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LGI-report-Re-thinking-the-Digital-Agenda-for-Europe.pdf

technologies to meet realistic consumer demand 2 Broadband coverage in Europe today 3 Technical characteristics of a cable broadband network 4 Costs of meeting DAE goals 5

Broadband coverage 28 4. 1 Technologies for fast broadband 29 4. 2 The coverage footprint today 34 4. 3 Challenges of achieving full coverage 40

Global Internet consumer traffic growth trends over time 16 Figure 2: Global consumer Internet traffic 17 Figure 3:

The evolution over time of consumer bandwidth demand during the busy hour 20 Figure 4:

Predicted 100 Mbps FTTC/VDSL European household coverage in 2020 31 Figure 7: Percentage of households passed by cable (2010) 36 Figure 8:

Estimated coverage of cable and of DOCSIS 3. 0 in Europe, 4q2011 38 Figure 11:

Predicted LTE coverage in 2020 39 Figure 12: Broadband adoption (lines) by technology and Member State 40 Figure 13:

incremental CAPEX and OPEX needed to achieve 4 Mbps download and 1 Mbps upload speed 42 Figure 15:

The broadband deployment gap in the United states 43 Figure 16: Cost of covering different geotypes, from most dense to least dense, in Spain 44 Figure 17:

Cost and ARPU per customer per month for FTTH P2p Ethernet at 70%penetration 45 Figure 18.

Annualized cost (Present Value) of CAPEX per user (€) with a requirement for a guaranteed 10 Mbps 61 Figure 25:

Internet households by average traffic per month 18 Table 2: Average and busy hour global consumer household bandwidth requirements 19 Table 3:

Typical maximum achievable speeds for various wireless solutions 33 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The goals of the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE),

including not only fibre but also cable and fixed and mobile wireless. Cable can and does serve (1) as an alternative to making FTTX upgrades,

especially in areas where the cost of fibre upgrades would be particularly uneconomic, thus providing cost savings;

and (2) as a second fixed network in a given area, providing a facilitiesbased fixed network alternative to an FTTX network,

Wireless also functions in a useful complementary role (1) to provide coverage in low density and/or high cost areas,(2) as a competitive alternative to fixed network solutions,

1) availability of broadband for all Europeans in 2013,2) deployment of 30 Mbps broadband capability to all Europeans by 2020,

and (3) adoption of 100 Mbps broadband by 50%of European households by 2020. The detailed meaning of these goals is,

and to what extent must they be reflected in the core network? We would propose that the DAE objectives should be interpreted such that networks are designed to provide performance that consumers perceive as acceptable for the applications that they want to run.

Per projections based on Cisco VNI data, average global bandwidth demand per household in 2020 (the target data for achieving the DAE's objectives for ultra-fast broadband) is less than 2 Mbps

Cisco VNI 2011 data, 1 WIK calculations. Ultra-fast broadband access is useful, but in light of realistic consumer demand it is not necessary to assume that every broadband user will consume maximum capacity all the time.

Ability of different technologies to meet realistic consumer demand Eurodocsis 3. 0 cable systems already comfortably exceed the 100 Mbps called for in the DAE.

Mbps 3. Similar considerations apply to 4g wireless systems. There are surely limitations on the ability of wireless solutions alone to meet DAE objectives in dense population centres,

but wireless might play a greater role in low-to-medium density areas than many have assumed.

Broadband coverage in Europe today There are many different technologies that could be used to meet DAE objectives

notably including the fixed telecommunications network, but also including cable television networks, as well as fixed and mobile wireless services.

it is important to distinguish between the coverage or deployment of each technology, versus adoption (i e. the degree to which consumers choose to subscribe to the service).

and potentially in the longer term from a reallocation of frequencies on the Cable wireless systems benefit from deployment of LTE,

and eventually from the deployment of LTE-Advanced. The relative cost of achieving each of the DAE objectives with each of these technologies can vary greatly.

Those costs depend to a significant degree on the coverage footprint of the technology. For the fixed telecommunications network, there are significant uncertainties as to the quality of currently available data.

A study that has been conducted on behalf of the European commission will hopefully provide clarity. For cable, large portions of Europe have already been upgraded to Eurodocsis 3. 0. Within the 2020 DAE planning horizon,

For wireless broadband, the footprint of LTE and LTE-Advanced can be expected to be at least as broad in 2020 as that of 2g and 3g networks today.

Achievement of full broadband coverage (and especially of ultra-fast broadband) in Europe is complicated by (1) variations in population density from region to region;(

and (3) possibly by gaps in coverage of the fixed network in parts of Eastern europe. 4 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) Achievement of the DAE objectives for deployment

suggest that full achievement based solely on fibre-based telecommunications solutions is unlikely without some degree of public policy intervention and/or subsidy.

however, the effects will vary among the Member States, in part as a function of the degree of coverage of the cable television network.

and that the evolution of both (and, for that matter, also the evolution of the mobile network) is to a significant degree fibre-based.

They have evolved into Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC) networks that combine many of the best characteristics of coaxial cable systems with those of a high capacity fibre optic-based distribution system.

The upgrade to HFC cable systems to enable state-of-the-art bandwidth is comprised of two distinct processes:(1) upgrade to Eurodocsis 3. 0 standards,

and (2) driving fibre progressively closer to the end-user as and when needed to meet customer demand.

however, the upgrade can be undertaken as and when needed. This cost can vary greatly depending on how the existing cable plant was deployed,

In any event, upgrading existing digital cable is substantially less expensive than deploying new fibre-based telecommunications networks, thanks to the benefits of sharing existing coaxial cable to multiple customer premises.

Moreover, these upgrades have been in progress for some time (and are continuing), so part of the cost has already been incurred.

There is no imbalance between the cost of incrementally upgrading cable systems in comparison with customer willingness to pay for the upgrades;

because there has been little customer demand for upstream data bandwidth. The biggest single impediment is that such a shift would conflict with analogue FM radio

LTE was more expensive than fixed solutions where population density exceeded 3, 000 inhabitants per square kilometre (Km2.

