Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis K. Matthias Weber1,,*Jennifer Cassingena Harper2, Totti Ko nno la 3 and Vicente Carabias Barcelo'4 1ait Austrian Institute of technology, Department of Foresight & Policy development, Donau-City
Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA ACTIVITIES from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building.
The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations.
external FTA services, the institutionalisation of FTA, and FTA networks, whilst recognising that in practice these types are complementary.
In empirical terms this requires further investigation, in order to understtan how different combinations of activities actually operate in their respective decision-making contexts.
It is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised FTA can form part of customised solutions for building capacity to handle disruptions.
future-oriented technology analysis; disruptions; institutionalisation. 1. Introduction Increasingly dynamic processes of change and sudden disrupptiv developments are becoming the norm rather than the exception.
Current practices of FTA require transformation through effective embedding of FTA in a user context of governance structures
Van Rij 2010) together with the downscaling of national exercises and the embedding of FTA functions in organisations and their respective decision-making structures and processes.
In order to conduct a systematic analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of different organisational models of FTA,
We propose an approach which frames the wider societal requirements for FTA within specific forms of FTA systems,
FTA systems cover three levels of elements and the interdependencies between them namely:.the individual capabilities and mindsets to anticipate change in fast-changing environments;.
the institutional and organisational setup of FTA;.the institutional context and modes of governance in which FTA is embedded.
In order to focus on the organisational and institutional aspects of FTA systems, the individual level of analysis will not be addressed in this paper.
This simplified conceptual frame allows consideration of variants of FTA and their effectiveness in tackling a range of futures and related needs.
A typology of future requirements to be addressed by FTA, including exploration of the future and preparednees for the unknown, will be developed.
Drawing on recent experiences with alternative models of FTA systems, solutions will be identified based on a combinattio of social
organisational and technological innovations at the three levels of FTA systems, to make FTA fit for the challenges of the future.
Against this conceptual background the four guiding questions addressed in the subsequent sections are:.What areas and types of transformations will require anticipatory action?
And what kinds of requirements for FTA result from these?.What kinds of models for FTA systems exist?
How can they be systematised in conceptual terms?.What kinds of developments can we observe in terms of how these models are used in practice?.
Section 2 addresses the first two questions, including also the future conceptual requirements for FTA systems that are likely to emerge,
and the types of organisational models and governance contexts that make up FTA systems. Section 3 will draw primarily on recent empirical research presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, 1
which will be analysed using the dimensions and categories of the conceptual framework in order to identify emerging patterns and issues.
Capturing new types of FTA systems in the light of specific circumstances This section introduces the conceptual framework for subseqquen analysis of recent empirical research on FTA systems.
Different types of contextual transformations that pose challenges for FTA systems are identified, taking into account the wider institutional setting and co-evolution of different governance modes.
and organisational models of FTA) a conceptual frame is developed for analysis in the empirical part of this paper. 2. 1 The fast-changing context:
and ongoing processes of transformation and the need to use FTA to move towards more deliberate, proactive approaches to transformation.
In the context of this intricate web of disruptive, natural and planned transformations FTA has a critical role to play in defining effective policy responses.
expertise and other resources required for effective policy responses. 2. 2 FTA systems and modes of governance FTA systems form an active part of the institutional context
and governance structures managing systemic and structural transformations. This relationship with the governance context demarcates how FTA systems evolve
and drive the anticipatory capabilities in society. Ko nno la et al. 2009) derive four modes of governance from argumeent that build on cultural theory (Tukker and Butter Figure 1. Identified types of transformations.
FTA systems both affect and are affected by shifts in governance modes. The integration mode is likely to lead to the implementation of normative approaches that support common vision-building and priority setting.
Such dynamics call for further research into the design of tailored FTA systems which are fit for purpose. 2. 3 FTA systems
and organisational models of FTA In defining our conceptual framework, three ideal-type organisational models for FTA can be identified,
taking into account the speed of change and types of responses generated, namely:.individual FTA projects or programmes of limited duration and with targeted objectives;.
dedicated FTA units providing continuous input to their embedding or mother organisations;.FTA networks as informal yet stable settings allowing the bundling or coordination of resources and competencies. 2. 3. 1 Projects and programmes as external FTA services.
Setting up dedicated and temporary FTA projects or programmes has been a very common model over the past two decades.
