any deployment of future oriented technology analysis (FTA) must be able to take into account trans-border, often global considerations.
This paper addresses FTA and in particular foresight design and management in an international context. The aim is to draw lessons for international foresight processes on the basis of a specific international foresight project on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems.
an international FTA project addressing the future of intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS). Section 4 outlines the lessons learned from the authors'experiences in designing
how FTA projects like IMS hold out the promise of achieving better international coordination and joint preparedness for future grand challenges.
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer-verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008.11 T. Ko nno la, K. Haegeman, Embedding foresight in transnational research programming, Science and Public policy 39
(2)( 2012) 191 207.12 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA and equity: new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (3)( 2011.
) 219 235.17 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) 140
Poster presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, 2011.29 V. Brummer, T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, Foresight within era nets:
Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: Impact on policy and decision-making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR Fabiana Scapolo a,, Alan L. Porter b c, d, Michael Rader e a European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Brussels, Belgium b R&d for Search Technology, Inc
Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe Institute of technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Received 29 february 2008 Introduction The contributions included in this special issue build on material presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
This International Seminar was founded on the success of the joint EU US Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) that was organised by JRC-IPTS in 2004.
This biannual event is becoming a reference within the FTA COMMUNITIES to increase understanding of the advances occurring in the field of FTA for academics
1 The FTA acronym refers to strategic foresight, forecasting and technology assessment. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.03.001 The six articles included in this Special issue were presented in 2006.
2 placing emphasis on the delivery of valued policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES. 1. FTA assumptions,
methods and approaches Four of the six contributions address a specific theme of the Seminar on the evolution over the years of FTA assumptions, methods and approaches.
and vary from concerns with the take-up of FTA knowledge in policy and decision processes, through to organisational vision-building,
http://ec. europa. eu/research/era/index en. html. 2 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/intro. html. 458 F
and outlook. 2. FTA evaluation, impact and learning Another very important theme addressed by the FTA 2006 International Seminar relates to FTA evaluation, impact and learning.
The objective of tackling this issue was to address sponsor concerns for better accounts of demonstrable impacts.
For example, knowledge generated through the application of fta methods, FTA as a process of coproduuctio of stakeholder communities (i e. social capital),
and FTA as a collective learning mechanism through the sequential interplay between codified and tacit knowledge could be examined
and goal attainment levels. 3. FTA on specific issues Two themes of the 2006 FTA International Seminar put FTA into contexts.
The two issues are FTA in a business context and FTA on Higher education. The objective of the first was to collect knowledge,
For FTA on Higher education, the objective was to stimulate forwardlookking strategic reflections and vision-building on universities.
These stem from an address4 given by The chair and a Member of the Technical Committee of the 2006 FTA Seminar
It is becoming evident that FTA is a useful tool to facilitate, inform and improve policy-making.
The way forward for FTA lies in the accumulation of experience that has to be evaluated carefully and validated.
it is important that FTA practitioners understand the policy-making process. This could be achieved by adapting and fine-tuning FTA ACTIVITIES to fit particular context and clients.
and decision-making requires addressing the cloudy world of the relationship of knowledge to power. 4 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/conclusions. html. 460 F. Scapolo et al./
Why‘open innovation'is old wine in new bottles, International Journal of Innovation Management 13 (2009) 715 736.3 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA
Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer-verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 71 87.5 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, International Journal of Foresight
and Innovation policy (IJFIP) 1 (2004) 4 32.6 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:
Paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), Seville, 12 13,may 2011. K. De Moor et al./
Performance measurement systems FTA Strategy Implementation A b s T R A c T Despite the growing number of publications on firms'performance measurement systems (PMS), consensus
they highlight that the inclusion of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) would have prevented some of the failures experienced.
FTA is seen as crucial in linking strategy and operations with a long-term vision of where a firm sees itself in the future.
In this regard, FTA holds the promise to embed critical aspects for jointly shaping common directions to follow across a firm's value chain.
