Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010019-12 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 19 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
19 30 DOI: 10.3152/030234210x484793; http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries:
anticipating value chain transformations and need for policy action Fabienne Abadie, Michael Friedewald and K Matthias Weber This paper discusses the approach adopted to carry out a techno-economic foresight on the creative content industries, within the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
The novelty of the methodology lies in the mix of tools used, the embedding in an adaptive foresight framework and the implementation of a real-time Delphi
which lead to interesting methodological lessons. The project succeeded in defining scenarios for the creative content industries, offering distinct trajectories and raising different policy challenges.
The impact of the foresight on policy was limited as it did not lead to direct policy measures,
nevertheless, it confirmed some issues of major importance to the various stakeholders. HE INFORMATION AND communication technologies (ICT) sector accounted for about 5%of the size of the European economy and 3%of total employment in 2005 (Turlea et al.
2009) about 5%of the size of the European economy and 3%of total employment in 2005 (Turlea et al.
2009). ) In the period 2000 2003 this sector contributte to more than 25%of Europe's productivity growth, making it the leading sector in the EU econoom both in terms of labour productivity (almost twice the whole economy average
) and research and development (R&d) expenditure, thus contributing most to the development of the EU knowledge economy.
At the same time creativity is a key driver of growth and competitiveness of the knowledge econommy In this context the creative content sector is expected to become a major source of nextgenerratio jobs across the world.
The creative industrrie are estimated to account for more than 7%of the world's gross domestic product and in OECD countries they have an annual growth rate of 5 20%(figures include advertising/marketing,
as well as cultural content)( United nations, 2004). The global entertainment and media industries were estimated to be worth US$1, 255 billion in 2004, North Ameriic leading with a 44.4%share, Europe,
the Middle east and Africa coming second with a 33%share. New distribution channels, like broadband internet and wireless communications are driving growth in this industry.
Furthermore Europe's strong cultural heritage provides a sound basis for this sector which is reflected in a 29%world market share (worth US$130 billion) in 2000 (Aho Expert Group, 2006).
The growing adoption of ICT is having a momentous impact on all areas of the economy,
changing the way goods are produced, distributed and consumed, transforming the creative content value chain (Marcus, 2005).
ICT are an important driver for both the supply and demand side of the creative content industry.
It is the symbolic, highly digitisable nature of the goods it produces combined T Fabienne Abadie (corresponding author) is at European Commisssio Directorate Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospectiiv Technological Studies, Edificio EXPO
, C/Inca Garcilaso, s n, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain: Email: fabienne. abadie@ec. europa. eu; Tel:+
+34 954 488228: Fax:++34 954 488208. Michael Friedewald is at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovattio Research Competence Center‘New Emerging Technologiees'Breslauer Strasse 48,76139 Karlsruhe, Germany;
Email: michael. friedewald@isi. fraunhofer. de; Tel:++49 721 6809.146; Matthias Weber is at the Austrian Institute of technology, Departtmen Foresight and Policy development, Donau-City-Strasse 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria;
Email: matthias. weber@arcs. ac. at; Tel:++43 50550 4561. For acknowledgements see page 30.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 20 with the creative environment in which content activiitie unfold that make the creative content sector a fertile ground for radical innovations or disruptions
(Christensen, 1997; Rafi and Kampas, 2002. Those lead to significant changes both in everyday life and business models under the combined influence of technological, organisational and behavioural innovations.
These features are at the origin of the dynamism that characterises the creative content sector
and its ability to deliver new services globally. The adoptiio of novel or significantly enhanced ICTS may lead to new services
which will become key to competiitiv advantage in a knowledge-based society, causing disruptions in selected markets
or creating brand new markets, potentially changing the competiitiv environment of entire countries. Disruptions are therefore as much a threat to inflexible older businesses as an opportunity for more flexible new entrants.
The current and likely future dynamics of the creative content industries represent a major challeeng for the application of forward-looking methood to underpin
and inform policy-making. ICT evolution has become so fast and pervasive that it is increasingly difficult to predict the emergence of new technologies or the evolution of existing ones,
making traditional forecasting inadequate to identify the visions for tomorrow needed to inform today's policy-making.
