years

ART6.pdf

. 36 40, D-76021 Karlsruhe, Germany Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 30 september 2004;

accepted 2 october 2004 Abstract Technology assessment reflecting on R&d and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research

while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (N10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socioeconomic context of a technical product

in order to be comprehensive, in the case of nanotechnology a preparing step is necessary which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media.

D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Science and technology roadmapping; Technology assessment; Nanotechnology 1. Introduction Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for dclassicalt technology assessment (TA.

Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 other hand, decision support and policy making require information on the potential consequences of the introduction of new technologies before they are implemented widely,

Over the last years, the landscape for Technology assessment has changed significantly. TA has started with the investigation of large complex technologies (conventional or nuclear energy technologies, aerospace technologies...

During the last years, the technological focus has shifted somewhat towards rather small, widely distributed (some would say decentralised) technologies where the impacts arise rather from a single component itself but from the large number of components and their widespread application,

In the last years, in many countries due to economic and social pressures there is a shift of focus towards technologies that stimulate

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1113 Most funding organisations or contract awarders require valid, scientifically sound, knowledge-based, often quantitative,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1114 ordinated by the Europa ische Akademie zur Erforschung von Folgen wissenschaftlich-technischer Entwicklungen Bad

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1115 considered as the most important bridge between basic research and marketable products and processes.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1116 The term droadmapt is used widely, starting from graphical representations of technology development paths and their application environments up to detailed and ambitious

and apply technology roadmapping in the mid-1980s. It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.

To our knowledge, the term dscience roadmapt has been proposed first by Robert Galvin in a 1998 article in Science 9. Kostoff and Schaller without any explicit justification dreinteggrated both types.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1117 be as specific and reliable as necessary to be the basis for a valid and sound technology assessment

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1118 Besides this, a successful implementation of this concept could also help to overcome some of the argumentative asymmetries that can be found in many debates about chances

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1119 purposes, and what further benefits of the roadmapping process beyond structuring the field of nanotechnology can be expected. 5. Summary

and outlook The landscape for Technology assessment has changed over the last few years. Political priorities are altering

Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer Heidelberg, New york, 2004. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1120 2 T. Fleischer, A. Grunwald, Technikgestaltung fu r mehr Nachhaltigkeit Anforderungen an die Technikfolgenabscha

tzung, in: A. Grunwald (Ed.),Technikgestaltung fu r eine nachhaltige Entwicklung Von der Konzeption zur Umsetzung, Edition Sigma, Berlin, 2002.3 H. Paschen, C

Manage. 48 (2)( 2001) 132 143.7 O. Da Costa, M. Boden, Y. Punie, M. Zappacosta, Science and technology roadmapping:

from industry to public policy, IPTS Report 73 (2003. 8 J. D. Linton, S. T. Walsh, Introduction.

Change 71 (1 2)( 2004) 1 3. 9 R. Galvin, Science roadmaps, Science 280 (5365)( 1998) 803.10 A. Grunwald, Technikfolgenabscha tzung eine

Change 71 (1/2)( 2004) 161 185.12 S. Walsh, J. Elders, International Roadmap on MEMS, Microsystems, Micromachining and Top Down Nanotechnology, MANCEF, Naples

mstnews 5, 2003, pp. 42 44.15 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods, Technol.

Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303. Torsten Fleischer has a background in physics. After serving as a project manager for several technology assessment studies for the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany,

After receiving a Phd from the University of Heidelberg in 1995, he worked as researcher at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Stuttgart.

Between 1997 and 2002 he was a member of the scientific staff of the Europa ische Akademie Gmbh where he managed several TA-projects

Since 2003 he is a member of the scientific staff and since February 2004 deputy head of the Institute for Technology assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) at the Research centre Karlsruhe.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1121

ART64.pdf

This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 04:57 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:

1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:

28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Karel Haegeman, K. Matthias Weber & Totti Könnölä (2012) Preparing for grand challenges:

the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 729-734, DOI:

Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www. tandfonline. com/page/termsanndconditions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Technology analysis & Strategic management Vol. 24

and systemic changes A series of conferences on future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) has been organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre over the past years.

