which is one of the theories most integrated into current management thinking and emphasizes the importance of a resource-based view of an organization (Powell and Bradford, 2000;
for management 8 Semiconductors 9 Optics 10 Measurement 11 Analysis of biological materials 12 Control 13 Medical technology 14 Organic fine chemistry
where the possible source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management), 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 23 (Chemical engineering), 24 (Environmental technology
(Control) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Energy management technology/electricity storage technology/efficiently use distributed generation;
Source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management), 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry
and business strategy'',Management Science, Vol. 32 No. 10, pp. 1231-41. Barney, J. B. 1991),‘Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage'',Journal of Management, Vol. 17 No. 1, pp. 99-120.
Calof, J. and Smith, J. 2010),‘The integrative domain of foresight and competitive intelligence and its impact on R&d management'',R&d Management, Vol. 40 No. 1, pp. 31-9
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implications for strategy formulation'',California Management Review, Vol. 33 No. 3, pp. 114-35. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 71 Griliches, Z. 1990),‘Patent statistics as economic indicators:
Markides, C. and Williamson, P. 1994),‘Related diversificaton, core competences and corporate performance'',Strategic management Journal, Vol. 15, pp. 149-57.
Martin, B. R. 1995),‘Foresight in science and technology'',Technology analysis & Strategic management, Vol. 7 No. 2, pp. 139-68.
Attila Havas c, Ozcan Saritas d, e a EU DG JRC-IPTS, Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), SCN
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technology development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
A good management of stakeholders'participation, is therefore critical to improve trust within the community.
Applying Qualitative methods to Marketing Management Research, Palgrave Macmillan, Hampshire, United kingdom, 2004.3 J. Brannen, Mixed methods research:
management, Policy Pract. 14 (3)( 2012) 449 469.40 F. K. Jin, W. R. Fah, N d. En, L. M. Wei, L
regional economic policy, project management and market research. He has been involved in a diversity of European-wide research projects (the most recent one on Visions for the European research area)
a Chengdu Library of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, PR China b School of economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, PR China c
Such study can be used in management practice to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest
that is the TLC stage information of NBS. 3. Results and implications for management Table 5 shows the label results for each test point of NBS.
for product lifecycle management, Technical Report, STR/04/058/SP, Singapore Institute of Manufacturing Technology, 2004.3 T. A. Vijay, Challenges in product strategy
J. Banks, Forecasting and Management of Technology, 2nd Edition John Wiley, New york, NY, 2011.6 A l. Porter, M. Rader, Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study
Online at, http://www. hq. nasa. gov/office/codeq/trl/trlchrt. pdf. 9 A d. Little, The strategic management of technology.
European Management Forum, Davos, 1981.10 H. Ernst, The use of patent data for technological forecasting: the diffusion of CNC-technology in the machine tool industry, Small Bus. Econ. 9 (4)( 1997) 361 381.11 T. H. Lee, N. Nakicenovic, Life cycle of technology
including Tech Mining (Wiley, 2005) and Forecasting and Management of Technology (Wiley, 2011. Jing Wang is an Associate professor of Huaqiao University.
T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1147 the coevolutionary complexity of managing two inheritance systems (the vertical, genetic,
human technology is a part of a biologically co-evolved massive capacity for culture, managing two inheritance systems, vertical (twofold in scope, genetic and Lamarckian) and horizontal (pure Lamarckian in scope),
Early applications of adaptive policies are also found in the field of environmental management 30,31,
a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support, Integr. Assess. 4 (2003) 5 17.5 G. Yucel,
and Management, Mcgraw-hill, New york, 2003.22 E s. Schwartz, L. Trigeorgis, Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty:
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Technology policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2008, p. 285.37 E. Pruyt, J. Kwakkel, A bright future for system dynamics:
Change 77 (2010) 34 49.44 R. Lempert, M. Collins, Managing the risk of uncertain threshold response:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Caner Hamarat is a Phd researcher at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
Erik Pruyt is the Assistant professor of System Dynamics and Policy analysis at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2600 GA, Delft, The netherlands a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c
and advances in Air Traffic Management (ATM) technology radically alter the functioning of the sector 35.
or logistic growth to a maximum followed by logistic decline ATM technology Change in air traffic management technology,
the curves can be parameterized in various ways Exponential or logistic performance increase Engine technology (noise/emissions) Change in air traffic management technology,
as well as long-term management of their generator park. The short-term operation involves unit commitment decisions, and price bidding in the electricity market,
and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2008.14 J. H. Miller, Active nonlinear tests (ANTS) of complex simulation models, Manag.
