Fraunhofer future markets: From global challenges to dedicated, technological, collaborative research projects Kerstin Cuhls1,,*Alexander Bunkowski2 and Lothar Behlau2 1fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Breslauer Straße 48,76139 Karlsruhe,
and Ruprecht-Karls-University of Heidelberg, Akademiestraße 4 8, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany 2fraunhofer Gesellschaft, Headquarters, Hansastraße 27 C, 80686 Mu nchen, Germany
*Corresponding author. Email: kerstin. cuhls@isi. fraunhofer. de One urgent mission for European research is to focus on the grand challenges of our time.
We discuss how this mission was incorporated into a Fraunhofer corporate programme that takes on global challenges by stimulating collaborative research projects across knowledge domains.
The idea The Lund Declaration (Lund Declaration 2009) formulated a request that European research should focus on the grand challenges of our time, moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches.
cities and organisattions Even the New framework Programme‘Horizon 2020'will stress programmes that are based on‘social challenges'(European commission 2011:
This process is repeated every three years (Klingner and Behlau 2008. In order to differentiate from the rather technologydriive processes of the past,
The idea fits well with the Fraunhofer mission, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 232 244 doi:
10.1093/scipol/scs018 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
what we should‘address'as a global challenge (see Lund Declaration 2009; EU 2011 or the different definitions given during the presentations at the Innovation Convention, held 5 6 december 2011 in Brussels). Some institutions and companies have lists of megatrends and regard them as global challenges.
Some go even further and try to identify what is lying ahead without looking into the past.
All global challenges are valid for a longer term (more than 20 years, some even say more than 50 years).
Some global challenges have multiple dimensions, so that:..the current government systems are incapable of tackling current and future global interconnected challenges.
Boden et al. 2010: 24) The challenges to developing countries are also becoming global. Different publications or internal papers can be discusssed
In parallel with the Lund Declaration (2009), the European commission published some brochures about the‘challenges'.'One is‘The World in 2025'(EU Commission 2009),
which argues about trends, tensions and major transitions. Here the (mega-)trends and the global problems are derived from the‘tensions'described in this approach.
Trends mentioned are (EU Commission 2009: 11ff):.) The Asian century is approaching, with nearly twothiird of the world's population living in Asia (in 2025), with increasing inequalities and Asia as the first producer and exporter of the world..
Under the headline of poverty and mobility of men and women, it is assumed that international migrations will develop and, without an important inflow of immigrants,
the European population would start to decrease from 2012. A third of the world's population is undernourished.
and cultural distance (EU Commission 2009: 19ff) In this context, transitions are assumed to be:.towards a multi-polar world and world governance. towards a new universalism (political-cultural transition.
'demographic change and‘active ageing'(EU Commission 2009: 19ff) These transitions are considered also to be‘megatrends'in other publications.
The term‘megatrends'was used originally by Naisbitt (1984) and was taken up in Germany by popular trend searchers like Horx (2007) who defines them as the:..
blockbusters of the forces that change. In a hierarchical trend system, they are active at different levels.
Megatrends have a half-life of at least 50 years, are resistant to set-backs and show impacts in all areas of the lives of human beings.
Some researchers from different areas made use of these approaches and set‘megatrends'as a framework or a driver for their scenarios (Kolz et al. 2012 forthcoming.
They were even part of a Delphi survey (Cuhls et al. 2002; Blind et al. 2001) to highlight topics that should be assessed in science and technology.
Megatrends are used also as a part of the evaluation in market studies and analysis (Frost and Sullivan, 2010.
2. 1. 2 Second example. The State of the Future reports of the UN Millennium Project can be regarded as another source for‘megatrends'and long-lasting challenges for the future.
see Glenn et al. 2009; for a brief introduction see Cuhls 2008. These reports served as a basis for the challenges for the Fraunhofer Society (see below.
2. 1. 3 Third example. The challenges pointed out in the State of the Future reports are based on the UN Millennium Challenges and Goals Project (2005.
The goals are transferred into strategic targets. The Millennium Development Goals as a focus for action (see also Cuhls 2008 and citations there are listed in Table 1. These targets
and global goals can be described as‘large permanent problems'.'Some have been known for a long time, but still remain problematic
They are not dealing with sudden events or‘wild cards'(in the sense of Steinmu ller and Steinmu ller 2004;
Steinmu ller 2011) and all of them have been ongoing problems for a long time so at the same time, they are based on trends or megatrends.
