applications and case studies) have developed out of need (see www. andyhinesight. com/category/foresight-2/(accessed August 2011) re practitioner usage);
2008) and Miller (2011. In many ways, foresight techniques also originally arose out of the need to deal with unexpected events in the technology and political arenas, for example the classic Shell scenarios.
has focussed on adapting scenario techniques, Rami'rez and Van der Heijden (2008) or on wild card management, for example that based on weak signal methodologies, Mendonc¸a et al.
2004). ) As complexity theory itself has developed, Mitchell (2009), so has limited some work in the foresight field, Ringland (2010) and Miller and Poli (2010),
but there has been little specific consideration of how foresight techniques need to PAGE 294 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 294-303, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
ISSN 1463-6689 DOI 10.1108/14636681211256080 Averil Horton is a Visiting Fellow at Brunel University Business school, Uxbridge,
UK. be developed more generally to accommodate complexity theory and its specific implications for disruptive events. In addition, there has been published little work
Foresight may be either an art or a science, Bell (2003), and may or may not be, a discipline,
including Prigogine and Stengers (1984), Byrne (1998) Mitchell (2009), Goodwin (1994), Strogatz (2003), and Waldrop (1992),
but like any developing area there are many common themes. This paper will explore some selected elements of complexity theory and their implications for foresight techniques,
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 295 Systems can also be unexpectedly very stable highly resistant to change by policy intervention-or very unstable such as where a policy intervention leads to stream of unexpected changes
2000). ) Equally, there can be long periods of (apparent) stability, (called‘‘attractors''as they are states to which the system is attracted)
a difference in the 7th decimal place will determine which of two possible tracks it goes down Mitchell (2009:
PAGE 296 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Agents need to be able to see the adjacent deep valley a potential future peak,
Glouberman and Zimmerman (2002) A complex system is made up of many individual, self-organizing elements capable of responding to others and to their environment.
Mikulecky (2001) Complexity is the property of a real world system that is manifest in the inability of any one formalism being adequate to capture all its properties.
Axelrod and Cohen (2001) A complex system is a body of causal processes and agents whose interactions lead to outcomes that are unpredictable.
From a foresight perspective however, Axelrod's (1985) is the most useful: Agents, of a variety of types, use their strategies, in patterned interaction, with each other and with artefacts.
a flock of birds flying is another, Reynolds (1987. In summary the implications of complexity theory for foresight techniques are that they must:
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 297 B Enable practitioners to visualise systems from very different perspectives,
i e. being a description of perception rather than a description of reality (Schwartz, 1991), or more simply as reframing the future landscape and potential strategies, options,
An example of Reframing from Battram (2000: After much searching in many different areas of the city, you have finally found a possible flat to buy
angry birds PAGE 298 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 You realise, keep quiet and start to walk out of the shop;
Axelrod and Cohen (2001) call it the‘‘shadow of the future''.''From the perspective of applying foresight the benefits of reframing are:
''Some foresight techniques do use Reframing, for example in causal layered analysis, Inayatullah (1990), employs reframing at the deep myth/metaphor level. 4. Results policy making implications We all have our favourite story of a failed
Axelrod and Cohen (2001) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 299 describe the idea of harnessing complexity to deliberately change the structure of the system,
Battram (2000) and Swanson and Bhadwal (2009), have considered how complexity-based foresight can be applied to policy making.
Table II adapted from Bhimji (2009)- direction, design, and delivery to explore one example of a complexity-based technique to deal with disruptive events in policy-making Promoting variation.
Adapted from Bhimji (2009) PAGE 300 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 bring the benefits of realising that there are more variations than originally thought of
There are at least three key ideas, Battram (2000) and Swanson and Bhadwal (2009), which can help policy makers to promote variation:
and strengthen those policies VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 301 Foresight methodology Foresight techniques need to be developed to embrace emergence to harness the self-organised behaviour that results from interactions between the parts of a complex system rather than
References Axelrod, R. 1985), The Evolution of Cooperation, reprinted ed.,Basic books, New york, NY. Axelrod, R. and Cohen, M. 2001), Harnessing Complexity:
Organizational Implications of a Scientific Frontier, The Free Press, New york, NY. Battram, A. 2000), Navigating Complexity:
The Essential Guide to Complexity theory in Business and Management, Spiro Press, London. Bell, W. 2003), Foundations of Futures studies:
History, Purposes, and Knowledge, Volume 1: Human Science for a New Era, Transaction Publishers, Piscataway, NJ.
