This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 05:03 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Riccardo Vecchiato (2012) Strategic foresight: matching environmental uncertainty, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 783-796, DOI:
10.1080/09537325.2012.715487 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715487 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
Teece 2007) and the organisation theory literature (Dill 1958; Thompson 1967) have emphasised long the role of the environment as a major source of uncertainty for strategic decision-makers in charge of coping with emerging opportunities and threats.
and processes that assist decision-makers in the task of charting the company's future course of action (Coates, Durance, and Godet 2010;
Martin 1995; Roveda and Vecchiato 2008. The main goal of strategic foresight is to select promptly drivers of change in the company's outside environment (environmental scanning:
see Day and Schoemaker 2006; Hambrick 1982) and to investigate their likely evolution and impact on the organisation (foresight techniques:
see Porter et al. 2004. So far, strategic foresight has uneven success and popularity. On the one hand, scholars have shown that in the last two decades a significant number of leading firms of such diverse sectoor as energy, automotive, telecommunications,
and information technology have been regularly applying foresight techniques (Daheim and Uerz 2008; Reger 2001; Rollwagen, Hofmann, and*Email:
riccardo. vecchiato@polimi. it ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715487 http
://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 784 R. Vecchiato Schneider 2008;
Vecchiato and Roveda 2010a. The wide interest in foresight seems to be confirmed by the growing number of consulting companies and networks in the field. 1 On the other hand,
scholars have failed to clearly define the value added of foresight and to provide empirical evidence of its contribution to sustain the advantage of the firm over time.
The most relevant example concerning the impact of foresight on the success of the organisation still remains the case of Shell scenarios and its anticipation of the forthcoming 1973 oil crisis (van der Heijden 1996;
Wack 1985. In this context, some scepticism arose in the academic community regarding the reliability of foresight efforts and their soundness and appropriateness for supporting strategic decision-making (Bradley Mackay and Costanzo 2009;
Grant 2003; Wiltbank et al. 2006. The major evidence of this scepticism may be the fact that today foresight is addressed not specifically by most MBA curricula;
2 furthermore, so far only a limited number of papers on anticipatory studies in corporate organisations have been hosted by leading academic journals.
Scholars and practitioners in the field generally respond to such concern about the reliability of foresight by arguing that its role is not so much to predict the future,
but to prepare the firm for the future (van der Heyden et al. 2002; Tsoukas and Shepherd 2004.
However, scholars omitted to investigate thoroughly what kind of foresight techniques and practices should a firm adopt
in order to match uncertainty in its business environment and thus prepare at its best for the future.
because the role of anticipatory actions is a key issue in literature on strategic management (Ansoff 1991;
Mintzberg 1990; Wiltbank et al. 2006. In order to explore the relationships between environmental uncertainty, foresight, and strategic decision-making, we performed a multiple-case study of corporate organisations.
In this paper, we focus on BASF in the chemical industry, Daimler in the automotive industry, Philips in the consumer electronics industry,
and the main drivers of change in each industry of our sample firms since the early 1990s.
when managers lack accurate information Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 785 about organisations, activities,
Milliken (1987) distinguishes between three types of uncertainty that act together to determine the overall uncertainty faced by strategic decision-makers.
will new laws be enacted in the next 10 years? If so, how strict will these be?.
and today are referred commonly to as the business macro environment (Fahey and Randall 1998). Strategic foresight:
such approaches are grouped commonly under the label‘strategic foresight'(Coates, Durance, and Godet 2010; Vecchiato and Roveda 2010b.
the first regards environmental scanning and the detection of new events and drivers of change (Mendonça and Sapio 2009.
Roadmaps, 3 scenarios, 4 and strategic options (Dixit and Pindyck 1994) are by far the most popular foresight techniques (Becker 2002;
Cuhls and Johnston 2008. But there are many others: for example, Delphi, relevance trees, trend-impact analysis, cross-impact analysis, systems dynamics,
and game theory (Glenn 1999; Porter et al. 2004; Roveda et al. 2007. However, strategic foresight had uneven success. Rigby (2001) found that only 21.5%of North american executives used scenario planning in 1999, approximately 50%fewer than in 1994.
Increasing criticism has pointed to the unreliability of anticipatory studies: while relatively accuraat in the short term, forecasting accuracy diminishes in the medium and long terms as political, economic, social,
and technological drivers of change interact in novel and unforeseeable ways. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 786 R. Vecchiato Prominent scholars supported the idea that the best way to handle an uncertain future is to ignore it
and emphasised an‘adaptive approach'based on strategic flexibility (Hamel 2000; Mintzberg 1990. Foresight practitioners and scholars generally respond to such criticism by arguing that the role of foresight
and its value added does not lie in predicting the future, but in preparing to deal with the future by means of a learning process that helps the organisation to remain matched to its changing environment (van der Heijden et al. 2002;
Tsoukas and Shepherd 2004. In this vein, scholars focused on methodological issues regarding how to implement a large number of foresight practices and techniques.
