years

ART50.pdf

Linking territorial foresight and urban planning Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell and Leticia Redondo Abstract Purpose This article aims to show the opportunity

The oblivion of future studies in the urban planning field was denounced several years ago by practitioners and researchers (Isserman, 1985;

Wachs, 2001. Why do urban planners no longer think in visionary terms? Recent research in Spain (Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al.

2009-2011) has shown that most public agencies in charge of urban and regional planning, as well as private consultants conducting professional work in that field,

PAGE 316 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 316-335, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 DOI

favouring the use of quantitative forecasts, based on sophisticated algorithms and mathematical models (Hall, 1996; de Tera'n, 1996.

However, the profound socioeconomic changes experienced by most cities in the 1960's and 1970's produced gross mistakes in urban predictions.

Continuous failures in the use of forecasting methods damaged the reputation of urban planners and seemed to show the impossibility of predicting urban phenomena based on scientific rules and regular patterns.

In recent years, the pre-eminence of collaborative planning has added to the detriment of futures studies.

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 317 3. The new concept of territorial foresight Three arguments are given to support the use of futures studies.

Second, the social debate inherent to urban planning and the need for stakeholder collaboration can be facilitated through a mutually beneficial symbiosis between futures studies and urban planning (Cole, 2001.

Third, there is a tight relationship between futures studies and strategic planning (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2011. The need to think about the future

''According to several authors (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2006; Gavigan and Scapolo, 2001), territorial foresight can be defined as a systematic, participatory,

future intelligence gathering and vision-building process aimed at present-day decision making and mobilising joint initiatives in the urban and territorial realm.

Figure 1 Conceptual framework for urban planning PAGE 318 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. Participation.

As a matter of fact, in the last few years territorial foresight has gathered increasing attention from various European public bodies.

The European commission's Foresight for Regional development Network (2001) published A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, which documented nine regional foresight exercises.

2001). ) The European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007) has published also the findings of its project‘‘Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe'',in

which three spatial scenarios were set out for the horizon 2030 (European foresight Platform, 20115). Finally, the European foresight Platform, another European commission funded body, has made an intense effort to compile several regional foresight exercises within its Knowledge sharing Platform (European foresight Platform, 2011.

Despite the well-deserved interest and merit of the previous references, specialized literature still shows a substantial divorce between the scope and content of foresight exercises and the specific needs of urban planning.

On the one hand, most foresight exercises by social scientists are usually based on general narratives that are intellectually stimulating but rarely of much help to the physical planner for making decisions in the urban realm.

The proposed approach shows the way that a future urban vision can be VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 319 translated into practical, measurable strategies to guide territorial development in the long term.

and urban planning PAGE 320 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 because all the elements are used in an articulated and coherent way, with a foresight exercise as a solid starting point.

which social attitudes towards sustainable development were explored in the Spanish context for the horizon 2025 (Fundacio'n OPTI, 2007).

Since the Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as‘‘the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs''(World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),

this concept has gained universal acceptance by the general public, socioeconomic agents and politicians (United nations, 1992;

World Summit for Social development, 1995; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2001. However, the reciprocal relations that may develop between the sustainable development paradigm

and the general behaviour of society have not been assessed rigorously. The lack of studies about this issue is primarily due to two major difficulties:

Scenario design is a foresight technique that has been used widely and documented (Godet, 1993; van der Heijden, 1996;

Schwartz, 1991. It is eminently qualitative, it combines intuition and rational analysis, and it requires the collaboration of a group of experts.

For most foresight practitioners, scenario development is the archetypal product of future studies because it is profoundly creative and capable of handling uncertainty.

plausible representation of the alternative futures into which the SD concept may evolve by the year 2025.

green paradigm (circa 2025. This scenario takes place when there is both a proactive and a favourable response by public and private agents to SD and also an abundance of all types of resources required to achieve sustainable development.

The VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 321‘‘green paradigm''is the manifestation of an environmentally aware society, in

and diversified than 20 years ago when it was dominated by the construction and tourism sectors.

predator development (circa 2025. This scenario occurs when resources of all types are abundant, but at the same time public and private agents have either a slow or a passive reaction to sustainability challenges.‘‘

back to basics (circa 2025. In this scenario, there is a significant shortage of all resource types due to a prolonged recession,

For several Figure 3 Future scenarios for sustainable development PAGE 322 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 years

is used to guide the implications analysis. Functional implications of Scenario A (2025). The‘‘green paradigm''scenario reflects a proactive social response to SD

and wish to have a voice of their Figure 4 Scenario A‘‘green paradigm''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 323 own in the planning process.

