http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country:
Frank Glod, Carlo Duprel & Michael Keenan (2009) Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country:
8 november 2009,933 951 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country: the case of Luxembourg Frank Gloda*,Carlo Duprela and Michael Keenanb afonds national de la recherche, 6 rue Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, B
Thus, the challenge for Luxembourg lies not in distributing limited funds among its existing science community.
In an opening section, the general contours of science, technology and innovation (STI) policy in Luxembourg are traced, with a view to contextualising the FNR Foresight experience.
Luxembourg lacked a public science, technology and innovation infrastructure. R&d carried out in Luxembourg was largely the preserve of the private sector particularly the steel industry and even today,
but other initiatives (see Box 1) are meant also to contribute to upgrading Luxembourg science, as well as to improving its governance.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 935 Expenditure on Public research 0 20 000 000 40 000 000 60 000 000 80 000 000 100
The City of Science is an initiative of the MCHER to regroup the University of Luxembourg and the Public research Centres on a single new site in the south of Luxembourg near the town of Esch-sur-Alzette.
This site will accommodate the activities of more than 1600 FTE researchers and aims to house the related research activities of the various research actors in purpose-built infrastructures.
In this way, FNR funding is intended to shift the Luxembourg research system towards conducting more leading-edge science
So the FNR has faced the challenge of identifying‘appropriate'programmes that will not only attract sufficient high-quality proposals from Luxembourg scientists
Explicit S&t priority setting is performed commonly at different levels, including the policy (government) level, the strategic research funding agency) level and the operational (research performing institutes) level (OECD 1991).
as mature S&t systems are marked by extensive‘lock in'that are suited better to evolution than revolution. In fact, what tends to happen is that priorities take account of this‘lock in
even if revolution might Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science
A further related consideration concerns the need to maintain‘variety'in the S&t system, so that there is flexibility to change
But in small countries, this is particularly difficult to achieve across the board as many S&t areas lack sufficient‘critical mass'to keep pace with all the latest developments.
and on the other hand, a need to avoid generating an inordinately long list of S&t topic areas requiring excessive amounts of effort to appraise.
In terms of breadth, for example, should participants be asked to assess S&t topic areas against nonscientific criteria? In terms of depth, to what level of detail should criteria be formulated?
'since future investments in research infrastructures or future changes in policies/regulations, for example, can make a significant difference to a country's ability to exploit a particular S&t thematic area.
In large S&t systems, this is particularly important, but is perhaps less important in small systems, such as Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 938 F. Glod et al.
whether existing scientific communiitie alone are placed best to set S&t priorities. An emerging consensus seems to suggest not,
and it is accepted now generally that the users of S&t knowledge and artefacts, including social and commercial interests,
the long list of research domains was tested first in five themaati junior researcher workshops, 5 but their full assessment was undertaken through an online questionnaire survey of much of the Luxembourg research landscape (around 300 participants), Online Questionnaire Young Res.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 939 where respondents were asked to rate research domains against a battery of‘attractiveness'and‘feasibility'criteria.
where researchers and research users were brought together in broad S&t area groupings for the first time to discuss
issues of granularity of S&t areas for prioritisation; the availability and use of background data; and the nature of processes of deliberation. 5. 1. Variety and change in the meanings of Foresight The FNR Foresight was born out of the necessity for the FNR to define new research programmes.
and advice of an international group of eight science policy experts (including one of this paper's authors) through a one day workshop.
To assist the development of outstanding centres of science and technology excellence in Luxembourg; To ensure the specialisation of public research centre facilities into centres with a limited number of specific areas of high level expertise;
uncertainty around how MCHER planned to follow-up on the results of the exercise unnerved many researchers,
if their Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 941 research was not to fall under identified research priorities.
however, only partially abated researchers'fears, particularly as changes in the exercise's remit and scope created uncertainty around its consequences. 5. 2. Dealing with issues of granularity
who generally lacked the breadth of domain knowleddg to reliably position S&t topics into the schema.
the ranked research domains within thematic fields were considered often to be framed poorly, incomparable for ranking purposes, unrepresentative of the interests of researchers,
by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 943 so-called‘competence niches'
and analysis. Similar shortcomings have also been noted by Meyer 2008 who comments that Luxembourg's‘current science policy appears to be almost too ambitious,..
