On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues Effie Amanatidou1,,
*Maurits Butter2, Vicente Carabias3, Totti Ko nno la 4, Miriam Leis5, Ozcan Saritas1, Petra Schaper-Rinkel6 and Victor van Rij7 1manchester
Institute of Innovation research, MBS, Harold Hankins Building, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9pl, UK 2tno, Wassenaarseweg 56,2333 AL Leiden, The netherlands 3eu DG
JRC-IPTS, Seville, Spain, and ZHAW Zurich University of Applied sciences, Institute of Sustainable development, Postfach 805, CH-8401 Winterthur, Switzerland 4impetu Solutions, Vi'ctor Andre's Belaunde, 36-4c
, 28016 Madrid, Spain 5editage/Cactus Communications Inc.,C-912 BSEL Tech Park, Sector 30a, Vashi, New Mumbai 400 705, India 6austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, 1220 Vienna, Austria 7advisory Council for Science
policy support. 1. Introduction The 2000s have witnessed increasing complexities in societies. Although the world has improved for some people,
Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 208 221 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs017 The Author 2012.
Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals. permissions@oup. com A relevant tool for this purpose is defined horizon scanning as:..
Van Rij 2010a, 2010b) Horizon scanning may also take place in specific policy domains (Botterhuis et al. 2010.
thus providing a more evidence-based approach to research and innovation policy (Georghiou 2007). The main focus of this activity has been to address new and emerging technological areas that may have an impact on social, economic,
which is extended at the margins of the known environment and possibly beyond it (Loveridge 2009.
2012) regard horizon scanning as:..a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting
or social signals (Uskali 2005) Wild cards Wild cards are events with a surprising character, a low probability and a high impact (Van Rij 2011).
or prepared for (Saritas and Smith 2011). Wild cards represent the occurrence of a singular (historically original), sudden (abrupt,
and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).
It comes close to the concept of future narratives as used by Van der Steen (2008) in his political discourse analysis. Van der Steen (2008) sees future narratives as‘stories about what the future,
2010) Discourse and decision-making Political discourse refers to the continuous communicative debate that takes place in the political arena.
This debate is unique for human beings with their ability of speech and writing (Chilton 2004;
Van dijk 2002) and nowadays audiovisual presentations and computer simulations. The outcome of a political discourse is partly dependent on the contents and shape of the communicative expressions of the participants their cognition in wide sense as well as the power relationships between the participants (Chilton 2004;
Van dijk 2002. Issue description and the early warning signals around them are communicative expressions that will eventually have to find their place in this policy discourse
in order to be relevant 210. E. Amanatidou et al. proceedings. Additional information and leads are obtained by participative approaches,
Many of the sophisticated community annotation systems that are used currently in biology are based on the wiki concept (Mons et al. 2008;
Stein 2008. In the SESTI project an attempt was made to set up a wiki that specialised in collecting voluntary descriptions from many authors on new emerging issues for science and technology.
It is also crucial to select trusted and reliable twitterers (Pang 2010. Text-mining enables large amounts of textual informatiio to be assessed with specialised software.
which to establiis transparent and pluralistic processes for exploring scienttifi non-knowledge (Bo schen et al. 2010).
Czaplicka-Kolarz et al. 2009; Smith et al. 2010; Sutherland et al. 2010; 2011). ) Focusing on specific fields, surveys can deliver additional information on various side aspects related to the core issue.
The use of Twitter could be useful for the identification of signals and issues in multiple ways.
Twitter can be used as a source for signals and for tracing the way in which signals (especially in regard to potential scientific breakthrooughs are spread and taken up by different communities.
Twitter can also be used as an interactive tool. However, online software tools for clustering Twitter tweets are necessary, especially for the processing and analysis phases,
Mandavilli 2011) The blogosphere in general is expanding at an unprecedennte speed. With a better understanding of the blogosphher it would be possible to develop tools to use collective wisdom to scan future-related signals and emerging issues.
Clustering blog sites presents new challenges for information science (Agarwal et al. 2010) as no tools are yet available.
as in The netherlands and the UK, important issues were identified that started causing severe damage in two to three years (van Rij 2010b.
even though economic models completely failed to forecast the financial crisis of 2007 8, even in the shortest term.
On the other hand, horizon scans in The netherlands and UK had spotted already the financial crisis two years before it started.
As Choo (2001) points out, horizon scanning is a long-term investment that needs a critical mass of talent and resources.