Functional implications of Scenario B (2025. The‘‘predator development''scenario evolves when resources are abundant,

Figure 5 Scenario B‘‘predator development''PAGE 324 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Conditions inherent to Scenario B favour a local governance model that is opaque

Functional implications of Scenario C (2025. The‘‘back to basics''scenario takes place when economic and environmental crises are recurrent,

its major drawback Figure 6 Scenario C‘‘back to basics''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 325 being the threat of majorities imposing decisions on minority

2005; Meadows, 1998) is established to assess the potential impact of each future scenario on urban development patterns (see Table I). A base-line scenario (2010) is estimated,

using current statistics provided by various public sources. Projections for the year 2025 are displayed using diverse tools and analysis methods.

The ultimate purpose of these parameters is to translate functional implications into quantitative values, so that their systematic tracking can lead to corrective measures. 4. 4 Step 4:

Figure 7 shows the current physical status (2010) of the study area, composed of four municipalities Cercedilla, Becerril de la Sierra, El Boalo and Navacerrada with 21,500

Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025. The predominant philosophy of the‘‘green paradigm''scenario will be to thrive in economic and social terms with lower consumption of energy, water and natural resources.

Spatial implications of Scenario B (2025. In the‘‘predator development''scenario, population growth coupled with strong economic development

making it PAGE 326 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Table I Main scenarios indicators 2025 Indicators Measurement unit 2010 Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Analytical methods and tools used for estimating indicators Society Population growth K

hab(%annual) 0. 98 Medium-low 0. 6 High-medium 1. 6 Negative 20.5 Population projections Urban density inhab/km2 135

Variation in population over a year, expressed as a percentage of the difference of the number of individuals in the total population at the beginning of that period Urban density.

Difference of immigrants and emigrants of an area in a year divided per 1, 000 inhabitants (considered on midterm population) Dependency ratio.

Megawatts hour of electricity per inhabitant consumed in a year Economic growth. Increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or other measures of aggregate income, typically reported as the annual rate of change in real GDP Environment Selective collection of solid waste.

Area of primary-production land needed to support the resource use of the dwellers on urban land VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 327 difficult to decouple the increasing environmental impact.

Spatial implications of Scenario C (2025. In the‘‘back to basics''scenario, sustainable development will be imperative due to the lack of energy resources and low economic activity.

Figure 7 Current spatial scenario (2010) PAGE 328 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. 5 Step 5:

Figure 8 Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 329 B Build a new economic model that is environment-friendly

Figure 9 Spatial implications of Scenario B (2025) PAGE 330 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 B Pursue a massive incorporation of new technologies into public administration to improve

Figure 10 Spatial implications of Scenario C (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 331 5. Applied approach to territorial foresight The proposed method to reconcile territorial

foresight with urban planning was developed over a five-year period. Due to the scarcity of research resources and the complexity of the topic, progress had to be attained through a slow, piecemeal effort in different research projects and academic activities.

2009-2011. Nearly 20 personal interviews were made with planning practitioners and public officials in Spain.

and their perceived barriers to the implementation of these studies. 2. Scenarios regarding social attitudes towards sustainable development were adopted from the foresight exercise carried out by Fundacio'n OPTI in 2007.

2009 More than 40 local stakeholders participated in the study through eight thematic groups and determined the scenario implications for the city's future development.

2007). ) This project explored development trends in the metropolitan peripheries of Madrid, paying special attention to environmentally sensitive areas in the Guadarrama mountain range.

and experience gathered over the last five years. These findings are grouped into two sets. The first group of findings relate to the advisability of changing the Spanish urban development model

PAGE 332 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 B All public administrations European, national regional and local will have to be responsible

References Asociacio'n Plan Estrate'gico de Burgos (2009),‘Estudio de prospectiva territorial para la Ciudad de Burgos, unpublished study'',Asociacio

Cole, S. 2001),‘Dare to dream: bringing futures into planning'',American Planning Association Journal, Vol. 67 No. 4, pp. 372-83. de Tera'n, F. 1996),‘Evolucio'n del planeamiento urbani

'stico (1846-1996)''Ciudad y Territorio Estudios Territoriales, Nos 107-108, pp. 167-84. European foresight Platform (2011),‘Foresight brief‘Knowledge sharing Platform'''available at:

www. foresightplatform. eu (accessed 14 july 2011. European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007), Scenarios on the Territorial Future of Europe, ESPON, Belgium.