The authors conclude by highlighting specific ways in which FTA can be integrated in the PMS proposed. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
FTA is suggested therefore, in Section 4, as a possible instrument to deal with such shortcomings
we argue that embedding FTA in the system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
And these are characteristics intrinsic to FTA, which must then be embedded in the proposed system to enable an effective connection between strategy and implementation across the value chain. 4. Roles of fta FTA and its elements of strategic foresight,
forecasting and technology assessment can play a number of important roles in linking a firm's strategy to its implementation across the value chain.
by embedding FTA in the proposal. FTA has a long tradition in creating spaces for dialogue
and in engaging different actors to confront views, learn from one another, and agree on a path to follow.
At the same time, FTA is considered to contribute to enhanced governance modes that improve the performance of innovation systems 41.
or networked learning (facilitated through FTA). They affirm that networked learning enables a process of innovation and institutional adaptation that is participatory, interactive and in
FTA supports one to deal with complexity 47 to process and interpret weak signals, wild cards 48,49 and alternative options 46,50,
embedding FTA within the proposed system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
Fig. 2 outlines the proposed‘‘renewed''system including the FTA aspects here outlined. The‘‘renewed''system proposed in Fig. 2 holds the promise of supporting the shaping of a shared vision across the value chain
and includes FTA elements into this structure to empower the organisation to appropriately apply foresight in business 39 using a PMS.
anticipatory PHASE 1 FTA suppo rts the develo pmen t of a sha red visio n across the valu e chain aligne d with the organ isatio
STRATEGIC LEARNING PHASE 4 FTA provid es a sha red unde rstandin g of stakehold ers'vie ws as well as of risks, opportun itie s, system capab
Th is is critical for the de fin itio n of a visio n t o be pu rsue d. FTA in volves the collective articulatio n of visions
Fig. 2. FTA embedded within the proposed system. S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 57 intelligence systems, direction setting, priority setting, strategy formulation, marketing, organisational change,
This is particularly true with a view of aligning value chain actors towards a shared vision enabled through FTA.
and practice with FTA, which in itself is an original contribution to the former field.
By doing so the authors'claim that the use of the system proposed aligned with FTA helps overcoming overall PMS (and in particular BSC) limitations.
Finally, embedding FTA within the system proposed shall enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
the renewed system with embedded FTA supports the system under analysis (i e. value chain) to undertake systemic transitions
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Heidelberg, 2008.40 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science
41 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA and equity: new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
2nd International Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 2006.24 J. Hausschildt, S. Salomo, Innovations Management, 4th ed.,Vahlen, Munich, 2007.25 R. Solow, Technical change
Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making Karel Haegeman, Jennifer C Harper and Ron Johnston Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals,
This special section is selected based on papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain,
and that there is an urgeen need to inform decision-makers of the potential value of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES (Johnston and Cagnin, 2010).
First, it suggests a specific definition of FTA, identifying its different possible roles for policy and decision-making.
which these different papers propose to redefine FTA in specific policy-making contexts. The papers that form this special section were selected from those presented at the Third Internatiiona Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis held 16 17 october 2008 in Seville, Spain.
This biannual conference provides a common platform for user communities of foresight, forecasting and technology assessment to reflect on these challenges.
The third conference focused on the impact that FTA can have on policy and decisiionmaking and its implications.
Defining FTA and its impact on policy and decision-making FTA is a generic label that groups a number of forward-looking methodologies used to better T Karel Haegeman is at the Institute for Prospective Technologicca Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit, Edificio
Expo WTC, C/Inca Garcilaso 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain; Email: karelherrmanhaegeman@ec. europa. eu. Dr Jennifer Harper is at the Malta Council for Science and Technology, Villa Bighi, Kalkara CSP 12, Malta;
The FTA labbe brings together a set of widely differing techniqques and several scholars have proposed different classifications of these techniques.
