which acts as a powerful tool for the exploration of the long-term future of closely interacting policy-related issues (including human development, social change and environmental sustainability).
sometimes corresponding with the requirement to develop technologies that contribute to sustainable development (whatever the criteria for that might be).
It is perhaps not ill-founded to state that the treatment of central challenges of the sustainability discussion,
particularly the sustainability assessments of technology, is prepared by decades of experiences with technology assessments. Consideration of the long term perspective
and methodical approaches of technology assessment for sustainability assessments of technology 2. The requirements on sustainability assessments and their consideration in decision-making represent until now unknown degree of methodical challenges even with regard to very ambitious concepts of technology assessment,
and sustainable development (for an up-to-date and comprehensive overview see Ref. 3). On the other hand, nanotechnology has been the subject of an extensive public debate in Europe
In this situation, is it possible to find ways to consider knowledge about the potential impacts of a technology which admittedly is gained with high uncertainty and its assessment with regard to sustainability already in early phases of technology development?
in order to identify and to strengthen positive sustainability effects, the bsustainability potentialq of technologies, and to recognise, to mitigate
or to even avoid negative impacts on sustainability? Wanting to do this completely ex ante certainly means to overstrain the ambitions of this intention.
which the emergence of new technologies is accompanied by mutual co-operation between technology development and impact analysis, between sustainability research and nanosciences,
political requirements to orientate R&d budgets on the potential contribution of new developments to sustainable development puts some pressure on the TA practitioner.
at building a knowledge base for further detailed investigations about the potential of nanomaterials, especially with regard to sustainable development,
when TA results are expected to contribute to the sustainability assessment of emerging technologies. Nanotechnology is considered mainly as one of the technological developments to have far-reaching impacts on the industries of this century.
Together with the hopes for nanotechnology's exploitation for wealth creation, competitiveness, sustainability and health, growing concerns about its potential to change ways of living,
while simultaneously following their vision of the tenets of sustainable development? Cagnin and Loveridge focus on innovation networks by suggesting a dynamic framework of continual learniin that enables a business to develop a capacity to anticipate
using FTA thinking to shape a pathway of a business towards sustainable development. The objective of the framework is to help organisations create a tailored,
in order to achieve coherence among network partners in progressing towards higher levels of sustainability. They argue that, in addition to governments
A business framework for enabling networks to evolve towards sustainable development. Technology analysis & Strategic management 24, no. 8:
lessons from the sociology of expectations Harro van Lente a a Department of Innovation studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The netherlands Published online:
lessons from the sociology of expectations Harro van Lente*Department of Innovation studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, The netherlands Foresight can be described as the articulation of possible futures.
Notes on contributor Harro van Lente is Socrates Professor of Philosophy of Sustainable development at Maastricht University and Associate professor of Innovation studies at Utrecht University.
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnin a b & Denis Loveridge c a DG Joint research
Cristiano Cagnin & Denis Loveridge (2012) A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 797-820, DOI:
8 september 2012,797 820 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnina, b*and Denis Loveridgec adg Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological
using future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking to shape the business's path towards sustainable development. The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships.
with the support of FTA, achieving influence among their partners to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development,
in order to reach the desired common vision of sustainability. Keywords: network vision; management framework and path to sustainable development;
dialogue and interaction; disruptive and transformative change; FTA and complex ecosystems 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking is used in an explanation
and a model of how companies create enduring continuity needed for sustainable development (Brundtland 1987). This paper suggests a dynamic framework of continual learning to enable businesses to anticipate
The sustainable development of a business depends on the integration of sustainable thinking into mainstream decision-making and core operational processes:
and D. Loveridge Sustainability can be defined as the capability of an organisation to persist into the long-term future:
sustainable developmentwould then be needed the processes tomove towards sustainability (SIGMA2001. Therefore, policy-makers'responses to sustainability are multifaceted choices that must consider the interdependencies between the many dimensions of sustainable development.
Hence, business sustainability evolves from the linear concept of a value chain introduced by Porter (1985) or the current paradigm of supply chain management or value nets (Bovet and Martha 2000a, 2000b, 2000c, 2000d, 2000e.
