strategies should simultaneously be based on a‘culture of inertia',on the historical paths, and on a‘culture of swiftness',on the constantly forming potentialities of the*Corresponding author.
strategies should build on robust historical paths, and they should also foster future-oriented adaptability. We propose that this paradox could be tackled by fostering two systemic capacities:(
In this situation, strategies should be constantly‘on the move, 'and based on‘future beacons'that are locked only temporarily.
'The first component of the systemic transformation capacities, enabling the mobile strategies, is a partial structural openness that endorses flexibility in responding to the systemic flows, such as changes in the business environment or in the customer's innovation processes.
either based on an organisation's strategy clock or when a critical need, such as a change in the environment, emerges.
Second is the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping, in which the roadmapping is perceived more as a dynamic
and short-to medium-term strategies to realise this vision. Here, we call this methodology process-based roadmapping.
This visual emphasis enables the use of roadmaps as crystallised strategy charts that open simultaneous perspectives both on macro-level currents
This idea of a roadmap as a crystallised strategy chart separates roadmapping from other‘generic'foresight methods, such as Delphi or scenario processes.
Roadmapping can be considdere as a meta-level visualisation of an organisational strategy that could utilise the inputs from Delphi or scenario exercises,
Process-based strategy roadmapping is methodologically more flexible and exploratory than traditiiona technology roadmapping. The roadmaps are approached not as hermetic plans to achieve definite goals (e g. new products),
produce a visual strategy manuscript for an organisattion Strategy roadmapping is also about engaging and empowering people (see Ahlqvist et al. 2010).
This idea links strategy roadmapping to organisation and strategy studies, especially to strategy crafting (see e g.
Therefoore the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping should not be viewed as a‘pure'foresight methodology, but more as a hybrid of foresight and organisational strategy crafting.
Roadmapping can be used in strategy processes, for example, in the following ways (Figure 2: The first way is the building of a common vision.
for making a subcontractor strategy. The sixth way is to read roadmaps as temporal sequences, that is,
and market drivers Strategy Strategic and holistic view of the research objects Strategic capacity of the organisation and/or entity Holistic roadmaps to be used in long-term strategic planning Technology space
In our model, the knowledge space that analyses these wider socio-technical constellations is the strategy space.
strategy space and social/actor space, RD II scope Our second example applies roadmapping in the context of an organisational development process aimed at establishing a service research network at VTT.
and systemic capacities The SSB roadmap can be perceived as an R&d II type of technology roadmap that aims to contribute to the strategy space and the social/actor space.
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 4. The SSB network operated primarily in the strategy space.
strategy space and visionary space, systemic I scope The third case is an example of a systemic network roadmap.
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy Exercise defined the emerging field of service research
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 5. In the strategy space,
strategy space and visionary space, systemic II scope Our fourth case is Nordic ICT Foresight, an example of a systemic foresight exercise (Ahlqvist et al. 2007a, 2007b.
which aimed to contribute to the strategy space and the visionary space. The project completed a systemic scenario exercise that integrated visionary components
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 6. Nordic ICT Foresight operated primarily in the strategy space.
From a capacity perspective, the project aimed to construct a basis for understanding the Nordic region as a‘common strategy region'in the ICT context.
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy Assessing the implications of the ICT applications in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway,
and Sweden) Constructing a basis for understanding Nordic region as a‘common strategy region'in the ICT context Forming a perspective of ICT convergence in the Nordic region (fragmented modularisation ubiquitous) Evaluating the value and meaning
abilities at Nordic regional level Construction of implementation strategies Visionary Building long-term visionary glimpses to the futures of ICT applications and adoption of ICT in Nordic region Aimed at systemic
Built capacity for systemic resilience at Nordic regional level Identification of‘black swan'type of development options Construction of visionary adaptive strategies on the basis of assessment of alternatives to build
and constructed explicit implementation strategies. The project also functioned in the visionary space. It built long-term visionary glimpses of the adoption of ICT applications on the scale of the Nordic region.
On this basis, the project fostered so-called adaptive strategies, that is, identification disruptive strategic‘holes'for Nordic ICT development.