Ferna'ndez Gu ell, J. M. 2006), Planificacio'n estrate'gica de ciudades: Nuevos instrumentos y procesos, Editorial Reverte',Barcelona.

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 333 Ferna'ndez Gu ell, J. M. 2011),‘Recuperacio'n de los estudios del futuro

a trave's de la prospectiva territorial'',Ciudad y Territorio Estudios Territoriales, No. 167, pp. 11-32.

Ferna'ndez Gu ell, J. M. et al. 2007),‘Sostenibilidad de las periferias metropolitanas de la Comunidad de Madrid'',Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid, Madrid, research project.

Ferna'ndez Gu ell, J. M. et al. 2009-2011),‘Oportunidad y viabilidad de la prospectiva en el planeamiento urbano y territorial'',Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid, Madrid

, research project in progress. Foresight for Regional development Network (2001), Practical Guide to Regional foresight, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Sevilla.

Forlearn Online Guide (n d.),available at: http://forlearn. jrc. ec. europa. eu/guide (accessed 16 september 2011.

Fundacio'n OPTI (2007), Estudio de prospectiva sobre el comportamiento social ante el desarrollo sostenible, Fundacio'n OPTI, Madrid.

Gavigan, J. P. and Scapolo, F. 2001),‘La prospectiva y la visio'n del desarrollo regional a largo plazo'',The IPTS Report, 56, July

, pp. 22-33. Godet, M. 1993), From Anticipation to Action A Handbook of Strategic Prospective, UNESCO, Paris. Hall, P. 1996), Cities of Tomorrow, updated ed.,Blackwell, London.

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (2001),‘Special issue on foresight and regional development'',The IPTS Report No. 59, pp. 1-47.

Isserman, A m. 1985),‘Dare to plan: an essay on the role of the future in planning practice and education'',Town planning Review, Vol. 56 No. 4, pp. 483-91.

Kates, R. W.,Parris, T. M. and Leiserowitz, A a. 2005),‘What is sustainable development? Goals, indicators, values,

and practice'',Environment, Vol. 47 No. 3, pp. 8-21. Meadows, D. 1998), Indicators and Information systems for Sustainable development, The Sustainability Institute, Balaton Group, Montpelier, VT.

Millennium Project (n d.),available at: www. millennium-project. org (accessed 16 september 2011. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2001), Les lignes directrices du CAD Strate'gies de de'veloppement durable, Organisation for Economic Co

-operation and Development, Paris. Schwartz, P. 1991), The Art of the Long View, Doubleday Currency, New york, NY.

United nations (1992),‘Agenda 21 Report'',United nations Conference on Environment and Development, 3-14 june, Ri'o de Janeiro. van der Heijden, K. 1996), Scenarios:

The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, London. Wachs, M. 2001),‘Forecasting versus envisioning: a new window on the future'',American Planning Association Journal, Vol. 67 No. 4, pp. 367-72.

World Commission on Environment and Development (1987), Our Common Future, Oxford university Press, Oxford. World Summit for Social development (1995), Declaration and Programme of Action, World Summit for Social development, Copenhagen.

About the authors Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell is an Architect and Urban Planner, Deputy Director of the Urban and Regional planning Department,

and a Member of the Research group GIAUÞS, based at the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid.

He has a Bachelor's degree in Architecture from the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid as well as a Master's and a Phd in Urban and Regional planning from Texas A&m University.

He was a Senior Manager of Strategic Services at Andersen consulting (1988-1998) and a Senior Partner at Gu ell & Partners Consulting (1998-2005.

Presently, he is a full-time Professor at the Urban and Regional planning Department of Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid and foresight advisor at Fundacio'n OPTI.

He has been a consultant for the European commission, the PAGE 334 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Inter-American Development Bank and the United nations Industrial Development Organization.

In 2010 she started to work as a researcher in the field of futures studies, focusing on the development of an innovative foresight approach to identify major trends

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 335 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:

ART51.pdf

looking solely to the immediate past in order PAGE 336 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 336-351, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,

As Johnston (2008) noted, the objective of the first of these seminars‘‘was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice between technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.''

and social needs on the other''(Cagnin and Keenan, 2008), acknowledging thus the co-evolution of science and technology (S&t) together with society in their approach and work.

and shape technological futures (Rader and Porter, 2008). In addition, this particular community of scholars and practitioners has managed also to provide a collective definition of FTA,

In this respect, Saritas (2011) comments that‘‘a s the complexity of societies has increased, the scope of FTA ACTIVITIES has widened to cover a wide variety of issues.

