Evaluation of Laboratory directed research and development investment areas at Sandia Kevin W. Boyack*,Nabeel Rahal Sandia National Laboratories, 1 P o box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185, United states
Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 15 september 2004; accepted 16 september 2004 Abstract Sandia National Laboratories conducts a variety of research projects each year under its Laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) program.
Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies.
Tools, techniques, and specific analyses are presented here. We find that these tools and techniques hold great promise for aiding the future direction of the science and technology enterprise.
D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Laboratory-directed research and development; Investment; Sandia 1. Introduction The Laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories conducts world-class research on a variety of subjects that are relevant to Sandia's missions and potentially useful to other national needs.
Much of the technology that has been developed 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 at Sandia has its roots in the LDRD program.
Research investment decisions made 10 and 15 years ago are having a direct impact on national security programs today.
LDRD projects have a maximum duration of 3 years. Continuation proposals and an annual review are required for each existing project that has completed not its term.
Year Year Year Year Year Year PIA PI PI Author Source Text Text Text Text Abstract Text a PI=principal investigator.
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1123 IA leads were designed to not only benchmark the visualizations,
N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1124 3. 1. Data collection Two different sets of data were compiled from multiple sources
no project reports are available for the current year. These data are proprietary to Sandia,
We also used an optimized stopword list prior to construction of the initial term Fig. 1. Process of putting data into a Vxinsight map. 3 FY=fiscal year,
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1125 document matrix.
and sliding through sequences of years with a slider. Relationships among the individual data records may be displayed as arrows between documents
During our meeting with the CIS area leader, we first K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1126 gathered information
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1127 greatest overlaps with CIS,
The extent of overlap between CIS and ES has remained roughly constant over the period from 2001 to 2004,
The conceptual overlap between EP and MST has increased significantly in the past 2 years, especially in the area of integration for product application.
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1128 Another significant outcome of the meeting with the IA leader was his desire
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1129 extract the hidden relationships within the landscape visualization
N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1130 The first level of analysis identified a macroscale understanding of the overlaps as well as the unique competencies and capabilities that each IA possessed.
N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1131 areas of interest to Sandia since the map indicates that they are well outside our core competency areas.
The area inside the dashed box is explored further in Fig. 7. K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1132 competencies,
Some of these were anticipated by the CIS investment team in that the FY2005 calls (issued in March 2004) reflected an increased interest in informatics,
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1133 rolling up all of the IAS to an overall Sandia category.
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1134 relationships.
or to suggest potential collaborative opportunities between laboratories. 5. Future directions This is the first year that we have applied such analyses to our LDRD process.
coupled with the tacit knowledge that comes from years of personal experience as experts in a technical field,
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1135 References 1 K. Bfrner, C. Chen, K
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Technol. 53 (9)( 2002) 764 774.6 J. Dowling, Information retrieval using latent semantic indexing and a semi-discrete matrix decomposition, Unpublished Bachelor's thesis
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Sci. 101 (Suppl. 1)( 2004) 5192 5199. Kevin W. Boyack is a Principal Member of Technical Staff (PMTS) in the Computation, Computers, Information,
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28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Toni Ahlqvist, Minna Halonen, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, Johanna Kohl, Raija Koivisto, Jouko Myllyoja & Nina Wessberg (2012) Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture
, and knowledge spaces: constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 821-841, DOI:
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toni. ahlqvist@vtt. fi ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715490
http://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 822 T. Ahlqvist et al. future.
but the unrealised options also‘haunt'the present in the organisation's Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
1) partial structural openness that endorses flexibility in the organisational Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 824 T. Ahlqvist et al. structures and (2) an anticipatory culture that builds on an anticipatory agency
For example, Aaltonen (2007) calls these places of combination‘chronotope spaces'.'The second component is a horizontal anticipatory culture that connects the critical knowledge in an RTO.
is an adaptive process-based methodology well suited for systemic contexts (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012):
varying roughly from a few months to 2 years. In these checkpoints, the roadmap is assessed against the changed circumstances.
For example, the long term in the context of a highly dynamic field, such as mobile Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and as a process methodology. 1 Roadmapping combines different modes of knowledge with specific activity layers (Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
Phaal, Farrukh, and Probert 2004. In other words, roadmaps are tools for the combination of organisational knowledge that may be‘unlinkable'with other strategic methods (see e g.
Petrick and Echols 2004; Phaal, Farrukh, and Probert 2006. As a process methodology, roadmapping consists of several modules.
Modularisation allows one to form a tailored‘response chain'to answer different kinds of research and development problems (see, e g.