The fourth editiio (2011) of the International Seville Conference on Future-Orientedtechnologyanalysis (FTA) focused its attention on processes of transformative change in response to Grand Societal Challennges

Although earlier conferences had focused in a rather self-reflexive manner on future perspectives for FTA (2004 and the impact of fta on decision-making (2006,2008),

shaping and defining research and innovation agendas (2011 FTA Conference Scientific Committee. 1 An even more basic question raised during the conference relates to

and today's ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715475 http://www. tandfonline. com

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 730 Editorial information era will be followed by a molecular era,

which aims to create transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures (Inayatullah 1998). 3 Other examples are immersive decision theatres (offering a virtual environment facility to visualise output of predictive and scenario-based models with the aim to support decision-making (Edsall and Larson

2006) 4), transformational narratives5 and Integral Foresight methodologies. The latter introduces Integral Philosophy into foresight, based on the argument that the answers required today cannot,

in principle, be found in what Slaughter (2008) calls‘problem-oriented'futures (i e. conventional thinking), and thus requires a new approach making use of integral ideas.

and Scapolo (2012) give some responses to these new demands on FTA. They pose a tentative claim that‘FTA

With a similar line of thought in his keynote at the 2011 FTA Conference, Ollila (2011) from Nokia focused on the future challenges for innovation policy as resulting in particcula from global economic developments.

and what their potential and limitations Are downloaded in by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 731 addressing Grand challenges.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 732 Editorial Should a firm match its foresight approach with the types of uncertainty it faces?

Stronger emphasis on creativity and exploration of truly Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 733 alternative future developments are called for to be prepared better to address both the existing Grand challenges

Inayatullah (1998) argues that, ‘the challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down the layers of analysis

Denning (2005) on the use of narrative tools in combination with strategic analysis for addressing transformational innovation.

and F. Scapolo. 2012. The role of FTA in responding to Grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy?

Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 135 9. Denning, S. 2005. Transformational innovation: A journey by narrative.

and K. L. Larson. 2006. Decision-making in a virtual environment: Effectiveness of a semi-immersive Decision Theater in understanding

and assessing human environment interactions. http://www. cartogis. org/docs/proceedings/2006/edsall larson. pdf (accessed 6 august 2012).

Feedback on the 2011 international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis. IPTS internal note. Inayatullah, S. 1998.

Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method. Futures 30, no. 8: 815 29. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 734 Editorial Linstone, H. A. 2011a.

Three eras of technology foresight, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011

accessed 6 august 2012. Linstone, H. A. 2011b. Three eras of technology foresight. Technovation 31, nos. 2 3: 69 76.

Ollila, J. 2011. The innovation policy challenge, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/JO

%202011. ppt (accessed 6 august 2012. Slaughter, R. A. 2008. Integral futures methodologies. Futures 40, no. 2: 103 8. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014

ART65.pdf

This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 04:52 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:

http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Foresight in an unpredictable world Ilkka Tuomi a a Meaning Processing Ltd.

28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Ilkka Tuomi (2012) Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 735-751, DOI:

10.1080/09537325.2012.715476 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715476 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.

ilkka. tuomi@meaningprocessing. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715476

http://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 736 I. Tuomi are active generators of novelty

At least since the 1970s it has been understood well that even when the world unfolds in a completely deterministic fashion under well-known natural laws,

Haken 1981. For all that we know, physical nature can be indeterminate. Social scientists (Goffman 1959;

Giddens 1984; Luhmann 1990; Beck, Giddens, and Lash 1994) have emphasised further the point that reflexivity in thought

and action creates a delicate balance between predictability and unpredictability in social systems and interactions. As soon as we have an explicit theory of human or social behaviour,

it influences the way we think and live, thus, in general, making the theory obsolete and prediction futile.

which in competitive markets remains the only source of profits. 1 Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 737 Epistemic uncertainty Integrating the numerous extant typologies

2003) distinguished two sources of uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty, according to these authors, is uncertainty due to the imperfection of our knowledge,

Following van Asselt and Rotmans (2002), they characterised variability uncertainty as‘ontological uncertainty'.'2 The ontological uncertainty of van Asselt and Rotmans and Walker et al. is about uncertainty of attributes associated with given objects.

The nature of the beast Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 738

For example, the idea that radical innovations emerge as‘hopeful monstrosities'that only gradually realise their true promise (Tushman and Anderson 1986;

Mokyr 1990, chap. 11; Bower and Christensen 1995) assumes that we know the dimensions on which we will measure their‘beastliness'at the point of their emergence.

