developing a new clearly defined strategy in order to sharpen its impact on the Luxembourg research landscape.
After the Government's agreement on the list of national priorities, this new strategy and the foresight results were then put together in a new approach:
(or tangible) outputs like reports and websites. 2 We can also observe an increasing interest in foresight activities that aim at supporting strategy formation both at the collective level and at the level of individual organisations.
in strategies and policy programmes) Incorporating forward-looking elements in organisations'internal procedures Facilitating Immediate Effective actions taken Intermediate Formation of action networks Creation of follow-up activities Ultimate
The discussion was intended to develop a comprehensive strategy and vision for municipal RTI policiie by both identifying areas for action and implementing adequate policy measures until the year 2015.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 959 Panel 1 FTI in business Integrative concept for RTI-strategy Panel
report Public Forum Panel 2 Focus on research Panel 3 Science and Panel 4 Urban Panel report Panel report RTI-strategy Vienna Analysis of RTI
As a consequence, they should be addressed by all panels. 3. 3. Viennese RTI strategy goes public:
fields of action and kickoff projects of the official RTI-strategy. As a consequence, the modes of operation of the panels were quite diverse
the final version of the strategy paper had to be agreed with the office of the vice-mayor,
In this final phase, the role of the Municipal Department for EU Strategy and Economic development (MA 27) that was in charge of coordinating the entire foresight
the RTI-strategy of the City of Vienna was presented to an equally large audience of several hundred participants, backed by the mayor, city councillors and key stakeholders.
Six main objectives and targets were formulated for the RTI strategy of the city, which should be achieved by 2015 (City of Vienna 2007a):(
5) Integrating Vienna's RTI in European networks and strengthening co-operation within the CENTROPE region in order to create a common RTI area that will successfully compete in Europe and in the world. 4. 3. From strategy to action:
in order to find their way into the final panel and strategy documents. In other words implicit agendas and objectives had to be made more explicit to provide the basis for the joint definition of future challenges, fields of action and kickoff projects;
strategy document. The inter-panel meetings were crucial in this respect, because on the one hand participants felt obliged to achieve a consensus on initiatives to be suggested for the RTI-strategy,
while on the other hand they had an interest to defend their competencies. In terms of the policy-facilitating function of foresight,
the innovation policy strategy has certainly become a point of reference for many new policy initiatives. Reference is made regularly to the strategy to lend legitimacy to new initiatives and document their compatibility.
The least one can say is that it is perceived widely and acknowledged as a key policy document.
With the official support lent to the strategy by all relevant city councillors it has acquired an official status. The official and political character of the document also has its downsides,
in that some of the more visionary elements that were part of earlier versions of the strategy were eliminated in the final version,
whether at least some of the participatory elements and coordination processes among municipal departments can be established on a permanent basis. Monitoring the implementation of the strategy is planned to be an element of this,
whether and how the results of the monitoring will be processed further to adapt strategy and policy accordingly.
General support to the strategy has been lent by many of the research and innovation performing and facilitating actors outside the local government,
but hardly any specific action has been started firmly yet that would build explicitly on the strategy.
In that sense, strategy contains a rough plan of action. Its implementation has been accelerated by the economic crisis in 2008/2009 that has led to an increase in funding for RTI as part of city's economic
Overall, some elements of the strategy have been defined in such a way that the momentum will be kept for at least the next two or three years.
for instance by the reference made to the strategy documents in new initiatives. However, it is too early to say
as a result of the strategy and to what extent it will influence agenda-setting processes in individual agencies or municipal departments.
the strategy is rather modest and does not suggest major adjustments of a structural or organisational nature.
the Vienna strategy in the end restricted itself mainly to the short-and medium term and explicitly left some of the more controversial long-term issues out (e g. issues of political governance).
in order to ensure the widespread agreement to the strategy, if this is seen as a first step only towards establishing a more strategic and open governance culture. 6. Conclusions The innovation policy foresight
such as the need to avoid politically contentious proposals in the strategy document. In the end, the strategy document becomes official policy.