Lee and Park 2005. Modularisation also makes space for the combination of different foresight methods (Ahlqvist et al. 2007a, 2007b;
Ahola et al. 2010. Furthermore, modularisation enables the tailoring of the roadmapping process to suit the needs of the different actors
and different tasks in the innovation network (see Könnölä et al. 2009). It is possible to make a distinction between two roadmapping cultures.
Phaal, Farrukh, and Probert 2001. In this culture, the roadmappiin process is a tool to endorse product development.
It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives describiin the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
and micro-level developments (see Blackwell et al. 2008). This idea of a roadmap as a crystallised strategy chart separates roadmapping from other‘generic'foresight methods, such as Delphi or scenario processes.
yet roadmapping is still more of a technique for strategic focussing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 826 T. Ahlqvist et al.
Figure 2. Using roadmaps in strategy processes (Ahlqvist 2009. than for system simulation. However, combining roadmapping with system dynamic modelling is definitely a potential path for future methodological development.
and empowering people (see Ahlqvist et al. 2010). This idea links strategy roadmapping to organisation and strategy studies, especially to strategy crafting (see e g.
Heracleous and Jacobs 2008; Whittington and Cailluet 2008. Therefoore the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping should not be viewed as a‘pure'foresight methodology,
but more as a hybrid of foresight and organisational strategy crafting. Roadmapping can be used in strategy processes, for example, in the following ways (Figure 2:
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces 827 In process-based roadmapping,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 828 T. Ahlqvist et al. Table 1. Depiction of knowledge spaces.
In this space, the technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
at 05:05 03 december 2014 830 T. Ahlqvist et al. structures. The third scope is called systemic I,
This category also contains a methodology of innovation policy roadmapping (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012.
The aim of the process was to form an outlook of development directions in building services, its research needs and business potential to the year 2020 (Paiho et al. 2007.
The building services roadmap was realised in three phases in 2006 2007. In the first phase, a large background review was completed.
Second, it perceived the market as a platform for new Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and knowledge spaces 831 Figure 4. The roadmapping process in the Building Services Roadmap (Paiho et al. 2007,
and indoor services Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 832 T. Ahlqvist et al. services and service providers.
During the workshops in 2009, some 30 VTT researchers and management representatives built shared understanding of the field.
potential collaborators such as universities, funding agencies and the societal actors in the field of service science (Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
The integrative methodology rested on the model of expansive learning (Engeström 2001. In the process, two practical methods were added to the model of expansive learning.
First, impact evaluation was used to gain a systematic view of the past (see Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
The first roadmapping phase traced the big picture of the service landscape from the present moment (2009) until 2025.
and attempted to define markets Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and to foster business decisions based on a novel‘service perspective'formed in the process (Myllyoja, Wessberg, and Pajakkala 2012).
The project was realised in 2011 2012 byvtt and 10 companies represented the business network. The construction machinerywas defined as machines, tools,
developing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 834 T. Ahlqvist et al. Table 4. Summary of the knowledge spaces of the SSB network.
The temporal span of the roadmap was about 10 years, until the 2020s. Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities The construction machinery roadmap can be approached as systemic
Visionary ideas about technology-enabled services could also be one way to stimulate Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
The process was realised in 2005 2007 between VTT Technical research Centre of Finlaand FOI (Sweden SINTEF (Norway), and DTI (Denmark.
There were five research phases Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 836 T. Ahlqvist et al.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces 837 Table 6. Summary of the knowledge spaces in the Nordic ICT Foresight.
and even towards fostering a visionary innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 838 T. Ahlqvist et al. culture at the level of nation-states.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces 839 The article created insights for managing systemic entities, such as organisations or companies, in systemic environments.
Barker and Smith (1995), Kostoff and Schaller (2001), Farrukh, Phaal, and Probert (2003), Kostoff, Boylan, and Simons (2004);
Phaal, Farrukh, and Probert (2004), Lee and Park (2005) and Phaal and Muller (2009). Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 840 T. Ahlqvist et al.
Acknowledgements Toni Ahlqvist wishes to thank the Academy of Finland (grant SA132628) for the financial support for this work.
Notes on contributors Toni Ahlqvist is a senior scientist at VTT. Currently, he works as a postdoctoral researcher at the Academy of Finland.
She has more than 20 years'experience in safety, security, risk assessment, and foresight-related research in VTT.
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Technologies and markets. VTT Tiedotteita 2379. Edita, Helsinki In Finnish. Petrick, I. J, . and A e. Echols. 2004.
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Farrukh, and D. Probert. 2001. Technology roadmapping: Linking technology resources to business objectives. Cambridge: University of Cambridge. http://www. ifm. eng. cam. ac. uk/ctm/publications/tplan/trm white paper. pdf (accessed August 18, 2009.