The different dimenssion used to classify these different FTA techniqque include: the type of technique (qualitative versus (semi) quantitative), the type of approach (exploratory versus normative),
building on a typology proposed during the first FTA conference in Seville by the Technology Future Analysis methods Working group (see Table 1). Keenan
and Popper (2007) defined six principles to distinguish FTA from other policy-support techniqques future-orientation, participation, evidencebassed multidisciplinarity, coordinated mobilisation of people and resources,
whether or not a methodology belongs under the FTA umbrella. But they could also be considered as qualitattiv criteria,
which a techniiqu can be considered to be part of the FTA toolbox. Its average score can then be defined as its FTA-score.
Table 2 shows examples of modelling and horizon scanning. Horizon scanning is a rather new FTA tool,
as further described below, and could become a 14th family of methods in Scapolo and Porter's classificcation The scores on the six principles can also differ for the same tool,
they can result in a higher overall FTA score. Refining FTA METHODOLOGIES with the aim to imprrov their impact on policy
At first sight, the degree of action-orientation of any FTA is likely to determine the degree of its impact on policy and decision-making.
However, other characteristics of FTA can influence its impaact depending on the functions of FTA in a particular context.
Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence
trend impact analysis Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 5 Six functions of FTA for policy-making are:
These functions were an important outcome of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis held in 2006.
Refining FTA for more impact on policy and decision-making With a view to improving the impact of fta on policy-making and thus on the extent to
which FTA succeeds in fulfilling the above-mentioned functions, the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis arrived at various general recommendations for increasing the impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in policy-making,
such as: Do not think of impacts at the end. Rather, start with the impacts and their larger implications early enough to engage clients
and stakeholders in the strategic question of how FTA can improve both their preparedness and ability to move fast
Translate and transfer FTA outputs into policy and decision outcomes. What has been accepted by many FTA practitioners as‘post-foresight,
'and hence not their responsibility, should now be recognised as an integral part of the FTA PROCESS. Apart from these general recommendations, individuua papers presented at the conference proposed a wide variety of methodological approaches that could improve policy impact.
Furthermore, by exploring new mixes of FTA TOOLS they contribute to the creation of FTA techniques that are more adaptive to clients'needs and to context characteristiics Last but not least, this special section also contribbute to the identification of key success factors in the application of these techniques.
and data of three governmental horizon Table 2. FTA scores for modelling and horizon scanning FTA score for modelling FTA score for horizon scanning Characteristic Score Comment Characteristic
Methods and tools contributing to FTA. Paper presented at Third International Seville Conferennc on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008, Seville, Spain.
Johnston, R and C Cagnin 2010. The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: addressing the Cassandra challenge. Futures (in press.
Keenan, R and R Popper (eds. 2007. Guide to Research Infrastruccture Foresight. Brussels: European commission. Popper, R 2008.
Dark scenarios as a constructive tool for future-oriented technology analysis: safeguaard in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI.
Paper presennte at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
New methodological developmeent in FTA. In Future-oriented technology analysis: Strateegi Intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnson, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds..
Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer verlag. Sripaipan, C 2006. Foresight in a nonprofit organisation: a case of the Technology Promotion Association (Thailand Japan.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 Septembbe 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september, Seville, Spain.
Use of the internet for future-oriented technology analysis. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain
Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010007-12 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 7 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
This paper discusses the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building.
3 and discusses amongst other topics the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool to set the agenda for more specifically focused foresiigh activities and other future-oriented technology analysis (FTA TOOLS.
Evaluation, Impact and Learning, Anchor paper Theme 2. Paper presented at Second joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 18 International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain Ministère de l'Écologie, de l'Energie, du Développement durable
Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
As a consequence, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES like foresight have gained growing attention in recent years in the EU and worldwide,
Established FTA approaache tend to struggle with the double challenge of exploring future trajectories of extremely fastchanngin areas like creative content
When commissioning an FTA of the creative content sector in 2007 2008 the European commission was expecctin
and assesses the FTA procees and methodology used to envision the future of the European creative content sector,
and demonstrate how the FTA and methodology chosen succeeded in building strategic knowledge in support of a sustainabbl European creative content sector in the future.
