Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T Foresight activities are conducted often to anticipate major societal future challenges
and hence may enable also otherwise adversary parties to learn together and search for common ground for long-term agendas.
and the implications for regulation towards an approach for the information society, COM/97/623, December 1997.17 Nordic ICT foresight, available at:
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T Future oriented technology analysis (FTA) applied to innovation policy and practice often goes well beyond the narrow domain of technology forecasting.
there are always factors that lie outside of these models that may intervene. In the case in question
whose knowledge of the future may well be far less than omniscient, and whose acts of creation are undertaken for the purpose of learning.
and communication (these may use communications media as well as face-to-face meetings), and wider networking activities. Discussions of knowledge management,
or may simply imply such an account (which an observer equipped with relevant knowledge will be able to reconstruct).
The agents in question may well make use of technological aids and texts notably whiteboards and flip-charts on which diagrams
and may involve several dozen participants. Larger workshops employ‘‘break out groups''of say 6 12 people exploring different subscenarios or aspects of scenarios in detail.
and other tangible outputs that may enter into the processes of the sponsor and other stakeholders,
though this may require careful design and careful management of IT system designers who may lean more toward TKM frameworks.
Training Programme on Technology foresight, UNIDO Regional Initiative on Technology foresight for Central and Eastern europe and the Newly Independent States, Gebze, Turkey, 19 23 november 2007.32 K. E. Weick, Sensemaking in Organizations
safeguards in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI), Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville, September 28 29,2006 (available at:
Available online 26 november 2010 A b s T R A c T FTA and equity addresses the need for multiple stakeholders'participation in public policy and corporate decision making thus leading to more democratic societies.
One may argue that citizens who are given the opportunity to be informed effectively; to understand and to have a say on new technological choices in appropriate settings,
at least, the Second International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (September 2006. The greater acknowledgement of the co-evolution of technology and society,
Development Sustainability Environment, Newcastle Civic Centre on 27 september 2003 (available at: http://www. thegreatdebate. org. uk/GDDSEDL1. html, last visited on 03 october 2008.
2 B. Ulrich, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity, Sage, London, 1992.3 F. Soddy, Cartesian Economics:
P042-T4), Athens, July 9 11 (Keynote paper), 2007.19 EC, Growing Regions, Growing Europe: Fourth Report on Economic and Social Cohesion, European communities, 2007.20 C. H. Cagnin, An information architecture to enable business sustainability.
California Management Review 2 (1960) 70 76.34 B. Gates, Making Capitalism More Creative, Time Inc.,2008 July 31.
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T Following work done in the UK, Canada and now starting across Europe,
particularly where these may create entirely new challenges and opportunities? Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards,
The survey was launched 6 months prior to the Conference. More than 250 responses were submitted by the Conference date.
Global Futures Forum Vancouver April 2008, Europe@2025 European commission. Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures journal homepage:
as well as persistent problems or trends''(http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk last visited on March 14, 2009.
The attacks of September 11, 2001, which created significant shocks to the global security, airport screening and intelligence systems and practices;
but not confirmed changes that may later become more significant indicators of critical forces for development, threats, business and technical innovation.
Again, to be able to embody there types of wild cards into some scenarios could be a provocative and rewarding exercise to test some of the leverage points that may impact change
January 30, 2009. 4 N. Damrongchai, P. Satangput, G. Tegart, C. Sripaipan, Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific, Science and Public policy 37 (1)( 2010
March 14, 2009. 6 J. Smith, Presentation at the Centre for Innovation studies, Thecis Breakfast Edmonton Alberta, January 13th, 2009.7 J. Petersen, Out of the blue How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises, Madison Books, 2000.8
K. Steinmueller, Thinking about The Future-Strategic Anticipation and RAHS by Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS), National Security Coordination Secretariat, Singapore, 2008.9 M. P. Barber,
March 14, 2009. 14 R c. Jantz, Technological Discontinuities in the Library: Digital Projects that Illustrate New Opportunities for the Librarian and the Library, in:
66th IFLA Council and General Conference, Jerusalem, Israel, 13 18 august 2000. Available at: http://www. ifla. org/IV/ifla66/papers/006-120e. htm (last visited on:
March 14, 2009. 15 Social Technologies, Discontinuity: Mobility, 2008. Available at: http://www. socialtechnologies. com/Fileview. aspx?