Conversely, upgrades to VDSL or to FTTH became more expensive on a per-subscriber basis as the population density declines.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Population density FTTH-GPON FTTC-VDSL DOCSIS 6/12/30 Mbps LTE

A recent WIK study found a strong link between DOCSIS 3. 0 coverage and FTTN/VDSL roll out (typically by the incumbent),

but no statistically significant relationship between DOCSIS 3. 0 coverage and FTTH/FTTB roll out. This suggests that incumbents find FTTN/VDSL to be an adequate response to cable.

cable and mobile all compete, versus 1+competition, where only fixed and mobile compete. Facilities-based inter-modal competition

even if limited to discrete geographic areas, may have the tendency to constrain prices to reasonable levels across much larger geographic areas. 8 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) Overall assessment A more technologically neutral approach to the DAE,

drawing on cable and LTE, could provide real benefits. Cable can and does serve as (1) an alternative to making FTTX upgrades,

especially in areas where the cost of fibre upgrades would be particularly uneconomic, providing cost savings;

or (2) as a second fixed network in a given area, providing a facilities-based fixed network alternative to an FTTX network,

Wireless also functions in a useful complementary role (1) to provide coverage in low density and/or high cost areas,(2) as a competitive alternative to fixed network solutions,

see Section 5. 1 DAE Digital Agenda for Europe DHCP Dynamic Host Configuration Protocol DOCSIS 2. 0/Eurodocsis 3. 0 Data Over Cable

a DSLAM is a network device that is commonly provided by telecommunications operators; it connects multiple costumer digital subscriber lines to the network EIB European Investment Bank EU European union FTTX Fibre to the x;

see Section 4. 1. 1 GB Gigabyte GDP Gross domestic product GHZ Gigahertz GPON Gigabit Passive Optical Network;

. Dutch telecommunications company 10 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) LTE/LTEADVANCED Long-term-Evolution,

the newest standards for wireless communication of high-speed data Mbps Mega bit per second (one million bits per second) MDF Main distribution frame MDU Multiple Dwelling Unit

National Regulatory authority OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OPEX Operating Expenditure PSTN Public Switched Telephone Network P2p Point-to-Point;

an architecture based on a single dedicated fibre strand (or a fibre pair) for each end user between an Optical Street Distribution Frame and the end user ROI Return on Investment RSPG Radio spectrum Policy

Group RSPP Radio spectrum Policy Program SMP Significant Market Power; a firm is deemed to have significant market power if,

that is to say a position of economic strength affording it the power to behave to an appreciable extent independently of competitors, customers and ultimately consumers (Framework Directive) SMTP Simple Mail Transfer Protocol TB Terabyte (1 Terabyte

=1000 Gigabytes) VDSL/VDSL2 Very High Speed Digital Subscriber Line (version 2); see Section 4. 1. 1 VNI Virtual Networking Index (published by Cisco) Vod Video-on-Demand;

and watch video content over a network Wimax Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access WTP Willingness to Pay 4g Fourth-generation mobile communication standard 11.1 INTRODUCTION Key

Cable can and does serve (1) as an alternative to making FTTX upgrades, especially in areas where the cost of fibre upgrades would be particularly uneconomic,

thus providing cost savings; and (2) as a second fixed network in a given area, providing a facilities-based fixed network alternative to an FTTX network,

Wireless also functions in a useful complementary role (1) to provide coverage in low density and/or high cost areas,(2) as a competitive alternative to fixed network solutions,

The DAE includes full broadband availability in 2013,100%availability of 30 Mbps (henceforth called fast broadband) in 2020,

and 50%adoption of 100 Mbps (henceforth called ultra-fast broadband) by 2020.2 The rationale for promoting widespread deployment and adoption of broadband,

including ultra-fast (30 Mbps or more) broadband, seems clear enough. Widespread availability of broadband is viewed widely as an important contributor to European economic wellbeing,

Cable can and does serve (1) as an alternative to making FTTX upgrades, especially in areas where the cost of fibre upgrades would be particularly uneconomic,

thus providing cost savings; and (2) as a second fixed network in a given area, providing a facilitiesbased fixed network alternative to an FTTX network,

To what extent is cable coverage available in Europe today? What does it cost to upgrade existing cable infrastructure to Eurodocsis 3. 0?

To what extent has existing cable already been upgraded for broadband communications purposes? What is expected the time frame in

In light of the existing coverage, technical capabilities and costs of cable, what are the likely contributions of cable vis-à-vis the DAE objectives and the costs of reaching them?

What is the current and likely future role of cable broadband as a competitor to telecoms broadband?

and/or upgrade of cable infrastructure accelerate the deployment of telecoms broadband? Section 2 reviews the DAE objectives.

the technologies available for fast and ultra-fast broadband, the geographic and population coverage of existing networks,

and the implications of existing coverage for achieving DAE objectives. Section 5 discusses the technological capabilities of a cable network.

1) availability of broadband for all Europeans in 2013,2) deployment of 30 Mbps broadband capability to all European by 2020,

and (3) adoption of 100 Mbps broadband by 50%of European households. The detailed meaning of these goals is less clear.

Per projections based on Cisco VNI data, average global bandwidth demand per household in the busy hour in 2020 is less than 2 Mbps. Ultra-fast broadband access is useful,

Eurodocsis 3 0 cable systems already comfortably exceed the 100 Mbps called for in the DAE. Even with current technology, cable networks are capable of meeting realistic consumer bandwidth demand well in excess of that which is likely to be present in 2020 and considerably beyond.

Similar considerations apply to 4g wireless systems. There are surely limitations on the ability of wireless solutions alone to meet DAE objectives in dense population centres

but wireless might play a greater role in low-to-medium density areas than many have assumed.

by 2020, to ensure that all Europeans have access to much higher Internet speeds of above 30 Mbps,

%or more of European households subscribe to Internet connections above 100 Mbps. 6 These goals would seem to be clear,

but that deserves to be raised, has to do with the distribution of the 50%of households that are to subscribe to ultrafast broadband at speeds of 100 Mbps

There are numerous projections of the growth in European Internet traffic over time, notably including the annual Cisco Virtual Networking Index (VNI).