In practice, such‘ugly ducklings'of evolution can be defined as ugly ducklings only retrospectively, when we already know that they are not (Tuomi 2002;

Taleb 2007. In contrast to this biblical ontological model, below we adopt a model of constant creation that relies on a different ontology.

In this model, innovation occurs when social practice changes. The history of innovations and technical change shows that‘heroic innovators'are located often in the downstream.

when a potential user group finds a meaningful way to integrate latent innovative opportunities in the current social practice (Tuomi 2002).

In models that emphasise the role of social practices and social interaction as the key loci of innovation (Engel 1997;

Brown and Duguid 2000; Tuomi 2002; Oudshoorn and Pinch 2003), downstream innovators also include creative members of communities of practice.

For example, in the multifocal model of Tuomi (2002), new technical functionalities and propensities are thrown in effect from the‘upstream'to a‘downstream'field of interacting social practices,

and new user groups and new uses mutually construct each other. Innovation and social learning in the context of the local downstream systems of meaning then become key drivers for the evolution of technology.

This view allows for the fact that some innovations are more radical and revolutionary than others.

and their realisation requires power struggles (Hughes 1983; Callon, Law, and Rip 1986; Bijker, Hughes, and Pinch 1987;

Latour 1996) as well as new world views, social arrangements, and systems of categorisation (Schon 1963; Fleck 1979;

Dosi 1982; Perez 1985; Garud and Rappa 1994; Bowker and Star 1999; Geels 2005. It is,

however, impossible to categorise a particular innovation based on the characteristics of a technical artefact before it is used.

The proper unit of analysis of innovation is thus‘innovation-in use'.'The same artefact Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 739 can be used for many different purposes in many different social practices, each with its own developmental trajectories.

This leads to a relational epistemology that is structurally different from the traditional objectivistic and empiristic models of epistemology.

It also shifts the locus of innovation from the‘upstream'to the‘downstream'.'A practical consequence of this relocation of locus of innovation to the downstream is that human upstream inventors rarely know,

or can know, what their inventions will be. The dominant constraints and resources for innovation are often far beyond the reach

and control of heroic upstream creators. Innovations become real in the context of use, and this requires stocks of knowledge

and systems of meaning that are located in communities of users and social practice. The true nature of the beast is revealed only when someone domesticates it.

Bell 1876) As Fischer (1992) has documented in detail, for many decades after the telephone was invented, itwas marketed mainly for business use.

According to Bergson (1983),‘they say the same thing in their respective languages, because they respond to the same need'(45).

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 740 I. Tuomi In Bergson's analysis,

stories of heroic innovators emerge telling howsms functionalitywas devised by clever engineers in the GSM standardisation groups in the mid-1980s.3 Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable

In practice, we create imaginations (Rubin 1998; Miller 2007) and expectations (Borup et al. 2006) that provide us temporary stepping stones on the way ahead.

We may illustrate the expansionary character of this process using alpinism as a metaphor. When a mountaineer climbs a mountain face, at each hold,

At the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 742 I. Tuomi level of operations, progress, in turn,

Activities, thus, can be associated with an underlyyin thought community (Fleck 1979), community of practice (Brownand Duguid 1991;

Lave and Wenger 1991), and community of practitioners (Schön 1983; Constant 1987) and with specialised systems of knowledge and meaning (Polanyi 1998;

Knorr Cetina 1999. In practice, the upward movement of most mountaineers does not occur in an inert external environment.

The environment is rarely a static result of sedimentation, and sometimes mountains feel like anthills under construction.

As many authors (Haldane 1931; Whitehead 1978; Maturana andvarela 1980; Lewontin 1983; Varela, Thompson, and Rosch 1991;

Nishida 2012) have emphasissed the environment subject distinction fails to account for the mutual co-determination

and co-evolution of living beings and their environments. Yet, the movement towards future occurs in a context that can often be taken to be static in relation to the time scale of present action.

In creative evolution, at each horizon of action, we rely on a temporary blueprint of the world.

This is another reason for why we need to split the élan into multiple parallel processes that occur in different time scales.