Bhimji, W. 2009), Guidance on the Use of Strategic foresight Analysis for Policy development in Government, UK Government office for Science, London, available at:
www. bis. gov. uk/assets/foresight/docs/horizonscanning-centre/futuresinpolicyguidance. pdf (accessed 6 june 2012. Byrne, D. 1998), Complexity theory and the Social sciences:
An Introduction, Routledge, New york, NY. Gheorghiou, L.,Cassingena Harper, J.,Keenan, M. and Miles, I. 2008), The Handbook of Technology foresight:
Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp. 3-23. Glouberman, S. and Zimmerman, B. 2002), Complicated and Complex systems:
What Would Successful Reform of Medicare Look like? Commission on the Future of Healthcare in Canada, Ottawa.
Goodwin, B. 1994), How the Leopard Changed Its Spots, Phoenix, London. Inayatullah, S. 1990),‘Deconstructing
and reconstructing the future: predictive, cultural and critical epistemologies'',Futures, Vol. 22 No. 2, pp. 115-41.
PAGE 302 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Mendonc¸A s.,Pine Cunha, M.,Kaivo-oja, J. and Ruff, F. 2004), Futures, Vol
Mikulecky, C. 2001),‘The emergence of complexity: science coming of age or science growing old?''''Computers and Chemistry, Vol. 25, pp. 341-8. Miller, M. 2011),‘Being without existing:
the futures community at a turning point? A comment on Jay Ogilvy's‘Facing the fold'''Foresight, Vol. 13 No. 4, pp. 24-34.
Miller, R. and Poli, R. 2010),‘Introduction to a Special issue on anticipatory systems and the philosophical foundations of future studies'',Foresight, Vol. 12 No. 3. Mitchell, M. 2009), Complexity:
I. 1984), Order Out of Chaos: Man's New Dialogue with Nature, Heinemann, London. Rami'rez, R. and Van der Heijden, K. Eds)( 2008), Business Planning for Turbulent Times:
New methods for Applying Scenarios, Earthscan, London. Reynolds, C. 1987),‘Flocks, herds, and schools, a distributed behavioural model 1'',Computer graphics, Vol. 21 No. 4, pp. 25-34.
Ridgeway, J.,Zawojewski, J. S. and Hoover, M. N. 2000),‘Problematising evidence-based policy and practice'',Evaluation and Research in Education, Vol. 14 Nos
3/4. Ringland, G. 2010),‘Frameworks for coping with post-normal times: a response to Ziauddin Sardar'',Futures, Vol. 42 No. 6, pp. 633-9. Schwartz, P. 1991), The Art of the Long View:
Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Bantam Doubleday Dell, New york, NY. Strogatz, S. 2003), Sync:
The Emerging science of Spontaneous Order, Hyperion, New york, NY. Swanson, D. and Bhadwal, S. 2009), Creating Adaptive Policies:
A Guide for Policymaking in an Uncertain World, Sage Publications, Ottowa. Waldrop, M. 1992), Complexity, The Emerging science at the Edge of Order and Chaos, Simon & Schuster, New york, NY.
Corresponding author Averil Horton can be contacted at: averil@alpha2omega. co. uk VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 303 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
reprints@emeraldinsight. com Or visit our web site for further details: www. emeraldinsight. com/reprints Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.
Further reproduction prohibited without permission
Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions Sirkka Heinonen and Ville Lauttama ki Abstract Purpose The objective of this paper is to present an example on how futures studies methodologies,
especially backcasting, can be used to assist public policy formulation. Backcasting is particularly interesting method in this context,
Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
In 2008-2009 The Finnish Prime minister's Office coordinated the construction of the government foresight report on climate and energy policy (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
and paths that would lead Finland to PAGE 304 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012,
and Ville Lauttama ki is a Researcher, both at the Finland futures research centre, University of Turku, Turku, Finland. low-carbon society by the year 2050.