rational Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 945 manner instead,
6. 1. Sense-making and the construction of political ownership As the main S&t policy body in Luxembourg,
with some describing FNR as the‘union'of researchers. Thus the exercise strengthened the link between research performers and the research funder.
thus familiarising the wider public with the stakeholders as well as with the role of science in a modern society. 6. 3. Impacts on the research community As mentioned in the previous section,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 947 6. 4. Impacts on the private sector It is unclear
the private sector clearly welcomed the opportunity for dialogue with public sector researchers and some consortia seem to have spun out of the exercise that have gone on to submit proposals to the European commission.
owing to a lack of common vision among the various stakeholders on the position and contribution of S&t to Luxembourg's socioeconomic development. 7. 2. Setting the‘granularity'of priorities The priorities identified by the exercise were set at a level
first, the already-mentioned lack of vision of the role of S&t in Luxembourg's development meant that some of the criteria were used rather blindly.
Some particiipant particularly those who were already critical of the performance of the public research centres believed that the exercise was flawed by relying so heavily upon the ideas and visions of existing researchers.
Some even went so far as to claim the exercise had been hijacked'by the special interests of such researchers
The exercise also brought in foreign experts to challenge any‘narrow'thinking on the part of local researchers,
or whether the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science
Outside of Europe, the Commonwealth Science Council has funded work examining design and implementation of foresight in small islands, using Jamaica
with most domain areas assessed by no more than a few dozen researchers at most and usually by far fewer people.
In addition, a series of young researchers'workshops were held earlier in the process, but these were judged to have been largely a failure,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 951 Meyer, M. 2008.
The dynamics of science in a small country: the case of Luxembourg. Science and Public policy 35, no. 5: 361 71.
OECD. 1991. Choosing priorities in science and technology. Paris: OECD. OECD. 2007. Reviews of innovation policy:
Luxembourg. Paris: OECD. Thorsteinsdottir, H. 2000. Public sector research in small countries: does size matter? Science and Public policy 27, no. 6: 433 42.
Wehrmeyer, W.,J. Chenoweth, A. Clayton, M. Fernandez-Lopez, and K. Lum. 2004. Foresighting and technology choice in small developing countries.
science, technology and innovation policies give the thematic portfolio of a country or region a greater weight again and pay more attention to long-term perspectives.
and implementation Vienna is the key centre for science and research in Austria as well as in the wider central European area to
in order to keep pace with the international developments in science, technology and innovation, with new employment patterns and with the need to further upgrade research and innovation performance.
Function Time lag Targeted and/or unintended impact Informing Immediate Increased recognition of a topic area Awareness of science,
application potential of science and technology; Fast second mover: exploitation in the focus; Multi-centric excellence:
Vienna as a centre of science. 3. 2. From fragmentation to strategic action:‘‘Wien denkt Zukunft'Following this preparatory phase,
3) Science and society;(4) Urban development for research. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 959 Panel 1 FTI in business Integrative concept for RTI-strategy Panel
report Public Forum Panel 2 Focus on research Panel 3 Science and Panel 4 Urban Panel report Panel report RTI-strategy Vienna Analysis of RTI
6) Rate of female researchers in the business sector is to increase by 100 per cent. 4. 2. Five main challenges A cross-panel analysis revealed five main challenges that would need to be tackled until 2015
to pursue successful careers as scientists and researchers. 2) Enhancing RTI quality and visibility with respect to international competition for investors.
Various activities will serve to improve the prospects and conditions for highly qualified young scientists,
Further improvement of working conditions for scientists and creative individuals is called for by providing local networks as breeding grounds for invention and creativity.
(1 Under the title of a‘Keynote Programme'for the specific fields of research in the humanities, the social and cultural sciences (on the side of the already well established programmes for Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs
Under the slogan‘Vienna research in dialogue',the City will address essential contemporary and future issues in the field of science, research and technology.
and contributed to raising the awareness of science, technology and innovation among different players that are primarily dealing with other issues.
He has been working for many years as scientist and policy advisor on matters of RTI policy, at regional, national as well as at European level.
Paper presented at the 40th Anniversary Conference of SPRU,‘The Future of Science, Technology and Innovation policy:
Scholars of science and technology studies (STS) have called attention Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 974 S. Jenssen to the specific qualities of foresight
science and innovation. 7 Expectations embrace both the possiblle probable and the highly unlikely, and thus address the uncertainty of the future.
and of power. 7. The sociology of expectations is influenced by Science and Technology studies (STS) and Actor-Network-theory (ANT),
and guidance literature interact with research areas of science and technology studies (STS), especially regarding insights about the relationships between‘given facts and future values'.