''Furthermore, the number of studies focused on the connection between FTA and the field of social sciences and humanities has increased substantially (Barre'and Keenan, 2008.

Cagnin and Keenan (2008) have called attention to the need for a wider examination of FTA TOOLS and approaches.

which VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 337 will in turn improve the prospects for evaluating processes and outcomes''(Cagnin and Keenan,

2008). ) Despite these important developments and recommendations, little has been said about the interlinkages between Law and FTA.

In a rather unusual initiative within the general framework of legal research, The hague Institute for the Internationalisation of Law (Hiil) began in 2010‘‘a unique forward-looking exercise in the field of law:

2011) 7. As stated by its organizers and promoters, the project‘‘is based on the premise that prospective thinking about law is not only desirable

and legal systems do not become obsolete, ineffective or unjust''(HIIL, 2011). This programme (also denominated as The Law of the Future project LOTF) ventured into the study of the future by posing one fundamental question to the legal community of scholars and practitioners:‘‘

‘‘how will law evolve in the next twenty years?''''In order to attain a response (or several of them),

which it later designed a number of alternatives visions of Law in 2030. This project, most welcome for its originality

2011). ) The objective of the think pieces was to fuel the discussion and provide the necessary material and input for the scenario construction process.

some of them, mind shattering) descriptions of the major forthcoming developments and PAGE 338 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 changes that the various branches

2006), the objective of these think pieces was to collect, within a legal context, a range of varied ideas about the future.

Scenario planning law scenarios for 2030. Based on the analysis of the various expert think pieces submitted,

the continuous internationalisation of VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 339 rules and institutions or its stagnation or reverse;

or scenarios for 2030 (described along with their own basic characteristics) 13:1. The Global Constitutionalism scenario:

if'questions''HIIL, 2011). To conclude, it is important to note that, as an ongoing and dynamic project, the objective of the LOTF is to further develop these scenarios,

integrated picture and multiple perspectives on the hard problems we are facing''(Helbing, 2011). As Helbing (2011) explains,

the ultimate goal of Futurict‘‘is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems,..

''PAGE 340 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 While the‘‘Living Earth Simulator''will‘‘require the development of interactive decentralized supercomputing that scales up to global level systems

employing a variety of perspectives and methods''(Helbing, 2011); the‘‘Planetary Nervous system''will work as global sensor network,

i e. to create a greater awareness of the possible implications of human-decision making''(Helbing, 2011).

but also different financial architectures or voting systems''(Helbing, 2011). This platform will power interactive observatories, which will be in charge of detecting

In other words, the reactive and responsive approaches that traditionally characterised the work of police VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 341 forces has been complemented with a research-based approach that strives to detect

and year-to date reports all focus on events in the past. Even alerts focus almost exclusively on incidents that occurred in the past,

and how to effectively deploy resources in front of crime, thereby changing outcomes (Beck, 2009). Predictive policing constitutes the next step in intelligence-led policing (ILP) 16,

while emphasizing the role of analysis in tactical and strategic planning (Beck, 2009). Based on comprehensive computer statistics, technology has allowed the law enforcement community to rapidly identify

a computerized crime mapping system developed by NYPD in 1993 and now used by police departments nationwide.

2005). ) As Beck (2009) explains,‘‘b y bringing all crime and arrest data together by category and neighbourhood,

Compstat revolutionized policing, enabling officers to focus their efforts in problem areas, armed with real-time information, accurate intelligence, rapid deployment of resources, individual accountability,

and relentless follow-up''(Beck, 2009) 17. It is important to bear inmind that, contrary to what some fictional movies may lead one to think (e g. the 2002 movie Minority report,

which portrays a future where criminals are caught before they commit their crimes, www. imdb. com/title/tt0181689),

As explained by Beck (2009: Predictive policing, like any public safety resource or tool, must be used legally and ethically.

back in 1933 and PAGE 342 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 in a BBC broadcast program, underlined the need for professors of foresight,

but not one of the future''(Miles and Keenan, 2003). Along these lines, I believe that Law schools would very much enrich their programs by creating the post for Professors of Legal Foresight

and visions will be very much the same as today's''(Rader and Porter, 2008). Regarding specific FTA TOOLS, survey approaches such as the Delphi methodology used by the LOFT project carry specific benefits to Law.

rather than as a claim to know the future''(HIIL, 2011). Furthermore, the methodological integration of scenario planning with other FTA TOOLS also promises to bring important benefits to the study, drafting and enforcement of law.