The scenario process was facilitated by the Finland futures research centre (FFRC) of the University of Turku in late 2008.
and energy strategy for Finland 1. The time horizon in the climate and energy strategy was 2020,
whereas in the foresight report work it was set up for 2050. These two works (foresight report and strategy) supported
the Prime minister's Office had identified already the desired goal for the year 2050: development that will contribute to limiting the rise in the global average temperature to two degrees Celsius at the most,
as well as reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 80 per cent from 1990 levels.
The reduction of at least 80 per cent is at the lower end of the range (80-95 per cent) estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC, 2007) for industrialised countries in accordance with the two-degree target.
B Population of Finland is assumed to grow from the current 5. 3 million to 5. 7 million by 2050.
B Finnish economy will grow markedly by 2050, but the structure of the economy can change.
B Low-carbon technology will improve significantly in all sectors by 2050. B Prices of fossil fuels will rise
B Climate change will alter the conditions in Finland by 2050: the need for heating energy will diminish
The Delphi process was adopted to VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 305 provide a basis for a group communication process,
Gordon, 2010; Linstone and Turoff, 2011. All stages were conducted within a compelling timeframe of four months.
Together these four elements formed an integral process where each stage produced a deeper understanding of different socio-technical interconnections that affect the way the future unfolds,
2006) rightly point out. Scenarios cover a whole array of various types of scenarios. Mannermaa (1991) even distinguishes a scenario paradigm.
The main purpose in using the scenario approach is not to predict but to construct several different futures
I Progress of the scenario process Phase Time Method Goal Material gathering and final design of the study September 2008 Literary review,
designing the first questionnaire Defining the expert group involved in the futures workshops together with the Prime minister's Office's scenario team 1st Delphi round October 2008 Delphi:
which climate and energy policy should focus Futures workshop October 2008 Futures workshop, ACTVOD futures process Building alternative scenarios that all fulfil the two-degree target 2nd Delphi round November 2008 Delphi:
online survey targeted for expert group (with Webropol survey software) Testing and specifying the development paths constructed in the first futures workshop:
four distinctive scenarios, are constructed Futures workshop November 2008 Futures workshop, ACTVOD futures process Analysing and specifying the four designed scenarios Final report December 2008 Final report in electronic format Report gathering together the results of the process:
four different paths for the desired end state PAGE 306 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 book Looking Backward 2000-1887.
Backcasting is considered as an opposite to forecasting, which is a process of predicting the future on the basis of current trend analysis,
it sets a preferred goal (Ho jer et al. 2011, p. 11. As opposite to traditional forecasting, backasting suits well in the study and solving of highly complex,
they call for creative and radical solutions (Hickman and Banister, 2007, p. 378. As today's conditions and thinking patterns often narrow possible solutions
''Ho jer et al. 2011, pp. 11-12. Instead of continuities they build on possible discontinuities to reach the solution desired
Backcasting scenarios are usually relatively long-term (20-100 years)( Robinson, 1990, p. 820), which in itself helps thinking outside current trends
in formulating the path from the future to present external factors need to be taken account (Robinson, 1990, pp. 830-831).
value-laden issues, increase social learning and in themselves advance social change (Robinson et al. 2011, p. 757).
i e. they are adopted in search for prerequisites for preferred futures (Robinson, 1982); and 2. growing interest towards backcasting scenarios had been shown in Finland,
Dunlop, 2009), and Sweden (e g. A°kerman 2011. Backcasting has been applied especially for climate, energy and transport scenarios (see, e g.
Bo rjeson et al. 2006. First round of Delphi questionnaire The process was kicked off with the first round of a Delphi questionnaire.
The first questionnaire was aimed at collecting views of the expert group to provide a basis for the scenario work.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 307 First futures workshop The goal of the first futures workshop soon following the first Delphi round was to collect views
the imaginary phase (futures wheel), systematic phase (futures table) and explanatory phase (drafting an array of scenarios for sustainable Finland 2050.
This sequence of three main phases in the workshop was a modification of Jungk's (1987) workshop formula,
Results and policy implications The final results of the foresight process were four scenarios that all fulfil the targets of reducing GHG emissions by at least 80 per cent from the 1990's levels
PAGE 308 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 1. Efficiency revolution (concentration on diminishing energy consumption.
industry (50 per cent), heating of buildings (21 per cent), transport (17 per cent) and miscellaneous uses (13 per cent)( Statistics Finland, 2009.
