Topic

Future topics (17)
New topics (11)
Topic (405)

Synopsis: Topic: Topic:

While on the one hand (over-)optimistic expectations may be important to increase the momentum of a topic in public or political discourse,

Based on the results of the last workshop for funding organizations, three working groups were formed such that each consisted of funding organizations with shared interests in the topic of the working group.

Thematically, the workshops focused on the following topics: i) New value added products and production, ii) Sustainable forestry and iii) Wood products.

This topic is of specific interest due to the fact that no common evaluation and assessment approach for foresight exercises has been developed to date.

The evaluation noted too that public consultation at an earlier stage would have benefited particular topics

and found extensive discussion and study of this topic, but limited instances of clearly documented FTA3 activities (p. 2). Although the‘sponsors'of the reviewed exercises range from a single university to international organisations (the EU, OECD and UNESCO),

and content scoring remains a subjective process. 2. Application to distributed design environments Our purpose in exploring this topic is to better consider the information needs of designers.

as these pages are rarely directly relevant to the topic under consideration. Many social network analysts are structuralists.

No Topic Node Topic Percent likelihood 11 Internet explorer 25 Rich Internet applications 80.7%11 Internet explorer 37 W3c 80.7%25 Rich Internet applications 37

Each group was presented with a set of questions tailored to highlight topics relevant to this specific audience.

underscoring the following four topics: regional and community structures and infrastructures; knowledge, labour and welfare;

For the evaluation of the topics, a set of criteria was worked out. This was the basis for an online survey but also the pre-judgements of the selection phase.

and interviewed in order to find the most promising topics in research and technology for the next 10 to 15 years or even further in the future.

These topics should still be in the research or development phase during this time. Topics that will already be in the implementation phase during the next years,

or are transferred already to innovations in 10 years'time were excluded from the lists of topics to be considered.

For first selections a set of criteria was developed together with BMBF. Fig. 1. Combination of different methods. 1188 K. Cuhls et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 The topics were handled, internally assessed and reassessed several times via an internal database and scientific papers.

The milestones of the process are described in Fig. 2. The first workshop was held as a starting point in the process to define those topics which should be elaborated in more detail,

and working out the fields but also for coordinating with other topic coordinators in the crosscutting areas.

and informal talks to arrive at an impression of the importance and potential impact of the huge number of topics under consideration.

Topics, in which BMBF or German research institutions were already very active at that point in time were labelled as‘golden

The second phase (see Fig. 2) of the searches ended with a first assessment of the topics that were found.

in order to get broader assessment on the topics, their importance and their time frame (see below.

Nevertheless, this conference marked the beginning of the integration of the topics that were identified into the German innovation system and into BMBF.

Especially the online survey which had the function of focussing the topics as well as an assessment function is described in more detail (Fig. 3). 3. 1. Starting phase of the process The process started with 14 broader topic fields that were derived from the German High-tech Strategy 2,

Services Science In a first workshop with 110 participants in November 2007, these 14 thematic fields were discussed with respect to emerging topics

In this second phase, the most interesting (crosscutting) topics from the starting phase were elaborated further by the topic coordinators with specific expertise.

parts were different for those panel members who had a general overview over all topics

During this second phase of the foresight process, the 14 topics were confirmed, renamed, split, converged and newly formulated.

In order to assess the relevance of all the topics (fields and sub-areas), a nationwide online survey was carried out in September 2008.

but with science and technology push topics. Therefore, the criteria to be matched incorporated some of the demand aspects

and asked what the topics are relevant for: quality of life, the economy, the environment etc. The topics that were chosen

and identified during the search phase should be checked and by a broader information base, which also means by more persons.

also from crosscutting topics. The subjective bias 15, of working out topics should be minimised. And also the topics were very heterogeneous,

which means a differentiation according to relevancy and future sustainability were necessary. The online survey was designed as a check

if the topics that were already found as future-relevant for German science and technology landscape are really relevant and if theymeet the criteria of the process.

In order to keep it simple and user-friendly, itwas designed in away that it had different levels

The concept was that every participant could choose himself which topics to judge. The principle of the concept of the online survey questionnaire is shown in Fig. 4. The first page of the online survey explained the BMBF Foresight process and the online survey in general.

The selection of the topics for the survey were not all topics regarded as relevant in general those topics,

in order to judge later on if the high level experts assess the topics differently from the mainstream. The expertise was the only criteria

very different topics were judged with very high expertise. For the result, that was insignificant. As an incentive, all participants who included their e-mail received the summarised results (beginning of 2009.

and topics was the major motivation for participation. The results were valid and could be used for analysis. Most of the topics were estimated to be very relevant to medium relevant in the future.