8 Cisco analysts compile data from multiple sources in order to estimate current and future Internet traffic by region, by application,

and fixed versus mobile (see Figure 2). There is of course uncertainty with any projection of the future,

Global consumer Internet traffic Source: Cisco VNI (2012). 9 Internet traffic growth trends in Western europe are expected not to differ greatly from global trends.

Western European IP traffic is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 27%per year over the period,

(which is 1 Terabyte, or 1 TB) per month. 9 Cisco VNI (2012), op cit. 10 Cisco VNI (2012), op cit. 0 45,000 90,000 2011 2012 2013 2014

2015 2016 Voip Online Gaming File sharing Web/Data Internet Video 29%CAGR 2011-2016 Petabytes per Month 22%23%54%18

Internet households by average traffic per month Number of households by Traffic per Month (Millions of Households) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR Households generating more than 50

Cisco VNI (2011). 11 Translating the above Cisco data into Mbps demand, during the average hour and during the busy hour,

we have depicted the results in Table 2. Data networks are designed generally to carry near-peak traffic;

because there is no upper bound to the offered load in an IP data network. See J. S. Marcus (1999:

Average and busy hour global consumer household bandwidth requirements Household generating more per month than GB Mean BW>Mbps Busy Hr BW>Mbps 2010 2011

Cisco VNI 2011 data, 14 WIK calculations. Estimation of the mean aggregate bandwidth demand during the busy hour from the data is straightforward,

and is shown in Figure 3. The 2010-2015 figures are based directly on Cisco data, while the 2016-2020 figures are an extrapolation reflecting an exponential regression of the 2010-2015 data.

The fit of the regression is very good. 14 Ibid. 20 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) Figure 3:

The evolution over time of consumer bandwidth demand during the busy hour Source: Cisco VNI 2011 data, 15 WIK calculations.

What is particularly striking is that the mean global bandwidth demand per household is far less than most have assumed,

Even in 2020, the average demand during the busy hour is well below 2 Mbps. This has important implications,

The Western European share of total Internet traffic is expected to remain fairly constant over the next five years,

and the core networks that connect those access networks to one another and to the world.

The policy implications for broadband access networks and for the core networks that support them at national and European level include:

2019 2020 Mbps 21. Ultra-fast broadband access is useful, but it is not necessary to assume that every broadband user will consume maximum capacity all the time.

Eurodocsis 3. 0 cable systems already comfortably exceed the 100 Mbps called for in the DAE. Even with current technology, cable networks are capable of meeting realistic consumer bandwidth demand well in excess of that which is likely to be present in 2020,

Similar considerations apply to 4g wireless systems. Key questions relate to the number of individual users (not households) who must be served by each tower,

and the degree to which bandwidth demands differ from those of fixed network users (due, for example, to smaller screen size).

but wireless might play a greater role in low-to-medium density areas than many have assumed.

and providers of Internet applications, services and content benefit by selling services to consumers or by selling advertising to a wide range of firms.

In a sophisticated study drawing on data from more than 6, 000 New zealand businesses, Grimes et al.

Telecommunications Policy, vol. 33; P. 471-485.20 See Fornefeld, M.,Delauney, G. and D. Elixmann (2008:

paper presented at the International Telecommunications Society 17th Biennial Conference, Montreal, Canada. 22 See Liebenau, J.,Atkinson, R.,Kärrberg, P.,Castro, D. and S. Ezell:(

LSE Enterprise ltd. & The Information technology and Innovation Foundation; April 23 Grimes, A.,Ren, C. and P. Stevens (2009:

Impacts of Internet connectivity on irm productivity; Motu Working Paper 09-15; Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, October;

and Internet Policy (TPRC), Arlington, Virginia, September 23-25; 2005; revised January 17, 2006.25 Howell, B. and A. Grimes (2010:

a crosssectional analysis of U s. data; in: Issues in Economic policy no. 6, The Brookings Institute, July 27 Greenstein, S. and R. Mcdevitt (2012), Measuring the Broadband Bonus in Thirty OECD Countries, OECD Digital economy Papers, No. 197

, OECD Publishing. http://dx. doi. org/10.1787/5k9bcwkg3hwf-en. 25. To the extent that the price of broadband subsequently declines, 28 or that the quality (e g. available bandwidth) provided at the same price increases,

Countries with large Internet economies, including the United states, Japan and Germany, are receiving large benefits from broadband.

and Mcdevitt base their analysis on OECD retail broadband prices as published in Tables 7. 17 and 7. 18 in the OECD Communications Outlook 2011, multiplied by the estimated subscribers by access type.

These are all, not coincidentally, countries with substantial competition between the fixed telecommunications network and cable.

and telecommunications for years) does not do conspicuously well. It may well be that these differences in broadband surplus are primarily a function of the level of competition.

say, 10 Mbps) and ultra-fast broadband at speeds of 30 Mbps or greater. A notable exception is a study that Analysys Mason

construction and telecoms. 30 Intermediate results were presented at a public workshop in Brussels in February 2012.

Household Demand for Broadband Internet Service; Final report to the Broadband. gov Task force, Federal Communications Commission;

BROADBAND COVERAGE Key Findings There are many different technologies that could be used to meet DAE objectives,

notably including the fixed telecommunications network, but also including cable television, as well as fixed and mobile wireless services.

it is important to distinguish between the coverage or deployment of each technology, versus adoption (i e. the degree to which consumers choose to subscribe to the service).

and potentially in the longer term from a reallocation of frequencies on the cable (see Chapter 5). Wireless systems benefit from deployment of LTE,

and eventually from the deployment of LTE-Advanced. The relative cost of achieving each of the DAE objectives with each of these technologies can vary greatly (see Chapter 6). Those costs depend to a significant degree on the coverage footprint of the technology.

