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Open question (12)
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Synopsis: Question: Question:

and debated the question of the weight to be given to expert input and who were experts in any case.

The question was raised also as to whether the foresight community itself was locked-in in methodological terms given the age profile of methods. 7. This issue The articles of this issue only partly cover the richness of the papers delivered at the Seminar.

It discusses the questions and validity of the analogy between technological evolution and biological evolution

Several critical questions can be raised with respect to the biases brought in by the foresight process itself: Can we really trust the expectations raised in a foresight exercise?

making sure that the scenarios can answer the right questions. The visions and objectives are also an important input to Phases 5 and 6. 3. 2. 6. Phase 5:

the question remains open of how to design AF processes that are in line with the specific situation of a country.

Elaboration of questionnaire (including the definition of questions on participation in standardisation and involvement in setting up regulatory frameworks, the relevance of regulations, the use of existing standards, the relevance of current regulations, future needs for standards

The answers to a question on the potential use and benefits of standards reveal that standards are important internally for cost reduction

and inquiries about the location of luggage or an individual (with that person's approval) are done commonly through the internet from home

the universe Processing and analysis of data requires large human resources Identification of adequate samples Some types of information are difficult to obtain (answers to counterfactual questions

MPM helps answering relevant questions such as: What specific kinds of innovation chains can be stimulated? What happens technologically, organizationally along the way

different parties are likely to have rather diverse views on this question. Clearly, even a superficial treatment of this issue would be way beyond the scope of this paper. 27 There is no widely accepted definition of competitiveness;

and that would lead to a Successful multi-speed EU. Not all of these questions can be discussed here as appropriate answers to them would require a dialogue among the key players,

as well as their organisational structures, managerial practices and 31 A closely related question is whether the emphasis put on cohesion goals would convince laggard EU countries/regions to consider RTDI as an important enabler of more efficient and faster catching-up,

in turn, can and should always be tailored to a specific research question);(iii) the role of other research actors,

our inquisitive intellects and our social networks are both asking some important questions: what are the critical new tools,

This special issue of TFSC presents a provocative alignment of papers designed to begin the probing of these fundamental questions about the future and future-oriented technology analysis (FTA.

The essence of Cunningham's model is that the application of hierarchical random graphs of technology characteristics to questions as complex as:

A more fundamental question is whether such a model is consistent with what is postulated about the sociology and epistemology of science.

Project/questions IRRIIS INNORISK CES How case studies contributed to risk analysis methodology? Scenarios should be as accurate as possible

Our answers to questions such as bwhat do you think might happen? Q and bwhat do you want to happenq are limited sharply by

Each group was presented with a set of questions tailored to highlight topics relevant to this specific audience.

Some individual questions used in earlier studies such as Eurostat surveys, were included in order to ensure consistency, and to allow later comparisons between different countries and surveys.

The exact questions and formulations used can be found in the full barometer report 7. The purpose of the survey is to cast light onto the respondents'valuations regarding technology, perception about current state of affairs,

The enquiry was divided into four parts in accordance with the partial indicators: competence and knowledge generation, knowledge society development, innovative society and sustainable development.

In the theme of education a number of significant questions arise, like the idea of including interactive and mobile media skills to science education curriculum at the elementary level. 3. 3. Synthesizing discussion Each technology barometer consists of concluding discussions of certain topical issues

The question considered are, for example, what will be the content of knowledge-intensive jobs retained by Finland in future

One interesting question is whether this type of barometer activities could be carried out as an international collaboration exercise in the future.

and new developments in science and technology or long-term research questions were described at these crossroads. These crosscutting areas were additional starting points for searches.

The other questions concerning the relevancy of the topic area (five steps on the scale) could be assessed voluntarily.

The second question was about the time: when do you expect the highest research intensity (in 1 to 5 years, in 6 to 10 years, in 11 to 15 years or in 16 to 20 years.

On this page, also different new research questions or tasks could be mentioned in an open field

Whether the divisions adopt this information to support new topics is another question. Another impact is expected in the first definition of new strategic partnerships.

and especially crosscutting topics (objectives 1 and 2). The question of adaptive foresight remains 19, p. 472.

