In this case, the window on the state of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is provided by a conference held in 2011 in Seville, at the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.
but nevertheless interconnected fabric of how to use the future to address technological research, investment, sectoral and societal choices?
or to account for the actual evolution of industrial research and innovation systems. On the foresight side not only was there considerable confusion and conflict at the level of methods,
and research agendas it is little wonder that at times the foresight community expressed concerns, like in 2004,
and that their processes relate to policy making processes 1. Academic research has explored also this issue, focusing on different characterisations and typologies of foresight projects 2 3. The literature has suggested that foresight must be an integral part of policy-making processes 4,
which focus on priority settings for strategic research. 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.**Corresponding author. Tel.:++45 4525 4535.
'In parallel with the term‘foresight',the term‘future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)' is used by the European commission's Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), for example.
For example, one LME aspect is that major Danish firms finance a large part of their research and development themselves.
This was exposed through a very large research project‘Democracy and Power in Denmark'that was launched by the Danish Parliament shortly before the new millennium 27.
As late as the 1980s, the Danish governmental expenditure on research and development (R&d), relative to the country's gross national product (GNP), was among the lowest of the OECD countries.
Based on the Danish Globalisation Strategy from 2005, public expenditures on R&d have increased. Consequently, today, Denmark is among the OECD countries with the highest public expenditures on R&d.
Another major initiative of the Globalisation Strategy was an increase in the percentage of public research funding that should be subject to competition.
In 2005, two thirds of Danish public research funding was appropriations directly to universities and research centres,
and the goal was to increase the competitive portion from one third in 2005 to one half in 2010.
Funding, especially, is made available for strategic research. A Council for Strategic research has been established to contribute to increased co-operation between public and private research within a range of areas of strategic importance for the country.
In conclusion, historically, Denmark has had a weak tradition of applying foresight and similar systematic, forwardloookin processes in national-level policy making.
this context has changed during recent decades with increased national R&d budgets and the establishment of a strategic research council.
This changing context has created a need for foresight understood to be political priority-setting for strategic research. 3. 2. Danish experiments with technology foresight In a green paper from 1995,
the Danish research Council for Research policy recommended that the Ministry for Science consider utilising futures studies in affiliation with its strategy processes 28.
The project can be done in connection with public investments in technological service and in connection with larger interdisciplinary research groups, for example'.
Research2015 aimed to set priorities for the government's strategic research programme or at least, parts of this programme. 4. 1. The government's Globalisation Strategy In the spring of 2005,
'which aimed to strengthen the basis for the political priorities of funding for strategic research. The intention was not to launch strategic research as a scientific underpinning of political priorities.
Contrariwise the aim was to prioritise strategic research in areas of political interest. The initiative should identify the research needs created by societal and business developments as well P. D. Andersen,
L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 12 as the capability of Danish research institutions to meet these needs.
Every four years, such a process should result in a catalogue of important themes for strategic research.
and it could constitute a common reference framework for the Danish Parliament's political negotiations for the allocation of resources for strategic research.
The first phase involved a broad mapping of the strategic research needs. This mapping was conducted from March to October 2007.
The evaluation found that 64%of all proposals came from the public research and education sector,
The second phase included an analysis of the received material from phase 1. The material was analysed by an independent expert panel that consisted of eight members with the aim of identifying coherent research themes in the received material.
The members of the expert panel were appointed by the Strategic research Council based on nominations from Ministries
or opportunities, be broad enough to ensure effective competition among Danish research environments in the call for proposals for strategic research funding,
The expert panel structured the material into 42 proposals for strategic research themes. The 42 proposals were exposed to a user panel that consisted of some 50 persons from businesses,
and reduced the 42 proposals to 31 proposals for future strategic research themes. The third phase included the completion of the final catalogue.
This phase consisted of dialogue meetings between the expert panel and the Strategic research Council, the Council for Independent Research, Individual Ministries,
In this phase, the number of themes was reduced to 21 (see Box 1). The fourth phase included the implementation of the results as political priorities for strategic research.
During the parliament's budget negotiation in 2008, approximately DKK 1 bn (ca. EUR 134 million) was allocated to strategic research in the two year period of 2009 and 2010.
The catalogue formed a basis for the negotiations leading to distributing that amount between selected themes (see Table 2). Compared with 1. 2 DKK bn, the annual budget of the strategic research council
Compared with total competitive2 part of the Danish governmental R&d expenditures, which amount to approximately DKK 8 9 bn annually,
it formed an improved basis for prioritisation of strategic research, and that basis was used actually to set political priorities for strategic research.