March 14, 2009. 16 E. Hiltunen, Weak signals, Presentation given at the Finland futures research centre, 2007. Available at: http://www. slideshare. net/whatidiscover/weaksiggnal (last visited on:
March 14, 2009. 17 Y. Nugroho, O. Saritas, Incorporating network perspectives in Foresight: a methodological proposal, Foresight 11 (2009) 6, 21 41.
The setting for the interviews was the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference organised by the EU Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technology studies (IPTS) in Seville in October 2008.
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers conducted during the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville
on 16 17 october 2008. Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history.
§This paper is based on interviews with nine leading FTA researchers conducted during the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on October 16 17,2008.
and in all components of public and private decision-making. 4. Conclusions The interviews conducted as a component of the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16 17 october 2008 provide a clear insight into the current state of the FTA
and may well resort to other guides to the future, or apply them (as we have seen with scenario planning) with little comprehension of their essential components.
Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference, Seville, October, 2008, accessible at: http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/prog day1. html. 4 F. Scapolo, E. Cahill, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis, in:
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) held in May 2011 illustrated the existing variety of FTA APPROACHES to address structural
COM (2008) 886 Final 16 december, Commission of the European communities, Brussels. DLR and KIT (2010), OPTIC Deliverable 2:
''paper presented at the European Transport Conference, Glasgow, 12 october. Kleindorfer, P. R. 2008),‘Reflections on the decision making under uncertainties'',Faculty and Research Working Paper, INSEAD, Fontainebleau, available at:
www-schlichtung. s21. de (accessed 2 august 2011. Scapolo, F. and Porter, A l. 2008),‘New methodological developments in FTA'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analyses:
applications and case studies) have developed out of need (see www. andyhinesight. com/category/foresight-2/(accessed August 2011) re practitioner usage);
(and will never‘‘settle down'')a peak may become worthless compared to others and the taxi driver may go out of business (selection).
www. bis. gov. uk/assets/foresight/docs/horizonscanning-centre/futuresinpolicyguidance. pdf (accessed 6 june 2012. Byrne, D. 1998), Complexity theory and the Social sciences:
All stages were conducted within a compelling timeframe of four months. Together these four elements formed an integral process where each stage produced a deeper understanding of different socio-technical interconnections that affect the way the future unfolds,
I Progress of the scenario process Phase Time Method Goal Material gathering and final design of the study September 2008 Literary review,
designing the first questionnaire Defining the expert group involved in the futures workshops together with the Prime minister's Office's scenario team 1st Delphi round October 2008 Delphi:
which climate and energy policy should focus Futures workshop October 2008 Futures workshop, ACTVOD futures process Building alternative scenarios that all fulfil the two-degree target 2nd Delphi round November 2008 Delphi:
online survey targeted for expert group (with Webropol survey software) Testing and specifying the development paths constructed in the first futures workshop:
four distinctive scenarios, are constructed Futures workshop November 2008 Futures workshop, ACTVOD futures process Analysing and specifying the four designed scenarios Final report December 2008 Final report in electronic format Report gathering together the results of the process:
four different paths for the desired end state PAGE 306 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 book Looking Backward 2000-1887.
and approved in the government and by Parliament in October 2009. A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.
Prime minister's Office organised a gathering on March 29, 2011 for those involved in the foresight report work to discuss retrospectively the process
l en&s 2658 (accessed 20 december 2011. 2. The scenario titles are here in the form that they are presented in Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
Dunlop, I. 2009), Club of Rome activities of Australian members, Club of Rome General assembly, 24 october, Amsterdam.
www. ipcc. ch/publications and data/publications ipcc fourth assessment report wg3 report mitigation of climate change. htm (accessed 20 december 2011. Jungk, R. 1987), Futures Workshops:
http://ffrc. utu. fi/julkaisut/ejulkaaisujaetutu 2010-8. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011. Linstone, H. A. and Turoff, M. Eds)( 1975), The Delphi method:
www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2009/j28-ilmasto-selonteko-j29-klimat-framtidsredogoerelse-j30-climate /pdf/en. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
www. stat. fi/til/ehkh/2008/04/ehkh 2008 04 2009-03-24 kuv 017 en. html (accessed 20 december 2011. Wilenius, M. 2011),‘Towards a pioneering status?
www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2011/j01-02-03-kohti-edellakavijyytta/PDF/en. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2011/r04-05-06-tulevaisuusselonteko-suosituksia/PDF/fi. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 30 september 2004; accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping
and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms.
Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain
The preceding informal network was formed in 2001 and recently, in November 2003, it received a substantial funding of 95 Million Euro by the Dutch government,
In May 2003 a prototype of 10 Gb is ready and produced by standard semiconductor processes 28.
In September 2003 Nantero receives the second Venture capital grant 20. In the same month Nantero shows compatibility with lithography equipment from ASML 18.
In February 2004 Nantero 29 states they are on track for NRAM development. Here we see that Nantero over the years has built on the expectations that nonvolatile memories will be commercialised soon.
These expectations were formulated in the following way. In 2002 Rueckes et al. 16 state: bplans for molecular electronics, may be realized soon.
Q In May 2003 Nantero 28 states: bcreating this enormous array of suspended nanotubes using standard semiconductor processes brings us much closer to our end goal of mass producing NRAM chips.
Q In September 2003 Nantero 28 states: buniversal memory has been a dream for the semiconductor industry for decades we fell that Nantero's innovative approach using carbon nanotubes
as stated in May 2003 28: bthis process was used to make a 10 Gb array now,
A Technical, Political and Institutional Map of Emerging technologies, Greenpeace Environmental Trust, London, 2003, July 14 Royal Society, Royal Academy of Engineering, Nanoscience and nanotechnologies:
Nantero Press release (September 2003. 19 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. announces $6mm in funding aims to rapidly develop nanotube-based universal memory.
Nantero Press release (October 2001. 20 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. announces $10. 5mm in funding developing nanotube-based nonvolatile RAM technology for licensing.
Nantero Press release (September 2003. 21 P. Ball, Roll up for the revolution, Nature 414 (2001)( November.
22 ETC group, The big down, Atomtech: Technologies Converging at the Nanoscale, 2003 (January. 23 P. G. Collins, P. Avouris, Nanotubes for electronics, Scientific American 283 (6)( 2000 (December)) 62 69.24 Cientifica:
The Nanotechnology Opportunity Report. 2nd edition (June 2003. 25 M. R. Diehl, S n. Yaliraki, R. A. Beckman, M. Barahona, J. R. Heath, Self-assembled, deterministic carbon nanotube wiring
networks, Angewandte Chemie International Edition 41 (2)( 2002) 353 356.26 Y. Huang, X. Duan, Q. Wei, C. M. Lieber, Directed
assembly of one-dimensional nanostructures into functional networks, Science 291 (2001) 630 633.27 P. Ball, Cylinders make circuits spontaneously, Nature News Service (2002)( January.
28 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. creates an array of ten billion nanotubes bits on single wafer standard semiconductor processes used.
Nantero Press release (May 2003. 29 Nantero, Nantero's Dr. Thomas Rueckes garners awards and acknowledges company on track for NRAM development.
Nantero Press release (February 2004. 30 ETC group, Playing god in the Galapagos, News Release (2004)( March), Issue 84.31 S. J. Tans, A r. M. Verschueren, C. Dekker, Room-temperature
transistor based on a single carbon nanotube, Nature 393 (1998) 49 52.32 A. Rip, T. J. Misa, T. J.,J. Schot, Managing Technology
As invited professor in philosophy and sociology of technology he stayed 6 months at the University of Oviedo, Spain.
Findings Major findings are obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory.
However, the reciprocal relations that may develop between the sustainable development paradigm and the general behaviour of society have not been assessed rigorously.
2. identify and assess change trends that may affect sustainable development; and 3. design future scenarios for the evolution of sustainable development.
They mostly provide general guidelines about sustainable development that may or may not be followed by local governments. Municipal policies are implemented strictly through norms and regulations.
www. foresightplatform. eu (accessed 14 july 2011. European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007), Scenarios on the Territorial Future of Europe, ESPON, Belgium.
http://forlearn. jrc. ec. europa. eu/guide (accessed 16 september 2011. Fundacio'n OPTI (2007), Estudio de prospectiva sobre el comportamiento social ante el desarrollo sostenible, Fundacio'n OPTI, Madrid.
