in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Research limitations/implications In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners
Recent research in Spain (Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al. 2009-2011) has shown that most public agencies in charge of urban and regional planning,
and a Member of the Research group GIAU þ S based at the Urban and Regional planning Department,
innovative research efforts geared to bridging the gap between these two fields of knowledge. 4. How to reconcile territorial foresight and urban planning Despite its apparent benefits,
Due to the scarcity of research resources and the complexity of the topic, progress had to be attained through a slow, piecemeal effort in different research projects and academic activities.
and the city planning process. 4. Partial evidence for determining parametric and spatial implications in the study area was gathered in a research project financed by the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid (Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al.,
and conclusions Although the research findings are not conclusive since the methodological approach has to be tested further in a wide variety of urban contexts,
2007),‘Sostenibilidad de las periferias metropolitanas de la Comunidad de Madrid'',Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid, Madrid, research project.
, research project in progress. Foresight for Regional development Network (2001), Practical Guide to Regional foresight, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Sevilla.
United nations (1992),‘Agenda 21 Report'',United nations Conference on Environment and Development, 3-14 june, Ri'o de Janeiro. van der Heijden, K. 1996), Scenarios:
and a Member of the Research group GIAUÞS, based at the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid.
ISSN 1463-6689 DOI 10.1108/14636681211256116 Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade is a Scientific Officer and Legal expert with the Information society Unit, European commission, Joint research Centre (JRC
and in some cases shape technological futures 2. It was used first by the European commission's (EC) Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) as a common umbrella term for technology foresight
I shall briefly explain how each of these tools were used in this particular research project. Delphi think pieces.
Further research is needed in this area, namely in terms of formulating quality standards and assessment methods 21 for such activities (which is,
Further research is needed therefore on better ways to incorporate quantitative FTA APPROACHES to legal activities, studying how for example modelling techniques can assist Law without threatening its independence as a fundamental human (and not machine driven) activity. 4. 2. 4 Distinction and legitimacy.
and research policy cases within the European commission (EC), identified‘‘a potential gap between the contributions of researchers
About the author Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade is a Scientific Officer at the Information society Unit of the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.
His research interests are focused on law and technology (including biotechnology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, genetics and genomics, digital environments, ambient intelligence), data protection and privacy law, intellectual property, philosophy of law and legal theory.
accepted 2 october 2004 Abstract Technology assessment reflecting on R&d and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research
while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (N10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socioeconomic context of a technical product
which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media.
by research policy or its think tanks and consultants are rather broad and unspecific, and they leave lots of room for interpretation.
Many of the developments called dnanotechnologyt are scientific findings and curiosities rather than R&d results close to a technological application.
Most activities that are considered as R&d in the field of nanotechnology are basic or applied research rather than technology development.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1115 considered as the most important bridge between basic research and marketable products and processes.
which are taken already at early stages of an R&d project about its objectives, its design or its course
Q 6 The probably most comprehensive overview of relevant research on and current knowledge about roadmapping, together with a critical discussion of the potential of roadmapping approaches which are applied usually to sustaining technologies to offer insights into disruptive technologies,
political requirements to orientate R&d budgets on the potential contribution of new developments to sustainable development puts some pressure on the TA practitioner.
There is a growing need to connect current nanotechnology research activities with visions of applications as well as to structure this field of investigation.
Many activities that are considered as nanotechnology are closer to R&d for enabling technologies than they are embedded in a product (or process) development,
Its central goal is to obtain a well-structured connection between R&d activities in this field and potential fields of application and ideas for products.
Discover new research options and alternative pathways;!Support agenda-setting, strategy development and trans-disciplinary communication;!Make clear communications with sponsors and stakeholders.
Among other goals, the project aims at structuring the R&d field of nanomaterials, at building a knowledge base for further detailed investigations about the potential of nanomaterials, especially with regard to sustainable development,
The second effort is negotiated currently to be tested within our own research organisation. We are trying to convince experts from different disciplines
and institutes (representing basic research on nanotechnology related phenomena, material researchers and developers, systems engineering, toxicology of nanoscopic structures,
The science-driven approach is starting with the current research activities, its results and plans for their continuation and is aiming at opening
Some reflections on the role that science roadmapping can play for research organisations how the experiences with technology roadmapping in companies or industries can be adapted for our T. Fleischer et al./
which has to be tied closely to the current developments in R&d and whose results can be fed back into the scientific, technological and also societal decision-making and agenda-setting processes.
others think that the application of planning tools to topics of basic research might confine creativity
Since 2003 he is a member of the scientific staff and since February 2004 deputy head of the Institute for Technology assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) at the Research centre Karlsruhe.
and systemic changes A series of conferences on future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) has been organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre over the past years.
and present four case studies of road mapping projects from the Technical research Centre of Finland (VTT). How to forecast technologies that depend mainly on discontinuous advances?
which constitutes a large research infrastructure (www. decisiontheater. org). 5. See e g. Denning (2005) on the use of narrative tools in combination with strategic analysis for addressing transformational innovation.
