Within the Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), technology forecasting traces back to the 1950's 4. One of its half dozen
it is a good time to invest in NBS to pursue potentialmarkets. 4. Conclusions How might technology life cycle analysis based on patents contribute to FTA?
How might this TLC estimation method fit in with other FTA techniques? Porter 40 suggested considering the use of multiple FTA METHODS tailored to the type of foresight study.
J. Banks, Forecasting and Management of Technology, 2nd Edition John Wiley, New york, NY, 2011.6 A l. Porter, M. Rader, Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study
Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berllin, 2008, pp. 149 162.7 W. L. Nolte, B c. Kennedy, R. J. Dziegiel, Technology readiness level calculator
Universal Darwinism 1. Introductory thoughts The main objective of this seminar concerns the exploitation of the powerful new capabilities provided by the Information technology Era to advance Future-oriented technology analysis (TFA), both product and process.
which is very useful for Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) studies, is illustrated on a policy-making case related to energy transitions.
which is of great importance in FTA 19. The proposed approach is illustrated by means of a long-term policy-making case related to the transition of energy system toward sustainability.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 4. Discussion and implications for Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) In this paper we proposed an iterative computational approach for designing adaptive policies that are robust
A modified classification in combination with PRIM could be utilized for such an analysis. This study also has implications for Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA.
Thus, this study is in line with the purpose of FTA projects that aim at developing long-term, adaptive,
This study illustrated the potential of EMA for FTA as suggested by Porter et al. 17.
Uncertainties and surprises are inevitable and intrinsic to FTA projects. The adequate handling of uncertainty is thus of prime importance.
Using FTA for planning for action is one area where the handling of uncertainty is crucial.
the paper offers a new technique for FTA practitioners in their work of supporting long-term planning. Another important challenge inmany FTA projects is supporting amulti-actor process.
Different perspectives, differentworldviews or different mental models of various stakeholders are usually the norm in FTA projects
and may result in situations where the results of FTA projects are contested by one ormore of the actors involved in the process
if the diversity of views and/or actors is cared not properly for. Here, EMA can be of use,
Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207.19 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, Positioning future-oriented technology analysis, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds.
Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008, pp. 1 13.20 L. Albrechts, Strategic (spatial) planning reexamined,
which EMA is a promising approach for future oriented technology analysis (FTA). We report on three applications of EMA,
which are key activities of FTA. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Future-oriented technology analysis Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Deep uncertainty System dynamics Adaptive policymaking Agent-based modeling 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is understood as an umbrella label for various approaches
to explore future developments, including technology forecasting, technology intelligence, future studies, foresight, and technology assessment 1. In their own ways each of these approaches is used for analyzing technological developments and their potential consequences.
The various fields covered by the umbrella term FTA have at their disposal a wide variety of methods, techniques, and approaches.
In their agenda setting paper on FTA Porter et al. 1 note that there are many irreducible uncertainties inherent in the forces driving toward an unknown future beyond the short termand predictions need not be assumed to constitute necessary precursors to effective action.
This paper explores the potential of EMA for FTA. It thus explicitly addresses one of the FTA challenges identified by Porter et al. 1 by assessing how EMA could contribute to adaptive foresight 10 under deep uncertainty.
Particular attention is given to the potential of EMA in offering decision support for shaping systemic and structural transformation.
and in order to assess the potential of EMA for FTA, three case studies are reported in Section 3. Section 4 is a discussion of the results of these cases and their implications for FTA.
Section 5 contains the conclusions. 2. Exploratory modeling and analysis Various scientific fields including the environmental sciences, transportation research, economics,
Porter et al. 1, in their agenda setting paper on FTA, explicitly mention EMA as being of potential interest to FTA.
To our knowledge, the potential of EMA for FTA has however not been investigated yet. This paper can be seen as an attempt to do so.
and implications for FTA This paper started from the observation that model-based decision support under conditions of deep uncertainty is problematic.
We noted that Porter et al. 1 shortly touched upon this issue and on the potential of EMA for FTA.
However, no careful assessment of EMA for FTA has taken place yet. We illustrated EMA for FTA using three cases.
Below we shortly discuss each case, before drawing more generic implications of these cases on the potential of EMA for FTA.