For the fixed telecommunications network, there are significant uncertainties as to the quality of currently available data.

For wireless broadband, the footprint of LTE and LTE-Advanced can be expected to be at least as broad in 2020 as that of 2g and 3g networks today.

Achievement of full broadband coverage (and especially of ultra-fast broadband) in Europe is complicated by (1) variations in population density from region to region;(

and (3) possibly by gaps in coverage of the fixed network in parts of Eastern europe.

suggest that full achievement based solely on fibre-based telecommunications solutions is unlikely without some degree of public policy intervention and/or subsidy.

however, the effects will vary among the Member States, in part as a function of the degree of coverage of the cable television network.

In doing so, it is important to distinguish between the coverage or deployment of each technology,

including 30 Mbps deployment and 100 Mbps adoption, it is necessary to begin with a discussion of capabilities of the broadband technologies that are likely to be suitable for meeting those DAE goals in 2020 (Section 4. 1). This leads into a discussion of the current cost of deploying each of these technologies.

and of ultra-fast broadband at 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps (Section 4. 4). 4. 1 Technologies for fast broadband Some have attempted to limit the discussion of Next Generation Access (NGA

however, modern Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC) cable-based solutions obviously deliver capabilities that are functionally equivalent to telecom fibre-based NGA today.

they are able to deliver 50 Mbps provided the copper sub-loop is shorter than about 400-500 meters.

The complete local loop including the in-house wiring is based on fibre optic technology. In a Multiple Dwelling Unit (MDU), each home has a fibre access. 36 Depending on the specific architectural and topological features,

Alcatel-lucent antwoord op Ontwerpbesluit van de Raad van het BIPT van 20 december 2010 betreffende de Analyse van de Breedbandmarkten 18 Februari. 34 Alternatively,

thus, require an infrastructure based on twisted pair copper lines. 36 In a Gigabit Passive Optical Network (GPON),

the typical bandwidth is up to 2. 5 Gbps downstream and up to 1, 25 Gbps upstream.

Many have assumed consequently that FTTC/VDSL is relevant to 30 Mbps DAE objectives, but no more;

however, this ignores the second life of copper. The second life of copper entails the use of new technologies,

including vectoring (based on advanced noise cancellation), pair bonding (which relies on a second copper pair being available),

which case 100 Mbps should be achievable. 38 Figure 6: Predicted 100 Mbps FTTC/VDSL European household coverage in 2020 Source:

Yardley et al. 2012b). ) 37 See RTR, Consultation input from RTR Gmbh (Austrian Regulatory authority for broadcasting and telecommunications),

input to European commission Consultation on costing methodologies for key wholesale access prices in electronic communications, November 2011.38 See Yardley, M. et al.

coverage 32 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) 4. 1. 2 Cable solutions Unlike the traditional cable infrastructure optimised for handling broadcast television programmes,

modern Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC) cable solutions are capable of simultaneously carrying voice, data and video services.

Cable networks can offer Gigabit bitrates for IP traffic. The customers within a given cable cluster,

however, share this capacity. 40 We discuss cable capabilities at length in Section 5. 4. 1. 3 Wireless solutions Wire less solutions based on Orthogonal Frequency Domain Multiplexed (OFDM) technologies such as LTE

or Wimax are becoming progressively more capable over time, but they are ignored sometimes in discussions of the DAE

In the European union's Radio spectrum Policy Programme (RSPP this is explicitly reflected in Recital 4: The RSPP is also a key action in the Digital Agenda for Europe

which aims to deliver fast broadband internet in the future network-based knowledge economy, with an ambitious target for universal broadband coverage with speeds of at least 30 Mbps for all Europeans by 2020.39 See Chapter 5 for more details. 40 Apart from the very different physical infrastructure,

an HFC cable system is broadly comparable to a GPON fibre system. In the cable system, the customers in a given cable cluster share the available capacity,

The Mobile Communications Role in Next Generation Networks: The Case of Spain, 22nd European Regional ITS Conference, Budapest, 18-21 september 2011.33.

The Radio spectrum Policy Group (RSPG) has looked also at the issue, and observed: The RSPP is also a key action in the Digital Agenda for Europe

which aims to deliver fast broadband internet in the future network-based knowledge economy, with an ambitious target for universal broadband coverage with speeds of at least 30 Mbps for all Europeans by 2020.42 Steady technological improvements are noteworthy.

The migration to LTE, and then to LTE Advanced, represents a substantial increase in the nominal speed of wireless data transmission,

and also in efficiency in terms of bits per Hertz. Typical realistically achievable speeds are less than those that are theoretically achievable

but are nonetheless impressive. Efficiency gains come through the use of multiple antennae (MIMO), and simply from making more spectrum available.

Typical maximum achievable speeds for various wireless solutions Mobile technology Range of typically achievable maximum downstream bandwidth (Mbit/s) HSPA 2-5 HSPA

+5-25 LTE 10-100 Source: TNO/WIK. 43 As we explain in Section 4. 2. 4,

wireless coverage is widespread in Europe today, and by 2020 (the target date for the second and third DAE objectives) it can confidently be expected that substantially all wireless infrastructure in Europe will have been upgraded to either LTE or LTE Advanced. 42 RSPG, RSPG Report on Improving Broadband Coverage

, RSPG11-393 Final, 16 november 2011.43 Nooren, P. J.,Marcus, J. S. and I. Philbeck (2012):

State-of-the-art Mobile Internet connectivity and its Impact on e-commerce, presentation to the IMCO Committee of the European parliament, 28 june 2012, WIK and TNO, available at:

it is helpful to first understand the coverage of fixed and cable networks today, and the population distribution of Europe. 4. 2 The coverage footpri nt today In considering the cost of meeting all three of the DAE objectives,

it is important to understand the coverage footprint of fixed networks and cable networks in the European union today. 4. 2. 1 Uncertainties in cur rent coverage statistics The European commission has sponsored studies of broadband coverage, primarily ADSL coverage,

for many years. 46 These data have been reflected in a range of Commission studies, and have been picked up without question in other studies such as those of the EIB.

