An integral part of the Nanoned programme (3%of the budget) is the assessment of social, political, economical and environmental/health issues.
NGO's and other societal actors articulate the social, political and economic aspects of the new technological field.
merely to inform parliaments about possible negative effects of new technologies. In the early 1970s15 this more and more changed to a means for better policy analysis.
The OTA was closely related to the United states congress, but ceased to exist in 1995. R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1108 development of dusefult applications of technology, CTA
A Technical, Political and Institutional Map of Emerging technologies, Greenpeace Environmental Trust, London, 2003, July 14 Royal Society, Royal Academy of Engineering, Nanoscience and nanotechnologies:
Although urban planning takes different forms in diverse political, cultural and socioeconomic contexts, there is a standard process
and disseminate knowledge deriving from the foresight exercises amongst stakeholders and political decision-makers. In spite of the above-mentioned advantages, territorial foresight has clear limitations.
economic, environmental and political problems in a territory. Second, foresight cannot impose consensus when there are deep disagreements between territorial stakeholders.
frequent disputes between political, social and economic stakeholders hinder consensus. Horizontal elements such as legislation, technology and management are weak in the first stages of the planning stages,
In their efforts to establish a legal framework characterised by the fundamental values of order, stability and predictability, legislators,
These authors claim that an examination of this kind should draw on the relevant disciplines of social sciences and humanities (SSH), such as epistemology, political science, sociology, economics,
and to support the political decision-making process 6 which, only after a series of political iterations, culminates in the enactment of pieces of legislation.
Despite the influence that the utilisation of FTA TOOLS may exert on the finally enacted laws,
and to facilitate better social, economic and political participation. Interestingly enough, the‘‘Participatory Platform will also craft populated virtual worlds very much like our real world,
and assist decision making and political participation processes. In effect, the use of modelling systems corresponds to one of the most recent trends in FTA.
legislators would need to explain both the future need and the future consequences that a particular piece of legislation would address (preferably through the support of scenario planning and/or the use of modelling analysis). In order words,
legislators would define their desirable futures in laws, using the latter as enablers of their vision of the future.
which the desired future envisaged by the legislator would be compared with the future effectively attained (that is,
and legislators to identify future regulatory gaps and needs. These surveys constitute adequate tools to collect information
legislators and legal practitioners to better understand the world in which Law needs to operate.
scenario planning can be associated with modelling analysis to allow legislators to test different legal options and regulatory solutions within simulated environments.
I believe that the employment of modelling systems in political discussion and deliberation exercises should also be used in the preparatory phases of legislative procedures.
and simulation platforms to parliamentary activities of lawmaking processes as another example of a FTA technique applied to Law.
I trust that Parliaments would benefit greatly from the use of modelling and simulation techniques aimed at uncovering future societal, economic and environmental trends.
Through the use of modelling instruments, legislators would not only be able to receive relevant information of future societal trends
Modelling techniques would allow legislators and decision makers to test the prospective impacts and consequences of a given change in legislation.
The latter could in this way help legislators to better enact new laws and revise existing ones, contributing to better lawmaking
it would also render legislators and legal practitioners more attentive (and also more accountable) to the outcomes and impact of enacted or revised legislation.
as well as the political capital invested in regulatory management systems PAGE 344 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 now established in most OECD countries.
as well as reinforcing the political accountability of policy (and law makers. With the incorporation of FTA instruments, the revision of laws and the design of future ones would be complemented with better quality assessment procedures.
In this respect, legislators should have at their disposal the largest quantity and quality of information available about the society,
employed to fulfil certain political or entrepreneurial objectives instead of being used as a neutral and scientific instrument in support of better law making and legal research.
it is the site of politics, regardless of the claim that is sometime made for foresight that it is a neutral space for debate and consensus formation.
and the political bias surrounding the legislative process, the application of foresight methods and tools to Law should be as scientifically-sound as possible.
''Along the same parliamentary lines, but on the other side of the Atlantic, we currently have the example of the Scientific Technology Options assessment (STOA),
which might require the attention of legislators at some later point in time''.''Regarding technology assessment, it is interesting to note that it‘‘originally emerged with the aim of contributing to the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches of government,
but also from an economic, political or a social perspective. PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,
as well as of the strategic implications for national legislators derived from the analysis of those scenarios,
interactive and communicative process with the aim to contribute to the public and political opinion forming on science and technology related societal aspects 1 like exploitation of potential, dealing with secondary effects,
and deployed with significant participation of national governments for dcustomerst in politics like parliaments or administrations.
the role of governments or politics as important players in the innovation process has changed. First there is a significant shift away from a direct governmental participation in the innovation process towards a concentration of national governments on the shaping of framework conditions for innovation.
political paradigms have changed, EU legislation and international competition leave less room for direct governmental activities in many technological fields.