Gavigan, J. P. and Scapolo, F. 2001),‘La prospectiva y la visio'n del desarrollo regional a largo plazo'',The IPTS Report, 56, July
www. millennium-project. org (accessed 16 september 2011. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2001), Les lignes directrices du CAD Strate'gies de de'veloppement durable, Organisation for Economic Co
United nations (1992),‘Agenda 21 Report'',United nations Conference on Environment and Development, 3-14 june, Ri'o de Janeiro. van der Heijden, K. 1996), Scenarios:
In this context, the greatest virtue of the scenario planning technique is not to predict how the future may look like,
moreover, may also affect the application of fta to legal research. In this particular, the question one encounters is how to measure the quality and the appropriateness of the legal research based on a specific FTA (determining, for instance,
and manipulations that may affect the production of such idea or vision of future. In other words, we may run the risk of having a specific vision of the future directly produced
a need for systematic anticipation, address delivered at the National Conference on the Causes of Popular Dissatisfaction with the Administration of Justice, St paul, MN, April 1976'',New york state Bar Journal, p. 49.
ex post evaluation of regulatory policies'',Proceedings of the OECD Expert Meeting, September, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Porter, A l. and Cunningham, S w. 2005
. 36 40, D-76021 Karlsruhe, Germany Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 30 september 2004;
accepted 2 october 2004 Abstract Technology assessment reflecting on R&d and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research
while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (N10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socioeconomic context of a technical product
Since 2003 he is a member of the scientific staff and since February 2004 deputy head of the Institute for Technology assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) at the Research centre Karlsruhe.
03 december 2014, At: 04:57 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Karel Haegeman, K. Matthias Weber & Totti Könnölä (2012) Preparing for grand challenges:
Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www. tandfonline. com/page/termsanndconditions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Technology analysis & Strategic management Vol. 24
8 september 2012,729 734 EDITORIAL Preparing for grand challenges: the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 730 Editorial information era will be followed by a molecular era,
and what their potential and limitations Are downloaded in by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 731 addressing Grand challenges.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 732 Editorial Should a firm match its foresight approach with the types of uncertainty it faces?
Stronger emphasis on creativity and exploration of truly Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 733 alternative future developments are called for to be prepared better to address both the existing Grand challenges
http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/FTA2011 CALL FINAL. pdf. Last accessed July 2012.2. A fourth religious/mythological perspective can add to bridging the gap between the systems analysis and the real world.
and assessing human environment interactions. http://www. cartogis. org/docs/proceedings/2006/edsall larson. pdf (accessed 6 august 2012).
Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. Hames, R. 2011b. Feedback on the 2011 international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 734 Editorial Linstone, H. A. 2011a.
Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011
accessed 6 august 2012. Linstone, H. A. 2011b. Three eras of technology foresight. Technovation 31, nos. 2 3: 69 76.
Fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/JO
%202011. ppt (accessed 6 august 2012. Slaughter, R. A. 2008. Integral futures methodologies. Futures 40, no. 2: 103 8. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014
This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 04:52 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Ilkka Tuomi (2012) Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 735-751, DOI:
8 september 2012,735 751 Foresight in an unpredictable world Ilkka Tuomi*Meaning Processing Ltd. Merenneidontie 24 D, 02320 Espoo, Finland Unpredictability has two main sources:
http://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 736 I. Tuomi are active generators of novelty
which in competitive markets remains the only source of profits. 1 Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 737 Epistemic uncertainty Integrating the numerous extant typologies
The nature of the beast Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 738
'The same artefact Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 739 can be used for many different purposes in many different social practices, each with its own developmental trajectories.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 740 I. Tuomi In Bergson's analysis,
stories of heroic innovators emerge telling howsms functionalitywas devised by clever engineers in the GSM standardisation groups in the mid-1980s.3 Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable
At the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 742 I. Tuomi level of operations, progress, in turn,
In practice, simple tinkering may also be important. Schön (1987,31) illustrated such a process by recounting Edmund Carpenter's description of the Eskimo sculptor patiently carving a reindeer bone,
The stimulus of my action Is downloaded not just by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 743 the sight of the bear,
and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 744 I. Tuomi Figure 1. Modelling relation according to Rosen. mathematical models that make predictive statements particularly efficient and allow,
Ontological Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 745 Figure 2. Modelling in the context of the phenomenological veil. unpredictability,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 746 I. Tuomi A similar story underlies the GSM short messaging example Engineers first define a standard that allows short messages to be delivered using the GSM control channel.
