'In parallel with the term‘foresight',the term‘future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)' is used by the European commission's Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), for example.
JRC-IPTS has defined FTA as‘a common umbrella term for technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment'12.
As, in practice, both foresight and FTA draw on, by and large, the same methodological foundation, this paper draws on the literature for both terms.
Acknowledgements An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 12 13 may 2011, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville, Spain.
recent experiences and future perspectives, Research Evaluation 19 june (2))(2010) 91 104.4 M. Keenan, R. Barre',C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis:
Future-oriented technology analysis. Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 163 169.5 E. Eriksson, K. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
Forth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic transformations SEVILLE, 12 13,may 2011. 7 J. Irvine, B
regions, Foresight 10 (6)( 2008) 16 38.12 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, Positioning future-oriented technology analysis, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.
Future-oriented technology analysis. Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 1 13.13 L. B. Rasmussen, Interactive scenario analysis, in:
any deployment of future oriented technology analysis (FTA) must be able to take into account trans-border, often global considerations.
This paper addresses FTA and in particular foresight design and management in an international context. The aim is to draw lessons for international foresight processes on the basis of a specific international foresight project on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems.
an international FTA project addressing the future of intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS). Section 4 outlines the lessons learned from the authors'experiences in designing
how FTA projects like IMS hold out the promise of achieving better international coordination and joint preparedness for future grand challenges.
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer-verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008.11 T. Ko nno la, K. Haegeman, Embedding foresight in transnational research programming, Science and Public policy 39
(2)( 2012) 191 207.12 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA and equity: new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (3)( 2011.
) 219 235.17 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) 140
Poster presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, 2011.29 V. Brummer, T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, Foresight within era nets:
Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: Impact on policy and decision-making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR Fabiana Scapolo a,, Alan L. Porter b c, d, Michael Rader e a European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Brussels, Belgium b R&d for Search Technology, Inc
.,Norcross, GA, United states c Industrial & Systems Engineering, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, USA d Public policy, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, USA e
Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe Institute of technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Received 29 february 2008 Introduction The contributions included in this special issue build on material presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
This International Seminar was founded on the success of the joint EU US Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) that was organised by JRC-IPTS in 2004.
This biannual event is becoming a reference within the FTA COMMUNITIES to increase understanding of the advances occurring in the field of FTA for academics
1 The FTA acronym refers to strategic foresight, forecasting and technology assessment. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.03.001 The six articles included in this Special issue were presented in 2006.
The overarching theme was the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, 2 placing emphasis on the delivery of valued policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES. 1. FTA assumptions,
methods and approaches Four of the six contributions address a specific theme of the Seminar on the evolution over the years of FTA assumptions, methods and approaches.
In fact, in the past 10 to 15 years, FTAACTIVITIES havemultiplied across a wide spectrum of settings and at different levels.
and vary from concerns with the take-up of FTA knowledge in policy and decision processes, through to organisational vision-building,
http://ec. europa. eu/research/era/index en. html. 2 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/intro. html. 458 F
and outlook. 2. FTA evaluation, impact and learning Another very important theme addressed by the FTA 2006 International Seminar relates to FTA evaluation, impact and learning.
The objective of tackling this issue was to address sponsor concerns for better accounts of demonstrable impacts.
These disciplines could provide frameworks to analyse some of the advantages and benefits of FTA APPROACHES.
For example, knowledge generated through the application of fta methods, FTA as a process of coproduuctio of stakeholder communities (i e. social capital),
and FTA as a collective learning mechanism through the sequential interplay between codified and tacit knowledge could be examined
and goal attainment levels. 3. FTA on specific issues Two themes of the 2006 FTA International Seminar put FTA into contexts.
The two issues are FTA in a business context and FTA on Higher education. The objective of the first was to collect knowledge,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 thus advance the existing literature, on how the business sector (e g. industry, industrial associations and foundations) uses FTA TOOLS for a variety of reasons.
For FTA on Higher education, the objective was to stimulate forwardlookking strategic reflections and vision-building on universities.
and he addresses the above listed shortcomings. 4. Concluding remarks We note some of the issues presented in the concluding session of the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR.
These stem from an address4 given by The chair and a Member of the Technical Committee of the 2006 FTA Seminar
and provide knowledge on the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making: It is becoming evident that FTA is a useful tool to facilitate,
inform and improve policy-making. The way forward for FTA lies in the accumulation of experience that has to be evaluated carefully and validated.
In order to have an impact and be effective, it is important that FTA practitioners understand the policy-making process.