During the scenario process no significant new energy uses outside these sectors were thought to emerge by 2050.
The results of these calculations are presented in the Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009, pp. 160-184.
and the staff of the Prime minister's Office on whether or not attaching numerical values to scenarios stretching all the way to year 2050 is advisable.
Further refinement in the changes in the operational environment that affect the possibilities to reach the emission goals of 2050 would have been needed to make the foundation for attaching numerical information more solid.
the VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 309 Table II Attributes of the constructed scenarios Scenario/variable A Efficiency revolution B Sustainable daily mile C
both passenger and freight traffic increased Energy consumption Consumption halved from 2008 level. Dramatic improvements in energy efficiency and elastic price system the main reasons behind decreased consumption Decreased by 14 from 2008 level.
Transportation and buildings require significantly less energy than in 2008 Decreased by 1/3 from 2008 level.
New houses and buildings in rural areas either passive or plus-energy houses and/or relying on renewables At the 2008 level
or slightly higher Energy production All energy produced with renewable sources 50 per cent renewable, 50 per cent nuclear energy (use of nuclear power has increased slightly from 2008) 75 per cent renewable,
rest with nuclear energy Share of renewables less than 50 per cent, use of nuclear energy has increased clearly,
CCS technologies in use (continued) PAGE 310 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Table II Scenario/variable A Efficiency revolution B Sustainable daily
and improve the state of the environment VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 311 numbers can also easily be considered as neutral
and approved in the government and by Parliament in October 2009. A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.
This internal evaluation was conducted by the Prime minister's office. One has to bear in mind that the evaluation concerned the whole foresight report,
2010), since a lot of public interest was directed towards it and the full scenarios were published only as attachments in the completed foresight report.
and two external evaluations one being the official statement given by the Committee for the Future in Parliament (2011),
and another one by an expert (Wilenius, 2011). The Committee for the Future (2011) supported the government foresight report.
The Committee had its own analyses of the Finnish climate policy made on three aspects:
In the evaluation of government foresight report by Wilenius (2011), attention was drawn to the fact that the government foresight report could have dug deeper into the economic implications of climate and energy policy
Wilenius (2011) recommends the application of scenarios in the future as well, and proposes that the focus in developing foresight reports should be,
In the evaluation, especially the scenario work is PAGE 312 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 acknowledged for bringing forward genuinely varied possibilities to achieve the emission targets.
2011 for those involved in the foresight report work to discuss retrospectively the process and reflect on the impacts of the foresight report.
remarked on that occasion that it was a major breakthrough achievement to have committed Finland to reducing its emissions to a sustainable level by at least 80 per cent from the 1990 level by 2050.
Finland of low emissions 2050. The measures and steps for reaching that goal will continue to be under debate.
Especially participatory methods where views of various different VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 313 experts are considered are recommended highly.
l en&s 2658 (accessed 20 december 2011. 2. The scenario titles are here in the form that they are presented in Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
In the original scenario work the titles were rather similar, except for the scenario D. Its tentative title‘‘Power from Decentralisation''was transformed into‘‘Technology is the Key''.
References A°kerman, J. 2011),‘Transport systems meeting climate targets. A backcasting approach including international aviation'',doctoral thesis, Royal Institute of technology, Stockholm.
Bellamy, E. 1951), Looking Backward 2000-1887. With an introduction by Robert L. Shurter, Modern Library, New york, NY,(first published 1887.
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques.
Committee for the Future (2011), Tulevaisuusvaliokunnan mietinto 1/2010 vp. Valtioneuvoston tulevaisuusselonteko ilmasto-ja energiapolitiikasta:
Dunlop, I. 2009), Club of Rome activities of Australian members, Club of Rome General assembly, 24 october, Amsterdam.
Gordon, T. J. 2010),‘The Delphi method'',in Gordon, T. J. and Glenn, J. Eds), Futures research methodology CD Version 3. 0, Ch. 4, Millennium Project, WASHINGTON DC.
Hickman, R. and Banister, D. 2007),‘Looking over the horizon: transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030'',Transport Policy, Vol. 14, pp. 377-87.
