the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes Karel Haegeman A k. Matthias Weber b & Totti Könnölä c a European commission, JRC-IPTS, Edificio EXPO.
the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 729-734, DOI:
the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes A series of conferences on future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) has been organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre over the past years.
These unique conferences have brought together practitioners from three different communities of foresight, forecasting and technology assessment.
The fourth editiio (2011) of the International Seville Conference on Future-Orientedtechnologyanalysis (FTA) focused its attention on processes of transformative change in response to Grand Societal Challennges
and both the need and the potential of FTA to anticipate and shape structural and systemic transformations.
Although earlier conferences had focused in a rather self-reflexive manner on future perspectives for FTA (2004 and the impact of fta on decision-making (2006,2008),
by proposing FTA as a key instrument to help prepare for and tackle Grand challenges. This problem-oriented approach may have been one of the reasons for a further increase in the number of submitted abstracts and participants.
But can FTA really be of help to avoid failure? Or to turn potential threats into opportunities?
the FTA Conference Scientific Committee took the stance that FTAHAS a potentially useful role to play in exploring future developments of complex societal systems and in defining effective policy actions, by way of:
shaping and defining research and innovation agendas (2011 FTA Conference Scientific Committee. 1 An even more basic question raised during the conference relates to
and would need to complement the technological perspective that has dominated traditionally FTA. 2 It is against the background of such transformative changes that this special issue looks at the fundamental possibilities
and limitations of applying FTA to cope with the challenges ahead, and at novel FTA APPROACHES to push the frontier of what can be done to better address them.
and Scapolo (2012) give some responses to these new demands on FTA. They pose a tentative claim that‘FTA
and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovations in organisations and governance',
With a similar line of thought in his keynote at the 2011 FTA Conference, Ollila (2011) from Nokia focused on the future challenges for innovation policy as resulting in particcula from global economic developments.
and by proposing FTA as a key instrument to help prepare for and tackle societal challenges.
First, three contributions explore new avenues of how FTA could be conceived in the future by discussing and elaborating theoretical groundings,
Four further contributions analyse concrete cases of advanced FTA practices in areas that are characterised by high degrees of complexity and uncertainty.
These contributions point to possible future directions to be followed by FTA in order to better cope with Grand challenges. The arguments in the keynote of Ollila are in line with a tendency of the private side to claim that they are prepared better for the future than the public side.
Tuomi kicks off a set of contributions that look more conceptually at how FTA can contribute to identifying
Future-oriented technology analysis frequently fails to grasp socially and economically important technical developments. Tuomi looks at epistemic and ontological causes for this failure, by introducing the idea of‘ontological unpredictability
FTA's greatest obstacle is ignorance. Loveridge and Saritas align with Linestone in that they point to the problem of ignorance,
Their starting point is that FTA deals with phenomenological ignorance of three kinds (known unknowns unknown knowns and unknown unknowns) that give rise to an over-reliance on subjective opinion.
FTA then becomes an imaginative projection of the current knowledge in which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role following Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
and the authors conclude that FTA's practical outcomes are underpinned by subjective opinion in many dimensions.
This tendency is likely to increase as FTA becomes involved with technologies of great social and commercial complexity.
The argument of Loveridge and Saritas that FTA is an imaginative projection of current knowledge is explored further by Van Lente
Vecchiato kicks off a set of four contributions on concrete cases of how FTA is used in addressing compleexit and uncertainty.
using FTA thinking to shape a pathway of a business towards sustainable development. The objective of the framework is to help organisations create a tailored,
as well as a common strategy in their network of relationships, with support of FTA, in order to achieve coherence among network partners in progressing towards higher levels of sustainability.
and opinions on the role of FTA in preparing for Grand challenges. Some common lines of thought seem to emerge around the recognition of fundamental uncertainty
and unpredictability Such notions lead several authors to remind us on the role of FTA to challenge persisting premises on extrapolated futures based on past events.