The Fraunhofer list (internal paper) of 2006 included: technology megatrends, converging technologies,‘biologilisation',miniaturisation, intelligent environments etc.
These developments were addressed directly in the Fraunhofer foresight process at that time (Klingner et al. 2008. 2. 1. 5 Fifth example.
The new version of the German‘hightech strategy'1 (Bundesministerium fu r Bildung und Forschung 2010) has defined needs-oriented fields (Bedarfsfelder in German) and key technologies as a frame
For this, we need first of all to look at the Fraunhofer Society itself. 3. The Fraunhofer approach 3. 1 Strategic R&d planning within the Fraunhofer governance model Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES have been used within corporate strategic R&d planning at Fraunhofer for several years.
With a total budget of E1. 65 billion in 2010, Fraunhofer is the largest contract research organisation in Europe.
and poverty Target 1 Halve between 1990 and 2015, proportion of people whose income is less than US$1 a day Target 2 Halve, between 1990 and 2015,
proportion of people who suffer from hunger Goal 2 Achieve universal primary education Target 3 Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere,
boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling Goal 3 Promote gender equality
and empower women Target 4 Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005,
and at all levels of education no later than 2015 Goal 4 Reduce child mortality Target 5 Reduce by two-thirds,
between 1990 and 2015, under-five mortality rate Goal 5 Improve maternal health Target 6 Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, maternal mortality ratio Goal 6 Combat HIV/AIDS,
malaria and other diseases Target 7 have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse spread of HIV/AIDS Target 8 have halted by 2015
and begun to reverse incidence of malaria and other major diseases Goal 7 Ensure environmental sustainability Target 9 Integrate principles of sustainable development into country policies
and programs and reverse loss of environmental resources Target 10 Halve, by 2015, proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation Target 11 have achieved by 2020 a significant improvement in lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers Goal 8
Develop a global partnership for development Target 12 Develop further an open, rule-based predictable non-discriminatory trading
One of the approaches is described in Klingner and Behlau (2008. Successful implementation of such processes achieves several goals:
and results should be quickly implementable to create the maximum impact in the organisation in the shortest possible time. 3. 2 Former future-oriented processes at Fraunhofer (technology-driven) In 2004,
This first approach was followed by a second process in 2008 (Klingner and Behlau 2008. In this approach, the analysis of foresight studies was only a small work package followed by an internal survey to generate topics.
so that ultimately 12 future topics were formulated (Klingner and Behlau 2008). Although the processes differed slightly in the methodology used,
'At the end of the 2005 and 2008 FTA PROCESSES, 12 innovation topics, that became 12 Fraunhofer future topics were defined.
However, dedicated internal funding for each topic was not inherent in the process. 3. 3 Rationale for a new 2010 future-oriented process (demand-driven) The rationale of the Fraunhofer approach started with the assumption that there are obviously science
The Lund Declaration (2009) made clear that: European research must focus on the grand challenges of our time moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches.
The aim of the 2010 process was that, ultimately, each future topic would be promoted and developed by at least one dedicated (and centrally funded) R&d project of significant size.
That means‘real'prototypes or results developed in a collaborative manner are expected from the projects Section 4 explains this process in more detail. 4. Methodology of the 2010 process 4. 1 The concept of the 2010 future-oriented
A needs-oriented approach and cross-institute problem-solving should open up new contract research markets in a 3 7 year perspective,
i e. an actual market perspective of 5 10 years. The process had a first top-down part, in
The most convincing projects were funded internally. 4. 2 Deriving Fraunhofer-specific challenges from global challenges The 2009 State of the Future report of the UN Millennium Project was chosen (Glenn et al. 2009) as a starting point for deriving the Fraunhofer
The 14th issue (Glenn et al. 2009) was used. The following process steps were performed to distill specific Fraunhofer challenges from the report:(
The most convincing proposals received substantial funding for three years. A second round of calls was successful
E5 million in funding for each challenge within the Future markets programme are to be spent (starting in 2011.
There are three years to execute the projects. In the end, a‘result'has to be presented. The jury selected five convincing projects addressing three Fraunhofer challenges:.
A four-year strategic plan is defined in an interactive manner with the ministries. The plan fixes the direction for the coming years.
The theme lines of the strategy plan are developed then in top-down processes. In addition, TNO has‘enabling technologies'programmes..
