A method that makes use of visualisation techniques is the application of strategic design in addressing societal challenges.
However, it has been applied by the Finnish innovation Fund to develop holistic understanding of a challenge with issues related to ageing, education,
Second, when FTA and especially foresight is addressing the intrinsically uncertain challenge of devising possible futures,
E. Cahill, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis: proceedings of the EU US scientific seminar:
The Challenges and Benefits of Integrating Diverse Paradigms, Jossey-Bass, San francisco, 1997.11 P. Goodwin, Why hindsight can damage foresight, Int. J. Appl.
FTA and Grand Societal Challenges Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic transformations, 2011, Available at: http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/FTA2011 CALL FINAL. pdf. Accessed August 2012.19 H. Van Lente,
Papers in Memory of Everett C. Hughes, Aldine, Chicago, 1968.66 L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, Rising to the challenges Reflections on Future-oriented technology analysis, Technol.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 2 H. X. G. Ming, W. F. Lu, C. F. Zhu, Technology challenges
for product lifecycle management, Technical Report, STR/04/058/SP, Singapore Institute of Manufacturing Technology, 2004.3 T. A. Vijay, Challenges in product strategy
and the transition toward a more sustainable energy generation system is a grand societal challenge. This study shows how EMA
Another important challenge inmany FTA projects is supporting amulti-actor process. Different perspectives, differentworldviews or different mental models of various stakeholders are usually the norm in FTA projects
It thus explicitly addresses one of the FTA challenges identified by Porter et al. 1 by assessing how EMA could contribute to adaptive foresight 10 under deep uncertainty.
the challenges associated with decision-making under deep uncertainty can largely be overcome. Instead of trying to predict,
Each of the cases is related to important societal challenges. The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all societies.
Potential mineral/metal scarcity poses a serious challenge for civil protection in at least three ways 17,18: 1. Many crucial minerals
adaptability and ability to shape responses to challenges and transformations. A central issue in many FTA projects is how to cope with a multiplicity of worldviews and values,
At a strategic level, the European union took up this challenge via the Innovation Union Flagship Initiative as part of the Europe 2020 strategy launched in 2010.
Therefore innovation research needs increasingly be oriented towards the challenges presented by environmental complexity and socioeconomic turbulence 25.
It is a key challenge to benefit from this rich and complex audience. Also from this‘empowerment'perspective we suggest some areas of improvement.
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, EUR 24364 EN, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.
Proceedings of the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), FTA for Structural and Systemic transformations in Response to Grand Societal Challenges:
Pract. 3 (2001) 311 337.15 OECD, Fostering innovation to address social challenges, in: Workshop Proceedings, OECD, Paris, 2011.16 EC, Innovation Union Competitiveness Report 2011.
Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 64 A. Geyer, F. Scapolo, European manufacturing in transition the challenge of sustainable development:
OECD (Ed.),Fostering Innovation to Address Social challenges, Workshop Proceedings, OECD, Paris, 2011, pp. 59 64.80 M. Godet, The art of scenarios and strategic planning:
His professional challenge is connecting science and policy. On a broad range of regional and EU projects, involving foresight and integrated assessment,
the question also includes how to use these technologies to tackle societal challenges and to contribute to environmental sustainability 3, cf. 4. In both rationales,
such as the late consideration of societal challenges, there are also differences in governance structures. In Germany, disparate sources of knowledge were pooled not
either for future innovative governance or for using nanotechnology for disruptive innovation to address grand societal challenges.
The updated nanotechnology vision in the US 3 is envisioning the involvement of a broader range of experts and stakeholders and addresses societal challenges through a sophisticated concept of future nanotechnology governance.
E. Commission (Ed.),From Challenges to Opportunities: Towards a Common Strategic Framework for EU. COM (2011) 48, Green Paper, European commission, Brussels, 2011.5 NSTC, National science and Technology Council, IWGN, E. A t.,The Interagency
Increasingly, innovation policy strategies such as the European commission's Innovation Union flagship initiative 3 are addressing socioeconomic challenges such as sustainability, health, and security.
in order to address societal challenges. This requires consideration of social and ecological aspects throughout the entire innovation process.
The key challenge encountered was the widening of filters to discern signals beyond the obvious.
Mapping and interpretation of weak signals is still in its infancy and thus an important challenge for further studies 31.
