FTA and equity: New approaches to governance Cristiano Cagnin a,,*Denis Loveridge b, Ozcan Saritas b adg Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Calle Inca Garcilaso 3, 41092 Seville, Spain
b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, United kingdom 1. Introduction The paper addresses Future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) in the context of the issues that ought to be considered for its application to support the quest for new forms of governance embracing governments, wider
and use of FTA in the public sector there has been substantial growth in foresight and FTA in business.
Available online 26 november 2010 A b s T R A c T FTA and equity addresses the need for multiple stakeholders'participation in public policy and corporate decision making thus leading to more democratic societies.
The current paper addresses Future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) in the context of a better understanding of issues that ought to be considered by the FTA COMMUNITY
Setting a new landscape for the FTA, the paper concludes with those issues where the FTA COMMUNITY is starting to devote attention,
The later discussion intends to enable the FTA COMMUNITY to reflect on how FTA ACTIVITIES can support the move towards more democratic societies and the potential impacts of FTA in governance.
The link with FTA is obvious. It leads towards a notion of an extended role for FTA in a world where new forms of governance are growing from the emergence of the combined phenomena of globalisation
and glocalisation and to the need to anticipate the future needs to manage risk and regulation.
'The role of FTA, as it affects human and natural life, has a pivotal role to play in assuring the continuation of human rights, freedom, democracy and privacy, all of
These methods have to be seen in the context systems thinking of which they are all sub-sets as are the methods that accompany any future oriented technology analysis.
However, the current practices of the FTA are not deep enough to understand and intervene in these transformed systems.
Current FTA does not go beyond the application of certain methods which are rooted in technological forecasting
Consequently, FTA has to transform itself too.‘‘‘‘What then can FTA learn from this transformation?''
''is the main question this paper raises by describing the new governance landscape which can be represented by a Venn diagram with a triangle at the centre of the three intersecting systems (Fig. 1). 4. Social-cultural evolution The growing need for a better
and illustrate how FTA is embedded in the background to the influences globalisation and glocalisation on the three pillars of corporate and industrial activity,
FTA in support of new forms of governance Governance methods and systems have not been institutionalised on a broad and continuous basis possibly
How can FTA strategies and methods make sure that the visions of different stakeholders can be represented harmonised
7. 1. FTA for public decision making Actors affected by innovation processes ought to be involved more in technological development,
7. 2. FTA for corporate decision making The challenges faced by corporations reflect the structural changes taking place in the economy and society.
In this context, corporations have used FTA to detect and prepare responses to challenges which have arisen due to:
It then becomes critical to understand how FTA practices can support the need to choose which social issues to pursue strategically on a participative, consensus-oriented and inclusive way
however, is to understand how FTA can support companies in anticipating impacts which are recognised not yet well
a new role for FTA The new role this paper suggests for FTA brings with it issues
Any new mantra for FTA needs to recognise the obsolescence of the conventional mantra of invention and innovation as primary supports to‘growth'economics.
should be part of any new mantra for FTA. Throughout it should be remembered that invention and scientific breakthrough are pseudo-random, if not totally random events in time and nature.
The move towards a new mantra for FTA is shyly and slowly being shaped since, at least, the Second International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (September 2006.
The greater acknowledgement of the co-evolution of technology and society, as well as the claim that FTA practices should be submitted to interpretation of their significance by the relevant disciplines of the social sciences
and humanities (SSH), has been pivotal in this move since it led to the understanding that FTA ACTIVITIES,
Long term and systemic analysis are key characteristics of FTA, which explicitly deals with complex socio-technical systems and science society relationships.
FTA is also an agenda-setting process aimed at providing anticipatory intelligence as basis for decision making.
Not surprisingly, FTA has relevance in all human activities where there are collective stakes 43. In the 2006 FTA Conference, the FTA COMMUNITY realised the need to address the imperative of improving the two-way linkage between knowledge and the building of a‘common world'.
'To do so a vivid debate took place in trying to grasp the C. Cagnin et al./
At the same time, the contribution and intervention of FTA on global issues still needs to be conceptualised better to enable the community to take action.
To sum up, the way forward may be for FTA to recognise that it can play an important role in a complex world in which globalisation
FTA can fulfil its role of supporting actors in society in shaping a common future based on a shared vision among all concerned.
), Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for An Innovative economy, Springer, 2008. C. Cagnin et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 291
R&d Canada, 305 Rideau St.,8th Floor, CJ02 Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1a 0k2 1. Introduction One of the recurring items of feedback from previous FTA Symposia
Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards,
The originators of this survey used the responses to lead a plenary discussion at the 2008 FTA Conference,
/O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 297 3. Big Picture Survey 3. 1. Motivation and approach Up until the Future-oriented technology analysis
(FTA) 2008 Conference, previous FTA meetings tended to focus on methodology, policy linkages and success factors for Foresight design & delivery.