That Research2015's effect on the fiscal act can be verified may be unique in an international context.
What is not clear is how the political priorities for strategic research would have appeared without the Research2015 process. 2 The total governmental R&d expenditures consist of two parts:
a noncompetitive part (such as direct appropriations to universities and institutions) and a competitive part (such as funds distributed by research councils
When during the Research2015 process, the expert group worked to reduce the number of themes for strategic research
such as the Globalisation Strategy's initiatives on political priority setting for strategic research and the allocation of 50%more public funding for research, require a degree of risk taking
food and bio products Intelligent solutions for society Production systems of the future Strategic growth technologies Health and prevention From basic research to individualised treatment Chronic disease between prevention and rehabilitation
Due to the low degree of power distance in Denmark, major societal stakeholders expect to be involved in the development process of national research policy strategies.
The research policy strategies that were agreed upon can be enforced as more legitimate and plausible. In this sense, the networking
Table 2 Implementation in the national budget for strategic research 33. Theme Budgets in millions of DKKS 2009 2010 Energy, climate and environment Energy systems of the future 190 455 Future climate and climate adaptation 43 0 Climate
research centre in Greenland 20 15 Competitive environmental technologies 10 0 Production and technology Bio-resources food and other bio products 45 50 Intelligent solutions for society 0 10 Health and prevention From basic research to individualised treatment 30 20 Human health and safety
in interaction with env. factors 0 19 Innovation and competitiveness 0 10 The public sector of the future 0 15 Knowledge and education What works?
Mapping OECD horizontal scanning Public hearing among all interested citizens Input from ministries 125 trends and challenges 432 suggestions 90 suggestions In principle, everybody interested in strategic research 2:
Identification of themes Expert group analysed the material from phase 1 Workshop with user panel about the 42 themes Expert group revised the 42 themes 42 themes for strategic research Ideas and input for the remainder
of the process Reduction to 31 themes for strategic research Expert group (8 persons) User panel (53 persons) 3:
Final proposal Dialogue with stakeholder organisations, ministries and research councils Reduction to 21 themes for strategic research Strategic research council (14) Independent research council (18) Contacts in ministries (15
Implementation of the Research2015 catalogue in real policy Political negotiations in Parliament, starting with the Fiscal Act of 2009 Most(>75%)of the 21 themes for strategic research were receiving budgets Speakers from the parties
and R&d and marketing integration mechanisms in new product development: a cross-cultural study between Singapore and New zealand, Industrial Marketing Management 36 (2006) 293 307.18 R. K. Moenaert, A. de Meyer, B. J. Clarysse, Cultural
, Cogels Osylei 36,2600 Antwerp, Belgium c Fontys University of Applied sciences, Academy for Creative industries, Tilburg, The netherlands d Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628
we may be able to gain insight into the value added of scenario method 6 7. 2. Research approach 2. 1. Research questions In setting up
We focused on the following research questions at the national and local levels: How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of scenario analysis methods?
These research questions imply a clear focus on policy-making in the public domain (see, for example, 15) and on the perceptions of policy-makers,
In the interviews, we used open questions, to gain a broader understanding of the issues mentioned in the research questions.
and serve as a source of inspiration for new dialogues within the foresight research community. 3 Results The insights from the local
and the national case-studies are structured by the research questions. N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 20 3. 1. How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of the scenario analysis method?
*Totti Ko nno la c adg Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic studies and Management
Examples range from the European commission through the Framework programmes and its Joint research Centre, the OECD through its International Futures Programme, UNIDO through its Technology foresight Initiative, the Asian-Pacific Economic cooperation (APEC) Centre for Technology foresight, the UK Foresight
like any significant international undertaking, calls for clarity, unity, integrity and coherence 3 5. Further design requirements are introduced if the project aims to incorporate international research, innovation systems 6 and the diversity of stakeholders.
The innovation roadmaps 24 highlight the main milestones of innovation activities (i e. research and development, management and policy actions) which are needed to achieve a desired vision.
The aim was to identify relevant research topics and the supporting actions needed to shape the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation in each of,
(i) scientific literature and of (ii) the main areas covered by twenty worldwide existing roadmaps and thirteen ongoing research projects.
All these activities produced a total of 754 research issues to be explored further and refined 25.