Nevertheless, the question remains, how this kind of impact can be demonstrated, traced and measured. References 1 Forlearn, http://forlearn. jrc. ec. europa. eu/guide/1 why-foresight/functions. htm, access:

and leading questions for the analysis. Section 3 synthesizes the findings from the review of evaluative scenario literature.

A couple of questions arise from this discussion: 1. How is used scenario planning: is geared it more towards indirect forms of decision support

These questions guided our review of the available literature 2 . While numerous alternative methodologies exist for future strategic planning,

It is not possible to provide standard answers to questions such as whether it more advisable to go for a centralized approach, with a central unit in charge of coordinating other departmental units,

on the other hand, scenarios are seen as part of a scientific inquiry, as in the case of global environmental assessments such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment or the IPCC, work on the systematization of methods

In addition, the question of a potential correlation between scenario approaches and impacts and effectiveness of use require further evaluative efforts.

The resulting framework that emerges from CSH is a set of boundary concepts usable as a checklist of critical boundary questions.

and process needs if Foresight programmes are to be extended into the social sphere without becoming chaotic 3. Foresight ought to be concerned with three questions:

For inclusivity these three questions are interrelated in social, technical, economic, ecological, political and value/norm (acronym STEEPV) aspects of society.

So far, Foresight has concentrated on the first two questions related to science and technology and has paid relatively little attention to the third.

these questions characterise trans science 4. These issues are discussed briefly in Box 1 (below) and in greater depth in Loveridge and Street 3. Throughout recent decades it has been presumed that people possess an infinite‘plasticity,

or the attempts to deal with social problems through the procedures of science hang on the answers to questions that can be asked of science

Questions with these characteristics (see Barker and Peters 5, Box 1) have arisen consistently in recent years

5. Admission of the social influence on the directions taken by science and technology from within and without the scientific and technology community 6. Greater attention to the question of desirability,

Mostly, this means that those consulted are thought to be of such standing as to make the inquiry outcome credible to its sponsor.

formal public enquiries of limited scope and invited workshops are the most frequently encountered processes used to extend the deliberations of the committee charged with the Foresight study.

Telephone surveys The Internet Postal surveys Public meetings Public enquiries Invited workshops Interactive television Videoconferencing Electronic meetings or surveys based on:

the interests of the entire population affected including those not involved in the inquiry or design process, including the handicapped,

Each of Ulrich's questions has to be answered both in the IS and OUGHT mode as there are no definitive answers in boundary judgements.

Immediately this raises questions of inclusivity and exclusivity, and of the nature of what is colloquially, vaguely and incorrectly called‘nanotechnology'.

but have not answered these questions, nor have given they insights into the transition from unstable to stable situations.

The question of risk thresholds is discussed often especially around consumer safety and occupational health and safety.

Key question: why focus on nano?.5. 2. 2011 2012 nanoproducts proliferate The Precautionary principle is promoted within codes

which led to an enquiry on methods of sterilisation and exploration of bio-fouling. Technical complexity becomes an issue.

The Finnish case sparks of a chain of enquiries into nano-regulation, and a number of lines of R&d grind to a halt pending further investigation Finnish case triggers a temporary moratorium:

this raises the question of what the various actors understand as strategy. Mintzberg and colleagues describe 10 schools of thought in strategy formation (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998.

The question is whether foresight or strategy processes can be designed as a so-called decision machine, which, if designed well enough

Instead the discussion focused on questions on the nature of strategy and whether it is possible to make strategies in science at all,

This of course begs the question of what other instruments might support the wider development of this particular topic and of the domain priorities as a whole.

but the expanded scope of the exercise has raised the question whether the FNR was the appropriate executor

with the wrong questions asked and an inappropriate workshop format used (see Glod, Duprel, and Keenan 2006).

The article contributes to discussions of inclusive foresight by showing how stakeholder image construction poses questions of power relationships in municipal long term governance.

is the question:‘‘How are these inclusion procedures publically and politically legitimised, other than by the continual demand for more genuine democratic decision-making?'