The Scientific Committee of the FTA 2008 Conference heard that some attendees felt that an opportunity had been missed to discuss future Foresight determinants
2. Building on a survey of FTA Conference attendees-experts about critical trends, drivers, shocks-wildcards, discontinuities and weak signals, new insights can be gained about the state of Foresight and future uncertainties,
106 (about 50%of FTA Conference attendees; Respondent Distribution Charts by: years of experience, country of residence and affiliation;(
comprising more than a quarter of the total of all respondents clear evidence of the substantial experience present at the FTA Conference.
Lots of focus on Society and Culture=a well balanced orientation for a FTA audience; Provocative elements explored:
and insights that can be used to guide future Foresight work and additional FTA surveys of this type or building upon this base.
Our primary conclusion is that it will be very useful to repeat the survey with FTA 2010 if possible,
The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: Addressing the Cassandra challenge§Ron Johnston a,,*Cristiano Cagnin b a Australian Centre for Innovation, Australia b European commission, DG Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Spain‘‘Cassandra was a daughter of Hecuba
''1 1 1. Evaluating FTA in the light of recent events This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers.
The setting for the interviews was the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference organised by the EU Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technology studies (IPTS) in Seville in October 2008.
‘‘in the light of recent events, do you believe this indicates FTA has failed (for example to foresee the possibility of the global financial crisis),
or that we need more FTA''.''The responses reflected both the power and limitations of FTA,
and the context in which it operates. For some, the events have been moved so complex so fast,
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers conducted during the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville
Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history.
From this are drawn implications for the community of FTA practitioners. The biggest challenge is to achieve
§This paper is based on interviews with nine leading FTA researchers conducted during the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on October 16 17,2008.
The interviewees were selected on the basis of their long experience with FTA, and the variety of their experience and perspectives.
since the 2006 International Seville FTA Conference had seen significant development in FTA capacity across many countries and regions:‘‘
with the recognition that demonstrating impact is probably the greatest hurdle to the wider acceptance and use of FTA.
A paper by Calof and Smith at the 2008 International Seville FTA Conference 3 concludes‘‘methodology,
Hence, some FTA outputs may enter the reservoir of knowledge where it may be drawn on at some time in the future.
'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,
government officials have been largely resistant to the concept and value of FTA. It does not fit easily with established public administration procedures and protocols.
Hence a major challenge for the next generation of FTA is to shift the emphasis of training from capacity building in performing FTA
and more towards developing a general non-expert awareness of the value of FTA, through courses embedded in school and university curricula,
and benefits of FTA and to help build an FTA culture across society through awareness raising''.
''This diffusion process will be aided by the further development of an‘FTA industry'.'An important lesson for strengthening the impact of fta was drawn fromthe evaluation literature.
and should be pursued, there is a case that at this stage of the evolution of FTA,
the greater emphasis should be on improving the processes that influence impact. 3. The contribution of the FTA Conference A particular feature of the FTA Conference series is that it‘‘acts as a magnet to bring people interested in FTA together
R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 314 The first FTA Conference in 2004 gathered predominantly the EU-US community together to take stock of the developments
and explore future needs for FTA. The focus of the Conference was on foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools.
and Technology analysis & Strategic management 8. The large number of papers submitted in 2008 is an indication both of the central role the FTA Conference has come to play, principally for European researchers but also increasingly for researchers from around the world,
and of the demand for opportunities to report FTA work. A substantial number of new researchers have emerged
apparently recognising that FTA provides an umbrella for the activities they are interested in. Hence it is not just a matter of new researchers entering FTA,
as much as researchers in various other fields identifying with and migrating to the FTA field.
In this scenario, several new applications of FTA have been identified 9. It is important to highlight that an effective Conference can provide a‘showcase'of the field,
providing an opportunity to display and talk up the latest FTA wares to those who may have need a to apply them.
To this end, it is crucial in the future to design and organise the next Conference and its publicity so there is maximum opportunity for those who might apply FTA to their policy
-and decision-making to attend and learn about the latest advances in and applications of FTA.
This would suggest the need for continuing evolution of the format of the conference so as to engage policy-makers directly with issues in
The focus of two sessions of the 2008 FTA Conference on security and sustainability may be a useful first move in this direction.
and in all components of public and private decision-making. 4. Conclusions The interviews conducted as a component of the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16 17 october 2008 provide a clear insight into the current state of the FTA
A clear demonstration of high-impact FTA studies such as the UK coastal flooding 10 and obesity reports 11,
This signals a need for the major focus of FTA to be moved from the twin goals of methodology refinement
and in supporting the linkage between the analysis of the interviews with the overall results of the 2008 FTA Conference.