This could be achieved by adapting and fine-tuning FTA ACTIVITIES to fit particular context and clients.
The challenge remains to have FTA ACTIVITIES more closely integrated within the policy-making process. However, influencing policy-making
and decision-making requires addressing the cloudy world of the relationship of knowledge to power. 4 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/conclusions. html. 460 F. Scapolo et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Fabiana Scapolo: She works at the European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre.
Why‘open innovation'is old wine in new bottles, International Journal of Innovation Management 13 (2009) 715 736.3 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA
Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer-verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 71 87.5 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, International Journal of Foresight
and Innovation policy (IJFIP) 1 (2004) 4 32.6 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:
Paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), Seville, 12 13,may 2011. K. De Moor et al./
The roles of fta in improving performance measurement systems to enable alignment between business strategy and operations: Insights from three practical cases Sidnei Vieira Marinho a,,
Performance measurement systems FTA Strategy Implementation A b s T R A c T Despite the growing number of publications on firms'performance measurement systems (PMS), consensus
they highlight that the inclusion of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) would have prevented some of the failures experienced.
FTA is seen as crucial in linking strategy and operations with a long-term vision of where a firm sees itself in the future.
In this regard, FTA holds the promise to embed critical aspects for jointly shaping common directions to follow across a firm's value chain.
The authors conclude by highlighting specific ways in which FTA can be integrated in the PMS proposed. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
FTA is suggested therefore, in Section 4, as a possible instrument to deal with such shortcomings
we argue that embedding FTA in the system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
And these are characteristics intrinsic to FTA, which must then be embedded in the proposed system to enable an effective connection between strategy and implementation across the value chain. 4. Roles of fta FTA and its elements of strategic foresight,
forecasting and technology assessment can play a number of important roles in linking a firm's strategy to its implementation across the value chain.
by embedding FTA in the proposal. FTA has a long tradition in creating spaces for dialogue
and in engaging different actors to confront views, learn from one another, and agree on a path to follow.
At the same time, FTA is considered to contribute to enhanced governance modes that improve the performance of innovation systems 41.
or networked learning (facilitated through FTA). They affirm that networked learning enables a process of innovation and institutional adaptation that is participatory, interactive and in
FTA supports one to deal with complexity 47 to process and interpret weak signals, wild cards 48,49 and alternative options 46,50,
embedding FTA within the proposed system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
Fig. 2 outlines the proposed‘‘renewed''system including the FTA aspects here outlined. The‘‘renewed''system proposed in Fig. 2 holds the promise of supporting the shaping of a shared vision across the value chain
and includes FTA elements into this structure to empower the organisation to appropriately apply foresight in business 39 using a PMS.
anticipatory PHASE 1 FTA suppo rts the develo pmen t of a sha red visio n across the valu e chain aligne d with the organ isatio
STRATEGIC LEARNING PHASE 4 FTA provid es a sha red unde rstandin g of stakehold ers'vie ws as well as of risks, opportun itie s, system capab
Th is is critical for the de fin itio n of a visio n t o be pu rsue d. FTA in volves the collective articulatio n of visions
Fig. 2. FTA embedded within the proposed system. S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 57 intelligence systems, direction setting, priority setting, strategy formulation, marketing, organisational change,
This is particularly true with a view of aligning value chain actors towards a shared vision enabled through FTA.
and practice with FTA, which in itself is an original contribution to the former field.
By doing so the authors'claim that the use of the system proposed aligned with FTA helps overcoming overall PMS (and in particular BSC) limitations.
Finally, embedding FTA within the system proposed shall enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
the renewed system with embedded FTA supports the system under analysis (i e. value chain) to undertake systemic transitions
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Heidelberg, 2008.40 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science
41 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA and equity: new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
2nd International Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 2006.24 J. Hausschildt, S. Salomo, Innovations Management, 4th ed.,Vahlen, Munich, 2007.25 R. Solow, Technical change
and the aggregate production function, Review of Economics and Statistics 39 (1959) 312 320.26 W. M. Cohen, D. A. Levinthal, Absorptive capacity:
Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making Karel Haegeman, Jennifer C Harper and Ron Johnston Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals,
This special section is selected based on papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain,
and that there is an urgeen need to inform decision-makers of the potential value of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES (Johnston and Cagnin, 2010).
Therefore, the aim of this special section is to refine FTA METHODOLOGIES in order to increase their impact in policy-making.
First, it suggests a specific definition of FTA, identifying its different possible roles for policy and decision-making.
It then formulaate a set of general recommendations with the intentiio of improving the policy impact of fta.
which these different papers propose to redefine FTA in specific policy-making contexts. The papers that form this special section were selected from those presented at the Third Internatiiona Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis held 16 17 october 2008 in Seville, Spain.