The analysis of value within a firm (Porter 1980, 1985a, 1985b,1991, 1997), through the integration of customers into the chain (Mcstravic 1999) and later the incorporation of suppliers/deliverers as well as customers (Bovet and Martha 2000
In this paper, a new concept of networked sustainability (Cagnin 2005) is introduced as an evolution of the value Net value is redefined to be a triple-bottom-line balance of the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within a business's network:
the redefinition is based on universal principles (Covey 1997) shaped by six dimensions of sustainability (Bursztyn et al. 1999;
Section 3 describes that networked sustainability goes one step beyond the value net by consideriin the global system within
It is based on universal principles and shaped by the other three pillars of sustainable development: spatial-technological, institutional-political and cultural-values.
and Watts 2002) are the cornersstone of networked sustainability. Moreover, the value activities in the network must align
and what roles can FTA play as well as how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability?
to sustainable development. The processes and activities embrace the necessity for internal and externna communication of social and ethical actions;
first, in a group of critical principles that need to be internalised into the core of the organisation's operations to shape the route towards sustainable development and, second,
in order to design its individual path towards sustainable development and implement the envisaged plan. The group of generic behaviours or actions is that
so that companies can effectively follow their (network) vision of sustainable development. Each of the most used business sustainability tools (Appendix 2) is allocated according to the four main functions that the tool can perform inside companies and the six dimensions of sustainability.
The current gaps that are being tackled by the proposed framework in comparison to the analysed tools are depicted also.
shaped by a firm's individual context and culture, will offer different and clear possibilities to implement the organisation's (network) vision of sustainable development.
so that it can shape a strategy to achieve the desired vision of sustainable development and implement the designed plan to meet this vision,
a path towards networks'sustainable development 3. 1. Network value activities Traditionally, in a network, value activities are the building blocks by
to enable business networks 801 Figure 1. Business sustainability activities model. Source: Cagnin (2005. development and delivery of responsible products and services across the network throughout their life cycle.
For the six dimensions of sustainability to be embedded in a firm's core operations, its operatiiona activities must be integrated throughout its network and in alignment with a common strategy across the network.
and mutual understanding among the actors involved to enable the whole network to pursue the same vision of sustainable development.
and the intangible assets underlying sustainable development are partnerships, strategy, communication, competencies, motivation, technology and operations. These are needed the activities for the creation of value in sustainable development (Cagnin 2005.
Appendix 3 summarrise the main characteristics of these value activities. Figure 1 depicts the business's Activities Model
3. 2. Basis for the management framework and roles that FTA can play The proposed management framework aims to support the achievement of a business with aligned socioeconomic environmental performance across its network that helps firms develop a participaativ process throughout to shape a common vision of sustainable development
and follow its path to sustainable development. The framework is dynamic to incorporate changes along the way
and its networks'progress towards the common vision of sustainable development. The dynamic capability and ability to behave as a complex system are
Rather than looking for one generic business model for sustainability firms should work out their own model that brings new opportunities through dialogue
Hence, firms should use the evolutionary lessons as a main step in integrating sustainable development into the business model.
the firm will be armed then with better and clearer opportunities for an evolutionary leap in sustainability performance and to deal with disruptive change, in alignment with the partners in its network.
allowing an evolutionary leap in sustainability performance to materialise. The broad stages of this management framework are described in Appendix 4,
which are critical to achieve a common vision of sustainable development as well as to mobilise and coordinate resources Design the business FTA as a source of strategic intelligence provides insights into possible and desirable directions
in which each and every node of the network becomes an embedded participant that actively shapes the path to a common vision of sustainability Source:
sustainable development is a major challenge. The limited notion of what constituute‘sustainable development'is itself a riddle that any company faces.
For most, the undeclared psychological imperative is to maintain‘successful continuity'and their independence. The secoon unspoken but implicit theme for a company is knowing that successful continuity,
while attempting to followwhat a firm believes to be its sustainable development and that of its mutually supporting network of businesses?
FTA cannot remove the uncertainty that surrounds its contribution to or nature of sustainable development in the wider context of its supporting network and society as a whole.
The aim of the Maturity Model is to shape a possible business path towards sustainable developmment outlining how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability.
It offers the possibility for each firm to assess its position regarding five maturiit levels for sustainable development.
it may also influence partners in their progress towards higher levels of sustainable development. The Maturity Model suggested in Table 3 (Cagnin 2005) uses the notion of evolution in
which a company will be seeking to achieve its (network) vision of sustainable development in uninterrrupte cycles of improvement.