However, they generally omitted to clarify whether and under what conditions of environmental uncertainty a given practice
or technique is more appropriate and effective than others. Extant research streams of environmental uncertainty and strategic foresight are aligned not seamlessly.
The following issue in particular remains largely unexplored: how do managers design their strategic foresight approach in different environments and thus under different conditions of uncertainty?
and Siemens. 5 Given the inadequate analysis in the literature and the open-ended nature of our questions, we felt that this methodological approach would be the most useful for theory building (Eisenhardt and Graebner 2007;
Yin 2003. Table 1 provides an overview of our empirical setting. The cases of these firms are extremely explanatory:
on the one hand, throughout the 2000s, BASF, Daimler, Philips, and Siemens operated in different industries that underwent considerably different (kinds of) drivers of change and conditions of uncertainty.
Firm Business Foresight activities started Philips Consumer electronics Early 1990s BASF Chemicals Mid-1990s Daimler Automotive Late 1970s Siemens Consumer Products,
ICT Mid-1990s Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 787 The unit of analysis was twofold.
since they started their foresight efforts and in particular throughout the 2000s. On the other hand we analysed the foresight activities of each firm in relation to uncertainty and drivers of change in its business environment and the use of strategic foresight in decision-making.
Data analysis was highly iterative and used traditional approaches for inductive research (Eisenhardt 1989; Yin 2003.
Analysis began with detailed written accounts and schematic representtation of the historical evolution of the industry of each firm.
Since the 1990s, the demand for chemicals has been characterised by low growth and considerable cyclicality Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 788 R. Vecchiato
(which is likely to increase in the near future). Capacity cannot be adjusted easily, so there is a constant danger of overcapacity.
Strategic foresight activities at BASF started in the mid-1990s, when the company realised that the chemical industry was going through major structural changes
The time frame is usually 10 15 years for Global Scenarios, but much shorter for sector and business scenarios.
and response options to drivers of change (Ruff 2006). Such system aims at encompassing and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues.
and mobility business and are carried out at a global level or for a specific region over a 10 15-year perspective.
(and divestment) decisions for Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 789 expanding
throughout the 2000s were rather dynamic. The growing pace of technology developmment and the continuous emergence of disruptive changes in customer needs have contributed together to greatly increased dynamism in these industries and for these firms.
A corporate unit (Philips Design) established in the 1990s delivers innovative design concepts and services for the company main businesses.
Within Philips Design, the‘Trends and Strategy'team has been devoted to the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 790 R. Vecchiato investigation of three axes‘Society'‘
A specific initiative the‘Probes Program'has been established recently as a long-run (10-year time horizon) research project intended to present‘provocations'about new lifestyle patterns,
Foresight activities usually cover a 10-year time horizon, while emerging trend investigations are scheduled yearly to fit in with the annual strategy calendar.
In the case of the consumer products and ICT businesses, the time horizon is 5 years.
Since the late 1990s, foresight activities have played a key role in redefining the company mission, as it focused its value proposition on the‘Sense and Simplicity'concept.
it is allocated to the‘Siemens Technology Accelerator'(part of the Corporate Technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 791 division),
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 792 R. Vecchiato On the other hand, drivers of change in the consumer electronics business of Philips (or the broader ICT business in the case of Siemens) affected the identity of the main components of the micro environment itself and thus brought about‘boundary'uncertainty.
operating in the consumer electronic business in the 2000s could be compared to the case of a player who still has to learn both the rules of the game
Discontiinuou drivers of change are typically disruptive technologies (Christensen 1997) and new customer needs stemming from emerging or growing industries.
Managers at BASF and Daimler could be quite confident about the key decisions they would have to make in the next 20 years or even more
see Schwartz 1991) could be used directly for handling state, effect, and response uncertainty. First, these techniques allowed managers to think about the alternative evolutions of drivers of change (state uncertainty) in an organic and systematic way.
Scenarios provided an organic framework for thinking about how these forces could develop in the next 10 or 20 years.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 793 On the other hand as they were facing discontinuous drivers of change,
Second, we provide empirical evidence on the ways major companies designed their strategic foresight approaches to handling uncertainty and supporting long-range planning (Cassingena Harper et al. 2008;
Da Costa et al. 2008. We argue that boundary uncertainty is something different from state, effect,
which so far have been the main focus of strategic scholars (Milliken 1987). Boundary uncertainty entails strong implications for foresight efforts:
and start-ups) in order to identify the new components of the industry (see, for instance, Mendonça and Sapio 2009).
