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28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Harro van Lente (2012) Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations:
8 september 2012,769 782 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of expectations Harro van Lente*Department of Innovation studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, The netherlands Foresight can be described as the articulation of possible futures.
http://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 770 H. van Lente out.
the daily production of research and innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 771 Table 1. Functions of foresight for policy-making.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 772 H. van Lente Technological roadmaps basically are creative connections between expected developments in technological skills, sequences of products and potential future
And the modalities may range from taken Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 773 for granted statements that do not meet any resistance,
Gordon Moore, the director of Fairchild Semiconductor in the USA predicted in 1965 that the complexity of integrated memory chip would double every 18 months.
While the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 774 H. van Lente current performance of a technology
when potential customers believe that, within the next few months, an improved version is going to be available,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 775 3. 3. Expectations
but lack insight into the details that may hinder the realisation. For them, the possibilities appear as facts.
more data Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 776 H. van Lente and more developments (Konrad 2006.
www. gartner. com. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 777‘niche'has been introduced to denote this protection (Vergragt 1988) and traces back to the evolutionary metaphor
we were taught to treat hydrogen with respect'(Financial times, September 27, 2003, cited in Eames et al. 2006).
by Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 778 H. van Lente Table 3. Lessons of the sociology of expectations for Foresight objectives of foresight Lessons of sociology of expectations Expectations are drawn from repertoires Expectations
‘excessive prioritizing may decrease the diversity of options that challenge conventional approaches and dominant designs'.
This may support the emergence of competing coalitions. Such countervaailin strategy, again, is weakened by the dynamics of expectation,
thus, are not to be seen as descriptive statements that may or may not be true. Once they are voiced
where companies Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 779
This involves studies of technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 780 H. van Lente assessment, foresight, intermediary organisations, politics of knowledge production and philosophy of technology.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 781 Hellsten, I. 2002.
Lockheed-martin JS01 (June: 4 6. Jacobsson, S, . and A. Johnson. 2000. The diffusion of renewable energy technology:
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 782 H. van Lente Van Lente, H,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014
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28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Riccardo Vecchiato (2012) Strategic foresight: matching environmental uncertainty, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 783-796, DOI:
8 september 2012,783 796 Strategic foresight: matching environmental uncertainty Riccardo Vecchiato*Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy This paper explores how strategic decision-makers select
://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 784 R. Vecchiato Schneider 2008;
Environmental uncertainty and strategic foresight Conceptualisation of environmental uncertainty Early conceptualisations of uncertainty go back to pioneering management scholars such as Knight (1921) and March and Simon (1958),
when managers lack accurate information Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 785 about organisations, activities,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 786 R. Vecchiato Prominent scholars supported the idea that the best way to handle an uncertain future is to ignore it
ICT Mid-1990s Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 787 The unit of analysis was twofold.
and considerable cyclicality Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 788 R. Vecchiato
(and divestment) decisions for Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 789 expanding
Within Philips Design, the‘Trends and Strategy'team has been devoted to the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 790 R. Vecchiato investigation of three axes‘Society'‘
it is allocated to the‘Siemens Technology Accelerator'(part of the Corporate Technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 791 division),
and the consumer electronics and ICT businesses, on the other hand, are suited well to illustrate what types of uncertainty a firm may face in its external environment
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 792 R. Vecchiato On the other hand, drivers of change in the consumer electronics business of Philips (or the broader ICT business in the case of Siemens) affected the identity of the main components of the micro environment itself and thus brought about‘boundary'uncertainty.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 793 On the other hand as they were facing discontinuous drivers of change,
and‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and we thus improve our understanding of the different kinds of uncertainty a firm may face in its business environment.
That might Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 794 R. Vecchiato be the case in the medium/long-term future of the automotive industry itself,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 795 Notes on contributor Riccardo Vecchiato is Assistant professor at the Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering of Politecnico di Milano
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 796 R. Vecchiato Mendonça, S m. P. Cunha, J. Kaivo-oja,
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28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Cristiano Cagnin & Denis Loveridge (2012) A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 797-820, DOI:
Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www. tandfonline. com/page/termsanndconditions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 Technology analysis & Strategic management Vol. 24
8 september 2012,797 820 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnina, b*and Denis Loveridgec adg Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological
://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 798 C. Cagnin
to Be downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 799 represented by a triple-bottom-line balance or the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within the network.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 800 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 1. Existing tools and their relation to the PDCA cycle.