The design of the Sustainability Maturity Model is founded on universal principles as well as the maturity of behaviours that can lead to the development of a mature business throughout its network of relationships (Cagnin 2005)
founded on a shared vision for sustainable development to be pursued by all actors, with interdependent and agreed roles;
and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 806 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 3. Business sustainability maturity model.
Maturity levels 3-Managed with no 4-Excellence at corproate 5-High-performance Value activity 1-Ad hoc 2-Planned in isolation integration level sustainability net Strategy-Overhead,
change factors as an unpredictable serendipity-Sustainability functionally isolated; firm's main objective is to gain capital efficiency-Objectives only partly known-Systematisation of existing practices-Objectives identified
and intution-Formal and powerful processes-Sustainability-driven firm-Positive emotions (ratio at or above 2. 90) lead to creativity across the sustainability net, focus on innovative ideas-Participative process;
and integrated across the net-Collaborative innovation and continuous sustainability performance improvement system, inter-group learning-Values (universal principles) embedded in every process Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
level sustainability net Technology-Focus on manual individdua routine automatiion craft development character-Embryonic-Databased, IT used to build systems that cross functions
The above descriptions present a useful heuristic to complex systems and the interactions between the dimensions of sustainable development
but also enable all actors within such networks to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development. What one part does to another is interpreted indefinitely
or for moving the whole system towards higher levels of sustainable development. Dialogue and information-sharing, founded on trust,
which can support firms through the process to shape business sustainable development throughout their networks of relationships.
Comparatively, this indicates that an organisation can progress towards sustainable development more efficiently and responsibly by integrating the six dimensions of sustainability into its core operations.
The framewoor then exhibits the promise of embedding, in its structure, critical principles that are taken often not into account by existing tools
and shows the necessary activities and the interrelationships that need to be managed systemically to shape business sustainability.
to enable business networks 811 Table 4. Business sustainability management framework. s e i t i v i t C a-b U s s e i t
and reviewing the vision of sustainability Strategy Establish leadership commitment; and strategic architecture definition and review Partnerships Identify
alignment definition and review Design the business Defining and reviewing the strategy to implement the vision of sustainability Strategy Strategic and tactical planning definition and review Partnerships Partnerships selection;
legal Run the business Implementing the vision of sustainability Business Sustainability Maturity Model Business Path to Sustainability Comparing present performance (as it is) with the business
and the network vision for sustainability (as it ought to be) in order to keep the firm on track of its designated vision Monitor the business Collecting
and monitoring relevant information to keep the business on track of its vision of sustainability Strategy Performance, environment, capabilities, constraints, opportunities,
performance reporting Sustain the business Achieve the identified vision of sustainability and giving subsidies for the creation of a new vision Verify
and preparing the whole network to walk into a higher sustainability maturity level 5th Maturity Level Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 812 C. Cagnin
and creating an evolutionary leap in sustainability performance. The implications for policy and decision-making are manifold.
Progress towards sustainable development may depend on building dynamic partnerships among these three pillars (Holliday, Schmidheiny, andwatts 2002.
this would also enable the development of a common base of knowledge and sustainability vision,
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technollogy Development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
Putting sustainable development into practice a guide for organisations. London: Published by BSI for the SIGMA project.
An information architecture to enable business sustainability. Phd thesis. Manchester: University of Manchester. Cajazeira, J. E. R. 1997.
A self-organizing systems perspective on planning for sustainability. B. Sc. Thesis, University of British columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
The business case for sustainable development. San francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler. ISO. 2012. International organisation for Standardisation. http://www. iso. org/iso/iso catalogue. htm (accessed June 2012.
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The SIGMA project sustainability in practice. The SIGMA guidelines: Pilot Draft, SIGMA Project Management Team. http://www. projectsigma. co. uk/Guidelines/default. asp (accessed January 2004) Tuomi, I. 2011.
to enable business networks 817 Appendix 2. Existing business sustainability tools and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed
Business Business Business Business Business Business Sustainability Sustainability Sustainability Sustain. Sustain. Sustain. Concept Concept Concept Concept Concept Concept AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 OECD guide
OECD guide OECD guide OECD guide OECD guide CRT OECD CSR OECD CSR OECD CSR Lisbon CRT UNGC Lisbon Lisbon
which will guide the organisation in the long run to achieve its desired vision of sustainable development and gain sustainable competitive advantages Communication The ability to document
Furthermore it is time to define a vision for sustainable development to be pursued in alignment with the seven dimensions of sustainability,
Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy
in order to shape sustainability and learning along the process. Monitor the business C It is to monitor all necessary information of how the business is running
This phase is where sustainability performance evolutionary leaps can occur bringing, as a consequence, processes of innovation and the changes needed for survival
Her research interests are especially in future-oriented research in linking ecological and social aspects of sustainability and in social impact assessment.