Second the comparatively short, and thus policy-relevant, time horizon implied that severra important longer-term issues,
but not given much prominence in the final strategy. Avoiding these sensitive issues was necessary to reach consensus on other proposals.
had to be avoided in the strategy. Making conflicting positions explicit, but leaving them open was regarded not an option.
in parallel with a shorter‘official'strategy document that outlines the common ground of urban research and innovation policy.
According tovoß and Kemp (2006,4) reflexive governance‘refers to the problem of shaping societal development in the light of the reflexivity of steering strategies the phenomenon that thinking
It can uncover patterns that reflect competitor strategies 9. It can also enable researchers and R&d managers to gain a global perspective on entire bodies of research.
I check that my search strategy captures most of the Georgia Tech authored papers to help validate the query.!
I phone around to find one local subject matter expert willing to review my search strategy to spot gaps or other weaknesses.
a joint foresight exercise that would provide inputs to this strategy, foster collaboration between these funding agencies and promote foresight and innovation activities at large.
which served to inform albeit indirectly the development of the national strategy and the attendant implementation of several Strategic Centres of Excellence in Science and Technology.
the Finnish Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes) has catalysed extensive consultation processes with researchers and industrialists in its strategy developmmen (Salo and Salmenkaita 2002;
and Technology policy Council of Finland (STPC) should develop by the end June 2006 a national strategy for establishing Strategic Centres of Excellence in Research and Innovation.
respectively) took the initiative to launch a joint foresight exercise thatwould provide informational inputs to the shaping of the national strategy and also other strategic planning processes.
Finnsight has served to inform their respective strategies. In view of citations, Finnsight has served also as a source of information for various regional and organisational strategy processes in Finland.
when the Government took decisions towards the implementation of a national strategy in which the establishment of Strategic Centres of Science,
because the foresight results characterised focal competence areas that would plausibly merit explicit attention in strategy implementation.
or to legitimate results but more proactively to embed them in the strategies of organisations across the economy and society.
and more specifically for foresight, in terms of its inbuilt concern with research and innovation policy or strategy issues.
and helps synchronize the strategies and joint actions of different stakeholders (e g. 39). Efforts reaching the consensus may,
European Strategies in Global economy'',Toulouse, July 7 9, 2008.46 B. Kahane, A. Delemarle, L. Villard, P. Lare'do, Knowledge dynamics and agglomeration phenomena:
writing in strategy+business 1, refers to these new types and levels of risk as interdependent risks.
and evaluate them in the context of the company's strategy, competencies, and mission. 2. The promise The organizations that survive today's marketplace turbulence will be those that can adapt rapidly to change.
when making technology decisions may be an appropriate strategy. The abstract is valuable because it questions conventional wisdom
Strategy consultants! Principal consultants! Marketing and sales staff. Representation from a wide variety of academic and professional backgrounds is helpful as well.
Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 71.2 Stephen Haeckel, Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense
Mckinsey Quarterly 2 (2002) 48 57.7 Mark Buchanan, Power laws and the new science of complexity management, Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 76.
Foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy Luke Georghiou a,,*Jennifer Cassingena Harper b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, MBS, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9pl, UK b Malta Council for Science
and Technology, Villa Bighi, Bighi, Kalkara CSP 12, Malta 1. Introduction The predominant focus of foresight 1 is frequently national research policy and strategy,
or reform innovation policy and strategy, an activity which sometime ago called‘‘wiring up the innovation system''4. In recent years there has been growth in for regional innovation
and innovation policy and strategy together and use of foresight for more joined-up policies and defining the appropriate policy mix.
Available online 18 november 2010 A b s T R A c T The paper addresses the application of foresight to research and innovation policy and strategy.