That might Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 794 R. Vecchiato be the case in the medium/long-term future of the automotive industry itself,
which previous scholars have suggested as the main contribution of foresight to strategic decision-making (van der Hejden et al. 2002;
Tsoukas and Shepherd 2004. Data collection and data analyses were designed in order to improve the construct and internna validity of our conceptual framework.
and managerial cognition (Tripsas and Gavetti 2000) for investigating how to identify discontinuous drivers and how to renew managerial beliefs about the boundaries of their business.
illustrating the temporal and causal relationships between nodes (Kostoff and Schaller 2001). 4. Scenarios are focused descriptions of fundamentally different futures presented in a coherent script-like or narrative fashion.
but rather credible and coherent stories that describe different paths leading to alternative futures (Fahey and Randall 1998;
Schwartz 1991. 5. Siemens is a conglomerate company which operates in a wide range of different businesses (e g. automation, building, energy, health, and mobility).
Wild cards are low-probability, high-impact events (Mendonça et al. 2004. Continuous and discontinuous drivers might have either low or high probability and either high impact or low impact:
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 795 Notes on contributor Riccardo Vecchiato is Assistant professor at the Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering of Politecnico di Milano
In 2005, he was a visiting researcher at the Manchester Business school, University of Manchester. His main research fields are foresight methodologies and strategic management of technology and innovation.
References Ansoff, H. I. 1991. Critique of Henry Mintzberg's‘The design school':'Reconsidering the basic premises of strategic management.
Becker, P. 2002. Corporate foresight in Europe: A first overview. RTD K-2 Scientific and Technological foresight, Brussels:
. and L a. Costanzo. 2009. Introduction. In Handbook of research on strategic foresight, ed. R. Bradley Mackay and L a. Costanzo, 1 12.
and R. Johnston. 2008. Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 267 9. Christensen, C. M. 1997.
The innovator's dilemma. Boston, MA: Harvard Business school Press. Coates, J.,P. Durance, and M. Godet, eds. 2010.
Strategic foresight. Special issue, Technological forecasting and Social Change 77, no. 9: 1423 5. Cuhls, K, . and R. Johnston. 2008.
Corporate foresight. In Future-oriented technology analysis, strategic intelligence for an innovative economy, ed. C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo,
and F. Scapolo. 2008. The impact of foresight on policy-making: Insight from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 369 87.
and G. Uerz. 2008. Corporate foresight in Europe: From trend based logics to open foresight.
and P. J. H. Schoemaker. 2006. Peripheral vision. Boston, MA: Harvard Business school Press. Dill, W. R. 1958.
and R. S. Pindyck. 1994. Investment under uncertainty. Princeton, NJ: Princeton university Press. Duncan, R. B. 1972.
Eisenhardt, K. M. 1989. Building theories from case studies research. Academy of Management Review 14, no. 4: 532 50.
and M. E. Graebner. 2007. Theory building from cases: Opportunities and challenges. Academy of Management Journal 50, no. 1: 25 32.
and R. Randall. 1998. Learning from the future. Newyork: Wiley. Glenn, J. C.,ed. 1999.
Futures research methodology. WASHINGTON DC: American Council for the United nations, The Millennium Project. Grant, R. M. 2003. Strategic planning in a turbulent environment:
Evidence from the oil majors. Strategic management Journal 24, no. 6: 491 517. Hambrick, D c. 1982.
Environmental scanning and organizational strategy. Strategic management Journal 3, no. 2: 159 74. Hamel, G. 2000. Leading the revolution.
Boston, MA: Harvard Business school Press. van der Heijden, K. 1996. Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation.
Newyork: Wiley. van der Heijden, K.,R. Bradfield, G. Burt, G. Crains, and G. Wright. 2002.
The sixth sense: Accelerating organisational learning with scenarios. Chichester: Wiley. Hofer, C. W, . and D. E. Schendel. 1978.
and R. R. Schaller. 2001. Science and technology roadmaps. IEEETRANSACTIONS on Engineeringmanagement 48, no. 2: 132 43.
Mcgraw-hill. Martin, B. 1995. Foresight in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 7, no. 2: 139 68.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 796 R. Vecchiato Mendonça, S m. P. Cunha, J. Kaivo-oja,
and F. Ruff. 2004. Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation. Futures 36, no. 2: 201 18.
and B. Sapio. 2009. Managing foresight in changing organizational settings: Introducing new perspectives and practices. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 285 9. Miles, R. E,
Mcgraw-hill. Milliken, F. J. 1987. Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment: State, effect,
Mintzberg, H. 1990. The design school: Reconsidering the basic premises of strategic management. Strategic management Journal 11, no. 3: 171 95.
Porter, A l.,B. Ashton, G. Clar, J. F. Coates, K. Cuhls, S w. Cunningham, K. Ducatel, et al. 2004.
Porter, M. E. 1980. Competitive strategy. Newyork: Free Press. Porter, M. E. 1985. Competitive advantage. Newyork: Free Press.
