Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 22 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 28 november 2012 To estimate the future development of one technology
State-of-the-art and new approaches Tessaleno C. Devezas Technological forecasting and Innovation theory Working group, University of Beira Interior, Covilha, Portugal Received 13 may 2004;
accepted 6 october 2004 Abstract It is well known the fact that the world of technology is full of biological metaphors,
On the Internet, a Google search yields the following results (April 2004) 2, 800,000 hits for globalization, 6, 600,000 for complexity,
They claim to have reproduced din silicot 15 previously patented inventions in the field of electronics (6 of them patented after January 2000)
2003 May) 50 59.31 R. V. Sole',et al. Selection, tinkering, and emergence in complex networks, SFI-Working Paper 02-07-029,2002. 32 S. Wolfram, A New Kind of Science, Wolfram Media, Inc.,2002.33 J. Goldenberg
2003 February) 52 59.40 T. Devezas, G. Modelski, Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling, Simulating and Forecasting Social Change, a Proposal of a Seminar to the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation,
to be held in Laxenburg (IIASA), April 2006 (http://www. tfit-wg. ubi. pt/globalization). Tessaleno Devezas is Associate professor with Habilitation in the Faculty of engineering, University of Beira Interior (UBI), P-6200-001 Covilha,
Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 2 july 2012 Accepted 27 august 2012 Available online 8 november 2012 Developing strategies,
Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 12 july 2012 Accepted 27 august 2012 Available online 29 october 2012 Exploratory Modeling
and even some base metals such as copper 19 22 and lead 23 may in a few decades become more difficult and expensive to mine and process,
Received 4 july 2011 Received in revised form 24 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 11 november 2012 In recent years, accelerated by the economic and financial crisis,
followed by an open scientific conference in July 2007. The main research questions were: What methodological issues are salient in relation to the identification of emerging trends and change?
12 & 13,may 2011, May 13 2011.71 O. Saritas, J. Aylen, Using scenarios for roadmapping: the case of clean production, Technol.
Paper Presented at the Future seminar of the Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, 7th of June, 2007, in:
June 7th 2007.78 A. Stirling, A general framework for analysing diversity in science, technology and society, J. R. Soc.
Received 24 july 2011 Received in revised form 7 july 2012 Accepted 3 august 2012 Available online 2 november 2012 This paper analyzes the role that different types of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
The NNI was announced a few months later. 5 In hindsight, the technology assessment activities and the vision building process served to link disperse organizations
Received 14 may 2011 Revised 25 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 2 november 2012 The paper aims to contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations.
ISPIM conference Hamburg, 17 20th of June 2011, Lift conference Marseilles 2/3 july 2011 (INFU workshop), FTA conference Sevilla 2011,
and R&d Management Conference Manchester 2nd of June 2010 (INFU workshop). 465 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 References 1 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C
Rev. 78 (September October 1999) 129 141.12 I. Miles, Innovation In services, Oxford university Press, New york, 2005.13 G. Mulgan, R. Ali, R. Halkett
Received 25 june 2012 Accepted 17 august 2012 Available online 3 november 2012 Drawing upon the presentations made at the fourth conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,
T. Konnola, P. Warnke, R. Barré, S. Kuhlmann, Tailoring foresight to field specificities, Futures 43 (April 3 2011) 232 242.14 M. Weber
and monitoring of complex dynamic systems and may enable organizations to use long-term visions to effectively link strategy and operations across the whole value chain.
philine. warnke@ait. ac. at Available online 21 january 2014 Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 4
Available online 22 january 2014 Keywords: Foresight Governance National culture Policy making A b s T R A c T This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes.
but more willing to implement bold new policies that may result from a foresight exercise. The second implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to the meaning of time
Following the general elections and the change of Government in November 2001, the ministries were reorganised,
''which the reelected government presented after the general election in February 2005. The government established an internal Committee of Ministers and a broad-based Council for Globalisation,
From April 2005 to April 2006, the Globalisation Council held 15 meetings. The meetings typically lasted for two days, from lunch to lunch.
In light of the Globalisation Council's work, in April 2006, the government presented an overall strategy for Denmark in the global economy:‘
which was initiated by a passage in the Parliament in November 2006 as part of the national budget negotiations for 2007.
The catalogue that resulted from Research2015 was presented in May 2008. The task of coining out the priorities that was identified in the catalogue was given to the Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovation (DASTI.
This mapping was conducted from March to October 2007. The mapping consisted of three parts. On behalf of DASTI, the OECD's International Futures Programme Unit carried out an international horizon scan,
Acknowledgements An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 12 13 may 2011, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville, Spain.
