Toward networked foresight? Exploring the use of futures research in innovation networks Patrick van der Duin a b, 1,,
and how corporate foresight affects companies'innovative capabilities 5. In 2003, Chesbrough coined the term‘Open innovation'to describe the paradigm‘‘that firms can
as firms look to advance their technology''6. Since Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Available online 24 january 2014 Keywords: Innovation networks Futures research Foresight Networked foresight Open innovation A b s T R A c T Along with the rise of the now popular‘open'paradigm in innovation management,
Furthermore, effective instruments for the reinteggratio of knowledge into the networks'partner organizations are needed. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
2014.01.008 0016-3287/2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. the introduction of the term, studies using it have attracted increasing academic and corporate attention 7,
Since the 1940s, the way people and organizations have looked at the future has changed from a technology-oriented attempt to predict the future toward a more exploratory perspective that incorporates many different societal aspects (e g.
Up to the 1980s, futures research focused on forecasting future developments by applying s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models 18 20.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 63 was redefined as‘‘a set of organizational routines and processes by
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 64 investigated in terms of type, scope and foresight role. The goal is to identify
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 65 once-set image of the future. At the same time, changes in the image of the future for example, due to an adapted vision as a result of leadership activities can mean that the transition path has to be adapted
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 66 field and carries out various foresight activities organized in separate programs and projects.
a reorganization in 2007 resulted in the aim to cooperate with external organizations. Initially, this resulted in a partnership with Deltares,
Given that the involvement of outside organizations in the WINN program was limited in reality (at least until 2010),
This program also integrated external parties starting in 2007 to a new innovation program that is facilitated
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 67 to act as guards against defective outside political influences while also making sure that the internal components of the network were aligned. 4. 1. 5. Networked foresight activities Foresight activities inside Rijkswaterstaat
EICT In 2004, the five German founding partners of the European Center for Information and Communication Technologies (EICT) Deutsche telekom AG (DTAG), Daimler AG (DAG), Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft
and potential new products and services within WINN Singular activity 1. 4 Series of future workshops Determined relevant societal developments and innovation needs that the activities originating from WINN give rise to Project 5 In 2008
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 68 innovation process, from futures research, topic identification and business field exploration to consortia building,
education and business activities emerged in 2005 51. In 2008, the European parliament and Council established the EIT as an independent agency in the EU. In the summer of 2009,
an official call for KICS was placed. Consortia of partners from academia, industry and research institutes were encouraged to create open innovation ecosystems that integrate the knowledge triangle consisting of education
At the end of 2009, the first three KICS in the areas of climate change (Climate KIC), energy (KIC Innoenergy) and Information and Communication Technologies (EIT ICT Labs;
They were supposed to be fully operational by October 2010. The EIT governing board developed an overarching Strategic Table 4 Networked foresight activities at the EICT Gmbh.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 69 Innovation Agenda (SIA), reviewed and revised with support of the KICS once they were established.
Until 2010, the selection of innovation activities was made by the management team in various workshops based on proposals that were submitted by the partner organizations.
To enhance transparency a formalized stage gate process was introduced in 2011. Since then, proposals for future activities have to meet a set of predefined criteria
Transition path For this case, a transition path has yet to develop due to its relatively short existence of three years at this point.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 70 executive steering board and a chief executive officer (CEO), who leads a management team with 12 members.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 71 Given the doubtful existence of a clear vision at the beginning of the program the transition path was lacking direction.
EICT When EICT was founded in 2004 its mission and vision were developed based on the aim to create a highly visible innovation center in ICT in Europe.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 72 provide frameworks for open innovation emerged in the last few years, e g.,
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 73 5. 3. Case 3: EIT ICT Labs The EIT ICT Labs have an elaborate mission
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 74 3. Some networked foresight activities, e g.,, the innovation radar, are used to provide the basis for the process model of the network especially
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 75 the network of constant network partners or on a contractual basis. The strategic role of foresight for the corporate strategy of the partners is the focus of attention.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 76 In the literature review two paths that indicate networked foresight as the next generation of futures research were identified:
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Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010003-04 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 3 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
3 6 DOI: 10.3152/030234210x484766; http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Introduction to a special section:
Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making Karel Haegeman, Jennifer C Harper and Ron Johnston Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals,
This special section is selected based on papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain,
and that there is an urgeen need to inform decision-makers of the potential value of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES (Johnston and Cagnin, 2010).
The papers that form this special section were selected from those presented at the Third Internatiiona Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis held 16 17 october 2008 in Seville, Spain.