Past Commission estimates of DSL coverage have assumed that the fraction of Main Distribution Frames MDFS) that contain a Digital Subscriber Line Access Multiplexer (DSLAM) 47 is a suitable measure of coverage.

This tacitly assumes (1) that existing lines from the MDFS extend to reach all households, and (2) that all existing lines are potentially suitable for DSL. 48 We suspect that these estimates did not place sufficient weight on limitations in fixed network deployment in newer Member States.

If these estimates are overly optimistic, then most estimates of the cost of achieving DAE objectives could be in error, even for the first DAE objective (basic broadband for all Europeans by 2013).

or fibre telecommunications lines is heavily dependent on upgrading the existing fixed network, which in turn depends on the coverage footprint. 44 Hätönen, J. 2011):

The economic impact of fixed and mobile high-speed networks, European Investment Bank (EIB. 45 See Feijóo, C,

The Mobile Communications Role in Next Generation Networks: The Case of Spain, op cit. 46 See IDATE (2011), Broadband Coverage in Europe, Final Report, 2011 Survey Data as of 31 december 2010,2011,

at http://ec. europa. eu/information society/digital-agenda/scoreboard/docs/pillar/broadband coverage 2010. pdf. 47 A DSLAM is a network device that is commonly provided by telecommunications operators.

It connects multiple customer digital subscriber lines to the network. 48 Corrections for fixed network coverage were made in Poland and the Czech republic,

but apparently not in all Member States. Line length adjustments were made, but again not in all Member States. 35.

The firm Point Topic is conducting an ongoing survey of broadband coverage on behalf of the Commission.

We would not be surprised if it results in revisions to Commission estimates of coverage, and thus of the cost of achieving the DAE. 4. 2. 2 Coverage of telecoms networks In the Western European EU-15 Member States,

we believe that the coverage of the fixed telephony network is more or less complete. In some of the newer Member States in the east, coverage of the fixed telephony network might well be less than 100%of households passed.

As noted in Section 4. 2. 1 the firm Point Topic is conducting a detailed survey for the Commission that will hopefully shed light on the issue;

however, the results have not yet been published. We look forward to seeing these new coverage statistics once they become available.

There are also differences from one Member State to the next in the distance of the household from the Main Distribution Frame (MDF) and from the street cabinet, differences in the quality of copper loops,

we will not dwell on them here. 4. 2. 3 Coverage of cable ne tworks Some 55%of all households in the EU are reachable by cable television,

while coverage is in excess of 85%in The netherlands, Romania, Malta, Lithuania, Belgium, Hungary, and also in non-EU member Switzerland. 36 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) Figure 7:

Screen Digest (2010), WIK calculations. Content 80-100%60-80%40-60%20-40%0-20%37.

Screen Digest (2011. Meanwhile, the gap between cable coverage and cable broadband penetration represents a significant opportunity for Europe and for the industry.

Figure 9: Homes passed by cable versus cable broadband adoption, by Member State Source: Screen Digest (2011), WIK calculations. 99.2 97.3 92.2 88.8 88.8 86.9 86.4 86.2 85.7 80.6 78.6 76.0 75.8 69.8 65.7

62.5 60.1 56.1 54.8 54.7 53.7 53.6 48.4 48.2 42.1 38.4 37.2 0 20 40 60 80 100 Homes Passed as%of all

Cable Internet penetration as%of all households 2010 100%80%60%40%20%0%38 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) We have done a detailed analysis of the Liberty

Global coverage footprint. It is clear that Liberty Global's cable coverage in Europe is substantial

and that 94%of Liberty Global's cable has already been upgraded to modern Eurodocsis 3. 0;

however, the degree of coverage and the degree to which cable has been upgraded varies somewhat by Member State and by cable network operator.

Estimated coverage of cable and of DOCSIS 3. 0 in Europe, 4q2011 Source: Yardley et al.

%100%Other cable Remainder of internet-capable network DOCSIS3. 0 Percentage of premises passed 39.4.2.4 The potential for wi reless solutions As noted in Section 4. 1. 3,

It is difficult to assess the fraction of the European population that cannot be covered costeffectively at 30 Mbps with the fixed network.

Since the 100 Mbps target refers only to adoption by 50%of households, we assume that there is no need for mobile to meet this need.

The 100 Mbps users can be located in areas that have higher density. In Australia, where an ultra-fast government-owned National Broadband Network (NBN) is being deployed,

7%of the population is expected to be served by wireless or satellite solutions. The number in Europe might be higher or lower,

The coverage of LTE or LTE Advanced wireless in Europe can be expected to be at least as great as that of 2g

and 3g wireless today. 50 This seems to imply that most remote, low density, or hard to reach locations can be served using LTE or LTE Advanced;

however, there will predictably be locations that cannot even be served cost-effectively by LTE. Figure 11:

Predicted LTE coverage in 2020 Source: Yardley et al. 2012b). ) 49 Nomadicity is the ability to use the service at different locations at different times,

but not the ability to use it while in motion. 50 See Yardley, M. et al.

%94%94%93%93%93%92%91%0%20%40%60%80%100%Population coverage 40 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE

) 4. 2. 5 Overall adoption of network technologies Many Member States already have a mix of fixed broadband technologies including telecommunications (copper and in some cases fibre), cable,

Note that Figure 12 reflects adoption rather than coverage. Figure 12: Broadband adoption (lines) by technology and Member State Source:

situation at 1 july 2011.4.3 Challenges of achiev ing full coverage Attempting to meet even the first of DAE objectives (coverage of 100%of Europeans with conventional broadband by 2013) may be more challenging than many have assumed, for a range

51 Second, European topography is not particularly helpful to coverage. Many regions in Europe are mountainous.

Third, many regions of Europe historically lacked full coverage of the fixed telephony network. This problem has been ameliorated since the fall of the Iron curtain,

Population Densitiy of Europe at http://farm6. staticflickr. com/5018/5457012599 e0bd90dd73 b. jpg. 42 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) Getting broadband coverage to the most remote areas

and OPEX that would be required to deploy broadband (with 4 Mbps download and 1 Mbps upload speed) to all households in the United states. Underserved areas tend to be mountainous

or remote (see Figure 14). Figure 14: The broadband gap in the United states: incremental CAPEX and OPEX needed to achieve 4 Mbps download

and 1 Mbps upload speed Source: FCC: The Broadband Availability Gap, April 2010. A striking finding is that a disproportionately large fraction of the gap is associated with covering a tiny fraction of the population.