The overall objective of the FTA had been to provide the policy-making process with strategic intelligence by taking a prospective view towards the evolution of ICT and
However, the above finding raises the question of the appropriateness of carrying out a FTA on such a diverse sector with a specific policy area like R&d in mind.
Conclusion The methodological setup of the FTA described and analysed in this paper is anchored in the adaptive foresight framework,
and of the possibilities of what FTA can deliver as it is to the client's unrealistic expectations.
Pretending to be more preciis than serious FTA allows would be both methodologgicall questionable and unethical.
It is therefore no surprise that the FTA policy impact was limited rather in the sense that it did not lead to any direct policy measures or specific initiatives.
if an FTA is expected, as in our case, to generate knowledge and insights to feed directly into formulation of current-day policy options.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
Similarly, Amanatidou and Guy (2006) have pointed out the direct and indirect benefits of FTA: Foresight programmes are evaluated usually in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts.
FTA objectives reported by the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN)* A review by the authors of reports on mapping foresight by the EFMN reveals the wide range of objectives that different nations
and they remiin us that FTA is also a sociopolitical activity and should be understood as such.
2006) looked at FTA from the corporate perspective and identified several criteria (content and process) for improving the effectiveness of foresight studies (see Table 4). Survey process From the preceding discussion,
Pleas from sponsors of FTA ACTIVITIES for better accounts of demonstrable impacts are as old as FTA itself.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Sripaipan This paper presents a future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) project on the control and management of emerging infectious diseases (EID) in the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation region.
Within the scope of existing and new technollog development to combat EID, the study proviide evidence of how the FTA can address societal issues and challenges,
and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA. Bibliometric analysis and online survey complement each other in providing insights
It is believed that this kind of comprehensive FTA will increasingly be needed as the nature of the new challenges to humankind are increasingly borderless
This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
In Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnston, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds.
The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy? Mark Boden1,,
Mark. boden@ec. europa. eu. The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) held in May 2011, focussed on the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in global and national structures
which they address key issues in the development and implementation of FTA in relation to these challenges.
These papers examine the reorientation of research and innovation systems and the integration of FTA within them.
New approaches to FTA are examined also with lessons drawn from the experiences at both national and international levels in the application of fta.
The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) entitled‘‘FTA and Grand Societal Challenges: Shaping and Driving Structural and Systematic Transformations organised by the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre (JRC-IPTS) was held in May 2011.
This edition of the conference focussed on the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in global and national structures, systems, rules and practices in response to grand societal challenges.
and call for appropriate forms of FTA to support and enable both organisations and individuals to anticipate,
adapt and respond pro-actively to change. 1 A closing summary of the FTA Conference outcomes in relation to policy needs by Georghiou (2011) highlighted the extent to which the global scale, complexity,
while the effort committed to advancing FTA as an adaptive tool (assisting governments to plan for incremental change) have been useful,
A tentative claim might be that FTA and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovation in organisations and governance.
One particular feature of the 2011 FTA Conference was the organisation of two invitation-only sessions devoted to good practice in foresight for policy.
what kind of emerging issues should FTA seek to address, which actors should be engaged, what actions should
These included the continuing adaptation of FTA to the changing economic and policy environment. This is instanced by the recent reframing of FTA from contributing to evidence-based policy towards a greater emphasis on the construction, analysis and interpretation of narratives.
Another significant shift is from primarily expert-based approaches to continuous highly participative‘crowdbassed processes.
and innovattio system towards major societal challenges, with greater integration of FTA;.the development and implementation of new approaches to FTA, particularly the application of horizon scanning;.
experiences of particular organisations, operating at both national and international levels, in applying FTA to their own innovation activities as well as those of key stakeholders.
Embedding foresight into and across national, and increasinngl transnational, research and innovation systems can be seen to offer the most effective approach to meeting crosscutting societal challenges.