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28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Ying Guo, Tingting Ma, Alan L. Porter & Lu Huang (2012) Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 843-861, DOI:
10.1080/09537325.2012.715491 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715491 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
We treat DSSC abstract records through 2010 based on searches in four databases. We employ a set of multi-database NEST search results,
huanglu628@163. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715491 http
://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 844 Y. Guo et al.
Our endeavours should be considered within the FTACONTEXT (see http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/).Over the years,
FTA TOOLS have expanded from technology forecasting of incrementally advancing technologies (e g. consider Moore's law describing some six decades of continual advances in semiconductor capabilities)( Roper et al. 2011).
Such technology opportunitiie analysis (Porter et al. 1994) for NESTS poses notable challenges. FTA increasingly includes science-based technologies
Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004; Cagnin et al. 2008). ) The analytical components that we address should be considered in the context of performing FTA (Porter 2010)
and applying it to serve technology policy or management ends (Scapolo, Porter, and Rader 2008). Recently, Robinson (Robinson et al. 2011) has introduced the approach of‘FIP'.
'That paper provides conceptual background for the endeavour of combining‘Tech Mining'(Porter and Cunninngha 2005) and‘multipath mapping'(Robinson and Propp 2008).
It explores the promise of this approach through its application to two illustrative innovation situations:
nanobiosensors and deep brain stimulation. This paper illustrates application of the FIP approach for a further case, that of nanotechnology-enhanced solar cells(‘NESCS'.
'In particular, we focus on a specific type‘DSSCS'.'Anticipating innovation pathways can assist R&d managers as they set priorities,
Van Raan 1988. With the expansion of databases that compile abstract records and of desktop computing power,
Tech Mining (Porter and Cunningham 2005) is our shorthand for such activities.‘‘Research profiling'(Porter, Kongthon,
and Lu 2002) examines a technology of interest by search and retrieval of abstract records on the topic.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 845 2. 2. Analysing NESTS NESTS comprise a loose category (Foxon et al. 2005;
Robinson and Propp 2008. Classical technology forecasting methods were devised to address incrementally advancing technological systems. These methods keyed on technical system parameters, somewhat more than on socioeconnomi system aspects.
2007) articulate‘functions of innovation systems'.'Some researchers look into what kind of innovation transfer is most effective (e g.
Liu, Tang, and Zhu 2008; O'Shea, Chugh, and Allen 2008. Early identification of likely innovations can help discern opportunities, foster energy transitions,
and foresee societal impacts beneficial, as well as undesirable while the course of technology development remains more malleable (Collingridge 1980;
van Merkerk and van Lente 2005. We note several innovation system conceptual modelling efforts pertaining particularly to energy technology,
given our case focus on solar cells. Several scholars seek to understand the driving forces and the blocking mechanisms that influence the development and diffusion of sustainable technologies (Jacobsson and Johnson 2000;
Foxon et al. 2005; Markard 2006. Among the various approaches to capture the essentials of innovation systems,
the technology delivery system(‘TDS')has demonstrated enduring value by capturing and representing (1) key enterprise (to‘deliver'an innovation) and (2) contextual factors (impinging on such delivery).
In our paper, the concept of TDS recognises the inherent uncertainties of innovation pathways. Ezra (1975) offered a TDS to help explain why solar energy innovation in residential housing applications was not notably successful.
and Rossini (1985) developed a TDS for microcomputer technology in developing countries, spotlighting the importance of language barriers.
2011) elaborate on a means to formulate a TDS for a given NEST the approach is qualitative
and available human knowledge of the particular innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 846 Y. Guo et al. system, within the context of a more general innovation context (i e. the socioeconomic context in
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 847 Step J,
Boolean term search approach (Porter et al. 2007) to identify DSSCRELLATE activity in four databases: Web of Science (WOS), EI Compendex, Derwent World Patent Index (DWPI), and Factiva.
This showed Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 848 Y. Guo et al. high precision (minimal noise.
We created search algoritthm somewhat tailored for each of the four databases (details in Appendix 1). Data-cleaning in Vantagepoint software (Porter et al. 2007) refined the data downloaded from the four databases.
This analysis treats DSSC abstract records through 2010 based on these searches: 4104 documents (including 3134 articles) appearing in the Science Citation Index (SCI) of WOS (fundamental research emphasis;
In the long term, we believe that general Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 849 Figure 2. TDS for DSSCS in the USA. economic forces will favour innovation
we focus selectively as such analyses are fairly well known (Porter, Kongthon, and Lu 2002). We begin by showing trends based on the annual activity from each database in Figure 3. It is clear that the research publications drawn from the SCI
The data from both DWPI and Factiva show a small peak in 2005 and suddenly decrease in 2006.
Actually, the data from Compendex also grow slower in 2006. We Are downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 850 Y. Guo et al.
Figure 3. DSSC publication and patent trends. not sure why this is so; we observe that the Japanese government did cancel solar energy subsidies in 2006.