Therefore, the differentiation in the end was difficult. But in detail, there were differences when looking at the relevancy for economy, relevancy for the quality of life, relevancy for the environment, and so on...

this is the ranking of those topics, in which many persons ticked the problem acceptance. These are unaccepted the most research topics for the future.

e g. the generally low acceptance of nuclear power even leads to an estimated low acceptance on security topics here,

On the basis of the survey, topics that will no longer be on the research agenda in 10 years'time,

the topics are not new, well-known and do need not further or additional attention. The online survey is a contribution to the assessment phase,

The criteria already defined were refined to specify the selection which was also the basis for detailing the topics.

the topics that were defined as future fields and future topics for BMBF were worked out in different papers. For this, a last assessment by the international Monitoring Panel (second wave of partly standardised interviews) took place to validate the results.

or crosscutting topics, along the lines of examples from the past. The guiding questions were therefore:

and topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and longer be rapidly

In five parallel working groups, different aspects of research and innovation policy around novel topics will be discussed: Organisation of scientific communities Establishment of research alliances Research programmes and initiatives Innovation policy instruments Ideation A round-table discussion enhanced this discussion

or crosscutting topics. The challenge for the BMBF Foresight process from 2009 onwards was the design of concrete strategies to address some of the topics identified.

However, this is far from straightforward as foresight outcomes tend to challenge established configurations by pointing to long-term issues that reach across boundaries of scientific disciplines, industrial sectors and departments in industry, research institutes

To start the integration of the topics into BMBF, first talks already took place with departments that showed interests in certain topics.

These talks centered around the topics themselves and the preparation of potential workshops. These talks and first workshops took place in spring 2009.

All of them were tailor-made adapted to the needs of the BMBF departments (as a kind of service)

or proposed to deepen the knowledge of some of the topics by inviting external experts

It depends on the topics if further searches and a deeper discussion on the topics and their specific areas are necessary

or if it is more about identifying actors, innovation policy measures or other issues. When this paper is written,

and deliver some first preliminary impressions of topics that would be the start of the search phase.

But often, they have difficulties in integrating crosscutttin topics or defining responsibilities (and budgets) for them.

Creating awareness for these topics is expected already to have an effect in the ministry. In these cases, the expected impact of the process will be an addition to the research agenda,

Gaining an overview about topics that are relevant for and in science and technology with a longer-term view

Expert means a person knowledgeable about the topic, it can be someone from industry, policy-making itself, academia or the civil society in general.

and explain the topics, but also to assess them according to a set of BMBF criteria. For this, in a broad online survey, many participants are approached to involve more persons than the well-known lobbies in the definition and the assessment of new topics.

Also for them, in joint workshops and discussions, the topics and outcomes will be worked into recommendations for policy options.

and especially crosscutting topics (objectives 1 and 2). The question of adaptive foresight remains 19, p. 472.

Previous processes often tackled topics that were too broad for the ministry to handle (e g. the society in general.

The process is in its first search phases open to all topics, but stress science and technology because other topics may not be implemented directly by a BMBF.

Therefore, those topics which are not directly BMBF topics are handed over to others by raising their awareness.

They can be implemented by others in the innovation system or be part of strategic partnerships (objective no. 3)

The BMBF Foresight process is intended to keep a certain distance to lobbies of topics on the one hand, but integrate them with a neutral perspective on the other hand.

The information and topics gained in these processes may also be interesting for other actors in the innovation system.

Further on in the continued foresight, BMBF will be involved more directly the more the topics to be focused on are identified,

and included in the detailing of the topics, so that finally strategic partnerships and policy recommendations can be made.

These will help to implement the longer-term topics directly, even if there is still enough time to prepare the implementation.

To have already interesting topics worked out and ready to be implemented can also be a particular chance beyond any political party.

and discuss if the topics of the discussion are more crosscutting in nature and do not lie in the focus of the department's own responsibilities.

and could have a decisive impact on the topic at hand) and plot them on two axes to structure the subsequent development of four diverging scenario stories.

or co-authored several contributions to academic journals and books on these topics. Teresa Ribeiro heads the Strategic Futures Group of the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen, Denmark.

while individual committees work on specified topics, reporting the outcome upwards and in parallel to the management group and the supra-committee.

The focus topics are complex, uncertain and involve multiple actors working at multiple levels shot through with anticipatory strategies and expectations on risks and benefits of the emerging technology field.