In their original depiction of natural drift, Maturana and Varela (1988, chap. 5) described the process of evolution using a metaphor of water drops rolling down from the top of a mountain.

the speculative profit opportunities of Knight or the idiosyncratic individual interests of Hayek and the more collective tacit understandings of progress highlighted by Polanyi (Mirowski 1998;

Jacobs 2000. In practice, simple tinkering may also be important. Schön (1987,31) illustrated such a process by recounting Edmund Carpenter's description of the Eskimo sculptor patiently carving a reindeer bone,

According to Rosen (1985), anticipatory systems are systems that contain predictive models, allowing future to have an impact on the present:

The stimulus of my action Is downloaded not just by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 743 the sight of the bear,

and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 744 I. Tuomi Figure 1. Modelling relation according to Rosen. mathematical models that make predictive statements particularly efficient and allow,

As Bergson (1988) pointed out abstraction itself relies on memory. This means that both natural systems and their predictive models are necessarily to a large extent retrospective.

Ontological Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 745 Figure 2. Modelling in the context of the phenomenological veil. unpredictability,

In future-oriented research, the nature and implications of‘weak signals'have been debated actively during the last few years (Mendonça et al. 2004;

Rossel 2011; Holopainen and Toivonen 2012. We can use the above analysis to gain some novel insights into this debate.

The Bergsonian story about the emergence of the biological eye and vision is structured in three acts.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 746 I. Tuomi A similar story underlies the GSM short messaging example Engineers first define a standard that allows short messages to be delivered using the GSM control channel.

where the‘objects'of the world provide the ultimate foundation for analysis (Hiltunen 2008). Here Nishida's (1987) analysis of the problems of objectificcation underlying the more recent work of Shimitzu and Nonaka (Nonaka, Toyama,

and Hirata 2008), still represents the state of the art. Although ontological expansion makes future an unpredictable place,

this does not mean that we cannot say anything interesting about the future. It may be impossible to have facts

so that we are better able to live in an unpredictable world (Miller 2007). In strategic decision-making, it is possible that the traditionalansoffian analysis of weak signals mainly produces fictional certainty that leads to managerial overconfidence and blindness to true novelty and uncertainties.

and that they are able to predict the future also now (Bukszar 1999). A potential approach to reduce such misplaced overconfidence is to explicate both the underlying Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 747 assumptions (Rossel 2009)

and the narrative structures (Wright 2005) that are used to make sense of the issue at hand. As decision-making tends to be inherently a political process,

it is believed often that conflict can be reduced by decision processes that emphasise data and facts. The above discussion indicates that such approaches have limited only potential in future-oriented analysis.

and standardised interpretations do not exist (Regnér 2003). Instead of emphasising the‘objective'in future-oriented analysis, decision processes and future-oriented analysis therefore should methodologically emphasise domains that are labelled conventionally‘subjective'.

Ogilvy (2011) has argued recently that scenario developers and decision-makers have to learn to maintain an agnostic attitude

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 748 I. Tuomi In general facts exist only for natural systems that have associated measurement instruments and established encodings and decodings between the natural system and its formal model.

For a critical historical review of key contributions, see Mirowski (2009. 2. Ontological uncertainty has been defined in several different ways by different authors.

For example, Lane and Max-field (2004) distinguished between truth uncertainty, semantic uncertainty, and ontological uncertainty.

and access to the telex network has already been discussed in the first GSM plenary meeting in Stockholm in 1982 (CEPT-CCH-GSM 1982).

however, lists mobile-to-mobile SMS as an‘additional service'(CEPT/GSM 1985). In recent years, both Friedhelm Hillebrand and Matti Makkonen have been described as the‘inventors'of SMS (Wallén 2008;

Milian 2009. In its present form, SMS emerged only after 1992 when Nokia introduced the first SMS-capable phone. 4. Leont'ev's activity theory was based on Vygotsky's theories on cultural historical development (Luria and Vygotsky 1992).

A similar three-level structure emerges when we analyse the communicative meaning of sentences. We cannot derive the communicative meaning of a sentence by adding up word definitions,

and we cannot define the meaning Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 749 of a word by adding up letters.

The letters are used to‘implement'the words, and words are used to say things; the meaning of a sentence,

however, cannot be reduced to its constitutive letters. The meaning of activity, similarly, cannot be deduced from observed acts. 5. Cf.

