This debate has been in great part centered on the striking similarities between biological evolution and technological/cultural evolution.
and/or disanalogies found between biological and techno-cultural evolution, or in other words, between the evolution of organisms and artifacts.
in comparison with the relatively vast literature found in verbal theories of techno-cultural evolution,
which will inevitably lead to the recognition that cultural evolution is the continuation of biological evolution by other means.
or cultural evolution (we will turn to this aspect when discussing points 4 and 5), but is not sufficient to explain the ubiquity of the logistic curve in the living world.
and even memes (in the cultural realm). Yet it is the arising of these robust and resilient structures, in other words, the emergence of innovations, that is of profound interest,
that can be subsumed under the following questions are innovations (or novelties) in the biological, cultural,
and then answering in the positive the question above about the same nature of novelties in the biological, cultural and technological realm:!
and can be applied easily in the domain of cultural traits or technical artifacts. But, as commented on above,
and Selection In relation to Sex) has devised a theory that was more applicable to cultural traits than to genetics (foreign to his thinking).
's natural selection threw new light on the evolutionary concept of human cultural development. He proposed the natural selection of hypotheses,
This hypothesis has paved the main road followed by modern thinkers in cultural evolution beginning with Donald Campbell 23 in the T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1146 1960s (who coined the term Evolutionary Epistemology to characterize Popper
Technological evolution (and cultural evolution as a whole) must be subject to more or less analogs of these four forces,
In my view Campbell's concept of vicarious forces provide the suitable mechanism to ensure that cultural evolution does favor the fitness of our genes,
or in other words, the basic process of Gene Culture Coevolution, which is the most appropriate approach to develop a firmly based ETTC.
the human massive capacity for culture (and technology) may be seen as a very strong capacity of adaptation to respond to very quick spatial and temporal variations, observed in the Earth homeland since the Pleistocene;
and the horizontal+vertical, cultural) does not imply necessarily the highest degree of perfection, for we must consider the many cultural pathologies observed in human society.
It serves almost exclusively to the human (genetically inherited) quick capacity of response to rapidly changing environments
some promising approaches As already mentioned there is a relatively vast literature in verbal theories of technological and cultural evolution,
cultural evolution (and technological evolution as well) is the continuation of biological evolution by other means;
human technology is a part of a biologically co-evolved massive capacity for culture, managing two inheritance systems, vertical (twofold in scope, genetic and Lamarckian) and horizontal (pure Lamarckian in scope),
cultural and political power as well as by technological rationalism and such indeterminism makes systemic approaches to innovation policy far from linear or predictable.
We therefore cannot ignore the situated nature of that experience and the cultural, historical, and linguistic traditions that permeate our work 27.
Thus through trial-and-error and learning-by-doing 1 The Cost Action A22 network was a four year program (2004 2007) entitled Foresight methodologies Exploring new ways to explore the future and funded by the Individuals, Societies, Culture
Different historical periods, different cultures, and different stages of the lifecycle all display different relationships to time.
predictive, cultural and critical epistemologies, Futures 22 (1990) 115 141.68 E. Weiner, A. Brown, Future Think:
Paper Presented at the Future seminar of the Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, 7th of June, 2007, in:
Many studies in the field of science and technology studies (STS) have shown that nanotechnology is as much a political as a cultural phenomenon 11 14.
The INFU visions gave rise to fundamental discussions among stakeholders regarding possible cultural transitions, new economic principles,
for example efforts to build an anticipatory culture in Research and Technology Organisations, and the establishment by the European commission of a new advisory body, the European Forum for Forward Looking Activities (EFFLA) which includes in its remit the identification of challenges
but there is little to suggest that this creates a common culture at least it can further mutual understanding.
ways of being responsive to diverse languages and cultures, how to build the capacity to reconfigure international networks
The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes Per Dannemand Andersen*,Lauge Baungaard Rasmussen Department for Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet 424,2800 Lyngby
Foresight Governance National culture Policy making A b s T R A c T This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes.
Inspired by sociologists'contributions on national culture, the paper demonstrates that two dimensions of national culture,
power distance and uncertainty avoidance, are useful in the characterisation of the context in which national foresight exercises are carried out.
Countries'or regions'political culture might be closely related to national governance culture. Havas et al. use governance culture to distinguish between the innovation policies in Western European countries, on the one hand,
and industrial) culture's effect on national foresight exercises, and more narrowly, on priority setting in science, technology and innovation policies.