Moreover, the first online questionnaire and interviews with key industry actors took into account those research topics already mapped
i) policy and governance,(ii) international Industrial r&d,(iii) knowledge society and (iv) environmental sustainability; 5. Positioning the scenario snapshots within the defined framework.
industries and societies. 3. 3. Roadmaps The final IMS2020 Joint Vision comprise a set of around eighty research topics
The refined research topics were then prioritised in terms of (i) a timeline between 2010 and 2020,(ii) inter-dependencies between research topics (those
which would depend on other research topics), and (iii) interest of different IMS regions to participate into collaborative research projects per research topic.
The latter took place through a second online survey that counted 359 participants. The roadmaps have been adapted for use by the European commission.
These start from the implementation of the identified research topics and supporting actions between 2011 and 2013
i) research topics (RTS in Fig. 4) which act as‘bricks'with short term implementation needed (starting in Fig. 4. IMS2020 roadmaps.
and (ii) actions (RAS in Fig. 4) that are of mid-term implementation (7 10 years), with a wider focus and linked to the research topics,
and select research priorities to be funded in collaboration with the IMS region in this timeline. Results are currently being used to develop further framework programme (FP) 7 calls and in shaping future RI calls from 2014.
However, it may be far more relevant how the whole process created a systemic understanding and a common vision amongst the stakeholders taking part in the exercise.
These are intended to stimulate small and medium enterprises (SMES) to participate in international cooperative research and development (R&d) projects.
(i e. research areas and research topics) that are expected, according to the selected models, to enable the IMS2020 Vision to become a reality.
as research topics were defined based on collaboration needs in the IMS region, it would be a natural activity to move a step further
As a result a number of research topics that would have been difficult to capture otherwise were reshaped
and thus feed both new RI calls within FP7 and future EU calls after 2014.
The second online survey and the wiki platform also enabled different parties to outline RI topics in
Such an approach allowed the consortia to unlock not only global needs for IMS with respect to RI and collaboration.
of which RI topics were more important for certain regions and were expected to have a greater impact in terms of sustainable manufacturing 33 and IMS.
therefore critical for shaping future customised RI calls for project collaboration and appropriate funding mechanisms. 5. Conclusions The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on how future global collaborative research
and innovation (RI) could encourage sustainable manufacturing. It highlighted some of the challenges in organising global foresight exercises.
when the use of such tools is an integral part of the design of the whole exercise a finding that deserves further research in order to advance the field of future studies.
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis and Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.15 T. Ko nno la, V. Brummer, A. Salo
Contributed paper for the 2007 conference on corporate R&d (CONCORD: new and emerging issues in corporate R&d, JRC-IPTS, 8-9/10/07, 2007.25 M. Taish, J. Cassina, B. Cammarino, S. Terzi, N
. Duque, A. Cannata, M. Urgo, M. Garetti, D. Centrone, J. A. Ibarbia, D. Kiritsis, A. Matsoki, A. Rolstadas, B. Moseng, T. Oliveira, M
experiences from the preparation of an international research programme, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495.30 D. White, J. Fortune, Current practice in project management an empirical
Alan L. Porter b c, d, Michael Rader e a European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Brussels, Belgium b R&d for Search Technology, Inc
which is part of the Directorate General Joint research Centre of the European commission. A Technical Committee was supporting the scientific content preparation of the Seminar,
as contribution towards the establishment of common research policy (i e. the so-called European research area (ERA). 3 This contribution refers to a very specific project
and sector (i e. the European forest sector) that aimed to create an international research agenda, based on the recognition of long-termchallenges of this sector and the identification of gaps and opportunities in wood material science and engineering.
and the shaping of new research and technology development networks in European-wide innovation policy coordination. It also describes the major methodological challenges involved in the process.
These depend on strategies requiring coordination of research activities from different research actors, and enabling of interactions with companies in creating
demands for a greater emphasis upon problem-oriented interdisciplinary research; and a continuing reassessment of relationships with the private sector and the innovation-related Knowledge Economy agenda (e g. through third stream activities.
iii) the role of other research actors, and more importantly, the links among universities and those other research players are disregarded often.
In his paper Havas suggests a methodological approach outlining how prospective activities can be conducted on the higher-education sector.
She works at the European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre. Her job is to contribute to the development,
Alan Porter Dr. Porter is Director of R&d for Search Technology, Inc.,Norcross, GA. He is also Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering,
Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of the Research centre Karlsruhe, joined ITAS'forerunner AFAS in 1979 and has worked
Member of the group advising the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the Joint research Centre (IPTS, now European commission, Directorate-General Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies) on the production of the IPTS Report.
