Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010051-11 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 51 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 52 Indeed,
although‘the consumer'has always been important, the rationale of involving the user has changed drastically.
Since October 2007, he has worked for IBBT-INTEC as a postdoctoral fellow (FWO-V Research Foundation, Flanders.
Luc Martens received an MSC in electrical engineering and a Phd from Ghent University in July 1986 and December 1990, respectively.
From September 1986 to December 1990, he was a research assistant at INTEC, Ghent Universiity Since January 1991,
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 53 of the diffusion theory has to do with its proinnovvatio bias and the assumed linearity of the innovaatio and adoption process.
and at a more latent level that are quite difficult to grasp User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 54 narrow and technology-centric scope of many projects.
i-City's User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 55 large-scale living lab was the main research location.
evaluation Figure 1. Schematic overview of the three research phases User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 56 activities and finds it difficult to identify with the life
and Public policy February 2010 57 the use of mobile applications to support their existiin products and services.
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 58 disregarded, this choice illustrates that decisions are made sometimes at the expense of the user-centred rationale.
54/5 Tourist information (Tourist cluster) 3. 87/5 Mobile help for studies (and Work study cluster) 3, 43/5 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February
Q2, Q5 and Q6 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 60 Conclusion In this paper, we have focused on the shift from traditiiona technology push to more user-oriented and user
Paper presented at European Communicatiion Policy Research Conference (Eurocpr), held 31 march 1 april 2008, Seville, Spain.
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User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 61 Latour B 1993. We Have Never Been Modern.
>last accessed March 2007. Schumacher, J and V-p Niitamo (eds. 2008. European Living Labs. A New approach for Human Centric Regional Innovatiion WVB, Berlin.
Proceedings of the International Symposium on a World of Wireless, Mobile and Multimedia Networks (WOWMOM. 2006.61), held 26 29 june 2006, Niagara-falls, Buffalo-NY, USA.
Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010063-16 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 63 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 64 avoids the functional form restrictions implicit in running a regression of some type.
Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 65 consensus not only among political actors but also among organizations representing business interests.
To the best of our knowledge, it is unique in Europe as a main promotional policy Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 66 either matching approaches (as in this paper) or selecctio
+-positive (negative) and statistically significant effect at 10%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 67 find a positive policy effect but in some cases
The CTI database contained information on 634 subsiddize R&d projects that were finished between 1 january 2000 and 31 december 2002.
firms that had ceased to exist by December 2003 were also remoove from the sample. The final sample contained 307 subsidized firms.
%Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 68 significantly lower than the respective share of projeect of these scientific fields.
CTI database, authors'calculations Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 69 firms which are subsidized not out
G g a-=0 N a Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 70 (6) where and is the kernel7 at the point In a fifth step,
5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 71 innovation performance than non-subsidized firms (at the 5%test level.
5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 72‘low-subsidy'firms from that of the respective groups of non-subsidized firms.
Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 73 Appendix Table A1.
Italian (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 74appendix (continued) Table A3.
*See footnotes to Table A3 for key (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 75 Appendix (continued) Table A5.
*See footnotes to Table A3 for key (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 76 Appendix (continued) Table A7.
and Public policy February 2010 77 Notes 1. See Bozeman (2000); Georghiou and Roessner (2000; and Feller (2007) for recent reviews of the central issues related to the evaluation of the effectiveness of technology programmes.
and Public policy February 2010 78 3. The questionnaire may be obtained from the authors. It is available in German,
Matched-pair analysis based on business survey data to evaluate the policy of supporting the adoption of advannce manufacturing technologies by Swiss firms, KOF Working Paper No. 65, July 2002.
Mark. boden@ec. europa. eu. The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) held in May 2011, focussed on the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in global and national structures
Shaping and Driving Structural and Systematic Transformations organised by the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre (JRC-IPTS) was held in May 2011.