See<http://www. gapminder. org/>accessed 21 december 2011. References Agarwal, N.,Galan, M.,Liub, H. and Subramanyab, S. 2010)‘ Wiscoll:
Collective wisdom based blog clustering',Information sciences, 180: 39 61. Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegeman, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
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P. A. 2004)‘ Analyzing Political Discourse: Theory and Practice'.'London: Routledge. Choo, C. W. 2001)‘ Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning',Information Research, 7/1<http://choo. fis. utoronto. ca/IR/choo choo
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futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;
Martin and Johnston 1999; Georghiou and Cassingena Harper 2011. At present, however, various forms of horizon scanning are gaining in popularity,
as evidenced by the considerable interest that practitioners and policy-makers have expressed in exploring alternative and even conflicting interpretations of the future (Kuosa 2010;
Rossel 2011; Saritas and Smith 2011. While the intellectual origins of‘horizon scanning'can be traced to the celebrated work by Ansoff (1975) on the recognition of weak signals,
the term was popularized and institutionalized in the UK after the millennium (Schultz 2006). For example, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) defined horizon scanning in 2002 as:..
the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning'and, continuing,
horizon scanning‘may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends. 1 At present, various forms of horizon scanning are quite widespread (Amanatidou et al. 2012),
even to the point where it is not easy to take stock of those activities that do not readily fit under any single label.
Despite this variabillity horizon scanning offers tested approaches for collecctin signals which:.Articulate credible observations about current or imminent changes (either sudden, gradual,
Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 222 231 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs021 The Author 2012.
Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals. permissions@oup. com. Are felt to be potential indications of new emerging issues that may have received insufficient attention..
or causal modelling do not suffice (Linstone 1999). In this setting, where policy-makers are almost bound to be taken by surprise,
what signals are‘relevant'the collective sense-making processes coupled with the interpretation of signals have received less attention, particularly with regard to the recognition of interconnections among the signals or the derivation of their policy implications (Dervin 1998).
'which was carried out in 2009 by the Joint research Centre-Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors (BEPA) of the European commission (EC).
It therefoor follows that scanners need to leverage tacit knowleedg (Nonaka 1994) which reflects their experiences and interpretations of perceived reality (Scharmer 2000).
On this point, Weick (1995) argues that sense-making is not mere interpretation: in fact, it is less about discovery and more about invention.
In a similar tone, Mo ller (2010) states that:..before something, an idea or object, can be sensed,
it has to be constructed. This construction is essentially a collective activity of knowledge creation. Against this backdrop, we regard horizon scanning as:
interpret and construct the meaning of the emerging landscape (du Toit 2003; Nelson 2010; Weick 1995.
Yet the broader significance of this individual sense-making is built collectively, for instance when observations are evaluated
or aggregated into more encompassing clusters or when their interrelationnship with other notions, such as trends, are explored. 2. 1 Scoping the scanning exercise Early on,
Some exerccise have sought to scan across a truly comprehensive spectrum (Glenn et al. 2010; Saritas and Smith 2011),
while others have focused on specific fields such as telemedicine (Blackburn et al. 2010), security (Botterhuis et al. 2010), environmental conservation (Sutherland et al. 2011),
or energy, health and cognitive enhancement (Amanatidou et al. 2012). Dedicated centres have been established to provide horizontal support for government departments (e g.
Horizon scanning Centres in the UK and Singapore; the National Intelligence Council in the USA; and the OECD Futures Programme.
Methodological advances have been pursued, for instance, in the Framework programme 7 Blue sky Foresight projects on emerging issues that shape European science and technoloog (Amanatidou et al. 2012.
and Unruh 2007) that reflect, for instance, the mandate of the client or sponsor, or the expected uses of results.
Saritas and Smith (2011), for instance, consider trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities, and weak signals as meaningful units to be scanned.
Kuosa (2010) notes that the widely used, but somewhat imprecise, concept of weak signals‘seems to be everything
2007) argue that the collection of weak signals tends to produce relatively unstructured pools of signals
what future-relevant observations will be submitted (Hiltunen 2008; Mendonc¸a et al. 2004. Especially in the case of weak signals and wild cards, sense-making builds on the scanners'creative and heuristic capabilities to detect meaningful observations in the presence of scattered or no historical evidence (Dervin 1998.
But even if there is historical evidence to support the seemingly straightforward extrapolation of trends, assesssin such trends in relation to individual signals still permits alternative interpretations that can be reached only through sense-making.
Moreover, the most interestiin emerging issues may be characterized ambiguous by nebulous cause-and-effect relationships between existing and emergent knowledge.
moreover, the creative combination thereof to permit the creation of new entities and meanings (Nonaka 1994).
But one can also argue that the very remit of horizon scanning is to challenge the mindsets of esteemed incumbents whose perceptions may reflect well-established evidence rather than surprising interpreetation of incipient developments (Taleb 2007.
Here, we argue that horizon scanning should seek to engage diverse stakeholders (Ko nno la et al. 2007.
for instance may allow new meanings (Nonaka 1994) to be synthesized through the shared development of crosscutting challennges From a methodological perspective, internet-based tools for continuous idea generation (Graefe et al. 2010), idea management
and surveys (Haegeman et al. 2011; Mckinsey & Company 2009; Saritas and Smith 2011), for instance, can be effective in collecting
and assessing observations as well as in synthesizing these inputs (Ko nno la et al. 2007; Salo et al. 2009) in preparation for subsequent face-to-face stakeholder workshops. 2. 4 Building ground for crosscutting policy coordination At best,
participatory workshop activities offer policymakker an inspiring environment where they can openly discuss the implications of alternative future developments for policy-making in general as well as for their own responsibilities in particular.