The sociology of expectations in science and technology. Technology analysis and Strategic management 18, no. 3/4: 285 98.
a sociology of prospective techno-science. Burlington, VT: Ashgate. Burt, G. 2007. Towards a research agenda for environment, learning and foresight.
In Interfaces between science and society, ed. A. Guimarães Pereira, S. Guedesvaz and S. Tognetti, 100 17.
European Science Foundation. http://www. costa22. org/articles. php (accessed June 2009. Garfinkel, H. 1967.
National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Japan. www. nistep. go. jp/achiev/ftx/eng/mat077e/html/mat0771e. html (accessed September 2009.
the need for reflexivity and learning at the interface between science and society. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1: 150 67.
the art and science of anticipating the future. Newyork: Routledge. Loveridge, D, . and P. Street. 2005.
Foresight in science and technology policy co-ordination. Futures 31, no. 6: 527 45. Rask, M. 2008.
a sociology of prospective techno-science, ed. N. Brown, B. Rappert, and A. Webster, 229 49.
One can thereby take advantage of wide availability of rich science and technology publication and patent abstract databases to better inform technology management.
Of particular note to FTA, the great science and technology (S&t) databases cover a significant portion of the world's research output.
In addition, many researchers share information via the Internet (e g.,, physicists increasingly post their papers at arxiv. org.
200 binnovation indicatorsq. 2 We gratefully acknowledge support of the U s. National science Foundation for"QTIPS-24-Hour Technology intelligence & Forecasting"(DMI-0231650.
In the past this typically meant that a researcher or analyst requested topical information from an information professional who sifted through the sources.
In our SOFC example, we use R&d publication abstract records from the Science Citation Index (SCI) and INSPEC,
The resulting information for btech miningq consists primarily of science and technology (S&t) publication and patent abstract records.
and conference research papers gathered from the Science Citation Index and INSPEC, and 9724 patent family records from DWPI.
as measured by S&t publications, is hot, o patenting, especially new (priority) patenting is much less recent,
In general, we find that the databases provide much richer S&t information resources with a measure of quality control.
researchers, technologists, and some managers (e g.,, occasional users of the databases and analytical tools! decision-makers (e g.,
One would think that scientists, engineers, and technology managers would naturally pursue empirical means to manage R&d and its transition into effective innovations.
researchers strongly prefer peer judgment to bibliometrics. The technical community has a deep distrust of metrics.
many do use empirical information in S&t arenas. Researchers usually mine the literature to find a few bnuggetsq that speak closely to their interests.
Patent analysts traditionally sought the few key pieces of intellectual property. Tech mining offers qualitatively different capabilities.
It can uncover patterns that reflect competitor strategies 9. It can also enable researchers and R&d managers to gain a global perspective on entire bodies of research.
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1078 miningq exploits the information compiled by S&t and other (e g.,
, identifying an active researcher on a particular topic.!Technology Forecasting QTIP can provide empirical measures for certain trend analyses to support growth model fitting
Particularly for academic researchers, we have an inclination to say bwe can deliver a fine analysis;
An additional script profiles the leading researchers at each of the btop 3+Georgia Techq American universities in the SOFC domain.
and notes that Georgia Tech has collaborated recently with a key researcher at one of the other universities.
He notes that we have left out a key Georgia Tech SOFC researcher who leads many sponsored research projects on
This paper focuses on the idea that informative mining of S&t information resources can be done quickly and powerfully.
Development of information visualizations especially for S&t offers great potential 12 13. To close, this bnewq method brings to bear available S&t information resources
and analytical tools to generate FTA more quickly. Its novelty lies in the approach to technology analyses in support of technology management.
Provide each researcher, development engineer, project manager, intellectual property analyst, etc. with direct, desktop access to a couple of most useful S&t information databases.!
