when the future is open ended and thus an evolving map is needed. Presentations of alternative development scenarios to interested parties can communicate and advance foresight processes (Step
and applications. 5. Discussion and future prospects We have worked at FIP for several NESTS, including nanobiosensors (Huang et al. 2010), deep brain stimulation (Robinson et al. 2011),
and technology that would play an important role in drawing up a picture of future society.
The Delphi survey in the 9th Foresight exercise aims to outline the future prospect of development in science
Life scenes were developed based on the average future outlook of many experts. Delphi topics that were forecasted to be realized by 2025 were extracted
and reframed as a form of scenes. 2. 3. 3 Future society as discussed by the younger generation.
It appears that the effort to grasp these future events systematically in a framework will gain importance.
and technology foresight clearly should define an image of the future and show the framework Figure 6 Ratio of topics that are related to several scenarios PAGE 16 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 toward its realization.
The 9th Foresight exercise was conducted under the concept of contributing to the future society. The points of the exercise were diversified interdisciplinary
Green-related areas and life-related areas define the major directions of our future efforts toward realization of the desired future.
which research framework could lead to the better understanding of the overall picture and the direction toward the future.
European commission (2004), Converging technologies Shaping the Future of European Societies, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2009), Mapping Foresight:
Revealing how Europe and Other World Regions Navigate into the Future, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2010), Europe 2020:
Research policy makers need specific information and insight on how the structured view of the future provided by foresight affects their strategic planning.
They also help to create a joint vision for the future and to shape supporting infrastructure measures.
and thus ultimately shape the future. The success of research policy is dependent on the alignment of a broad range of relevant stakeholders from academia, industry, politics, and society.
Rather, it needs to anticipate future opportunities as well as future societal needs. It is therefore essential to underpin research policy with robust assumptions and a structured view of possible future developments.
Research policy makers do not just require the structured view of the future that foresight activities provide
and of the criteria it uses to assess the value of future outcomes of the strategic dialogue.
of future ambitions. 4. 6 Step 6: Expansion towards external stakeholders Based on the collected information from various sources the issues to be addressed in the further course of the process can be expressed with greater precision.
Scenarios and exploration in depth Given that future-looking activities of the BMBF often span time periods of ten to 20 years it can be fruitful to engage all stakeholders in building normative and/or exploratory scenarios as a guide and framework
and its challenges as well as a joint view of the future with potential paths to move forward successfully.
and translation of a joint view of the future into prerequisites and recommendations for a coherent research policy and its implementation through programs and/or dedicated institutional structures. 5. Illustration with recent examples As outlined above,
and their commitment to future activities; B consideration of the existing structure of departments within the Ministry as well as known difficulties in initiating activities across departments;
They also help to create a joint vision for the future and to shape supporting infrastructure measures.
This article presents some recent experience of how national research and innovation systems use futures to construct responses (such as new investment priorities) to emerging global challenges and opportunities.
was the focus on translating future-oriented knowledge (from drivers and trends) into grand challenges for the national research and innovation system.
However, through the consultative futures process undertaken, it emerged as a significant(‘‘grand'challenge for the country's research and innovation system.
menu/standard/file/lund declaration final version 9 july. pdf 2. The author was a member of the team that was appointed to carry out the work on behalf of Forfa's. The team was made of CM International (lead contractor) and the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation
foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 243-51.
Georghiou, L.,Cassingena-Harper, J. and Scapolo, F. 2011),‘From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 229-31.
impacts and implications on policy-making'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 252-64. Martin, B. R. and Johnston, R. 1999),‘Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system.
Rappert, B. 1999),‘Rationalising the future? Foresight in science and technology policy co-ordination'',Futures, Vol. 31 No. 6, pp. 527-45.
Saritas, O.,Taymaz, E. and Tumer, T. 2007),‘Vision 2023: Turkey's national technology foresight program:
About the author Martin Rhisiart is Director of the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation at the University of Glamorgan.
and forecasting the future state of the environment, based on Russian meteorological and natural resources satellites (2015-2020);
The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends, whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at development S&t.
because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
A clear need was highlighted for more detailed analysis of future demand for human, financial and other types of resources for S&t development.
updating the Union's approach in the context of the Lisbon strategy'',COM (2003) 112, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004a),‘Science and technology, the key to Europe's future guidelines for future European union
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight Survey contribution of science and technology to future society.