ICT for environmental sustainability. Green ICT roadmap. VTT Research Notes 2532. Arnold, E.,J. Clark, and Z. Jávorka. 2010.
methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable growth through science and technology. It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.
Driving towards Sustainable growth and Quality Jobs''was formulated in 2009 (Executive Office of the President, 2009),
2. sustainable growth through green innovation; 3. successful model for healthy-aging society; and 4. secure life. 2. 2 Delphi Delphi is characterized by repeated questions for the collective convergence of opinions,
Driving Towards Sustainable growth and Quality Jobs, Executive Office of the President, National Economic Council, Office of Science and Technology policy, WASHINGTON DC.
Using the adaptation of businesses to sustainability considerations as an example, Cagnin and Loveridge (2011) discuss challenges as well as detailed models and processes.
Cagnin, C. and Loveridge, D. 2011),‘A business framework for building anticipatory capacity to manage disruptive and transformative change and lead business networks towards sustainable development,
The shift to a larger frame of reference could be attributed in part to the broader sustainability narrative
which sustainable development has become increasingly embedded politically, in policy terms, and socially. In a more tangible sense, the European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006) although not couched at the time in precisely the same language of PAGE 30 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013‘‘grand challenges''set out a similar framework for addressing the critical
themes in achieving a more sustainable EU and planet. The seven challenges identified by the EU's SD strategy are:
and 7. global poverty and sustainable development challenges. Within this general backdrop, there emerged a focus on‘‘grand challenges''and within the European union.
versus secularism Social values Behaviour lags in sustainable development Digital natives Complexity and uncertainty Social capital brings returns Quality of life
's Grand Societal Challenges'',Report of the ETP Expert Group, European commission, Brussels. European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006), Review of the European union Sustainable development Strategy Renewed Strategy, available at:
policy to support research'',COM (2004) 353, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004b),‘Stimulating technologies for sustainable development:
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technology development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
and sustainability 43 (See http://www. sitra. fi/en/articles/2012/strategic-design-finlandsneewapproach-problem-solving).
He received his engineering degree at Ecole Centrale (Paris). His key qualifications are Sustainability Policy analysis and impact assessment, and foresight studies.
The proposed approach is illustrated by means of a long-term policy-making case related to the transition of energy system toward sustainability.
Transition of the energy systemtoward sustainability depends on the developments related to new technologies. Such developments are characterized typically by non-linearity and uncertainty regarding technological characteristics and market adoption 48
If the goal is an energy transition toward sustainability, then this ensemble as a whole is unlikely to be acceptable
and a short planning and construction time for Technology 1 also hinder the transition toward sustainability,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 3 E. Pruyt, J. H. Kwakkel, G. Yucel, C. Hamarat, Energy transitions towards sustainability:
The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all societies.
and load curves. 3. 1. Mineral scarcity The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all developed and developing societies.
A good example can be found with the scenario practice developed by the Natural Step3 (see for instance Givaudan case in Appendix 1). The focal points of the scenarios are sustainability concerns and criteria.
Givaudan (2011) Sustainability, translating vision into action. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at www. givaudan. com. 10.
World Business Council for Sustainable development, Washington. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at http://www. wbcsd. org/web/vision2050. htm. 441 P. De Smedt et al./
, Stockholm, 2004.43 P. J. Beers, A. Veldkamp, F. Hermans, D. van Apeldoorn, J. M. Vervoort, K. Kok, Future sustainability and images, Futures
Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 64 A. Geyer, F. Scapolo, European manufacturing in transition the challenge of sustainable development:
Currently Peter works at the Research centre of the Flemish Government where he is in charge of foresight and sustainability assessment.
ethics and sustainability, of emerging technologies mainly inside agriculture, food production, biotechnology and bioenergy. Furthermore, he is an expert in foresight and scenario methodologies,
and to contribute to environmental sustainability 3, cf. 4. In both rationales, different types of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) are used to determine national science and technology priorities,
from forecasting to technological assessment to sustainability studies, J. Clean. Prod. 16 (2008) 977 987.49 TAB, in:
Increasingly, innovation policy strategies such as the European commission's Innovation Union flagship initiative 3 are addressing socioeconomic challenges such as sustainability, health, and security.