The most expensive 250,000 households, representing just 0. 2%of all households, represent about half of the gap (see Figure 15). 43.

the total cost of coverage in low density areas was modest because so few households were involved (see Figure 16). 52 In analysing the cost of coverage of ten geotypes designated

I through X (representing population density from geotype I, with population in excess of 10,000 per Km2, to geotype X, with population less than 5 inhabitants per Km2),

Note that the calculations assume coverage for the location of premises, that is, coverage of the population, not for the coverage of the total surface of each geotype.

A recent WIK study53 attempted to comprehensively quantify the gap between the deployment of fibre-based ultra-fast broadband to 100%of the population of Germany reflecting detailed geographic data on the locations of streets, buildings,

Financial requirements for nationwide fibre access coverage, 22nd European Regional ITS Conference, Budapest, 18-21 september 2011;

Four fibre-based telecommunications architectures were considered: PMP GPON, P2p Ethernet, P2p GPON, and FTTB P2p DSL. 55 Neither cable television infrastructure nor wireless was considered.

The national territory was segmented then into twenty different areas (geotypes) based on population density. A key driver is the Average Revenue per User (ARPU.

An ARPU of € 38 for ultra-fast broadband was felt to be achievable; however, for a profitable deployment of FTTH P2p Ethernet covering the full national territory,

an average ARPU of € 44 would be required (see Figure 17). In geotypes 1 through 7, where population density is greatest

Cost and ARPU p er customer per month for FTTH P2p Ethernet at 70%penetration Source:

(2) P2p Ethernet is Point-to-Point fibre access network with single fibres per home

and Ethernet switches concentrating the customer traffic at the central MPOP (ODF) sites. 3) P2p GPON is Point-to-Point fibre access network as before,

but GPON splitters and OLT at the central MPOP sites, and (4) FTTB P2p DSL is Point-to-Point fibre access network with single fibre per building

If a market player sought to maximise coverage without losing money, rather to maximise profits,

The remaining low density geotypes would still remain without fibre-based ultra-fast broadband coverage in the absence of the application of additional public policy measures (for example, subsidies of one form or another.

The apparent conclusions are that a full 100%fibre-based ultra-fast broadband coverage cannot be profitable in Germany under today‘s circumstances.

Cross-subsidy from areas of higher density to those of lesser density would expand coverage,

but not enough to achieve 100%coverage. Either ARPU would have to increase some € 6 per month (from € 38 to € 44 per month),

The remaining 30%of each cluster is assumed to be served (if at all) by mobile or cable.

This analysis (which is based solely on copper and fibre-based telecommunications, and does not otherwise reflect cable

or mobile) has many implications that are probably relevant not only to Germany, but to most of the Member States.

Full achievement of the three DAE objectives based solely on fibre-based telecommunication technologies without intervention

in part as a function of the degree of coverage of the cable television network. 58 The WIK study considers many other potential interventions as well,

and that the evolution of both (and, for that matter, also the evolution of the mobile network) is to a significant degree fibre-based.

Cable systems today have evolved into Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC) networks that combine many of the best characteristics of coaxial cable systems with those of a high capacity fibre optic-based distribution system.

The upgrade to HFC cable systems to enable state-of-the-art bandwidth is comprised of two distinct processes:(1) upgrade to Eurodocsis 3. 0 standards,

and (2) driving fibre progressively close to the end-user as and when needed to meet customer demand. Both upgrades have been in progress for some time.

The cost of upgrading existing digital cable systems to Eurodocsis 3. 0 is minimal. The cost of driving fibre into the network can be significant;

however, the upgrade can be undertaken as and when needed. This cost can vary greatly depending on how the existing cable plant was deployed, the availability of existing ducts,

There is no imbalance between the cost of incrementally upgrading cable systems in comparison with customer willingness to pay for the upgrades;

because there has been little customer demand for upstream data bandwidth. The biggest single impediment is that such a shift would conflict with analogue FM radio

and that the evolution of both (and, for that matter, also the evolution of the mobile network) is to a significant degree fibre-based.

Upgrade to HFC cable systems is comprised of two distinct processes:(1) upgrade to Eurodocsis 3. 0 standards,

and (2) driving fibre progressively close to the end-user as and when needed to meet customer demand. Both upgrades have been in progress for some time.

Some cable operators choose to use purely fibre-based systems (e g. GPON) for some customers, for example in greenfield development settings.

The upgrades that we are considering in this chapter are concerned primarily with capacity, but there is also an issue regarding specifically upstream capability.

The Cisco VNI report (2011) notes that Internet traffic demand contrary to what many have assumed, is becoming more asymmetric over time, not less.

With video growth, Internet traffic is evolving from a relatively steady stream of traffic (characteristic of P2p) to a more dynamic traffic pattern.

With the exception of short-form video and video calling, most forms of Internet video do not have a large upstream component.

Moreover, there are gateways to the PSTN (telephony equipment), gateways to the Internet (IP routers), and servers for providing a range of services. 60 Where there are multiple headends,

they are linked typically via supraregional backbones based on fibre optics. Regional headends (also called area hubs: These headends are data centres requiring a power supply,

and security arrangements. They are connected typically via a fibre transport ring (regional backbone. Regional headends are responsible for the conversion of television signals into HF signals (compatible with cable networks) and for the coupling with IP signals.