After 2006, DWPI patents resume growth, although the data in 2009 and 2010 were collected not completely by Thomson Reuters at the time of the downloading.
After 2008, the Factiva records suddenly climb quicker than the activity in the other databases does.
The rapid growth of DWPI and Factiva data suggests that DSSC technology is becoming more mature
and is possibly entering into an era of rapid commercialisation. We applied science overlay mapping (Leydesdorff
and Rafols 2009) to locate DSSC R&d among the disciplines. This approach uses the Subject Categories assigned to journals bywos.
The Subject Categories are grouped into‘macro-disciplines'based on the degree of co-citation of the Subject Categories in a large sample of articles indexed bywos (Porter and Raflos 2009.
4. 3. Profile innovation actors and activities (Step D) Since 2009, WOS has been providing a funding acknowledgement field as it indexes publications.
The US National science Foundation (NSF) shows forth on 42 of 1691 publications since 2009. The swiss NSF accounts for 35 of some 41 papers with Swiss funding;
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 851 Figure 4. DSSC science overlay map.
Table 1 partitions publication and citation shares of these 11 top institutions for (1) the period extending through 2008 and (2) that since then (2009 2011, with 2011 incomplete.
The swiss Federal Institute of technology is certainly the dominant single institution researching DSSCS. 4 Especially in recent years,
Since 2009, EPFL has published 21 papers that have received already 10 or more cites; CAS, 12 such papers;
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 852 Y. Guo et al. Table 1. Leading DSSC research institutions (showing percentages within these 11 organisations.
Cites share Cites share Pubs share Pubs share through 2008 2009 onwards through 2008 2009 onwards(%)CAS 6. 0 19.9 19.5 25.3 Swiss Federal Institute of technology (EPFL) 49.3
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 853 Once such highly active players have been identified,
%of their patents in the most recent years; leading inventor teams; and notable collaborators. Research profiling can extend to the country level.
SCI tallies since 2009 have found China to be dominant with 440 papers including at least one Chinese author.
This could help us to identify potential partners with complementary interests at different places along this technology development progression, thereby serving‘Open innovation'purposes (Chesbrough 2006.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 854 Y. Guo et al. Figure 5. Focused DSSC cross-charting:
and demonstrated by Robinson and Propp (2008). Their expert workshops involve a wider spectrum of experts and stakeholders for a more extended interaction (e g. full day.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 855 sulphide Figure 6. Ingredients for the multipath exploration.
Doug Robinson crafted this (Porter et al. 2010. 4. 6. Explore innovation components (Step G) Figure 7 provides the framework to explore sensitivities and options.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 December 2014 856 Y. Guo et al. Figure 7. Multipath map for DSSCS.
Figure 7 raises the desirability of life-cycle Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 857 analyses to consider likely life span, maintainability, material transformation
(e g. due to outside exposure over many years), and eventual recycling and disposal means. Of note,
when we compared topical concentrations in the SCI DSSC publications between 2005 2007 and 2010 2011,
including nanobiosensors (Huang et al. 2010), deep brain stimulation (Robinson et al. 2011), and NESCS (Guo, Huang, and Porter 2010).
This paper pursues FTA pertaining to the development of DSSCS. DSSCS reflect a variety of component technologies,
Rantanen and Domb 2002) to help locate current capabilities along innovation pathways. This paper extends our FIP approach.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 858 Y. Guo et al. FIP aims to inform ST&I management (private sector) and policy (public sector.
and text will need to be crafted to the preferences of target users (Porter and Cunningham 2005).
and steps can be generalisable. 2. See Appendix 1 forwos search term. 3. These science overlay maps have been described elsewhere (Leydesdorff and Rafols 2009;
Porter and Rafols 2009; Rafols and Meyer 2010; Rafols, Porter, and Leydesdorff 2010. The base map used here reflects SCI journal crosscitaatio in 2007,
aggregated into 175 Subject Categories. Based on factor analysis, these are grouped into macrodisciipline (the labels shown in Figure 4). For more information,
or to make your own science overlay maps, visit www. interdisciplinaryscience. net or www. idr. gatech. edu/.4. DSSCS were reported first there in a hugely cited 1991 article (O'Regan and Gratzel 1991);
Gratzel and colleagues continue to lead the field. 5. Table 2 does not include the full updated information through 2009 and 2010.
Notes on contributors Ying Guo is a faculty member in the School of management and Economics, Beijing Institute of technology of China.
Her current specialty is technology management and assessment, particularly focusing on how to forecast the likely innovation pathways for emerging nano-related technologies and applications.
and books, including Tech Mining (Wiley, 2005). He and the co-authors are preparing a Second Edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology (Wiley.
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