, B. Sanders, In and out of sync, The Challenge of Growing Social innovations, NESTA Research report, 2007.14 H. W. Chesbrough, Open innovation:
Rising to the challenges Reflections on Future-oriented technology analysis Luke Georghiou a,, Jennifer Cassingena Harper b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK b Malta Council for Science and Technology, Kalkara, Malta
and a focus on grand societal challenges. By their nature boundary-spanning, these make it less easy to locate FTA institutionally to achieve the necessary crosscutting perspective.
and applied research where the notion of grand or societal challenges has risen to prominence, most noticeably but by no means exclusively at European level where societal challenges such as health, energy and food security, transport, climate and resources and innovative and secure societies became first a part of the ERA debate 10 and subsequently a central
plank of the new core programme Horizon 2020 11. The tendency is also visible in the United states where the White house Office of Science
A further dimension of complexity is that few challenges are bounded nationally, so that serious attempts to address them need to be transnational or in some cases global.
or regionally and so is handicapped potentially in dealing with the transnational nature of the challenges. To the extent that FTA is situated in specific domains it is again at risk of achieving only a partial view.
or sector 13 but equally the need could be for tailoring to the circumstances of the grand challenge.
Three functions could be distinguished identification of a challenge, articulation of a challenge that has already been identified at a general level
and helping to achieve what is called variously orchestration or alignment of actors around the challenge.
Of the three the most difficult is likely to be identification of new challenges. In the taxonomy of transformations emerging at the conference 14, the distinction made by a European Science Foundation working group between recognised
and disruptive challenges highlights the problem. The lists given above for EU and US research policies consist entirely of well-recognised challenges in
which FTA work would be focused on articulation and orchestration. However policymakers would really like to know about new and unforeseen challenges that could disrupt their activities.
The instability following the financial crisis which was foreseen by a few but where little attention was paid to warnings has intensified this desire.
and you choose your challenges. There is also the possibility that some transformations may be catastrophic in the sense of occurring suddenly
Challenges are not soluble in a single way or at a single point in time and hence variety of approach remains beneficial Alignment is a more realistic objective.
The interdisciplinary nature of challenge-oriented results is difficult for traditional governance structures to absorb.
Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US
Manage. 20 (3)( 2008) 267 269.6 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, F. Scapolo, From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis, Futures 43 (3
The 2011 conference focused on an important topic, the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.
Or was FTA revealing the incompatibility of the theory and practice of efforts that deal with closed versus open challenges?
With this challenge in mind we believe that the papers in this Special issue, offer some clues both negative and positive regarding the ways to build shared discourses that cover theory and practice.
Almost all the articles in the Special issue take on this challenge the rationale for matching particular tools to particular tasks.
We are aware that research on the theoretical foundations of FTA poses challenges which are not only of academic nature.
This fact challenges Keenan and Popper's factors for explaining variations and similarities in regional foresight data.
The aim was to meet this challenge by developing a vision and a strategy for transforming Denmark into a leading growth, knowledge and entrepreneurial society.
The proposals should be oriented to challenges or opportunities, be broad enough to ensure effective competition among Danish research environments in the call for proposals for strategic research funding,
and should play a central role in meeting the thematic challenge or should be useful in other ways.
Mapping OECD horizontal scanning Public hearing among all interested citizens Input from ministries 125 trends and challenges 432 suggestions 90 suggestions In principle, everybody interested in strategic research 2:
2 T. Ko nno la, F. Scapolo, P. Desruelle, R. Mu, Foresight tackling societal challenges:
Forth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic transformations SEVILLE, 12 13,may 2011. 7 J. Irvine, B
which in turn implies that foresight exercises can lead to the reconfiguration of a policy system and increase its ability to meet major challenges.
another challenge is to know which information sources they should use to develop the scenarios themselves.
In the local cases, policy-makers concluded that one of the key challenges with respect to organisational embedding is to find appropriate operational models
According to policy-makers, the challenge is to present and communicate a foresight study in such a way that it is recognisable for politicians
An important challenge has to do with connecting the outcomes of futures research to decision-making processes. Da Costa et al. 25 also conclude that foresight results can only be taken on board by policy-makers
(CGEE), Brasi'lia, Brazil c Impetu Solutions, Madrid, Spain 1. Introduction Mounting effective responses to many major societal challenges usually requires coordinated efforts
Here one of the major challenges is embed to the global foresight exercise in different local regional and national systems as well as within international sectoral networks and institutions.
and roadmapping process shed light on some of the challenges that arise when organising global foresight exercises. Table 1 summarises the main lessons learned using four principles that need to be taken into consideration when designing and managing an international foresight exercise.
in order to prepare for the identified challenges. This approach was key to designing a questionnaire able to elicit the innovative ideas that participants thought critical for IMS both globally and locally.