Each regional headend contains optical transmitters and receivers, and can serve as the home of a 60 Examples are DHCP (Dynamic Host Configuration Protocol), games, web, e-mail (SMTP,

Simple Mail Transfer Protocol) and Point of Presence (traffic exchange with third parties). Optical Node 1 Bidirectional amplifier Residential Customer Internet International Gateways ON 2 ON n Fiber Ring HE1 Euro DOCSIS CMTS+Telephony equipment

+Router Connections Secondary IP Backbone Secondary Telephone Backbone Ring Primary Telephony Backbone Connections/Conversions Primary IP Backbone CM NIU Teleph

. modem Telephony Switch Gateway Server Farms NOC Router 52 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) CMTS (Cable Modem Termination System.

The CMTS is the intelligence of a broadband cable system. Key functions include (1) addressing the receiving party of an individual message,

cable represents the current state of the art for Europe as regards delivery of data, voice, and video over a cable television system. 63 It is the cable technology platform that competes most directly with fibre-based NGA,

There are no major impediments to the upgrade. Within the 2020 time frame that is relevant for DAE objectives,

A Eurodocsis 2. 0 system can deliver raw downstream bit rates of from 38 Mbps (64-QAM) to 51 Mbps (256-QAM) in an 8 MHZ channel,

and raw upstream bit rates of about 30 Mbps (64-QAM) in a 6. 4 MHZ channel. 64 61 Splitters are bidirectional passive components used to split

more than 200 Mbps through the bonding of four channels, or more than 400 Mbps through the bonding of eight channels;

and Upstream: more than 100 Mbps through the bonding of four channels. Technical progress as to DOCSIS capabilities is,

however, very dynamic. It is therefore to be expected that substantially higher raw bit rates will be available downstream and upstream in the future.

This yields 400 Mbps of usable throughput downstream. Development of CPE capable of 16 channels downstream and 8 channels upstream is already under way.

Virgin Media has announced plans to offer 1. 5 Gbps service to selected customers on a trial basis,

whatever data capacity is available is shared by all connected customers. With proper management, however, the data capacity can meet realistic customer requirements under quite a wide range of assumptions.

First, one must bear in mind that the capacity required to support linear video is separate from the capacity used to support data (as is also the case with GPON.

Second, the cable network operator can progressively upgrade the network infrastructure, as needed and on an incremental basis,

In this section, we deal specifically with overall capacity upgradability within the existing frequency plan. 65 Moreover, DOCSIS 3. 0 supports Internet Protocol Version 6 (IPV6.

/67 Kabel Deutschland (KDG) recently showed in a field test that an 862 MHZ upgraded cable network is able to broadcast download speeds of up to 4. 7 Gbps. See KDG Press release May 31, 2012;

http://www. kabeldeutschland. com/en/presse/pressemitteilung/unternehmensnachrichten/may-31-2012. html and http://www. digitalfernsehen. de/index. php?

to a fully Internet-capable state-of-the-art Eurodocsis 3. 0 cable network, the first of which has long since been completed substantially throughout Europe:

Upgrade to a Eurodocsis 3. 0 enabled network, Upgrade of the Eurodocsis 3. 0 enabled network by progressively driving fibre deeper into the network if and as needed in order to meet capacity requirements.

This process is already ongoing; thus, a portion of these costs have already been incurred. In understanding the cost and complexity of these upgrades,

it is helpful to consider the physical and logical structure of the HFC/DOCSIS cable infrastructure,

Core network Concentration network MPOPFIBRE Hub Amplifiers Coaxial cabling Active analog equipment optical cabling Coaxial cabling (inhouse) CMTS CMTS Cable Modem Termination System

Fibre Hub Active digital equipment 55.5.3.1 Upgrade of traditional broadcast cable networks to enable broadband communications Considerable work is needed to enable a traditional cable network to deliver broadband connectivity;

however, this has long since been accomplished throughout Europe. 5. 3. 2 Upgrade from a DOCSIS 2. 0 to a DOCSIS 3. 0 enabled network The migration from DOCSIS 2 to DOCSIS 3. 0 requires:

Implementation of DOCSIS 3. 0 modules into the CMTS (an upgrade that is typically carried out for the entire CMTS;

(and pay for) the higher bandwidths that are only possible with DOCSIS 3. 0. 68 5. 3. 3 Upgrade of a DOCSIS 3 enabled network Cable is shared a medium;

It is important to bear in mind that all modern data networks are shared in some degree. Networks differ in where the sharing takes place.

such upgrades might or might not require physical deployment of additional fibre. HFC segmentation/node splitting is inexpensive to implement in cases

A number of Liberty Global networks, for example, are constructed using fibre rings that contain redundant fibre. Unit costs of upgrading these networks can be very low.

The upgrade will tend to be more expensive in those cases where civil works are required;

Second, upgrades can be undertaken gradually and incrementally, if and as needed. Cable systems can thus be upgraded incrementally, to 2020 and well beyond,

(and willingness to pay) in all likelihood will remain well below the 100 Mbps access speed threshold addressed in the DAE,

With digital transmission, cable television can now carry hundreds of channels, in comparison with analogue-only cable systems that carried only a bit over thirty channels.

which the upgrade from DOCSIS 2. 0 to DOCSIS 3. 0 has been handled. One nasty problem would remain.

LTE was more expensive than fixed solutions where population density exceeded 3 000 inhabitants per square kilometre (Km2.

Conversely, upgrades to VDSL or to FTTH became more expensive on a per-subscriber basis as the population density declines.

using DOCSIS 3. 0 cable at speeds of 6, 12 or 30 Mbps, and using wireless (LTE at 2. 6 GHZ).

Population density plays a huge role in these costs. They found that LTE was more expensive than fixed solutions where population density exceeded 3, 000 inhabitants per square kilometre (Km2.

Conversely, upgrades to VDSL or to FTTH became more expensive on a per-subscriber basis as the population density declines.

Cable costs (for areas where digital cable, but not necessarily Eurodocsis 3. 0, is deployed already) are, by contrast, largely independent of density.

VIII IX X Population density FTTH-GPON FTTC-VDSL DOCSIS 6/12/30 Mbps LTE-2. 6 GHZ EUR 61.

