The challenge to the conventional mantra that economic not human, development, depends on the advancement of science
Firms will need to focus on themes like creativity, breakthrough innovation, entrepreneurial solutions to great challenges, like pandemics and climate change,
On the same theme The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2008 opened with calls from the Co-Chairs to exercise‘‘The Power of Collaborative Innovation''to meet the top challenges of economic instability, climate change and equitable growth.
7. 2. FTA for corporate decision making The challenges faced by corporations reflect the structural changes taking place in the economy and society.
and prepare responses to challenges which have arisen due to: 1. Rapid and accelerating technological progress in pervasive fields such as microelectronics, ICTS, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells and nanotechnologies. 2. Increased financial, trade and investment
flows. 3. New business models for the design, production, distribution, retail and management of products and services. 4. Responses to the challenge of sustainability and changes in demography, in consumer behaviours and in social values,
which can then create a new basis for additional challenges and opportunities that most stakeholders may not have considered previously
These are described both in terms of challenges and potential opportunities for civilization. Fig. 5 illustrates the frequency distribution of trends
Addressing the Cassandra challenge§Ron Johnston a,,*Cristiano Cagnin b a Australian Centre for Innovation, Australia b European commission, DG Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Spain‘‘Cassandra was a daughter of Hecuba
Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history.
The biggest challenge is to achieve and demonstrate a greater impact of fta studies. Otherwise the views of the possible futures that await us may continue to go largely unheard and unheeded
we need to anticipate the big challenges we are going to face. Decision-makers need a global vision of the future that addresses financial structures, climate change, poverty, etc''.
'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,
Hence a major challenge for the next generation of FTA is to shift the emphasis of training from capacity building in performing FTA
The greatest challenges may be in developing mechanisms to reach out to the other communities professionally engaged with the future
field and the major challenges it faces. The context is favourable. Recent crises and the threat of major longer-term changes are fostering a view that business as usual approaches are not capable of addressing these challenges.
There is a widespread recognition of the need to introduce into the processes of government and corporate decision-making a much stronger orientation,
http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/prog day1. html. 4 F. Scapolo, E. Cahill, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis, in:
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, 2004, European communities Technical Report EUR 21473 EN. 5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis:
and challenges that this entails, indicating paths for future research. To sum up, the articles in this special issue demonstrate a variety of FTA application fields
His professional challenge is connecting science and policy. On a broad range of regional and EU projects, involving foresight and integrated assessment,
At the same time, the transport system is confronted with many challenges that reduce economic vitality and quality of life such as climate change, the emission of pollutants and noises, accidents, congestion;
-105. von Schomberg, R. 2005),‘The precautionary principle and its normative challenges'',in Fisher, E.,Jones, J. and von Schomberg, R. Eds), The Precautionary principle and Public policy Decision making, Edward
Nantero has taken up this challenge since 2000. Subsequent results in basic research as well as from Nantero have reinforced the expectations.
and tools to meet the coming challenges. Second, the social debate inherent to urban planning and the need for stakeholder collaboration can be facilitated through a mutually beneficial symbiosis between futures studies and urban planning (Cole, 2001.
because it is a key challenge for contemporary societies, and also because it may induce disruptive transformations in the urban planning value chain.
The big challenge is to satisfy multiple and diverse social demands without putting the sustainability principles at risk.
Suggested strategies for Scenario A. The green paradigm scenario offers a favourable context to successfully tackle the major challenges such as fighting climate change
In brief, Spain faces a major challenge to change social and cultural behaviour towards sustainable development. Overcoming this challenge will mean undertaking significant changes in day-to-day habits,
as well as in governance and business models. The second set of findings shows the advisability of reinforcing foresight tools to make them more attractive and reliable for urban planners.
and challenges that this entails, indicating paths for future research. Originality/value Future-oriented legal studies are rare and,
‘‘What do you see as the most significant challenges for the development of the law within your track (and/or in relation to other tracks?
and challenges of using FTA in law. Future research The introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law,
The following section summarises some of the most pressing challenges and problems that the interaction between FTA and Law may bring about,
Another important challenge regarding the application of fta to Law concerns the adequate role and use of automated tools of data processing and mining in law making
(and challenge) of how to keep FTA and Law distinct and separated. An eventual systematic application of fta to Law runs the risk of blurring the boundaries between Science and Law,
and addressing the challenges that Law needs to cope with in terms of research, enforcement and legislative making.