Reger, G. 2001. Technology foresight in companies: From an indicator to a network and process perspective.
Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53. Rigby, D. 2001. Management tools and techniques: A survey.
California Management Review 4, no. 2: 139 60. Rollwagen, I.,J. Hofmann, and S. Schneider. 2008.
Improving the business impact of foresight. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 337 49. Roveda, C, . and R. Vecchiato. 2008.
Foresight and innovation in the context of industrial clusters: The case of some Italian districts.
and P. Landoni. 2007. A new methodology for regional foresight. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 3, no. 2: 218 34.
Ruff, F. 2006. Corporate foresight: Integrating the future business environment into innovation and strategy. International Journal of Technology management 34, nos. 3 4: 278 95.
Schwartz, P. 1991. The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world.
Teece, D. J. 2007. Explicating dynamic capabilities: The nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance.
and G. Gavetti. 2000. Capabilities, cognition, and inertia: Evidence from digital imaging. Strategic management Journal 21, nos. 10 11: 1147 61.
and J. Shepherd. 2004. Introduction: Organization and the future, from forecasting to foresight. In Managing the future:
Wack, P. 1985. Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review 63, no. 5: 73 90.
and S d. Sarasvathy. 2006. What to do next? The case for non-predictive strategy. Strategic management Journal 27, no. 10: 981 98.
Yin, R. K. 2003. Case study research: Design and methods. 3rd ed. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014
This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 05:04 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Cristiano Cagnin & Denis Loveridge (2012) A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 797-820, DOI:
10.1080/09537325.2012.715488 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715488 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www. tandfonline. com/page/termsanndconditions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 Technology analysis & Strategic management Vol. 24
and a model of how companies create enduring continuity needed for sustainable development (Brundtland 1987). This paper suggests a dynamic framework of continual learning to enable businesses to anticipate
this differs from the triplebotttomline approach (Elkington 1998.**Corresponding author. Email: cristianocagnin@gmail. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715488 http
://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 798 C. Cagnin
and D. Loveridge Sustainability can be defined as the capability of an organisation to persist into the long-term future:
Hence, business sustainability evolves from the linear concept of a value chain introduced by Porter (1985) or the current paradigm of supply chain management or value nets (Bovet and Martha 2000a, 2000b, 2000c, 2000d, 2000e.
The analysis of value within a firm (Porter 1980, 1985a, 1985b,1991, 1997), through the integration of customers into the chain (Mcstravic 1999) and later the incorporation of suppliers/deliverers as well as customers (Bovet and Martha 2000
and identify sources of interrelationships between business units (O'sullivan and Geringer 1993). Developments in this approach,
In this paper, a new concept of networked sustainability (Cagnin 2005) is introduced as an evolution of the value Net value is redefined to be a triple-bottom-line balance of the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within a business's network:
the redefinition is based on universal principles (Covey 1997) shaped by six dimensions of sustainability (Bursztyn et al. 1999;
Loveridge 1999; Cagnin 2005), namely social (S), spatial-technological (ST), economic (E), ecological (Ec), political (P) and values-norms (V)( acronym SSTEEPV.
In this context, Section 2 outlines that current models responsible for moulding a business's competitive advantage sustainably are weak in the nature of stakeholders'involvement in strategic partnerships.
There is a rising importance in comprehending the advantages that firms can gain from network relationships (Hoffman 2000)
to Be downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 799 represented by a triple-bottom-line balance or the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within the network.
and Watts 2002) are the cornersstone of networked sustainability. Moreover, the value activities in the network must align
Finally, Section 5 summarises the main conclusions and outlines implications for policy and subsequent decision-making. 2. Analysis of existing tools and their gaps Since the 1990s, a range of tools have been brought in to help companies design their path
network and organisational culture (Caldow and Kirby 1996. The situation seems to rely on the ability to build a group of generic behaviours or actions over
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 800 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 1. Existing tools and their relation to the PDCA cycle.
Chehebe (1998), ISO (2012), D'Avignon (1996), Cajazeira (1997), Donaire (1999), Maimon (1999), Accountability (1999), BSI (2003.
and how these generally relate to the PDCA (plan do check act) cycle (Campos 1992;
SIGMA 2001), which describes the layer behind business management systems. The continuous improvement cycle found in the PDCA is the key process for driving learning and innovation in an organisation.
they need to be integrated to be considered as‘primary'for the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
Cagnin (2005. development and delivery of responsible products and services across the network throughout their life cycle.
These are needed the activities for the creation of value in sustainable development (Cagnin 2005. Appendix 3 summarrise the main characteristics of these value activities.