Cagnin, Amanatidou and Keenan address the roles that FTA can play in orienting the innovation system to more effectively address the grand challenges.
In their view, FTA can facilitate experimentation and learning by providing safe spaces for new ideas to emerge
FTA can support the development of knowledge by providing, for example, insights on longer-term developments, the scope and opportunities for shaping futures,
At the same time, FTA can support and reinforce the emergence of‘hybrid fora'that bring together diverse and often disparaat actors that might not normally interact.
Weber, Cassingena Harper, Ko nno la and Carabias suggest that addressing the grand challenges requires a new kind of FTA.
A tighter embedding of FTA in support of decision-making is needed in the context of a fast-changing, turbulent and complex environment.
and the role that FTA can play in helping to address the inherent complexity. Drawing on evidence from three cases on foresight processes in research programming
they highlight both the value that FTA can bring to the programming process, and also the challenges posed to foresight design and management.
The value of novel approaches to FTA to more effectivvel identify, understand and thus respond to grand challennge has been addressed in two of the papers,
The experience of FTA practitioners in implementing foresight tools provides further evidence of the effectivenees of particular tools in meeting particular challenges in the most appropriate ways.
Case study evidence is a core The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 137 feature of every FTA conference.
The application of fta in large research-based organisations in developing both their own strategic orientation and those of their clients, can offer wider lessons for both the organisational integratiio of FTA and the identification and continued evolution
as well as to the FTA conference more generally, clearly demonstrate there is a growing volume of valuable and appropriable experiennc in the development and application of fta, in terms of both the process and methods and the organisational context in
is via a much more systematic embedding of FTA within government. In fact, FTA can provide safe spaces for new ideas to emerge
and be experimented with. But this certainly also requires greater emphasis on an FTA which is less concerrne to be‘adaptive'and supportive,
and rather more concerned with a relatively new type of FTA with an emphasis more on‘thinking the impossible,
'and detecting and responding to early signals of potential dramatic change. However, it has to be noted that FTA can challenge current systems
and through its implementation it can explore for new approaches that might include incremental but also radical changes.
embedding an FTA capacity designed primarily not to support incremental change, but to act as a warning and progenitor of disruptive change;.
Notes 1. Introduction, Fourth International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/intro. html>accessed March 2012.138.
Georghiou, L. 2011)‘ Connecting conference outcomes with policy needs, options and implications'paper presented during final plenary session at the Fourth International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain
The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 139
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy Claudio Chauke Nehme1, 2,,
Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play Cristiano Cagnin1*,Effie Amanatidou2 and Michael Keenan3 1dg Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies
This paper highlights the contributions that future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) might make to orienting innovation processes towards grand challenges.
In this context, FTA can generate‘informing, '‘structuring'and‘capacity-building'benefits while enabling a shift in innovattio foci towards grand challenges.
However, FTA could be exploited better to deliver its structuring and capacity-building benefits which are recognised hardly in the EU's existing innovattio policy instruments,
Certain traditions in the FTA family of approaches, particuularl technology assessment, have taken the reorientatiio of technological trajectories and innovation activities as an explicit goal.
But the impacts of FTA in this respect have fallen somewhat short of expectations up until now. The central question in this paper is
the supporting roles that FTA might play, especially in relation to newly established EU instruments. Reflecting the above considerations,
This relates to FTA's informing, structuring and capacity-building benefits, which are transposed onto specific contributions to innovation system functions.
as well as the contributtion FTA could make to orienting policy agendas towards grand challenges. Section 7 draws some conclusions. 2. Innovation:
are intrinsic to FTA (Cagnin et al. 2008). At the same time, appropriate constellations of policy interventions will vary, depending on specific challenges,
In this regard, FTA as a tool of governance could have a promising role to play in reorienting innovattio systems towards grand challenges. 5. FTA for orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges Th paper takes FTA to refer to systematic processes
Thus, FTA can play a number of important roles (see Fig. 1) in orienting innovation systems
Fig. 2 illustrates the inter-relatedness of these FTA roles with the innovation system functions outlined earlier in the paper (see Table 1). The inter-relations are summarised in the sub-sections that follow. 5. 1 Informing decision-making
The informing role of FTA most closely relates to the innovation system functions of facilitating experimentatiio and learning, knowledge development,
The knowledge developed under FTA helps to articulate visions and expectations which can form the framework under
and mobilising actor networks The structuring role of FTA relates to the aim of identifyiin
More broadly, FTA can raise awareness and sensitise society towards sustainable solutions, while also bringing public concerns and interests into the debates.