Kickoff Conference of the European foresight Platform EFP, 14/15 June, Vienna, 2010, Available: http://www. foresight-platform. eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Key-messages-EFP-Conference-FINAL3-100623. pdf (accessed 20.12.11)( Online.
impacts and implications on policy-making, Futures 43 (April 3))(2011) 252 264.3 A. Havas, D. Schartinger, M. Weber, The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making:
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navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (May 4))(2008) 462 482.6 O. Saritas, Systemic foresight methodology, in:
the case of Luxembourg, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 november (8))(2009) 933 951.10 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,
(January)( 1984) 81 99.20 G. Hofstede, Culture's Consequences: International Differences in Work-related Values, Sage, Beverly hills, CA, 1980.21 M. Minkov, G. Hofstede, The evolution of Hofstede's doctrine, Cross Cultural Management:
new perspectives, Asia Pacific Business Review 16 october (4))(2010) 493 504.23 P. A. Hall, D. Soskice, Varieties of Capitalism:
Available online 21 january 2014 Keywords: Foresight Users Policy Scenarios Dutch government Local National A b s T R A c T In this paper, we discuss the opinions
The same may apply to the level of embedding with regard to the organisation and the organisational culture;
Available online 12 february 2014 Keywords: Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,
During a period of a month and a half a number of online tools were used for this process.
in order to closely involve partners during a period of almost two months. Flexibility was critical to build ownership of results
even if the process as a whole may then exhibit more inertia. By considering the above features in the design phase it is easier to manage the process according to plan.
Milano, March 2010.26 C. Cagnin, Scenarios Snapshots and IMS2020 Vision. Deliverable D2. 2. of IMS2020, Project Number 233469,2009. 27 A. Rolstadas, IMS2020 roadmap for sustainable manufacturing research, in:
Proceedings from the IMS2020 Summer School o Sustainable Manufacturing, 26 28 may 2010, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 2010.28 E. Dall, C. Cagnin, Regional foresight a case
Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe Institute of technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Received 29 february 2008 Introduction The contributions included in this special issue build on material presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
) 1 that took place on the 28th and 29th of September 2006. The Seminar was sponsored
and the next conference is scheduled for the 16 17 october 2008 in Seville. This biannual event is becoming a reference within the FTA COMMUNITIES to increase understanding of the advances occurring in the field of FTA for academics
, O. S. Bragstads Plass 2a, 7491 Trondheim, Norway b iminds-MICT, Department of Communication Sciences, Ghent University, Korte Meer 7-9-11
Available online 21 january 2014 Keywords: Innovation Foresight User involvement User practices Future TV experiences Interaction A b s T R A c T This paper discusses the need for a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes
and may help developers and innovators to not be biased technologically. In total, 11 (Lead) users matching the six distinct persona profiles were recruited for further qualitative exploration. 3 These 11 users participated in creative and imaginative home sessions in
Available online 30 january 2014 Keywords: Performance measurement systems FTA Strategy Implementation A b s T R A c T Despite the growing number of publications on firms'performance measurement systems (PMS), consensus
41 (2000) 29 40.3 A. Raps, Implementing strategy, Strategic Finance June (2004) 49 54.4 H. Mintzberg, The fall and rise of strategic planning, Harvard Business Review
of Applied sciences, Academy for Creative industries, The netherlands c Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship, University of Potsdam, August-Bebel-Straße 89,14482 Potsdam, Germany d EICT Gmbh
Available online 24 january 2014 Keywords: Innovation networks Futures research Foresight Networked foresight Open innovation A b s T R A c T Along with the rise of the now popular‘open'paradigm in innovation management,
and by an awareness of external developments that may influence the organization's future goals and performance. 2. A process model that guides the organization toward the envisioned future. 3. The ongoing innovation processes together constitute a transition path that leads the organization from the present to the future. 4. The inner component leadership
They were supposed to be fully operational by October 2010. The EIT governing board developed an overarching Strategic Table 4 Networked foresight activities at the EICT Gmbh.
Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010003-04 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 3 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
This special section is selected based on papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain,
The papers that form this special section were selected from those presented at the Third Internatiiona Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis held 16 17 october 2008 in Seville, Spain.
Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 4 anticipate and shape future technological developmennts mainly, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment.
trend impact analysis Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 5 Six functions of FTA for policy-making are:
**Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 6 scans in the UK, The netherlands and Denmark, as developed in the ERA NET Forsociety Project.
Paper presented at Third International Seville Conferennc on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008, Seville, Spain.
Paper presennte at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain
Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010007-12 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 7 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
These may take place in the immediate business (or transacttion environment, but may also be broader social or regulatory trends.
There are many descriptions and definitions of horizon scanning in use. Here we give one based on definitions used in different horizon scanning prograamme in the UK and The netherlands.