, 9000 Ghent, Belgium c PREST/MIOIR, Manchester Inst. of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9pl, UK d National research University
and influenced the increased emphasis on principles such as connectedness, interaction and knowledge sharing in R&d and innovation management.
'In particular, there is a growing recognition of the user as‘innovator'and key stakeholder, especially in the early phases of scientific and technological research,
Previous research on this topic has shown that there is a large gap between the adoption of digital TV and the actual use of its interactive features and applications, i e.,
Secondly, this study was part of a larger research project based on continuous interaction with different types of users (i e.,
From previous research we know that TV is seen still as an accessible and relatively simple to use medium.
Proceedings of Yeditepe International research Conference on Foresight (Yircof 2009), Istanbul, Turkey, 2009.12 O. Saritas, Innovation Foresight and Foresightful Innovation in Europe and beyond, in:
Presentation at Vienna University of Technology, 27,september 2010. 13 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory Innovation a research agenda, in:
in the scientific instrument innovation process, Research policy 5 (1976) 212 239.26 F. Piller, C. Ihl, Open innovation with Customers.
*Cristiano Cagnin b c a Universidade do Vale do Itajai'(UNIVALI), Floriano'polis, Brazil b Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain
of Applied sciences, Academy for Creative industries, The netherlands c Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship, University of Potsdam, August-Bebel-Straße 89,14482 Potsdam, Germany d EICT Gmbh
The cases are a collaboration between government agencies and a research organization and two inter-organizational networks of different size.‘
1 The author gratefully acknowledges the support of the Innovation-Oriented Research program‘Integral Product Creation and Realization (IOP IPCR)' of The netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation.
Indeed, empirical research shows that more and more companies have opened up their innovation processes and started to cooperate with others with regard to innovation 12.
For a long time, internal R&d capabilities were associated closely with innovativeness. In fact, substantial efforts were put into keeping the results of innovation a secret.
mostly in precompeetitiv phases to reduce R&d costs. A preceding concept to open innovation that takes a corporate perspective is absorptive capacity.
and characterize‘networked foresight'as the basis for further research. 3. Methodology 3. 1. Study design For analyzing the link between futures research
and future innovations Challenging the state-of-the-art of current R&d projects 3 See http://www. rijkswaterstaat. nl/water/innovatie en onderzoek/index/for more details about WINN. 4 From Deltares'website (www. deltares. nl):‘
‘‘Deltares is an independent, institute for applied research in the field of water, subsurface and infrastructure''.
zur Fo rderung der angewandten Forschung e. V. Fhg), Technische Universita t Berlin (TUB) and Siemens AG (SAG) decided to pool their research and development activities in the area of information
In practice, the EICT supports collaborative projects in futures research, basic research, applied research, and new product development with expertise in innovation management, project management, and IT infrastructure.
The physical proximity to faculties and local research institutions was supposed to enhance the knowledge exchange between industry
With organizations from basic research (TUB), applied research (Fhg), and industry (DTAG, DAG, Opera), the entire innovation process is covered.
project initiation and execution of R&d projects. To serve as a knowledge platform without complex assignments and layers of bureaucracy between all partners,
Consortia of partners from academia, industry and research institutes were encouraged to create open innovation ecosystems that integrate the knowledge triangle consisting of education
the effectiveness of European public funding, corporate innovativeness, the relevance of academic research, and higher education. 4. 3. 2. Process model In the innovation framework instruments for sharing,
and methods. 4. 3. 4. Leadership In contrast to most other publicly funded research instruments of the European commission,
Activity Short description Type 3. 1 Action lines Bundle R&d activities in preselected thematic fields, aim to bring forward significant improvements
performance and conformance Projects 3. 4 Spearhead Research grants additional research funds to facilitate collaborative research activities in high-potential topics Projects 3. 5 Business modeling Supports
and research institutes Program 3. 7 Innovation radar Identifies new technologies, trends and developments in selected fields, establishes a common outlook on the future of ICT
and business opportunities on a yearly basis and provides the means to explore the field further Program 3. 9 Best-practice benchmarking Collects information about best practices in collaborative R&d,
Joint Technology initiatives (JTIS), the European Alliance for Innovation and the EIT KICS (case 3). Thus, the image of the future for EICT seems to be need in of an update. 8 The partner structure of EICT of a research institute, a university
and IT knowledge and to provide the suitable tools for the early steps of innovation from topic identification to execution of large-scale R&d projects.
and the aim of universities to transfer research results to the market on the other side.