As a consequence, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES like foresight have gained growing attention in recent years in the EU and worldwide,
as a policy support tool used to inform and underpin strategy development and visioning, providing strategic forward-looking knowledge to policy-makers.
However even methodollogie that have been developed to deal explicitly with a range of potential futures are reaching their limits in the face of the scope and pace of change in the creative content sector.
Established FTA approaache tend to struggle with the double challenge of exploring future trajectories of extremely fastchanngin areas like creative content
When commissioning an FTA of the creative content sector in 2007 2008 the European commission was expecctin
not only to understand better the disruptive transformations the creative content sector is likely to face in the years to come,
2008). ) Moreover, rather than specifying all stages of the methodology in full detaai at the outset,
a prospective study dealing with the future evolution of the creative content industtries She has worked also for many years in the field of electronic communications policy and regulation at Europeea level.
He has worked for many years as a scientist and policy advisor on research, technology and innovation policy, both at national and European level.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 21 elements and showing how the implementation of those elements in combination enables us to disentanngl the complexity of the disruptive forces influenccin a sector
2008): ) music recording and publishing, film production, broadcasting (radio and TV), computer games, publisshin (newspapers and books) and cultural spaces (museums and libraries)( see Figure 1). This looks actually like a heterogeneous bundle of activities, with very different historical roots.
adapted from Wiesand and Söndermann (2005) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 22 a mass audience.
2008). ) This methodology consists of five main building blocks as shown in Figure 2: a sector analysiis a Delphi survey, a scenario process leading to an analysis of issues and a final policy analysis.
experts) Workshop (stakeholders) Workshop (restricted, client) Impact assessment Figure 2. Overview of methodology building blocks Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010
and building trust and awareness are part Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 24 of the equation.
2008) Some key technology trends include: new business models with transformation of creative content goods into services;
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 25 and related variants, uncertain issues, potential disrupttion and the likelihood of possible identified trends/issues.
The EPIS-Delphi was implemented as an internetbaase real-time Delphi (RT Delphi)( Gordon and Pease, 2006;
Gordon, 2007. Like in a classical tworooun Delphi survey, experts participated in a surveey in which they had to assess topics based on statements about the future.
111 experts with a focus on creative content to participate in the Delphi survey that ran during June 2007.
in order to review the results and change their assessment as necessary (Friedewald et al, 2007). In a nutshell, the Delphi survey revealed only a small number of topics where experts did not reach a consensus about the likely future development.
and Public policy February 2010 26 remain crucial for the future success of the creative content sector.
2004; Ilmolaa et al. 2006). ) Step 3: Design of scenarios for the future The sector analysis carried out as the first step of the process
and complemented by the Delphi survey served as an input for a scenario building workshop. The addition of a scenario process emerged at that point as a necessary new building block to our adaptiiv foresight methodology.
and Public policy February 2010 27 promises associated with user created content, sociia software and Web 2. 0 are realised.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 28 Step 5: Policy analysis Our adaptive foresight on the creative content industrrie was concluded with a policy analysis,
2008) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 29 mediating between skills and demand for skills.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 30 With regard to the impact assessment aspect of the methodology
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisionmakking held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. References Aho Expert Group 2006.
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An Overview of research finding and debates prepared for the European Cultural Foundation
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31 40 DOI: 10.3152/030234210x484784; http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Critical success factors for government-led foresight Jonathan Calof and Jack E Smith This paper reports on an integrated
The study was performed by a team of researchers in Canada in the period 2005 2007.
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisiionmaking, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. At the time of writing, Jack E Smith was Senior Advisor Federal Foresiigh and Innovation strategy, Defence R&d Canada.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 32 Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers.
and Decker (2004) similarly identified the broad impacts of foresight exercises which they divided into technological/scientific aspects
For instance, according to Hennen (2000: 154) technology assessment is:..not designed to directly influence political decision making, but to prepare knowledge that is relevant for decision making.
and evaluation in generral Barre and Keenan (2006) concluded that an Jonathan Calof is recognized as one of the leaders in intelliggenc and business insight.