and challenges regarding the application of fta to Law that must be taken into account. As a final note,
but we must be aware of the inherent limitations and challenges. In effect, and this applies also to Law,
For an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with the combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in the field of FTA,
Challenges and Opportunities, Springer, Berlin. Ratcliffe, J. 2008), Intelligence-led Policing, Willan, Cullompton. Saritas, O. 2011),‘Systemic foresight methodology'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.
This poses new challenges for roadmapping methodology in terms of level of aggregation and timeframe. D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Nanotechnology 1. Introduction Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for dclassicalt technology assessment (TA. If TA focuses on the outcomes or impacts of a technology,
It produces knowledge, orientation and procedures to deal with societal challenges in coping with technology. Over the last years, the landscape for Technology assessment has changed significantly.
It is perhaps not ill-founded to state that the treatment of central challenges of the sustainability discussion,
and methodical approaches of technology assessment for sustainability assessments of technology 2. The requirements on sustainability assessments and their consideration in decision-making represent until now unknown degree of methodical challenges even with regard to very ambitious concepts of technology assessment,
In short, the methodical challenge for our program is to develop roadmaps that combine the disaggregation level of a product roadmap with the timeframe and the inherent uncertainties of strategic roadmaps for branches or industries.
Especially this exercise is expected to deliver more knowledgeable and thus reliable perspectives about the interdependences between scientific and technological developments, internal and external challenges and products or applications than many other approaches.
and limitations of applying FTA to cope with the challenges ahead, and at novel FTA APPROACHES to push the frontier of what can be done to better address them.
and tackle societal challenges. First, three contributions explore new avenues of how FTA could be conceived in the future by discussing
and addressing complex challenges. He invites us to think differently about Grand challenges, by zooming in on the issue of unpredictability, in line with Linstone's argument on the limitations of forecasting in times of transition between two eras.
NESTS pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. The authors explore how the 10-step‘Forecasting Innovation Pathways'analytical approach can be systematised through the use of Tech Mining.
and unpredictability Such notions lead several authors to remind us on the role of FTA to challenge persisting premises on extrapolated futures based on past events.
‘the challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down the layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing'.
Grand societal challenges beyond civilization metamorphosis as intentional evolution, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville.
The innovation policy challenge, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/JO
The challenge of ontological unpredictability can thus be formulated in a simple way: How can we predict the number of cattle or the impact of a new technology,
This creates a challenge for formal modelling. In practice, many future-oriented models are based on time-series data.
An example here is the problem of formulating‘grand societal challenges'.'Typically, such societal challenges are based on extrapolations of historical trends
and thus implicitly assume that historically relevant categories remain important also in the future. For example, ageing may become a‘grand challenge
this role for FTA is discussed further in the next section. 3. Characteristics of FTA as an umbrella activity FTA focuses on the need and potential to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.
These are immense challenges in themselves and to the notion of expertise in breadth and depth that facilitates appreciation.
challenges and opportunities and the relevance of knowledge for a particular situation More than future-oriented research Normative combining socio-techno-economic feasibility and scientific possibility to yield desirable outcomes
‘excessive prioritizing may decrease the diversity of options that challenge conventional approaches and dominant designs'.
practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
It therefore decided to use scenarios as its basic methodology for tackling the challenge of investigating the major driving forces
and thereby the emphasis on such challenges (and boundary uncertainty) is quite inferior. Conclusions In this paper
Opportunities and challenges. Academy of Management Journal 50, no. 1: 25 32. Fahey, L, . and R. Randall. 1998.
in order to steer solutions to emerging challenges through an inclusive approach as well as further experimentation and learning, helping
sustainable development is a major challenge. The limited notion of what constituute‘sustainable development'is itself a riddle that any company faces.
Time for the EU to meet global challenges. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European union. http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf (accessed July 2012.