Louie (2010), Poli (2010), and other articles in the same special issue of foresight on anticipatory systems.

and S. Lash. 1994. Reflexive modernization: Politics, tradition and aesthetics in the modern social order.

Bergson, H. 1983. Creative evolution (first edition 1907. Lanham, MD: University Press of America. Bergson, H. 1988.

Matter and memory (first edition 1896. Newyork: Zone Books. Bijker, W. E t. P. Hughes, and T. J. Pinch. 1987.

The social construction of technological systems: New directions in the sociology and history of technology.

and H. Van Lente. 2006. The sociology of expectations in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos 3 4: 285 98.

and C. M. Christensen. 1995. Disruptive technologies: Catching thewave. Harvard Business Review (January February: 43 53.

and S l. Star. 1999. Sorting things out: Classification and its consequences. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

and P. Duguid. 1991. Organizational learning and communities of practice: Toward a unified view of working, learning, and innovation.

and P. Duguid. 2000. The social life of information. Boston, MA: Harvard Business school Press. Bukszar, E. 1999.

Strategic bias: The impact of cognitive biases on strategy. Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences 16, no. 2: 105 17.

and A. Rip. 1986. Mapping the dynamics of science and technology: Sociology of science in the real world.

CEPT-CCH-GSM. 1982. Report from meeting no. 1. T/CCH (83)/ 9 GSM Doc 32/83.

CEPT/GSM. 1985. Services and facilities to be provided in the GSM system. GSM Doc 28/85 rev. 2. Constant, E w. 1987.

The social locus of technological practice: Community, system, or organization? In The social construction of technological systems:

Dosi, G. 1982. Technical paradigms and technological trajectories a suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technological change.

Engel, P. G. H. 1997. The social organization of innovation: A focus on stakeholder interaction. The netherlands: Royal Tropical Institute.

Fischer, C. S. 1992. America calling: A social history of telephone to 1940. Berkeley, CA:

University of California Press. Fleck, L. 1979. Genesis and development of a scientific fact. Chicago, IL:

. and M. Rappa. 1994. A socio-cognitive model of technology evolution. Organization science 4, no. 3: 527 50.

Geels, F. W. 2005. The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: A multilevel analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860 1930.

Technology analysis & Strategic management 17, no. 4: 445 76. Giddens, A. 1984. The constitution of society:

Outline of the theory of structure. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. Goffman, E. 1959.

Haken, H.,ed. 1981. Chaos and order in nature. Berlin: Springer-verlag. Haldane, J. S. 1931.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 750 I. Tuomi Hiltunen, E. 2008.

and M. Toivonen. 2012. Weak signals: Ansoff today. Futures 44, no. 3: 198 205. Hughes, T. P. 1983.

Networks of power: Electrification in western society 1880 1930. Baltimore, MD: The John Hopkins University Press.

Jacobs, S. 2000. Spontaneous order: Michael Polanyi and Friedrich Hayek. Critical review of International Social and Political Philosophy 3, no. 4: 49 67.

Knight, F. H. 1921. Risk, uncertainty, and profit. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin. Knorr Cetina, K. 1999.

Epistemic cultures: How the sciences make knowledge. Cambridge, MA: Harvard university Press. Lane, D, . and R. Maxfield. 2004.

Ontological uncertainty and innovation. Journal of Evolutionary economics 15, no. 1: 3 50. Latour, B. 1996.

Aramis, or the love of technology. Boston, MA: Harvard university Press. Lave, J, . and E. Wenger. 1991.

Situated learning: Legitimate peripheral participation. Cambridge: Cambridge university Press. Leont'ev, A n. 1978. Activity, consciousness, and personality.

Prentice-hall. Lewontin, R. 1983. The organism as the subject and object of evolution. Scientia 118: 63 82.

Louie, A. H. 2010. Robert Rosen's anticipatory systems. Foresight 12, no. 3: 18 29.

Luhmann, N. 1990. Essays on self-reference. Newyork: Columbia University Press. Luria, A r, . and L. Vygotsky. 1992.

Ape, primitive man, and child: Essays in the history of behavior. Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf.

and F. J. Varela. 1980. Autopoiesis and cognition: The realization of the living. London: Reidl.

and F. J. Varela. 1988. The tree of knowledge: The biological roots of human understanding. Boston, MA:

and F. Ruff. 2004. Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation. Futures 36, no. 2 march: 201 18.