This biannual conference provides a common platform for user communities of foresight, forecasting and technology assessment to reflect on these challenges.
The third conference focused on the impact that FTA can have on policy and decisiionmaking and its implications.
Defining FTA and its impact on policy and decision-making FTA is a generic label that groups a number of forward-looking methodologies used to better T Karel Haegeman is at the Institute for Prospective Technologicca Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit, Edificio
Expo WTC, C/Inca Garcilaso 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain; Email: karelherrmanhaegeman@ec. europa. eu. Dr Jennifer Harper is at the Malta Council for Science and Technology, Villa Bighi, Kalkara CSP 12, Malta;
The FTA labbe brings together a set of widely differing techniqques and several scholars have proposed different classifications of these techniques.
The different dimenssion used to classify these different FTA techniqque include: the type of technique (qualitative versus (semi) quantitative), the type of approach (exploratory versus normative),
Scapolo and Porter (2008) propose 13 families grouping more than 50 FTA METHODS, building on a typology proposed during the first FTA conference in Seville by the Technology Future Analysis methods Working group (see Table 1). Keenan
and Popper (2007) defined six principles to distinguish FTA from other policy-support techniqques future-orientation, participation, evidencebassed multidisciplinarity, coordinated mobilisation of people and resources,
and action orientation. Not all techniques described in the classifications mentioone comply to the same extent with all six principlles For example,
whether or not a methodology belongs under the FTA umbrella. But they could also be considered as qualitattiv criteria,
which a techniiqu can be considered to be part of the FTA toolbox. Its average score can then be defined as its FTA-score.
Table 2 shows examples of modelling and horizon scanning. Horizon scanning is a rather new FTA tool,
as further described below, and could become a 14th family of methods in Scapolo and Porter's classificcation The scores on the six principles can also differ for the same tool,
they can result in a higher overall FTA score. Refining FTA METHODOLOGIES with the aim to imprrov their impact on policy
and decision-making requires a clear definition of what this impact can be. At first sight, the degree of action-orientation of any FTA is likely to determine the degree of its impact on policy and decision-making.
However, other characteristics of FTA can influence its impaact depending on the functions of FTA in a particular context.
Karel Haegeman is a scientific officer at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commisssion His activities focus on both advancing
Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence
trend impact analysis Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 5 Six functions of FTA for policy-making are:
These functions were an important outcome of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis held in 2006.
Refining FTA for more impact on policy and decision-making With a view to improving the impact of fta on policy-making and thus on the extent to
which FTA succeeds in fulfilling the above-mentioned functions, the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis arrived at various general recommendations for increasing the impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in policy-making,
such as: Do not think of impacts at the end. Rather, start with the impacts and their larger implications early enough to engage clients
and stakeholders in the strategic question of how FTA can improve both their preparedness and ability to move fast
when the signals or threats are there. Make sure the client's policy commitments as well as communication resources are provided well for
Translate and transfer FTA outputs into policy and decision outcomes. What has been accepted by many FTA practitioners as‘post-foresight,
'and hence not their responsibility, should now be recognised as an integral part of the FTA PROCESS. Apart from these general recommendations, individuua papers presented at the conference proposed a wide variety of methodological approaches that could improve policy impact.
The papers selected for this special section of Science and Public policy explore how both public
Furthermore, by exploring new mixes of FTA TOOLS they contribute to the creation of FTA techniques that are more adaptive to clients'needs and to context characteristiics Last but not least, this special section also contribbute to the identification of key success factors in the application of these techniques.
and data of three governmental horizon Table 2. FTA scores for modelling and horizon scanning FTA score for modelling FTA score for horizon scanning Characteristic Score Comment Characteristic
Methods and tools contributing to FTA. Paper presented at Third International Seville Conferennc on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008, Seville, Spain.
Johnston, R and C Cagnin 2010. The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: addressing the Cassandra challenge. Futures (in press.
Keenan, R and R Popper (eds. 2007. Guide to Research Infrastruccture Foresight. Brussels: European commission. Popper, R 2008.
Dark scenarios as a constructive tool for future-oriented technology analysis: safeguaard in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI.
Paper presennte at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
New methodological developmeent in FTA. In Future-oriented technology analysis: Strateegi Intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnson, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds..
Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer verlag. Sripaipan, C 2006. Foresight in a nonprofit organisation: a case of the Technology Promotion Association (Thailand Japan.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 Septembbe 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september, Seville, Spain.