FTA Conference, Seville, 2008.3 J. Calof, J. Smith, Critical success factors for government led foresight, in:
Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference, Seville, October, 2008, accessible at: http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/prog day1. html. 4 F. Scapolo, E. Cahill, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis, in:
Proceedings of the EU-US Scientific Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, 2004, European communities Technical Report EUR 21473 EN. 5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis:
The 2004 EU-US Seminar, Technological forecasting and Social Change 72 (9)( 2005. 6 Cagnin, et al.
), Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008.7 F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, M. Rader, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.
8 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008.
9 2008 FTA Conclusions written by the Conference's Scientific Committee available at: http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/conclusions. html. 10 UK Foresight programme, Flood and Coastal Defence, 2004, http://www. foresight. gov
Guest editorial FTA break new ground in response to grand challenges Vicente Carabias, Peter De Smedt and Thomas Teichler Abstract Purpose This Guest Editorial aims
and to offer a glimpse into possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA.
Design/methodology/approach This introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 Conference contributions for this Special issue.
Research limitations/implications From a large set of excellent papers presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, only a restricted number of papers could be included in this Special issue highlighting the broad diversity of FTA application fields in response to grand challenges.
Practical implications FTA can contribute not only to the steering of diverse innovation systems, but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges.
Social implications The papers of this Special issue point to the need for FTA to take into account user perspectives
and to shape the social context. Originality/value This Special issue brings together papers that explore not only the opportunities
Keywords Future-oriented technology analysis, FTA, Grand challenges, Forward looking activities T oday's grand challenges from climate change to unemployment go beyond current national policies.
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) held in May 2011 illustrated the existing variety of FTA APPROACHES to address structural
All contributions had in common that they were calling for appropriate forms of FTA to support
In this context, this introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 conference contributions and the diversity of application fields in
Finally, the papers point to the need for FTA to take into account user perspectives and to shape the social context.
FTA techniques need to embrace different perspectives including those considered impossible now and to provide a holistic view.
therefore, explores selected elements of complexity theory and their implications for FTA techniques, and later derives implications for the application of foresight in policy-making.
the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario planning,
The article also examines the prospective perils that systematically applying FTA to Law may bring about.
To sum up, the articles in this special issue demonstrate a variety of FTA application fields and offer a glimpse onto possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA in the coming years.
The scale and direction of innovation is determined by a mix of factors, many specific to a national domain though increasingly less so,
FTA can contribute not only to the steering of innovation systems, but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges.
A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS for transport planning Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer Abstract Purpose As in other socio-technical fields, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA METHODS are used in transport planning
Originality/value The paper has a novel approach for structuring FTA techniques that goes beyond the traditional quantitative/qualitative approach.
and methods that can be allocated to the field of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA, see Scapolo and Porter (2008) for an overview).
In Cagnin and Keenan (2008, p. 4) it is emphasised that FTA is based on principles such as future orientation, evidence, multiplicity of perspectives,
Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Positioning future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analyses.
Scapolo, F. and Porter, A l. 2008),‘New methodological developments in FTA'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analyses:
‘‘embracing emergence''can be seen as very different to many FTA techniques. Horizon scanning for example focuses is on the possible results
The application of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to law: the cases of legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade Abstract Purpose This paper seeks to propose the application of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to law.
As law traditionally reacts after events and is resistant to change and transformation, the article argues for equipping legal activities with a set of tools,
and academic programmes that are already employing FTA methodological approaches to pursue their objectives. Findings Based on these examples
the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario planning,
The article also examines the prospective perils that systematically applying FTA to law may bring about.
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight, forecasting and technology assessmentmethods and tools to the legal sphere.
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight
forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools to the legal sphere. 2. Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)‘‘Future-oriented technology analysis''(FTA) was created the term to encompass the different tools
through the FTA overarching concept and a series of sponsored biennial seminars 4, has provided a common place and platform where various communities dealing with different aspects of future envisioning (such as technology foresight,
''As a comprehensive term, FTA is anchored firmly‘‘in the relation between science and technology on the one hand,
In conceptual terms, the dialogue and the literature produced under the FTA common umbrella term have contributed greatly to the distinction and articulation of the many different methods,
In addition, this particular community of scholars and practitioners has managed also to provide a collective definition of FTA,
FTA, in this respect, has provided not only a common framework through which to define, distinguish and articulate the growing number of instruments, approaches and procedures,
devising a set of principles that define their fundamental characteristics. 3. Law and FTA: case studies 3. 1 Introduction FTA ACTIVITIES, techniques and research have registered an impressive growth over the past decade.
''Furthermore, the number of studies focused on the connection between FTA and the field of social sciences and humanities has increased substantially (Barre'and Keenan, 2008.
They believe‘‘t hese will provide a variety of interpretative lenses that offer the possibility to expand our conceptualisation of FTA,
) Despite these important developments and recommendations, little has been said about the interlinkages between Law and FTA.