Theactivities Model (Figure 1) is based on the quantum leaps model devised by Shelton (1997), which describes the necessary capabilities needed to transform our organisations
These are assumed to be critical to a business's sustainable Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 802 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge development,
subjective and able to self-organise (Maturana and Varela 1980, 1997; Capra 1997; Dempster 1998,2000;
Maturana 1998. 3. 2. Basis for the management framework and roles that FTA can play The proposed management framework aims to support the achievement of a business with aligned socioeconomic environmental performance across its network that helps firms develop a participaativ process throughout to shape a common vision of sustainable development
to be pursued by all actors involved in the system. Moreover, it should link the activities that need to be performed at each stage to build an organisation's ability to know itself (how things are done in the present),
enabling the design of the necessary actions to achieve the desirable future (how things ought to be done according to the business's and its networks'vision).
and interaction, being transparent and accountable to stakeholders (Brinch-Pedersen 2003). Hence, firms should use the evolutionary lessons as a main step in integrating sustainable development into the business model.
According to Gertler and Wolfe (2002), networked learning enables a process of adaptation that is participatory and interactive and in
which social relations and the communication of insights and knowledge (Georghiou et al. 2008) are critical for successful outcomes.
through processes and tools that enable spaces for inclusive dialogue to take place (Shelton 1997; Cagnin 2005;
Boden et al. 2010; Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012. Embedding this form of dialogue in the proposed management framework improves the ways in
which stakeholders are perceived by one another and also the ways that they are involved in decision processes. In turn, these lead to further mutual experimentation and collaborative learning.
Collaborative learning is the basis of this evolutionary leap founded on an inclusive and active dialogue among all parties in the network:
and attach concrete meaning and actions to the business's values (Giversen 2003). Trust must be achieved by developing the confidence of all parties in every link of the network's intent and behaviour (Lund 2003.
To build this kind of trust, all parties need to engage, as equals, in dialogue through an inclusive approach (Olsen 2003).
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 803 The development of effective and lasting partnerships is critical,
requiring a common identity (a true feeling of who‘we'are as partners as well as of who each actor is as individuals)
and of legitimacy (important to sustain credibility, recognition and success)( Hardis 2003). Trust cannot be taken for granted
what is possible (Shelton 1997). The expression‘meta-learning'was created by Losada (1999) and defined as‘the ability of a team to dissolve attractors that close possibilities for effective action
and to evolve attractors that open possibilities for effective action'.'Meta-learning can also be understood as the ability to learn how to learn
and/or think (Losada 2001). According to Losada (1999), high-performance teams need an inclusive dialogue approach for all stakeholders in the network.
It seems to be critical to creating a continual collaborative learning process across the network and brings value to all the involved parties,
Moreover, FTA supports one to deal with complexity (Saritas 2006) to process and interpret weak signals, wild cards (Amanatidou et al. 2012;
Könnölä et al. 2012) and alternative options (Bezold et al. 2009; Boden et al. 2010; Cagnin and Könnölä, forthcoming) to support decisionmakking All these are critical to reconcile creativity and rational analysis (Shelton 1997;
Cagnin 2005. Also, these are required to link learning and strategy to a long-term common vision of where an organisation wants to position itself within possible alternative futures.
These include partners 'and stakeholders'views of what the future might entail. It also considers where all actors see themselves both individually and collectively within these alternative futures.
The link between learning and strategy around a common vision in the network enables trust to be developed across the system through participatory instruments.
These take into consideration the diversity of views across the network and the collective articulation of visions and expectations.
such a common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of network actors in relation to future needs (Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012.
Capra 1997; Dempster 1998,2000; Maturana 1998; Cagnin 2005) between actors need to be reinforced to allow the coordination
and mobilisation of necessary skills and resources towards a common target, aligning therefore strategy and operations across the system.
Hence, FTA plays a significant role in anticipating and managing disruptive and transformattiv changes and does so by providing spaces for mutual appreciation,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 804 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 2. Contributions of FTA.
The dynamism of a swarm or a network may be thought of as autopoiesis (Maturana andvarela 1980),
Sympoiesis (Dempster 1998) attempts to describe the boundaryless nature of system behaviour (more will be said about sympoiiesi later)
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 805 Foresight cannot remove the uncertainties any business faces
Equally, Al Haig's dictum that‘vision without discipline is daydream'(Haig 1984) is necessary to prevent the outcomes of foresight becoming too expansive.
The Maturity Model suggested in Table 3 (Cagnin 2005) uses the notion of evolution in
The design of the Sustainability Maturity Model is founded on universal principles as well as the maturity of behaviours that can lead to the development of a mature business throughout its network of relationships (Cagnin 2005)
and considers a number of other related attempts (Perlman and Takacs 1990; Katzenbach and Smith 1993;
Eckenfelder 1997; Elrod and Tippett 1999; Berg et al. 2002; Kwak and Ibbs 2002; von Zedtwitz 2002;
Rosenbeer 2003; Verweire and Berghe 2003; Entovation International 2004; Losada and Heaphy 2004; Fredrickson and Losada 2005.