This article focuses on the question: How did this particular image of young people as stakeholders influence their involvement and the final results of their participation in the project?

the question here is which image an organisation might create of its stakeholders to legitimise its strategic choices.

This, however, emphasises questions such as to what extent stakeholders should be involved in the process, which ideas of the future should be labelled as‘desired

They criticised the absence of reflexive and critical inquiry into these future visions and warned about the possible alienating effects such visions could have on social groups already living on the fringes of society.

and Street call the‘third question'of foresight (2005,38). They argue that foresight has for too long concentrated on

'and should now be concerned with the question ‘What is desirable?''18 In the case of the Lundal vision project, long-term social planningwas intended to be influenced by young people between 14 and 19 years of age.

The final question is:‘‘How could this be different?''If municipal visioning is supposed to produce a shared picture of the desired future,

‘The question of participation in institutional Foresight programmes remains unresolved and largely hidden as the polity is unaware of their existence'.

To do so requires developing templates of innovation indicators to answer standard questions. Then, one can automate routines to generate composite information representations (bonepageersq that address the issues at hand, the way that the target users want.

what it takes to produce composite empirical responses to particular technology management questions, quickly. 2. Case example:

Suppose we have systematized a decision process that calls for answers to particular technology management questions. Imagine a scenario in which our organization is an American company initiating operations in Australia.

So, we would now like to answer two questions: 1. Are there recent advances in SOFCS that we need to understand?

39 MOT questions! 200 binnovation indicatorsq. 2 We gratefully acknowledge support of the U s. National science Foundation for"QTIPS-24-Hour Technology intelligence & Forecasting"(DMI-0231650.

technological maturation (life cycle status), contextual influences and market potential 3. The innovation indicators help answer MOT questions.

but it suggests particular indicators for each MOT question. One would adapt these to one's data sources

We emphasize that pre-specifying the empirical indicators for selected MOT questions and issues is vital for QTIP to work.

In our SOFC example, one might imagine the first question (what is hot? requiring less precision than the second (is this a suitable partner?.

Fig. 2 responds to the second question, more specifically profiling a particular candidate Australian organization with

From this digest of the company's open R&d face, we pose the action question for managerial decision.

if these questions are recognised explicitly in the pre foresight phases (see, e g. Irvine and Martin 1984;

Apart from covering economic and some other sciences (as a topic of scientific inquiry in their own right), this panel was ascribed a horizontal role

however, did not necessarily link to well-established fields of scientific inquiry or innovation activity.

and resolved questions concerning the objectives of the exercise;(ii) after the second panel meeting where the panel chairmen presented early results to each other and discussed panel interfaces;

Items in the template included questions on (i) what scientific fields and technological areas the focus areawas linked to,(ii)

At the first of these meetings, the President of the Academy of Finland and the General Director of Tekes presented the objectives of Finnsight to the panel chairmen who could pose questions of clarification

which purposely did not address structural questions. Building on the National Innovation strategy, the Governmeen has produced its Report on Innovation policy

Saritas and Smith invited attendees to answer a number of questions about shaping forces, sources of change and their impacts, particularly in terms of new challenges and opportunities.

These questions were structured into the categories of trends drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals. The survey responses provide a rich and diverse array of issues that could be dissected further

and questions that scanning regularly surfaces are not typically on the radar screen or agenda of managers, planners,

The question needs to be raised on how effective structural foresight is in achieving change. In the university sector the scenarios of change have attracted public attention

for instance responding to a question on what and what kind of outcomes are achieved. The management approach and stakeholder engagement refer,

instead, to the process-related aspects of the project, for instance responding to a question on how the outcomes were achieved and by

and asking difficult questions. The value-added here can be substantial. Horton suggests, however, that many governmental foresight exercises fail to provide the necessary support for interpretation to a wide range of stakeholders,

Knowledge is achieved through an interrogation of these things. Well-designed texts are particularly useful in how they have been designed for interrogation.

Where the issues at hand are complex, involving overlapping fields of expertise, ill-defined, and so on as is the case for many of the core topics that FTA addresses design of such texts can be very challenging.

what specific questions might be used in the workshop), allocate roles to facilitators and others. This design process applies

‘‘what if''questions, etc. The scenario framework can be a valuable tool for encouraging people from very different backgrounds to apply their knowledge in new ways.