It has long been understood that foresight in particular has a role in building shared strategies see Georghiou in 1996:‘‘
as firms become increasingly dependent on complementary or external sources of technology, formulation of strategy, previously an internal activity, must at least in part nowbe carried out in the public arena.
) 471.17 R. Coombs, R. R. Ford, L. Georghiou, Generation and Selection of Successful Research projects, A Research Study for the Technology Strategy Forum, 2001.
The Cabinet Office established the Innovation 25 Strategy Council and the Innovation 25 Special Mission,
Technology foresight towards 2020 in China Informative TF2020 aims to provide necessary information for making long term strategy for science and technology development in China,
where policy or strategy implications and priorities are elaborated; and so on. The process usually involves much dialogue,
R &d activities and strategy work Regional and national strategies and priority setting International agreements/strategies/priority setting Expert interviews Delphi surveys, questionnaires Interactive workshops focusing on SWOT
and another differentiation between KM strategies emphasising codification (these are centred ON IT systems, with extensive organisation of data and information resources,
One strategy might be to seek to accompany FTA EXERCISES with companion activities in which issue was taken with core assumptions,
In the UK, there had been major scenario work on strategies for developing a competitive edge in nanotechnology and literature/expert surveying of social issues associated with this field, in the early years of the present century.
a UK strategy for nanotechnology, London, Department of Trade and Industry, 2002 while the original webpage for this text widely cited as‘‘The Taylor Report''has been removed,
During the Cold war nuclear weapons strategies were emphasised by Herman Kahn and others 5 7. The nuclear threat was seed the for the current call for new forms of governance to cope with the regulation of S&t that is now embedded in the combined phenomena of globalisation and glocalisation of business, with effects on every aspect of modern
Each creates a generic rationale that is not tied to the strategy and operations of any specific company or the places in
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 284 CSR strategies may work under certain conditions 24, but they are highly vulnerable to market failures.
and principles of CSR and the GRI reporting into organisational strategies and culture across their value chains. 4 FTSE index date back from 1962,
while reinforcing strategy Strategic CSR Source: Porter and Kramer 29.5 Strategic philanthropy, also know as creative capitalism 34
How can FTA strategies and methods make sure that the visions of different stakeholders can be represented harmonised
Strategy is always about making choices and success in CSR is no different. It is about choosing
which were in concert with their core strategies. It then becomes critical to understand how FTA practices can support the need to choose which social issues to pursue strategically on a participative, consensus-oriented and inclusive way
and/or recommending priorities, mainly for RTDI policies and strategies, towards that of embedding forward-looking participatory practices in overall processes of strategic policy and decision making.
novonordisk. com/images/Sustainability/sr02/SR2002UK. pdf. 29 M. E. Porter, M. R. Kramer, Strategy & society:
A Soviet View, Progress Publishers, Moscow, 1977, pp. 99 110.42 R. A. Frosch, N e. Gallopoulos, Strategies for Manufacturing, Scientific American 261 (3
Subsequently, Section 4 discusses the implications of the findings on policy and strategy. Finally, Section 4 draws the overall conclusions and rounds off the paper. 2. Definitions of terminology Trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities,
innovations and business-institutional strategies 6. A critical concept associated with being a driver is the level of uncertainty.
which may be amenable to changes according to one's strategic choices, investments, R&d activities or foresight knowledge and strategies.
One tool is called Strategy Signals, which aims to collect weak signals inside of an organization. The tool is developed by the Finnish company Fountain Park. 5 Another tool for using weak signals in organizations is called the Futures Windows 5, in
J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 310 4. Conclusions and implications on policy and strategy The following implications from the outputs of the Big Picture Survey
Before joining Technopolis, Thomas worked at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR) and in management consulting (Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and NFO Infratest.
and the nature of its impact, are understood well Related concept Great uncertainty Uncertainty Riska Strategies Build awareness about reasons for fundamental limits to knowledge Attempt to anticipate,
and their quantification Reduce exposure to the hazardous agent Strategy type Precaution Precautionary prevention Prevention Examples Car friendly urban policy in the 1960's leading to congestion several years
where‘‘high''is good for an agent (a performance measure) an agent (taxi driver) aspires (has a strategy to) be on a high peak (making a big profit).
but also explore the landscape far way to identify other options (objectives, strategies, and policies) and not cut off future options.