Jennifer. harper@gov. mt. Professor Ron Johnston is at the Australian Centre for Innovattio Ltd (ACIIC), Faculty of engineering, University of Sydneey Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia;
Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 4 anticipate and shape future technological developmennts mainly, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment.
or the type of knowledge source (expertise-interaction/creativityeviddence (Eerola and Miles, 2008; Popper, 2008;
Saritas, 2006. Scapolo and Porter (2008) propose 13 families grouping more than 50 FTA METHODS, building on a typology proposed during the first FTA conference in Seville by the Technology Future Analysis methods Working group (see Table 1). Keenan
and Popper (2007) defined six principles to distinguish FTA from other policy-support techniqques future-orientation, participation, evidencebassed multidisciplinarity, coordinated mobilisation of people and resources,
and action orientation. Not all techniques described in the classifications mentioone comply to the same extent with all six principlles For example,
many quantitative techniques usually have a small participatory base, while purely qualitative approaches tend to have a weaker evidence base.
as is shown in the examples in Table 2. Some authors recommend the use of speciifi combinations of tools and approaches in order to build more robust methodologies (Rader and Porteer 2008.
He has worked for more than 30 years in pioneering better understtandin and application of the ways that science and technology contribute to economic and social development, of the possibilities for managing research and technology more effectively,
Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence
Technology watch, tech mining (Porter and Cunningham, 2005), web mining (van de Lei and Cunningham, 2006) Descriptive Bibliometrics
multipath mapping (Robinson and Propp, 2006) Scenarios Scenario management, quantitatively based scenarios, different emphases and dark scenarios (Punie et al.
2006), science theatres, video (Steyaert et al. 2006; Decker and Ladikas, 2004) Valuing/decision-aiding/economic analyses Cost-benefit analysis, SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities,
threats) and scorecard analyses (Sripaipan, 2006), analytical hierarchy process, data envelopment analysis, multicriteria decision analyses Combinations Scenario-simulation (gaming),
trend impact analysis Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 5 Six functions of FTA for policy-making are:
informing policy; facilitating policy implementation; embedding participation in policy-making; supporting policy definition; reconfiguring the policy system; and having a symbolic function.
These functions were an important outcome of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis held in 2006.
The exteen to which one or more of these functions have been fulfilled can be considered as the degree of impaac on policy-making.
**Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 6 scans in the UK, The netherlands and Denmark, as developed in the ERA NET Forsociety Project.
References Decker, M and M Ladikas (eds) 2004. Bridges between Science Society and Policy. Technology assessment:
Berlin, Heidelberg, New york. Eerola, A and I Miles 2008. Methods and tools contributing to FTA.
Paper presented at Third International Seville Conferennc on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008, Seville, Spain.
Johnston, R and C Cagnin 2010. The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: addressing the Cassandra challenge. Futures (in press.
2007. Guide to Research Infrastruccture Foresight. Brussels: European commission. Popper, R 2008. Foresight methodology. In The Handbook of Technology foresight:
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Porter, A l and S w Cunningham 2005. Tech Mining: Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage. New york: Wiley. Punie, Y,
I Maghiros and S Delaitre 2006. Dark scenarios as a constructive tool for future-oriented technology analysis: safeguaard in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI.
Paper presennte at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Rader, M and A Porter 2008. Fitting future-oriented analysis methods to study types. In Future-Oriented Technology Analysiis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnson, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds..
Saritas, O 2006. Systems thinking for foresight, Phd thesis. PREST, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester. Scapolo, F and A l Porter 2008.
New methodological developmeent in FTA. In Future-oriented technology analysis: Strateegi Intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnson, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds..
Sripaipan, C 2006. Foresight in a nonprofit organisation: a case of the Technology Promotion Association (Thailand Japan.
held 28 29 Septembbe 2006, Seville, Spain. Steyaert, S, S Eggermont and H Vandebosch 2006.
Towards the desired future of the elderly and ICT: policy recommendations based on a dialogue with senior citizens.
Van de Lei, T E and S w Cunningham 2006. Use of the internet for future-oriented technology analysis.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain
Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010007-12 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 7 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
N 2004, THE ERA NET FORSOCIETY1 began its mission to develop sustainable cooperation between national foresight programming bodies in 15 European countries.
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisiionmaking, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 8 Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats,
opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizzo scanning may explore novel and unexpected issuues as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals.
Most of the broader governmental horizon scans were initiated by ministries of defence or their agencies (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centrre 2006;
Defence S&t Agency Singapore, 2009; Spring et al. 2007; Quiggin, 2007. Other examples were initiated by ministries or departments,
such as the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) in the UK (DEFRA, 2006), the Ministry of Economic Affairs of The netherlands (Ministerie van Economische Zaken, 1998), The french Department of Transport
and Maritime Affaair (Direction générale de l'Industrie, des Technologiie de l'information et des Postes, 2000) and of Industry (Ministère de l
'Écologie, de l'Energie, du Développement durable et de l'Aménagement du territooire 2006). Horizon scanning also appears in departtment of health (and ageing), e g. in New zealand, Australia4 and Canada,
5 but these scanning activities seem to have limited a very scope (only assesssin new health technologies).