It highlighted some of the challenges in organising global foresight exercises. For instance, the scalable design was crucial for adapting to geographical dispersion and the large number of participants.
time for the EU to meet global challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.2 L. Y. Tang, Q. Shen, Factors affecting effectiveness and efficiency of analysing stakeholders
The second paper by Brummer et al. addresses the challenges of organising future-oriented consultation processes that are promoted at the international level and, in the precise case by the European commission,
Essentially, these are challenges for strategic technology intelligence and forward-looking tools. This is especially the case for implementations around Emerging s&t fields.
and challenges are prodding European universities to undergo a series of reforms to position themselves as relevant players in the knowledge society.
The challenge remains to have FTA ACTIVITIES more closely integrated within the policy-making process. However, influencing policy-making
what Cagnin et al. 6 refer to as‘Grand Societal Challenges'.'In particular, there is a growing recognition of the user as‘innovator'and key stakeholder, especially in the early phases of scientific and technological research,
Therefore, lowering this uncertainty is an important challenge, which firms try to tackle by means of e g.,
These include the recognition of challenges facing innovation including the increasing complexity and uncertainty which result in failing innovations;
Challenges of user involvement in future technology analysis, Science and Public policy 37 (2010) 51 61.20 C. Lettl, User involvement competence for radical innovation, Journal of Engineering and Technology management
and practitioners to tackle this challenge. Several tools have been developed that foster alignment between strategy and actions
we argue that embedding FTA in the system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
challenges and policies are formulated, and how these resonate across its value chain. The first phase (organisational strategy) consists in supporting the definition of the strategic positioning of a firm within its environment.
and manage emerging challenges. It does so by providing spaces where actors can come together to shape equally likely paths into the future through a collective articulation of visions
and solutions to challenges (thus supporting phase 1) as well as learn with one another (thus supporting phases 3 and 4). Enabling spaces like this through foresight embedded within the proposed system to formalise this collective process of mutual learning and experimentation would enable increased communication across the value chain.
embedding FTA within the proposed system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
Finally, embedding FTA within the system proposed shall enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010, http://dx. doi. org/10.2791/4223eur 24364 EN, ISSN 1018
including the challenges resulting from the above listed trends 38.2.2.2. Futures research and open innovation Futures research aims at systematically exploring
‘‘To inspire, to challenge, to do''and‘‘Long-term thinking, short-term action''.''3 After having been carried out within various departments in RWS itself,
and reposition of innovation portfolio Provide strategic guidance Identify new business models Consolidate opinions Vision creation Opponent role Challenge basic assumptions Scan for disruptions that could endanger current
and exploit new topics and challenges successfully (efficiency) and (3) stakeholder management. Effectiveness and efficiency are addressed by several activities in the network:
the re-integration of information (outside-in) into the organization is apparently quite a challenge. In Table 5 the foresight activities are summarized briefly
Rijkswaterstaat was interested primarily in innovations that addressed societal challenges while companies inherently seek to satisfy shareholders,
which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and decision-making. HE RECENT ONSET OF CRISES AND challenges ranging from climate change, finanncia and economic downturns,
to security threats highlight a rising need to incorporate more forward-looking approaches into the decisionmakkin processes of public and private organisations and stakeholders all around the world.
forecasting and technology assessment to reflect on these challenges. The third conference focused on the impact that FTA can have on policy and decisiionmaking and its implications.
This renders decisiionmaking smarter and more capable of tackling expected future challenges. Although the applicatiion described in the papers are very different,
addressing the Cassandra challenge. Futures (in press. Keenan, R and R Popper (eds. 2007. Guide to Research Infrastruccture Foresight.
and connects this to emerging challenges. An increasing number of countries in Europe are considering undertaking horiizo scanning activities in the near future like Malta, Norway,
and research programming on strategic challenges and questions within these issue clusters. Preparing further cooperation
emerging challenges for society, but also for promising opportunities, some of which may originate in new or Emerging s&t findings and insights.
2006) instrumeen that deliberately challenge policy-makers to look at the uncertainties and the unexpected and deveelo resilient policies towards sustainability.
challenges and optioons to provide the basis for resilient and (where appropriate) cross-departmental policies.
which adapted the issue descriptions to the Danish situation after Horizon scanning can be seen as an adaptive foresight instrument that deliberately challenges policy-makers to look at uncertainties
which is acknowledged in the research 2015 document (Daniis Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, 2008) that sets the stage for research prioritisation in Denmark for the coming four years in a clear relationnshi to the challenges facing
Cooperation The use of joint scan data at the European level could offer a useful way of addressing the complex challenges the world
The challenges for local governance in 2015. Available from<http://www. communities. gov. uk/pub/326/Allourfuturestechni calannexandappendices id1165326. pdf>,last accessed 1 Octoobe 2008.