Driven by the need to explore certain technological, economic or societal developments of major concern to decision-makers,
FTA ACTIVITIES are geared largely to deliver specific responses to specific questioons Most national Delphi (cf. Cuhls 2001;
Programmes and projects usually require access to extensive FTA expertise outside the client organisation. A landscape of research
In other words, if the institutionalisation of FTA on the user side is low a well-developed set of specialised organisations must be in place on the supplier side to generate FTA results. 2. 3. 2 Institutionalisation of FTA.
There is an emerging stream of FTA ACTIVITY geared to providing future-oriented knowledge for decision-making on a more continuous Figure 2. Modes of governance (modified from Thompson et al. 1990.
and the need for faster delivery of FTA results to policy and decisionmakking The rediscovery of parliamentary technology assesssmen (TA) is also a sign of renewed interest in institutionalised forms of TA (cf.
The institutionalisation of FTA provides continuity and permits the accumulation of knowledge and know-how in a single organisational unit.
for instance in the case of external FTA organisation that provide semi-institutionalised FTA services (e g. parliamentary TA organisations,
However, in principle institutionalised FTA has the advantage of being embedded firmly further in policy and decision-making:
and gives access to insider knowledge of the embedding organisation that allows them to bring their FTA insights fully to bear
but could provide a fast-response capability which would be crucial in times of crisis. An advantage of FTA institutions is their visibility,
Too close relationships with the potential users in private or public organisations may inhibit the critical function that FTA should have shared (a problem with external FTA service providers who depend strongly on their clients.
and potential disruptions that are not yet at the top of the current policy agendas. 2. 3. 3 FTA networks.
In FTA, networks can relate to individuals, and are enabled peer-to-peer through information technology and the internet (cf.
As an organisational model, networks are complementary to FTA institutions and programmes/projects, interconnecctin FTA knowledge hubs and providing smaller organissation with limited FTA capacity access to a wider
Institutionalised FTA supports the process of defining the vision and the route Co-ordination mode of governance.
Networked FTA Competition mode of governance. Optimising the market conditions. Competing visions and action plans to cope with transformations.
Fragmented FTA Co-existence mode of governance. Reactive wait-and-see until new opportunities. Focus on resilience, not on visions.
Reduced FTA Coping with a fast-changing world. 157 FTA units or research and consulting units that can serve as network nodes.
Networks have a strong potential to enhance the visibility and coherence of FTA, but there have been only very few cases of networks being able to tackle the consequences of,
and strategies for, handling disruptive and structural transformations. 2. 4 Framework for analysis of FTA systems The three dimensions introduced in the previous sections constitute the conceptual framework for analysing the suitabiilit of different types of FTA systems
which raise quite different requirements for FTA systems as defined by the two other dimensions of our framework.
Institutions, networks and external services are regarded as the main organisational models for implementing FTA and constitute the second main dimension.
organisational model and governance mode need to be compatible with each other. 3. Diversity of FTA systems in practice Against this backdrop,
it is important to develop a better understanding of how FTA can provide a solution to building an anticipatory capacity in a climate of high societal uncertainty and complexity.
including those presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, address the challenge of transformation, FTA organisation and governance modes,
with the aim of teasing out the main trends in how FTA is evolving in practice.
In Section 3. 2 we focus on the interplay between these dimensioons explaining why the observed trends are plausible
and thus provide an indication of how FTA might further evolve if the challenge of transformations persists.
and disruptive developmeent represent the most recent shift in the evolution of FTA. With regard to the rationales underlying the evolutiio of FTA,
three main stages can be distinguished. First, the traditional and best established forms of FTA focus on the anticipation of rather gradual change that may require adjustments of how innovation systems are wired up'and what thematic,
often science and technology priorities should be addressed in these. FTA along these lines was need in of updates at regular intervals of three to five years
implying that individual projects or programmes were the most suitable form for addressing FTA tasks.
More recently, the scope of the problems and issues to be tackled by FTA has been expanding.
Broader socioeconomic questions have complemented scientific technological ones, but the focus of attention has remained on research and innovation (R&i) policies,
Projects and programmes continued to be the dominant form of implementing FTA, complemennte by the need to enhance networking to access knowleedg in other domains of society.
What we can see emerging against the background of a new rationale for FTA namely to address the entire R&i ecology
A much higher degree of policy coordination seems to be needed to address societal challennge as well as a much more continuous and‘embedded'approach to FTA.
