The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Petra Schaper-Rinkel AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria a r t i c l e
and then recognizing that the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 E-mail address:
& Social Change emergence of nanotechnology is adjudicated not just in labs, but rather also in processes such as technology forecasting, technology assessment and participatory future-oriented studies, involving scientists, policymakers, media,
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 As FTA is understood commonly as an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action,
446 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 support nanotechnology education, research and development the fastest will thrive in the new millennium 1. These statements illustrate that the report
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 approaches to address environmental, health, safety and societal impacts of nanotechnology as environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology 46 and to develop risk governance for nanotechnology 42.
448 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 Nanolux (optics industry, nanotechnology for energy efficient lighting.
449 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 In this later stage, heterogeneous stakeholders beyond the actors of the early established nano-policy networks
The capacity for change (facilitating policy implementation, embedding participation in policy-making and reconfiguring the policy system) was enhanced by building networks among government departments, agencies, industry and a broad variety of academic disciplines.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, several industrial countries established their first programs in 450 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
Making it in Miniature Nanotechnology Report Summery, POST, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology policy, London, 1996, p. 4. 451 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change
and methods and practices of futuring. 452 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
Rigorous assessment of coverage of dimensions of change, to foster the explicit consideration of possibly unrecognised/hidden structural changes Extended openness for diversity,
The findings of the project indicate interesting changes in the nexus of innovation demand and innovation supply.
the need to think about change in the conditions of change 2 is being recognised. One prominent example is the case of priority setting for science, technology and innovation policy a highly relevant domain of foresight activities.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Corresponding author. E-mail address: Elna. Schirrmeister@isi. fraunhofer. de (E. Schirrmeister.
& Social Change In such mission-oriented STI strategies the socioeconomic impact becomes the key criterion for STI priority setting.
Sustainability is another realm where the need for foresight methods that are able to unlock the potential for paradigmatic change rather than just highlighting incremental improvements along current trajectories is strongly emerging.
Accordingly, a change in innovation can no longer be investigated as a change in direction or priority but needs to be recognised as a change in kind.
Future innovation landscapes may function according to a different logic all together. The INFU (Innovation Futures) foresight project was set out to explore such future innovation landscapes.
1. screening for signals of changes linked to innovation in a wide range of online
Inductive foresight approach Visual inspiration Assessment of coverage of dimensions of change Extended openness for diversity (prolonged divergence.
Both these 1 www. innovation-futures. org. 454 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 approaches can be termed inductive
because they start by looking for diverse indications of change without predefined restrictions. Common ground of almost all the approaches is the consideration of impact
After the initial scanning process for signals of change the signalswere clustered by dimensions of change.
As a result 19 clusters of signals of change were identified. Each cluster pointed towards a specific change in innovation patterns,
derived from diverse signals of change from various sources of information. For each cluster, a fictive vision was developed by the project consortium by way of amplification using the three principles Transfer, Generalisation,
Radicalisation as shown in Fig. 1. Fig. 2 illustrates the amplification process for one of the clusters 23.
but also in the weak signal collection available on the internet. 2 The movie is available at www. innovation-futures. org. 455 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change
Changes in the behaviour or the use of a product would be detected without delay and the most appropriate ideas for product optimatisation would be available immediately.
The innovation would then be triggered by changes in the behaviour of people and there would be no time lag, thanks to real time investigation.
web-extracted innovation. 456 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 3. Screenshot from the INFU web-based
survey. 457 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 4. Visualisation of all INFU visions. 458 E. Schirrmeister,
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 2. 2. Visual inspiration The INFU amplifications were illustrated in a visual,
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 without any rootwithin phenomena that can be observed today 25,26.
These two visions were excluded thereafter from further interpretation. 2. 3. Assessment of coverage of dimensions of change A third innovative feature developed within INFU to underpin the capture of structural change is the application of a framework of dimensions of change at the very beginning of the project.
and the initial analysis of the signals of change described above 16. Throughout the project the team discussed
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 the scenario building activity is looking for a consensus building process among the participants
These so-called nodes of change in innovation 24 were subjected then to in depth discussionwithin the INFU mini panels (Table 1). The co-ordinators were identified in the course of the interviews as people with particularly relevant ideas and high
organisations or infrastructure. 3. INFU findings and lessons learnt 3. 1. The future of innovation preliminary insights The findings indicate interesting changes in the mediation between innovation demand
Dimensionof change Modified specificationextreme A Modification specificationextreme B Today's dominantspecification Fig. 7. Assessment of coverage of dimensions of change. 461 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting
& Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 mini panels were the emergence of more active roles for users and citizens
Node of change covered Mini panel co-ordinator Visioning approach 1. Citizens role in innovation governance Anders Jacobi Danish Board of Technology,
and use phases. 462 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 (2) Participation:
Fig. 9. Element from INFU mini panel Participatory Innovation. 463 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466
and scenario building approach used the signals of change to develop diverse visions without using an impact/uncertainty matrix
and divergence of the visions and fostered the search for specifications of dimension of change not covered in the first draft.