Research policy 11, no. 3: 147 62. Engel, P. G. H. 1997. The social organization of innovation:
Research policy 5, no. 3: 212 39. Von Hippel, E. 1988. The sources of innovation. Newyork:
Ozcan Saritas is a Research fellow at Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR) in Manchester Business school, UK.
Anticipation occurs in many more domains, in particular, in areas of science and technology, which are predicated on ideas of progress.
research institutes and policy circles (Borup et al. 2006; Van Lente and Bakker 2010. Expectations are produced, circulated, adapted and are forceful in various ways (Berkhout 2006).
varying from governmental agencies, funding agencies to individual research institutes or firms (Luiten, van Lente, and Blok 2006).
level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority-setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions
partners and stakeholders networks Research institutions first step in strategic process Source: Schoen et al. 2011). ) by universities and firms, the production, diffusion and transfer of knowledge;(
The arena includes research funding and related agencies and mediates between the governmental actors and the research actors.
If spoken by the head of a laboratory of the same company in front of its R&d department,
Companies use the prediction of Moore to decide on the R&d goals and the size of the investments.
Expectations thus reduce uncertainty in much the same way as heuristics do in research and development (Nelson andwinter 1982.
but the work of networks of companies and research institutions. When a central control is lacking,
His research interests concern how emerging technologies such as nanotechnology hydrogen and medical technologies produce novelty and needs.
Research policy 18, no. 5: 273 88. Bakker, S.,H. van Lente, and M. Meeus. 2011.
Research policy 30, no. 5: 819 36. Eames, M.,W. Mcdowall, M. Hodson, and S. Marvin. 2006.
The main goal of this paper is to address this research question. We aim at expanding our understanding of environmental uncertainty by exploring the different kinds of drivers of change
Future pharmaceutical R&d activities also promised to require huge investmennts so implying that resources had to be shifted from other, more attractive, business areas.
A specific initiative the‘Probes Program'has been established recently as a long-run (10-year time horizon) research project intended to present‘provocations'about new lifestyle patterns,
Philips'foresight activities included as well Philips Research the group's corporate R&d unit which regularly develops technology roadmaps concerning the group main business sectors.
where a specific research unit (an‘Innovation Field')has been established for each of the company business segments.
However, much additional research must be done for improving and expanding this conceptual framework through the study of environmental uncertaiint and foresight activities in other industries and firms.‘
and EIRMA (European Industrial research Management Association) in the European union. 2. A significant number of managers of the firms we studied pointed out that they had great difficulty in finding
His main research fields are foresight methodologies and strategic management of technology and innovation. He has presented on these themes at international conferences
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnin a b & Denis Loveridge c a DG Joint research
8 september 2012,797 820 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnina, b*and Denis Loveridgec adg Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological
The overall research strategy is depicted in Appendix 1. Currently, both supply chain management and CSR use financial rhetoric (e g. social, ethical and environmental) embedded in shareholder logic.
Assessment of quality and maturity level of R&d. International Journal of Production Economics 78, no. 1: 29 35.
Organizational learning through post-project reviews in R&d. R&d Management 32, no. 3: 255 68.
Zohar, D. 1990. O Ser Quântico: Uma Visão Revolucionária da Naureza Humana e da Consciência Baseada na Nova Física.
accepted 16 september 2004 Abstract Sandia National Laboratories conducts a variety of research projects each year under its Laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) program.
a second set of visualizations was created to include data on all U s. Department of energy (DOE)- funded R&d activities related to the IAS.
This analysis added value in that the IA leads obtained information that assisted them in the evaluation and redirection of their R&d activities.
This unique set of technologies represents the development of a strong and innovative R&d portfolio.
This is a research question and possible future that is worthy of exploration. Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the LDRD Program, Sandia National Laboratories,
constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland Toni Ahlqvist a, Minna Halonen a, Annele Eerola a, Sirkku Kivisaari a, Johanna Kohl a, Raija Koivisto
a, Jouko Myllyoja a & Nina Wessberg a a VTT Technical research Centre of Finland; Itäinen Pitkäkatu 4, 20521, Turku, Finland Published online:
constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 821-841, DOI:
constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland Toni Ahlqvist*,Minna Halonen, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, Johanna Kohl, Raija Koivisto
, Jouko Myllyoja and Ninawessberg VTT Technical research Centre of Finland; Itäinen Pitkäkatu 4, 20521 Turku, Finland This article suggests that,
In this article, we explore the questions of systemic transformations and the building of an anticipaator culture in the context of VTT Technical research Centre of Finland.
whose predominant activities are to proviid research and development, technology, and innovation services to enterprises, governments, and other clients.