which contribuut to creating spaces for market formation. 5. 3 Building organisational capacity The capacity-building role of FTA refers to the enhancemeen of strategic capabilities and the responsiveness of individuals and organisations to emerging
Some common uses of FTA Informing decision-making processes Formulate funding and investment priorities for public policies Evaluate existing strategies against potential futures,
and image of organisations using FTA, showing them to be futureorieente and open, and attractive places for investment Enhance responsiveness of organisations by supporting change in individuals'behaviour
thereby enabling the system to undertake systemic transitions and new configurations Figure 1. Some common uses of FTA.
and could be made by FTA in this regard. In general, having to deal with more global issues implies a corresponding organisational capacity to deal with them
mobilise resources FTA informing role FTA structuring role FTA capacity building role Innovation system functions FTA roles Figure 2. Contributions of FTA roles
FTA has played already some role in the old instruments, e g. in setting the strategic research agendas in ERA NETS and the European Technology platforms,
A brief scanning of their deliverables shows that the use of FTA varied from one project to another.
Overall, however, FTA was used as a means for setting directions and priorities through knowledge development based on expert knowledge and by mobilising the resources availabbl in the actors already involved in the projects.
In this regard, the old instruments mainly exploited the informiin role of FTA. FTA also has a role to play in the new instruments.
The identification of grand challenges and the corresponding priorities for research and innovation through the use of forward-looking activities is mentioned explicitly in the Council's conclusions (December 2009) 7 on guidance on future priorities for European research.
In this regard, the importance of the informing role and benefits from FTA are recognised already in the new instruments.
Especially in relation to knowledge productiion the role of FTA is seen to be important for encouraging the multi-disciplinarity needed both in terms of research focus as well as in the identification of policy implications given the interdependencies of grand challenges
Nevertheless, FTA could also play other potential roles in the new instruments dealing with grand challenges through better exploitation of its structuring and capacity-building roles
FTA could be useful in facilitating experimentation and learning, since providing experimental spaces for new ideas to emerge
Additionally, the role of FTA in developing and mobilising resources becomes relevant in identifying the most relevant actors
In its role in knowledge diffussion FTA can enable a range of communication 148. C. Cagnin et al. channels that allow cross-disciplinary coordination
Finally, the role of FTA in creating spaces for market formation, by means of articulating market-shaping expectations
Last, but by no means least, the capacity-building benefits of FTA should not be neglected. Enhancement of the strategic capabilities of individuals and organisatiion through the development of a foresight culture can be an important side effect of any FTA ACTIVITY provided appropriate provisions are made in the design of the new instruments.
Table 2 summarises the ways FTA could be integrated into some of the EU instruments discussed above
and the Table 2. FTA roles in innovation functions and their integration in EU instruments Innovation system function FTA roles Integration of FTA in EU instruments Facilitate experimenttatio
and learning FTA can provide‘safe spaces'for new ideas to emerge and for existing knowledge to be combined in novel ways.