The interrelatedness poses specific challenges for an organisation striving to navigate in this landscape. Navigation calls for at least two kinds of strategic capabilities:
1) the future development options in the context of anticipated and unknown challenges,(2) the past decisions that affect the organisation either explicitly or implicitly,
This workshop was dedicated to identifying opportunities and challenges for service research in the long term; and to link, scale,
opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe
For companies and organisations alike, tackling these kinds of complex challenges, either from the perspective of business or governance, requires integration of competencies over the traditional sectoral boundaries.
would be especially beneficial in tackling these kinds of systemic challenges. In general, it could be stated that RTOS, companies,
btechnology Policy and Assessment Center, Georgia Institute of technology, Atlanta, GA, USA Highly uncertain dynamics of New and Emerging science and Technologies pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools.
'However, the highly uncertain dynamics of NESTS pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. Capturing and exploring multiple potential innovation pathways show considerable promise as a way of informing technology management and research policy.
Such technology opportunitiie analysis (Porter et al. 1994) for NESTS poses notable challenges. FTA increasingly includes science-based technologies
scenario and workshop were conducted independently in consideration of four global or national challenges. The points of the studies are diversified interdisciplinary
and technology to contribute toward addressing global or national challenges. In the Fourth Basic Plan (Government of Japan
which are expected to be the main players for addressing global or national challenges through innovation in the future.
Based on the discussion, four global or national challenges were set as the goals of science, technology and innovation.
B Delphi provides technological perspectives for the challenges; B scenario reveals the social impact of technological development
and the required social conditions toward addressing the challenges; and B workshop provides tangible examples of the challenges on a regional scale as well as the technological and social conditions involved.
The approach is characterized from two aspects: 1. interdisciplinary or diversified discussion; and 2. the mission-oriented or problem-solving approach.
Figure 1 Overview of the 9th Foresight PAGE 8 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 2. 1 Setting global or national challenges The first step of the exercise
the 9th Foresight exercise narrowed down the course of actions, in terms of scientific and technological challenges, into the following four global or national challenges:
and technology from the viewpoint of‘‘what should be done from now on''to resolve global or national challenges,
Twelve groups of experts were set up under the challenges. They set the scenario themes had extensive and interdisciplinary discussions,
and technology that achieve innovation success to resolve challenges in the future. However, investigative studies that are implemented in parallel do not give a comprehensive and panoramic view.
what cooperation and convergence among scientific and technological areas will be required to address four challenges by combining information to draw up the whole picture of future science
Implementation of the studies with loose linkage under common challenges enables combination with consistency. Delphi deals with a variety of areas of science, technology and society,
and technology for addressing the challenges, looking at things holistically. However neither the relationship among events nor the necessary coordination or cooperation among them is mentioned.
On the other hand, scenario gives sufficient discussion on scientific and technological events that make a direct contribution to the challenges,
and technology for realizing innovation for solutions to the challenges. The procedure is shown in Figure 2. 4. Expected innovation 4. 1 Relations between Delphi topics and scenarios On average,
They are regarded as topics that have a closer relationship with solving the challenges. In Figure 3, the Delphi topics for each scenario are classified in decreasing order of score.
and environment on the left side can be regarded as indicating the first group of expected innovation toward resolving the challenges in the future society
and Table I Areas of key importance for the resolution of four challenges ID Key areas Energy,
and contribute to the solution of four challenges directly or indirectly. The result indicates two potentialities:
are expected to have a great effect in solving four challenges. Another focus is Delphi topics in the key areas categorized as‘‘Others''in Table I that is, the topics in Panels 2, 5, 9, 10,11, and 12.
or national challenges goes far beyond the border of research and development in a single discipline, and necessarily involves collaboration across disciplines.
and workshop in consideration of the four global or national challenges. They provided information about scientific and technological possibilities
Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
It is essential to reach a common understanding about current challenges, potential future paths and the necessary steps to move forward based on an overall perspective that integrates individual stakeholders'points-of-view.
and similar strategy processes into research policy making and research infrastructure creation. 2. Lessons from earlier work The challenge of transferring foresight results into strategic planning is well known in a business context.
Cagnin and Loveridge (2011) discuss challenges as well as detailed models and processes. They describe how a business can become more and more receptive to foresight results,
because the motivation and the challenges of those dialogues tie in with those of transferring foresight results,
At the same time, diverging interests, opinions and agendas pose challenges to the new and still crystallizing ideas contained in foresight results.