This creates a requirement for rich and easy to digest strategic intelligence for which can prepare the ground for interactive workshops on complex and highly uncertain topics such as nanotechnology.

and other topics. Against this background I propose that there is a clear gap in the literature so far regarding the shifting natures of selection environments

RRI topics begin to fork as actors focus either on Speculative Ethics 41 and nearteer Health Safety and Environment issues.

A discussion on this topic can be found in Kaivo-oja 2001. However, foresight seen in the light of three of the traditions are described in the following:(

Both national research councils and research programmes often channel money to new and important emerging research areas and topics.

integrated with specific current topics and relevant perspectives. During the process a parallel discussion took place about a new measure to be employed in the council's funding function.

Research activities will mainly cover the topic of molecular diagnostics with a 5-year budget of¤140 million.

the FNR serves as Luxembourg's national funding agency in supporting the development of research competences in topics of national interest Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 936 F. Glod et al. through multi

The latter was combined with the findings of interviews to generate an initial‘long-list'of topics to be tested'by the research community.

who generally lacked the breadth of domain knowleddg to reliably position S&t topics into the schema.

Once the topics were established, Table 1. Levels of‘granularity'for mapping research areas (a few examples are shown).

2014 942 F. Glod et al. the panels were asked to build a case for the prioritisation of the topic using SWOT analyses

Regenerative and Infectious diseases but instead to develop this programme along the lines of the topics originally identified by the Foresigght The FNR felt that these topics,

being a subsection of the wider topic, were a better means of focusing its resources.

This of course begs the question of what other instruments might support the wider development of this particular topic and of the domain priorities as a whole.

In addition, four crosscutting topics were included in the work of all panels:(1) Gender aspects;(2) Human resources;(

These four crosscutting topics were regarded also as crucial for the future, but there were less clearly defined political responsibilities in place for dealing with them.

Several topics were being repeated among the young people, such as improved care for the elderly, improved child welfare and improved health care.

and downloaded on a given topic at no additional costs. Various databases compile information on journal and conference papers

download the resulting records covering the topic of interest. The resulting information for btech miningq consists primarily of science and technology (S&t) publication and patent abstract records.

The publication trends (lower left) show this nano-combo of topics increasing strongly in contrast to the other clusters.!

, identifying an active researcher on a particular topic.!Technology Forecasting QTIP can provide empirical measures for certain trend analyses to support growth model fitting

Apart from covering economic and some other sciences (as a topic of scientific inquiry in their own right), this panel was ascribed a horizontal role

what topics were seen as relevant by the panel as a whole. Second the compilation documents were useful to the panel chairmen,

Third, the templates for driving forces and focus areas of competence helped ensure the attention would be to stay on topics that were aligned with the objectives of the exercise.

and especially to topics that would be seen as potentially relevant to several panels. 1) The panels were oriented purposely not along the lines of industrial sectors or any other clear taxonomy.

what topics the other panels would cover. 3) The importance of cross-disciplinary synergies in the development of path-breaking innovattion suggested that explicit attention should be devoted to the opportunities offered by combinations of the focus areas that were deemed important by the different panels.

At this meeting, some crosscutting topics with connection to several panels were identified so that they could be explored further in the third panel meetings.

which could thus monitor what topics the other panels were considering (even if these possibilities were harnessed not extensively).(

In their reports, the panels were encouraged to examine a manageable number of topics (i e. some half a dozen driving forces and about ten focus areas.

the panels enjoyed full freedom in choosing the topics they would focus on. The panels were fed not'by any prior information

Specialised topics have been covered by special editions of other journals 12 13 but the anchor papers plus another which represented a crosscutting theme emerging at the conference (tailoring foresight) have been put together here.

and tools Eerola and Miles come to the topic from the perspective of knowledge management but their interpretation of the core of that topic as set out by Nonaka and Takeuchi 14 focuses on the ways in

which individuals who address the future share their knowledge and link, present and discuss information and insights with each other.

and analyze the breadth of topics and treatments in a typical daily newspaper, we'll need to depend on humans for scanning, particularly in the case of open intelligence systems.

The abstracts are searchable by date, author, source, topic, or scanner. Users can assemble any number of abstracts on any topics into a customized set of abstracts.

SRIC-BI's system operates on a monthly schedule at the end of each Fig. 1. The complex market environment.

Biotechnology and nanotechnology topics are continuing players in the abstract sets. Synthetic biology the prospect of engineering cellular processes to operate as bioreactors, labs in a cell,

Cultural topics are of huge importance in the abstract set because they help define the environment in which commercial products must succeed.

