'which are used often in literature, do indeed apply. The aim is to increase insight into topics such as the level of acquaintance and experience with scenario analysis methods in strategic policy-making,
policy implementation and policy evaluation (see 8). Indeed, according to literature, scenario analysis methods can be used in the different phases of the policy cycle 1, 2, 4, 6, 9 11.
Section 2 examines the available literature on international foresight management and conceptualises design and managerial issues particularly relevant in the international context.
These principles build on the international foresight literature and our experiences with a global foresight exercise that is described in Section 3. The four principles are:
(i) scientific literature and of (ii) the main areas covered by twenty worldwide existing roadmaps and thirteen ongoing research projects.
when designing and managing an international foresight exercise. 4. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems In the IMS2020 project the understanding of the global system of sub-systems was attained by mapping scientific literature,
workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms
'The paper presents a conceptual framework outlining the major characteristics of emerging knowledge societies, based on a review of the available literature.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 thus advance the existing literature, on how the business sector (e g. industry, industrial associations and foundations) uses FTA TOOLS for a variety of reasons.
(and even hyped) in the literature is a Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
which have become clearer more recently 3. In the literature, the relevance of inclusive approaches and interaction between various stakeholders is emphasised strongly.
The benefits of such user involvement and interaction are discussed widely in the literature. For instance, active and continuous user involvement have been said to lead to‘unique and valuable ideas for future development'15, to more‘socially and environmentally friendly technologies',to an increased‘quality of innovations'16
This relates to another constraint that is often mentioned in literature, i e.,, that users are not aware of the features
3. 2. 1. 1. Phase 1. In the first phase, literature and trend reports concerning current TV watching patterns,
a review of the literature on current television viewing practices and time spending patterns confirmed the observation that TV is still predominantly a lean back medium.
and in the literature in this respect relate to e g.,, the problems with traditional remote controls which are adapted not to new forms of use;
a literature review, ejov Special issue on Living Labs 10 (2008. K. De Moor et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 49
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 76 In the literature review two paths that indicate networked foresight as the next generation of futures research were identified:
issues were collected from a variety of (future) literature and the internet and through consultation with experts (workshops, interviiew etc..
and intensive literature surveys (including foresight, future studies and even science fiction) and panel groups. Horizon scanning seeks to identify what in The netherlands scan are described as potential PTOS
and opportunities---4. Evaluation and weighing of problems and opportunities List P---List O---1. Literature study 2. Consultation of national international experts 6. Formation of clusters
Issuue were selected on the basis of indications in the literature of either positive and/or negative impact on these values.
A review of the literature reveals much in the way of foresight methodology and the rationale for foresight but little about the factors that lead to foresight success. As will be reported later in this paper, even the concept of
) In comparison to futures studies and forecastinng the literature on foresight has paid little attenntio to its actual strategic value.
We did not find much literature that looked at foresiigh success factors. Buetschi and Nentwich (2000) identified several context or foundational success factors for influencing the political role of participatoor technology assessment (see Table 3). These studies tell us that FTA EXERCISES should not be viewed independently of their contexts
a detailed literature review; a short email questionnaire; interviiew with foresight practitioners, managers responnsibl for national foresight efforts in various countries, and;
literature reviews, scenarios, brainstorminng and expert panels. The most striking result is the popularity of the four methods:
The foresight literature is rich on the issue of different methodologiie and project selection but not on the seven factoor identified in this study.
a combinatiio of literature review/bibliometric analysis and online surveys were conducted to preliminarily captuur the trends of infectious diseases.
I Scenario planning Online survey Literature review+Bibliometric Analysis Aim to discuss longer term perspective to enhance the region's capacities that contribute to the successful prevention
As a complement to the literature, we draw on our own experiences in the ROMAS project,
Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of technology policy Recent overviews of the empirical literature suggest that the empirical evidence as to the effectiveness of subsidies is not homogeneous (David et al.
scanning and a literature review. The timeline tool was used also as an alternative for scenario planning. The guidelines used in the process include:.
regarrdin what is envisaged in the literature (European commission 2011:.The creation, expansion, mobilization and maintenance of networks, are considered often as important as the tangible results, such as reports or recommendations..
as generally acknowledged by the literature about innovattio systems, play an essential role in shaping and fosteriin the development of an innovation system,
Section 2 reviews the literature on innovation systems. On the basis of the literature we conceptualize the configuration of the three innovation systems.