Thus, a basic common understanding amongst political stakeholders of the topic and its challenges is achieved. Well-structured summaries based on desk research help to prepare the discussion
A key result is transparency of the specific challenges of each unit and of the criteria it uses to assess the value of future outcomes of the strategic dialogue.
These typically last about one to one and a half hours and cover the outside view of the expert on the subject to be examined including an assessment of current challenges and success factors.
Step 6 would be an initial workshop aimed at verifying challenges and assumptions, identifying obstacles and key success factors,
the strategic dialogue has overcome the following challenges: B A heterogeneous set of stakeholders within and outside the BMBF with different agendas, value systems, interests and communication practices has been brought together
and its challenges as well as a joint view of the future with potential paths to move forward successfully.
and involve other relevant stakeholders in a wide-ranging dialogue to deal with societal challenges. From the perspective of research policy makers, strategic dialogues provide the missing link to transfer the results of foresight and similar strategy processes into research policy making.
the concept of‘‘grand challenges''or‘‘grand societal challenges''.''Foresight has long been used for social purposes.
There has not been a clear distinction between the terms‘‘grand challenges''and‘‘grand societal challenges,
''although‘‘societal''has been used in some of the initiatives to emphasise the social scale and impact of the challenges (European commission DG Research,
This article presents some recent experience of how national research and innovation systems use futures to construct responses (such as new investment priorities) to emerging global challenges and opportunities.
some conclusions and implications for research and practice are offered particularly on how foresight addresses the‘‘challenge of grand challenges''in research and innovation systems.
it appears that there is now a new type of narrative of grand (societal) challenges. The shift to a larger frame of reference could be attributed in part to the broader sustainability narrative
The seven challenges identified by the EU's SD strategy are: 1. climate change and clean energy;
and 7. global poverty and sustainable development challenges. Within this general backdrop, there emerged a focus on‘‘grand challenges''and within the European union.
technological and innovation knowledge geared towards large challenges. It calls on European institutions and Member States to focus European research on the major challenges facing our world.
According to the Lund Declaration: European research must focus on the Grand challenges of our time moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches.
The Lund Declaration emphasises importance of problem solving that the‘‘challenges must turn into sustainable solutions in areas such as global warming,
It must tackle the overarching challenge of turning Europe into an eco-efficient economy''.''The Lund Declaration followed the work of an Expert Group Report on the European research area,
and the research areas that will be required to address the challenges and meet the opportunities''(Project Terms of Reference).
I. A further important aspect of this stage was to begin to identify how other countries were responding to global challenges.
timescales 3 Potential disruptive factors trend breakers, accelerators, wild cards 4 Connectivity and contingencies links with other drivers and trends 5 Challenges that this presents
The aim was to synthesise the materials into a collection of 12 (or so) challenges.
The project team devised a way of constructing these challenges and proposed the following approach:
B a challenge has connectivity across two or more drivers or themes at the global level;
B the challenge has a clear Irish national context; and B the challenge has potential for a set of research implications or the potential for applications of research results.
The following structure was used to link the national context, the global drivers and the challenges:
Ireland has/is/needs (national context) but is challenged by/with/to (global drivers). How can Ireland/Can Ireland (the challenge?
3. 3. 4 Phase 4: Final catalogue. The final stage of the project consisted of the production of the final catalogue of drivers and trends.
2 What are the challenges for Ireland that you expect these drivers to raise in the next 10-15 years?
With what impacts and challenges? 3 What are the implications, if any, of these drivers for Ireland's research needs and opportunities?
and a series of potential research implications added particularly responding to challenges and opportunities presented by the global drivers.