The systematic assessment of the findings supported deliberate inclusion or exclusion of dimensions of change.
when working in a project consortium) 31 the assessment of coverage of dimensions of change supported the project teamin looking for specific signals of change that had at first been neglected due to perception filters.
The inductive approach (focussing on signals of change at the micro level) and the extended openness for diversity are typical elements of weak signal scanning processes.
The assessment of dimensions of change is similar to the concept of alternative logics, which has been proved to be a robust and resilient approach to develop alternative scenarios 32, p. 111.
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 dominance of the macro-level and the influence of today's perception of consistency were reduced to give room for creative assessment of structural transformation.
The framework of dimensions of change used to assess the results of the signal screening phase enabled the INFU team to systematically question anticipatory assumptions and to reintroduce opposing views in a reflexive manner.
and restructured several times, the check against dimensions of change seems promising. Accordingly it seems worthwhile to further develop
465 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 References 1 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C
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when fast moving technological and social changes can expose wrong bets made both on platform technologies
what is going on by observing that the rate of social change has overtaken the rate of technological change
and by implication wider changes in the world economic order. Taking the conference as a whole, regularly used keywords emphasised discontinuities with a discourse around grand challenges,
transformations and disruptive change while references to adaptation and alignment hinted at strategies for coping Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 Corresponding author at:
lists available at Sciverse Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change with these futures. While it is the task of futurists in general to anticipate,
which change is considered. In the domain of innovation policy government actions have been fundamentally gradualist in their approach since the1980s.
J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 and more an input into understanding what its transformative implications might be.
The bigger change in policy is in the domain of strategic and applied research where the notion of grand or societal challenges has risen to prominence,
J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 but may not be desirable to achieve.
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foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy, Futures 43 (3)( 2011) 243 251.10 L. Georghiou, Europe's research system must change, Nature 452 (2008) 935
, Technological forecasting and Social Change 80 (3)( 2013) 386 397. Luke Georghiou is Professor of Science and Technology policy and Management in the Manchester Institute of Innovation research at Manchester Business school.
and R&i policy at the European and international level, serving on a number of EU expert groups. 470 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467
Adaption to upcoming changes might be considered more important in these countries. The third implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to tolerance for deviant ideas.
Following the general elections and the change of Government in November 2001, the ministries were reorganised,
Also following the change in Government, the budget for the technology foresight programme was reduced to DKK 18 million (ca. EUR 2. 4 million).
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (May 4))(2008) 462 482.6 O. Saritas, Systemic foresight methodology, in:
L. B. Rasmussen (Ed.),Facilitating Change Using Interactive Methods in Organisations, Communities, and Networks, Polyteknisk Forlag, DK, 2011.14 E. H. Schein, Organisational Culture and Leadership, 3rd ed.,John Wiley & Sons, NY, 2004.15 G. Morgan
and workshops to increase awareness about possible future changes. We used an independent evaluation that was conducted in 2010 by the University of Twente 21, based on interviews with 21 politicians and civil servants and a document analysis. Furthermore,
'such as the dynamics of change, future challenges, risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the current system, visions for change,
to gain a better understanding of the future of the issue at stake, the degrees of uncertainty involved, the coherence of future developments, the speed of change of developments,
in order to determine whether policy assumptions develop in accordance with the intended direction and velocity of change N. Rijkens-Klomp,
Also, in the‘organizational foresight'study, the various foresight studies of the future carried out by the government departments are designed to form initial ideas and opinions about organisational change.
foresight methods stimulate the user to take future developments and changes into account in a structured way.
and change is embraced rather than opposed. They also had the impression that future-oriented policy-making is by its nature a kind of well-informed policy-making.