Sci. 44 (1998) 820 830.15 J. H. Kwakkel, The Treatment of Uncertainty in Airport Strategic planning, Faculty of technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.16
and Management, Mcgraw-hill, New york, 2003.37 Schiphol Group, in: Lange Termijn Visie op de Ontwikkeling van de Mainport Schiphol:
Erik Pruyt is Assistant professor of System Dynamics and Policy analysis at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
Kristian Borch b, Ted Fuller c a SVR, Research centre of the Flemish Government, Boudewijnlaan 30, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium b Department of Management Engineering
Scenario building and planning was developed further for management purposes, for example through the works of Pierre Wack
37 (2005) 795 812.19 M. Godet, Integration of scenarios and strategic management: using relevant, consistent, and likely scenario, Futures 22 (1990) 730 739.20 M. Lindgren, H. Bandhold, Scenario planning:
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Kristian Borch has a background in biochemistry and conflict management. His field of interest is socio-technological aspects such as uncertainty
Currently Kristian is Head of Section in the Department of Management Engineering (DTU Man) at the Technical University of Denmark.
Dr. Petra Schaper-Rinkel, political scientist, is a senior scientist and scientific project manager at the AIT Austrian Institute of technology in Vienna.
innovation) and group phone discussion 3. New spatial distribution of innovation innovation chain management Anna Trifilova and Bettina von Stamm Professors, Innovation Management;
Innovation Management, Lithuania Creative session with Global Creators in Vilnius by an Innovation consultancy 7. Waste Based (open innovation Jay Cousins Founder of Open Design City
the next issue that will have to be tackled is the use of such transformative visions in actually managing transformative transition processes 34,35. 3 E g.
and R&d Management Conference Manchester 2nd of June 2010 (INFU workshop). 465 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 References 1 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C
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Elna Schirrmeister is a senior researcher and project manager at Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research since 1999.
Is it managing to co-evolve with what could be the emerging shape of research and innovation policy?
Luke Georghiou is Professor of Science and Technology policy and Management in the Manchester Institute of Innovation research at Manchester Business school.
design and innovation management while others mainly draw on empirical analysis and established FTA theory. The two papers that most clearly take a contextual improvement perspective (a) are the one by Dannemand Andersen and Baungaard Rasmussen and the one by Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin.
For this purpose they combine Foresight with elements from market research innovation management and human-centred product design.
Marinho and Cagnin propose the inclusion of elements of FTA PROCESSES in strategic management with the explicit aim of‘‘improving Performance Measurement Systems''.
''Based on three case studies they suggest that FTA could help overcome some of the limitations of management approaches by setting up stakeholder dialogues
On the one hand the authors explore the use of FTA in the context innovation networks and innovation management.
Their arguments and analyses bring together theoretical concepts from innovation studies, innovation management and foresight. They use an analytical framework that they call the‘‘Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)''to make the case for the convergent development of innovation
The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes Per Dannemand Andersen*,Lauge Baungaard Rasmussen Department for Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet 424,2800 Lyngby
P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 6 One of the most comprehensive and acknowledged studies of national styles in management, decision making
and he discusses the implication of each dimension for management and planning. As we will elaborate in the following,
The uncertainty avoidance dimension has several implications for national management and planning cultures. In particular, three of these implications relate to foresight:
Therefore, managers, specialists, craftsmen, etc. often shift employment from one company to another or from a public institution to a private firm.
which institutions and organisations are built and for management and planning. The two dimensions are power distance and uncertainty avoidance.
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In depth interviews were conducted with the four members of the municipality management team and with five civil servants who were involved in the scenario analysis.
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*Totti Ko nno la c adg Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic studies and Management
This paper addresses FTA and in particular foresight design and management in an international context. The aim is to draw lessons for international foresight processes on the basis of a specific international foresight project on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems.
and management of global foresight exercises building on the experience of designing and managing the Intelligent Manufacturing Systems (IMS) 2020 project.
All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.007 practice of the design and management of international foresight processes.
and management approaches used for such projects. Section 2 examines the available literature on international foresight management
and conceptualises design and managerial issues particularly relevant in the international context. Four principles for global foresight design and management are identified.
The ways in which these have been dealt with in practice are outlined in Section 3 on the basis of a case study,
Section 6 summarises the main conclusions. 2. Global foresight design and management The design and management of global foresight projects,
among others) 6. Managers of international exercises must also take into account the distinctiveness of local, regional and national subsysstem around the world.