In the wide spectrum of sectors, areas, disciplines and contexts to which FTA has been applied and developed,
which FTA should be examined, and would propose that their conceptualisation be expanded to the legal sphere.
one could say that FTA has already been applied to the legal context. This application, however
FTA, in this way, has been used to provide advice and to support the political decision-making process 6 which,
In effect, the use of modelling systems corresponds to one of the most recent trends in FTA.
At a more general level, the increasing availability of information in electronic form and the computing techniques and processes for exploiting such data constitute the most recent methodological developments in the field of FTA.
Futurict and the wide spectrum of ICT improvements and applications that this project encompasses constitute a good example of the new generation of methodological developments that is shaping FTA.
and relevance given to ICT tools in FTA illustrate, moreover, how the techniques used to envision the future have grown in complexity and sophistication. 3. 3. 2‘‘Future-verification''assessments.
''the obligation to perform‘‘future-verification''assessments of longstanding laws may be seen as a possible example of FTA instruments
and officer safety alike. 4. Discussion 4. 1 Advantages of using FTA in law The FTA METHODS
''In this sense, FTA should not only be integrated into legal culture, but also into legal academic curricula. In this respect, it is interesting to note that the famous H g wells,
In effect, the application of this particular ICT-based FTA instrument to Law will enable the development of innovative models for researchers,
Furthermore, the combination of scenario planning with other FTA instruments and methods such as modelling analysis and simulation platforms, brings additional advantages to Law.
and simulation platforms to parliamentary activities of lawmaking processes as another example of a FTA technique applied to Law.
The application of this set of FTA instruments would not only contribute to the process of evaluating the impact of specific laws in society,
FTA can thus contribute to the fulfilment of these two goals, providing the evidence and the empirical data required for this new generation of evidence-based legislative procedures and policy actions,
With the incorporation of FTA instruments, the revision of laws and the design of future ones would be complemented with better quality assessment procedures.
case studies and surveys as the most commonly used approaches (Blind, 2006), FTA would add to this methodological list other approaches that could render the evaluation of current laws,
FTA, in this respect, could also reinforce the development of ex ante impact assessments (the ones performed prior to the enactment of a new legislation,
and other FTA instruments based on ICT procedures. For the sake of clarity, it is important to note that I am not arguing in favour of lawmaking processes based exclusively
Important advantages derived from applying FTA to Law can also be found in the field of law enforcement,
and challenges of using FTA in law. Future research The introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law,
The following section summarises some of the most pressing challenges and problems that the interaction between FTA and Law may bring about,
In this particular, the question one encounters is how to measure the quality and the appropriateness of the legal research based on a specific FTA (determining, for instance,
Given the systemic unpredictability of the future 20, how can FTA-based or oriented laws and legal research be evaluated effectively?
in addition, a problem of FTA per se). The assessed quality of an FTA-based law or research is vital for the consolidation and continuity of this approach,
as otherwise the suggested application of fta to Law may run the risk of losing credibility in the eyes of policy and decision makers. 4. 2. 2 Neutrality and objectivity.
PAGE 346 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. 2. 3 The incorporation of FTA quantitative approaches to law.
The combination of Law and FTA also raises the question (and challenge) of how to keep FTA and Law distinct and separated.
An eventual systematic application of fta to Law runs the risk of blurring the boundaries between Science and Law,
In the case of FTA-based laws would a given piece of legislation be legitimised
such as the ones of FTA, as complementary and supportive instruments of discussion and decision. FTA should help Law
and not transform itself into Law. In this respect, future work should be conducted regarding the boundaries between Science and Law,
Through this analysis, the paper underlines the roles that FTA can play in managing uncertainty
and the limitations of applying FTA to Law. Bearing inmind that the Future is ultimately unpredictable,
It is of utmost importance to apply FTA to Law but we must be aware of the inherent limitations and challenges.
legislative drafting and law enforcement. 2. For a historical review of the development of Future-oriented technology analysis, see Johnston (2008).
For a clarification on the differences and similarities among the wide array of terms, methods and approaches that are included in the umbrella term of FTA, such as technology forecasting, technology assessment, roadmapping, technology foresight,
and prioritizing the future areas of regulation. 6. These were the cases of the future-oriented technology assessment exercises conducted during the period 1974-1995 by the US Office of Technology assessment (OTA).
A concrete example of a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA, namely between scenario and modelling analysis, can be found in the so-called International Futures (IFS.‘‘
For an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with the combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in the field of FTA,
overcoming the epistemic models of FTA that inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past,
furthermore, explores the basic ontological and epistemological concepts that underlie foresight and FTA. 21. Peter De Smedt
''in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin.
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Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. Kahn, H. and Wiener, A j. 1967), The Year 2000:
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