Even in politics the term is used for implementation plans of political goals. For a detailed discussion of the different types of roadmaps, their scopes, objectives, methodologies and time-scales see e g.
political requirements to orientate R&d budgets on the potential contribution of new developments to sustainable development puts some pressure on the TA practitioner.
Political priorities are altering and new governance structures are evolving, reflecting growing interdependence and complexity and the need for decision-making under uncertainty.
and the Office of Technology assessment at the German Parliament (TAB), he is currently heading the project group btechnology Assessment for Nanotechnologiesq at ITAS.
His position may differ in many regards from the views expressed in recent political discourses,
These invade both the qualitative and quantitative pieces of information that are joined to create outcomes for policy and management in all the STEEPV themes (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology, Politics and Values and Norms.
Politics, tradition and aesthetics in the modern social order. Cambridge: Polity Press. Bell, A. 1876.
Critical review of International Social and Political Philosophy 3, no. 4: 49 67. Knight, F. H. 1921.
These invade both the qualitative and quantitative information co-joined to create outcomes for policy and management in all the STEEPV (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology, Politics andvalues and Norms) themes.
and political consequences have been assessed? Similarly, any business has a certain momentum that will ensure its continuity for an uncertain time into the future in the absence of some new
Politics and Values and Norms) set to begin to offer risky insights into what is possible in all the STEEPV themes and their probabilities for the future.
Its purpose now is to set technology in the context of socioeconomic matters, ecology, politics and human values/norms of the STEEPV set.
Currentftacomponents of foresight, forecasting and TA are simply not able to cope with the welter of information now available to anyone with the wit to look for it nor is FTA able to cope with the increasing complexity of the tasks it faces, often with very significant political interventions and implications.
but do they remain so in the face of the political and social worlds'demands for immediacy that underlie the mode of living of modern society?
Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority-setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political
The market is a distinct selection environment, next to institutional (regulations), cultural or political selection environments.
In addition, a justification of the political aim of the exercise (see Table 1) should include the performative and strategic consequences of the exercise.
This involves studies of technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 780 H. van Lente assessment, foresight, intermediary organisations, politics of knowledge production and philosophy of technology.
Where are the politics. Perspectives on democracy and technology. Science, Technology and Human Values 3, no. 5: 559 81.
these are the political, economic, ecological, societal, and technological (PEEST) landscapes that surrooun the business micro environment
while relatively accuraat in the short term, forecasting accuracy diminishes in the medium and long terms as political, economic, social,
Foresight activities address major trends and forces in the political, economic, infrastructural, social, and cultural landscapes which are likely to shape the future of the transport
the foresight analysis highlighted increasing operating costs due to social and political concerns, as well as the likelihood of strong pressure to reduce prices to consumers,
economics, society, and politics. A relevant example has been the development of the‘Smart'car concept.
Cagnin 2005), namely social (S), spatial-technological (ST), economic (E), ecological (Ec), political (P) and values-norms (V)( acronym SSTEEPV.
spatial-technological, institutional-political and cultural-values. Cooperation and dynamic partnerships (Holliday, Schmidheiny, and Watts 2002) are the cornersstone of networked sustainability.
spatial-technological, social, economic, environmmenta or ecological, political-institutional and cultural-values. Living systems share matter, information and energy with their external environments:
Proceedings of theworld Congress of the Systems sciences and ISSS 2000, Toronto, Canada. Donaire, D. 1999.
and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed
and the wider social settings (e g. geographical, organisational, political, economic, and ethical). In our model, the knowledge space that analyses these wider socio-technical constellations is the strategy space.
The success of research policy is dependent on the alignment of a broad range of relevant stakeholders from academia, industry, politics, and society.
They are initiated wide-ranging dialogues by political sponsors of foresight activities and similar strategy processes and involve stakeholders from politics, academia, industry and society.
The overall aim lies in making foresight results as usable and useful as possible in the work of research policy makers and in turning the transfer into an integral part of policy development.