Milian, M. 2009. Why text messages are limited to 160 characters. Los angeles times, May 3. http://latimesblogs. latimes. com/technology/2009/05/invented-text-messaging. html Miller, R. 2007.

Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures 39, no. 4: 341 62. Mirowski, P. 1998.

Economics, science, and knowledge: Polanyi vs. Hayek. Tradition & Discovery, The Polanyi Society Periodical XXV, no. 1: 29 42.

Mirowski, P. 2009. Why there is (as yet) no such thing as an economics of knowledge. In The Oxford handbook of philosophy of economics, ed. H. Kincaid and D. Ross, 99 156.

Mokyr, J. 1990. The lever of riches: Technological creativity and economic progress. Oxford: Oxford university Press.

Nishida, K. 1987. Last writings: Nothingness and the religious worldview. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press.

Nishida, K. 2012. Logic and life. In place and dialectic: Two essays by Nishida Kitaro, trans.

and T. Hirata. 2008. Managing flow: A process theory of the knowledge-based firm. Houndmills, Basingstoke:

Ogilvy, J. 2011. Facing the fold: From the eclipse of Utopia to the restoration of hope.

and T. J. Pinch. 2003. Introduction: How users and non-users matter. In How users matter:

Perez, C. 1985. Microelectronics, long waves and world structural change: New perspectives for developing countries. World Development 13, no. 3: 441 63.

Polanyi, M. 1998. Personal knowledge: Towards a post-critical philosophy. London: Routledge. Poli, R. 2010.

The many aspects of anticipation. Foresight 12, no. 3: 7 17. Raven, R. P. J. M,

. and F. W. Geels. 2010. Socio-cognitive evolution in niche development: Comparative analysis of biogas development in Denmark and The netherlands (1973 2004.

Technovation 30, no. 2: 87 99. Regnér, P. 2003. Strategy creation in the periphery: Inductive versus deductive strategy making.

Journal of Management Studies 40, no. 1: 57 82. Rosen, R. 1985. Anticipatory systems: Philosophical, mathematical and methodological foundations.

Oxford: Pergamon Press. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 751 Rossel, P. 2009.

Weak signals as a flexible framing space for enhanced management and decision-making. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 307 20.

Rossel, P. 2011. Beyond the obvious: Examiningways of consolidating early detection schemes. Technological forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 3: 375 85.

Rubin, A. 1998. Giving images a chance: Images of the future as a tool for sociology.

Schön, D. A. 1983. The reflective practitioner. Newyork: Basic books. Schön, D. A. 1987. Educating the reflective practitioner:

Toward a new design for teaching and learning in the professions. San francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.

Schumpeter, J. A. 2005. The analysis of economic change. Reprinted from Review of Economic Statistics, May 2 10,1935.

Taleb, N. N. 2007. The black swan. Newyork: Random House. Thom, R. 1972. Stabilité structurelle et morphogénèse:

Tuomi, I. 1999. Corporate knowledge: Theory and practice of intelligent organizations. Helsinki: Metaxis. Tuomi, I. 2002.

Networks of innovation: Change and meaning in the age of the Internet. Oxford: Oxford university Press.

and P. Anderson. 1986. Technological discontinuities and organizational environments. Administrative Science Quarterly 31, no. 3: 439 65. van Asselt, M. B. A,

. and J. Rotmans. 2002. Uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling. Climatic Change 54, no. 1: 75 105.

and E. Rosch. 1991. The embodied mind: Cognitive science and human experience. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

Von Hippel, E. 1988. The sources of innovation. Newyork: Oxford university Press. Walker, W. E.,P. Harremoes, J. Rotmans, J. van der Sluijs, M. B. A. vanasselt, P. Janssen,

and M. P. Krayer von Krauss. 2003. Defining uncertainty: A conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support.

Wallén, M. 2008. Mannen som uppfann sms: et. Dagens Industri, May 11. http://di. se/Artiklar/2008/5/11/41905/Mannensoomuppfann-sms-et/Whitehead, A n. 1978.

Wright, A. 2005. The role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices. Management Decision 43, no. 1: 86 101.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014

< Back - Next >