These cases differed in the modeling paradigm that was used, in the application domain, and in the type of problem being investigated.
These three cases show that EMA can be of use to FTA. FTA aims at offering systemic considerations on future developments for dynamically complex issues.
The comprehensive exploration of the consequences of combinations of uncertainties that can be offered by EMA is an important component of such future-oriented
and phenomena FTA applies to. FTA intends to guide policy and decision-making by helping in anticipating and shaping future developments.
The second case demonstrates how EMA can be used for guiding decision-making on plans that shape the long-term development of an airport.
A central issue in many FTA projects is how to cope with a multiplicity of worldviews and values,
and techniques available to FTA practitioners. 5. Conclusions The aim of this paper was to investigate the potential of EMA for FTA.
Theoretically, the potential of EMA to FTA is its ability to cope with a multiplicity of deep and irreducible uncertainties in the analysis of decision-making problems
Another major avenue of research is on the communication of EMA that results to policy-makers and FTA practitioners.
Proceedings of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making-Seville 28 29,september 2006, 2006.4 H. S. Becker, Scenarios:
http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf). 10 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:
Proceedings of the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), FTA for Structural and Systemic transformations in Response to Grand Societal Challenges:
Proceedings of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006, 2006.30 H. Lawson, Reflexivity, The Postmodern Predicament, Open Court, La Salle, IL, 1985.31 J
Proceedings of the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making Seville 16 17,october 2008, 2008.62 K. Borch, F. Mérida, Dialogue in foresight:
Guiding Exploratory Innovation and Strategy, the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: 12 & 13,may 2011, May 13 2011.71 O. Saritas, J. Aylen, Using scenarios for roadmapping:
The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Petra Schaper-Rinkel AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria a r t i c l e
Received 24 july 2011 Received in revised form 7 july 2012 Accepted 3 august 2012 Available online 2 november 2012 This paper analyzes the role that different types of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
In the US, FTA has been used to create visionary concepts and to promote cooperation between and among agencies, departments of the federal government, academia, and stakeholders.
In Germany FTA has mainly been used to shape and define research and innovation agendas of established science industry networks.
and role of FTA where the focus is not on individual activities, but rather on the longer-term interplay between the organizational settings in both countries and the future-oriented nanotechnology analysis. In countries such as the US and Germany, where FTA on nanotechnology were already underway in the late 1980s,
the early stages of FTA relied on expert-based methods such as technology intelligence and technology forecasting to define the field
and to explore what could happen in general. Participatory formats such as dialogues on ethical legal and social aspects (ELSA) became more important only later on.
Especially the inter-organizational setting can be considered a crucial condition for maximizing the impact that participatory FTA can have in the future governance of nanotechnology. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
different types of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) are used to determine national science and technology priorities, to develop governance frameworks
The paper analyzes the role that different types of future-oriented technology analysis played in the development of nanotechnology governance.
where FTA was used to create visionary concepts and to promote cooperation between and among agencies, departments of the federal government, academia,
where FTA was used mainly to shape and define research and innovation agendas. In both countries, the public policy activities to foster nanotechnology were accompanied by efforts to establish governance structures to coordinate interactions between actors of the innovation system.
How is embedded FTA in the national innovation policy? How are specific governance measures related to FTA and to the establishment of focal organizations?
What are the contributions of the distinct future-oriented approaches to the development of nanotechnology governance?
2. Analyzing the role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of nanotechnology 2. 1. Nanotechnology: the field, its definition and its governance The Technical Committee 229 on Nanotechnologies of the International Standardization Organization (ISO) issued a definition of nanotechnology in 2010
the scope of future-oriented technology analysis Several distinct approaches toward anticipating the longer-term implications of nanotechnology have been taken.
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 As FTA is understood commonly as an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action,
especially in science, technology and innovation policy-making, 28 the above mentioned activities can all be considered as FTA.
In this paper, FTA is used as the umbrella term covering subfields such as technology foresight, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping and technology assessment cf. the list in 29 and combining tools, ranging fromquantitative methods
The US and Germany differ with regard to their commitment to national-level foresight activities (as a highly comprehensive form of FTA.