Jack Smith has been an adjunct professor at Telfer School of management at the University of Ottawa since 2009.
He has had over 25 years of experience of federal government policy technology and innovation program development.
Since founding the Office of Technology foresight at the National research council in 2002, he has led or been an advisor to collaborative foresight projects in several emergiin science and technology (S&t) domains such as:
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
Similarly, Amanatidou and Guy (2006) have pointed out the direct and indirect benefits of FTA: Foresight programmes are evaluated usually in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts.
Georghiou and Keenan (2004) recognized this when they wrote that: Despite the spread of foresight experience across Europe and beyond, there has not so far Table 1. Foresight:
>last accessed 3 february 2010 Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 34 been a serious attempt to understand its effects in aggregate.
In particular, foresight has not been evaluated as an instrument of science and innovation policy. Thus the real effect of foresight on priorities may be difficult to determine.
2003): ) In comparison to futures studies and forecastinng the literature on foresight has paid little attenntio to its actual strategic value.
Carlson (2004) also echoed these sentiments. Foresight success: what factors are associated with foresight success? We did not find much literature that looked at foresiigh success factors.
Buetschi and Nentwich (2000) identified several context or foundational success factors for influencing the political role of participatoor technology assessment (see Table 3). These studies tell us that FTA EXERCISES should not be viewed independently of their contexts
2006) looked at FTA from the corporate perspective and identified several criteria (content and process) for improving the effectiveness of foresight studies (see Table 4). Survey process From the preceding discussion,
designed and delivered in the period 2005 2006 was a survey of foresight leaders around the world identified from international meetinngs followed by an expert analysis that delved more deeply into best practices.
and practical implementation Involvement of political actors in the process Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 35 asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations,
Finnsight 2015 (encompassing a mix of Nokia plus three government agencies (VTT, TEKES and SITRA) and Helsinki University of Technologgy in Finland UK Foresight, third phase 2004 2008;
synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;
2007) Is financial support for foresight in your country stable, growing or decreasing in 2007 2008?
Is there a central foresight web page? are included web links? Is there a foresight support agency (or departmeent in your government?
and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:
was terminated in 2008. Sponsors: Governments (both national and subnatiional and government agencies were the main sponsors of foresight exercises accounting for 95%of the sample.
In Finland, the Parliamenntar Committee on the Future is supported by a national fund for R&d (SITRA-government investtment augmented by a significant Nokia share sale in the 1990s) as well as by government S&t focused agencies such as the TEKES, VTT
the foresiigh capacity and stakeholder organizations need Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 38 to be linked with
At an operational level, the nascent Canadian foresiigh initiative (2002 2008) was able to produce some excellent projects with strong insights,
Over the years the program went through numerous changes, in the host organization (from National Reseaarc Council 2002 2004, to Privy council office 2005 2006, to Industry Canada 2007 2008.
As present (early 2010) there are some encouraging signs of a revival of interest by the Canadian government in a modest S&t foresight initiative so,
Canada's foresight progrram based in the National science Advisor's (NSA) Office was disbanded in March 2008
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 39 Compared to most of the other nations represennte in our study,
as early as in 2005 2006, it enabled the authhor to predict the demise of the Canadian foresight effort.
to the point in 2006 2007 where the only substantive client was the NSA and the science community,
limited direct evidence Since 2004, with two successive minority governments, the policy agenda has been clearly dominated by short-term priorities (sometimes only five years) thus rendering foresight,
which tends to focus on five years plus, as not readily applicable to the current agenda,
somewhat, but little capacity existed in Canada for academic foresight in 2005 2008 Canada has limited only a number of foresight focused academics,
only two out of eight factors were clearly evident 2008 Assessment: generally a failure (because) according to the two critical criteria:
and Public policy February 2010 40 is done not, then the exercise is of minimal or no value.
and Keenan (2006), research in this area is limited: Pleas from sponsors of FTA ACTIVITIES for better accounts of demonstrable impacts are as old as FTA itself.