Details of the optimum approach depend on the subject matter as well as political considerations. Key results of strategic dialogues are the development of recommendations for the BMBF as input for future research policy.
In particular, research policy makers operate in the context of political priorities and guidelines that are set at higher levels of the government institutions they work in.
and society in addition to politics, combining their perspectives at an early stage to explore promising pathways for politic decision making.
Relevant stakeholders from politics need to be identified at the beginning of the process to ensure their involvement in initializing the strategic dialogue and clarifying relevant issues and expected results.
External stakeholders are being identified in the course of the process based on input from political stakeholders complemented by input from our own research as well as established networks into academia and industry.
Thus, a basic common understanding amongst political stakeholders of the topic and its challenges is achieved. Well-structured summaries based on desk research help to prepare the discussion
politics and society and to develop recommendations for further supporting activities. The size of such workshops ranges from 30 to 80 participants. 4. 7 Step 7:
and industry as well as politics and researched internationally (steps 1, 2, 3). Key issues were crystallized in a dialogue process with the BMBF (step 4) combined with consolidated results from semi-structured interviews with 40 experts
They trigger and facilitate opinion-forming processes within political institutions and involve other relevant stakeholders in a wide-ranging dialogue to deal with societal challenges.
Global drivers and trends analysis. The first main phase of the exercise consisted of an initial analysis of global drivers and trends across the PESTLE categories (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legislative, and Environmental.
and where the traditional political and governance models are being disrupted. How can Ireland maintain its standing
and reputation as‘‘a player''and good partner in global politics and trade in uncertain times?
These FS1 results were used as an information source for many political purposes: B revision of National S&t priorities and Critical technologies;
Table IV The influence of the foresight studies on policy decision-making Influence on policy-making Evaluation of influence on policy-making FS1 The foresight data were used as an information source for many political purposes:
social and business innovation simultaneously supported by political will. Furthermore, 5 and 13 underline the ongoing need for the greater involvement of stakeholders who can introduce necessary capabilities
and holds a Phd from the London School of economics and Political science in the field of Economic geography.
business or politics (as in the case of globalization) or restricted to more scientific discussion rounds (the case of complexity),
Integrating Science and Politics for the Environment, Island Press, Washington, 1993.33 D. Collingridge, The Social control of Technology, Frances Pinter Publisher, London, UK, 1980.34 J. P. Brans
Social and Political sciences & Solvay Business school of the Free University of Brussels. His research focuses mainly on the multidimensional dynamics of complex systems,
and the political sciences, are involved in providing model-based decision support. In these various fields, people are grappling with the treatment of deep and irreducible uncertainty
political uncertainty about future CO2 abatement policies such as emission trading; and socioeconomic uncertainty about fuel prices, investment decisions of suppliers,
political uncertainty about future CO2 abetment policies such as emission trading; and socioeconomic uncertainty about fuel prices, investment decisions of suppliers,
Social and Political sciences & Solvay Business school of the Free University of Brussels. His research focuses mainly on the multidimensional dynamics of complex uncertain systems,
cultural and political power as well as by technological rationalism and such indeterminism makes systemic approaches to innovation policy far from linear or predictable.
Gaston Berger started using scenarios to explore the long-term political and social future. He founded the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives
How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change, Pearson, Prentice hall, New york, 2006.69 U. Beck, Ecological Politics in an Age of Risk, Polity Press, Cambridge, 1995.70 L. M. Ricard, K
Many studies in the field of science and technology studies (STS) have shown that nanotechnology is as much a political as a cultural phenomenon 11 14.
and visionary policy documents have been a main source for analyzing the social and political dimensions of nanotechnology in the broad range of STS,
anticipatory activities included a wide range of stakeholders from politics, academia, industry and NGOS, as well as independent parties cf. 23.
Since 2004, risk has become the subject of political concern as well as the subject of analysis. Public opinion about nanotechnology
The pluralistic nature of the US R&d system, the diverse, dynamic nature of US national political bodies and the limitations of US foresight history makes centralized goal-setting across many
In 2003 the Office of Technology assessment at the German Parliament conducted a broad technology assessment on nanotechnology 49.
and research to pool the distributed strategic knowledge gained from different activities such as technology intelligence, parliamentary technology assessment, technology monitoring and dialogue processes.