By looking into the latest developments in how FTA systems understood as combination of governance modes
and organisational models of FTA have evolved in practice and allow responndin to novel challenges (see Table 3),
we want to explore the direction in which FTA is likely to evolve in the future. 3. 1 Emerging developments in FTA systems This section looks at how emerging developments in FTA deal with challenges of transformative change,
by analysing recent contributions to the literature as presennte at the 2011 FTA Conference. The analysis identifies the types of transformations addressed, the governance modes in
which FTA is embedded and the organisational Table 2. Framework for analysis of FTA systems Dimensions Transformation types Organisational models of FTA Governance modes Sub-categories.
the FTA conferences3 repressen focal points for addressing issues of how FTA is embedded in governance processes,
and are thus a good indicator of ongoing developments in FTA. The analysis of the selected papers on FTA attests to the richness of approaches in relation to different types of transformatiions governance modes
and consequent models on organising FTA ACTIVITIES (see Table 4). Our analysis of the selected papers indicates an increasing emphasis in FTA objectives on improved understanndin of transformations.
Furthermore there seems to be considerable richness of foci to different types of transformaations In a number of exercises the methods aim to explore
This indicates that FTA has potential to support‘policy mix'(demand -and supply-side) approaches and the comprehensive analysis of possible measures in view of their combined effects on differren governance modes.
which FTA is conducted by way of exploring what happens in the innovation system before and after FTA is conducted.
Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin (2012) have illustrated that when a governmental organisation decides to use FTA METHODS,
In a search for effective organisational forms of FTA systems, the papers presented at the 2011 FTA Conference call for a stocktaking of diverse forms of FTA ACTIVITIES
and for establishing FTA functions in the organisations or innovation systems compatible with the underpinning culture, institutional conditions and availabbl capacities and resources.
Such observations lead to diverse forms of organisational setups for FTA. Along similar lines, Weber et al.
2011) have analysed types of Table 3. Changing rationales for FTA APPROACHES on FTA systems Dimensions Transformation types and consequent challenges Governance modes Organisational models of FTA Traditional
rationales for FTA. Anticipate gradual changes and support deliberate policies for transitions.‘‘Wiring up the innovation system'.
Programmes and projects Recent rationales for FTA. Early identification of emerging issues and consequuen trends and transitions in society.
Enhancing coordination in research through FTA. Evidence-based, joined-up R&i policy. Consensus-building and effectiiv engagement of civil society.
Networking to address open innovation Emerging rationales for FTA. Improving the robustness and dynamics of the R&i ecology to address (global) disruptions and engineer breakthroughs.
Enhancing policy coordination through FTA. Joint visioning and programming. Policy coordination, in addition to research coordination. Contextualisation/embedding by approaches that are tailored to particular contexts:
They argue that external FTA services are useful if there is a clear objective of the service,
whereas institutionalised forms of FTA are more suitable under unstable political conditions and in situatiion with a high level of fluctuation.
The majority of the paper presented at the 2011 FTA Conference, despite reporting on experiences derived from a single foresight exercise, indicate increasing evidence of institutionalised forms of FTA.
The institutionalisation of FTA seems to generate intense discussion on the benefits and drawbacks of stronger integration in the policy processes.
For instance there is a risk of cooptation of incumbent positions rather than exploring novel alternatives for decision-making.
In another example of embedded FTA, Calof (2012) as well as Calof et al. 2012) report on the setting up of foresight units within several departments at the federal level in Canada.
In essence, we can conclude that the horizontal convergence of FTA competencies is what is called for,
in order to help FTA move closer to decision-making. As a consequence, the absorptive capacity in decision-making bodies needs to be enhanced,
Networks of FTA practice generate a range of positive impacts particularly in engaging external, often internatioonal experts in FTA.
Tiits and Kalvet (2011) learned from recent foresight exercises in Estonia that the Table 4. Diversity of FTA systems in practice Approaches in FTA systems Transformation types Governance modes Organisational models
of FTA‘Constructing systemic transformattio capacities in a research technology organisation: Applying diversified roadmap concept'Ahlqvist et al.