The Nordic ICT Foresight aimed to foster the visionary notions of‘Nordic innovation culture'and‘common strategy region'in the context of ICT applications.
The fundamentals and competencies need to be positioned in the context of‘mobile strategies'that enable the continuous elaboration of targets and the planning of actions.
process-based roadmapping is one potential avenue for the construuctio of such mobile strategies. On the basis of the cases, it can be assessed that roadmapping is most applicable to processes aimed either at the technology space, the social/actor space,
or the strategy space. In the case of the visionary space, methods that bring more creative latitude,
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methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable growth through science and technology. It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
In the USA,‘‘A Strategy for American Innovation: Driving towards Sustainable growth and Quality Jobs''was formulated in 2009 (Executive Office of the President, 2009),
which was revised as‘‘A Strategy for American Innovation: Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity''in 2011 (National Economic Council, 2011.
In Japan, the status of science and technology policy in the national grand strategy has changed significantly as its GDP growth rate stagnates in the face of intensified international competition and a falling birth rate and aging population.
and maintenance of education level by standardization 12-E Strategy toward a sustainable infrastructure systemb Notes:
A Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth, European commission, Brussels. Executive Office of the President (2009), A Strategy for American Innovation:
National Economic Council (2011), Strategy for American Innovation: Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity, National Economic Council, Council of economic advisors, Office of Science and Technology policy, WASHINGTON DC.
and technology, including some that use a mission-oriented approach within the framework of societal needs defined by the so-called‘‘High-tech Strategy''.
of the High-tech Strategy. Forward-looking Projects are designed to map out scientific and technological developments over a period of ten to 15 years in specific areas
a panel of high-ranking experts that advises on the implementation of the High-tech Strategy. The final, seventh, step of the Strategic dialogue resulted in a pragmatic vision for a‘‘CO2-neutral,
In a more tangible sense, the European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006) although not couched at the time in precisely the same language of PAGE 30 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013‘‘grand challenges''set out a similar framework for addressing the critical
The seven challenges identified by the EU's SD strategy are: 1. climate change and clean energy;
or strategies actively addressed through specific initiative, policy strategy. 5 has had your organisation contact with other governments internationally in discussing these drivers and trends?
's Grand Societal Challenges'',Report of the ETP Expert Group, European commission, Brussels. European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006), Review of the European union Sustainable development Strategy Renewed Strategy, available at:
foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 243-51.
Keywords Priority-setting, Russia, Natural resources, Long term planning, Foresight project planning, Innovation, Technology led strategy, Sciences Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In recent years
All Russian hydropower plants together generate just 20 per cent of the electricity produced in the country (Russian Energy Strategy:
B designing sectoral strategies for industries; B regional priorities for innovation development; and B priorities for international S&t co-operation.
Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector.
design of large-scale innovation projects identification of research projects to be funded within federal and sectoral goal-oriented S&t programmes designing sectoral strategies for industries regional priorities for innovation development priorities
Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector Direct (high) VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 51
and some strategic documents (Geologic Strategy, Water Strategy) were prepared on the basis of the output of the study.
updating the Union's approach in the context of the Lisbon strategy'',COM (2003) 112, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004a),‘Science and technology, the key to Europe's future guidelines for future European union
Russian Energy Strategy: 2030 (2009), Russian Energy Strategy: 2030, Russian Federation, Moscow. Russian Federation (2009), On the Current State and Utilisation of Mineral resources of the Russian Federation in 2009, State Report, Russian Federation, Moscow.
Sokolov, A. 2008a),‘Science and technology foresight in Russia: results of a national Delphi'',3rd International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 16-17 october, Seville, Book of Abstracts.
In addition to the resource-based theory, the modern emphasis is on network approaches to industrial strategy
Therefore, it is not possible generate a viable and appropriate technology strategy without a perception of the changing technical capability of our own industry and that of related industries (Powell and Bradford, 2000.
and develop strategies for future ISTS in order to realize the goal stated in the Lisbon Objective (Fujii,
of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP) Foresight and Strategy Planning Team, Korean Institute of S&t Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), The Science
differences in technology development focus or portfolio strategy can be identified. From Japan's result, technology development is focused more on using different source technologies to conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
''and‘‘focus''technology strategy used in the 3rd Basic Plan on S&tof Japan. South korea seems to be employing a different strategy;
it focuses not only on possible source technologies to conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
and it shows a convergent/divergent dual technology development strategy. In mapping of China's important topics, almost half show interactions within a single technology,
and help to building the desired vision and strategy for developing future technologies. Meanwhile from a resource-based strategic concept, this classification framework can provide a bridge to link the future technology themes with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality,
Hax, A. and Majluf, N. 1996), The Strategy Concept and Process: A Pragmatic Approach, Prentice hall, London.