The function of these participatory processes can be seen as part of acceptance politics 57 that attempts to increase acceptance of emerging technologies.
The forward-looking activities of the US nanotechnology initiative have had a major impact on the future orientation within the US political realm with regard to nanotechnology governance
VDI, Düsseldorf, 1994.20 POST, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology policy, in: Making it in Miniature Nanotechnology Report Summery, POST, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology policy, London, 1996, p. 4. 451 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change
80 (2013) 444 452 21 I. Malsch, Nanotechnology in Europe: Experts'Perceptions and Scientific Relations Between Sub-areas, Brussels Luxembourg, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 1997.22 National science and Technology Council, Nanotechnology, in:
performing and obscuring a political conceptual categorymistake, East Asian Sci. Technol Soc: Int. J. 1 (2007) 99 110.57 D. Barben, Analyzing acceptance politics:
towards an epistemological shift in the public understanding of science and technology, Public Underst. Sci. 19 (2010) 274 292.58 E. Altvater, B. Mahnkopf, The world market unbound, Rev.
In the current less stable economic, political and social environment it is possible to apply such a lens to the preceding two or three decades.
Interestingly, these difficulties in the political and public spheres are less evident in the private sector where business,
This lack of impact has led policy-makers to require that the content of foresight exercises relate to current political agendas
In a discussion of the use of the concept of systems thinking in foresight, Saritas distinguishes between external and internal context 6. The external context is the set of STEEPV factors (Social, Technological, Economical, Environment, Political
The decisive context in Keenan and Popper's work is differences in political tradition: established democracies (as found in Northwest Europe and North america),
Countries'or regions'political culture might be closely related to national governance culture. Havas et al. use governance culture to distinguish between the innovation policies in Western European countries, on the one hand,
This paper starts with the somewhat ambiguous concepts of national political tradition and national governance culture as decisive contexts for analysing
Hence, the aim of this paper is to contribute, in general, to the discussion of national (or political, governing,
The Globalisation Strategy and the Research2015 process are two attempts to combine the strong Danish tradition for political compromises, negotiations and stakeholder inclusion with evidence-and expertise-based prospective elements.
or political issues is associated with personal antipathies. In societies that have more uncertainty avoidance, foresight processes might be seen to create a political battlefield where stakeholders with conflicting viewpoints seek to win the battle,
whereas stakeholders in societies that display less uncertainty avoidance are more likely to seek consensus. However,
In an influential book‘Varieties of capitalism'23 the political economists Hall and Soskice distinguish between Liberal Market economies (LME) and‘Coordinated Market economies (CME.
political and sociocultural contexts that might differ from region to region. Keenan and Popper focus on foresight as a political instrument,
and naturally, make some simplifying assumptions about political traditions. This simplification leads to a categorisation of countries into three distinguishing political traditions:(
1) established democracies, as found in Northwest Europe and North america, (2) third wave democracies, as found in Southern and Eastern europe and South america,
and (3) Asian democracies. The second factor is the history of foresight diffusion and adoption.
Hofstede's power distance dimension corresponds only to some extent to Keenan and Popper's differentiation of political traditions.
and Power in Denmark'that was launched by the Danish Parliament shortly before the new millennium 27.
White papers have seemed often negotiated rather than analytical presentations of political issues...It almost seems as though there is a guiding principle a la‘‘We'll figure it out as we go we can always fix things
Thus, in Danish political contexts, participatory and consensus elements have, most likely, more appeal to policy makers than systematic and analytical elements.
and internationally recognised role in the political and wider public debate that concerns the potential and consequences of science and technology.
DBT has been serving as parliamentary technology assessment and utilised interaction-oriented methods, such as futures workshops, citizen panels and consensus conferences.
The combination of the widespread use of policy evaluations and the DBT's parliamentary technology assessment might have constituted a platform for policy making that would make the need for foresight less urgent.
This changing context has created a need for foresight understood to be political priority-setting for strategic research. 3. 2. Danish experiments with technology foresight In a green paper from 1995,
The working group recommended that the Danish parliament launched a programme for technology foresight that has a budget of DKK 25 30 million (ca. EUR 3. 3 4. 2 million) over three years.