Section 2 briefly resumes the discussions on national culture and introduces a conceptual framework for analysing cultural differences in foresight and planning.
Section 3 contains background information on the Danish economy and culture including (a) the Danish position between liberal and coordinated market economies,
(b) Danish traditions and styles for governmental long range planning and policy making, and (c) Danish experiences with technology foresight.
technology and innovation policies. 2. 1. Sociologists'and anthropologists'perception of culture Cultural differences and styles are very hard to quantify,
The understanding and definition of culture differ depending on the intended use and the academic discipline.
and organisation levels view culture as something that somebody‘‘has''13 16. However anthropologists view culture as the fundamentals of existence.
Anthropologists view cultures as something that an entity‘‘is''17,18. Organisational culture is shared the perception of daily practices within a specific organisational context 13,15.
In contrast, national culture relates to people who are within a certain national context. P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 6 One of the most comprehensive and acknowledged studies of national styles in management, decision making
and planning was carried out by Dutch psychologist and anthropologist Geert Hofstede 19. In this study, we use Hofstede's definition of culture.
He defines culture as‘‘.‘‘the collective programming of mind which distinguishes one national group or category of people from another...
thus)..) The interactive aggregate of common characteristics that influence a human group's response to its environment''20.
According to Hofstede, culture is not directly observable. However, it can be analysed by studying observed behaviour, mimicry, clothes, or statements.
Shared national values impact institutional and organisational thinking and acting within a national context. However, according to Hofstede, organisational behaviour is supposed only to have a small impact on national culture. 2. 2. Hofstede's dimensions of national culture Hofstede takes a bipolar and multidimensional approach to the measurement of national culture.
His dimensions are constructed across nations and he considers them to be meaningless as descriptors of individual or organisational differences 21.
In his original study from the 1970s, Hofstede analysed cultural differences based on attitude questions that were asked of IBM employees in 40 countries.
In the original study, Hofstede presented four dimensions of culture (see Table 1) 20. In later works
The uncertainty avoidance dimension has several implications for national management and planning cultures. In particular, three of these implications relate to foresight:
In contrast, in countries with lower uncertainty Table 1 Hofstede's cultural dimensions 19. Dimension Description Power distance The extent to
The Danish hybrid Hofstede's cultural typology needs to be supplemented with a socioeconomic typology in order effectively to analyse the national specificity of foresight exercises.
This hybrid socioeconomic position of Denmark combined with the cultural aspects of low levels of power distance and uncertainty avoidance have important implications for the specificity of the foresight exercises in Denmark.
Keenan and Popper suggest (with a great deal of precaution) that this difference reflects the democratic culture of these regions.
''foresight based on the socioeconomic and cultural features described above. 3. 1. Danish traditions and cultural context of governmental foresight and long range planning As history and cultural context are important,
Evidence in practice Knowledge production and dissemination of knowledge in society People and societal design Sustainable transport and infrastructure Better life-space space for life and growth Cultural understanding in a globalised world Changing
L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 15 5. Conclusion and perspectives This paper aims to contribute to the discussion of national cultures'effects on national foresight exercises.
The Danish negotiation culture due to a low degree of power distance and uncertainty avoidance as well as an approach that combines market and non-market coordination mechanisms, cannot be emulated directly in countries that have a very different cultural context.
and Networks, Polyteknisk Forlag, DK, 2011.14 E. H. Schein, Organisational Culture and Leadership, 3rd ed.,John Wiley & Sons, NY, 2004.15 G. Morgan
A Theory of Action Perspective, Addison-Wesley US, Reading, MA, 1978.17 T. C. Garrett, D. H. Buisson, C. M. Yap, National culture
a cross-cultural study between Singapore and New zealand, Industrial Marketing Management 36 (2006) 293 307.18 R. K. Moenaert, A. de Meyer, B. J. Clarysse, Cultural
Managing New technology Development, Mcgraw-hill, USA, 1994, pp. 287 314.19 G. Hofstede, Cultural dimensions in management and planning, Asia Pacific Journal of Management 1984
(January)( 1984) 81 99.20 G. Hofstede, Culture's Consequences: International Differences in Work-related Values, Sage, Beverly hills, CA, 1980.21 M. Minkov, G. Hofstede, The evolution of Hofstede's doctrine, Cross Cultural Management:
An International Journal 18 (1)( 2011) 10 20.22 G. Hofstede, M. Minkov, Long-versus short-term orientation:
and cultural embedding Another barrier has to do with the level of embedding of future-oriented thinking and acting.