What Broad Security Challenges May Canada Face by 2015? Technology foresight directorate of the office of the national science advisor.
The project succeeded in defining scenarios for the creative content industries, offering distinct trajectories and raising different policy challenges.
Established FTA approaache tend to struggle with the double challenge of exploring future trajectories of extremely fastchanngin areas like creative content
but also to provide novel and concrete recommendations on how to deal with the upcoming challenges.
Delineation of the creative content sector The first challenge encountered when dealing with creative content industries is their diversity.
However, in spite of the diversity of the various creative content sub-sectors, the convergence of digital content and media has given already way to a growing convergence of future issues in these subsecttors Many of the challenges
There are also cultural challenges implying that content is not a product like any other but also a cultural good and an expression of diversiit in Europe.
While all the steps leading to the policy analysis revealed important findings on potential directions of change and consequently possible challenges for policy-making,
Challenges for policy-making The challenge for policy-makers and regulators is to help create an enviroonmen
Awarenees of the issues and challenges raised subsequently will be decisive for fulfilling this task. The policy issues that have been identified incllud fostering ICT and creative skills:
and the challenge that loosening them could pose for prevailing business models, while opening up opportunities for small enterprises and amateurs to develop innovative products and services.
and scoped to connect to emerging poliic challenges. A review of the literature reveals much in the way of foresight methodology
and quality of social interactions Aid and help elaborate discussions of the future Facilitate thinking out of the box, challenge mindsets Creation of new networks and clusters of expertise,
and their changes to system actors Development of significant new ways of thinking about challenges and opportunities Promote collective learning through open exchanges of information
What were the challenges? Were you copying other national efforts? To whom did your country look to
or an ongoiin challenge and that indicated progress was made beiin. Public private partnerships: Most program expeert extolled the good relationships they had developed with industry leaders,
incluudin both its challenges and opportunities, can be appreciated. All of the agencies contacted realiize how critical this aspect of forward readinees has become.
structures and processses The key requirement seems to be creating the close linkages with policy-makers that in turn appear to be mainly dependent upon their sensitivity to futuur challenges,
survival and the dynamics of managing regime transitions that remain a continuing challenge to foresight advocates
Within the scope of existing and new technollog development to combat EID, the study proviide evidence of how the FTA can address societal issues and challenges,
Challenges and necessary collaborations are shown also with respect to the short-,medium, -and longteer time horizons. Diagnosis of infectious diseases is done usually by detecting causative agents (virus, bacterium, etc.
and personal diagnostic technologies in the community without adverse implications Education and communication to public (so that public understands the significance of EID control) Challenges:
Challenges of user involvement in future technology analysis Katrien De Moor, Katrien Berte, Lieven De Marez, Wout Joseph, Tom Deryckere and Luc Martens The shift
two challenges are discussed that are crucial to true user-driven innovation, i e. the challenge of continuously involving the user
and the need for tools to facilitate the integration of knowledge into the increasingly interdisciplinary development process.
we illustrate how the two challenges can be tackled. HE INDUSTRY THAT DEVELOPS informattio and communication technologies (ICT) has been challenged in various ways over the last few decades.
we then identify two imporrtan challenges for scholars and practitioners from a user-driven innovation perspective.
to illustrate how the two challenges can be tackled. Finally, we summarriz our findings and identify some opportunities for further research in this field.
However, this shift towards user-driven innovatiio also brings problems and challenges, such as the issue of the continuous involvement of users and the discrepancy between theory and practice in this respeect Although the user-driven innovation paradigm advocates an open perspective
176) This challenge requires a consolidation of knowleddg and tools from various disciplines (e g. foresigght design,
The following section discusses two of these challenges, which were underlying the objectives of the ROMAS project.
Integration challenges Challenge 1: Continuous and adequate interaction with the user The first challenge concerns the need for the continnuou and adequate involvement of the user.
Severra scholars have focused on the fact that there are still only a few companies that effectively involve the customer or user in the innovation process (Alam, 2002;
and technology The second challenge concerns the problem of integraatin the knowledge being gathered by multidiscipliinar teams,
the adequate translation and transformation of user insights and requirements into more technical requirements (and vice versa), is still a challenge.
its adequate measureemen and translation remains a challenge: insigght into users'experiences and expectations (e g. in a particular context or for a certain application) are shared often not in an interdisciplinary developmeen team.