they need to be integrated to be considered as‘primary'for the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
These are assumed to be critical to a business's sustainable Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 802 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge development,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 803 The development of effective and lasting partnerships is critical,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 804 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 2. Contributions of FTA.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 805 Foresight cannot remove the uncertainties any business faces
Foresight can also expose a range of equally likely paths into the future that may permit more insightful decisions to be made by a business.
and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 806 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 3. Business sustainability maturity model.
inter-group learning-Values (universal principles) embedded in every process Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
and rational analysis become complementary (Continued) Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 808 C. Cagnin
functional silos removed (information flow)- Systemic processes/systems Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
The stronger the interactions between the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 810 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge components of the network,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 811 Table 4. Business sustainability management framework. s e i t i v i t C a-b U s s e i t
and preparing the whole network to walk into a higher sustainability maturity level 5th Maturity Level Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 812 C. Cagnin
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Appendix 1. Research overall strategy Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 816 C. Cagnin
and D. Loveridge Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
EM Operations Measure Performance GRI GRI GRI Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 818 C. Cagnin
whom and how Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 820 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Appendix 5. Management framework in context Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014
Evaluation of Laboratory directed research and development investment areas at Sandia Kevin W. Boyack*,Nabeel Rahal Sandia National Laboratories, 1 P o box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185, United states
Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 15 september 2004; accepted 16 september 2004 Abstract Sandia National Laboratories conducts a variety of research projects each year under its Laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) program.
Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies.
Tools, techniques, and specific analyses are presented here. We find that these tools and techniques hold great promise for aiding the future direction of the science and technology enterprise.
which goes from October 1 to September 30. K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1125 document matrix.
Some of these were anticipated by the CIS investment team in that the FY2005 calls (issued in March 2004) reflected an increased interest in informatics,
03 december 2014, At: 05:05 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Toni Ahlqvist, Minna Halonen, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, Johanna Kohl, Raija Koivisto, Jouko Myllyoja & Nina Wessberg (2012) Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture
Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www. tandfonline. com/page/termsanndconditions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Technology analysis & Strategic management Vol. 24
8 september 2012,821 841 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces: constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland Toni Ahlqvist*,Minna Halonen, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, Johanna Kohl, Raija Koivisto
http://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 822 T. Ahlqvist et al. future.
but the unrealised options also‘haunt'the present in the organisation's Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
1) partial structural openness that endorses flexibility in the organisational Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 824 T. Ahlqvist et al. structures and (2) an anticipatory culture that builds on an anticipatory agency
varying roughly from a few months to 2 years. In these checkpoints, the roadmap is assessed against the changed circumstances.
For example, the long term in the context of a highly dynamic field, such as mobile Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
yet roadmapping is still more of a technique for strategic focussing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 826 T. Ahlqvist et al.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces 827 In process-based roadmapping,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 828 T. Ahlqvist et al. Table 1. Depiction of knowledge spaces.
In this space, the technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
at 05:05 03 december 2014 830 T. Ahlqvist et al. structures. The third scope is called systemic I,
Second, it perceived the market as a platform for new Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and indoor services Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 832 T. Ahlqvist et al. services and service providers.
and attempted to define markets Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
developing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 834 T. Ahlqvist et al. Table 4. Summary of the knowledge spaces of the SSB network.
Visionary ideas about technology-enabled services could also be one way to stimulate Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
There were five research phases Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 836 T. Ahlqvist et al.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces 837 Table 6. Summary of the knowledge spaces in the Nordic ICT Foresight.
and even towards fostering a visionary innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 838 T. Ahlqvist et al. culture at the level of nation-states.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces 839 The article created insights for managing systemic entities, such as organisations or companies, in systemic environments.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 840 T. Ahlqvist et al. Acknowledgements Toni Ahlqvist wishes to thank the Academy of Finland (grant SA132628) for the financial support for this work.
September 15 in Phillip Island, Victoria, Australia. Ahlqvist, T.,A. Bäck, S. Heinonen, and M. Halonen. 2010.
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28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Ying Guo, Tingting Ma, Alan L. Porter & Lu Huang (2012) Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 843-861, DOI:
8 september 2012,843 861 Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways Ying Guoa Tingting Maa, Alan L. Porterb and Lu Huanga*aschool of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of technology, Beijing, China;
://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 844 Y. Guo et al.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 845 2. 2. Analysing NESTS NESTS comprise a loose category (Foxon et al. 2005;
and available human knowledge of the particular innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 846 Y. Guo et al. system, within the context of a more general innovation context (i e. the socioeconomic context in
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 847 Step J,
Work in this stage should take into account competing technologies that may hold advantages over the target NEST under study.