The dramatic disparity between the behavior of Baby boomers currently approaching retirement and the behavior of traditional retirees is yet another cultural topic in the abstract sets.

Frequent calls by the meeting facilitator for new clusters of abstracts or discussion topics are necessary to mine the month's abstracts as thoroughly as possible for signals of change.

When abstracts on particular topics (such as wireless technologies or privacy concerns) constitute clusters that cross industry-domain categories (such as health

or topic will have widespread impact (see Fig. 3). The second part of the meeting consists of identifying the topics

Meeting participants place the topics on a very rough ranking spectrum between bactionableq and bspeculativeq simply as a means of providing a perspective on a time frame for projected impacts.

and topics that surfaced during the meeting. The analysts compare the new topics and ideas to ones the Scan process has identified previously,

and test the ideas and topics for their substance, plausibility, and potential implications. 4. The players Because the scanning process profits from a wide variety of perspectives in the abstract-collection process and the Scan meeting,

so that topics and ideas do not appear repeatedly unless new developments merit a resurfacing of the topic. 5. The product The most important product of the scanning process is increased an awareness on the part of planners, employees,

and managers of the importance of a heads-up attitude about the external environment. The likelihood of strategic plans'being blindsided by external developments increases every year with the increasing complexity and competition in the business environment.

is necessary because the topics and questions that scanning regularly surfaces are not typically on the radar screen or agenda of managers, planners,

A first step is clearly generating the list of topics to be prioritised. This may exist in advance (for example the current headings used for funding)

and find out the prior S&t topics to achieve the social goals. Instrumental‘‘Innovation 25''aims to make long-term strategy for Japan.

when there is a real difficulty with applying formal modelling approaches to the topic in question. 2 Such methods allow us to explore the structure of opinion

creation of a shared understanding and mutual appreciation of the topics in question, the factors influencing them, the wider systems in

human cloning and chimeras) are especially liable to fuel more extensive public engagement in S&t topics.

and so on as is the case for many of the core topics that FTA addresses design of such texts can be very challenging.

which will often begin with a series of brief presentations on the topic under consideration and the wider context in

which means debating the relationships between drivers and topics. Clusters are effectively boundary objects that participants from different epistemic communities

and integrated is a topic richly deserving of further research. The problems arise when participants in,

The range and tone of these policy relevant topics is certainly very wide, reflecting perhaps more

there needs to be a clear link between the foresight (topic and process) and the government's policy agenda''.

'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,

but also to identify the most relevant topics and areas that law will need to take care of,

He is interested also in the topic of framework conditions of innovation such as public procurement of innovation or standardization.

Topics of the reports vary according to what is considered to be highly significant to the nation's future at the time.

Topics of some previous reports have included issues such as regional development and the effects of ageing of population.

The work is carried out in co-operation especially with the Ministries relevant as regards the topic of the foresight report

In the left column that displays the most important variables, the most discussed topics were the structure

On these topics she has conducted several research projects and written research reports. Sirkka Heinonen is the corresponding author

Fig. 1 shows the growing attention in journals for a certain topic and indicates that the term dnanotubest was used increasingly in the titles of scientific articles (extracted from the Picarta database.

The new outlet for publication on a new topic, and the early definition of a new audience indicate a next step in an emerging structure.

variation is reduced further as certain topics are selected as important and urgent. Expectations are translated into the agendas of the different actors, upon

3 The fact that we use the emergence of this specialised journal for this paper is the fact that nanotubes is one of the major topics in this journal.

The future of nanotechnology has become an important topic for technology firms, policy makers and research institutes.

Here again, we see topics that relate to the very far and speculative future such as nano-systems that control

There are different topics that need (or needed) solving in order to be able to realise the expected applications.

At the level of the society we observed open discussions on different topics. This indicates a growing attention for various aspects related to nanotubes as part of nanotechnology.

because it provided an adequate management of the topic's complexity and uncertainty while at the same time unfolding alternative futures.

Due to the scarcity of research resources and the complexity of the topic, progress had to be attained through a slow, piecemeal effort in different research projects and academic activities.