This strategy provided political impetus for the Research2015 project, which is the second case. Research2015 aimed to set priorities for the government's strategic research programme or at least, parts of this programme. 4. 1. The government's Globalisation Strategy In the spring of 2005,
The suggested initiatives were translated subsequently into political initiatives and legislation. The Globalisation Strategy garnered wide party support in the parliament,
including both the three parties behind the government and two opposition parties. 4. 2. The Research2015 project One of the suggested initiatives for the Globalisation Strategy concerned a‘better basis for prioritising,
'which aimed to strengthen the basis for the political priorities of funding for strategic research. The intention was not to launch strategic research as a scientific underpinning of political priorities.
Contrariwise the aim was to prioritise strategic research in areas of political interest. The initiative should identify the research needs created by societal and business developments as well P. D. Andersen,
L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 12 as the capability of Danish research institutions to meet these needs.
and it could constitute a common reference framework for the Danish Parliament's political negotiations for the allocation of resources for strategic research.
which was initiated by a passage in the Parliament in November 2006 as part of the national budget negotiations for 2007.
In this phase, the number of themes was reduced to 21 (see Box 1). The fourth phase included the implementation of the results as political priorities for strategic research.
This implementation came in the form of political negotiations in the context of the budget bill for 2009,2010 and 2011.
During the parliament's budget negotiation in 2008 approximately half of the 21 themes were received prioritised
other factors, particularly the Parliament's energy agreement, have contributed significantly to the prioritisation process. The key actors in this phase were the five negotiators from each of the five parties that were behind the Globalisation Strategy.
During the parliament's budget negotiation in 2008, approximately DKK 1 bn (ca. EUR 134 million) was allocated to strategic research in the two year period of 2009 and 2010.
The rest are priorities set by parliament through the typical political negotiations. Compared with total competitive2 part of the Danish governmental R&d expenditures,
and that basis was used actually to set political priorities for strategic research. That Research2015's effect on the fiscal act can be verified may be unique in an international context.
What is not clear is how the political priorities for strategic research would have appeared without the Research2015 process. 2 The total governmental R&d expenditures consist of two parts:
such as the Globalisation Strategy's initiatives on political priority setting for strategic research and the allocation of 50%more public funding for research, require a degree of risk taking
political negotiations are the main basis for political decisions in Denmark 27. In the Danish context
Implementation of the Research2015 catalogue in real policy Political negotiations in Parliament, starting with the Fiscal Act of 2009 Most(>75%)of the 21 themes for strategic research were receiving budgets Speakers from the parties
in Parliament who were behind the budget (5) P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 15 5. Conclusion and perspectives This paper aims to contribute to the discussion of national cultures'effects on national foresight exercises.
Denmark in the Global economy, Working papers, vol. 18, International Center For Business and Politics, Copenhagen Business school, 2005.26 R. Popper, How are selected foresight methods?
other issues and (political) interests start playing a role as well. Also, in the‘organizational foresight'study, the various foresight studies of the future carried out by the government departments are designed to form initial ideas and opinions about organisational change.
and write about certain future issues that were deemed politically inappropriate by their previous political masters. 3. 5. 3. Organisational
of which are‘political'(e g.,, the status of a certain Minister or Secretary in the cabinet) in nature,
albeit with an interesting nuance when it comes to the interaction between the Ministry and Parliament:
Members of Parliament often argued that they should focus much more on short-term matters. It was concluded also that, at the national level,
Support from the (political) top of the organisation can be very helpful in countervailing these nonrational forces. 3. 5. 4. Leadership and confidence According to the local level interviewees
which may be explained by the fact that both organisational levels are related to each other from a governmental and political perspective.
political, value, cultural, among others) 6. Managers of international exercises must also take into account the distinctiveness of local, regional and national subsysstem around the world.
as well as the political momentum and support it generated. It developed a fruitful collaboration between public bodies
These would require long-lasting decision processes within the public, the political decision structures, and the public administration.
Nonetheless, there was a push to extend concepts and theoretical insights from these areas to a larger variety of social sciences and humanities disciplines, such as epistemology, political science, sociology, economics
and she has a degree on Political sciences from the University of Milan (Italy. Alan Porter Dr. Porter is Director of R&d for Search Technology, Inc.,Norcross,
studied sociology, psychology, political science and economics. Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of the Research centre Karlsruhe, joined ITAS'forerunner AFAS in 1979 and has worked
Attachment to the Secretariat of the German Bundestag's Enquete Commission on Technology assessment prior to the creation of the German Parliament's Office of Technology assessment (TAB),
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