FTA can be performed at different levels and in different places, thereby contributing to the creation of variety in innovation systems Informing role of FTA facilitates building of a common vision for a specific theme or challenge,
and in defining a common strategic research agenda amongst involved stakeholders Capacity building role of FTA supports stakeholders to engage,
exchange ideas and explore and create solutions to situations or challenges at hand Knowledge development FTA,
as a source of‘strategic intelligence'for policy and other actors, is itself a knowledge-creating activity.
and impacts of grand challenges as well as their possible solutions Informing role of FTA can be embedded within EU instruments in the steps of challenge/problem identificatiion prioritisation of associated themes and areas for research,
and setting strategic research agendas Capacity building role of FTA supports building skills for engaging in multi-disciplinary teams
and applying a forward looking approach to situation/challenge at hand Knowledge diffusion FTA involves bringing together often disparate actors that might not normally interact to imagine
In this way, FTA provides forums for knowledge to be exchanged and created. At the same time FTA can raise awareness and sensitise society towards sustainnabl solutions,
while also bringing public concerns and interests into debates Structuring role of FTA can be enabled within EU instruments
when defining priority areas of common interest and in setting strategic research agendas among different actors Capacity building role of FTA supports collective learning and knowledge creation Guide direction of search and selection FTA tends to lead to articulation
of visions and expectations that guide actors in their search and selection of future opportunities.
It is perhaps the main rationale offered for conducting FTA as a means for setting directions
and priorities Informing role of FTA can be embedded within EU instruments in the steps of challenge/problem identificatiion
and prioritisation of associated themes and areas for research Capacity building role of FTA supports diverse expectations to be framed
and understanndin their long-term implications Create spaces for market formation FTA's contribution to market formation tends to be more indirect, for example,
through articulation of market-shaping expectations and visions and conditions for coordination of market actors that these provide Structuring role of FTA allows consideration of future market applicability of different alternatives alongside with research excellence needed to foster their development Capacity
FTA supports articulation of market-shaping expectations and stakeholders'visions and in coordinating actors Develop
the FTA PROCESS and its products can mobilise those involved to reassign resources Structuring role of FTA enables definition of governance structures
and bodies Capacity building role of FTA supports teams of diverse actors to engage and join forces for designing common desirable futures Orienting European innovation systems. 149 contributions these would make to various innovation system functions. 7. Conclusions This paper has outlined the contours of an emerging mission-led approach to innovation policy that is more global
In this context, this paper has introduced some of the contributions that FTA could make to orienting innovattio systems towards grand challenges.
FTA can lead to the generation of new knowleedg or novel combinations of existing knowledge that can inform formal decision-making and priority setting processes.
This can be thought of as the information role of FTA. Taking a systems of innovation approach,
the paper also suggests that FTA can support the spanning of traditional boundaries that might
For example, FTA can enable spaces for dialogue and interactions between actors to emerge, which can lead to the establishmeen of new linkages (as well as the disruption of existing ones.
FTA can foster experimentation and learning, and allow decisions to be shaped within wider settings through new inclusive and participatory governance approaches.
With regards to its capacity-building role FTA can contribute to the articulation of strategic visions that can guide search and selection processes,
Finally, the ability to conduct and/or utilise FTA is itself a valuable dynamic capability that encourages organisations to be more responsive, adaptabble and open to change.
Current EU programmes and initiatives mainly exploit the informing role of FTA in knowledge development and in providing guidance for direction or prioritisation of research areas and themes.
however, the potential to engage diverse stakeholders enabled through FTA does not always take place. Ultimately, decisions are still somewhat top-down.
The structuring role that FTA could provide and where much benefit might be obtained, in effectively orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges remains under-exploited.
At the same time, the capacity-building role of FTA should be enabled to benefit all innovation system functiion as this would lead to the accumulation of expertise
and facilitate the application of fta approaches on a contining basis. Applying FTA in the framework of joint initiatives in dealing with grand challenges should aim both to find effective solutions for grand challenges
However, this role of FTA, i e. in relation to capacitybuilldin is acknowledged the least in joint programming activities.
and contribute to a better appreciation of the roles FTA can play in reorientiin innovation systems towards grand challenges.
Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre, R. eds) Future-oriented technology analysis, pp. 41 52.
Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R.,eds,(2008) Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy.
Cagnin, C.,Loveridge, D. and Saritas, O. 2011)‘ FTA and equity: New approaches to governance',Futures, 43: 279 91.
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