Ho jer, M.,Gullberg, A. and Petterson, R. 2011), Images of the Future City. Time and Space for Sustainable development, Springer, Dordrecht.
IPCC (2007), IPCC AR4 WGIII, Climate change 2007: Mitigation of Climate change, WGIII Contribution to the IPCC AR4, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge and New york, NY, chapter 13, Box 13.7, p. 776, available at:
www. ipcc. ch/publications and data/publications ipcc fourth assessment report wg3 report mitigation of climate change. htm (accessed 20 december 2011. Jungk, R. 1987), Futures Workshops:
How to Create Desirable futures, Institute for Social Invention, London. Lauttama ki, V. and Heinonen, S. 2010), Va ha isten pa a sto jen Suomi 2050.
Raportti ilmasto-ja energiapoliittisen tulevaisuusselonteon skenaariotyo sta. Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskus, Turun yliopisto, TUTU-e-julkaisuja 8/2010 (in Finnish with an English abstract), available at:
http://ffrc. utu. fi/julkaisut/ejulkaaisujaetutu 2010-8. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011. Linstone, H. A. and Turoff, M. Eds)( 1975), The Delphi method:
Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. Linstone, H. A. and Turoff, M. 2011),‘Delphi:
A brief look backward and forward'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78 No. 9, pp. 1712-9. PAGE 314 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Mannermaa, M
. 1991),‘In search of an evolutionary paradigm for futures research'',Futures, Vol. 23 No. 4, pp. 349-72.
Prime minister's Office (2009), Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a Low-carbon Finland, Prime minister's Office Publication 30/2009, available at:
www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2009/j28-ilmasto-selonteko-j29-klimat-framtidsredogoerelse-j30-climate /pdf/en. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
Robinson, J. 1982),‘Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis'',Energy Policy, Vol. 10 No. 4, pp. 337-44.
Robinson, J. 1990),‘Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict'',Futures, Vol. 22 No. 8, pp. 820-42.
Robinson, J.,Burch, S.,Talwar, S.,O'Shea, M. and Walsh, M. 2011),‘Envisioning sustainability:
recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability research'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78, pp. 756-68.
Statistics Finland (2009),‘Final energy consumption by sector 2008'',available at: www. stat. fi/til/ehkh/2008/04/ehkh 2008 04 2009-03-24 kuv 017 en. html (accessed 20 december 2011.
Wilenius, M. 2011),‘Towards a pioneering status? Assessment of the Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy'',Prime minister's Office, Helsinki, Prime minister's Office Publications 3/2011, available at:
www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2011/j01-02-03-kohti-edellakavijyytta/PDF/en. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
Further reading Committee for the Future (2011), Valtioneuvoston tulevaisuusselonteko ilmasto-ja energiapolitiikasta: suosituksia ja yhteenveto kokemuksista.
Valtioneuvoston kanslian raporttisarja 4/2011 (in Finnish), available at: www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2011/r04-05-06-tulevaisuusselonteko-suosituksia/PDF/fi. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
About the authors Sirkka Heinonen holds a Doctor's degree in Philosophy from Helsinki University. She is Professor of Futures research at the Finland futures research centre, University of Turku.
Previously she was a Chief Research scientist at the Technical research Centre of Finland (VTT. Her expertise is concerned with futures research, sustainable development, technology foresight, energy and environment,
and the future of communities. On these topics she has conducted several research projects and written research reports.
Sirkka Heinonen is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: sirkka. heinonen@utu. fi Ville Lauttama ki holds a Master's degree in Economics
and Business administration from the Turku School of economics and is currently preparing his Phd in Economic Sociology at the University of Turku.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 315 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 30 september 2004; accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping
and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms.
Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain
D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Emerging technology; Irreversibility; Technology assessment; Expectations; Agenda building 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.10.003 T Corresponding author. Tel.:++31 30 2537462. E-mail addresses: r. vanmerkerk@geo. uu. nl (R. O. van Merkerk) 8 h. vanlente@geo. uu. nl (H. van Lente.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1. Introduction Assessing emerging technologies is a necessary,
The preceding informal network was formed in 2001 and recently, in November 2003, it received a substantial funding of 95 Million Euro by the Dutch government,
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1095 2. Method:
In 1999 a new specialised journal, the Journal of Nanoparticle Research, was established. This indicates the crystallisation of a new scientific community.
because it R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1096 has changed the perception
or an industry (as in the case of chip manufacturing) should follow for a certain period (say, 10 years).