As a reminder, the model seeks to enable a common strategy and/or strategies aligned across the network,
founded on a shared vision for sustainable development to be pursued by all actors, with interdependent and agreed roles;
a cooperative interactive network rooted in communication channels that allow relevant and agreed information to flowfreely to create a common base of knowledge shared among partners to ensure that trust is enhanced;
and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 806 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 3. Business sustainability maturity model.
Maturity levels 3-Managed with no 4-Excellence at corproate 5-High-performance Value activity 1-Ad hoc 2-Planned in isolation integration level sustainability net Strategy-Overhead,
driven by regulation, complaints, management directives and cost of accidents and impacts-No processes or controls in place
and no support from leadership/senior management-Success depends on individual efforts; change factors as an unpredictable serendipity-Sustainability functionally isolated;
firm's main objective is to gain capital efficiency-Objectives only partly known-Systematisation of existing practices-Objectives identified
but not in alignment with business target (to gain operational efficiency)- Supporting mechanisms are informal,
according to needs (access to past information)- Policies defined and the firm has strengths in doing similar work;
inter-group learning-Values (universal principles) embedded in every process Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
and rational analysis become complementary (Continued) Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 808 C. Cagnin
functional silos removed (information flow)- Systemic processes/systems Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
In this context and according to Hock (1999), enterprises must be able to combine, with harmony, order and chaos, competition and cooperation,
Maturana andvarela (1980) agree when affirming that every organism has the power to self-generate by means of autopoiesis,
which implies continuous auto-production and reproduction (Maturana and Varella 1997): autopoietic systems produce and are a product of themselves (Rocha 2003).
Interpreting complex systems from the perspective of ecosystems, Dempster (1998) coined the expression sympoietic systems, indicating three main differences, related to key system characteristics between autopoiesis and sympoiesis:
1. autopoietic systems have defined self boundaries, while sympoietic systems do not; 2. autopoietic systems are self-produced,
Dempster (2000) concludes that these differences mean that autopoietic systems are oriented homeostatic, development, centrally controlled, predictable and efficient,
According to Rocha (2003), complex systems require interactivity: in the same way, it is not possible to understand living systems without perceiving the systemic relationshhip of cells
The stronger the interactions between the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 810 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge components of the network,
and in one's own emotions (Fell and Russell 1994; Damasio 1996; Maturana 1998; Losada 1999,2001;
Fredrickson and Losada 2005) is crucial for choosing a sustainable path to life or for moving the whole system towards higher levels of sustainable development.
Dialogue and information-sharing, founded on trust, are pre-requirements. Features of universal ethics or universal principles and those of respect (Zohar 1990;
Cagnin 2000) can be linked with Losada's notions of high-performance teams and organisations: individuaal and corporations should have the ability to respect each other.
These might be the necessary characteristics to enable actors within business networks to perform at higher levels
and to improve their quality of life. Included here are respect and responsibility built upon inclusive dialogue and active participation,
along with conflicts, generating transparency, development (Giversen 2003; Larsen 2003) and ability to live with the paradox of chaos and order, competition and cooperation, through sympoietic system capability.
Social change implies that people within a society must change: this happens either through encounters outside the specific social system or via reflections through language (Maturana and Varela 1997.
Dialogue, respect and emotions for others'feelings are critical; the emotions of individuals build their rationality (Damasio 1996) and their human actions (Maturana 1998.
Basic emotions are thus the basis of the operationalisation of living organisms, and these change as the environment changes.
according to Tuomi (2011), is critical to address some of the epistemic and ontological assumptions that underlie much of the current FTA practice.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 811 Table 4. Business sustainability management framework. s e i t i v i t C a-b U s s e i t
and preparing the whole network to walk into a higher sustainability maturity level 5th Maturity Level Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 812 C. Cagnin
what is involved in managing a business towards sustainable developmmen within the Brundtland criteria (Brundtland 1987).
Progress towards sustainable development may depend on building dynamic partnerships among these three pillars (Holliday, Schmidheiny, andwatts 2002.
which can be achieved through FTA APPROACHES and methods (Cagnin et al. 2008). This is a key aspect for policy interventtion Ultimately,
Denis Loveridge is Honorary Visiting professor at Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR), Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, after 44 years in industry.
References Accountability. 1999. Accountability 1000 framework standards, guidelines and professional qualification. http://www. accountability. org/(accessed June 2012.
Amanatidou, E.,M. Butter, V. Carabias, T. Könnölä, M. Leis, O. Saritas, P. Schaper-Rinkel,
and V. van-Rik. 2012. On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues.
and J. Pihlajamaa. 2002. Assessment of quality and maturity level of R&d. International Journal of Production Economics 78, no. 1: 29 35.
and K. Wilkins. 2009. Foresight for smart globalizatiion accelerating & enhancing pro-poor development opportunities.
