transformations and disruptive change while references to adaptation and alignment hinted at strategies for coping Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 Corresponding author at:
lists available at Sciverse Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change with these futures. While it is the task of futurists in general to anticipate,
the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name
J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 and more an input into understanding what its transformative implications might be.
J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 but may not be desirable to achieve.
Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US
, Technological forecasting and Social Change 80 (3)( 2013) 386 397. Luke Georghiou is Professor of Science and Technology policy and Management in the Manchester Institute of Innovation research at Manchester Business school.
and R&i policy at the European and international level, serving on a number of EU expert groups. 470 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467
Certainly, over time the proportion of papers and discussions preoccupied with forecasting and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,
JRC-IPTS has defined FTA as‘a common umbrella term for technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment'12.
evidence refers to reliable documentation, such as statistics and indicators or forecasting of economic development through macroeconomic modelling.
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (May 4))(2008) 462 482.6 O. Saritas, Systemic foresight methodology, in:
Consequently, there was less time to learn from the foresight study in a strategic 1 Particular issues arise in the case of quantitative forecasting models,
the case of Japan, Technological forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 431 447. N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 26
joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 27 65.6 O. Saritas, Systems thinking for Foresight,(Ph d. thesis), Manchester
Toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303.8 T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, V. Brummer, Foresight for European Coordination:
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.16 L a. Costanzo, Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment, Futures 36 (2004
experiences from the preparation of an international research programme, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495.30 D. White, J. Fortune, Current practice in project management an empirical
Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Corresponding author.
1 The FTA acronym refers to strategic foresight, forecasting and technology assessment. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.03.001 The six articles included in this Special issue were presented in 2006.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 The contribution describes methodologies and approaches developed for the purpose.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 thus advance the existing literature, on how the business sector (e g. industry, industrial associations and foundations) uses FTA TOOLS for a variety of reasons.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Fabiana Scapolo: She works at the European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre.
He focuses on text mining for technology intelligence, forecasting and assessment. Michael Rader, Dr. Phil, Sociologist: studied sociology, psychology, political science and economics.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461
Towards Innovation Foresight: Two empirical case studies on future TV experiences for/by users Katrien De Moor a b, 1,,
Proceedings Participatory Design Conference, 2008, pp. 186 189.14 J. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 268
forecasting and technology assessment can play a number of important roles in linking a firm's strategy to its implementation across the value chain.
In this context, the inclusion of forecasting and technology assessment features would allow further experimentation (e g. modelling) in relation to the possible pathways actors can pursue both individually and collectively.
Up to the 1980s, futures research focused on forecasting future developments by applying s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models 18 20.
, scenario analysis, technology forecasting, roadmapping, and backcasting or the above-mentioned s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models. Thus, it supports companies'efforts to sense change
Innovation processes Futures research Generation 1 Technology push Technology forecasting Generation 2 Market pull Technology assessment Generation 3 Coupled innovation processes Exploratory futures research Generation
its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm, Technological forecasting and Social Change 78 (2009) 231 243.6 H. Chesbrough, Open innovation:
and tipping points, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 715 730.19 K. Cuhls, Foresight with Delphi surveys in Japan, Technology analysis & Strategic management 13 (2001) 555 569.20 K
. Cuhls, Methoden der Technikvorausschau eine international U bersicht, Fraunhofer IRB Verlag, Karlsruhe, 2008.21 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities
in Germany, Journal of Forecasting 22 (2003) 93 111.22 P. Saffo, Six rules for effective forecasting, Harvard Business Review 85 (2007) 122 131.23
of new business fields, Technological forecasting and Social Change 79 (2012) 819 831.40 O. Gassmann, E. Enkel
forecasting and technology assessment to reflect on these challenges. The third conference focused on the impact that FTA can have on policy and decisiionmaking and its implications.
and shape future technological developmennts mainly, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment. The FTA labbe brings together a set of widely differing techniqques
making traditional forecasting inadequate to identify the visions for tomorrow needed to inform today's policy-making.
Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75 (4), 462 482. Friedewald, M, von Oertzen, J and Cuhls, K 2007:
Technological forecasting and Social Change, 73 (4), 321 333. Ilmolaa, L and O Kuusibb 2006. Filters of weak signals hinder foresight:
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assesssmen Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Ladikas, Miltos and Michael Decker 2004.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Rollwagen, Ingo, Jan Hofmann and Stefan Schneider 2006.
Journal of Forecasting, 22 (2/3), 219 213
Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010041-10 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 41 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
Technological forecasting & Social Change, 71 (1 2), 5 26. Phucharoenchanachai, Suthee 2005. EID Concept Paper.
New Technollog Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. World health organization 2006.
which comprises technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, technollog assessment, and foresight. In addition, this methodological approach was based on the perception that decision-making emerges from a negotiaatio between multiple actors.
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 462 82. European commission, Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies.
towards integration of the field and new methods',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71: 287 303. Santos, M m.,
of strategic foresight, forecasting and technology assessment. These are oriented future processes that offer policy -and decision-makers the potential to look across (disruptive) transformations
A new approach for analysing technological change',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 74: 413 32. IDEA Consult. 2010)‘ The impact of European policy on the development of the ERA in the areas relevant to environmennt'Draft Final Report.
Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.
Cachia, R.,Compan o, R. and Da Costa, O. 2007)‘ Grasping the potential of online social networks for foresight',Technological forecasting & Social Change, 74: 1179 203.
Calof, J. 2012)‘ Towards developing an instrument to evaluate Future technology Analysis A Canadian case study',Technological forecasting and Social Change (forthcoming.
demand forecasting for energy companies, energy performmanc benchmarking for building operators, dynamic pricing and energy consumption monitoring for individual residents.
Refining the co-evolutionary multilevel perspectivve'Technological forecasting and Social Change, 72: 681 96. Geels, F. W. and Schot, J. 2007)‘ Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways',Research policy, 36: 399 417.
Assessing rationale, process and impact',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 73: 761 77. Heiskanen, E.,Kivisaari, S.,Lovio, R. and Mickwitz, P. 2009)‘ Designed to travel?
Kostoff, R. N.,Boylan, R. and Simons, G r. 2004)‘ Disruptive technology roadmaps',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71: 141 59.
Overall process and detailed modules',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 72: 567 83. Phaal, R. and Muller, G. 2009)‘ An architectural framework for roadmapping:
Towards visual strategy',Technological forecasting & Social Change, 76:39 49. Phaal, R.,Farrukh, C. J. P. and Probert, D. R. 2004)‘ Technology roadmapping a planning framework for evoluttio and revolution',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71:5 26.
Rotmans, J.,Kemp, R. and Van Asselt, M. 2001)‘ More evoluttio than revolution: Transition management in public policy',Foresight, 3: 15 31.
Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.
The design, use and relevance of foresight methods in Hungary',Journal of Forecasting, 22: 179 203.
'Technological forecasting and Social Change, in press. Kaiser, R. and Prange, H. 2004)‘ Managing diversity in a system of multilevel governance:
As facilitated by policy workshops Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 219 model-based forecasting. In general, model-based forward-looking results are taken into account far more seriously by policy-makers than horizon scanning data
Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 76: 327 38. Freund, F. 2011)‘ Pre-earthquake signals:
Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.
Bunn, D. W. and Salo, A. 1993)‘ Forecasting with scenarios',European Journal of Operational Research, 68: 291 303.
Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 74: 608 26.230. T. Ko nno la et al.
Implications for forecastting'Technological forecasting and Social Change, 62:79 90. Martin, B. and Johnston, R. 1999)‘ Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system:
Experiences in Britain, Australia and New zealand',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 60:37 54. Mckinsey & Company (2009)‘ How companies are benefiting from Web 2. 0:
Examining ways of consolidating early detection schemes',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 78: 375 85. Salo, A.,Brummer, V. and Ko nno la, T. 2009)‘ Axes of balance in foresight:
A factor analysis approach',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 68: 131 49. Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegemann, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
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