See website, available at<www. apecforesight. org>,last accessse 3 february 2010. References Amanatidou Effie and Ken Guy 2006.
Interpreting foresight procees impacts: steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.
'Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Futuureoriented Technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Barré, Remi and Michael Keenan 2006. Evaluation, impact and learning. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Buetschi, D and M Nentwich 2000. The role of PTA in the policy making process, EUROPTA Final Report.
Copenhagen: Danish Board of Technology. Carlson, L W 2004. Using technology foresight to create business value.
Research Technology management, 47 (5), 51 61. European foresight monitoring Network Mapping Reports 2005 2007. Available at<http://www. foresight-network. eu>,last accessse 3 february 2010.
Georghiou, Luke and Michael Keenan 2004. Towards a typology for evaluating foresight exercises. Paper presented at EU US Seminar:
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assesssmen Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Ladikas, Miltos and Michael Decker 2004.
Assessing the impact of future-oriented technology assessment. Paper presented at EU US Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain.
Rollwagen, Ingo, Jan Hofmann and Stefan Schneider 2006. Criterri for improving the business impact of foresight at Deutsche bank:
lessons learnt in mapping trends. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Van der meulen, Barend, Jan de Wilt and Hans Rutten 2003. Develoopin futures for agriculture in The netherlands:
a systematti exploration of the strategic value of foresight. Journal of Forecasting, 22 (2/3), 219 213
Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010041-10 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 41 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
41 50 DOI: 10.3152/030234210x490778; http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Nares Damrongchai, Ponpiboon Satangput, Greg Tegart and Chatri
Sripaipan This paper presents a future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) project on the control and management of emerging infectious diseases (EID) in the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation region.
Emerging infectious diseases While severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza have attracted major attention in receen years, there have been other emerging infectious diseases (EID) which also present threats to humans and animals.
More new diseases have emerged in the past 20 years than in the previous 50 years with the majority of these originating in wildlife.
Eight categories of infectious diseases have been identified as potential threats (World health organization, 2006. These are: B Nares Damrongchai is at the APEC Center for Technology foresight, National science Technology and Innovation policy Office, 73/1 Rama 6 Road, Rajdhevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailaand Email:
Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 42 new diseases such as SARS and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) with variants such as H5n1;
IT and cognitive sciences (NBIC) and that these converging technologies could radically change society, econoom and culture in the next 20 years.
In the US the term‘converging technologies'was used first at a 2001 workshop organized by the US National science Foundation and the US Departmeen of Commerce entitled‘Converging Technologiie for Improving Human Performance'.
since been held in the US (Roco and Bainbridge, 2002). In Europe the concept of NBIC was studied by A high-Level Expert Group
2004) directed to the application of converging technologies to development of a Europeea knowledge society. This report contains the pragmatic definition:
Ponpiboon Satangput graduated from the University of Cambridge in 2001 and obtained a Phd in medical physiic from the same university in 2005.
From 2006 2009 he was a policy researcher at the APEC Center for Technollog Foresight, Bangkok, Thailand.
His research interests include: medical imaging, decision-making techniques, future knowledge management systems, and project management. Greg Tegart has had a long and varied career.
and the US for a number of years followed by administration of industrria research and of government science and technology (S&t) in Australia.
He retired from the service of the Australiia government in 1993 and has held academic posts in Canberra and Melbourne in the S&t policy area since then.
A major activity has been his association with the APEC Center for Technology foresight since its inception in 1998.
Chatri Sripaipan started his career teaching electronics at Chulalongkorn University, Thailand From 1980, his interest diversified into industrial policy and S&t policy.
In 1997, he joined the Natioona Science and Technology development Agency (NSTDA) of Thailand as co-director of the APEC Center for Technology foresight,
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 43 The concept has been extended in the European union's Seventh Framework Program to the possibiliitie at the interface of micro nano systems and the living world.