Institute for Alternative futures. http://www. rockefellerfoundation. org/uploads/files/cf248c9f-3d6c-434a-9d1e-7909bb4c1feb. pdf (accessed July 2012.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 813 Boden, M.,C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman,
and T. Konnola. 2010. Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges.
Publications Office of the European union. http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf (accessed July 2012.
Journal of Business strategy, 21, no. 4: 24 8. Brinch-Pedersen, M. 2003. The Nordic case of partnerships in an international context.
Brundtland. 1987. Report of World Commission on Environment and Development our common future. Oslo: UN.
BSI. 2003. The sigma guidelines: Putting sustainable development into practice a guide for organisations. London: Published by BSI for the SIGMA project.
Bursztyn, M.,et al. 1999. C&t para o desenvolvimento sustentável Formulação e Implementação de Políticas Públicas Compatíveis com os Princípios do Desenvolvimento Sustentável definidos na Agenda 21.
Cagnin, A. H. 2000. Em Busca de uma Ética Ecocêntrica. Master thesis, Universidade de Brasília, Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Brasília.
and M. Keenan. 2012. Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play.
eds. 2008. Future-oriented technology analysis strategic intelligence for an innovative economy. Heidelberg: Springer. Cagnin, C, . and T. Könnölä. Forthcoming.
Cagnin, C. H. 2005. An information architecture to enable business sustainability. Phd thesis. Manchester: University of Manchester.
Cajazeira, J. E. R. 1997. ISO 14001 Manual de Implantação. Rio de janeiro: Qualitymark ed. Ltda. Caldow, J. C,
. and J. B. Kirby. 1996. Business culture: The key to regaining competitive Edge in Competing in Information age strategic alignment in practice, coord.
Capra, F. 1997. Web of life: A new scientific understanding of living systems. Newyork: Knopf Publishing Group.
Chehebe, J. R. 1998. Análise do Ciclo de Vida de Produtos: Ferramenta Gerencial da ISO 140000.
Covey, S. 1997. Putting principles first. In Rethinking the future, ed. R. Gibson, 34 46.
Damásio, A r. 1996. O Erro de Decartes: Emoção, Razão e o Cérebro Humano. São paulo: Editora Companhia das Letras.
D'Avignon, A. 1996. Normas Ambientais ISO 14000 Como Podem Influenciar sua Empresa. Rio de janeiro: CNI.
Dempster, B. 1998. A self-organizing systems perspective on planning for sustainability. B. Sc. Thesis, University of British columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Dempster, B. 2000. Sympoietic and autopoietic systems: A new distinction for self-organizing systems. Proceedings of theworld Congress of the Systems sciences and ISSS 2000, Toronto, Canada.
Donaire, D. 1999. Gestão Ambeinatl na Empresa. São paulo: Atlas, 2 Ed. Eckenfelder, D. J. 1997.
It's the culture, stupid. Occupational Hazards 59, no. 6: 41 4. Elkington, J. 1998.
Cannibals with forks: The triple bottom line of 21st century business. Oxford: New Society. Elrod, P. D.,II,
and D d. Tippett. 1999. An empirical study of the relationship between team performance and team maturity.
Engineering Management Journal 11, no. 1: 7 14. Entovation International. 2004. The characteristics of 5th generation management. http://www. entovation. com/assessment/fifthgen. htm (accessed December 2004.
Fell, L, . and D. Russel. 1994. An introduction to‘Maturana's'biology. In Seized by agreement,
swamped by understanding, ed. L. Fell, D. Russell, and A. Stewart. Sydney: Hawkesbury Printing, University ofwestern Sydney.
Fredrickson, B. L, . and M. Losada. 2005. Positive affect and the complex dynamics of human flourishing, American Psychologist 60, no. 7: 678 86.
Georghiou, L j. Casingena Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles, and R. Popper R.,eds. 2008. The handbook of technology foresight.
Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 814 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Gertler, M. S,
. and D. A. Wolfe. 2002. Local social knowledge management: Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises.
Paper prepared for the STRATA ETAN Expert Group action on Mobilising the Regional foresight Potential for an Enlarged European union.
Giversen, J. 2003. The world's first ethical accounting statement. In Corporate values and responsibility the case of Denmark, ed. M. Morsing and C. Thyssen, 1st ed.,33 41.
Haig, A.,Jr. 1984. Caveat: realism, reagan and foreign policy. Weidenfeld and Nicholson. Hardis, J. 2003.
Social multipartite partnerships. In Corporate values and responsibility the case of Denmark, ed. M. Morsing and C. Thyssen, 1st ed.,199 210.
Hock, D. 1999. Birth of the chaordic age. San francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler. Hoffman, N. P. 2000.