Emphasis on coordination mode and its interactions with other governance modes Institutionalisation of FTA needs to be combined with network structures to attain:
and gradual transformations Searches balance between coordinaatio and integration modes of governance Institutionalised forms of FTA need to be interconnected,
and networked organissatio of FTA systems Ko nno la et al. 2012b)‘ Implementing systemic RTI priorities:
International cooperaation in particular when assisted by FTA networks, can raise awareness among policy-makers and other stakehollder and help to validate foresight processes
To conclude, the alignment of FTA with decisionmakkin and the coordination mode of governance prevail in RECENT FTA despite the considerable richness of foci on different types of transformations and methodologgica choices and organisational setups for FTA.
Furthermore our analysis shows increasing evidence of institutionalised forms of FTA and exploitation of FTA networks to provide agile and strategic support for decision-making. 3. 2 Reflecting on the way forward with FTA systems The above review of recent research work indicates a consideerabl diversity of FTA APPROACHES and systems with coexisting diverse
forms and types of transformations, modes of governance and organisational models. A number of crosscutting observations can be drawn on the current evolution of FTA, on emerging requirements and possible responses to them. 3. 2. 1 Observation 1:
Emerging requirement profiles for FTA systems. The increasingly dynamic global and national context implies a greater breadth
and depth of functions to be provided by FTA systems, which in turn requires tailored approaches and highly specific skills.
Embedded and networked FTA facilities are particularly suitable to fulfil the following functions for innovation policy4 in such a dynamic context:.
Early warning of disruptive events and scientific/technological breakthrough and their likely impacts in scope and time.
In order to realize this function, horizonscanning centres or units at national, regional and international level are emerging.
Local, regional and national FTA networks, cutting across different policy areas, can support an appropriate level of policy coordination to anticipate
Worldwide and regional (European) networks of the FTA units in international organisations, national and at least for some grand challenges regional (subnational) governments, business and nongovernmental organisations are providing an organisaationa solution to share policy perspectives
and challenges can be addressed by combinations of governance contexts and appropriate organisational models of FTA. 3. 2. 2 Observation 2:
Networked approaches to FTA have been growing in importance for several years, and this trend is likely to continue as part of a comprehensive package of elements for dealing with transformative change,
A shift towards institutionalisation of FTA could be observed, as reflected, for instance, in the creation of new dedicated horizonscanning centres, the strengthening of parliamentary technology assessment offices and the establishment of dedicated foresight units in firms and public administration.
There are many reasons for this move from projects and programmes to institutionalised forms of FTA.
Institutionalised FTA capacities are required to support this type of coordination. As a consequence, there is a growing need to embed this anticipatory capacity in policy and decision-making quickly,
Embedding FTA in organisattion is regarded as a vehicle to make them more anticipattor and adaptive to enable a continuous,
and the accumulation of FTA knowledge needed to translate advice into political and administrative decision-making.
Growing flexibility of FTA systems. FTA in support of organisations'and institutioons embedding in decision-making is needed in the light of a fast-changing turbulent environment.
Institutions are confronted with greater complexity and uncertainty in their context. The fast pace of technological change and the complexity of its societal repercussions make the interpretation of contextual developments very difficult.
Different models of FTA systems can be complementary in many respects. Service providers as well as FTA instituttion need to be able to draw on networks for many purposes,
and the boundaries between service provision and institutionalised forms of FTA are blurring. Exploring the balance between these three forms of FTA ACTIVITIES in empirical terms helps to improve our understanndin of how effectively different combinations of activities work in their respective decision-making context and governance modes.
Whether a specific model of FTA is appropriate for a transformative problem or not strongly depends on the wider institutional and organisatioona environment in
which FTA is embedded, be it in the private or the public sector. Ultimately, an intelligent combinaatio of FTA models needs to be put at the disposal of decision-makers,
with projects and programmes providing targeted inputs, networking approaches delivering the 162. K. M. Weber et al. most recent information on weak signals,
and FTA instituttion coordinating and integrating the different inputs in order to deliver advice quickly to policy-makers.
Thus, emerging forms of FTA facility are tending towards more embedded, internationally networked and multifunctional setups to respond to these challenges and address various needs both reactively and proactively.
This form of combined FTA capacity includes elements of traditioonal current and emerging rationales as identified in Table 3. The specific structures for realizing this range of FTA functions will vary
and are likely to change in time, influenced by the needs and constraints imposed by novel developments such as the current economic and financial crisis.
and Joint Programming tends to favour such flexible arrangements for realizing FTA. 4. Conclusions This paper has explored FTA responses to a highly dynamic environment where disruptive events highlight the fragility of governance systems.