Use of the internet for future-oriented technology analysis. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain
Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010007-12 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 7 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
This paper discusses the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building.
3 and discusses amongst other topics the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool to set the agenda for more specifically focused foresiigh activities and other future-oriented technology analysis (FTA TOOLS.
and sciennc and technology (S&t) foresight and other FTA TOOLS by its wide scope and its function to envisage the complexity of future societal problems
Horiizo scanning does not replace the more focused FTA ACTIVITIES but can be considered highly supportiiv of them
and scope the themes that have to be examined in more depth with other FTA TOOLS. In addition
Evaluation, Impact and Learning, Anchor paper Theme 2. Paper presented at Second joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 18 International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. Cassingena Harper, J 2006.
Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
European commission, Directorate-General for Research Scientiifi and Technological foresight 2006. Creative system disrupttion towards a research strategy beyond Lisbon, Report of the Key technologies Expert Group.
Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain Ministère de l'Écologie, de l'Energie, du Développement durable
et de l'Aménagement du territoire, 2006. L'aménagement en 50 tendances. Available from<http://www. rechercheinnovvationequipement. gouv. fr/article. php3?
Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Schwarz, J O 2006. Die Zukunft der Zukunftsforschung im Deutschen Management: eine Delphi Studie. Available at<http://www. jan-schwarz. de/downloads/executivesummary. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
As a consequence, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES like foresight have gained growing attention in recent years in the EU and worldwide,
Established FTA approaache tend to struggle with the double challenge of exploring future trajectories of extremely fastchanngin areas like creative content
When commissioning an FTA of the creative content sector in 2007 2008 the European commission was expecctin
and allowed the methods to be used in the next stage of the FTA PROCESS to be specified. In other words, the methodological details were adjusste in‘real-time'depending on the knowledge generated in the course of the process.
and assesses the FTA procees and methodology used to envision the future of the European creative content sector,
and demonstrate how the FTA and methodology chosen succeeded in building strategic knowledge in support of a sustainabbl European creative content sector in the future.
We further draw some lessons about the impact of using this particular FTA APPROACH on European commission policy-making,
The overall objective of the FTA had been to provide the policy-making process with strategic intelligence by taking a prospective view towards the evolution of ICT and
However, the above finding raises the question of the appropriateness of carrying out a FTA on such a diverse sector with a specific policy area like R&d in mind.
Conclusion The methodological setup of the FTA described and analysed in this paper is anchored in the adaptive foresight framework,
and of the possibilities of what FTA can deliver as it is to the client's unrealistic expectations.
Pretending to be more preciis than serious FTA allows would be both methodologgicall questionable and unethical.
It is therefore no surprise that the FTA policy impact was limited rather in the sense that it did not lead to any direct policy measures or specific initiatives.
if an FTA is expected, as in our case, to generate knowledge and insights to feed directly into formulation of current-day policy options.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
Conceptually, this would be multifaceted a complex evaluation based on the broad impacts of an FTA PROCESS. Similarly, Amanatidou and Guy (2006) have pointed out the direct and indirect benefits of FTA:
Foresight programmes are evaluated usually in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts.
FTA objectives reported by the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN)* A review by the authors of reports on mapping foresight by the EFMN reveals the wide range of objectives that different nations
Buetschi and Nentwich (2000) identified several context or foundational success factors for influencing the political role of participatoor technology assessment (see Table 3). These studies tell us that FTA EXERCISES should not be viewed independently of their contexts
and they remiin us that FTA is also a sociopolitical activity and should be understood as such.
2006) looked at FTA from the corporate perspective and identified several criteria (content and process) for improving the effectiveness of foresight studies (see Table 4). Survey process From the preceding discussion,
Pleas from sponsors of FTA ACTIVITIES for better accounts of demonstrable impacts are as old as FTA itself.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Sripaipan This paper presents a future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) project on the control and management of emerging infectious diseases (EID) in the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation region.
It combines several FTA METHODS. Technologies that are potentially effective in biosecurity and in combating EID were identified first by bibliometric analysis, online survey and scenario planning.
Within the scope of existing and new technollog development to combat EID, the study proviide evidence of how the FTA can address societal issues and challenges,
and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA. Bibliometric analysis and online survey complement each other in providing insights
It is believed that this kind of comprehensive FTA will increasingly be needed as the nature of the new challenges to humankind are increasingly borderless
This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
In Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnston, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds.
The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy? Mark Boden1,,
Mark. boden@ec. europa. eu. The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) held in May 2011, focussed on the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in global and national structures
which they address key issues in the development and implementation of FTA in relation to these challenges.