Both struggle with temporal coordination of policies 8. Therefore, to enable an appropriate design, implementation and management of an international foresight exercise
all require prudent and balanced management 11. C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 28 In the design phase is important to structure aspects such the interactions between people (e g. participants, stakeholders, policy and decision makers,
and extensive communication glued together by a focused management team, form an important core capability that impacts on the ability of organisations to undertake strategic foresight.
can provide a relevant starting point. 2. 4. A‘glocal'impact orientation Many researchers specialised in international management 20,21 have argued for‘glocalization'as the transformation of global and local interests into a new
or unique form of operating that‘continually renews itself by balancing the organisational tensions and management paradoxes implicit'in international operations.
whereas formal networks enter a higher management level and are often institutionalised. C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 29 of results.
The innovation roadmaps 24 highlight the main milestones of innovation activities (i e. research and development, management and policy actions) which are needed to achieve a desired vision.
Table 1 summarises the main lessons learned using four principles that need to be taken into consideration when designing and managing an international foresight exercise.
Moreover, these tools offered major support for efficient and participatory management of the exercise since their use was integral part of its design.
and the communication procedures had been clarified to all from the outset, managing interactions, especially between partners, required more attention.
As mentioned, the scenario and vision building process required considerable behaviour and expectation management. In the first scenario building workshop a discussion of how scenarios could be deployed
which was critical to build ownership of results. 4. 4. A‘glocal'impact orientation The management of the exercise integrated discussions on the outcomes of the exercise from the very first project meetings.
The identification of four principles for global foresight design and management, and the ways in which these have been dealt with in practice,
we conclude that online working tools offer major support for efficient and participatory management of global foresight.
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and management and organisation of science. These disciplines could provide frameworks to analyse some of the advantages and benefits of FTA APPROACHES.
and as an aid in the management of supply chains. For FTA on Higher education, the objective was to stimulate forwardlookking strategic reflections
Involved in the management of the European Technology assessment Group providing scientific services for the European parliament's Scientific Technological Options Assessment (STOA) panel, the technology assessment unit of the European parliament.
and influenced the increased emphasis on principles such as connectedness, interaction and knowledge sharing in R&d and innovation management.
In a next research phase, these potential Lead User-ideas were evaluated by a group of 15 Flemish experts in the field of digital TV (consisting of content managers and innovation managers from Flemish broadcasters
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c Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), Brasi'lia, Brazil 1. Introduction One of the main challenges faced by organisations resides in executing planned strategies 1 3. The misalignment between strategy-design
10, involve mid-management in strategy formulation 6, execution is a component of strategy and must be the core element of the company's culture 9 and adjustment of organisational strategy elements 6,
The BSC is a management system that presents a firm's vision and strategies in four perspectives:
and (4) alignment and management of the scope of objectives facilitating feedback and strategic learning with the aim of transforming strategy into a continuous process.
partly because it is rooted in a static and linear view of management and does not take into account the ability to flexibly adapt
Strategic management of initiatives: these refer to the actions selected in each of the four BSC perspectives to achieve the defined strategic targets (step 1 above.
The organisations facilitated access to information through meetings between managers and the staff responsible for implementing the proposed system.
i e. formalised in this way a‘‘contract''to implement a new management model. Moreover the involvement of managers in the implementation of the proposed system generated commitment on the one hand and, on the other hand,
‘‘inside'information that allowed us to both validate the methodology proposed and to identify needs for improvements.
Moreover, the insights generated via discussions with the managers were used to promote an indeept analysis of the existing BSC
The reality of public management in Brazil is marked by a lack of financial resources and excessive social problems
Overall, the implementation of government policies should take place through transparent and efficient public management. It should,
In this context, the proposed system aimed to become an important strategic tool for monitoring the effectiveness of public management. 3. 1. 2. Description The first case aimed to assess the efficiency of the Brazilian State of Parana in sharing
and the feedback mechanisms developed (phase 4) allowed an increase in effectiveness regarding public management.
nor the shaping of a shared vision to be developed. 3. 2. An example from the higher education sector 3. 2. 1. Rationale The second case focused on a higher education institution that was pursuing a management model focused on efficiency standards for sustainability and continuity in the long run.
The objective was to change the current management model based on improvisation common sense and past experiences. 3. 2. 2. Description The second case aimed at verifying
Through the Management of Strategic Initiatives (step 5 phase 3) the institution was able to properly map the university processes
This is true even in stages one would believe to be otherwise, like in the development of scenarios, in the construction of strategy maps or in the strategic management of initiatives.