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The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 139
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy Claudio Chauke Nehme1, 2,,
which a good communication approach may help make the difference between good and bad final results.
10.1093/scipol/scs015 Advance Access published on 16 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.
However, attempting to understand how the future may unfold and dealing with the notion of‘possible futures'(Jouvenel 1967),
methods and tools that may fit the needs of the exercise better, to be mobilized. Participatory management structures are recommended highly to allow for‘on the fly'decisions to be made once the exercise starts.
FINEP's strategic management plan was developed in 17 months, in an intense and challenging process of looking into the future of the agency and its role in the national ST&I system.
Developing Organisational Foresight in the Knowledge Economy, held Glasgow, Scotland, 11 3 july 2002. Cuhls, K. and Grupp, H. 2001)‘ Alemanha:
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1. 2 Analytical assumptions On the basis of this discussion, we argue that research priority-setting may take the following (not mutually exclussive directions:
The latest MLP was presented in February 2006 and lasts until 2020. It proposed guidelines which are expressed in 16 Chinese characters:
China Science and Technology indicators (2008) and from<http://www. sts. org. cn>accessed 20 may 2011.264.
‘Over 10 billion Yuan to be invested in 211 Project',26 march 2008). 6 3. 4 Diffusion The‘Torch'and‘Spark'Programs are clear-cut examples of diffusion-oriented measures,
‘Over 10 billion Yuan to be invested in 211 Project'26 march 2008). 7 Similarly, the purpose of the 985 Program, established in 1998,
In March 1986 Deng xiaoping personally approved the drafting of a National High-tech R&d Program, the 863 Program.
From April through September of 1986, the State Council mobilized hundreds of experts to draft an Outline for Development Of high Technology
which was issued on 18 november by the CCPCC and the State Council. The creation of the 973 Program, intended to strengthen basic research,
is considered widely to have been the response by then-Premier Li peng to concerns voiced by scientists at the Political Consultation Conference (zhengxie) in March 1997 that basic research was being neglected in S&t funding.
In June 2003,20 key S&t issues were identified and studies were commissioned. The process surrounding the strategic studies was open (except for the national defense issue.
In addition to the domestic process, workshops were held with international experts at the Multi-S&t Minister Forum in Shenzhen in October 2003,
and an‘International Forum for MLP making'was organized in November 2003 in Beijing. In April 2004, the interim strategic research reports were sent to CAS, CAE,
and the Chinese Academy of Social sciences for consultation. The final results were presented then to Premier Wen Jiabao.
and may continue to thwart the ambitiion of Chinese scientists to develop a more genuinely pluralist system of resource allocation.
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but may also change differently over time. Secondly, different NSTISS may adopt the same knowleedg base to develop different products
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Changes in soft institutions are likely to be particularly critical in determining progress in finding viable paths towards tackling grand challenges and any consequent change in paradigms that these may entail.
The identification of grand challenges and the corresponding priorities for research and innovation through the use of forward-looking activities is mentioned explicitly in the Council's conclusions (December 2009) 7 on guidance on future priorities for European research.
the notion of‘function'is provided useful its heuristic value is stressed. 2. COM (2010) 2020, Brussels, 3 march 2010.3. COM (2010) 546 final, Brussels, 6 october 2010.4.
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transformaation may emerge through proactive coordination that may lead to changes in competition and integration modes of governance.
but also possible disruptive events or developments that may radicalll influence the future. This trend reflects growing attentiio to uncertainties and complexities,
First, the traditional and best established forms of FTA focus on the anticipation of rather gradual change that may require adjustments of how innovation systems are wired up'and what thematic,
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Coping with a fast-changing world. 165
Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'Michael Keenan1,,*Paul Cutler2, 3, John Marks4, Richard Meylan2, 5, Carthage Smith2 and Emilia Koivisto2, 6 1directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, OECD,
and Review (CSPR) and was started in October 2009. The sub-sections that follow begin with a discussion of the considerations
Given available resources and the scope of the exercise, it was thought at the outset that the exercise would take about 12 8 months to complete from start to finish.