Sokolov, A. 2008b),‘Russian critical technologies 2015'',Collection of EFMN Briefs, Part 1, Directorate-General for Research Co-operation, European commission, Brussels. Sokolov, A. 2009),‘The future
University of Joensuu (2010),‘Foresight for the development of forest sector in Finland till 2020'',Future Forum on Forests of Finland.
Introduction Foresight and competitive intelligence (CI) are two fields that seek to address future-oriented environmental scanning (Calof and Smith, 2010.
or predict a certain future situation, but recognizes the possibility of alternative futures and also tries to shape
where the emphasis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 55 is not only on the technologies of the future
and their future applications seem to be quite similar, i e. to guide R&d decisions. In looking at the timeframes associated with CTI,
and develop strategies for future ISTS in order to realize the goal stated in the Lisbon Objective (Fujii,
Therefore, monitoring among scanned future trends, selecting and making positioning, and then specializing in small segments of the world market become the main focus of a small country.
which future trends can be detected easily, analyzed and visualized. It has been shown that fingerprinting of foresight activities by using a widely accepted
and has become a widely accepted and frequently used research method, especially for foresight or for future oriented research.
I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society
with the aim of anticipating future S&tchanges and shifts in the competitive environment. By providing a consistent classification framework
Therefore, not only policy makers at the national level but also researchers who are conducting a research agenda can use such a structured analysis result to see the future trends in their proper scope
or respond to the future competitive landscape. However, there are some limitations for this study. The result of the analysis is based on the foresight activities of three large Northeast Asian countries
revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future'',Publications Office of the European union, European commission, Luxembourg, available at:
and understood in order to allow one to be prepared better for the future and/or shape it
in order to realise a favourable future state. Transformations can occur as a result of disruptive events (i e. unexpected, short-term and sudden events, with immediate and ongoing impacts, for
Current and future economic, environmental and societal challenges, as well as their combination emerge from such transformations
Rather, it is a set of various approaches to the future, which share some assumptions,
and the present in order to consider future options or predict the future. Besides scientific methods, various other techniques are used also.
The main objective of FTA projects is to assist decision-makers with relevant analyses, observations and new ideas to be prepared better for the future (assuming that it can be predicted)
or shape the future (assuming that it is predetermined not fully by the identified/identifiable trends).
In other words, while FTA ACTIVITIES generate new knowledge, actually both practical and scientific knowledge, these are not scientific projects per se.
Both Hamarat et al. 11 and Kwakkel and Pruit 12 apply an approach to forecasting that uses an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (Exploratory Modelling
De Smedt et al. 5 investigate ways in which futures thinking assisted by scenarios can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges and for orienting innovation systems.
Shaper-Rinkel 13 analyses future-oriented governance of emerging technologies in the USA and in Germany,
and it deals with uncertainties by using an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (or scenarios.
Policy options across the future world ensemble are calculated and compared in an iterated process until the suggested policy provides satisfying results.
and iii) development of dynamic and adaptive plans and policies that are adequate across the multiplicity of plausible futures.
which future thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions. It does so by analysing seventeen scenario-based projects to identify elements of good practices
Therefore, scenarios stimulate future-oriented thinking, create a common language and understanding between stakeholders thus supporting a systematic negotiation process,
Hence, principles on how to orient innovation systems through future scenarios require representation and collaboration as well as the integration of different modes of future thinking
Shaper-Rinkel 13 analyses future-oriented governance of emerging technologies. She explores the role that different types of FTA played in the development of nanotechnology governance in the USA and in Germany.
In Germany, FTA is used mainly for addressing the future of existing areas of strength with FTA ACTIVITIES being governed by one ministry (BMBF),
In both countries, early FTA envisioned innovative future nanotechnologies, but did not support guidance either for future innovative governance or for using nanotechnology for disruptive innovation in order to address grand societal challenges.
Comparing these two countries, the main difference lies in the existence of an umbrella organisation in the USA that pools heterogeneous stakeholders
Hence, the implication for future emerging technologies is that the methodology and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
Schirrmeister and Warnke 14 contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations by sharing their experience on a project that explores future innovation patterns.