Hazeu, E. van der Linde, P. Rademaker, On the use of futures research for organizational change in Dutch government ministries, Futures 12 (2010) 23 36.25 O. Da
the case of Japan, Technological forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 431 447. N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 26
and recommendations which are adaptive to change). Ko nno la et al. 15 claim that stakeholders'diversity1 is important to foster innovation capabilities through the creation of viable alternatives (scenarios) that escape the existing dominant designs
Moreover, there is also the need to adapt the process and results to changes in the environment.
and other changes that could influence the realisation of the proposed idea. The results from the above initiatives were complemented with the outcomes from two brainstorming workshops and 106 interviews with industry representatives.
and required changes to have realised these. All these activities produced a total of 754 research issues to be explored further
Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of rules
joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 27 65.6 O. Saritas, Systems thinking for Foresight,(Ph d. thesis), Manchester
Toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303.8 T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, V. Brummer, Foresight for European Coordination:
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.16 L a. Costanzo, Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment, Futures 36 (2004
experiences from the preparation of an international research programme, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495.30 D. White, J. Fortune, Current practice in project management an empirical
Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Corresponding author.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 The contribution describes methodologies and approaches developed for the purpose.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 thus advance the existing literature, on how the business sector (e g. industry, industrial associations and foundations) uses FTA TOOLS for a variety of reasons.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Fabiana Scapolo: She works at the European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461
Towards Innovation Foresight: Two empirical case studies on future TV experiences for/by users Katrien De Moor a b, 1,,
, due to the anticipated changes. However, as is argued in this paper, this does not imply that users simply lack the capacity,
(i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives
For the internet and connected TV personas finally, the biggest difference that was found between the positive and negative persona was that the former is ready and eager to experience future TV now and that the latter emphasises the importance of gradual change
Proceedings Participatory Design Conference, 2008, pp. 186 189.14 J. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 268
and targets according to requirements of strategic or dynamic changes. This allows a better allocation of resources
in order to efficiently respond to such changes. 4 The fourth phase (strategic learning) is based on the model proposed by Kaplan and Norton 12,
and experiences as well as obtain consensus on the changes needed in their existing BSC, i e. formalised in this way a‘‘contract''to implement a new management model.
The involvement of community leadership reflected a change in the operationalisation of the institution's strategy
it was possible to see that the institution was not able to shape a process to build a shared understanding of stakeholders'views as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes.
(thus supporting phase 1). It does so by enabling a shared understanding of stakeholders'views as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes (thus supporting phase 2). This builds upon knowledge
ilities and dyna mic change s, all of which are critical to be tter unde rstan d ways in
S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 57 intelligence systems, direction setting, priority setting, strategy formulation, marketing, organisational change,
and acquire necessary capabilities to meet changes, including the challenges resulting from the above listed trends 38.2.2.2.
and led to strategic changes within the company. Thus, the project filled the third key role of foresight as described above
At the same time, changes in the image of the future for example, due to an adapted vision as a result of leadership activities can mean that the transition path has to be adapted
and reasoning leading to these changes were not clearly identifiable. Despite the communication of openness the management of WINN should embrace external partners to a higher degree.
Beyond that, collaborative innovation requires a change in the mindset of the people within the organizations.
factors in new product success, European Journal of Marketing 14 (1980) 277 292.2 J. Tidd, Managing Innovation Integrating Technological, Market and Organization Change
its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm, Technological forecasting and Social Change 78 (2009) 231 243.6 H. Chesbrough, Open innovation:
and tipping points, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 715 730.19 K. Cuhls, Foresight with Delphi surveys in Japan, Technology analysis & Strategic management 13 (2001) 555 569.20 K
of new business fields, Technological forecasting and Social Change 79 (2012) 819 831.40 O. Gassmann, E. Enkel
Those lead to significant changes both in everyday life and business models under the combined influence of technological, organisational and behavioural innovations.
even methodollogie that have been developed to deal explicitly with a range of potential futures are reaching their limits in the face of the scope and pace of change in the creative content sector.
and user interaction and we highlighted some essential trends of change, identifyyin opportunities and threats for the European indusstr in each of the sub-sectors.
However, the uncertainntie over the direction of change and the radically different consequences this could have on social and economic sustainability of the sector in Europe made it impossible after the analysis stage to draw any initiia conclusions upon
in order to review the results and change their assessment as necessary (Friedewald et al, 2007). In a nutshell, the Delphi survey revealed only a small number of topics where experts did not reach a consensus about the likely future development.
innovative enterprises that experts regaar as the drivers of technological and business changes can be supported in an environment that is currently dominated by a few globally active corporations;
While all the steps leading to the policy analysis revealed important findings on potential directions of change and consequently possible challenges for policy-making,
where the fast pace of change can rapidly make any foresight outcomes obsolete. As to the adequacy of the methodology for shapiin a vision of the creative content sector as such, we can conclude that the process helped raise key issues and controversies relevant to the sector as depicted by the four scenarios.
Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75 (4), 462 482. Friedewald, M, von Oertzen, J and Cuhls, K 2007:
Technological forecasting and Social Change, 73 (4), 321 333. Ilmolaa, L and O Kuusibb 2006. Filters of weak signals hinder foresight:
and emerging drivers of change Builds trust and shared basis of experience between system actors Detect
and analyze weak signals that enable actors to‘foresee'changes ahead Facilitate better understanding of potentially disruptive change Provide anticipatory intelligence about the systems
and their changes to system actors Development of significant new ways of thinking about challenges and opportunities Promote collective learning through open exchanges of information
But it must also be well described so that the context of change, incluudin both its challenges and opportunities, can be appreciated.
Over the years the program went through numerous changes, in the host organization (from National Reseaarc Council 2002 2004, to Privy council office 2005 2006, to Industry Canada 2007 2008.
With a change in government and a progressive demotion of the NSA function as the new government became more confident in its abilities,
and the change in government led to a more tightly controlled system for strategic messaging and press relations Stakeholder integration:
For examplle recognition of the role of information technology (IT) provides a powerful driver of change in approaache to biosecurity
Technological forecasting & Social Change, 71 (1 2), 5 26. Phucharoenchanachai, Suthee 2005. EID Concept Paper.
It largely ascribes changes in society to technological advances, which are assumed thus to have important social consequences (Haddon et al.,
and is considered to be influenced by‘change agents'(e g. private firms, influential individuals etc.).In the theory of diffusionism, the first group of people who adopt the new technology (innovators
Change in CIMT intensity (1990 1996:++for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms adopting CIMT for first time Donzé (2002),
Switzerland Programme of promoting use of CIMT (CIM Programme, 1990 1996) 463 Matched-pair analysis (several alternative methods) Change in CIMT intensity (1990 1996):+
b) matched-pair analysis Change in CIMT intensity (1992 1998:++for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms with low intensity of CIMT use Görg andstrobl (2007), Ireland R&d grants from (Industrial Development Agency (IDA) Ireland and Forbairt
Drivers of dynamic processes of change and sudden disruptive transformations range from rapid technological changes to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
while the effort committed to advancing FTA as an adaptive tool (assisting governments to plan for incremental change) have been useful,
to investing in developing in-house competencies for coping with sudden change. A tighter embedding of FTA in support of decision-making is needed in the context of a fast-changing, turbulent and complex environment.
As a consequence, there is a growing need for the capacity to anticipate change to be embedded centrally in policy-and decision-making,
Science itself will also be a source of new challenges but also opportunities through its contribution to technologgica change in areas such as:
'and detecting and responding to early signals of potential dramatic change. However, it has to be noted that FTA can challenge current systems
and have an open attitude to changes in systems. These should not be seen as threats
embedding an FTA capacity designed primarily not to support incremental change, but to act as a warning and progenitor of disruptive change;.
Finally, social engagement means a change in the pattern of behavior by the citizens, much more participative and conscious of their rights.
as well as new manageemen approaches and changes of focus, from short-to 246. C. C. Nehme et al. medium-and long-term, in organizations, government structures and their many links and relationships.
Thirdly, we observe that there has been a change in the pattern of citizens'behavior, they are willing to participate in decisions
This change of behavior is logical, since the common citizen suffers directly from the effects of environmental changes.
The changes and adaptations required in the methodologgica approach to increase the chances of success..The strategies developed to generate intangibles.
the political changes that could affect it as a government-owned company. 5. 2 Future perspectives A tool the future timeline was developed
it is clear that a great change is anticipated often by a series of micro-events, often not perceived.
When change is consolidated, those who were able to perceive the signs certainly have a comparative advantage over others (Loveridge 2009).
or change drivers are actually relevant and to imagine a timeframe in which they may possibly occur.
This was created due to FINEP's need to promote changes in its organizational and management processes,
Some important changes and adaptations to the methodological approach were required, and are described briefly below. Figure 5. Methodological process for development of FINEP's SMP. 254.
Changes in attitudes and mind-sets helps people think about long-term issues and be prepared better to face the challenges ahead..
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 462 82. European commission, Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies.
towards integration of the field and new methods',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71: 287 303. Santos, M m.,
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