'The technology roadmapping method has been used in the present authors'previous region-wide studies (APEC CTF, 2006.
, NEMS based Biochip) Figure 1. Examples of converging technologies, APEC Center for Technology foresight (www. apecforesight. org) 2006 Source:
Phucharoenchanachai (2005) Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 44 In Phase II, the objective was to determine directiion for future R&d
a final symposium was arrannge in Bangkok in December 2007. Approximattel 60 experts from over ten APEC economies
2005) where EID become a threat in the Asia-pacific region over the next decade and beyoond Thirty three experts from seven economies met in Thailand in February 2007 to develop scenarios for the future of EID in the Asia-pacific region.
After keynote speeches given by speakers from Rand IBM, Oracle, and the Australian Biosecurity Cooperaativ Research centre, the experts were organised into smaller groups.
2004). ) The basic elements of a generic roadmap representiin market, products, technology, R&d programs, and resources, were changed into the elements listed below:
emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 45 possibly hinder the progress of technology developmment
short term (2007 2012), medium term (2012 2017), and long term (beyond 2017). The structure of the roadmaps used in this study is shown in Figure 3. Two roadmapping workshops were organized in Tokyo in Japan on 22 24 may (42 experts from nine economies) 2007 and in Taipei, Chinese Taipei
on 24 26 october 2007 (41 experts from eight economies. Experts discussed the future changes in medical requirements in each research domain, the types of supporting technologies needed,
the key challenges that could possibly hinder the developmeen progress, and R&d activities. Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID life cycle model The scenario workshop listed key drivers for EID in the areas of social, technology, economics, environmeent and politics (STEEP.
It also identified key uncertainties such as massive natural disasters, manmaad global security issues, and unpredicted breakthrroug technologies.
Malaria in Miami 2017. In February 2015, a family arrives in Miami, Florida from tropical Latin america.
A little girl was infected with an unknown strain of malaria. She had been bitten by carrier mosquitoes. There is no experience
A range of technologies was put to use to stop the virus. One year later,
After tracing back for two years, it was found that it was an unknown illness showing coldliik symptoms followed by flu-like symptoms and severe gastrointestinal distress, leading to death in 20%of the afflicted patients within two weeks.
The model Was developed in Roadmapping I Developed in Roadmapping II Figure 3. Structure of technology roadmaps Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 46 proposed at the workshop
2004). ) According to the model, technological approaches can be used to combat EIDS at every stage of their life cycle, from preventive measures such as vacciine to biosensors for surveillance, bioassays for detection, drugs for treatment,
Adapted from presentation by Dr Silberglitt (Rand Corporation, 2007) Table 1. Key user requirements in diagnostics Short term Medium term Long term Accuracy,
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 47 find more technology applications. The additional technology applications identified were:
The project was announced concluded in late 2008 and the full report (APEC CTF, 2008) with policy recommendatiio was presented at the 34th APEC Industrial Sciennc
and Technology Working group Meeting held in March 2009 in Mexico. Elsewhere the report was disseminated throughout the Asia-pacific region
and also to non-APEC members such as the UK who also participated in the project.
to combating EIDS Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 48 Table 3. Roadmap for development of EID diagnostics 2007 2012 2013 2017
Beyond 2017 Validated, easy to use in the field or local site, low cost, suitable for developed and developing countries, no cold chain required Higher sensitivity and specificity Simultaneous,
multi-agent diagnostic devices linked to automated data collection and analysis Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 49 APEC diagnosis center,
Rangsin's project was concluded in February 2009 and has provided policy recommendations to the Thai government (Rangsin, 2009).
Conclusion Bibliometric analysis and scenarios have been used to study the factors involved in initiation and spread of EID within the framework of the EID life cycle model.
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 50 identification of‘technology roadmaps'that are to be applied to a wider geographical area and more diverse level of technology capacity and socioeconommi development.
as was evident in the APEC leaders'declaration (APEC, 2006). However, the applicatiio of these new technologies in developing economies needs to be undertaken with great care,
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