We explore the questions of systemic transformations in the context of Finnish RTO, namely VTT Technical research Centre of Finland,
Modularisation allows one to form a tailored‘response chain'to answer different kinds of research and development problems (see, e g.
Our model separates roadmaps with R&d scope and roadmaps with systemic scope. Figure 3 shows an ideal model of roadmap knowledge spaces.
R&d, adoption, etc. Building a technological vision Scoping new enabling technologies or new products Identifying temporal sequences Identifying singular elements,
The first roadmap scope is R&d I, with a perspective of a single technology or object.
The second roadmap scope is R&d II with a perspective of a single organisation or firm.
Roadmap scope Description Process aims Primary use of the roadmap R&d I: R&d perspective on a single technology or object Roadmapping single technologies from a certain perspective Enhancing organisational capacities in a certain technology field Building vision
and associated steps mainly in the technological space Drafting action steps to advance the implementatiio of the technology in question R&d II:
R&d perspective on a single organisation or firm Roadmapping organisattiona capacities in developing new competencies Roadmap for developing organisational/firm capacities Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces
depends on the specific aims of the process Forming practical organisatioona conclusions on the basis of the roadmapping Systemic I:
technology and social/actor space, R&d I scope Our first example is a roadmapping process that is aimed to renew a line of organisational compettenc that is already rather well established at VTT.
Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities The building services roadmap can be perceived as an R&d I type of technology roadmap that is aimed to contribute to the technology space and the social/actor space.
and prioritise emerging service research issues. The second phase of the roadmapping was thematic, and it was carried out in five groups.
and systemic capacities The SSB roadmap can be perceived as an R&d II type of technology roadmap that aims to contribute to the strategy space and the social/actor space.
Furthermore, the project aimed to fortify VTT's brand as a service research organisation by stating the VTT state-of-the-art and vision for the future.
especially in creation of new service knowledge internally at VTT To fortify VTT's brand as a service research organisation by stating the VTT state-of-the-art
The process was realised in 2005 2007 between VTT Technical research Centre of Finlaand FOI (Sweden SINTEF (Norway), and DTI (Denmark.
which was about building an explicit service-oriented R&d trajectory in an engineering-oriented RTO,
His current research focusses on socio-spatial transformations induced by science, technology, and innovation policies. He has published widely in the field of foresight, on topics such as roadmapping, emerging technologies and infrastructures,
Minna Halonen is a research scientist at VTT. Her research focusses on foresight and socio-technical change
Her research interests are especially in future-oriented research in linking ecological and social aspects of sustainability and in social impact assessment.
Her current research interests include, for example, emerging risks and critical infrastructure protection. She holds a position of docent in the University of Oulu.
) is a research scientist atvtt. He has been working in different roadmap processes as a senior facilitator. His other fields of expertise concern
Her current research interests are especially in sustainable energy solutions at the society. She has also been carrying on various roadmap processes.
Research policy 33, nos. 6 7: 897 920. Halonen, M.,K. Kallio, and E. Saari. 2010.
Towards co-creation of service research projects: A method for learning in networks. International Journal of Quality and Service Sciences 2, no. 1: 128 45.
Analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organization. Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21, no 3: 381 405.
Capturing and exploring multiple potential innovation pathways show considerable promise as a way of informing technology management and research policy.
'Anticipating innovation pathways can assist R&d managers as they set priorities, new product managers as they compose development teams,
and national policy-makers as they formulate infrastructures to encourage innovation. 2. Background 2. 1. Tech Mining and FTAS Bibliometrics counting activity levels and identifying patterns in R&d bibliographic records,
(i e. to reach beyond R&d). Here, we go further to apply text mining tools (see www. thevantagepoint. com) to such compilations of research article and patent abstracts.
We search for R&d activity in suitable‘ST&I'databases and profile that activity and the associated actors from these data (Steps C and D). Many analytical tools can serve to profile R&d,
including bibliometric analyses, social netwoor analyses, and trend analyses. We adapt these to facilitate our study as a function of the state of development of NESTS.