Evolution-type strategies are used often in a fitness landscape, which means that a balance of optimisation
and to generate both optimum and (currently) non-optimum alternative potential strategies and options. In short, complexity can be summed up in the simple phrase,
Agents, of a variety of types, use their strategies, in patterned interaction, with each other and with artefacts.
Performance measures on the resulting events drive the selection of agents and/or strategies through processes of error-prone copying and recombination,
and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration, including some that sound negative, impossible or ludicrous now. 3. Improving foresight application reframing One way to think of all of these ideas together is as different ways of seeing,
or more simply as reframing the future landscape and potential strategies, options, and potential policies.
use their strategies (rules...1 Minimise time to find customer 2 Go where customer wants 1 Avoid crowding neighbours 2 Steer towards the average heading of neighbours 3 Move toward the average position of neighbours...
drive the selection of agents and/or strategies...Drivers who don't make enough profit go out of business Taxies that are damaged reduce drivers'profits Die
Try out strategies of other successful drivers jumping lights, cleaning taxi Try out strategies to get to best food-position in flock fly faster, slower...
changing the frequencies of the types within the system More successful drivers, fewer new drivers, more cleaner taxies More faster birds,
and to generate both optimum and (currently) non-optimum alternative potential strategies and options. In terms of policy making‘‘
Promoting variation can provide a response to several of the requirements of foresight techniques identified above in Section 2. For example it can contribute to generating a range of future options and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration.
and evaluate the policy instruments deployed to promote variation 4. Identify alternative policy options that can minimize the impacts from the any identified risks 4. Remove the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies 4. Incorporate feedback from the‘‘grassroots''level
and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration, including some that sound negative, impossible or ludicrous now.
and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration, including some that sound negative, ludicrous,
These experiences should be of interest to those involved in long-range strategy planning. Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
and energy strategy for Finland 1. The time horizon in the climate and energy strategy was 2020,
These two works (foresight report and strategy) supported and complemented each other. Before FFRC was invited to facilitate the scenario process,
and Energy Strategy and were based on previous research. The assumptions can be understood as best guesses of the operational environment of the coming decades
Notes 1. Summary of the strategy is available on the web site of the Ministry of Employment and the Economy:
the actor can rely on some predictability to improve the chances of his strategy, and this refers to the enabling character of emerging irreversibilities.
With this strategy they have been successful in getting several Venture capital grants over the first few years of existence 19,20.
innovative territorial strategies that can reconcile the viewpoints of a wide range of stakeholders. Third, it forms expert networks to exchange
feeding new elements and values into them, empowering local agents and providing legitimacy to territorial strategies.
The proposed approach shows the way that a future urban vision can be VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 319 translated into practical, measurable strategies to guide territorial development in the long term.
it should be feasible to formulate strategies for guiding future development. Once again, this step requires involvement by stakeholders.
Regional governments play a clear role in setting territorial strategies, which take into consideration local interests
and local governments can dictate territorial strategies and urban guidelines, but they are under strict control and surveillance by the authorities in Brussels and Madrid.
and guided by a common long-range strategy. Major outputs of the planning process are the creation of new natural sites, the provision of a high quality public transport system and the rehabilitation of integral parts of a city.
Spatial development in the study area will take place as follows (see Figure 9). Territorial management strategies will not incorporate the principles of sustainable development extensively,
formulating strategies After determining functional, parametric and spatial implications, formulating strategies for future urban development appears to be a quite logical and deductive step in the proposed methodological approach.
Findings from the implications analysis generate a SWOT matrix in which gaps between the future scenario and the present situation can be perceived easily.
therefore constitutes a logical basis for formulating strategies. A few sample strategies are suggested below for each scenario.