A potential approach to reduce such misplaced overconfidence is to explicate both the underlying Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 747 assumptions (Rossel 2009)
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 748 I. Tuomi In general facts exist only for natural systems that have associated measurement instruments and established encodings and decodings between the natural system and its formal model.
For example, ageing may become a‘grand challenge 'when we assume an industrial age model of factory-based production, industrial era life patterns and health services,
and we cannot define the meaning Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 749 of a word by adding up letters.
Harvard Business Review (January February: 43 53. Bowker, G, . and S l. Star. 1999. Sorting things out:
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 750 I. Tuomi Hiltunen, E. 2008.
2 march: 201 18. Milian, M. 2009. Why text messages are limited to 160 characters. Los angeles times, May 3. http://latimesblogs. latimes. com/technology/2009/05/invented-text-messaging. html Miller, R. 2007.
Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures 39, no. 4: 341 62. Mirowski, P. 1998.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 751 Rossel, P. 2009.
Reprinted from Review of Economic Statistics, May 2 10,1935. In Essays on entrepreneurs, innovations, business cycles and the evolution of capitalism, ed. R. V. Clemence, 134 49.
Dagens Industri, May 11. http://di. se/Artiklar/2008/5/11/41905/Mannensoomuppfann-sms-et/Whitehead, A n. 1978.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014
This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 04:56 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Denis Loveridge & Ozcan Saritas (2012) Ignorance and uncertainty:
8 september 2012,753 767 Ignorance and uncertainty: influences on future-oriented technology analysis Denis Loveridge*and Ozcan Saritas Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) deals in phenomenological ignorance
/09537325.2012.715477 http://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 754 D. Loveridge
The paper sets out to pay much attention to the situations that may confront FTA practitioners,
The co-joining of quantitative and qualitative information is exemplified by the T ohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 march 2011 north east of Japan.
an extreme case of the combination of an Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 755 unusually severe earthquake and tsunami,
No doubt it Will be downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 756 D. Loveridge and O. Saritas argued that this is not
All this may or may not involve formal processes for bringing together quantitative and qualitative information that goes beyond the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 757 conventional‘synthesis report'.
'The latter may, or may not, recognise the nature of the expertise and uncertainties involved revealed in the next section. 4. FTA and subjective behaviour:
methodological issues and metaphors FTA assumes that its processes have an innate capability to deal with dynamic situations made up of many interconnected themes, each
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 758 D. Loveridge and O. Saritas Throughout FTA,
and conversely of ignorance, on the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance
and to get past their dichotomy by placing knowledge in a broader context of its contribution to social evolution Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 760 D. Loveridge
these judgements place less Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 761 emphasis on philosophical matters and more on practical ones of concern in FTA,
that may include prioritising important areas of intervention, though prioritisation is underdeveloped an art. The next section illustrates how knowledge relevant to FTA can be elicited showing the practical implications of many of the issues raised above. 6. Combining quantitative
though thatwas the more important aspect Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 762 D. Loveridge
this raised the subsidiary question of their individual levels Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 764 D. Loveridge and O. Saritas 7. Future influences on FTA All the foregoing has lain within the conventional boundaries of FTA
and acceptance, bringing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 765 a new social role for computation and computers.
For that appreciation to return the current global circulation climate models (GCM's) may need to be seen as simply a module in a much bigger global model.
and that which cannot be at the time Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 766 D. Loveridge
large and small, relating to Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 767 long-term directions of change in the business environment.
September, 817 40. Casti, J. L. 2010. Mood matters: From rising skirt lengths to the collapse of world powers.
December, 335 54. Roberts, J. 2012. Organizational ignorance: Towards a managerial prospective on the unkown.
10.1177/1350507612443208, April 30, http://mlq. sagepub. com/(accessed May 31, 2012. Rumsfeld, D. 2002. Department of defense news briefing, February 12, http://www. defense. gov/transcripts/transcript. aspx?
transcriptid=2636 (accessed December 1, 2010. Savage, L j. 1954. The foundations of statistics. Newyork: Wiley. Staton, M. 2006.
Impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, Theme 2 FTAEVALUATION, Impact and Learning, September 28 29, Seville, 12 pp.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011