Despite these different traditions, both countries used FTA to develop governance frameworks for nanotechnology. 3. Future-oriented technology analysis of nanotechnology in the US
The concept aims at having participatory FTA be taken up into ongoing sociotechnical processes to shape their eventual outcomes at all levels including to the point of the lab 43.
as in the case of emerging technologies, the diverse and dynamic environment enables the actors within the pluralistic system to use FTA to build up governance networks
but considering the nano-related FTA of the last fifteen years, the NNI uses advanced strategic planning methods and tools and acts as a kind of umbrella organization for pooling heterogeneous future-oriented activities.
and disciplines. 3. 2. Germany FTA for addressing the future of existing areas of strength In Germany,
By conducting these FTA on behalf of the BMBF the VDI-TZ built and stabilized actor networks representing industry
FTA aimed mainly at assessing the potential of the field known today as nanotechnology. Several industrial countries established their first programs in that field in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
FTA in the governance of nanotechnology started with forecasting activities and expert-driven identification processes in which expertise was limited by involving actors exclusively from government,
and cooperation Globalization and the shift in the role of nation states 58 are important factors driving future-oriented technology analysis.
As a result, the knowledge from the various nano-related FTA and participatory processes remains unconnected,
Both in the US and Germany, actors conducting early FTA did not claim to have a broad impact on public policy,
In both countries, early FTA envisioned innovative future nanotechnologies but did not provide guidance either for future innovative governance or for using nanotechnology for disruptive innovation to address grand societal challenges.
and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
While early FTA involved experts almost exclusively fromscience and industry and governmental bodies, current future-oriented activities involve at least in the US experts from social science and humanities.
and does not include the requirements of heterogeneous stakeholders nor make use of the knowledge gained in various FTA.
The inter-organizational setting can be considered a crucial condition for maximizing the impact that participatory FTA can have in the future governance of nanotechnology.
Policy 7 (2005) 64.27 M. Keenan, R. Barré, C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis: future directions, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds.
Future-oriented technology analysis, Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 163 169.28 A. Eerola, I. Miles, Methods and tools contributing to FTA:
a knowledge-based perspective, Futures 43 (2011) 265 278.29 M. Rader, A l. Porter, Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types, in:
C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds. Fitting Future-oriented technology analysis Methods to Study Types, Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 25 40.30 A l. Porter, W. B. Ashton, G. Clar, J
. F. Coates, K. Cuhls, S w. Cunningham, K. Ducatel, P. vanderduin, L. Georghiou, T. Gordon, H. Linstone, V. Marchau, G. Massari,
ISPIM conference Hamburg, 17 20th of June 2011, Lift conference Marseilles 2/3 july 2011 (INFU workshop), FTA conference Sevilla 2011,
JRC-IPTS (Ed.),The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), Book of Abstracts, Sevilla, 2011.5 P.-B. Joly, A. Rip, M. Callon, Reinventing innovation, in:
Rising to the challenges Reflections on Future-oriented technology analysis Luke Georghiou a,, Jennifer Cassingena Harper b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK b Malta Council for Science and Technology, Kalkara, Malta
Received 25 june 2012 Accepted 17 august 2012 Available online 3 november 2012 Drawing upon the presentations made at the fourth conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,
this essay reflects on the implications of the current period of instability and discontinuity for the practice of FTA or foresight.
these make it less easy to locate FTA institutionally to achieve the necessary crosscutting perspective. New institutions
Dealing with disruptive transformations is seen as the key forward challenge for the practice of FTA. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
This essay reflects on the implications for the practice of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) 1 of the current period of instability and discontinuity.
It is inspired by the presentations made at the Fourth Conference on FTA but takes them as a point of departure rather than seeking either to report upon them
1 Future-oriented technology analysis developed from an initial paper by Porter et al. 1 and subsequently tracked through a series of special editions of multiple journals arising from the FTA conference series in Seville, for example, Scapolo 2;
Scapolo, Porter and Rader 3; Cagnin et al. 4; Cassingena Harper et al. 5; Georghiou et al. 6. 0040-1625/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.10.009 Contents
As noted in the context of previous FTA conferences 8 the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name
of the conference series and foresight as the label for most of the activities it presents.