Suggested strategies for Scenario A. The green paradigm scenario offers a favourable context to successfully tackle the major challenges such as fighting climate change
undertaking territorial planning or improving energy efficiency. Nevertheless, prospering in Scenario A will mean a major transformation in the Spanish society,
Suggested strategies for Scenario B. In the predator development scenario Spanish society is somewhat self-indulgent
Suggested strategies for Scenario C. The back to basics scenario is dominated by a high level of social frustration due to a longstanding economic recession and the lack of an adequate response by previous governments.
and strategies that seek to anticipate and in some cases shape technological futures 2. It was used first by the European commission's (EC) Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) as a common umbrella term for technology foresight
strategies and tools designed to anticipate and shape technological futures (Rader and Porter, 2008). In addition, this particular community of scholars and practitioners has managed also to provide a collective definition of FTA,
This was, in fact, the strategy tool chosen by the project to reflect on alternative futures for law and legal systems.
Furthermore, the scenarios can be used‘‘to assess how existing strategies perform in different global legal environments.
and monitoring their performance (i e. data gathering and reporting strategies) and practices to review existing regulations (Blind, 2006).
Based on data mining techniques, intelligence-based tactics and information communication strategies, predictive policing demonstrates that Law,
3. These various tools and strategies differ according to the range of technology targeted, the time horizon span, their goals and outcomes, etc.
as well as a common strategy in their network of relationships, with support of FTA, in order to achieve coherence among network partners in progressing towards higher levels of sustainability.
their strategies should simultaneously be based on a‘culture of inertia'(on the historical paths), and on a‘culture of swiftness'(on the constantly forming potentialities of the future).
Strategy & Leadership 33, no. 3: 11 6. Edsall, R, . and K. L. Larson. 2006.
ontological unpredictability becomes increasingly important for innovation policy and strategy. The analysis of the nature of ontological unpredictability explains why future-oriented technology analysis
and strategy are explored. The paper introduces the idea of‘ontological unpredictability 'and shows how innovation leads to unpredictability that cannot be removed by more accurate data or incremental improvements in existing predictive models.
and strategy, as well as for characterising the limitations of evidence-based policy-making in innovation-intensive societies and economies.
Implications for strategy and policy-making When true uncertainty and ontological expansion are important, formal models rarely provide useful predictions.
The impact of cognitive biases on strategy. Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences 16, no. 2: 105 17.
Strategy creation in the periphery: Inductive versus deductive strategy making. Journal of Management Studies 40, no. 1: 57 82.
Rosen, R. 1985. Anticipatory systems: Philosophical, mathematical and methodological foundations. Oxford: Pergamon Press. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 751 Rossel, P. 2009.
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon Foresight methodologies and their implementation in science, technology and social fields.
A third objective of foresight is to build a consensual vision of the future in order to harmonise strategies of the different stakeholders.
They regard this as the right strategy because they assume that others will do the same:
and strategies A general assumption is that expectations can play such a big role due to the inherent uncertaiint of technological development (Antonelli 1989).
Such countervaailin strategy, again, is weakened by the dynamics of expectation, because stakeholders may be new, but their contribution will draw from a more general repertoire (Nahuis and Van Lente 2008).
Within Philips Design, the‘Trends and Strategy'team has been devoted to the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 790 R. Vecchiato investigation of three axes‘Society'‘
while emerging trend investigations are scheduled yearly to fit in with the annual strategy calendar. As with Philips, foresight efforts at Siemens aim at identifying strong discontinuities and disruptions in markets and technologies so that they can be acted upon quickly.
Discussion Our work relates to several fields of research in strategy and organisation. First, we define the concepts of‘boundary'uncertainty
Environmental scanning and organizational strategy. Strategic management Journal 3, no. 2: 159 74. Hamel, G. 2000. Leading the revolution.