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisiionmaking, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 8 Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats,
opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizzo scanning may explore novel and unexpected issuues as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals.
and Public policy February 2010 9 horizon scans can be narrower in scope (only looking for new technologies),
Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 10 Joining up the data To compare the data of the different scans
administrative and legal Public services Politics State Global Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 11 first discussion with this network was held
in March 2007 and a second in October 2007. The possible use of the horizon scan data at the European commission (EC) level was discussed in interviews with representattive of different directorates within the EC.
and Public policy February 2010 12 discussions with representatives from different ministrries The primary data for The netherlands scan were collected by the COS Horizon scanning team
Review phase Delivery phase Research phase OST Horizon scanning Centre Figure 1. Schematic design of UK horizon scan Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February
Morton Wied Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 14 responsible, whatever its political constitution. Issuue were selected on the basis of indications in the literature of either positive and/or negative impact on these values.
The report contained recommendations for Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 15 specific foresight activities which still have to be executed.
and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.
and evoking important questiion around the future than in providing clear-cut Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 17 answers (Medina Vasquez, 2006).
>last accessed 1 june 2009.2. This exercise was executed by a team of representatives from: the Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovatiio (DASTI), the UK Horizon scanning Centre, the Commisssi van Overleg Sectorraden voor Onderzoek en Ontwikkeling (COS), the Malta Council
Available at<http://www. horizonscanning. gov. au/>,last accessed 1 june 2009.5. Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health, Environnmenta Scanning Service.
Available at<http://www. cadth. ca/index. php/en/hta/programs/horizonscanning>,last accessed 1 february 2010.6. UK HSC.
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<http://www. sigmascan. org/Live/>,last accessed 1 february 2010.8. Netherlands Horizon scan. Available at<http://www. horizonscan. nl/>,last accessed 1 june 2009.9.
Creative system disruption: towards a research strategy beyoon Lisbon, Key technologies Expert Group. Available at<ftp://ftp. cordis. europa. eu/pub/foresight/docs/keytechnoologiesreport. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
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Available at<http://www. deltascan. org/>,last accessed 1 june 2009.13. It should be clear these categories are not entirely distinct.
Many issues could still be placed under two and sometimes more categories. 14. It should be clear that the pursuit of all these values may creaat tensions
/>last accessed 1 february 2010.16. See<http://www. sesti. info/sesti/en/consortium-info>,last accessse 1 february 2010.17.
See threats number 67 and 65 on page 101/102 of the Netherlland Horizon scan report (In't Veld et al.
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Evaluation, Impact and Learning, Anchor paper Theme 2. Paper presented at Second joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 18 International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. Cassingena Harper, J 2006.
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Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010019-12 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 19 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 20 with the creative environment in which content activiitie unfold that make the creative content sector a fertile ground for radical innovations or disruptions
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 21 elements and showing how the implementation of those elements in combination enables us to disentanngl the complexity of the disruptive forces influenccin a sector
adapted from Wiesand and Söndermann (2005) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 22 a mass audience.
experts) Workshop (stakeholders) Workshop (restricted, client) Impact assessment Figure 2. Overview of methodology building blocks Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010
and building trust and awareness are part Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 24 of the equation.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 25 and related variants, uncertain issues, potential disrupttion and the likelihood of possible identified trends/issues.
111 experts with a focus on creative content to participate in the Delphi survey that ran during June 2007.
and Public policy February 2010 26 remain crucial for the future success of the creative content sector.
It started with a general brainstorming on global trends and other socioeconomic considerations that may characterise the context in
and Public policy February 2010 27 promises associated with user created content, sociia software and Web 2. 0 are realised.
and may therefore requuir policy measures or could at least have policy implications. In order to reach our objective we made use of another workshop,
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 28 Step 5: Policy analysis Our adaptive foresight on the creative content industrrie was concluded with a policy analysis,
2008) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 29 mediating between skills and demand for skills.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 30 With regard to the impact assessment aspect of the methodology
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisionmakking held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. References Aho Expert Group 2006.
EPIS Deliveerabl 2. 3. 1. Available at<http://epis. jrc. ec. europa. eu/>,last accessed 28 january 2010.
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Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010031-10 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 31 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisiionmaking, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. At the time of writing, Jack E Smith was Senior Advisor Federal Foresiigh and Innovation strategy, Defence R&d Canada.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 32 Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
>last accessed 3 february 2010 Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 34 been a serious attempt to understand its effects in aggregate.
In particular, foresight has not been evaluated as an instrument of science and innovation policy. Thus the real effect of foresight on priorities may be difficult to determine.
and practical implementation Involvement of political actors in the process Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 35 asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations,
synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;
and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:
the foresiigh capacity and stakeholder organizations need Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 38 to be linked with
Canada's foresight progrram based in the National science Advisor's (NSA) Office was disbanded in March 2008
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 39 Compared to most of the other nations represennte in our study,
and Public policy February 2010 40 is done not, then the exercise is of minimal or no value.
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In February 2015, a family arrives in Miami, Florida from tropical Latin america. A little girl was infected with an unknown strain of malaria.
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