Within the context of ongoing empirical analyses of nanotechnology(‘nano')R&d, we focus here on how nanomaterials are being used to enhance the performance of solar cells,
4104 documents (including 3134 articles) appearing in the Science Citation Index (SCI) of WOS (fundamental research emphasis;
with J). Detailing how the solar cells function (Step A is treated only briefly (Appendix 2). DSSC R&d (Step C) profiling outputs are illustrated selectively.
Review of the TDS by several knowledgeable persons helped tune this simple conceptualisation. 4. 2. Profile R&d (Step C) This activity draws heavily on bibliometric
Extracting the organisational entities particularly those publishing R&d articles, those patenting, and those discussed in the business-oriented literature identifies possibly important actors in the DSSC arena.
This suggests that fundamental research on DSSC continues to increase essentially exponentially. The data from both DWPI and Factiva show a small peak in 2005 and suddenly decrease in 2006.
We applied science overlay mapping (Leydesdorff and Rafols 2009) to locate DSSC R&d among the disciplines.
This approach uses the Subject Categories assigned to journals bywos. Accordingly for a set of publications indexed by WOS (in this case, by SCI,
Table 1. Leading DSSC research institutions (showing percentages within these 11 organisations. Cites share Cites share Pubs share Pubs share through 2008 2009 onwards through 2008 2009 onwards(%)CAS 6. 0 19.9 19.5 25.3 Swiss Federal Institute of technology (EPFL) 49.3
an especially useful analytical step is to profile their R&d and business activity in detail. Using Vantagepoint and MS Excel,
Using R&d publication, patents, and business activity compilations, one can enable social network analyses within and among organisations. 4. 4. Determine potential applications (Step E) We introduced a new technique called‘cross-charting'to explore the links from technological attributes (e g. particular nanomaterials or nanostructures and particular technical advances) to functional
with R&d emphases distributed among them. In one stream of exploration, we consider the intersection of advanced dye formulations (to enhance light energy capture)
Alan L. Porter is Director of R&d for Search Technology, Inc.,Norcross, GA. He is also Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering,
R&d Management 40, no. 2: 195 208. Hekkert, M. P.,R. A a. Suurs, S. O. Negro, S. Kuhlmann,
A new tool for research policy and library management. Journal of the American Society for Information science & Technology 61, no. 9: 1871 87.
Main research target Functional objectives Examples Commercialisation First generation Single-crystalline silicon To make use of solar energy To convert solar energy into current Conventional solar cells Now,
strategic prioritization was the basic principle in drawing up related policies except for those related to basic research.
and extensive coverage of key elements including priority research and development, human resource development, social conditions to be improved,
and the region's place in the era of globalization. 3. Integrative study 3. 1 Advantage of combination A good public investment in research and development needs an overall picture of facets of science
Delphi deals with a variety of areas of science, technology and society, and therefore it contains events that are expected to make an implicit contribution
It provides key areas of science and technology for addressing the challenges, looking at things holistically. However neither the relationship among events nor the necessary coordination or cooperation among them is mentioned.
or national challenges goes far beyond the border of research and development in a single discipline, and necessarily involves collaboration across disciplines.
Strategic dialogues for research policy making in Germany Frauke Lohr, Sebastian Hallensleben and Amina Beyer-Kutzner Abstract Purpose The mere generation of foresight results is not sufficient in itself to influence research policy.
Research policy makers need specific information and insight on how the structured view of the future provided by foresight affects their strategic planning.
Therefore, deriving the maximum benefit from foresight activities requires a carefully designed and actively driven transfer process of foresight results into research policy making.
and investigate the relevance of their theoretical foundations to transferring foresight results into research policy making.
Findings Strategic dialogues have proved to be an effective and efficient instrument for achieving the transfer of results from strategic processes such as foresight into research policy making.
Originality/value The transfer of foresight results into research policy making has featured not prominently so far in discussions of foresight efforts and methods.
Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
The success of research policy is dependent on the alignment of a broad range of relevant stakeholders from academia, industry, politics, and society.
Research policy cannot limit itself to the continued support of established activities and trend lines. Rather, it needs to anticipate future opportunities as well as future societal needs.
It is therefore essential to underpin research policy with robust assumptions and a structured view of possible future developments.
and are therefore a crucial element in a responsible allocation of public funds to research efforts in academia and industry.
Research policy makers do not just require the structured view of the future that foresight activities provide
The key challenge is that research policy makers are not a homogeneous group, even within a single institution,
The relevance of a set of foresight results therefore needs to be explored individually for each research policy making unit.
Furthermore, the existing organizational structure in a research policy making institution (such as a government department) reflects earlier priorities
In addition, the integration and implementation of foresight results may also require the creation of new infrastructure for interdisciplinary research.
when research policy making only focuses on defining new research topics. In this paper we demonstrate how existing approaches for transferring foresight results into strategic planning can be applied to research policy making.
