The Delphi method is discussed also from the viewpoint of a combination with road mapping (Kanama et al. 2008).
integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 184-200.
and a hint of roadmapping. More importantly, we suggest that TLC would be complemented by informal
The concept of roadmapping has its roots in science and technology planning 55. A science or technology roadmap is like a highway roadmap that describes how one might proceed from a starting point to a final destination expressed as a vision.
Linking scenarios with technology roadmapping initiates an exploratory and creative phase to identify and understand uncertainties.
whereas roadmapping provides a framework for condensing all information in one map and timeframe revealing windows of opportunity thus linking decision-making with future scenarios.
and establishing a common vision among the innovation stakeholders as a boundary framework before moving into technology roadmapping 70.4.2.2.
As acknowledged in the previous sections (see also Tables 2 and 3), cross-fertilization between scenario approaches and techniques, such as framing boundaries, roadmapping,
The Fast Start to Technology Roadmapping, Planning Your Route to Success, Centre for Technology management, Ifm University of Cambridge, 2001.56 T. J. Gordon, S&t roadmapping, in:
. Borch, From Future scenarios to Roadmapping: Guiding Exploratory Innovation and Strategy, the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
12 & 13,may 2011, May 13 2011.71 O. Saritas, J. Aylen, Using scenarios for roadmapping: the case of clean production, Technol.
In this paper, FTA is used as the umbrella term covering subfields such as technology foresight, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping and technology assessment cf. the list in 29 and combining tools, ranging fromquantitative methods
the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name
and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,
In planning subsequent such FTA gatherings, it may be useful to look for signs of shared sense-making frameworks able to encompass, on the one hand, a tightly constrained roadmapping of a given technology within the assumptions of a specific scenario of national/European competitiveness,
and operational parameters imposed by a roadmapping exercise. Without finding ways to cover this range of FTA there is the danger that the FTA conferences become a set of disconnected conversations,
Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems Cristiano Cagnin a b,,*Totti Ko nno la c adg Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic studies and Management
Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 30 online tools to engage project partners and the supporting roadmapping group4 in well-defined stages.
The meetings conducted during crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the definition of a common vision for the roadmapping work.
but most importantly to scan dimensions used in previous scenario and roadmapping projects; 2. Linking the findings of previous projects and research with the results of the mapping, the interviews and the first online survey.
and the roadmapping support group for final refinements and to ensure that it encompasses all IMS regions.
In a second stage and after approval of the defined scenario snapshots by all project partners and IMS regions, including the roadmapping support group,
including the roadmapping support group, through an online wiki that had over 2500 visits. The refined research topics were then prioritised in terms of (i) a timeline between 2010 and 2020,(ii) inter-dependencies between research topics (those
ii) continuous recruitment of new members comprising both research and industry stakeholders for the Roadmapping Supporting Group, especially outside the existing IMS community,
and roadmapping process shed light on some of the challenges that arise when organising global foresight exercises. Table 1 summarises the main lessons learned using four principles that need to be taken into consideration when designing and managing an international foresight exercise.
Finally, it supported the scenario and roadmapping work which had to be adapted in order to closely involve partners during a period of almost two months.
European commission and roadmapping group) to share a common understanding of the system under analysis. It also allowed all the involved parties to explore likely ways in which it could evolve.
in the vision building Roadmaps Stocktaking of the results from other phases Inclusion of multiple dimensions in roadmapping frame Intensive online panel work Cross feeding among different roadmaps to coordinate
The meetings were dedicated to the crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the common definition of the vision for the roadmapping work.
including roadmapping group Formal Interviews, mutual learning workshops, online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal Online surveys, wiki platform, website
and appropriate funding mechanisms. 5. Conclusions The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on how future global collaborative research
joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 27 65.6 O. Saritas, Systems thinking for Foresight,(Ph d. thesis), Manchester
It explains the development of a particular variation of a roadmapping technique, the so-called‘multi-path mapping'(MPM) toolset by exploring its prospects
and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.
lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems, Futures (2014)( forthcoming. 52 M. G. Lipe, S. E. Salterio, The balanced scorecard:
, scenario analysis, technology forecasting, roadmapping, and backcasting or the above-mentioned s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models. Thus, it supports companies'efforts to sense change
roadmapping and target costing 39, business modeling and future studies. The outcome of the applied futures research methods is broadened substantially in projects with interdisciplinary character and a combination of knowledge and insight from various industries.
, scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping Project 2. 3 Thematic innovation radar Identifies new technologies, trends and topics in a predefined thematic field Project 2. 4 Working group Provide a setting to explore future topics
Roadmapping Backcasting, technology/product roadmapping, science mapping multipath mapping (Robinson and Propp, 2006) Scenarios Scenario management, quantitatively based scenarios, different emphases and dark scenarios (Punie et al.