Here, we use the term FTA in the wider sense but recognise that many of the references
Studies have indicated that the principal applications of FTA have been in supporting priority-setting and in the analysis and articulation of the potential of future technologies 9
For this reason up to now it has remained a relatively small part of the picture of FTA practice.
How then has the new environment affected FTA? Is it managing to co-evolve with
What do these shifts mean for FTA? The features outlined above are reflected in the practice of FTA.
At a practical level the shifts make it less clear where the activity should be situated who has ownership of the problems
To the extent that FTA is situated in specific domains it is again at risk of achieving only a partial view.
contrary to earlier conclusion that FTA functions most effectively when it is tailored to the requirements of a field
More worryingly, there are concerns that administrations would like to harness FTA in order to constrain uncertainty to the point where traditional tools may be used.
what the user community might want from FTA in respect of guiding research and innovation strategies in the light of grand challenges?
which FTA work would be focused on articulation and orchestration. However policymakers would really like to know about new and unforeseen challenges that could disrupt their activities.
While there is as yet no clear methodological answer to the identification issue there have been some institutional responses and new organisational models of FTA.
Several types of organisations are seeking to build capabilities in FTA, for example efforts to build an anticipatory culture in Research and Technology Organisations,
If approached correctly FTAS, instead of seeking to manage away uncertainty, can accommodate it. Their application to innovation is increasingly taking into account the user perspective and the need for social shaping.
A particular challenge is to find the methodological core of FTA practice, not because of a lack of methods the field is rich with them
A running theme in the world of FTA is need the to address evaluation and impact.
A paradox is that consensual FTA is more likely to be absorbed than is an antagonistic output
The next two or three years promise to be a critical period for the challenged practices of FTA,
Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the stimulating ideas of the FTA participants, including the authors of the papers in this special edition but going well beyond and into the discussions, formal and informal,
Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US
Chang. 72 (2005) 1059 1063.3 F. Scapolo, A. Porter, M. Rader, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol.
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008.5 J. Cassingena Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technol.
Manage. 20 (3)( 2008) 267 269.6 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, F. Scapolo, From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis, Futures 43 (3
(2011) 808 final, 2011 12 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Sci.
, J. Cassingena Harper, T. Konnola, V. Carabias Barcelo, Building FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations:
new FTA systems for anticipatory action in a fast-changing world, Sci. Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 153 165.15 K. Haegeman, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, E. Marinelli, A. Sokolov, premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS
Editorial Future-oriented technology analysis: Practice in search of theory? This Special issue, like many compendia arising out of a professional conference, offers a sample of the state of the art at a particular point in time.
In this case, the window on the state of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is provided by a conference held in 2011 in Seville, at the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.
This was the fourth in the FTA series that started in 2004 and was held again in 2006 and 2008.
practitioners, and policy makers from across Europe and around the world to discuss FTA. The 2011 conference focused on an important topic, the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.
The papers presented in this Special issue represent only a small selection of the work presented and discussed at the 2011 FTA Conferences.
Papers that overall covered a wide range of points-of-view and topics, hailing from many different contexts and academic disciplines.
The selection of papers presented in this Special issue all share the aim of enhancing the usefulness of FTA
a) One set seeks to understand the context in which FTA is used currently, on the grounds that such understanding might help to improve the impact of fta through better design.
b) The other set considers how FTA influences practices and disciplines outside of the direct organizational or topical source of the FTA ACTIVITY.
design and innovation management while others mainly draw on empirical analysis and established FTA theory. The two papers that most clearly take a contextual improvement perspective (a) are the one by Dannemand Andersen and Baungaard Rasmussen and the one by Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin.
and in particular improving the‘‘embedding of Foresight into policy making processes''goals that have resonated strongly in all four FTA conferences.
Towards this end the authors advocate FTA designs that are tailored better to the context. Both papers unpack the widely accepted notion that‘‘context matters''by exploring more deeply
Dannemand Andersen and Baungaard Rasmussen delve into the national policy context for FTA by drawing on insights from sociology and anthropology.