The next section illustrates how both challenges were tackled in the interdisciplinary ROMAS projeect The results are structured into three main reseaarc stages.
In order to illustrate how the abovementioned integrratio challenges were tackled in ROMAS, we zoom in on distinct moments of user involvement during the three stages (see Figure 1),
One of the major challenges at this stage was not only to successfully involve users in this early part of the process,
and the way the abovementioned challenges were tackled. We now briefly turn to the five stages. 1. Pre-usage user research to detect relevant Qoe elements and user expectations.
two crucial challenges were identified: the need for continnuou interaction with the user and the need for mechanisms to integrate the knowledge that is gatherre in the increasingly multidisciplinary developmeen process.
in order to illustrate how both challenges can be tackled. Drawiin on results selected from three distinct points of user involvement in the process of developing new products (i e. opportunity identification, concept evaluation and test market),
The challenge of user-and Qoe-centric research and product development in today's ICT environment.
, systems, rules and practices in response to grand societal challenges. This introductory paper provides an overview of selected conference contributions and the perspectives in
which they address key issues in the development and implementation of FTA in relation to these challenges.
The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) entitled‘‘FTA and Grand Societal Challenges: Shaping and Driving Structural and Systematic Transformations organised by the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre (JRC-IPTS) was held in May 2011.
This edition of the conference focussed on the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in global and national structures, systems, rules and practices in response to grand societal challenges.
Current and future societal challenges as well as their combination emerge from such transformations and call for appropriate forms of FTA to support
and innovattio system towards major societal challenges, with greater integration of FTA;.the development and implementation of new approaches to FTA, particularly the application of horizon scanning;.
and increasinngl transnational, research and innovation systems can be seen to offer the most effective approach to meeting crosscutting societal challenges.
and also the challenges posed to foresight design and management. They elaborate three central guiding foresight principles:
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'(Boden et al. 2010) to illustrate how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,
Cuhls, Bunkowski and Behlau provide a case study of the Fraunhofer Institutes'action-oriented foresight process of using global challenges to identify and implemeen research themes for future markets.
In 2010, global challenges were identified, analysed, restructured and selected according to potential Fraunhofer contributions and market potential.
and develop interdisciplinary research projects to tackle these challenges. Collaboration and interdisciplinary problemsollvin approaches are fostered as project consortia have to consist of at least four institutes, preferably with diverging technological competences.
and wicked, challenges. The contributions to this special issue, as well as to the FTA conference more generally, clearly demonstrate there is a growing volume of valuable and appropriable experiennc in the development and application of fta, in terms of both the process and methods and the organisational context in
The emergence of the communication capacities of social networking technologies is itself providing a challenge to existing systems,
but as necessary evolutions to keep pace with wicked problems and challenges. There is also an obvious need to adapt to
The challenge for STI policy therefore, would appear to be:.acknowledgement of the deep inadequacies of vertically structured systems and processes,
Time for the EU to meet global challenges',24364 EN, 6/2010. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European commission.
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy Claudio Chauke Nehme1, 2,,
chauke@cgee. org. br This paper addresses the challenges of communicating the results of a strategic foresight exercise
new perspectives and opportunity maps present themselves to a corporation through identifying its challenges and strengths (Coates, cited by Miles et al. 2008).
Again, this is another challenge, as different stakeholders usually have divergent perspectives for defining the best route towards the desired future.
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 247. The culture of looking ahead, having the past as an important reference..
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 249 The foresight exercise itself comprises three distinct phases:
the challenge of engaging clients and stakeholders in the main and commitmeen phases depends on the ability of the coordination team to link the participating stakeholders to the technical and scientific communities and vice versa.
considering existing challenges to Brazilian energy matrix in next 20 years Technologies for generation of electric energy, fuel supply and energy transmission and distribution, distributed generaatio and storage, planning
challenges and opportunities for biotechnollog in Brazil, with particcula focus on research and commercialization of geneticaall modified organisms (GMOS).
and nanotechnologies in selected countries Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 251 supporting basic and applied research;
In the case of FINEP, the challenge of promoting out-of-the-box thinking was very complex.
The major challenge in the development of prospective studies is to identify which events or change drivers are actually relevant
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 255 6. Lessons learned and main conclusions The items briefly discussed here summarize the main lesson learned,
and be prepared better to face the challenges ahead..The establishment of a foresight culture within organizattion or industries,
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 257
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