and procedures) and cultural embedding. In the local cases, policy-makers concluded that one of the key challenges with respect to organisational embedding is to find appropriate operational models
and transform the existing organisational culture. Civil servants indicated that, in their view, the existing culture tends to have a short-term focus,
which can clash with the longteer perspective of most foresight studies. Da Costa et al. 25 stated that a lot of effort and commitment is needed for policymakker to switch from dealing with short-term issues towards a more long-term and holistic approach.
Policy-makers feel that future-oriented policy-making can thrive in a culture where openness and innovation are encouraged
thinking in terms of alternative futures and taking longer-run uncertainties into account is a rather new area of expertise that is still not broadly incorporated into the workings and cultures of local policy organisations.
The same may apply to the level of embedding with regard to the organisation and the organisational culture;
if they are fully in step with the policy-making process, in terms of their timing, cultural compatibility and usability.
Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,
The second principle is responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures. This principle strengthens commitment and encourages learning and creative problem solving.
organisational and cultural differences, and the large number of diverse participants, each with different expectations and needs 2. As a consequence it is essential to take these factors into account in the design
and managerial challenges in order to take into account scale, culture, timing and institutional constraints. Section 6 summarises the main conclusions. 2. Global foresight design and management The design and management of global foresight projects,
Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures. Capacity to reconfigure international networks, and a‘glocal'impact orientation. 2. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems Before starting any foresight venture is important to have a clear idea of the system being analysed
political, value, cultural, among others) 6. Managers of international exercises must also take into account the distinctiveness of local, regional and national subsysstem around the world.
actions and interactions with larger institutional structures. 2. 2. Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Diversity among global participants and their differing constituencies set a coordination challenge that calls for responsiveness towards all
Cultural differences, language barriers, institutional practices, regulatory frameworks, capacities and capabilities of participants to contribute as well as more practical difficulties,
Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of rules
and cultures The most critical stage during the project was the scenario and vision building.
Activities conducted within IMS 2020 Guiding principles for global foresight Understanding interconnected innovation systems Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Capacity to reconfigure international networks A glocal impact orientation
and viewer profiles through the involvement of real users in a cultural probing exercise. The cultural probing method allows researchers to gather subjective information from the users in an everyday context.
Probes are‘collections of evocative tasks meant to elicit inspirational responses from people'29. More concretely
With respect to the digital Internet TV viewers finally, 4 positive and 2 negative users were involved in the cultural probing.
which were explored further in the cultural probing. 3. 2. 2. 2. Phase 2. Fig. 2 provides a schematic overview of the different personas that were developed in phase 2, based on the gathered data on current
and is interested Fig. 1. Examples the cultural probe tools (Day 4 and Day 6). K. De Moor et al./
Moreover, the NP3 is characterised by a need of assistance by others to use the technology. 3. 2. 2. 3. Phase 3. The cultural probing exercise
In Study 2, the design-inspired personas-method was combined with cultural probing, using creativity as a tool to K. De Moor et al./
. Pennington, B. Walker, Cultural probes and the value of uncertainty, Interactions 11 (2004) 53 56.30 F. Sleeswijk Visser, Bringing the Everyday Life of People into Design
and must be the core element of the company's culture 9 and adjustment of organisational strategy elements 6,
of which cultural and educational aspects were considered relevant from the citizens'standpoint. The established dialogue was important to increase the perception of democracy among those involved.
economic, social, political, cultural and technological. Up to the 1980s, futures research focused on forecasting future developments by applying s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models 18 20.
The importance of stakeholder management results from the inter-organizational setup of the EIT ICT Labs. Organizations with very different backgrounds, philosophies and cultures, interests and goals,
Culture and Science neithhe those of the other partners involved in the project. This paper is reworked a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
Departmental Victor van Rij is senior advisor foresight of the Knowledge Directtorat of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science in The netherlands.
Medicine Table 1 Main categories used in the different scans Categories Netherlands UK Denmark Social context Society (including public services) Culture Work life People R&d
culturral ethical and intellectual quality, stimulate cultural development and cultural expression as long as it does not interfere with other dimensioons increasing the intellectual level in service of the other dimensions;
self-realization of (future) citizens (freedom of indiviidual and of religious and cultural expressioon) and stability of international relations (peaceful coexisttenc with the rest of the world.