''PAGE 34 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 4. 3 An emerging set of grand challenges for Ireland research needs and implications A set of 12 challenges was provided for consideration
4. The two examples provided in Table V illustrate the breadth of potential research implications that could emerge from the challenges.
within several challenges there was also a clear role for social sciences and humanities. For example, with the recent economic difficulties in Ireland clearly vexing participants in the exercise
the challenge of developing a more resilient societal system was identified, with potential implications around social research on resilience,
middle classes Uncertain results for banking regulation A challenge to liberal democracy models Conflict follows geopolitical shifts Terrorism continues to pose a threat to security A multi-polar governance system Religion
Table V Challenges identified with their potential research implications Examples of challenges identified Potential research implications Energy Ireland is dependent on external sources of energy supplies at present
while renewable energy makes an impact on energy supply The challenge for Ireland is to achieve greater energy security
Some of the challenges constructed through the methodology are aligned well with the larger themes discussed within Europe during recent years.
Challenge: Ireland‘‘punches above its weight''in international arenas achieving a strong reputation as an independent country with good governance and respect for its global commitments and partnerships.
For these challenges, it was difficult to conceive of strategic responses based on research and innovation. Even where there is a consensus on grand challenges,
Second, Ireland was suggested as a smart, innovative test-bed for new approaches for dealing with global challenges due to its small size and advantages of proximity.
particularly in terms of the challenges and opportunities that they presented. During the course of the exercise, the appointed research and consulting team was asked to translate the knowledge generated (global drivers and trends and their national implications) into a set of grand challenges for Ireland.
The challenges may be easier to determine than the research and innovation responses: although problems or challenges can be contested,
there is a relatively strong consensus on the definition of several of them especially energy, climate change, demographics, etc.
Identifying the challenge is a first step. The second step is to ascertain what, if any, might be an appropriate response in terms of the research and innovation system.
The marginalisation of Ireland (as a small country) within multilateral frameworks was identified as a challenge by participants in the exercise.
This is not a conventional innovation problem yet was regarded still as a national challenge in its broadest sense.
How‘‘grand''and‘‘societal''should the challenges be? It is not easy to ascertain clear differences between‘‘grand challenges
''and‘‘grand societal challenges''at least in the way the terms have been used to date in the EU. In The irish case,
the challenges varied in scale and impact, where some appeared to be narrower and more specific for the national RTDI system.
's Grand Societal Challenges'',Report of the ETP Expert Group, European commission, Brussels. European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006), Review of the European union Sustainable development Strategy Renewed Strategy, available at:
Georghiou, L.,Cassingena-Harper, J. and Scapolo, F. 2011),‘From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 229-31.
Ko nno la A t.,Scapolo, F.,Desruellec, P. and Mu, R. 2011),‘Foresight tackling societal challenges:
and to respond to these challenges, is by radically increasing innovation activities in the natural resources sector.
The innovation priorities until 2025 for the development of the Russian natural resources sector was developed on the basis of identification of the most important problems and challenges regarding the natural resources sector's management system and necessary conditions for S&t development.
& future technology of Korea-challenges and opportunities (Korea 2030) China's Report of Technology foresight 2004 Report year 2005 2005 2004 Project promoter/initiator Ministry of Education
This technology linkage reflects that the challenges faced by China, i e. the environmental issues caused by the mass use of conventional energy such as coal,
and grand societal challenges, in particular, it is important to understand the very nature of change.
Current and future economic, environmental and societal challenges, as well as their combination emerge from such transformations
such challenges concern the whole or large parts of societies and require multidisciplinary and collective action.
In that sense dealing with grand challenges introduces new conceptual, methodological and operational challenges for FTA. Energy, climate change, natural resources, food, water,
The challenge for FTA lies in the fact that the unstructured nature of grand challenges may not fit with the existing thematic structures of decision-making.
(i) identify challenges;(ii) align actors around the challenge;(iii) discuss expected and unexpected consequences of challenges;
and (iv) anticipate and address transformations in response to them. 5. Joint responses to grand challenges There is a need for transitions in many realms,
which require crosscutting analysis and intervention across policy domains 11,12. It is even more so when one tries to tackle the so-called grand challenges.
since societal challenges and complex interrelated systems require a more holistic and systemic understanding of situations.
either for future innovative governance or for using nanotechnology for disruptive innovation in order to address grand societal challenges.
when policy-makers need to know about new and unforeseen challenges that could disrupt their activities.
Manag. 24 (8)( 2012) 753 767.3 L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, Rising to the challenges Reflections on Future-oriented technology analysis, Technol.
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, EUR 24364 EN, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.
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