Such workshops may also aspire to support vision-building and priority-setting and engage policy-makers
and other stakeholders in creative networking that facilitates the implementation of later action plans (Brummer et al. 2008;
Fuerth 2009. From the process perspective, this type of direct engagemeen in workshops helps expose policy-makers to the diversity of issues at stake.
However, when attempting to take issues forward in policy formulation, it is often necessaar to synthesize them into meaningful clusters that exhibit a logical structure
and are linked to existing decision-making structures (Georghiou and Csaaingena Harper 2011). This is because the mere listing of issues appears
'whose exploration paves way for policy coordination and the attainnmen of systemic policy objectives (Schoen et al. 2011).
and cumbersame changes in existing organizational structures and practices (Anderson 2005). 3. Case: Facing the future In 2008 9,
the BEPA of the EC organized a series of foresiigh activities (European communities 2009; Boden et al. 2010) which focused on long-term developments and their policy implications on EU policy-making,
as a means of preparing for the development of the Europe 2020 strategy and related policy initiatives such as the EC Communication on the Innovation Union.
In this context, JRC-IPTS and BEPA started collaboratiiv horizon scanning efforts which evolved gradually from initial exchanges of relevant foresight studies to more systemaatic comprehensive scanning and detailed analysis of reports,
with the aim of identifying future trends and disruptive events that could have major implications on EU policy-making by 2025 (cf.
Fig. 1). Furthermore JRC-IPTS proposed that a robust portfolio modelling (RPM) screening process (Ko nno la et al. 2007;
Brummer et al. 2008,2011) would be conducted to engage a wider community of experts in the assessment of key findings from these reports towards the identification of most pertinnen issues.
and phases of foresight exercise‘Facing the future'(Boden et al. 2010). Facing the future: Horizon scanning. 225 developed using a participatory approach.
These issues were complemented with additional issues from the FTA 2008 conference survey. 3 3. 2 Assessment of issues The formulated issues were assessed in an online survey by some 270 external experts who represented foresight practitiooners
relevance to EU policy-making. novelty in comparison with earlier policy debates. probability of occurrence by 2025 In total, 381 issues were evaluated on a seven-point Likert-scale
the expert assessments were synthesized with the RPM tool (Liesio et al. 2007; Ko nno la et al. 2007.
In the RPM framework, the criterion-specific scores v j i for each issue j=1,,
A major war by 2020, for instance, was a core issue in the rare event-oriented analysis
and security Issue Borderline issue>50%Core issue 100%A major war by 2020 R NATO will become more open to outside partnerships M Terrorists
M Pervasive sensors for real-time surveillaanc are diffused widely on a global scale by 2020 M V Investments in defence will carry on declining in world R M=
and decision processes (Boden et al. 2010):.The need to change the uses of essential natural resources by aligning all policy realms towards sustainabillity extending from policy design through implementtatio to evaluation..
The final report (Boden et al. 2010) has been referenced in the Communication on the Innovation Union (SEC 2010),
>accessed 16 september 2011) Area No. Issue code Key words from issue description (optional) Save natural resources (water,
and loss of ecosystems services 6 DS13 Attacks on infrastructure facilities 6 DS15 A major war by 2020 6 DS81 Pervasive sensors for real-time surveillaanc widely diffused Global
and its impacts will be felt more intensely in the period 2025 50. According to the OECD (2008), 2. 8 billion,
or 44%,of the world's population lives in areas of high water stress. There is a risk of global water bankruptcy due to humanity's consistent underpricing of water and its consequent waste and overuse.
T. Ko nno la et al. crowds'(Duboff 2007) which suggests that the engagement of a large number of scanners helps draw attention to phenommen that qualify as indicators of emerging policy issues.
however, this type of‘bottom-up'process implies that the list of prioritized issues may not be very coherent (Bunn and Salo 1993.
2012) concluded that the analysis of signals and emerging issues as well as ensuing workshops need to be structured around specific policy challenges
2012) consider three ideal-type models for FTA, namely:.individual projects or programmes of limited duration and with targeted objectives. dedicated units providing continuous input to their embedding
which increases its relevaanc for initiatives such as the European Forum on Forward Looking Activities and the Joint Programming in Research (Ko nno la et al. 2012).
Notes 1. See<http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk>accessed 26 september 2011. See also Schultz (2006. 2. Effie Amanatidou, Anette Braun, Ville Brummer and Mika Mannermaa supported JRC-IPTS in reviewing four out of the six areas. 3. During the International Seville Conference
2008 on Future-oriented technology analysis a‘big picture'survey was conducted on trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals likely to share the future (Saritas and Smith 2011).
The particularly novel issues from this survey were added to the issues collected from the literature review. 4. These issues plus the 73 additional issues identified by the survey participants can be found at<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/bepa. html
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