Resources, Firms and Strategies: A Reader in the Resource-based Perspective, Oxford university Press, Oxford. Orwat, C. 2003),‘WP 1 Review and analysis of national foresight;
and other resources, target audience, communication strategy, etc. Before making these design‘technical'decisions, four issues seem to be particularly relevant
and by trying to develop taxonomies of strategy and policy needs; systems in which FTA is conducted;
The authors claim that the first step for devising a technology strategy is to decide if the technology is worth investing in by better understanding how such technology might develop in the future.
and discontinuity much emphasised by grand challenges, transformations and disruptive changes that claim for adaptation and alignment as coping strategies.
and is now a senior advisor of STI (Science, Technology and Innovation policy and strategy at CGEE.
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon foresight methodologies and their implementation in socioeconomic and technological fields at the supranational, national, regional and sectoral levels. 385 C. Cagnin et al./
and increasingly fierce competition require companies to be innovative, both in their products andmarketing strategies,
and user experience 1. Technology plays a key role among these three components 2. Before the product strategy is formulated,
a technology strategy must be developed to provide competitive products, materials, processes, or system technologies 3. The first step for devising a technology strategy is to decide
if the technology is worth the investment. Howwill the technology develop in the future? Will the technology flourish in the future
A query strategy for nanotechnology has been developed by TPAC at the Georgia Institute of technology 30. We refine our search terms for biosensors based on our earlier research 31
for product lifecycle management, Technical Report, STR/04/058/SP, Singapore Institute of Manufacturing Technology, 2004.3 T. A. Vijay, Challenges in product strategy
Market Manage. 21 (1)( 1992) 23 31.36 E. Hajime, The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy:
All of the extraordinary organizational forms and behavioral strategies that we witness in nature or society have arisen through the process of inheritance with diversification and selection.
and we can say that a lot of work remains to be done to make evolution a viable strategy and school of thought in the study of technology.
Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 2 july 2012 Accepted 27 august 2012 Available online 8 november 2012 Developing strategies,
and policy-making 1 5. The term‘model'refers here to a representation of the most crucial aspects of a system of interest for extracting usable information 6. The term‘decision-making'is used here for the act or process of making strategies or conscious decisions
Hence, it is not necessary to design a strategy for this region; this uncertainty subspace consists of acceptable scenarios in terms of CO2 avoidance
and to explore possible strategies to cope with or prevent certain undesirable dynamics. 3. 2. Adaptive planning for airport development The air transport industry operates in a rapidly changing context.
but in particular the second case, showed how the ability to cope with uncertainties can help in iteratively developing dynamic adaptive strategies that are robust across a large part of the uncertainty space.
At a strategic level, the European union took up this challenge via the Innovation Union Flagship Initiative as part of the Europe 2020 strategy launched in 2010.
Futures thinking is an essential element of developing such a strategy. For example, Hamel and Prahalad 17 emphasize that strategy should draw up consistent visions of the future.
In addition several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18 23.
including a palette of strategies to reach this situation 54. The concept of roadmapping has its roots in science
It is accepted widely that a vision about the future is an essential element of a strategy 16,17.
Secondly, we argue that the use of cooperative strategies, i e. participatory scenario analysis, is required to produce a variety of possible,
The Link Between Future and Strategy, Palgrave Macmillan, New york, 2003.21 M. E. Porter, Competitive advantage, Free Press, New york, 1985.22 G. Ringland, The role of scenarios in strategic foresight, Technol.