Organizational strategy, structure, and process. Newyork: Mcgraw-hill. Milliken, F. J. 1987. Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment:
Integrating the future business environment into innovation and strategy. International Journal of Technology management 34, nos. 3 4: 278 95.
The case for non-predictive strategy. Strategic management Journal 27, no. 10: 981 98. Yin, R. K. 2003.
The objective is to help organisations create a tailored as well as a common strategy in their network of relationships
Such a network has to operate as a cyclical system where value is redefined from Porter's strategies, on cost leadership and differentiation,
which actors in the network participate in defining common vision and strategy. The important questions are as follows:
so that it can shape a strategy to achieve the desired vision of sustainable development and implement the designed plan to meet this vision,
so that one can redefine its strategy and shape a new plan for the next cycle of improvement.
its operatiiona activities must be integrated throughout its network and in alignment with a common strategy across the network.
and the intangible assets underlying sustainable development are partnerships, strategy, communication, competencies, motivation, technology and operations. These are needed the activities for the creation of value in sustainable development (Cagnin 2005.
and strategy to a long-term common vision of where an organisation wants to position itself within possible alternative futures.
The link between learning and strategy around a common vision in the network enables trust to be developed across the system through participatory instruments.
and mobilisation of necessary skills and resources towards a common target, aligning therefore strategy and operations across the system.
Consequently, a business can build a tailored, common strategy throughout its network of relationships: it may also influence partners in their progress towards higher levels of sustainable development.
As a reminder, the model seeks to enable a common strategy and/or strategies aligned across the network,
founded on a shared vision for sustainable development to be pursued by all actors, with interdependent and agreed roles;
Maturity levels 3-Managed with no 4-Excellence at corproate 5-High-performance Value activity 1-Ad hoc 2-Planned in isolation integration level sustainability net Strategy-Overhead,
strategies and activities aligned and integrated across the net-Collaborative innovation and continuous sustainability performance improvement system,
synchronised with the strategy-Flexible infrastructure basis to enable communication and information flow through the firm;
and estabilishing basic processes that are linked not to strategy; end-of-pipe solutions; individual abilities-Policies support practicces aim to reduce impacts with better use of materials and natural resources-Structured processes/activities-Firm-wide understandiin of activities, roles and responsibilities-Idea
and reviewing the vision of sustainability Strategy Establish leadership commitment; and strategic architecture definition and review Partnerships Identify
alignment definition and review Design the business Defining and reviewing the strategy to implement the vision of sustainability Strategy Strategic and tactical planning definition and review Partnerships Partnerships selection;
and monitoring relevant information to keep the business on track of its vision of sustainability Strategy Performance, environment, capabilities, constraints, opportunities,
and is now a senior advisor of STI (Science, Technology and Innovation policy and strategy at CGEE.
Strategy & Leadership, 28, no. 4: 21 6. MCB University Press. Bovet, D. M. and J. A. Martha. 2000e.
Towards a dynamic theory of strategy. Strategic management Journal 12 (S2), 95 117. Porter, M. E. 1997.
What is strategy? Harvard Business Review, 61 78. Rocha, I. 2003. Gestão de Organizações: Pensamento Científico, Inovação, Ciência e Tecnologia, Auto-Organização, Complexidade e Caos, Ética e Dimensão Humana.
Match your change strategy to your organization's maturity. Nonprofit World 21, no. 5: 19 20.
Appendix 1. Research overall strategy Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 816 C. Cagnin
and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed
Strategy ILO Strategy UNGC KCGCB Strategy CRT Lisbon Strategy CRT KCGCB CRT UNGC CRT UNGC GSPSR UNGC NS UNGC KCGCB
and essential to achieve a cooperative and systematic network Strategy It is the business commitment with a set of principles, values and policies
and build a common set of values Technology An effective integration of social and environmental strategies can be supported strongly by theuse of IT.
Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy
Run the business D It is to implement the defined strategy and its designed plan every day.
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