Phase 1 october 2009 to April 2010: Gather perspectiive on the key drivers influencing international science in the next 20 years (from individuals in ICSU's membership, bodies,
Phase 2 april 2010 to March 2011: Build exploratory scenarios from the key drivers and conduct a broad consultation with the same range of parties identified for the previous phase..
Phase 3 march 2011 to February 2012: Use the key drivers and exploratory scenarios to develop and validate a visionary‘success scenario'of where ICSU should be Going in the process,
A two-day scenario workshop involving the Task Team was held in April 2010 in order to sharpen the forecasts
The places where science research will take place may change. Universities are presently key players but consortia of researchers,
and over the course of the months following the April 2010 workshop, the exploratoor scenarios were redrafted several times.
The CSPR played an important role in further sharpening the scenarrio at its September 2010 meeting, after
The exercise and its results were debated extensively at ICSU's General assembly in September 2011, a gathering of the ICSU‘family'of member organisations that occurs every three years.
Science Forum in Budapest in November 2011) the explorrator scenarios were picked quickly up and featured in an article in Nature (Macilwain 2011).
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In 2007 ESF evaluated the experiences with Forward Looks (Van der meulen 2007. Though the Forward Looks focus on science agendas,
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'paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain, 12 may 2011.
Macilwain, C. 2011)‘ Science's attitudes must reflect a world in crisis',Nature, 479: 447,24 November 2011.
10.1093/scipol/scs016 Advance Access published on 16 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.
and of research infrastructure planning with these programmmes The participation of the actors in research systems in a foresight process may also promote transparennc
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JTIS make use of Framework Prograamm 7 support services such as the IPR Helpdesk(<www. ipr-helpdesk. org>accessed 15 march 2012)
and the Finance Helpdesk(<www. finance-helpdesk. org>accessed 15 march 2012). 14. External evaluation of the EIT (External Evaluation 2011.
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Van Rij 2010a, 2010b) Horizon scanning may also take place in specific policy domains (Botterhuis et al. 2010.
Thus, one may end up with different sets of individual observations that could be related to each other under certain headings such as:
These elements give clues for further scanning of signals that may support or deny the possibility that the story will occur (the signals are known as secondary signals).
that may confirm or oppose the selected storylines. If the seconddar signals have manifested themselves in the period before the scanning was done,
and attracts a lot of policy attention the issue may suddenly head in a completely undirected way because of the occurreenc of wild cards or countervailing issues.
This may particularly be the case with issues which include controversies or require coordination and collaboration across different and segmennte policies In the cases where conflicts may arise even small investments in examining the issues may be blocked.
Overall, potential wild cards and emerging issues, including their early warning signals, have to fight for attention in the political discourse except for situations in which they fit
which occurred in Japan in March 2011.4. Evaluation of scanning approaches and methods The evaluation of the different approaches and methods faces several challenges.
and assess early warning signals that may indicate potential emerging issues from of a variety of media and sources.
or alternative/contradictory descriptions that may lead to combined or meta descriptions Connections and clustering is made as reported in survey responses, literature and based on reviewers'expertise.
Notes 1. See<http://www. bis. gov. uk/foresight/our-work/horizonscanning-centre>accessed 21 december 2011.2.
See<http://app. hsc. gov. sg/public/www/home. aspx>accessed 8 september 2011.3. See<http://sesti. info/>accessed 8 september 2011.4.
No use was made from more advanced tools as web-crawler or spyware. 5. See<http//news google. com/news/advanced news search?
pz=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en>accessed 21 december 2011.6. See<http://www. google. com/insights/search/>accessed 21 december 2011.7.
See<http://www. bing. com/>accessed 21 december 2011.8. See<http://twitter. com/>accessed 21 december 2011.9.
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