Guiding Exploratory Innovation and Strategy, the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: 12 & 13,may 2011, May 13 2011.71 O. Saritas, J. Aylen, Using scenarios for roadmapping:
and implement their funding strategies 26. The whole variety of these processes were used to initiate collective learning
The main difference is that in the field of nanotechnology the funding strategies were implemented before broader public discourses emerged,
whereas in the field of converging technologies broad futuristic discourses took place that were followed not by funding strategies dedicated explicitly to converging technologies. 445 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting
In 2003, the BMBF developed a national strategy for future funding and support of nanotechnology.
The strategy focused on so-called lead innovations, value chain-oriented collaborative projects with partners from science and industry.
In 2006, the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) established the Nanokommission a stakeholder commission on nanotechnologies as part of the federal government's high-tech strategy.
In 2007, the Nano-Initiative Action Plan 2010 emerged as an important part of the high-tech strategy of the German government.
rather than future strategies) without mentioning past or future cooperation and collaboration among ministries and agencies of the federal government 52.
such as other ministries and their agencies (for instance the BMU and the Federal Environment Agency) stepped in only after the funding strategy was established already.
In Germany other ministries and government agencies have their own agendas with regard to the future governance of nanotechnology without being part of a common board where strategies are compared and aligned.
and engineering under a broad definition of nanotechnology and served as the foundation in developing long-term R&d visions and strategies.
while in Germany many different agendas were developed in parallel without a common strategy. Comparing these two countries, the main difference lies in the existence of an umbrella organization in the US that pools heterogeneous stakeholders
Increasingly, innovation policy strategies such as the European commission's Innovation Union flagship initiative 3 are addressing socioeconomic challenges such as sustainability, health, and security.
& Social Change In such mission-oriented STI strategies the socioeconomic impact becomes the key criterion for STI priority setting.
The discussion among policy makers went beyond simple priority setting within today's strategies. The debate tackled fundamental concerns such as adequate consultation procedures
critical success factors for the 1990's, R&d Manag. 22 (3)( 1992) 221 239.11 W c. Kim, R. Mauborgne, Strategy, value innovation,
A Practitioner's Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today's Uncertain Times, Thomson Southwestern, Mason, Ohio, 2006.33 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory innovation, Int
Participants heard about the evolving technology strategy of one of Europe's leading companies. Since the 1990s Nokia would have been on any list of European industrial success stories as it rose to global leadership in themobile telephony sector.
transformations and disruptive change while references to adaptation and alignment hinted at strategies for coping Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 Corresponding author at:
foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy, Futures 43 (3)( 2011) 243 251.10 L. Georghiou, Europe's research system must change, Nature 452 (2008) 935
Jennifer Cassingena Harper is a consultant providing advice on research and innovation policy and strategy to the Malta Council for Science and Technology.
and monitoring of complex dynamic systems and may enable organizations to use long-term visions to effectively link strategy and operations across the whole value chain.
While the technology assessment crowd and the small but regularly present business oriented strategy practitioners voiced worries about the‘‘scientific''legitimacy and practical effectiveness of the at times open ended and exploratory nature of thinking about the future.
The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005, and the Danish research 2015 process, from 2008,
The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005, and the Research2015 process, from 2008. In both cases, the impacts have been significant and largely measurable in new legislation and budget allocations.
The Globalisation Strategy and the Research2015 process are two attempts to combine the strong Danish tradition for political compromises, negotiations and stakeholder inclusion with evidence-and expertise-based prospective elements.
The Globalisation Strategy and the Research2015 project. P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 10‘Denmark has had never strong traditions for basing political decisions on accessible knowledge as opposed to Sweden, for instance.
Based on the Danish Globalisation Strategy from 2005, public expenditures on R&d have increased. Consequently, today, Denmark is among the OECD countries with the highest public expenditures on R&d.
Another major initiative of the Globalisation Strategy was an increase in the percentage of public research funding that should be subject to competition.
The strategy contains the following statement:‘.‘the Government will take the initiative to implement a project on technology foresight in Denmark.
The Globalisation Strategy and the Research2015 project This section briefly describes two cases of forward-looking policy making in Denmark.
First, the section describes the Danish government's 2005 Globalisation Strategy. The Globalisation Strategy aimed at a very broad range of policy areas.