Notes 1. Call for papers, Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/FTA2011 CALL FINAL. pdf. Last accessed July 2012.2.
The role of FTA in responding to Grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy? Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 135 9. Denning, S. 2005.
Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. Hames, R. 2011b. Feedback on the 2011 international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis.
IPTS internal note. Inayatullah, S. 1998. Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method. Futures 30, no. 8: 815 29.
Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011
The analysis of the nature of ontological unpredictability explains why future-oriented technology analysis and foresight frequently fail to grasp socially and economically important technical developments and clariffie why policy strategy,
influences on future-oriented technology analysis Denis Loveridge a & Ozcan Saritas a a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK Published online:
influences on future-oriented technology analysis, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 753-767, DOI: 10.1080/09537325.2012.715477 To link to this article:
influences on future-oriented technology analysis Denis Loveridge*and Ozcan Saritas Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) deals in phenomenological ignorance
FTA then becomes an imaginative projection of current knowledge in which formal methods/techniques play a subsidiary role followingwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
concluding that FTA's practical outcomes are underlain by human behaviour, subsumed under subjective opinion in many dimensions
and will be more so as FTA becomes involved with technologies of great social and commercial complexity.
future-oriented technology analysis; ignorance; uncertainty; qualitative; quantitattive methods Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic (Arthur C. Clarke) 1. Introduction Is there something phoney about foresight,
a major part of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) or does it really tell us something about the future? What the future holds for the Earth is understood well
What can or does FTA hint may be in store for all the denizens of planet Earth? Or even closer home what may be in store for humanity
Roberts 2012) and uncertainty in underpinning quantitative and qualitative thought in FTA. There is an evident paradox in characterising,
The paper sets out to pay much attention to the situations that may confront FTA practitioners,
this is expanded in Section 3. Section 4 introduces some important issues that are referred to infrequently in FTA,
a core activity in FTA, can be elicited (Section 6) in a way that supports quantitative expression: this relates to the three forms of ignorance referred to.
The paper concludes (Sections 7 and 8) with a further discussion of situations that FTA is likely to face in the future. 2. Getting a feeling for the range of FTA Can the notion of the future as a‘black hole'be contested?
and FTA might have had something to say about the location of the Fukushima nuclear power station and its design,
What contribution ought FTA to have made to planning and building of the Fukushima plant? Did that happen?
Suppose again that an FTA had been requested during the planning of the Fukushima power station where would the expertise have come from to conduct the study?
FTA has a strong role to play in businesses achieving successful continuity through offensive and defensive activities.
It is a major part of FTA to reveal or capture the presence, however brief, of these‘secrets'as they cross the fuzzy boundary of unknown unknowns
this role for FTA is discussed further in the next section. 3. Characteristics of FTA as an umbrella activity FTA focuses on the need and potential to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.
It follows that disruptive change is a prime focus for FTA, a highly contentious statement since many of the most disruptive changes in the Earths'and human history have happened with FTA nowhere to be seen.
The immense disruption caused by the change from an oxygen poor to an oxygen rich atmosphere is one example.
what FTA is about, but when there is talk of‘managing the Earth'for this or that‘grand challenge'(all of
'The direct reference to‘research techniques'accentuates the impression that FTA is approached through an enforced search for techniques to fit perceptions of the work in hand.
However, Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'needs to be constantly in mind to prevent any FTA becoming simply an exercise in technique manipulation that prevents any useful outcome.
FTA's future orientation means that it deals with matters characterised by uncertainty and ignorance:
FTA's premises and principles ought to draw on those fields. Instead FTA seems to draw extensively on
what are believed commonly to be the metaphors from foresight, forecasting and technology assessment: all have a long history and an equally long and growing catalogue of techniques to use:
while a parallel search for a philosophical cum theoretical basis for FTA is pursued outside the cohort of practitioners.