These contributed in a specific way to opening up new perspectives on the future of innovation and potential structural transformation of innovation processes,
Public policy 39 (2012) 140 152.10 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:
14 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke, Envisioning structural transformation lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation, Technol.
the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy. His research activity has been focused mostly upon long-term policy
and shape the future from different methodological perspectives. Whilst the community has grown since the first edition of the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), there is still little dialogue
on the grounds that quantitative extrapolation from past data is not sufficient to address the uncertainties of the future
and share their views on this topic at future FTA conferences. 2. Sense or nonsense of applying qualitative
A further point to keep in mind is that numbers may create the impression that the future is less uncertain than it actually is. 3 In this respect Linstone 12,13 points out that the possibilities of forecasting may be limited especially when the dynamic,
and assumptions 19,20 and does not tell us much about the future. Similarly, Loveridge and Saritas 20 point out that we simply cannot know the future.
They see FTA (both quantitative and 1 The interested reader is referred to Scapolo and Cahill 1 for further details on the origin and definition of the acronym FTA. 2 Quantitative participatory methods could for instance relate to the online sharing of big amounts of data,
In the NEEDS project (www. needs-project. org), the acceptability of future energy technology options was submitted to a multi-criteria assessment involving a panel of stakeholders, the results
and to aggregate results into a broad view of what the future might entail. 6 Yet,
where the future is the object of analysis, as there are different ways of exploring the future, based on e g. differences in beliefs or educational backgrounds.
Still today the different FTA COMMUNITIES are perceived as rather competing than collaborating in exploring the future.
In the context of qualitative and quantitative techniques especially the marrying of quantitative modelling and foresight seems to be unexplored rather.
or predict the future seems to be contradicting the idea of developing multiple futures and shaping the future by identifying common directions to follow,
using foresight. In reality, predicting certain elements of a broader system such as demographic developments is not in contradiction in any way with developing multiple futures.
In Section 2 we pointed to the need to understand the opportunities that different methodologies can offer in collecting knowledge about possible futures 22.
as an output, informed estimates about the future. The latter, in the case of quantitative models, take the form of numbers with associated probability distributions
This means that both quantitative and qualitative tools and techniques should be judged not so much against the accuracy of their prediction on the future
on the actions of those who will forge the future, largely reflecting their individual and collective (evolving) preferences.
which aim at eliciting information on the hypothetical dynamics of future preferences (individual and collective).
On the other hand, policy-makers and stakeholders will contribute to shaping the future through their decisions and their actions.
The exploration of future possibilities, when the expertise and knowledge made available by stakeholders and experts in the specific sector (s) subject to FTA can contribute to significantly increasing the quality of FTA results.
and not in terms of the probability that an envisioned future eventually comes true. In turn, uncertainty should be assessedwith the primary aim of differentiating between the intrinsic variability of a given phenomenon that exhibits high sensitivity to small changes (e g. networks congestion)
An exception is the International Futures Model, which can be used to examine long-term and interacting global development issues 73.393 K. Haegeman et al./
For forecast exercises, past performance can be validated by comparing predictions to reality. 16 Foresight on the other hand does not claim to predict the future
recommended future state has been realised is not meaningful. Good practices should rather be sought by measuring, if at all possible, the benefits derived from the foresight process itself (such as for instance network building and improved collaboration) and the improvement of the decision-making process,
and managed in order to better shape the future and prepare various actors for it. In this context, combining methodological approaches creates opportunities to complement the weaknesses inherent to the use of one single approach with strengths of other approaches.
Online 5 (1)( 2010) 56 71.7 M. Cooke, N. Buckley, Web 2. 0, social networks and the future of market research, Int. J. Mark.
a knowledge-based perspective, Futures 43 (2011) 265 278.23 For-Learn, Online foresight guide, European foresight platform.
http://www. dodccrp. org/events/12th iccrts/CD/html/papers/053. pdf. Accessed July 2012.41 A. Soojung-Kim Pang, Future 2. 0:
and other world regions navigate into the future, in: EUR 24041 EN, European commission, Directorate-General for Research, Socioeconomic Sciences and Humanities, 2009, Available at:
building policy options into a scenario for development in a global knowledge society, Futures 37 (2005) 813 831.74 R. Johnston, Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight, Foresight 14 (1
which may affect future European public policies by applying horizon scanning and foresight. She has worked in several foresight projects mainly in the advancement of the application of foresight as an instrument for policy-making formulation.
, fitting a curve to the historical data under the assumption that whatever forces are collectively driving the trend will continue into the future unabated.
It follows that such projection becomes increasingly precarious as the future horizon is extended beyond a few years.
The U s. military, especially the Air force, has made use of this categorization of technology development to help identify current status and future prospects.