This showed Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 848 Y. Guo et al. high precision (minimal noise.
In the long term, we believe that general Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 849 Figure 2. TDS for DSSCS in the USA. economic forces will favour innovation
We Are downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 850 Y. Guo et al. Figure 3. DSSC publication and patent trends. not sure why this is so;
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 851 Figure 4. DSSC science overlay map.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 852 Y. Guo et al. Table 1. Leading DSSC research institutions (showing percentages within these 11 organisations.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 853 Once such highly active players have been identified,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 854 Y. Guo et al. Figure 5. Focused DSSC cross-charting:
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 855 sulphide Figure 6. Ingredients for the multipath exploration.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 December 2014 856 Y. Guo et al. Figure 7. Multipath map for DSSCS.
Figure 7 raises the desirability of life-cycle Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 857 analyses to consider likely life span, maintainability, material transformation
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 858 Y. Guo et al. FIP aims to inform ST&I management (private sector) and policy (public sector.
Chemtech 6 june: 372 83. Collingridge, D. 1980. The social control of technology. London: Pinter. Ezra, A a. 1975.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 859 Guo, Y.,L. Huang,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 860 Y. Guo et al. 2004. Technology futures analysis:
or#2 or#3 or#4 Combined search terms Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 861 Appendix 2. Different generations of solar cells Material
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014
Identifying expected areas of future innovation by combining foresight outputs Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada Abstract Purpose This paper attempts to examine the efficacy of combining outputs from a foresight exercise by different
and may require a total review by experts. For such themes with less matching, an out-of-the-box discussion is needed on the contributions that science
‘‘The BMBF Foresight process'',paper presented at the 3rd International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, October 16-17, Seville.
and perspectives that may collide with the conclusions drawn from the most recent foresight results. In other words an organization might have to adapt its structure again and again to optimize its ability to absorb each round of foresight results
since government institutions need to be careful about raising expectations that may remain unfulfilled. On a positive note
At this stage it is possible to map out in a first iteration the disputes that may hinder the strategic dialogues By its nature,
''paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, May 12-13, Seville. Fisher, R. and Ury, W. 1991), Getting to Yes Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In, Penguin, New york, NY.
''paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, May 12-13, Seville. Welp, M.,de la Vega-Leinert, A.,Stoll-Kleemann, S. and Jaeger, C. C. 2006),‘Science-based stakeholder dialogues:
‘‘Review of Global Drivers and Trends from a National Perspective in a Global context'',was a four-month exercise that sought to‘‘to develop a catalogue of global drivers and trends,
the 12-month exercise has had the aim of identifying up to 20 priority areas for the allocation of public funding of research and development over five years.
results of a national Delphi'',3rd International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 16-17 october, Seville, Book of Abstracts.
this may provide a CTI value. Therefore, the top 25 percent important Delphi topics before 2020 are selected according to the foresight result in each country,
in order to assign IPC codes to relevant records since January 2010 (Vivavip, 2010). In addition, since the IPC code provides a hierarchical framework for mapping future technology themes,
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www. wipo. int/classifications/ipc/en/general/preface. html (accessed February 10, 2010. PAGE 72 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 About the authors Hai-Chen Lin is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),
Received 14 may 2011 Accepted 18 september 2012 Available online 28 november 2012 This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change
as well as provide guidance for the identification of the features that may help the selection of the appropriate set of tools
Defending Against the Unknown, the Uncertain & the Unexpected, Presidents & Prime ministers, vol. 11, Issue 2, 2002, pp. 33 36,(Mar/Apr 2 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 2011,12 13 may. 7 L. Gao, A l. Porter, J. Wang, S. Fang, X. Zhang, T. Ma, W. Wang, L. Huang, Technology life cycle analysis method
Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 9 july 2012 Accepted 3 september 2012 Available online 8 november 2012 The FTA COMMUNITY relies on a set of disciplines and methods,
This section elaborates on these aspects by discussing some of the barriers that may hamper a deeper integration of quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS. 4. 1. Barriers stemming from an epistemological divide in social sciences The main barrier to a full methodological integration is epistemological
The shortage of examples of full methodological integration (as shown in Section 3 may also reflect deeply ingrained cultural differences hindering good communication between different epistemological communities.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 identification of the features that may help the organisers of FTA projects in the selection of the most appropriate set of tools (characterising
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