None of these feature overtly in the evolution of FTA where every application makes assumptions about the underlying validity of the processes used.
but to look into the darker corners of the FTA world. The first of these relates to TA
and uncertainties involved revealed in the next section. 4. FTA and subjective behaviour: methodological issues and metaphors FTA assumes that its processes have an innate capability to deal with dynamic situations made up of many interconnected themes, each
of which is characterised by behavioural traits, uncertain opinions and ignorance. How individual subjective opinions invade many aspects of FTA needs some clarification.
Savage (1954) distinguishes between three different interpretations of probabillity objectivistic (frequentist), personalistic (with regard to propositions expressing opinion)
The latter is perhaps less often encountered in FTA than the first two. Frequentist probability does not require explanation:
if it occurs in FTA, it may take the form of the frequency distribution of an adverse drug reaction or something of that kind.
In this way, a relationship between an expert's thinking processes and their representation as a subjective probability distribution can be built by creating a wider appreciation of the situation involved in the FTA.
that arises from the unknown knowns in the FTA team's distribution of knowledge and the depth of it.
For example, FTA is likely to become involved in synthetic biology; nanoscience, nanotechnology and nano-artefacts and their social acceptance;
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 758 D. Loveridge and O. Saritas Throughout FTA,
'a necessary precursor to any FTA to achieve its future orientation. Plausibility is a matter of belief that has its own frequency distribution assessed through probability.
Scenarios are used often to present the quantitative and qualitative output of FTA. Bearing in mind that a scenario is the skeleton of a play
So, it is for scenarios describing the outcome of an FTA. The number of scenarios actually presented is compared infinitesimally small to the entire set.
Historically, the focus of FTA has been on technology. Its purpose now is to set technology in the context of socioeconomic matters, ecology, politics and human values/norms of the STEEPV set.
in framing the context of any FTA. Questioning quantitative data to understand its genesis needs to occupy a prime place in FTA.
How often the nature of measurements is dissected according to the NUSAP2 system (Funtowicz and Ravetz 1990),
The literature relating to the methods used in FTA will not be reviewed but the next section necessarily sets out briefly their relation to the purpose of the paper, namely the influence of ignorance and uncertainty on FTA. 5. Quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA In a sense,
FTA is related to operations management. It was in that field that Meredith et al. 1989) developed the two-dimensional framework shown in Figure 1. Meredith's notions can help FTA practitioners'position methods to guide their role and use.
Figure 1 sets out compactly the influence of knowledge, and conversely of ignorance, on the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance
and uncertainty 759 Direct observation of objective reality People's perceptions of objective Reality Artificial reconstruction of objective Reality Axiomatic Reason/logic/theorems Normative modelling
Interpretive FTA studies people rather than objects critical theory attempts to synthesise the positivist and interpretive perspectives
At the artificial pole, FTA uses highly abstracted and simplified models such as linear representations tends to yield conclusions with high reliability
FTA is concerned with real phenomena less concerned with reliability and more with externally generalisable validity closer to reality less controllable and less efficient.
The references to‘truth'in the matrix are not relevant as FTA depends on subjective opinion, expressed probabilistically, which is influenced heavily by the notions of ignorance.
for use in the different conditions applying in FTA: these have already been indicated above. Meredith et al.'
these judgements place less Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 761 emphasis on philosophical matters and more on practical ones of concern in FTA,
The first step in the practical use of the framework is to understand that FTA strives to identify:
FTA knowledge is: Not verifiable experimentally in the scientific mode Highly uncertain and complex, particularly relating to the existence of causal relationships Able to create the basis for visions of the future based on common ground among participants Action oriented in terms of identifying threats,
Multi-disciplinary by definition FTA develops understanding of systems and situations in time and space through people's perceptions (a basis for opinions);
In its context, FTA helps to develop hypotheses as to how present situations may evolve into the future,
The next section illustrates how knowledge relevant to FTA can be elicited showing the practical implications of many of the issues raised above. 6. Combining quantitative
the broad range of sciences and technologies that any FTA has to be able to cope with:
Elicitation of opinions and combining them is a central feature in FTA. The following example illustrates how this can be Done for the sake of simplicity,
known unknowns and unknown knowns enter into the practical steps of elicitation of subjective opinioon on which the success or otherwise of FTA rests.