For future study, we will test some other classifiers, such as nearest feature line (NFL) and Bayesian classifier, to assess
to assessing future technological impacts, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 79 (1)( 2012) 16 29.40 A l. Porter, Technology foresight:
Predicting the future: lessons from evolutionary theory, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 62 (1999) 51 62.4 T. L. Brown, Making Truth:
Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future, Simon and Scuster, New york, 1992.12 T. Devezas, J. Corredine, The biological determinants of long-wave behavior in socioeconomic
an inability to grapple with the long-term's multiplicity of plausible futures. Modeling used for policy-making under uncertainty long faced the same inability to grapple with the long-term's multiplicity of plausible futures.
Although testing parametric uncertainty is a standard practice in modeling, and the importance to present a spectrum of runs under very different hypotheses covering the range of their variation was recognized decades ago 14, p. 149,
This approach thus explicitly uses the multiplicity of plausible futures for policy design, addressing one of the shortcomings of many traditional approaches and practices,
The systemic characteristic of the proposed approach enables a holistic and systemic exploration of the future
and may not be very effective and efficient in various futures, i e. they may not be robust.
The resulting policy is flexible and adaptive to the future as it unfolds. 409 C. Hamarat et al./
Here, the goal should be to aim for plans that are adequate across the multiplicity of plausible future worlds.
This paper shows a way in which EMA can be utilized to support the iterative development and refinement of adaptive policies in light of a clear exploration of the multiplicity of plausible futures.
In addition, all the extant forecasting methods contain fundamentalweaknesses and struggle deeply in grapplingwith the long-term'smultiplicity of plausible futures.
despite the presence of awide variety of quite distinct uncertainties and a multiplicity of plausible futures.
Techniques and Applications, Adison-Wesley, 1975.11 O. Saritas, J. E. Smith, The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals, Futures 43
Change 77 (2010) 355 368.13 S. Popper, J. Griffin, C. Berrebi, T. Light, E. Y. Min, Natural gas and Israel's energy future:
Technology policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2008, p. 285.37 E. Pruyt, J. Kwakkel, A bright future for system dynamics:
the future of copper, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (in press), http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.09.012.43 B. P. Bryant, R. J. Lempert, Thinking inside the box:
Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162.46 P. Martens, J. Rotmans, Transitions in a globalising world, Futures 37 (2005) 1133 1144.47 D. Loorbach, N
including technology forecasting, technology intelligence, future studies, foresight, and technology assessment 1. In their own ways each of these approaches is used for analyzing technological developments and their potential consequences.
3. If the mechanisms of the clock are known, any future state of the clock can be predicted.
and what is the range of plausible future dynamic developments of a phenomenon of interest?
Future uncertainty is increasing because contextual conditions are less stable, new technical solutions are emerging,
political uncertainty about future CO2 abatement policies such as emission trading; and socioeconomic uncertainty about fuel prices, investment decisions of suppliers,
This EMA use of the model is reported below. 3. 1. 2. Uncertainties The future evolution of the extraction
which one can sample. 3. 2. 3. Analysis of results One key challenge for airport planners is to design a plan for guiding the future developments of the airport that is robust with respect to the future 36.
or by modifying the stricter slot allocation regime. 3. 3. Identification of plausible transition pathways for the future Dutch electricity generation system Recent contextual developments constitute a backdrop of change
political uncertainty about future CO2 abetment policies such as emission trading; and socioeconomic uncertainty about fuel prices, investment decisions of suppliers,
the future generation of energy will not be very sustainable. That is, in most cases, the fraction of fossil based generation in the final year is higher than 0. 6. Thus,
Name Description Range Investment cost factor Multiplier factor to alter the future investment cost of new generation options 0. 6 1. 25 Operational cost factor
Multiplier factor to alter the future variable operating costs of a technology 0. 6 1. 25 Coal
The comprehensive exploration of the consequences of combinations of uncertainties that can be offered by EMA is an important component of such future-oriented
and the Future of Nature, Island Press, WASHINGTON DC, 2000.3 G. Smith, Newton's philosophiae naturalis principia mathematica, in:
Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future, Columbia University Press, New york, USA, 2007.7 R. J. Lempert, S. Popper, S. Bankes, Shaping The next One hundred Years:
it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past.
which futures thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges.