Positioning of the scans The UK HSC was established in 2005 with a central function to use horizon scanning
and has been provisionally realloccate to the newly formed Knowledge Directorate of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science.
cultural and social respeects The horizon scan was mandated by the Danish parliament in 2006 to feed directly into the research agenda setting.
as well as cultural content)( United nations, 2004). The global entertainment and media industries were estimated to be worth US$1, 255 billion in 2004, North Ameriic leading with a 44.4%share, Europe,
Furthermore Europe's strong cultural heritage provides a sound basis for this sector which is reflected in a 29%world market share (worth US$130 billion) in 2000 (Aho Expert Group, 2006).
and distribution of creative content goods. We therefore defined the creative content sector as the collection of activities involving the creation and distribution of goods with an intrinsic cultural, aesthetic or entertainment value,
'and‘value')makes it possible to adopt a tolerant characterissatio of our subject matter avoiding traditional differentiations between‘high'and low'cultural activities,
publisshin (newspapers and books) and cultural spaces (museums and libraries)( see Figure 1). This looks actually like a heterogeneous bundle of activities, with very different historical roots.
and computer games) Culture and media industries (books, film, entertainment, TV, radio) Related industries and crafts (printing, musical instruments) Informal arts activities (amateur communities) Support
and service (foundations, associations) Public or subsidised arts, media and heritage institutions (museums, theatres, public broadcasting) Public administration and funding Cultural education and training (art
and where creativity and culture play an important role. This led to the selection of music
books, video and films, games, museums and cultural spaces as the focus of our research.
A similar analysis was carried out for books, music, audiovisual and cultural spaces. The results show variations in the interactions between technologies
the relationship between voluntary and professioona content creation activities and between profit-oriented businesses and cultural diversity (as represented by‘core'cultural activities and education;
which scenario were to be realised, with varying consequences for the developmmen of the creative content industries, in particcula in terms of growth, jobs, social inclusion or cultural diversity,
There are also cultural challenges implying that content is not a product like any other but also a cultural good and an expression of diversiit in Europe.
Among the multitude of factors that are potentiaall important for successful future development of the content sector the following deserve particular attention:
and societal sustainability issues (e g. user empowermeent cultural diversity. Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 28 Step 5:
cultural diversity, three-dimensional technologies, next generation networks etc. and are dealt with in different areas of the European commission.
An Overview of research finding and debates prepared for the European Cultural Foundation
Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010031-10 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 31 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
and public controversy Alignment with policy-making agenda schedule Political relevance of topic Political culture open to informal participation Political connections
or culture? What do you think are the critical success factors? What has done your country in various foresight initiatives (national, supranational,
Table 5. Foresight objectives Main objective Sub-objectives Increase societal and economic well-being Economic growth and national competitiveness Societal well being, covering social, environmental, cultural
These are managed by the NISTEP within the Ministry of Education, Science, Technology Sports and Culture (MEXT.
Essentially, the culture of government often tends to discourage full partnerships and strong connections due to mutual differences in operating norms Novel methodologies:
IT and cognitive sciences (NBIC) and that these converging technologies could radically change society, econoom and culture in the next 20 years.
expectations, capabilitiies and cultural sensitivities of the end users. This paper describes the conduct of this regional foresight project using a combination of foresight methods.
stakeholders'decision-making culture and management styles. These are aspects in relation to which a good communication approach may help make the difference between good and bad final results.
and limits associated with their culture, knowleddge training and perceptions and beliefs. The methodologgica approach must induce out-of-the-box thinking, by the cumulative introduction of different visions on the subject, open discussions and the use of creative methods.
The culture of looking ahead, having the past as an important reference..The collective commitment to take joint courses of action.
or share perceptions, free from prejudice, cultural influence, and reasoning processes. This concept requires that experts
This should include social and cultural aspects associated with GMO commercial use and consumption in agricultural and health sectors Future economic and social impacts of GMO technologies;
overcome structural problems and develop a new institutional culture. Thus, the use of the conceptual and methodological approach of strategic foresight to set strategic priorities and action plans
The four phases proposed for the development of the SMP (see Fig. 5) were defined to meet the needs of the process, taking into consideration FINEP's culture and experience in planning and management over the years.