Section 3 analyzes the evolution of the Taiwanese innovation systems for biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and agriculture through the lens of the configuration of the three innovation systems.
draws conclusions and makes suggestions for future research. 2. Literature review and the configuration of the innovation systems The conception of the configuration of the three innovattio systems is established on the theoretical foundations of different system approaches.
According to the literature an innovation system is composed of actors and networks technology and knowledge, and institutions.
While the majority of the existing literature on modern biotechnollog focuses on the empirical experiences of European countries and the USA (Mckelvey et al. 2004;
Indeed, the existing literature considers Taiwanese biotechnology to be a‘new sector 'which has emerged only in the last ten years
by analysing recent contributions to the literature as presennte at the 2011 FTA Conference. The analysis identifies the types of transformations addressed, the governance modes in
as well as from the literature)..Phase 2 april 2010 to March 2011: Build exploratory scenarios from the key drivers and conduct a broad consultation with the same range of parties identified for the previous phase..
and a literature scan. The outcome of the web consultation was 174 separate ideas for key drivers from 82 individuals from more than 30 countries.
foresight and forward-looking policy design The concept of a system has different emphases in different branches of the innovation literature.
First, the innovation system literature highlights those organizations that particiipat in the emergence, diffusion and embedding innovatiions such as universities, public and private R&d organizations, companies and various intermediate organizattions and the collective learning processes between these organizations (Smits et al. 2010).
Secondly, the literature on systemic innovations and transition managemeen emphasizes the dynamic relations of sociotechnoologica landscapes, socio-technical regimes and niche-level innovations in the context of emerging technologies (Geels and Schot 2007.
Thirdly, the literature on technological systems places the emphasis on networks of agents in a specific economic or industrial sector and the particular institutional infrastructure involved in the generaatio and diffusion of technology (Carlsson and Stankiewicz 1991.
The knowledge required for building the roadmaps was gathered in a systematic process that combined literature scanning expert interviiew and an assessment workshop.
The foresight literature contains several accounts of the tensions arising from attempts to map out and execute large-scale foresight exercises according to a clear‘bluepriint (Havas 2003).
and other internet sources such as blog reports, literature consultation, but also Conference table 1. Summary of concepts applied in horizon scanning Concept Description Weak signals Citing from Igor Ansoff,
Focused expert review which is assisted by experts'survey, literature review and attending conferences. The first combination can be considered to be more in line with the exploratory scanning approach,
The value of the more‘conventional'methods like expert surveys, literature review and conferennc visits is more relevant for targeted tasks requiring expert inputs like reviewing the state-of-the-art in a given field, searching for comprehensive reports on weak signals
specific for survey and conferencces large for focused expert review, literature review Duration: observation time Through reports, blogs, groups, social networks, Twitter, sites, etc.
literature; conferences for additional signal/issue selection and refinement of reference frame (observation time depends on participants
For literature review and selection of conferences same reference framework Verification method Cross-referencing with other articles Discussions with experts Discussions with experts;
conferences further outlook in literature Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 217 Table 5. Analysis of three combined approaches across evaluation criteria (a) Semi-automated, participatory approach (b
or meta descriptions Connections and clustering is made as reported in survey responses, literature and based on reviewers'expertise.
as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Origins High Medium Medium As included/connected to info piece As revealed by text-mining;
as reported in literature Novelty High High High Cross-checking with scientific databases. Cross-checking with results from recent foresight exercises In focused expert review by tracing back on internet (e g. google timeline) As reported by survey respondents;
as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Ethical, legal, societal issues Medium High High Expert discussions, futurists symposia,
As reported in raw sources in focused expert review As reported in survey responses, literature and raw sources in focused expert review;
In literature review based on documents selected for review based on experts'knowledge. In conferences through discussions with peers Existing strategies and relevant stakeholders Medium Medium High As reported/criticised in raw resources.
and in literature and synthesised by reviewers. In focused expert review secondary scanning can reveal relevant information.
or of critics As reported in survey responses and in literature. As facilitated by narratives in focused expert review.
and stakeholders and usually lead to recommendations As reported in survey responses and in literature. As facilitated by policy workshops Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 219 model-based forecasting.
The particularly novel issues from this survey were added to the issues collected from the literature review. 4. These issues plus the 73 additional issues identified by the survey participants can be found at<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/bepa. html
< Back - Next >
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011