitimate a chosen course of action through engagement and dialogue.
in Germany the process is less coordinated and does not involve heterogeneous stakeholders nor make use of the knowledge gained in various FTA.
However, one must be aware that the relevance of quantitative methods may lie more in their systematic process of comparing policy alternatives under different scenarios,
Tuomi 14 suggests that the ontological unpredictability4 of innovative process cannot be removed by more accurate data or incremental improvements in existing predictive models.
'and to contribute to the robustness of FTA, in terms of process, content, and impacts. Since its first edition the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis devoted part of its attention to the development of new tools and methods, novel use of existing methods and (new) disciplines applied by FTA.
Visualisation of quantitative data 36 can be a useful way of bringing these data to a workshop or another qualitative process.
In this case results of qualitative and quantitative techniques feed into each other at several stages of the process
and ignorance typically issues being dealt with by FTA the value of models is (at least) as much in the process as in the output. 8 Another common misconception associates subjectivity and value judgement to qualitative processes,
processed and analysed in the process. Unavoidably, policy-makers and stakeholders will assign a higher plausibility to scenarios that somehow resonate with their own visions.
J. Educ. 100 (1992) 236 256.54 T. D. Jick, Process and Impacts of a Merger:
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.73 B b. Hughes, P. D. Johnston, Sustainable futures:
It includes two dimensions the competitive impact and integration in products or process and four stages.
, Marcus Lange 15 Backward citations Immediacy of patent citations Forward citations Dependent claims Priorities Duration of the examination process Data base requirements Fig. 2
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 We propose a normalisation method with two steps to pre-process the original data.
Universal Darwinism 1. Introductory thoughts The main objective of this seminar concerns the exploitation of the powerful new capabilities provided by the Information technology Era to advance Future-oriented technology analysis (TFA), both product and process.
In both cases there is no kind of genetic inheritance controlling the ceiling of the growth process.
We have witnessed a natural evolutionary process of the human understanding of the socioeconomic realm that was forced to follow (we may say in a fractal fashion) the same path,
All of the extraordinary organizational forms and behavioral strategies that we witness in nature or society have arisen through the process of inheritance with diversification and selection.
In a very recent book edited by John Ziman 15 (Technological innovation as an Evolutionary Process) we have different authors theorizing about these questions,
not only organisms, can be explained as the product of a mindless and mechanical algorithmic process). Campbell defended a universal evolutionary
or selection theory, claiming ultimately that all innovative design is produced by one or another variation-plus-selection-plus-transmission process,
and proposed the acronym BV (blind variation)+ SR (selective retention) to designate the process. The most important arguments introduced by Campbell in this discussion can be resumed:
and natural selection, making unvarnished organic evolution a purely random variation and selective retention process. Technological evolution (and cultural evolution as a whole) must be subject to more or less analogs of these four forces,
or in other words, the basic process of Gene Culture Coevolution, which is the most appropriate approach to develop a firmly based ETTC.
T technological evolution cannot be thought as an independent evolutionary process, but it is part (the most energetic one) of a broad co-evolutionary set of processes,
Stephen Wolfram 32, has been applied to the evolutionary simulation of the innovation diffusion process by a group of the Hebrew University led by Jacob Goldenberg and Sorin Salomon 33,
whose continuing evolutionary process conduces to increasingly complex systems; cultural evolution (and technological evolution as well) is the continuation of biological evolution by other means;
technology must be viewed as the further improvement of this process by intelligent means (then allowing too for intentionality),
technological evolution is not an independent evolutionary process, but it is the fastest and more energetic among a broad innovation-driven and co-evolutionary set of processes, composing the whole of the world system.
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1150 recent proposal of this author with George Modelski for a seminar on Globalization as Evolutionary Process 40 to be held in the spring of 2005 in Paris,
From Chaos To order, Perseus Books, Cambridge, Ma, 1998.15 J. Ziman (Ed.),Technological innovation as an Evolutionary Process, Cambridge university Press, 2003.16 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter
2003 February) 52 59.40 T. Devezas, G. Modelski, Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling, Simulating and Forecasting Social Change, a Proposal of a Seminar to the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation,
and policy-making 1 5. The term‘model'refers here to a representation of the most crucial aspects of a system of interest for extracting usable information 6. The term‘decision-making'is used here for the act or process of making strategies or conscious decisions
and‘policy-making'for the act or process of designing policies by those in charge of designing (public policy.
Another important challenge inmany FTA projects is supporting amulti-actor process. Different perspectives, differentworldviews or different mental models of various stakeholders are usually the norm in FTA projects
and may result in situations where the results of FTA projects are contested by one ormore of the actors involved in the process
an interactive and co-evolving process, Res. Policy 31 (2002) 1467 1479.30 C. S. Holling, Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management, John Wiley & Sons, New york, 1978.31 R. J. Mclain
the process of exploiting the information contained in such a set through a large number of computational experiments,
and even some base metals such as copper 19 22 and lead 23 may in a few decades become more difficult and expensive to mine and process,
Alternatively, EMA offers the potential to support the process of creatively imagining possible futures, a purpose for which it was used in the first case study. The techniques used in each of the tree cases do not exclude each other.
-create and support a systemized negotiation process among key stakeholders (social actors. -be helpful in engaging decision-makers in specific issues,
or perceived modes of thinking about the future and multiple stakeholder values are initiating enablers or barriers for the scenario process.
In the context of this paper, we will argue that this process of reflexive inquiry will provide the basis for creating new insights
with innovation no longer seen primarily as a process of discovery, i e. new scientific or technological principles,
but rather as a nonlinear process of learning 36. An innovation system is never static; it evolves with alterations in the content of technologies and products as well as in the relationships among various other innovation systems.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 experiments in the policy process, new concepts and sustainable solutions can be found to grand challenges.
so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem.
4. Results and implications The value of scenarios lies in the robustness of the claims to knowledge within the process of the scenario development.
An overview of our findings is summarized in the subsequent sub-sections (sub-sections 4. 1 4. 3). Each of these subsections includes a description of representation issues linked with the approach and methods used, input, process and main outcome.
but the process of exchanging knowledge is recognized to overcome some limits of conventional scenario practice 61.
Thus the scenario process can be seen as frame for dialogue, not to reach consensus but to recognize other parties'point of view.
and using scenarios should be viewed as a systemized negotiation process among key stakeholders (social actors),
the community of practice being informed and the values inherent in the process. In this sense, no single discipline or particular prescribed set of methods can be considered to be optimal.
To strengthen the enablers for innovation within the scenario process, the link between practice and theory,
different modes of futures thinking have been identified through the process of deconstruction. In this paper, we argue that these modes of futures thinking are shown to contribute in different ways to orientating innovation systems.
Hence, by using a reflexive methodology we were able to create a heuristic to learn from the process of developing
but the process of exchanging knowledge is recognized to overcome some limits of conventional research, particularly as far as grand challenges are concerned.
and using scenarios should be viewed as a systemized negotiation process among key stakeholders (social actors),
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 20 (2008) 369 387.6 P. D. Andersen, M. Borup, K. Borch, J. Kaivo-oja, A. Eerola, T. Finnfjörnsson, E. Øverland
an interactive and co-evolving process, Res. Policy 14 (2002) 1 13.37 R. Sternberg, J. Pretz, J. Kaufman, Types of innovation, in:
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