If, however, one assumes that there is a requirement for guaranteed bandwidth of 10 Mbps, then the fixed solutions are greatly superior to wireless.

LTE costs are highly sensitive to overall bandwidth requirements and thus even more sensitive than fixed network costs to the number and density of users in type of geographic area (geotype.

Annualized cost (Present Value) of CAPEX per user (€) with a requirement for a guaranteed 10 Mbps Source:

It is worth noting once again that Cisco VNI data strongly suggest that average data consumption per household during the busy hour will be less than 2 Mbps, even in 2020.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Population density FTTH-GPON FTTC-VDSL DOCSIS 6/12/30 Mbps LTE

Theoretical (advertised) download speed, with Internet centres in rural areas. Base: Theoretical (advertised) download speed. Advanced:

Actual (guaranteed) download speed. Maximum: Actual (guaranteed) download and upload speed. In all scenarios except the first minimum scenario, coverage to the household is assumed to be required.

These differing scenarios each implied different feasible solutions. For example, the Advanced scenario could be met with ADSL2, LTE, VDSL2, Eurodocsis 3. 0, FTTB,

and FTTH, while the Maximum scenario could be satisfied only with pure fibre solutions. The EIB analysis considers the incremental cost in each Member State of achieving each of the three DAE objectives under each of the four scenarios.

In Figure 25, these costs are presented for each scenario with and without the use of cable. 76 See Hätönen, J. 2011:

The economic impact of fixed and mobile high-speed networks, in: Productivity and growth in Europe:

because cable is felt to be incapable (at present, at least) of providing 30 Mbps, to say nothing of 100 Mbps, of usable symmetric capacity. 77 In our view,

the use of scenarios is appropriate, but it is necessary to temper this use with reasonable expectations as to what European consumers want and need.

whether Europeans would accept the use of Internet centres (as envisioned in the Minimum scenario),

30 Mbps of guaranteed symmetric bandwidth seems to be enormously in excess of the average busy hour of residential consumers, even in 2020 and well beyond. 78 Thus,

The Basic scenario, where 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps can be interpreted as advertised speeds, are probably somewhat below the level of realistic consumer expectations in 2020,

the Cisco VNI 2011 analysis finds that Internet data traffic is become less symmetric over time, not more,

With video growth, Internet traffic is evolving from a relatively steady stream of traffic (characteristic of P2p) to a more dynamic traffic pattern.

With the exception of short-form video and video calling, most forms of Internet video do not have a large upstream component.

when the data are plotted together. 16.2 10.3 11.7 10.0 8. 8 6. 9 26.8 20.2 16.2 18.2 18.4 10.6 05 10 15 20

Feijoo/Gomez-Barroso also found that completing the network with LTE would cost €10. 5 billion;

however, the more realistic design would use LTE only in low density areas (below 50 inh/Km2.

There are many indications that cable (DOCSIS 3. 0) coverage stimulates fixed network operators to deploy fibre-based ultra-fast broadband more quickly.

cable and mobile all compete, versus 1+competition, where only fixed and mobile compete. Facilities-based inter-modal competition,

even if limited to discrete geographic areas, may have the tendency to constrain prices to reasonable levels across much larger geographic areas.

NGA deployment in Japan, for instance, has come at the expense of a re-monopolisation of the last mile of the Key Findings 69. telecommunications network. 79 Deployment of a fibre-based National Broadband Network

moreover at its core in the belief, or at least the hope, that increasing competition would in time obviate the need for regulation that primarily responds to the presence or absence of Significant Market Power (SMP).

The cable industry can finance these upgrades itself without public funding. The observation, rather, is that the degree to

which cable (and to some degree wireless) was overlooked historically in the DAE from a planning perspective is striking,

and seems out of step with the overall European Regulatory Framework. 79 Both NTT East

meaning internet accessed over legacy telephone copper and TV cable networks. 70 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) The Commission,

wireless helps deliver them. Already, wireless solutions are essential for getting basic broadband to those in rural areas where wired is not an option.

I want every European to have 30 Megabit coverage by 2020: and that's where next generation wireless networks will play a very important role.

Already today, in some places, 4g offers those speeds if not higher. I also want at least half of Europeans to have ultra-fast access at over 100 Megabits by 2020:

again, it is clear that no single technology will deliver this, no single magic potion will get us there overnight.

upgraded Cable, Fibre-to-the-Cabinet and LTE. 81 In a more recent major policy statement,

can be very cost-effective in delivering higher download capacity. 82 7. 2 Societal welfare benefits from facilities-based competition The values of competition are recognised well in the economic literature,

infrastructure-based competition 83 Facilities-based competition from cable is not sufficient to enable lifting of regulation from telecommunications incumbents,

it can help to correct any possible errors that might be made in regulatory price setting. 81 Neelie Kroes Vice-president of the European commission responsible for the Digital Agenda Giving Europe a Mobile Broadband Boost, 2012 Mobile

Deutsche telekom writes: Cable network operators are no longer small players. They acquire every second new customer.

but also mobile broadband technologies such as LTE. 85 They go on to provide concrete examples of their intent to threaten the core business of cable operators,

http://blogs. telekom. com/2012/08/16/telekom-bringt-wettbewerb-in-monopolstrukturen/./Auch auf diesem Markt sind die Kabelnetzbetreiber keine kleinen Spieler mehr:

Dabei setzten wir auf den richtigen Technologie-Mix aus (V) DSL und Glasfaser, aber auch mobilen Breitbandtechnologien wie LTE. 86

cable and mobile all compete, versus 1+competition, where only fixed and mobile compete. Facilities-based intermodal competition,

even if limited to discrete geographic areas, may have the tendency to constrain prices to reasonable levels across much larger geographic areas.

89 Feijoo and Barroso, op cit. Note that the figure shows a maximum speed of 30 Mbps

today, however, cable broadband offers of 100 Mbps or more are commonplace in many European countries. 73.74 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) REFERENCES Cable Europe Labs (2009:

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