Reflexive inquiry Innovation Scenario practice Grand challenges 1. Introduction In the context of this paper, future scenarios can be seen as narratives set in the future to explore how the society would change
, extrapolations or trends, substituting the criterion of plausibility for probability 1. Scenarios are not equivalent to images of the future,
but they consist of images of the future. Images of the future are snapshots of future states,
whereas scenarios consist of a logical sequence of images of the future 2. 1. 1. Developing
and using future scenarios Scenario analysis is practiced across many domains and is restricted not to specialized futurists or scenario specialists 3. Developing and using scenarios can contribute at various levels of society by generating appropriate inputs for planning
-contribute to society's strategic intelligence by stimulating future-oriented thinking and by widening the perspectives and knowledge base of researchers, policy-makers and business decision-makers.
scenarios that imaginatively represent plausible futures will meet resistance if they are used as predictions. 1. 2. Grand challenges The aim of this paper is to initiate a discussion on how scenario analysis can help to better cope with the grand challenges
One result of the above described complexity is a type of uncertainty about the future, an uncertainty
and engineer the future produce increased uncertainties 13. For instance, developments in science and technology have a strong potential to influence social change.
Futures thinking is an essential element of developing such a strategy. For example, Hamel and Prahalad 17 emphasize that strategy should draw up consistent visions of the future.
In addition several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18 23.
The traditional concepts and models of innovation are not always adequate to embrace the complexity for addressing the grand challenges 10,15.
or perceived modes of thinking about the future and multiple stakeholder values are initiating enablers or barriers for the scenario process.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 2. Material and methods How can we learn about orienting innovation systems from future scenario practice?
futures thinking and scenarios 3. 1. Innovation systems Innovation involves the application of new ideas or the reapplication of old ideas in new ways to develop better solutions to our needs 31.
Thus through trial-and-error and learning-by-doing 1 The Cost Action A22 network was a four year program (2004 2007) entitled Foresight methodologies Exploring new ways to explore the future and funded by the Individuals, Societies, Culture
Futures thinking Futures thinking is used for medium to long-term strategic analysis and planning. According to Jørgensen 41, citing Dreborg 42,
there are three modes of thinking about the future, each with their own methodologies the predictive, the eventualities and the visionary mode of thinking, see Table 1 for a more elaborate description.
the different modes of thinking imply a focus on a different representation of the future. Representations of the future can be seen as metaphorical descriptions.
Usually, these representations are mental images, but they can also be external representations, such as pictures or textual imagery 43.
but it has been shown that differences in the construction of time play a significant role in the construction of meaning about the future (e g. of nanotechnologies 44).
Gaston Berger started using scenarios to explore the long-term political and social future. He founded the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives
i e. scenarios intended to provide a guiding vision of the future for policy-makers 46. Scenario building and planning was developed further for management purposes, for example through the works of Pierre Wack
The categories arise from the kinds of question that a scenario user might use about the future:
scenarios are concerned normative scenarios with achieving particular future objectives which lead to preserving and transforming scenarios.
what would need to be changed for the target futures to be achieved. Although most reviews of scenario techniques distinguish between quantitative and qualitative techniques,
Table 1 Modes of thinking about the future. Source: adapted from Jørgensen 41. Modes of thinking Type of futures in focus Characteristics The predictive mode Probable futures Working with indications of what will happen.
Trying to find the most likely development The eventualities mode Possible futures Openness to several different developments The visionary mode Preferable futures Envisioning how society can be designed in a better way 435 P
. De Smedt et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The concept of the multiple-axes method is based on one of the approaches used by Pierre Wack 52.
by placing a major factor influencing the future of the issue being investigated on each of the axes,
and programs that will connect the future to the present. Backcasting scenarios explore the preconditions that could lead to this desirable future,
which provides a means to link technology and other resources to future products, as well as to innovation objectives and milestones 55.
All the above describe approaches to futures thinking during which (potential) inputs for scenarios can be produced.
For example Delphi studies use statements about the future, roadmaps and backcasting use end-point states, while most of the other techniques described produce narratives or images of alternative future states.
so they legitimate the future since imaginations are owned by the individuals relating them 67. Creating awareness for the unforeseen is most often an important objective and desired outcome of this group of scenario practice.
Still, it is less obvious how these scenarios can be used for bridging today's decisions with the future images.
Moreover, while participatory scenario-making provides visions for multiple futures, a roadmap only operates with one vision.
Developing a set of scenarios acknowledges multiple rather than one future, equally plausible, whereas roadmapping provides a framework for condensing all information in one map
We found that selecting areas for future opportunities are the general theme in the lessons learnt from this group.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The images of the future are focused on key internal developments
and enriching the future images. Flexibility, either avoidance of surprises or fast utilization of sudden opportunities
The principles can be seen as indirect and implicit representations of the future. The future plays the role of the time needed to introduce the necessary changes to comply with the envisaged principles.