This innovative application of the Delphi method to Law resulted in an impressive collection of themes and visions, encompassing topics as diverse as the future of international law, national constitutional orders and private law,

identifying the most relevant topics and areas that law will need to act on; to analyse and test the potential impacts of different (and forthcoming) hypothetical VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 345 laws, contributing to the modernisation of current legislative processes;

others think that the application of planning tools to topics of basic research might confine creativity

This topic was taken up by Harold Linstone in his keynote speech, who argued that the industrial era of the past

in it, the interviewees were asked to respond to a set of questions in his/her topic field the responses to whichwould enable a probability distribution to be constructed representing their opinion regarding the topic of the interview.

all the cases dealt with topics that are likely to spur different interpretations among the actors and stakeholders.

He has published widely in the field of foresight, on topics such as roadmapping, emerging technologies and infrastructures,

and Lu 2002) examines a technology of interest by search and retrieval of abstract records on the topic.

She is focusing on research on emerging science and technology topics. Alan L. Porter is Director of R&d for Search Technology, Inc.,Norcross,

She is focusing on research on emerging science and technology topics. References Cagnin, C.,M. Keenan, R. Honston, F. Scapolo,

and 12 panels accordingly discussed the topics and question items to be surveyed. They set 94 areas (groups of interrelated topics) with 832 topics.

Questionnaires from the viewpoint of a time span of 30 years until 2040 were carried out twice,

Delphi topics that were forecasted to be realized by 2025 were extracted and reframed as a form of scenes. 2. 3. 3 Future society as discussed by the younger generation.

The statements of Delphi topics are matched to the keywords in each scenario. If a topic statement has a keyword,

that topic is given a score of that matched keyword. In this way, all PAGE 10 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 the Delphi topics are given scores by scenario according to their similarity,

which are expressed as a score matrix. Based on the matrix, Delphi areas (groups of relevant topics) and scenario themes are positioned on a two-dimensional map by correspondence analysis.

Correspondence analysis is used a widely method to grasp the relations between two different categories of data.

The procedure is shown in Figure 2. 4. Expected innovation 4. 1 Relations between Delphi topics and scenarios On average,

one scenario has 4 percent of Delphi topics with scores greater than 100, and 75 percent of them with scores less than 30.

there are 329 Delphi topics with scores greater than 100 in at least one scenario, around 40 percent of all topics,

because closely related topics vary from one scenario to another. They are regarded as topics that have a closer relationship with solving the challenges.

In Figure 3, the Delphi topics for each scenario are classified in decreasing order of score.

The scenarios that contain many highly scored topics can be considered to offer a greater scope for contributions from science and technology.

Five such scenario themes include: 1.‘‘Realization of a low-carbon society through the active use of the Smart-grid'';

On the other hand, the scenario themes with many low-scored topics are characterized by a low level of matching,

which may indicate a lack of concrete measures and proposals in the scenarios or a shortage of relevant Delphi topics.

and the Delphi areas (groups of interrelated topics) are summarized in a two-dimensional map (Figure 4). In the map,

The scenarios and Delphi areas Figure 3 Distribution of relevant topics by scenario theme PAGE 12 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 closely related are grouped together in reference to the results

because a lot of Delphi topics are related closely. The group of clusters related to energy, resources, and environment on the left side can be regarded as indicating the first group of expected innovation toward resolving the challenges in the future society

and two out of the five scenarios that many Delphi topics are linked closely to. In addition

and Delphi topics Of the 12 Delphi panels, the number which each scenario has links to ranges from zero to nine.

and shown as square dots in Figure 4 are linked to topics in at least half of all panels.

Another focus is Delphi topics in the key areas categorized as‘‘Others''in Table I that is, the topics in Panels 2, 5, 9, 10,11, and 12.

Figure 6 shows how many scenarios each topic has relations to. Here, topics that score 30 or more are regarded as being related to a scenario,

and about 25 percent of all topics in each scenario meet this requirement. Panels 2 and 5 have around 20 percent of topics that have no relation to scenarios

and most of them are related to at most three scenarios. On the other hand, Panels 10,11 and 12 have many topics that are common in several scenarios

and around half of the topics are related to more than three scenarios. Panel 9 has both specific topics and common topics.

Regarding base or common technologies related to ICT (Panel 2) and to earth/space (Panel 5),

specific topics tend to contribute to specific issues, whereas when it comes to technologies related to hard and soft infrastructure (Panel 11 and 12),

and to manufacturing (Panel 10), single topics tend to be related to solutions for several issues.

The extent of expected diversity in science and technology depends on scenario themes and the extent of relation to scenario themes depends on scientific or technological fields.

This reflects complexity of the relationship between scientific or technological development and social benefit coming from it,

and show the framework Figure 6 Ratio of topics that are related to several scenarios PAGE 16 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 toward its realization.

< Back - Next >

Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011