The five research projects that were selected started in 2011, so it is too early to evaluate their concrete impacts.
Fraunhofer future markets. 243 The authors of this paper were involved in the concept and practical application of the 2010 Fraunhofer futureorieente process.
Notes 1. See<http://www. hightech-strategie. de/de/81. php>accessed 15 july 2011. This is the strategy of the German government in science and technology fields,
see also<http://www. bmbf. de>accessed 15 july 2011. References Blind, K.,Cuhls, K. and Grupp, H. 2001)‘ Personal attitudes in the assessment of the future of science and technology:
A factor analysis approach',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 68: 131 49. Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegemann, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'.'Sevilla: JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, EUR 24364 EN, European commission Report.
2010)‘ Ideen. Innovation. Wachstum. Hightech-Strategie 2020 fu r Deutschland'.'Bonn/Berlin: Bundesministerium fu r Bildung und Forschung,<http://www. hightech-strategie. de/de/81. php>accessed 20 july 2011.
Cuhls, K. 2008)‘ Millennium Project 2050',in‘European commission/Directorate General for Research: The European foresight monitoring Network:
Collection of EFMN Briefs',pp. 201 6. Luxemburg: Office for Official Publications of the EU. Cuhls, K.,Blind, K. and Grupp, H. 2002) Innovations for our Future.
Delphi'98: New foresight on Science and Technology. Technology, Innovation and Policy, Series of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, No. 13.
Heidelberg: Physica. Frost and Sullivan. 2010) World's Top Global Mega Trends to 2020 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures.<
<http://www. frost. com/sublib/display-report. do? ctxixplink=Fcmctx5&searchquery=World%27s+Top+Global+Mega+Trends&bdata=ahr0cdovl3d3dy5mcm9zdc5jb20vc3jjac9 jyxrhbg9nlxnlyxjjac5kbz9xdwvyevrlehq9v29ybg Qlmjdzk1rvccthbg9iywwrtwvnystucmvuzhnafkb TZWFYY2GGUMVZDWX0C0B%2bqdezmze2mzy3odgzo Dg%3d&ctxixplabel=Fcmctx6&id=M65b-01-00-00
-00>accessed 13 march 2012. European commission. 2009) The World in 2025. Rising Asia and Socio-ecological Transition, EUR 23921 EN.
Brussels: European commission..(2011)‘ Communication from the Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee fo the Regions'.
'Horizon 2020: The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, COM (2011) 808 final. Brussels: European commission. Glenn, J. C.,Gordon, T. J. and Florescu, E. 2009)‘ 2009 State of the Future;
The Millennium Project'.<'<http://www. millennium-project. org/millennium/sof2009. html>accessed 20 july 2011. Horx, M. 2007)‘ Megatrends'.<
'<http://www. horx. com/Reden/Macht-der-Megatrends. aspx>accessed 15 july 2011 (authors'own translation.
Klingner, R. and Behlau, L. 2008)‘ Fraunhofer Future topics: FTA as part of the strategic planning of a distributed contract research organisation',paper presented at Third International Seville Conference on FTA, held Seville, Spain, 16 7 october 2008.
Kolz, H. and Hadnagy, C. 2012)‘ A regional foresight process to cope with demographic change: Future radar 2030 (Zukunftsradar 2030)',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, forthcoming special issue.
Lund Declaration. 2009), See<www. se2009. eu/..fs/1...lund declaration final version 9 july. pdf>accessed 20 september 2011.
Naisbitt, J. 1984) Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives, Amsterdam: Warner. Popcorn, F. 1993) Der Popcorn Report, Heyne:
Mu nchen..(1999) Clicking. Der neue Popcorn Report, Mu nchen: Heyne. Steinmu ller, A. and Steinmu ller, K. 2004) Wild Cards.
Wenn das Unwahrscheinliche eintritt. Hamburg: Murmann. Steinmu ller, K. 2011)‘ Wild Cards Preparing for the unpredicttable Wild cards in the framework of risk assessment and horizon scanning,
'paper prepared in connection with the project iknow.<<http://community. iknowfutures. eu/pg/pages/view/3528>accessed 22 july 2011.
UN Millennium Challenges. 2005), See<http://www. millennium-project. org/millennium/challenges. html>accessed 19 july 2011.244.
K. Cuhls et al
< Back - Next >
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011