'The technology roadmapping method has been used in the present authors'previous region-wide studies (APEC CTF, 2006.
The new challenge in the present study is the roadmapping of converging technologies within the diversity of the Asia-pacific region.
the technology roadmapping technique was applied to analyze the linkage between the development of supporting technologies
Technology roadmapping The structure of the roadmaps used in this study was designed by adapting from the generic format of a product/technology roadmap (Phaal et al.
and identify key technology applications to combat EID Phase II Final Symposium Roadmapping II Roadmapping I Figure 2 Information flow through the project Biosecurity and
The structure of the roadmaps used in this study is shown in Figure 3. Two roadmapping workshops were organized in Tokyo in Japan on 22 24 may (42 experts from nine economies) 2007 and in Taipei, Chinese Taipei
The model Was developed in Roadmapping I Developed in Roadmapping II Figure 3. Structure of technology roadmaps Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 46 proposed at the workshop
Recommendations for this research domain are shown in Table 2. The second roadmapping workshop was organizze
All the technology research and application domaain identified in the roadmapping workshops fit with the life cycle model (see Figure 5). In keeping with the theme of converging technologies,
and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA. Bibliometric analysis and online survey complement each other in providing insights
Roadmapping Converging technologies to Combat Emerging Infectious Diseasses Bangkok: APEC Center for Technology foresight. APEC Leaders'Declaration, APEC, 2006. 14th APEC Economic Leaders'Meeting, Ha Noi Declaration, Ha Noi, Viet nam, 18 19 november 2006.
Valovirta and Loikkanen describe the developmmen of a new policy instrument, innovation policy roadmapping, and its role in assisting in aligning technologgica and societal perspectives with the more visionary framework necessary to address grand challenges.
This instruumen adapts the methodology of technology roadmapping to addressing critical innovation policy challennge at the level of national and regional innovation systems, within a global context.
which comprises technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, technollog assessment, and foresight. In addition, this methodological approach was based on the perception that decision-making emerges from a negotiaatio between multiple actors.
wild cards, SWOT analysis, roadmapping, web survey and interviews, expert panel, conference and workshops, multi-criteria and stakeholder analysis, indicator developmeent benchmarking,
2011) Deals with a deliberate roadmapping approach both to rapid and gradual systemic transformations characterised by complexity
and also horizontal and pervasiiv anticipatory culture‘Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for policy design'Ahlqvist et al.
2012) Focuses on gradual multilevel complex deliberate transformatiions which can be identified with a roadmapping exercise Identification of suitable policy instruments and/or strategies for various governance modes External service (projects and programmes),
and policy roadmapping activities‘Linking territorial foresight and urban planning'Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al. 2012) Addresses spatial dimension in gradual transformation, combining both reactive and deliberate approaches in scenario work that integrate spatial dimensions of urban planning Elements of different modes of governance addressed.
2011 (SEC 2010) References Ahlqvist, T.,Valovirta, V. and Loikkanen, T. 2012)‘ Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking policy design',Science and Public policy, 39
lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems, 'paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain, 12 may 2011.
Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking policy design Toni Ahlqvist1,,*Ville Valovirta2 and Torsti Loikkanen2 1vtt Technical research Centre of Finland, Ita inen Pitka katu 4, Turku, P o box 106,20521 Turku, Finland 2vtt Technical research
This paper presents innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM) as a methodologgica framework for linking R&d results to systemic policy contexts and to forward-looking policy design.
roadmapping; systemicity; forward-looking policy design; foresight; socio-technical transformation. 1. Introduction Since the 1960s, the results of R&d practices have increasinngl been approached as knowledge inputs in the construuctio of science and technology policies.
This paper discusses how the methodology of roadmapping could be applied as an instrument in systemic policy contexts.
In recent years, roadmapping has been applied increasingly as an instrument of strategy-making (Blackwell et al. 2008.
the paper introduces a methodology for roadmapping systemic transformations. The IPRM method combines roadmapping and the forward-looking evaluation of policy development paths.
IPRM integrates the approach of technology roadmapping including such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with the perspectives of systemic policies and policy instruments.
IPRM is targeted also at the systemic level of multiple actors and organizations. Thus, this visionary process includes many participants and different interests.
Innovation policy roadmapping. 179. Symbolic function, i e. that policy is based on informatiio that is shared and collaboratively interpreted.