These matters are likely to become ever more important as FTA moves into the complex situations discussed in the next section.
and O. Saritas 7. Future influences on FTA All the foregoing has lain within the conventional boundaries of FTA
So far, FTA has stuck to familiar approaches to what it does and its intentions. Whether these can be sustained as‘fit for purpose'is another matter.
Currentftacomponents of foresight, forecasting and TA are simply not able to cope with the welter of information now available to anyone with the wit to look for it nor is FTA able to cope with the increasing complexity of the tasks it faces, often with very significant political interventions and implications.
FTA is heavily dependent on opinion and the use of quantitative data that needs verification and due diligence (e g. following the lines of NUSAP (Funtowicz
Increasing computer power may have some wide and unconventional influences on FTA. In 1983, Loveridge was only the then latest person to raise questions along the following lines:‘
'More advanced search engines and massively fast computers, with architectures not unlike the human brain, are likely to change data mining out of all recognition possibly specifying how FTA should be conducted.
the‘learning the language'aspect of FTA will become correspondingly arduous but essential. The role of computation and of algorithms will become accentuated.
Skills in understanding what algorithms do in producing FTA outcoome becomes essential for presentation to the polity for discussion
At the same time, the ever decreasing dimensional scale of artefacts means that FTA will become involved in knowledge of measurements
is another aspect that FTA may be expected legitimately to fulfil. Finally in this brief look, not into the unknown future,
processes and artefacts that are now firmly in the social frame where FTA might be expected to be concerned.
and will face FTA with a new world of expectations of a form of social control of technology. 8. Epilogue In conclusion,
1) FTA's greatest obstacle is ignorance. The best that the three components of FTA can do is to identify the‘known unknowns'and the‘unknown knowns'.
'Nothing could have identified the‘unknown unknowns'that were present in the recent Japanese earthquake. In that sense, Derrida's argument is unassailable:
and cannot say anything about the future (2) The presence of ignorance in all its manifestations needs to be constantly in mind enabling any FTA to be framed
and O. Saritas (3) FTA needs to embrace not the notions of knowledge but of ignorance,
To search for a philosophical cum theoretical basis to underlie FTA seems to be limited of value.
Each FTA project makes assumptions about the underlyyin validity of the processes used: deferring to notions of philosophy
Consequently, FTA needs to dwell more on the nature of individual expertise that enables some individuals to stretch out their appreciation of a situation
in all its STEEPV components, towards that fuzzy‘event horizon'beyond which lie the unknown unknowns (6) The quantitative data that features in FTA do not escape from behavioural influences in its transformation into information
so that its‘certainties'are fraught with the uncertainties of expertise (7) There is the temptation to believe that hugely increased computational power will take FTA into a Kurzwellian era in
which FTA may be conducted by means that‘fence'with unknown unknowns, the known unknown category having been banished by algorithmic searches through immense unstructured but interconnected sets of databases.
In Second international Seville seminar on future oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, Theme 2 FTAEVALUATION, Impact and Learning, September 28 29, Seville, 12 pp.
FTA and equity: New approaches to governance. Futures 43, no. 3: 279 91. Coates, V.,M. Farooque, R. Klavans, K. Lapid, H. A. Linstone, C. Pistorius,
Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective. Futures 43, no. 3: 265 78.
Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 267 9. Havas, A. 2003.
Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 267 9. Christensen, C. M. 1997.
In Future-oriented technology analysis, strategic intelligence for an innovative economy, ed. C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo,
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnin a b & Denis Loveridge c a DG Joint research
Cristiano Cagnin & Denis Loveridge (2012) A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 797-820, DOI:
8 september 2012,797 820 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnina, b*and Denis Loveridgec adg Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological
using future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking to shape the business's path towards sustainable development. The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships.
with the support of FTA, achieving influence among their partners to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development,
FTA and complex ecosystems 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking is used in an explanation and a model of how companies create enduring continuity needed for sustainable development (Brundtland 1987).