Sustainability is another realm where the need for foresight methods that are able to unlock the potential for paradigmatic change rather than just highlighting incremental improvements along current trajectories is strongly emerging.
Sustainability researchers are emphasising that optimisation of current patterns of production and consumption is not sufficient to achieve the order of magnitude in reduction of ecological footprint required to preserve the earth's eco-sphere.
8) Systemic sustainability innovation: Innovation patterns fostering systemtransitions towards sustainability rather than isolated product development are required more andmore
in order to address societal challenges. This requires consideration of social and ecological aspects throughout the entire innovation process.
Manag. 12 (3)( 2008) 255 273.34 J. Grin, J. Rotmans, J. Schot, Transitions to sustainable development, New Directions in the Study of Long term Transformative Change, Routledge
*Patrick Van der Duin c, d a International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands b Pantopicon
International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands.
i) policy and governance,(ii) international Industrial r&d,(iii) knowledge society and (iv) environmental sustainability; 5. Positioning the scenario snapshots within the defined framework.
Reflexive governance For Sustainable development, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2006, http://www. eelggarenvironment. com/Bookentry contents. lasso?
. Sriram, Developing a Sustainability Manufacturing Maturity Model. The IMS Summer School Manufacturing Strategy First Edition 2010:
nor the shaping of a shared vision to be developed. 3. 2. An example from the higher education sector 3. 2. 1. Rationale The second case focused on a higher education institution that was pursuing a management model focused on efficiency standards for sustainability and continuity in the long run.
with a focus on long term sustainability indicators. These were generated through the development of strategy maps (phase 2), in conjunction with the city of Floriano'polis, SC, Brazil and relevant stakeholders,
but the sustainability of the project is expected to happen only in five years. This means that there is a need to establish clear priorities with deadlines
An information Architecture to Enable Business Sustainability,(Phd thesis), University of Manchester, Manchester, UK, 2005.46 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:
A New Scientific understanding of Living Systems, Knopf Publishing Group, New york, 1997.55 B. Dempster, A Self-organizing Systems Perspective on Planning for Sustainability,(B. Sc. thesis), University
So-called Knowledge and Innovation communities (KICS) were to‘‘become key drivers of sustainable growth and competitiveness across Europe through world-leading innovation''52.
An Integrated Framework of Cyclic Networks for the Assessment of Technological change and Sustainable growth, Delft University Press, Delft, 2000.48 G. Berkhout, The Cyclic Nature of Innovation.
Requirements analysis, institutional analyses, stakeholder analyses, social impact assessment, mitigation strategising, sustainability analyses, action analyses (policy assessment), relevance trees, futures wheel
in order to deveelo more resilient policies towards sustainability. The analysis leads to specific process recommendatiion for national horizon scannings related to how data are gathered,
In The netherlands the aim is to contribute to the future orientaatio of policies towards sustainability,
2006) instrumeen that deliberately challenge policy-makers to look at the uncertainties and the unexpected and deveelo resilient policies towards sustainability.
and develop resilient policies towards sustainability Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 12 discussions with representatives from different ministrries The primary data for The netherlands scan were collected by the COS Horizon scanning team
and impact (taking into account the sustainability dimensioon) At the end of the 2007 round, the issues were published in a final report.
In The netherlands scan, explicit attention was given to the sustainability of society in the light of different sets of shared societal values for
She is also invollve in research on the impact of ICTS on sustainability. She was responsible for the European Perspectives on the Information society (EPIS) project,
In our case, these were mainly sub-dimensions of two sustainability dimensions, namely of the‘sociial and the‘economic'ones.
However, the uncertainntie over the direction of change and the radically different consequences this could have on social and economic sustainability of the sector in Europe made it impossible after the analysis stage to draw any initiia conclusions upon
and further specification of our initial list of issues relevaan to the assessment of the impact of future sociotecchnoeconomic trends on the sustainability of the creative content sector.
Analysis of issues The fourth step of our methodology consisted of the analysis of the scenarios with a view to identifyyin issues that may have an impact on the future sustainability of the sector
and societal sustainability issues (e g. user empowermeent cultural diversity. Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 28 Step 5:
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