In the following section, we discuss how roadmapping can be used in fostering forward-looking policy design. 3. IPRM:
a framework for forward-looking policy design 3. 1 Methodological background IPRM is an integrative method that combines the two cultures of roadmapping with a sensibility towards systemic aspects of socio-technical transformation.
IPRM builds on two cultures of roadmapping (on roadmapping, see Barker and Smith 1995; Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
The first is the culture of technology roadmapping, in which roadmapping is approached as a normative instruumen to identify relevant technologies
and align them with explicit product plans and related action steps. In this culture the roadmapping process is a systematic managemmen practice aimed at product development.
The second is the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping in which the roadmapping is perceived more as a dynamic
and iterative process that produces weighed crystallizzations usually in a visual form, of an organization's long-term vision,
and short-to medium-term strategies to realize this vision. It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives that describe the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
This‘second culture'is methodologically more exploratory than traditional technology roadmapping. The roadmaps are approached not as‘hermetic'plans to achieve definite goals (e g. new products),
Strategy roadmapping is also about engaging and empowering people. This idea links the strategy roadmapping to organization and strategy studies, especially to strategy crafting (Whittington and Cailluet 2008;
Heracleous and Jacobs 2008. IPRM can be compared to a transition management (TM) framework. TM was developed in The netherlands in the early 2000s (e g.
First, IPRM springs from a roadmapping tradition and thus places significant emphasis on the process and systematic form of information.
The second way to apply a roadmapping approach to policy design is to facilitate systemic change by identifying those societal needs
With regard to a set of pressing‘grand challennges such as climate change, an aging population, depletiio of mineral resources or shortages of food and water, roadmapping can identify latent societal demand, for example, in the context of sustainability.
Roadmapping can articulate these needs more explicitly and link them with emerging technological and industrial development.
or the Innovation policy roadmapping. 181 system could also refer to a convergence of sectors, for example in the case of functional foods.
Hybridization allows the roadmapping process to escape process lock ins that can result from too rigid a process.
Innovation policy roadmapping. 183 4. 2 Outline of the transformation roadmap In this case, the roadmap knowledge was crystallized in a transformation roadmap (Fig. 3). The working vision for the green and intelligent buildings roadmap,
Innovation policy roadmapping. 185 5. Case study 2: Roadmap of environmentally sustainable ICT, Finland 5. 1 Background The second case study is a roadmap of an emerging systemic field:
and a technology roadmap (see Fig. 5). The roadmapping process was completed in three working phases. Phase I was a landscaping phase that was realized in three steps.
The third step was the selecctio of the relevant themes for the actual roadmapping process.
Phase II was the roadmapping. First, a specific roadmapping core group was set up. Secondly, an expert workshop with 16 technology experts was organized.
Phase III involved the elaboration of the roadmap. The first step was a round of comments in
which selected technollog experts iterated the results of the roadmapping workshop. The second step was the updating of the roadmap document.
Innovation policy roadmapping. 187 role. The utilization of smart metering and sensor technologies could result in more elaborate energy consumpptio information,
We discussed how the roadmapping approach can create strategic guidance for identifying the type of steps required for transformation towards a shared vision to take place.
The roadmapping approach represents a form of foresight which can contribute to dealing with the web of future dependencies.
We conclude this paper by emphasising two related contribuution that the roadmapping approach can bring to innovation policy and forward-looking policy design.
First, innovation policy roadmapping contributes to enhancing the systemic benefits of foresight. Our conclusiion support the views of Georghiou
the roadmapping approach can combine issues of strategic intervention with potential lock ins and systemic interdependencies.
Identification of these complementary elements and associated interdependencies is an important contribution that a roadmapping approach can illuminate.
These societal elements can also be grasped in a systematic roadmapping process. Acknowledgements Toni Ahlqvist wishes to thank the Academy of Finland (grant SA 132628) for the financial support that enabled the writing of this paper.
Innovation policy roadmapping. 189 Eerola, A. and Loikkanen, T. 2009) Governance and Research of Nordic Energy system Transition-Summary Report of the Gorenest Project, VTT Research Notes 2505.
Farrukh, C.,Phaal, R. D. and Probert, R. 2003)‘ Technology roadmapping: Linking technology resources into business planning',International Journal of Technology management, 26:12 9. Gann, D. and Salter, A. 2000)‘ Innovation in project-based, service-enhanced firms:
Lee, S. and Park, Y. 2005)‘ Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 72: 567 83.
Phaal, R. and Muller, G. 2009)‘ An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy',Technological forecasting & Social Change, 76:39 49.
Phaal, R.,Farrukh, C. J. P. and Probert, D. R. 2004)‘ Technology roadmapping a planning framework for evoluttio and revolution',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71:5 26.
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