between institutional inertia and rapid changes'Paper prepared for the workshop on Innovation Paradigm: The Impact of Economic Ideas on RTD Policies, 4s/EASST Conference 2000, held 27 30 september 2000, Vienna.
and explore the changes in the relationships between these components over time. Since national institutions,
We especially focus on the components of each NSTIS and the changes in their interactions over time.
should be regarded as an important milestone in the change of policies. Before 1982, the main purpose of policies was to encourage
Chang, M.-Y. 2004) The Change of Taiwan's Agricultural Community(.Taipei: Council of Agriculture.
Globalization, Change and Policy in Asia and Europe. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Freeman, C. 1987) Technology policy and Economic Performance:
the evolution of technological systems in renewable energy technology',Industrial and Corporate Change, 13: 815 49.
a lot of unlearning and disruption of existing linkages will be required as part of the processes of transformative change..
This makes them an essential starting point in efforts to set in motion virtuous cycles of transformative change directed at grand challenges.
They require broader changes in human perceptions and behaviour, as well as social innovations promoting non-technological solutions.
Specifically, the structural elements particularly the institutioonspoint to mechanisms for enacting change through intervention while the functions signpost the sorts of issues that must be addressed
Changes in soft institutions are likely to be particularly critical in determining progress in finding viable paths towards tackling grand challenges and any consequent change in paradigms that these may entail.
for example, requires not only surpassing long-established vested interests in certain resources but also a change in the behaviour, norms and values of societies.
Other changes required in soft institutions concern the motivations and focus of business actors in engaging with innovation,
This change is reflected in terms such as: corporate social responsibility, corporate citizenship, or stakeholder theory, in which business organisations increasingly promote innovation in their social and environmental policies (Smith 2000).
and changes in paradigms is needed. At the same time FTA PROCESSES place a special emphasis on novelty, creativity and multi-disciplinarity in knowledge development,
and emerging drivers of change Identify New s&t, business, societal, policy and political opportunities Increase awareness of possible risks,
and attractive places for investment Enhance responsiveness of organisations by supporting change in individuals'behaviour
and resources for enacting transformative change. A different type of innovation policy is required essentially that better acknowledges the co-evolutionary, multidimensional,
complex and multi-actor nature of the processes involved in enabling transformative change. In this context, this paper has introduced some of the contributions that FTA could make to orienting innovattio systems towards grand challenges.
Finally, the ability to conduct and/or utilise FTA is itself a valuable dynamic capability that encourages organisations to be more responsive, adaptabble and open to change.
A new approach for analysing technological change',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 74: 413 32. IDEA Consult. 2010)‘ The impact of European policy on the development of the ERA in the areas relevant to environmennt'Draft Final Report.
institutionalisation. 1. Introduction Increasingly dynamic processes of change and sudden disrupptiv developments are becoming the norm rather than the exception.
The drivers of these changes may range from rapid technological changes to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
the individual capabilities and mindsets to anticipate change in fast-changing environments;.the institutional and organisational setup of FTA;.
In this section, a typology of transformations is developed to distinguish between different forms and sources of change in the system.
Thirdly, two types of transformation can come into effect by design where change processes are planned and implemented, for example economic structural transformation or social change.
interacttiv chain of changes ranging from technological, natural, economic and political to social (pervasive and quick to diffuse with longer term effects emerging over time)
transformaation may emerge through proactive coordination that may lead to changes in competition and integration modes of governance.
in terms of their ability to tackle different types of transformative changes (see Table 2). The first dimension captures four types of transformations,
First, the traditional and best established forms of FTA focus on the anticipation of rather gradual change that may require adjustments of how innovation systems are wired up'and what thematic,
is a change in both governance and organisational models. A much higher degree of policy coordination seems to be needed to address societal challennge as well as a much more continuous and‘embedded'approach to FTA.
we want to explore the direction in which FTA is likely to evolve in the future. 3. 1 Emerging developments in FTA systems This section looks at how emerging developments in FTA deal with challenges of transformative change,
Anticipate gradual changes and support deliberate policies for transitions.‘‘Wiring up the innovation system'.'Stimulating national and regional economic development through innovation.