These papers examine the reorientation of research and innovation systems and the integration of FTA within them.
New approaches to FTA are examined also with lessons drawn from the experiences at both national and international levels in the application of fta.
The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) entitled‘‘FTA and Grand Societal Challenges: Shaping and Driving Structural and Systematic Transformations organised by the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre (JRC-IPTS) was held in May 2011.
This edition of the conference focussed on the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in global and national structures, systems, rules and practices in response to grand societal challenges.
and call for appropriate forms of FTA to support and enable both organisations and individuals to anticipate,
adapt and respond pro-actively to change. 1 A closing summary of the FTA Conference outcomes in relation to policy needs by Georghiou (2011) highlighted the extent to which the global scale, complexity,
while the effort committed to advancing FTA as an adaptive tool (assisting governments to plan for incremental change) have been useful,
A tentative claim might be that FTA and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovation in organisations and governance.
One particular feature of the 2011 FTA Conference was the organisation of two invitation-only sessions devoted to good practice in foresight for policy.
what kind of emerging issues should FTA seek to address, which actors should be engaged, what actions should
These included the continuing adaptation of FTA to the changing economic and policy environment. This is instanced by the recent reframing of FTA from contributing to evidence-based policy towards a greater emphasis on the construction, analysis and interpretation of narratives.
Another significant shift is from primarily expert-based approaches to continuous highly participative‘crowdbassed processes.
and innovattio system towards major societal challenges, with greater integration of FTA;.the development and implementation of new approaches to FTA, particularly the application of horizon scanning;.
experiences of particular organisations, operating at both national and international levels, in applying FTA to their own innovation activities as well as those of key stakeholders.
Embedding foresight into and across national, and increasinngl transnational, research and innovation systems can be seen to offer the most effective approach to meeting crosscutting societal challenges.
Cagnin, Amanatidou and Keenan address the roles that FTA can play in orienting the innovation system to more effectively address the grand challenges.
In their view, FTA can facilitate experimentation and learning by providing safe spaces for new ideas to emerge
FTA can support the development of knowledge by providing, for example, insights on longer-term developments, the scope and opportunities for shaping futures,
At the same time, FTA can support and reinforce the emergence of‘hybrid fora'that bring together diverse and often disparaat actors that might not normally interact.
Weber, Cassingena Harper, Ko nno la and Carabias suggest that addressing the grand challenges requires a new kind of FTA.
and businesses to shift FTA ACTIVITIES from individual large-scale foresight programmes and projects, to investing in developing in-house competencies for coping with sudden change.
A tighter embedding of FTA in support of decision-making is needed in the context of a fast-changing, turbulent and complex environment.
and the role that FTA can play in helping to address the inherent complexity. Drawing on evidence from three cases on foresight processes in research programming
they highlight both the value that FTA can bring to the programming process, and also the challenges posed to foresight design and management.
The value of novel approaches to FTA to more effectivvel identify, understand and thus respond to grand challennge has been addressed in two of the papers,
Amanatidou, Butter, Carabias, Ko nno la, Leis, Saritas, Schaper-Rinkel and van Rij argue that FTA METHODS can provide important enabling early warning signal detecctio
The experience of FTA practitioners in implementing foresight tools provides further evidence of the effectivenees of particular tools in meeting particular challenges in the most appropriate ways.
Case study evidence is a core The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 137 feature of every FTA conference.
The application of fta in large research-based organisations in developing both their own strategic orientation and those of their clients, can offer wider lessons for both the organisational integratiio of FTA and the identification and continued evolution
as well as to the FTA conference more generally, clearly demonstrate there is a growing volume of valuable and appropriable experiennc in the development and application of fta, in terms of both the process and methods and the organisational context in
is via a much more systematic embedding of FTA within government. In fact, FTA can provide safe spaces for new ideas to emerge
and be experimented with. But this certainly also requires greater emphasis on an FTA which is less concerrne to be‘adaptive'and supportive,
and rather more concerned with a relatively new type of FTA with an emphasis more on‘thinking the impossible,
'and detecting and responding to early signals of potential dramatic change. However, it has to be noted that FTA can challenge current systems
and through its implementation it can explore for new approaches that might include incremental but also radical changes.
embedding an FTA capacity designed primarily not to support incremental change, but to act as a warning and progenitor of disruptive change;.
Notes 1. Introduction, Fourth International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/intro. html>accessed March 2012.138.
Georghiou, L. 2011)‘ Connecting conference outcomes with policy needs, options and implications'paper presented during final plenary session at the Fourth International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain
The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 139
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