The paper stresses national governance culture as the most decisive contextual element to be taken into account in the design of policy oriented national FTAS.
and uncertainty-avoidance as the key dimensions of national governance culture and thereby critical for FTA design Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin take a less interdisciplinary approach,
Two papers, De Moor et al. as well as Marinho and Cagnin, adopt the more‘‘inside out''stance of category (b) proposing to use elements of FTA to enrich
''Based on three case studies they suggest that FTA could help overcome some of the limitations of management approaches by setting up stakeholder dialogues
On the one hand the authors explore the use of FTA in the context innovation networks and innovation management.
At the same time the authors present an approach to adapt FTA practice to the changing nature of innovation and thereby to the requirements of a specific application.
''Based on three case-studies, they conclude that a networked approach to future-oriented activities strengthens the results of FTAS
and practice that made up the 2011 FTA conversation in the light of subsequent developments.
Furthermore, the editors of this Special issue, each from their own vantage point, have been following the evolution of the disparate fields brought together by FTA over the years.
Of course the‘‘story''of FTA over the last decade can be presented in many ways ours is only one of many possible versions,
Starting with the very first FTA conferences, participants have signalled their concern that an excessive disparity of interests, theoretical starting points,
if presentations and debates at FTA contribute to a deeper understanding of far-flung experiences and research or,
Symptomatic of this danger, many voices across all of the FTA conferences call for clarification regarding the impact or utility of FTA in terms of policy making and more general outcomes for society.
‘‘constant tension between foresight and FTA, with conflicting views on which is a subset of the other.''
Was FTA helping to generate a differentiated but nevertheless interconnected fabric of how to use the future to address technological research, investment, sectoral and societal choices?
Or was FTA revealing the incompatibility of the theory and practice of efforts that deal with closed versus open challenges?
and the difficulty of making sense of this continued diversity of the FTA voices made another case.
Was the FTA conversation a cacophony or the prelude as when an orchestra tunes up to finding Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 2 shared tones and interconnected,
In planning subsequent such FTA gatherings, it may be useful to look for signs of shared sense-making frameworks able to encompass, on the one hand, a tightly constrained roadmapping of a given technology within the assumptions of a specific scenario of national/European competitiveness,
Without finding ways to cover this range of FTA there is the danger that the FTA conferences become a set of disconnected conversations,
This situation seems in part due to the rapid and profuse response by FTA and Foresight practitioners to ongoing demands for studies that address our continuously changing complex emergent context.
and implementation of FTA and foresight avoid incoherence or even contradictions between methods and outcomes.
and users of FTA to situate and relate the wide range of different approaches to thinking about the future within an overarching framework.
FTA is clearly a diverse and inventive field, able to serve a wide array of decisionmakkin process.
Indeed it is this paradoxical‘‘short-termism''of FTA its capacity to meet pressing needs that may be most symptomatic of a context that is rich not only on the practical side but also the theoretical.
We are aware that research on the theoretical foundations of FTA poses challenges which are not only of academic nature.
In the view of the editors of this Special issue the FTA and Foresight communities may be at a turning point:
and organization of anticipatory systems seems to offer shared sense-making framework for the FTA and Foresight communities.
Hopefully the FTA and Foresight communities will be able to continue to build humanity's capacity to understand the future through conferences such as FTA,
'In parallel with the term‘foresight',the term‘future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)' is used by the European commission's Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), for example.
JRC-IPTS has defined FTA as‘a common umbrella term for technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment'12.
As, in practice, both foresight and FTA draw on, by and large, the same methodological foundation, this paper draws on the literature for both terms.
Acknowledgements An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 12 13 may 2011, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville, Spain.
recent experiences and future perspectives, Research Evaluation 19 june (2))(2010) 91 104.4 M. Keenan, R. Barre',C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis:
Future-oriented technology analysis. Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 163 169.5 E. Eriksson, K. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
Forth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic transformations SEVILLE, 12 13,may 2011. 7 J. Irvine, B
regions, Foresight 10 (6)( 2008) 16 38.12 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, Positioning future-oriented technology analysis, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.
Future-oriented technology analysis. Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 1 13.13 L. B. Rasmussen, Interactive scenario analysis, in:
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