calling for a change in organisational culture. Networks of FTA practice generate a range of positive impacts particularly in engaging external, often internatioonal experts in FTA.
and in particular policy strategies Various governance modes are addressed in examination of instituutiona change for uptake of foresight results in design of systemic innovation policy Discusses how the findings of foresight project are embedded in institutional structures and policy design 160.
and this trend is likely to continue as part of a comprehensive package of elements for dealing with transformative change,
and to opt more for developing in-house competencies for coping with sudden change. A shift towards institutionalisation of FTA could be observed,
and allowing more customised responses to disruptive and transformatiiv changes. The question that arises from these observations on the possible future evolution of FTA is
when and how such changes will occur due to higher complexity, FTA can produce a better understanding of the overall landscape.
and companies tend to deal with changes in a reactive rather than a proacttiv mode.
Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.
Cachia, R.,Compan o, R. and Da Costa, O. 2007)‘ Grasping the potential of online social networks for foresight',Technological forecasting & Social Change, 74: 1179 203.
Calof, J. 2012)‘ Towards developing an instrument to evaluate Future technology Analysis A Canadian case study',Technological forecasting and Social Change (forthcoming.
ecosysste change; oceans; space research; and solar-terrestrial physics. ICSU also sets up committees to address particulla issues
While there is no guarantte that patterns of change will be similar in scope and scale over the coming two decades as they were in the previous
while highlightiin the fact that some changes are difficult to predict..Duration: Given available resources and the scope of the exercise, it was thought at the outset that the exercise would take about 12 8 months to complete from start to finish.
however, by delays due to changes in key staff. As a consequence, the results generated in the later stages of the project (essentially the visionary success scenario) have shaped perhaps not ICSU's new strategic plan to the degree that was planned originally
this includes changes in global population size, spatial and age distribution, urban-to-rural balance..
from oceans to ecosysteem to the cryosphere and atmosphere, the forecasts are consistent in suggesting broad changes with major impacts on society over the coming two decades..
Such changes could have impacts on the approaches to science and the balance between national-scale versus international-scale science.
The places where science research will take place may change. Universities are presently key players but consortia of researchers,
The last decade has seen significant changes in the nature of the scientific record. The move to open-access publishing is likely to have a number of impacts, in particular,
The pattern of nationally based organisations training students could change. The very nature of what students learn,
The nature of the‘scientific career'could change. This could be impacted on by changes to the epistemic organisation of science, the science education process and special organisation and conduct of science.
The traditional models of academic careers and ways of evaluating scientists may change in the light of changes to any of the above drivers.
Box 1. Key drivers of change affecting international science cooperation. 172. M. Keenan et al. drivers in an earlier step were mapped now into the four scenario spaces to create coherent storylines.
for delineating research directions, for contributing to the construction of advocacy coalitions in support of desirable change,
and for improving organisatioona agility vis-a vis future unpredictable change (Miles et al. 2008). These are all qualities that that can benefit international science cooperation as it seeks to address many of the grand challenges of our time.
Facilitating policy implementation (widening the change capacities in a certain policy community..Embedding participation in policy-making..
Changes at the landscape level create pressure on the regime..Destabilization of the regime creates windows of opportunity for niche innovations (Geels 2002,2005;
In IPRM, the second level of policies, policy instruments and regulatory changes is critical. IPRM endorses the positioning of the policy practices in a dynamic socio-technical context,
Present Medium term Long term Present stage Change 2 Change 3 Change 4 Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Present stage Change 2
Change 3 Change 4 Present stage Change 2 Change 3 Change 4 Technology roadmap 1 Policies:
instruments and regulatory changes Sectoral development: new solutions, convergence, disruptions Key enablers: opportunities based on emerging technologies Technology roadmap 2 Technology roadmap n Figure 1. Generic structure of systemic transformation roadmap. 182.
instruments and regulatory changes Sectoral development: new solutions, convergence, disruptions Enabling technologies Energy-efficiency requirements, energy price and availability;
instruments and regulatory changes Sectoral development: solutions, convergence, disruptions Key enablers Technology roadmap 2: Extending natural resources Technology roadmap 3:
In addition, diffusion of innovations often depends on changes in infrastructure, information systems, organizational practices and social institutions.
Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory',Research policy, 33: 897 920..(2005)‘ Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations:
Refining the co-evolutionary multilevel perspectivve'Technological forecasting and Social Change, 72: 681 96. Geels, F. W. and Schot, J. 2007)‘ Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways',Research policy, 36: 399 417.
Assessing rationale, process and impact',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 73: 761 77. Heiskanen, E.,Kivisaari, S.,Lovio, R. and Mickwitz, P. 2009)‘ Designed to travel?
Kostoff, R. N.,Boylan, R. and Simons, G r. 2004)‘ Disruptive technology roadmaps',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71: 141 59.
Overall process and detailed modules',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 72: 567 83. Phaal, R. and Muller, G. 2009)‘ An architectural framework for roadmapping:
Towards visual strategy',Technological forecasting & Social Change, 76:39 49. Phaal, R.,Farrukh, C. J. P. and Probert, D. R. 2004)‘ Technology roadmapping a planning framework for evoluttio and revolution',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71:5 26.
Rotmans, J.,Kemp, R. and Van Asselt, M. 2001)‘ More evoluttio than revolution: Transition management in public policy',Foresight, 3: 15 31.
Process flexibility refers to the ability to make methodologgica changes in how certain results are obtained such as:
thus to make changes in overall design and objectives of the entire project (see Fig. 3). 4. 2 Foresight as an integrator Transnational foresight activities may be seen to claim excesssiv resources
Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.
'Technological forecasting and Social Change, in press. Kaiser, R. and Prange, H. 2004)‘ Managing diversity in a system of multilevel governance:
(or make them aware) for drastic changes and surprises/shocks. Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 208 221 doi:
Early warning signals are the first important indications of a change. These signals are often difficult to spot.
innovation, emerging, issues, impact, change, future, emerging, promising, threatening, solutioons discoveries, problems, crisis, tensions, growth, breakthroughs, breakdowns,
The vast amount of data coming from these sources can be analysed in terms of potential signals of change,
or reveal changes, modifications and disruptions of existing emerging issues in a significant way. Automatic tools are seen as methods to support the scanning for potentially highly important weak signals
This can enable faster and timelier assessments and thus earlier detection of events, changes and possible weak signals.
Overall, micro-blogging is one of the social web tools that could change how science is perceived and how 214.
Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 76: 327 38. Freund, F. 2011)‘ Pre-earthquake signals:
Articulate credible observations about current or imminent changes (either sudden, gradual, or between these poles).
and immediately see the impacts of these changes on the results: indeed, one reason for adopting the RPM approach was that it admits incomplete information about criterion weights
The need to change current ways in which essential natural resources are used..The need to anticipate
and adapt to societal changes..The need for more effective and transparent governannc for the EU and the world.
Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.
Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 74: 608 26.230. T. Ko nno la et al.
Implications for forecastting'Technological forecasting and Social Change, 62:79 90. Martin, B. and Johnston, R. 1999)‘ Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system:
Experiences in Britain, Australia and New zealand',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 60:37 54. Mckinsey & Company (2009)‘ How companies are benefiting from Web 2. 0:
Examining ways of consolidating early detection schemes',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 78: 375 85. Salo, A.,Brummer, V. and Ko nno la, T. 2009)‘ Axes of balance in foresight:
Schultz, W. L. 2006)‘ The cultural contradictions of managing change: Using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context',Foresight, 8: 3 12.
blockbusters of the forces that change. In a hierarchical trend system, they are active at different levels.
mass customisation Change in work Individual is a lifetime entrepreneur, time and location flexibility, and mental flexibility necessary (lifelong learning), greater importance of women in business and society Increasing mobility and transport Due to increasing global flows of goods and leisure Increasing
The change from proposing a technology-driven cooperative project to a problemdriive is underestimated sometimes. Normally, a researcher applies for a project with a proposal based on technology-oriented programmes.
A factor analysis approach',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 68: 131 49. Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegemann, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
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