Anexamination of the‘sustainable competitive advantage'concept: Past, present, and future. Academy of Marketing Science Review 2000, no. 4: 1 16.
Holliday, C. O.,Jr, S. Schmidheiny, and P. Watts. 2002. Walking the talk: The business case for sustainable development.
San francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler. ISO. 2012. International organisation for Standardisation. http://www. iso. org/iso/iso catalogue. htm (accessed June 2012.
Katzenbach, J. R, . and D. K. Smith. 1993. The wisdom of teams: Creating the high performance organization.
Newyork: Harper Business. Könnölä, T.,A. Salo, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, and E. Vilkkumaa. 2012.
Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 222 31.
Kwak, Y. H, . and C. W. Ibbs. 2002. Project management process maturity (PM) 2 model.
Journal of Management in Engineering, 18, no. 3: 150 5. Larsen, A. H. 2003. Finding and re-finding transparency at Aarstiderne.
In Corporate values and responsibility the case of Denmark, ed. M. Morsing and C. Thyssen, 1st ed.,155 62.
Losada, M. 1999. The complex dynamics of high performance teams. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 30, no. 9: 179 92.
Losada, M. 2001. The art of business coaching. Second general conference of the specialization course, Brasilia.
Losada, M. and E. Heaphy. 2004. The role of positivity and connectivity in the performance of business teams:
Loveridge, D. 1999. On sustainability. http://phps. portals. mbs. ac. uk/Denisloveridge (accessed June 2012,
go to personal page). Lund, J. E. 2003. Partnerships in practice. In Corporate values and responsibility the case of Denmark, ed. M. Morsing and C. Thyssen, 1st ed.,179 91.
Samfundslitteratur, Narayana Press. Maimon, D. 1999. ISO 14011 Passo a Passo da Implantação nas Pequenas e Médias Empresas.
Rio de janeiro: Qualitymark ed. Ltda. Maturama, H r. 1998. Da Biologia à Psicologia. 3a ed.,Porto Alegre:
Editora Artes Médicas. Maturana, H r, . and F. J. G. Varela. 1997. De máquinas e Seres Vivos Autopoiese:
a Organização do Vivo. 3a ed.,Porto Alegre: Editora Artes Médicas. Maturana, H r, . and F. Varela. 1980.
Autopoiesis and cognition: The realization of the living. Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel. Mcstravic, S. 1999.
The value marketing chain in health care: The value marketing chain concept finds a place in the health care environment.
Olsen, L. H. 2003. Corporate accountability the case of Denmark. In Corporate values and responsibility the case of Denmark, ed. M. Morsing and C. Thyssen, 1st ed.,229 39.
and J. M. Geringer. 1993. Harnessing the power of your value chain. Long Range Planning 26, no. 2: 59 68.
and G. J. Takacs. 1990. The ten stages of change. Nursing Management 21, no. 4: 33 38.
Porter, M. E. 1980. Competitive strategy: Techniques for analysing industries and competitors. Newyork: Free Press. Porter, M. E. 1985a.
Porter, M. E. 1991. Towards a dynamic theory of strategy. Strategic management Journal 12 (S2), 95 117.
Porter, M. E. 1997. What is strategy? Harvard Business Review, 61 78. Rocha, I. 2003.
Gestão de Organizações: Pensamento Científico, Inovação, Ciência e Tecnologia, Auto-Organização, Complexidade e Caos, Ética e Dimensão Humana.
Editora Atlas S. A. Rosenberg, R. 2003. Match your change strategy to your organization's maturity.
Saritas, O. 2006. Systems thinking for foresight. Phd thesis, Manchester Institute of Innovation research. Shelton, C. 1997.
Quantum leaps. Butterworth-Heinemann. SIGMA. 2001. The SIGMA project sustainability in practice. The SIGMA guidelines: Pilot Draft, SIGMA Project Management Team. http://www. projectsigma. co. uk/Guidelines/default. asp (accessed January 2004) Tuomi, I. 2011.
Foresight in an unpredictable world. Proceedings of the fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, Seville, Spain.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 815 Verweire, K,
. and L. V. Berghe. 2003. Integrated performance management: Adding a new dimension. Management Decision 41, no. 8: 782 90. von Zedtwitz, M. 2002.
Organizational learning through post-project reviews in R&d. R&d Management 32, no. 3: 255 68.
Zohar, D. 1990. O Ser Quântico: Uma Visão Revolucionária da Naureza Humana e da Consciência Baseada na Nova Física.
São paulo: Editora Best sellers. Appendix 1. Research overall strategy Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 816 C. Cagnin
and D. Loveridge Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
to enable business networks 817 Appendix 2. Existing business sustainability tools and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed
EM Operations Measure Performance GRI GRI GRI Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 818 C. Cagnin
whom and how Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 820 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Appendix 5. Management framework in context Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011