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 343 The application of modelling techniques to the legal domain represents a step further in the use of ICT, Artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced

As Blind (2006) observes, this growing interest reflects a series of recent developments: First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition, policy-makers involved in regulatory policies are being held more accountable for the significant economic resources,

as well as the political capital invested in regulatory management systems PAGE 344 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 now established in most OECD countries.

case studies and surveys as the most commonly used approaches (Blind, 2006), FTA would add to this methodological list other approaches that could render the evaluation of current laws,

as requested for instance in the European union (European commission, 2002), as well as the performance of ex post evaluation of regulations (which is part of the progress development of regulatory policies,

complementing ex ante evaluations (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2003. Ex ante impact assessment is required to check all possible impact dimensions

and monitoring their performance (i e. data gathering and reporting strategies) and practices to review existing regulations (Blind, 2006).

to analyse and test the potential impacts of different (and forthcoming) hypothetical VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 345 laws, contributing to the modernisation of current legislative processes;

As Staton (2008) argues: The future is the site of conflicting and competing discourses and ideologies,

PAGE 346 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. 2. 3 The incorporation of FTA quantitative approaches to law.

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 347 In this way, and as explained in the last section of the article,

legislative drafting and law enforcement. 2. For a historical review of the development of Future-oriented technology analysis, see Johnston (2008).

and foresight, see Rader and Porter (2008). For the distinction between technology assessment, foresight and technology forecasting made by the European Science

and Technology observatory Network (ESTO), see Rader (2001). The latter was revised, moreover in Rader (2001, p. 4);

and revised in Tu bke et al. 2001): ) JRC-IPTS. 4. These seminars, moreover, have given way to the publication of a series of various journal editions,

such as the special editions of Technological forecasting and Social Change vol. 75 (4); Technological Analysis and Strategic management vol. 20 (3;

2008). ) 5. Although not referring specifically to Law, but to the broader term of regulatory policies, it is important to mention the paper of Knut Blind:

Blind (2006..The paper presents and develops three methodological approaches (indicator-based approaches, surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight,

and prioritizing the future areas of regulation. 6. These were the cases of the future-oriented technology assessment exercises conducted during the period 1974-1995 by the US Office of Technology assessment (OTA).

as noted by Johnston (2008)‘‘served to inform Congressional interests as they considered legislative policy options''.

Recurring again to Johnston's (2008) observations, ‘‘t he studies for the STOA panel of the European parliament have served to pinpoint critical aspects of technologies and their application

but has moved increasingly towards providing knowledge suitable for actively shaping technology'',in Rader and Porter (2008).

PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,

2011). ) 10. For a comprehensive guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used, see Bo rjeson et al.

2006). ) 11. The SWAMI project (Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence) aimed to identify

2008). ) 12. The FIDIS project (Future of Identity in the Information society) aimed to shape the requirements for the future management of identity in the European Information society (EIS)

2009). ) 13. For a detailed analysis of those trends, uncertainties, scenarios (including its likely triggers),

see HIIL, 2011. Law Scenarios to 2030. Signposting the legal space of the future. 14.

A concrete example of a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA, namely between scenario and modelling analysis, can be found in the so-called International Futures (IFS.‘‘

2011). ) 15. For an overview of data mining technologies and their use for competitive advantages, see Porter and Cunningham (2005.

16. For an overview of the origins of intelligence-led policing, together with a detailed analysis of its main concepts,

processes and practice, see Ratcliffe (2008). 17. For more information on the Compstat, see Delorenzi et al.

2006). ) 18. For two views sustaining the impossibility to anticipate the future, see Staton (2008);

and Tuomi (2011. 19. For an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with the combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in the field of FTA,

along with a proposal for a way to overcome those barriers, see Haegeman et al. 2011). ) For a discussion of how expert quantitative and qualitative information may be joined coherently,

see Loveridge and Saritas (2011). 20. For two views sustaining the impossibility to anticipate the future,

see Staton (2008); and Tuomi (2011. Regarding the latter paper, Tuomi reconfirms the thesis of the unpredictability of the future,

arguing that foresight has missed systematically important future developments due to its reliance on categorizations and measurement systems optimized for the Industrial Age models of production.