''Nanotechnologies and the royal society and royal academy of engineering's inquiry, Public Understanding of Science 16 (3)( 2007) 345 364.40 S. J. Wood, R. Jones

Analysis of the relationship between governance and each of the three pillars poses a number of questions to the FTA COMMUNITY that reflect on the potential impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in governance.

and implements regulations in ways that are a political art as much as a science, underlain by the question of equity:

However, this question is overlooked frequently and the focus on science and technology development and economics always prevails, instead.

The question is how to formulate and facilitate policy making taking into account the active involvement of society and the requirements of the new governance systems.

Nevertheless the sustainability school raises questions about these trade-offs without offering a framework to answer them.

The question is especially relevant as globalisation must offer opportunities for All in fact, the latter poses a number of questions which need to be addressed such as how do FTA METHODS

and processes address the complex issue of literacy asymmetries of different stakeholders? How can FTA strategies

Questions need to be considered that include what kinds of governance is needed to permit actors external to the innovation processes to become more actively involved in technological development,

Being able to respond to the questions posed in Section 7 of this paper is critical to making such a shift.

Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards,

and questions for policy 1. Work conducted within the scope of the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN) included a strong element of scanning in the form of detecting

identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge, Science and Public policy 37 (1)( 2010) 7 18.2 S. Rijkers-Defrasne, E. Amanatidou, A. Braun, A. Pechmann,

The question was posed to the interviewees:‘‘‘‘in the light of recent events, do you believe this indicates FTA has failed (for example to foresee the possibility of the global financial crisis),

identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge, in: FTA Conference, Seville, 2008.3 J. Calof, J. Smith, Critical success factors for government led foresight, in:

The question then is how to provide policy making with the best available knowledge about the impacts of interventions (that achieve the intended goals

where a predefined set of key questions is used to guide the discussion. The openness or closeness is determined by the degree of pre-structure in the design of such methods.

which the question of clarifying the assumptions of modelling still is a crucial issue: the planning of an underground railway station for the City of Stuttgart,

which were connected closely to each other via their phrasing of questions and goals. The Delphi process was adopted to VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 305 provide a basis for a group communication process,

Most important questions dealt with the estimations on the importance and possibilities of the most vital energy consuming sectors (transport,

Experts'views on questions, such as how much inconvenience the Finns are ready to accept in exchange for more sustainable future,

most of the questions were open questions where the respondents were encouraged, in their own words, to explain how

Hence the most important information needs concerned possible development paths in key energy consuming sectors (transport, housing and industry), the additional questions concentrated on these issues.

with questions concerning development paths having limited options on future development to choose from, whereas questions concerning the scenario drafts were open questions.

Second futures workshop By the second futures workshop the FFRC team had taken into account the results of the second round questionnaire and,

The basic message from the expert group regarding this question was that in order to achieve the set targets,

and seek possible answers to these questions. Prime minister's Office organised a gathering on March 29,

The question, then, is how to trace emerging irreversibilities? We will focus on two ingredients of technological change that are especially important in the early stages:(

what questions should be raised in order to address the particular cell in the matrix and Fig. 3 gives typical sources to address the questions.

By answering these questions empirically, main findings can be distilled. Subsequently, from these findings emerging irreversibilities can be derived.

These steps make up the method we employ in this paper to perform the case study. These steps are elaborated on in Section 3. The case we discuss in the next section deals with nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.

Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Fig. 2. Questions that are raised in order to address the dynamics of expectations and processes of agenda building.

Fig. 3. Possible sources to answer the questions raised in Fig. 2. R. O. van Merkerk,

in the matrix in Fig. 7. These findings also give answers to the questions as proposed in Fig. 2. Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Next to the acknowledgement that nanotubes offer huge possibilities,

The hopes, expectations and also the increasing social concerns raise questions about the possibilities to assess the ongoing developments.

the next question is whether they can respond to the requirements of contemporary urbanism. The answer could be called‘‘territorial foresight''.