The present authors hope to expand this experiienc to other cultures, societies and realities. These three types differ in the following aspects:.
The establishment of a foresight culture within organizattion or industries, which could result in a better decision-making process.
During the‘pre-reform period',the development of the S&t forces was interrupted frequently by political movements, especially during the Cultural Revolution (1966 76.
After the end of the Cultural Revolution, the direction of China's development policy, and with it its S&t policy, changed radically (Gu and Lundvall 2006;
and attacked during the Cultural Revolution and laying the foundation for a politically favorable environmmen for S&t.
Shi, Y. and Rao, Y. 2010)‘ China's research culture',Science, 329/5996: 1128. Simon, D. and Goldman, M.,(eds),(1989) Science and Technology in Post-Mao China.
DNA (the coding), proteins and molecules, cell and tissue culture and engineeering process biotechnology, and sub-cellular organnism (Laage-Hellman et al. 2004).
Zheng Culture and Education Foundation(.DIT (2009) Yearbook of Medical Devices 2009 2010 (2009-2010.
Zheng Culture and Education Foundation(.National, sectoral and technological innovation systems: Taiwan. 281
Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play Cristiano Cagnin1*,Effie Amanatidou2 and Michael Keenan3 1dg Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies
a culture of learning by doing, ways and intensity of interacttin within and beyond the sector,
An organisation's history, culture and memory are expressed in its missions, values and routines. These contribute to its dynamic capabilities,
and conditions of market action if a newly effective form of social behaviour is coupled with a cultural shift in tastes
and practice for thinking about the future something that is often termed a‘foresight culture'Enhance the standing
Enhancement of the strategic capabilities of individuals and organisatiion through the development of a foresight culture can be an important side effect of any FTA ACTIVITY provided appropriate provisions are made in the design of the new instruments.
2009) derive four modes of governance from argumeent that build on cultural theory (Tukker and Butter Figure 1. Identified types of transformations.
they experience it as a big step, often even a step of transformation of the organisational culture,
or innovation systems compatible with the underpinning culture, institutional conditions and availabbl capacities and resources. Such observations lead to diverse forms of organisational setups for FTA.
2011) outline paths to enable anticipattor culture in research and technology organisations (RTOS) and other organisations.
calling for a change in organisational culture. Networks of FTA practice generate a range of positive impacts particularly in engaging external, often internatioonal experts in FTA.
We can conclude that a substantial benefit can be derived from such networks, in particular for smaller countries or countries with a less developed foresight and anticipatory intelligeenc culture in general.
and also horizontal and pervasiiv anticipatory culture‘Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for policy design'Ahlqvist et al.
Thompson, M.,Ellis, R. and Wildavsky, A. 1990) Cultural Theory. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Tiits, M. and Kalvet, T. 2011)‘ Foresight as an innovation policy tool in smaller catching-up economies:
Even within cultures the way science will go about handling ethical issues and addressing controversial areas of science in areas of high public interest will be significant for the relationship between science and society.
a framework for forward-looking policy design 3. 1 Methodological background IPRM is an integrative method that combines the two cultures of roadmapping with a sensibility towards systemic aspects of socio-technical transformation.
IPRM builds on two cultures of roadmapping (on roadmapping, see Barker and Smith 1995; Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
The first is the culture of technology roadmapping, in which roadmapping is approached as a normative instruumen to identify relevant technologies
In this culture the roadmapping process is a systematic managemmen practice aimed at product development. The second is the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping in
which the roadmapping is perceived more as a dynamic and iterative process that produces weighed crystallizzations usually in a visual form, of an organization's long-term vision,
This‘second culture'is methodologically more exploratory than traditional technology roadmapping. The roadmaps are approached not as‘hermetic'plans to achieve definite goals (e g. new products),
Innovation in the constructiio sector therefore needs to be framed within the larger context of new business processes, contractual arrangemennts organizational culture,
and culture diversity makes opening programmes impractical6 Calls, proposals and peer review Calls for proposals are prepared and disseminated in order to receive project proposals,
capabilities and culture in transnational programming also calls for flexibility in the design and management of the foresight process.
especially in cases where a culture of participation and of transnational research and innovation policy co-ordination is lacking.
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and authors'own expertise. 6. An indicator of the culture of openness may be the past and present openness
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011