We present a seven-step process that is suitable as a generic framework for defining the most appropriate approach to a given situation to support research policy making.
Finally we illustrate the process with three examples from Germany and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research related to transferring results from foresight
and similar strategy processes into research policy making and research infrastructure creation. 2. Lessons from earlier work The challenge of transferring foresight results into strategic planning is well known in a business context.
Specifically with respect to research policy development in Germany, Meister and Oldenburg (2008) argues that both foresight and subsequent transfer activities have to be constructed as dialogue processes involving all relevant stakeholders.
With his summary of the key results of foresight activities in Germany in the early part of the last decade, he also illustrates once more their wide-ranging and interdisciplinary nature and hence the need for an active and carefully designed transfer to research policy making.
Dialogues used for transferring foresight results into research policy development do not fit any of these categories
The overall aim lies in making foresight results as usable and useful as possible in the work of research policy makers and in turning the transfer into an integral part of policy development.
but in this paper we restrict ourselves to their discussion in the context of research policy making.
Table I their relevance to strategic dialogues for transferring the results of foresight activities and similar strategy processes into research policy development. 3. The situation in Germany To support research policy development the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
both during the process of creating consensus views of future developments and during their translation into research policy and the creation of research infrastructure.
strategic dialogues have been employed on multiple levels in the process of research policy development: Firstly, strategic dialogues have helped to overcome the necessarily limited perspective of individual units within an organization such as a federal ministry by connecting units with each other in a loose network where ideas can VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 21
In particular, research policy makers operate in the context of political priorities and guidelines that are set at higher levels of the government institutions they work in.
or through unrelated shifts (e g. change of government after an election) then belief networks of research policy makers can be affected.
and their action in anticipation of potential research policy changes triggered by the dialogue (such as new funding programs) This can be a problem
though, if research policy initiatives do result from the strategic dialogue, stakeholders in industry and academia might be aware and receptive of them
include university departments, scientific networks, non-university research organizations, polytechnics, and academies. Industry stakeholders may be small to medium-sized enterprises as well as global multinational companies, industry associations or research partnerships.
and requirements of stakeholders and research areas there are recurring patterns in the context of research policy making that can be structured in a seven-step framework shown in Figure 1 and described in the following sections. 4. 1 Step 1:
foresight is more radical than day-to-day activities of Figure 1 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 23 research policy makers,
Gaps in previous research and the need for governmental support are being identified from the experts'perspective.
Survey of earlier national research policy Where funding programs are considered as an element of future research policy it is important to gain an overview of previous funding activities in relevant subject areas as well as lessons learnt.
for defining research policy. Therefore, step 7 brings together a small group of experts to develop one
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 25 For the BMBF, a wealth of structured information has been generated that allows formulating a future vision and recommendations for research policy initiatives,
and translation of a joint view of the future into prerequisites and recommendations for a coherent research policy and its implementation through programs and/or dedicated institutional structures. 5. Illustration with recent examples As outlined above,
and demonstrate the power of strategic dialogues as an instrument for a broad range of subject areas in the context of national research policy making.
For the focus area‘‘Produzierenkonsumieren 2. 0''(Production Consumption 2. 0), the strategic dialogue involved seven organizational units within the BMBF drawn from the full range of BMBF departments concerned with research policy.
B generating concrete topics with a need for further research and development and with high potential that have not sufficiently been addressed by governmental support so far;
and is leading to calls for proposals. Key success factors across all examples have included: B a careful selection and engagement of stakeholders considering their potential contribution, their role in developing research policy,
and their commitment to future activities; B consideration of the existing structure of departments within the Ministry as well as known difficulties in initiating activities across departments;
and B compatibility with existing strategic planning activities in individual units within the BMBF. 6. Conclusions Strategic dialogues have proved to be an effective and efficient instrument for achieving the transfer of results from strategic processes such as Foresight into research policy making.
From the perspective of research policy makers, strategic dialogues provide the missing link to transfer the results of foresight and similar strategy processes into research policy making.
and can facilitate the interplay of actors in research as well as research policy. Through our work we have come to the conclusion that a carefully designed transfer of foresight results into research policy making would be beneficial in a wide range of situations, not just in Germany but also within the EU and internationally.
References Bohm D. 1996), On Dialogue, Routledge, New york, NY. Cagnin, C. and Loveridge, D. 2011),‘A business framework for building anticipatory capacity to manage disruptive and transformative change and lead business networks towards sustainable development,
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