The paper attempts to bridge such gap by bringing together management research and practice with FTA,
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of Applied sciences, Academy for Creative industries, The netherlands c Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship, University of Potsdam, August-Bebel-Straße 89,14482 Potsdam, Germany d EICT Gmbh
Innovation networks Futures research Foresight Networked foresight Open innovation A b s T R A c T Along with the rise of the now popular‘open'paradigm in innovation management,
first, by investigating the relationship and analogies of innovation management and futures research; second, by explicating the link of futures research to innovation networks.
The article finishes with concluding remarks. 2. Toward networked foresight 2. 1. Analogies in the development of innovation management and futures research Liyanage 13, Niosi 14 and Ortt and van der Duin 15
van der Duin et al. 16 distinguished between four different generations of innovation management: 1. Technology push:
The project was intended to increase the understanding of the US car market by having managers live with ordinary American families for a certain time
First, the close connection between innovation management and futures research and analogies in their past developments hint at networked foresight as a logical next generation of futures research.
Moreover, activities observable in the three cases are Table 1 Generations of innovation management and futures research (based on van der Duin 3
The management is responsible for consistent interconnected and balanced links between the other components. It also includes setting out an inspiring vision of the future,
Rijkswaterstaat WINN Rijkswaterstaat (RWS, part of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment) is responsible for the management and implementation of the Dutch road and water infrastructure.
exploring and developing innovations in the Dutch water infrastructure and management. The program had two main slogans:‘‘
''Therein, Rijkswaterstaat aimed at acting as network manager and facilitator to integrate all interested parties.
and the overall manager to define a set of‘themes'that together should constitute the vision for the innovations developed in WINN.
Leadership had the tasks of (1) managing the program in this political context, (2) establishing a common understanding of innovation,‘openness'and involved risks,
the network manager had Table 2 The three roles of foresight as described by Rohrbeck
and WINN were mostly singular activities that focused on solutions for the water and landscape management.
and new product development with expertise in innovation management, project management, and IT infrastructure. 2) All the founding partners had a strong international focus.
The integration of new partners with additional competences, ideas and insights broaden the innovation potential of the network. 4. 2. 5. Networked foresight activities Futures research activities are conducted in particular within the innovation management unit of EICT.
and EICT as an innovation network is addressed not within the foresight activities of the innovation management unit.
and other studies Program 2. 2 Business field exploration Explores predefined business fields with various innovation management methods, i e.,
Until 2010, the selection of innovation activities was made by the management team in various workshops based on proposals that were submitted by the partner organizations.
and evaluates the best practices in close cooperation with the network's management team. The aim is to create a continuously developing organization by establishing state-of-the-art methodologies
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 70 executive steering board and a chief executive officer (CEO), who leads a management team with 12 members.
and exploit new topics and challenges successfully (efficiency) and (3) stakeholder management. Effectiveness and efficiency are addressed by several activities in the network:
The importance of stakeholder management results from the inter-organizational setup of the EIT ICT Labs. Organizations with very different backgrounds, philosophies and cultures, interests and goals,
Thus, the management of the organization needs to gauge the interests of the partners, emphasize the benefits for each individual partner organization
the program management from Rijkswaterstaat was focused more internally and less‘open'than one would expect.
Second, pressure from the top management level of RWS to present short-term results in addition to conceptual work about possible future developments created a kind of‘‘the urgent drives out the important''atmosphere as Henri Kissinger put it.
Despite the communication of openness the management of WINN should embrace external partners to a higher degree. The partner network could be used to a higher degree within mid-to long-term foresight instruments
and three industry partners and its division into the three units project management, innovation management and IT appears to be suitable to perform collaborative innovation activities in selected topics.
EICT is equipped to manage projects to provide methodological expertise and IT knowledge and to provide the suitable tools for the early steps of innovation from topic identification to execution of large-scale R&d projects.
and review process lead by the management team ensures continuous tracking and adjusting of the network's activities.
the management of the organization cannot impose open innovation processes on its employees; it can only create an adequate environment with supporting instruments.
and business results. 5. The existence of a management team within the network facilitates the use of results from networked foresight to define
Third, the management teams of the three networks need to establish ways to integrate and utilize the information that its partners contribute.
first, the close connection and analogies of innovation management and futures research hint at networked foresight as the logical next generation of futures research;
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