Finally, several instruments provide information to challenge basic assumptions and existing R&d projects, and to scan for disruptions (opponent role of foresight).
When combining the differences in networked foresight with further research on collaboration in innovation at least two known‘process archetypes of open innovation'are observable in the cases:
results of a quantitative benchmarking study, R&d Management 37 (2007) 383 397.5 R. Rohrbeck, H. Gemu nden, Corporate foresight:
the case of Procter & gamble, R&d Management 36 (2006) 333 346.8 R. Rohrbeck, K. Ho lzle, H. G. Gemu nden, Opening up for competitive advantage how Deutsche telekom
creates an open innovation ecosystem, R&d Management 39 (2009) 420 430.9 O. Gassmann, Opening up the innovation process:
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J. Niosi, Fourth generation R&d, Journal of Business research 45 (1999) 100 117.15 R. J. Ortt
of foresight appears to be need in of further research:‘‘‘‘consolidation of opinions''and‘‘identification of new business models''appear to initiate new activities instead of altering strategy.
R&d Management Conference (RADMA), Lisboan, Portugal, 2004.41 C. Jasner, Walk of pain, Mckinsey Wissen 17 (2006) 44 49.42 W. G. Dyer
Dr Jennifer Cassingena Harper is the director of policy within the Malta Council for Science and Technology with responsibility for national research and innovation strategy and foresight.
She represents Malta at EU level on the Joint research Centre Board of Governors, the Euro-Mediterranean Monitoring Committee for Research and Technology development and the Framework programme 7, Regions Programme Committee.
and environmental challenges and in addressing the potential of emerging areas of science and technology in an integrated way.
debate and research agenda setting by revealing new angles and relatioons knowledge gaps and potential hazardous or promising developments Characteristics of government horizon scanning An analysis of different horizon scanning exerciise and descriptions highlights the following characteristics:
The NISTEP exercise combines this broad-scope foresight with a thorough analysis of strengths and weaknesses of Japanese research and development (R&d
Well-known examples include the Internaationa Council for Science (2002) exercise that focused on societal issues and research agenda settiin and also its foresight analysis (International council for science, 2004.
which need to be incorporated in our deliberations to develop robust (resilient and adaptive) shared strategies incluudin joint research programmes.
Medicine Table 1 Main categories used in the different scans Categories Netherlands UK Denmark Social context Society (including public services) Culture Work life People R&d
meaning they may play a useful role in informing research agenda settiing In the case of The netherlands and the UK,
In Denmark, the scan issues were used as input for the selection of prioritised research themes in a four-year cycle of research funding (see Figure 3). The scan data were used alongside the outcome of a public internet‘hearing'process that delivered an additional input
2 8 7 R&d agenda Policy agenda 5. Coupling of opportunities and problems through creative sessions and consultations 10.
The final proposal Dialogue with involved parties from research and society Final research themes RESEARCH2015 catalogue Figure 3. Design of the Danish OECD DAST horizon scan Source:
COS was the umbrella organisation of the so-called sector councils for R&d that were established by Dutch law during the 1980s to provide strategic knowledge questions for departmental policies in a number of policy domains (environment, agriculture, health,
cultural and social respeects The horizon scan was mandated by the Danish parliament in 2006 to feed directly into the research agenda setting.
Since this research agenda setting has a long cyclic character it has not yet been announced when another round will be organised.
For the OECD DASTI horizon scan it was clear from the beginning that the results of the scan would be used as an important input for the process of priorittisin new research themes for the Danish fouryeea cycle of the research funding councils
which is acknowledged in the research 2015 document (Daniis Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, 2008) that sets the stage for research prioritisation in Denmark for the coming four years in a clear relationnshi to the challenges facing
and prioritising of research by the National Funding Agency (see Netherlands Organizzatio for Scientific research, 2006).
but also that the shared scan data provide a common basis for further joint foresight to develop joint research programs and even policies.
which can be used for different purposes such as R&d agenda setting and the development of more resilient policies.
and research teams to think more broadly openly and strategically, it would now be helpful to establish clearer guidelines for their application,
or a research funding scheme (as in Denmark) or to identify new crosscutting questions that need further forwardloookin attention with other methods and transdiscipliinar approaches (clusters of issues, as in The netherlands).
while in Denmark it was a single exercise that may be repeated in the next planning cycle for the research agenda.
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