Embedding FTA within the proposed management dynamic framework enables business networks to develop their sympoietic system capability, through interactions and inclusive dialogue,
with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 799 represented by a triple-bottom-line balance or the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within the network.
and what roles can FTA play as well as how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability?
The proposed management framework and the roles that FTA can play are introduced then comparing networks to complex sympoietic systems.
they need to be integrated to be considered as‘primary'for the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
3. 2. Basis for the management framework and roles that FTA can play The proposed management framework aims to support the achievement of a business with aligned socioeconomic environmental performance across its network that helps firms develop a participaativ process throughout to shape a common vision of sustainable development
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 803 The development of effective and lasting partnerships is critical,
which includes the need for an inclusive dialogue approach with all stakeholders in the network with FTA permeating all processes:
Moreover, FTA supports one to deal with complexity (Saritas 2006) to process and interpret weak signals, wild cards (Amanatidou et al. 2012;
Hence, FTA plays a significant role in anticipating and managing disruptive and transformattiv changes and does so by providing spaces for mutual appreciation,
The anticipatory role of FTA allows an inclusive debate of possible and desirable futures and articulation of visions and expectations needed to reach a common goal
Table 2 outlines the main roles that FTA can play within such a framework. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 804 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 2. Contributions of FTA.
Management system FTA roles Decide to be in business FTA supports mutual learning and shared understanding of network actors'views and feelings as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes, all of
which are critical to achieve a common vision of sustainable development as well as to mobilise and coordinate resources Design the business FTA as a source of strategic intelligence provides insights into possible and desirable directions
and works as a source of trust as well as of transparency and legitimacy of options and decisions, clarifying the pros
and resources to be prioritised Run the business FTA creates spaces for experimentation, learning and mutual appreciation, for the development of new or improved linkages and networks,
and new configurations Sustain the business FTA enables the network to continue to exist in the long run by enabling it to behave as a complex living system as actors interact
Businesses organise themselves to achieve these ends through activities under the rubric FTA but these are not an all-important part
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 805 Foresight cannot remove the uncertainties any business faces
In these ways, FTA can lead to the development of new (or enhanced) networks or linkages (stronger interactioons with the achievement of common ground, joint visions and enhanced responsiveness among the network members.
In these different ways, FTA can and does contribute to a business's successful continuity.
FTA cannot remove the uncertainty that surrounds its contribution to or nature of sustainable development in the wider context of its supporting network and society as a whole.
The Maturity Model is an attempt to build FTA's contributions to a structure heavily dependent on the flow of ideas, data and information into a business and its network decision-making in its place in society.
inter-group learning-Values (universal principles) embedded in every process Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
functional silos removed (information flow)- Systemic processes/systems Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
environmental and social performance along the network. 4. Management framework The proposed management framework emphasises the creative aspect of living systems where FTA is key to enable the kind of dialogue
FTA is embedded in the management framework to facilitate inclusive dialogue across the network, enabling actors to anticipate
according to Tuomi (2011), is critical to address some of the epistemic and ontological assumptions that underlie much of the current FTA practice.
Hence, embedding FTA within the proposed management framework enables a network to develop its sympoietic system capability:
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 811 Table 4. Business sustainability management framework. s e i t i v i t C a-b U s s e i t
i v i t C a s e g a t S Stakeholder participation Based on Inclusive Dialogue and Continuous learning enabled through FTA Decide to be in business Defining
Through its components (foresight, forecasting and technology assessment), FTA has an undeniably arduous role to play.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 813 Boden, M.,C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman,
Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 140 52.
Future-oriented technology analysis strategic intelligence for an innovative economy. Heidelberg: Springer. Cagnin, C, . and T. Könnölä. Forthcoming. Global foresight:
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and D. Loveridge Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
whom and how Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
and Continuous learning through FTA Decide to be in business It is the stage of thinking
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