The concept of change is an implicit part of the scenarios developed in backcasting from principles
This is often reflected in the outcomes envisioning a preferable future and experiments towards that future.
Comprehensive and well-designed roadmaps linking today's experiments with future images can improve the impact of the scenarios.
Our analysis suggests that scenarios developed with broader stakeholder/expert participation will provide richer future images that go beyond the probable that is determined by the past and present 73,75.
Stakeholder involvement, for instance, may be facilitated by conceptualizing the future as open and dilemmatic, and recognizing ambivalence as legitimate 76.
In the next section we will discuss our findings against the initial key question of how futures thinking
it is not sensible to extrapolate the future fromdata and relationships of the past. Hence, it is important to recognize that representing scientific and technological diversity offers an important means to help foster more effective forms of innovation
It is accepted widely that a vision about the future is an essential element of a strategy 16,17.
In addition, several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18
However, the commonality of scenario applications is the orientation to the future and that the knowledge produced is uncertain.
By questioning representation from a policy perspective and deconstructing future scenario practice, we were able to (re) construct findings to the above questions:(
An overview of our findings is presented in Table 2 that describes for each group of practice (sub-sections 4. 1 4. 3) the most common images of the future, an example of a characteristic technique and the dominant mode of futures thinking.
Instead of framing practice based on theory, future scenario practice is deconstructed into seven groups. These seven groups are linked further to the most characteristic theoretical premises
here expressed as modes of futures thinking. For example, we argue that a strong focus on developing scenarios
In the first group, we found that the scenarios are used for supporting strategic discussions about futures that are shaped by surprise and confrontation.
Table 2 Linking groups of future scenario practice from a policy perspective with modes of future thinking.
Policy perspective (representation) Scenario practice (most characteristic) Types of futures (main focus) Techniques (example) Modes of futures thinking Window of opportunity (sense of urgency) Using scenarios Shaped by surprise
Table 3 provides a brief description for each of the 7 dominant modes of futures thinking.
For each of the modes of future thinking, we also include information on the proposed effects on
or contributions to the enablers for orientating innovation systems through future scenarios (i e. pros and cons). Our analysis of the case studies listed in Appendix 1 suggests that a variety of modes of futures thinking,
as articulations of theoretical premises, can be distinguished in future scenario practice. In addition, we abstracted different dominant modes of futures thinking linked within different groups.
In reality, each scenario exercise is a mixture of different modes and practice is shaped by the image (s) of the future and the techniques applied.
Combinations of techniques are possible and can be found in our case studies and in literature, see for instance 71,81.
represented via the modes of futures thinking should be acknowledged when designing and implementing future scenario exercises.
As described in Section 4 (results and implications) cross-fertilizations between the techniques of the different groups can enhance the innovation potential.
when looking at combination possibilities of the modes of futures thinking in Table 3. To synthesize,
we argue that future scenarios developed with a combination of well-designed modes of futures thinking will provide richer future images that go beyond the probable that is determined by the past and present.
different modes of futures thinking have been identified through the process of deconstruction. In this paper, we argue that these modes of futures thinking are shown to contribute in different ways to orientating innovation systems.
Hence, by using a reflexive methodology we were able to create a heuristic to learn from the process of developing
Firstly, and summarizing our recommendations for future scenario practice, we suggest that representation issues (i e. what is,
or was lacking) are an important feature in the design and application of future scenario practice.
We also want to Table 3 Different modes of futures thinking for orienting innovation systems via future scenarios.
Modes of futures thinking Future scenarios shaped by Underpinning Logic pros and cons with respect to orient innovation systems Intuitive Surprise and confrontation Think the unthinkable
and conceptualize future situations where uncertainties are high Allows strong imagination including alternative futures that are competing Weak on acceptance,
but often too vague, too broad to inspire innovation Eventuality Possibility Explore contrasting futures and conceptualize future situations for the long-term where uncertainties are expressed differently Allows rigorously exploring boundaries and complexity.
Often an imbalance between outward/inward reflection limiting the recognition of its internal innovation capacity Predictive Probability Better contextualize
i e. using a policy perspective for doing an ex-post analysis of future scenario practice. Innovation systems are complex and dynamic
i e. integrating different modes of futures thinking, is needed for orienting innovation along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
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