Regarding the application of fta to other fields of knowledge and inquiry, Cagnin and Keenan (2008) have called attention to the need for a wider examination of FTA TOOLS and approaches.

which aimed to answer the following question:‘‘‘‘What do you see as the most significant challenges for the development of the law within your track (and/or in relation to other tracks?

when addressing the question of why we should speculate far ahead. In effect, it is not

In this particular, the question one encounters is how to measure the quality and the appropriateness of the legal research based on a specific FTA (determining, for instance,

The combination of Law and FTA also raises the question (and challenge) of how to keep FTA and Law distinct and separated.

Instead, such tracks should be seen as interrelated clusters of general questions and characteristics (possibly overlapping with one another),

and new questions Technology assessment (TA) is a scientific, interactive and communicative process with the aim to contribute to the public and political opinion forming on science and technology related societal aspects 1 like exploitation of potential, dealing with secondary effects,

But most questions about the relevant consequences and options to influence it arise in the later phases of the innovation process, from the diffusion to the market, the use of technology and its disposal.

But the hopes and questions reach much further. Rather than the nanomaterials themselves, their use in new products and processes and their application in existing or new contexts,

TA projects can differ by task, subjects and questions of investigation and addressee. Their design, structure and methodology depend on these factors

or make them accessible for TA questions, a preceding step has to be performed. Its central goal is to obtain a well-structured connection between R&d activities in this field and potential fields of application and ideas for products.

However, some of the ideas for products or visions for applications raise also considerable questions with respect to their nontechnical implications.

1 An even more basic question raised during the conference relates to what the often proclaimed Grand challenges really are and

The question arises whether this is actually the case, or whether it‘produces fictional certainty that leads to managerial overconfidence and blindness to true novelty and uncertainties,

Henri Bergson explored this question in great depth over a century ago. In Creative Evolution, he argued that both mechanistic and teleological approaches fail to explain novelty.

however, leaves somewhat open the question howwe come up with the natural systems in the first place. Rosen combines here a partly Bergsonian explanation,

The above analysis opens important questions that deserve further study. On a theoretical level, the lack of predefined ontological blueprints means that weak signals cannot in any straightforwaar way be interpreted in a realist context,

Even in hindsight, the responses to these questions remain unclear. For the debate in this paper, there was no‘black hole'.

(or group of questions) was constructed can influence the outcome markedly. Many of the perceived‘uncertainties'of quantitative information arise from these sources and from the nature of expert opinion:

this raised the subsidiary question of their individual levels Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance

Next, the elicitation moved to an assessing ability test in which the interviewee was asked to respond to 10 questions, drawn from the Guinness Book of Records, in a probabilistic way:

in it, the interviewees were asked to respond to a set of questions in his/her topic field the responses to whichwould enable a probability distribution to be constructed representing their opinion regarding the topic of the interview.

the assessing ability test was repeated this time using questions drawn from the interviewees'field of expertise.

In 1983, Loveridge was only the then latest person to raise questions along the following lines:‘

The central question of this paper is whether and howforesight exercises, as formal articulations of possible futures, relate to a broader, informal,

In particular, two questions stand*Email: h. vanlente@uu. nl ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715478

the question is what this body of literature has to offer for foresight. This article investigated the lessons of the sociology of expectations for the various practices of foresight.

The following question remains largely unexplored: how do managers design their strategic foresight approach in different environments and thus under different conditions of uncertainty?

and Siemens. 5 Given the inadequate analysis in the literature and the open-ended nature of our questions, we felt that this methodological approach would be the most useful for theory building (Eisenhardt and Graebner 2007;

but, most of all, an answer to the following questions: what are the newkinds of products and services that customerswant?

The important questions are as follows: which activities play a key role in enabling businesses to access new sources of competitive advantage

and find answers to questions of a strategic nature. However, the tool is tuned to interactive exploration rather than static presentation.

or IA lead interacting with the visualizations that formulates questions and new ideas based on the information and patterns seen there.

In reality, the opportunity space is somewhat broader than this definition given that the map can cause the analyst to form questions

and join the best of those to our visualizations to answer questions related to return on investment 11.

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