This strategy provided political impetus for the Research2015 project, which is the second case. Research2015 aimed to set priorities for the government's strategic research programme or at least, parts of this programme. 4. 1. The government's Globalisation Strategy In the spring of 2005,
the government launched a process that was to meet the Grand challenge of increasing globalisation. The aim was to meet this challenge by developing a vision
and a strategy for transforming Denmark into a leading growth, knowledge and entrepreneurial society. The work was set up in the wake of the government programme‘‘New Goals,
''which the reelected government presented after the general election in February 2005. The government established an internal Committee of Ministers and a broad-based Council for Globalisation,
which was meant to advise the Committee Ministers on this strategy. The Globalisation Council consisted of 26 members,
The two last meetings covered the overall strategy. The intermediate meetings involved the discussion of nine themes.
In light of the Globalisation Council's work, in April 2006, the government presented an overall strategy for Denmark in the global economy:‘
‘Progress, Innovation and Cohesion Strategy for Denmark in the Global economy'31. The Globalisation Strategy had 14 focus areas.
The following are examples:‘‘1. World's top performing primary and lower secondary school'and‘8. More competition and better quality in public sector research'.
'For each of the focus areas, the Globalisation Strategy defined two to four strategic objectives
The Globalisation Strategy garnered wide party support in the parliament, including both the three parties behind the government
and two opposition parties. 4. 2. The Research2015 project One of the suggested initiatives for the Globalisation Strategy concerned a‘better basis for prioritising,
The key actors in this phase were the five negotiators from each of the five parties that were behind the Globalisation Strategy.
P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 13 4. 3. Discussion of the cases Neither Research2015 nor the Globalisation Strategy was recognised by their key
Considering Danish society's low uncertainty avoidance, the initiation and implementation of a long-term planning project such as the Globalisation Strategy might be contradictory.
such as the Globalisation Strategy's initiatives on political priority setting for strategic research and the allocation of 50%more public funding for research, require a degree of risk taking
The research policy strategies that were agreed upon can be enforced as more legitimate and plausible. In this sense, the networking
Strategy for Denmark in the Global economy Summary, The Danish Government, Copenhagen, 2006.32 OECD-DASTI Horizon scan, 2007.33 Teknologisk Institut, Evaluering af Forsk2015.
and strategies for the entire province) respectively (see 18 and 19). In the development process of the first environment plan, qualitative scenarios were developed by an external organisation in a broad participatory process.
The scenarios were used to reflect on the strategies of the city council's urban development Investment Programme.
The first study conducted by the authors examined how Dutch departments use foresight to develop policy and strategy 23(‘policy foresight'.
and strategy are related in policy processes at a national level, this was not a problem
policy and strategy. The response rate was over 40%(120 surveys completed) with a large majority of the respondents (88%)working for Dutch Ministries (such as Justice and Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality.
'and, more generally, for formulating strategy and deciding what type of knowledge will become important in the future.
P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 21 When the main motive for using foresight methods is not necessarily a desire to realise a concrete policy end-product (such as an agenda, vision or strategy),
(2) inspiring civil servants to come up with new ideas for policy and strategy,(3) setting the agenda.
For example, combining insights from a future analysis with the development of a policy vision and various strategies was seen as a sluggish process.
P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 22 flexibility of strategies, which was not how they were applied in most case studies (with the exception of The hague), because of a lack of time or expertise.
and strategies is also (in part) lacking. Often, it was unclear how the insights from the foresight study were applied in the policy analyses.
An exploratory study into the relationship between futures research and strategy and policy processes at Dutch ministries, Futures 41 (2009) 607 618.24 P. A. van der Duin, J. Dirven, C
Foresight has been applied at global and regional levels to support the design and implementation of policies and strategies.
The latter claims that foresight needs to go beyond the level of a collective process to that of individual actors'strategies.
Cooperative Strategies in International Business Joint ventures and Technology Partnerships Between Firms, 2nd ed.,Pergamon, Amsterdam, 2002.20 C a. Bartlett, S. Ghoshal, Managing Across Borders the Transnational
The IMS Summer School Manufacturing Strategy First Edition 2010: Sustainable Manufacturing, 2010.34 D. Klimkeit, Organizational context and collaboration on international projects:
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