In response to these systemic and structural transformations, FTA systems play a critical anticipatory and early warning capacity-building role,
In turn three organisation models of FTA are identified: short-term projects and programmes, dedicated embedded FTA units,
and networks of bundled facilities. Based on this, a framework of analysis was developed for tracing the evolution of FTA systems.
Empirical research highlights a diversity of FTA APPROACHES and systems in practice, which reflect the differren mixes of transformations, governance and organisatioona modes.
The complementarity between models of FTA is apparent with service providers and FTA units drawing on networks, blurring the divide between the two.
In general, the shift from short-term projects and programmes to institutionalised forms of FTA is due to the demanding policy environment
and the need for more proactive approaches to address pressing global challennges Institutions face greater complexity and difficulty in providing solutions on time,
This heralds a new generation of FTA systems, reflecting a stronger emphasis on flexibility, networking and institutionalisation,
enabling delivery of a combination of different FTA instruments and allowing more customised responses to disruptive and transformatiiv changes.
The question that arises from these observations on the possible future evolution of FTA is whether or not these types of developments will be sufficient to cope with the challenges of transformative and disruptive changes.
FTA can produce a better understanding of the overall landscape. By doing so, it can provide guidance on how to develop adaptive capabilities to enhance resilience
in order to prepare and sensitise for using FTA in preparation of structural changes, and to prepare firms and governments accordingly.
but also to the FTA systems that are already in place. There is a need Coping with a fast-changing world. 163 to invest in iterative processes of assessment
and monitoriin in order to ensure that FTA systems can address fast-changing requirements of the future.
because the 2011 FTA Conference was explicitly dealing with disruptions and how to deal with them from the side of FTA.
Due to the broad coverage of the conference, the contributions can be regarded as reflecting the current state of the debate.
FTA Conferences on<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta. html>accessed 15 dec 2011.4. FARHORIZON Innovation policy Workshop (Weber and Georghiou 2010) and ERAPRISM Policy Dialogue Brief on Innovation policy (Georghiou and Harper 2010),<http://farhorizon. portals. mbs. ac. uk
'Paper presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, held 12 13 may, Seville, Spain.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011.
Cagnin, C.,Amanatidou, E. and Keenan, M. 2012)‘ Orienting European Innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play',Science and Public policy, 39: 140 52.
2011)‘ From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis',Futures, 43: 229 31. Joos, W.,Carabias, V.,Winisto rfer, H. and Stu cheli, A. 1999)‘ Social aspects of public waste management in Switzerland',Waste Management, 19: 417 25.
'Paper presented at the FTA 2011 Conference held 12 13 may, Seville, Spain.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011.
'Paper presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, held 12 13 may, Seville, Spain.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011.
'Paper presented at the FTA 2011 Conference held 12 13 may, Seville, Spain.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011.
'paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain, 12 may 2011.
Haegeman, K.,Scapolo, F.,Ricci, A.,Marinelli, E. and Sokolov, A. in press)‘ Quantitative and qualitative approaches in FTA:
amana@otenet. gr. Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action
futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;
These issues were complemented with additional issues from the FTA 2008 conference survey. 3 3. 2 Assessment of issues The formulated issues were assessed in an online survey by some 270 external experts who represented foresight practitiooners
and to turn these into opportunities by embedding FTA in their decision-making processes. 3. 5 Reflections on the exercise Overall,
2012) consider three ideal-type models for FTA, namely:.individual projects or programmes of limited duration and with targeted objectives. dedicated units providing continuous input to their embedding
2008 on Future-oriented technology analysis a‘big picture'survey was conducted on trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals likely to share the future (Saritas and Smith 2011).
Experiences on an innovation platform in European agenda setting'in Proceedings of the FTA 2011 Conference, Seville,<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/>accessed 26 september 2011.
Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis',Science and Public policy, 39: 153 66. Weick, K. 1995) Sensemaking in Organizations.
For this, we need first of all to look at the Fraunhofer Society itself. 3. The Fraunhofer approach 3. 1 Strategic R&d planning within the Fraunhofer governance model Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES have been used within corporate strategic R&d planning at Fraunhofer for several years.
FTA in this context supports Fraunhofer's strategic R&d planning. Hence, it needs to be oriented action
FTA as part of the strategic planning of a distributed contract research organisation',paper presented at Third International Seville Conference on FTA, held Seville, Spain, 16 7 october 2008.
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