The second level refers to a 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
2000 2001 2002 Fig. 1. Number of times dnanotubet is mentioned in article titles (Picarta. 3 The fact that we use the emergence of this specialised journal for this paper is the fact that nanotubes is one of the major topics in this journal.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1097 technological field, with its dedicated journals, conferences and communities.
H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1098 3. Case: nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes Before explaining the details about nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes,
and large firms invested over $2 billion in nanotechnology worldwide in 2002 13. No single definition can be given for nanotechnology,
One of the first landmarks is the Nobel prize discovery of a new carbon molecule containing sixty carbon atoms (C60) in the shape of a ball in 1985 (also called a bucky ball) 15.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1099 other hand there are growing concerns about the development
In 2000, Rueckes et al. Charles Lieber's group, Harvard university, Cambridge, Massachusetts) 16 published the architecture (Fig. 5) of how to make these nonvolatile memories based on the suspended SWNT crossbar (proof of principle.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1100 Nantero (US Patent No. 20030165074.
G. Schmergel, T. Rueckes and B. M. Segal founded Nantero in 2000 (Rueckes being one of the inventors of the proof of principle.
With this strategy they have been successful in getting several Venture capital grants over the first few years of existence 19,20.
This research agenda shifted over the years towards the production capacity controlled growth and applications of nanotubes.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1101 However, there are other voices that agitate against this.
and SWNT) that is expected for the coming years. Arnall 13, page 14 states here (taking a market perspective:
However, the fact that nanotubes offer great promises for various industries is acknowledged. 3. 1. 2. Technological field After the discovery of the single-walled nanotube in 1993,
In 1998 Cees Dekker's group 31 at the Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) turned a nanotube into a transistor (the basic building block of computer chips.
However, the expectations are that commercialising this option still lies far ahead (at least 10 years.
In 1999, Jong-min Kim et al. at the Samsung Advanced Institute of technology in Suwon Fig. 6. bonq and boffq states of a suspended SWNT crossbar 16.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1102 (Korea) did just that.
In 2002, James Heath's group at the University of California (Los angeles) reported that guiding the growth with an electric field could solve the problem of growing straight nanotubes 25.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1103 reported the latter method in 2001 26.
however these expectations are expressed 2 years later, after the new scientific results, which were obtained in the meantime. At the market side, other dynamics are present.
Nantero was founded in 2000 and they received the first Venture capital grant in 2001 19. The fact that Nantero received this grant shows that the investors
based on their expectations, show confidence in a success of Nantero. In May 2003 a prototype of 10 Gb is ready
and produced by standard semiconductor processes 28. In September 2003 Nantero receives the second Venture capital grant 20.
In the same month Nantero shows compatibility with lithography equipment from ASML 18. In February 2004 Nantero 29 states they are on track for NRAM development.
Here we see that Nantero over the years has built on the expectations that nonvolatile memories will be commercialised soon.
These expectations were formulated in the following way. In 2002 Rueckes et al. 16 state: bplans for molecular electronics, may be realized soon.
Q In 2001 Nantero 19 states: bthe company expects to deliver a product that will replace all existing forms of memory.
Q In May 2003 Nantero 28 states: bcreating this enormous array of suspended nanotubes using standard semiconductor processes brings us much closer to our end goal of mass producing NRAM chips.
Q In September 2003 Nantero 28 states: buniversal memory has been a dream for the semiconductor industry for decades we fell that Nantero's innovative approach using carbon nanotubes
and a nanoelectromechanical design can make that dream a reality in near term. Q In 2004 Nantero 29 states:
bthe proprietary manufacturing approach will enable for the first time the ultra-large scale integration (ULSI) of carbon nanotube-based devices in a deep sub-micron semiconductor fabrication line.
Q Within these expectations we see a shift from discovery (2000), via a prototype (May 2003) to manufacturing a proprietary approach (2004).