According to the author, foresight needs a paradigm shift in the Knowledge society, overcoming the epistemic models of FTA that inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past,

''See de Smedt (2010. 22. The original phrase is in French:‘‘‘‘L'ide'e de l'avenir, grosse d'une infinite'de possible, est donc plus fe'conde que l'avenir

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 349 References Barre',R. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Revisiting foresight rationales:

Beck, C. 2009),‘Predictive policing: what can we learn fromwal-Mart and Amazon about fighting crime in a recession?''

France, Paris. Blind, K. 2006),‘Regulatory foresight: methodologies and selected applications'',paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:

Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:

Burger, W. E. 1977),‘Agenda for 2000 AD: a need for systematic anticipation, address delivered at the National Conference on the Causes of Popular Dissatisfaction with the Administration of Justice, St paul, MN, April 1976'',New york state Bar Journal, p. 49.

Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Positioning future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:

Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds)( 2008), Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. de Smedt, P. 2010),‘The use of impact assessment tools to support sustainable policy objectives in Europe'',Ecology and Society, Vol. 15 No. 4

, p. 30. Delorenzi, D.,Shane, J. M. S. and Amendola, K. L. 2006),‘The compstat process:

managing performance on the pathway to leadership'',The Police chief Magazine, Vol. 73, pp. 34-40.

European commission (2002), European Governance: Better Lawmaking, COM (2002) 275 Final, European commission, Brussels. Gasco'n, G. 2005),‘Compstat Plus:

in depth auditing, mentorship, close collaboration'',The Police chief Magazine, Vol. 72, pp. 34-43. Haegeman, K.,Scapolo, F.,Ricci, A.,Marinelli, E. and Skolov, A. 2011),‘Premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference

on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville. Helbing, D. 2011), The Futurict knowledge accelerator to explore and manage our future, available at:

www. futurict. ethz. ch/data/Whatfuturictwilldo4media. pdf HIIL (2011),‘Law scenarios to 2030. Signposting the legal space of the future'',available at:

www. lawofthefuture. org/ul/cms/fck-uploaded/documents/LOTFLSTO2030COMPLETE041011DEF1. pdf Hughes, B b.,Moyer, J. D. and Rothman,

D. S. 2011),‘Using the international futures (IFS) model for scenario analysis: combining quantitative and qualitative methods,

Johnston, R. 2008),‘Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:

Kahn, H. and Wiener, A j. 1967), The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on The next Thirty-Three Years, Macmillan, New york, NY.

Loveridge, D. and Saritas, O. 2011),‘Combining quantitative and qualitative in FTA: rediscovery or something new?''

''a paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville. Miles, I. and Keenan, M. 2003),‘Two and a half cycles of foresight in the UK'',Technikfolgenabscha tzung Theorie und Praxis, Vol. 12, pp. 41-9. PAGE

350 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Muller, S.,Zouridis, S.,Frishman, M. and Kistemaker, L. Eds)( 2011), The Law of the Future and the Future of Law

, Torkel Opsahl Academic Publishers, Oslo. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2003),‘Regulatory performance:

ex post evaluation of regulatory policies'',Proceedings of the OECD Expert Meeting, September, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Porter, A l. and Cunningham, S w. 2005

), Tech Mining: Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ. Rader, M. 2001),‘Monitoring of technology assessment activities'',report by the European Science and Technology observatory Network, Seville.

Rader, M. and Porter, A l. 2008),‘Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R

. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. Rannenberg, K.,Royer, D. and Deuker, A. 2009), The Future of Identity in the Information society:

Challenges and Opportunities, Springer, Berlin. Ratcliffe, J. 2008), Intelligence-led Policing, Willan, Cullompton. Saritas, O. 2011),‘Systemic foresight methodology'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.

Staton, M. 2008),‘Monstrous foresight'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:

Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. Tu bke, A.,Ducatel, K.,Gavigan, J. P. and Moncada, P. Eds)( 2001), Strategic policy Intelligence:

Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives, S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, available at: http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/eur20137en. pdf Tuomi,

I. 2011),‘Foresight in an unpredictable world'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.

Wright, D.,Gutwirth, S.,Friedewald, M.,Vildjiounaite, E. and Punie, Y. Eds)( 2008), Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence, Springer, Dordrecht.

About the author Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade is a Scientific Officer at the Information society Unit of the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.

In 2009 he co-edited and published Law and Technology: Looking into the Future Selected Essays.

norberto. andrade@ec. europa. euvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 351 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:

< Back - Next >