Departmental Victor van Rij is senior advisor foresight of the Knowledge Directtorat of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science in The netherlands.
and Public policy February 2010 9 horizon scans can be narrower in scope (only looking for new technologies),
trend monitoring, trend research and strategic early warning (Schwartz, 2006; 2008). ) The Government office of Science in the UK started its national horizon scanning in 2004.6 This activity covers a wide range of S&t forecasts (Delta Scan) and future developments across all policy domains (Sigma Scan.
7 In the same year, the Netherlands8 started a national horizon scanning activity that covered a wide range of (potential) futuur problems, threats and opportunities in all poliic domains (societal sectors) and in S&t.
Denmark started a horizon scan process in 2006, focusing on the societal needs of the future and Emerging s&t.
NISTEP (2005) in Japan executed a scanning-like activity during 2005, which covers expectations across a wide range of societal areas
and provides a broad scan of S&t developments and opportunities. The NISTEP exercise combines this broad-scope foresight with a thorough analysis of strengths and weaknesses of Japanese research and development (R&d
Belgium and Switzerland (Habeggeer 2009) while other countries are building up scan-based policy documents (Finland (Academy of Finland and TEKES, 2006), Canada (Smith,
2006) or have carried recently out scan-like exercises that were used solely to design foresight programs (Germany
Well-known examples include the Internaationa Council for Science (2002) exercise that focused on societal issues and research agenda settiin and also its foresight analysis (International council for science, 2004.
A more recent case is the Horizonscan of the Environment Research Fundeers Forum in the UK (Environment Research Fundeers Forum, 2007.
Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 10 Joining up the data To compare the data of the different scans
and the data in the report on Denmark (OECD, 2007) and The netherlands'Horizzo Scan Report 2007 (In't Veld et al.
2008). ) To facilitate the comparison, some relabelling of the categories that were used was necessary (see Table 1). From these categories13 we derived the followwin set of main categories:
it was not difficult to label the majority of issues according to these main categories that are nearly identical to the themes as used in the STEEPV approach (see Loveridge, 2002).
administrative and legal Public services Politics State Global Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 11 first discussion with this network was held
in March 2007 and a second in October 2007. The possible use of the horizon scan data at the European commission (EC) level was discussed in interviews with representattive of different directorates within the EC.
2006) instrumeen that deliberately challenge policy-makers to look at the uncertainties and the unexpected and deveelo resilient policies towards sustainability.
and Public policy February 2010 12 discussions with representatives from different ministrries The primary data for The netherlands scan were collected by the COS Horizon scanning team
and impact (taking into account the sustainability dimensioon) At the end of the 2007 round, the issues were published in a final report.
In Denmark, the scan issues were used as input for the selection of prioritised research themes in a four-year cycle of research funding (see Figure 3). The scan data were used alongside the outcome of a public internet‘hearing'process that delivered an additional input
2010 13 public, companies, researchers, universities and organisaations Preselection of prioritised themes took place within an expert group that delivered input for a workshop with a user panel
2007) in that it does not solely focus on trends, but also on potential breakthroughs, analysis of risks, uncertainties and unexpected events that are considered as potentially disruptive in the future.
Morton Wied Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 14 responsible, whatever its political constitution. Issuue were selected on the basis of indications in the literature of either positive and/or negative impact on these values.
Positioning of the scans The UK HSC was established in 2005 with a central function to use horizon scanning
COS was the umbrella organisation of the so-called sector councils for R&d that were established by Dutch law during the 1980s to provide strategic knowledge questions for departmental policies in a number of policy domains (environment, agriculture, health,
the horizon scan started in 2004 to guide this search in a systematic way. In 2007 The netherlands government decided to abandon the system of‘sector councils
'and to create new provisions within all ministries (so-called knowledge chambers). The horizon scanning task will be maintained
cultural and social respeects The horizon scan was mandated by the Danish parliament in 2006 to feed directly into the research agenda setting.
2006), also due to more general problems around the interaction of scientific advice, government and society (De Wit, 2005) it is clear that horizon scanning is seen as a valued but also vulnerable learning process (DEFRA,
2006) which seems to be embedded in important decision-making processes in at least three European countries. For the OECD DASTI horizon scan it was clear from the beginning that the results of the scan would be used as an important input for the process of priorittisin new research themes for the Danish fouryeea cycle of the research funding councils
which is acknowledged in the research 2015 document (Daniis Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, 2008) that sets the stage for research prioritisation in Denmark for the coming four years in a clear relationnshi to the challenges facing
2006). ) The procees involved many stakeholders who have been influenced by the discussions and issues that were selected.
The report contained recommendations for Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 15 specific foresight activities which still have to be executed.
for further development of the joint horizon scan has been developed within the Forsociety Netwoor (van Rij, 2008. This proposal suggests developpin a network of countries
and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.
and which will focus on the use of scan data to address particular challenges that were indicated in the EC's World 2025 exercise (Fauroult, 2009).
and evoking important questiion around the future than in providing clear-cut Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 17 answers (Medina Vasquez, 2006).
Alerting function The fact that some of the scan issues published in 2005 (e g. risk of a financial crisis caused by poor lending practices
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