Hence, the developments at Nantero show a clear way towards commercialisation. During these few years Nantero received a rather extensive media attention (37 articles in total) from technology as well as business journals.
This is a clear sign that the media see Nantero as a promising company to take nanotechnology to the market.
and especially the second round in 2003 is a sign that the investors expect Nantero to succeed,
Nantero has taken up this challenge since 2000. Subsequent results in basic research as well as from Nantero have reinforced the expectations.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1104 3. 2. Tracing agenda building
Some initiatives have started over the last few years; we will mention the three most striking ones.
which it hopes to bring before a United nations agency in 2004. This should create a new mechanism that will make it possible for the international community to monitor the development of new technologies whose introduction could affect (positively and/or negatively) human health
Cees Dekker's group at Delft University, showed in 1998 31 that a single semiconductor nanotube could be turned into a transistor.
and start to work on solving the problems at R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1105 hand.
Because not all problems were solved over the last years, Nantero adapted a (proprietary) hybrid solution that allows for some errors,
So, over the last few years some problems were solved and others were overcome by adapting the design.
For the coming years Nantero not only aims at getting their product to the market, but also improving the existing technology to achieve even higher densities of suspended crossbars,
as stated in May 2003 28: bthis process was used to make a 10 Gb array now,
Over the years two rounds of Venture capital were received and successful collaboration with ASML was established. In the coming years Nantero aims at getting their product to the market and to improve the existing technology.
Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Step by step the problems around producing predetermined nanotubes and applying them for nonvolatile memories are solved (straight growth and deposition).
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1106 These insights and empirical findings give the opportunity to trace emerging irreversibilities
The scientific community (related to the application of nanotubes in electronic devices) changed in the sense that since 1993 more and more attention was drawn to nanotubes.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1107 As mentioned in Section 2,
Technology assessment (TA) started in the late 1960s as an dearly warningt method 33, merely to inform parliaments about possible negative effects of new technologies.
During the 1980's, TA developed towards a policy instrument, where TA is used to support policy-making.
In the late 1980s the notion of constructive technology assessment (CTA) became apparent in Europe. Many different types of CTA exist depending on the audience, phase of technological development, etc.
but ceased to exist in 1995. R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1108 development of dusefult applications of technology, CTA
indirectly aims at influencing the technology in development via the involved actors. We think the tracing of emerging irreversibilities is an important next step in the development of TA,
Economy, Pinter, London, 1984, pp. 78 101.4 J. M. Utterback, Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1994.16 For example, one of the components
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Nantero Press release (September 2003. 19 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. announces $6mm in funding aims to rapidly develop nanotube-based universal memory.
Nantero Press release (October 2001. 20 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. announces $10. 5mm in funding developing nanotube-based nonvolatile RAM technology for licensing.
Nantero Press release (September 2003. 21 P. Ball, Roll up for the revolution, Nature 414 (2001)( November.
22 ETC group, The big down, Atomtech: Technologies Converging at the Nanoscale, 2003 (January. 23 P. G. Collins, P. Avouris, Nanotubes for electronics, Scientific American 283 (6)( 2000 (December)) 62 69.24 Cientifica:
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networks, Angewandte Chemie International Edition 41 (2)( 2002) 353 356.26 Y. Huang, X. Duan, Q. Wei, C. M. Lieber, Directed
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28 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. creates an array of ten billion nanotubes bits on single wafer standard semiconductor processes used.
Nantero Press release (May 2003. 29 Nantero, Nantero's Dr. Thomas Rueckes garners awards and acknowledges company on track for NRAM development.
Nantero Press release (February 2004. 30 ETC group, Playing god in the Galapagos, News Release (2004)( March), Issue 84.31 S. J. Tans, A r. M. Verschueren, C. Dekker, Room-temperature
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and reflexive anticipation: Using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: K. H. Sørensen, R. Williams (Eds.
Shaping technology, Guiding Policy: Concepts, Spaces and Tools, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, 2002, pp. 359 385.
Rutger van Merkerk is currently a Phd student (Copernicus Institute for Sustainability and Innovation, University of Utrecht,
From 1997 until 1999 he was research manager at KPMG Inspire Foundation, a think tank of the KPMG consulting firm,
H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1111
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