The Quest for Knowledge Visualization, Springer, London, 2003.13 R. M. Shiffrin, K. Borner, Mapping knowledge domains, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101 (Suppl. 1)( 2004
which served to inform albeit indirectly the development of the national strategy and the attendant implementation of several Strategic Centres of Excellence in Science and Technology.
the Finnish Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes) has catalysed extensive consultation processes with researchers and industrialists in its strategy developmmen (Salo and Salmenkaita 2002;
or go beyond the processes of thematic priority-setting that are carried out within specific S&t policy instruments such as research
Finally, the Decision stated that the Science and Technology policy Council of Finland (STPC) should develop by the end June 2006 a national strategy for establishing Strategic Centres of Excellence in Research and Innovation.
to ensure that the exercise would tap the expertise of leading researchers and industrialists, and that its results would build on broad enough a basis to ensure credibility
words, exemplifyyin relevant scientific disciplines and associated technologies, as well as some domains of their potential application in industry and society.
Apart from covering economic and some other sciences (as a topic of scientific inquiry in their own right), this panel was ascribed a horizontal role
Materials) were linked to rapid advances in generic sciences and their application. Second, a deliberate decision was taken not to establish panels based on traditional industry clusters
The balanced composition of the panels was ensured by appointing researchers and six industriaalist onto each panel (whereby the Academy of Finland would propose the researchers and Tekes the industrialists).
Towards this end, both funding agencies generated lists of prospective panellists who were approached by the Core group after coordinating discussions.
the STPC took steps towards the establishment of Strategic Centres for Science, Technology and Innovation7 in fields that are important to the future of Finnish society and business and industry.
when the Government took decisions towards the implementation of a national strategy in which the establishment of Strategic Centres of Science,
Third, panels that addressed S&t domains with more clearly interpretable titles (e g. health and well-being, materials) found it easier to establish the boundaries of their work than those that had somewhat less conventional
Ville Brummer is a researcher at the Systems analysis Laboratory of the Helsinki University of Technology.
and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission. 2. The Academy of Finland is comparable to the US National science Foundation
It also supports international scientific cooperation and acts as an expert organ in issues related to science policy.
Foresight in science: picking the winners. London: Dover. Kaivo-oja, J.,J. Marttinen, and J. Varelius. 2002.
priority-setting in science. London: Pinter. Rask, M. 2008. Foresight balancing between increasing variety and productive convergence.
Science and Public policy 28, no. 6: 453 64. Salo, A, . and J.-P. Salmenkaita. 2002.
Science, technology, innovation. Helsinki: Ministry of Education. http://www. minedu. fi/export/sites/default/OPM/Tiede/tutkimus-ja innovaationeuvosto/TTN/julkaisut/liitteet/Review 2006. pdf?
Introduction From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is derived a term from a collective description given to the range of technology-oriented forecasting methods and practices by a group of futures researchers and practitioners
Science & Technology policy Planning Network (ASTPP), Frauenhofer Institute, Systems and Innovation research, Karlsruhe, 1999.7 L. Mermet, T. Fuller, R. van der Helm, Reexamining
MBS, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9pl, UK Jennifer Cassingena Harper Malta Council for Science and Technology, Villa Bighi, Bighi, Kalkara
, Breslauer Straße 48,76139 Karlsruhe, Germany d CNAM, 292 rue Saint-martin, 75003 Paris, France e Dept of Science, Technology,
evidence-based policy and academic disciplines such as Innovation studies and Science and Technology studies 2. A number of classifications have been developed distinguishing types of Foresight with respect to approach, context and purpose 3
Advancing Foresight methodologies funded by the European Science foundation; see: http://www. costa22. org/./8 Forsociety was one of the Era nets in the FP6.
which employ researchers, manage infrastructures; they produce, disseminate and transfer knowledge. Each one of these three arenas functions in the context of a specific institutional arrangement.
Similarly, regions for instance those hosting the most active science clusters have also a word to say in European research matters.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 234 with extensive formal and informal consultation of stakeholders including scientists and research organisations.
He suggests no longer considering the entirety of‘science'as such, expecting one general type of Knowledge dynamics (reaching from science to innovation) and one unique set of appropriate supportive public policies.
On the contrary one can assume that dynamics are differentiated depending on fields and sectors 43. The first component of field configuration relates to Knowledge dynamics building on Bonaccorsi's initial proposal
which has distinguished three abstract properties explaining differences between science-led areas. Growth. The rate of growth differs widely between fields.
According to the‘World of Science'the average yearly growth of publications is around 1, %while e g. genomics has been growing for the last 10 years at 8,
In fields that are established (with a dominant design or in‘normal science'under a given paradigm),
-or multidiscipllinarit for frontier science, one has analysed the need for inter-institutional linkages for problem-solving knowledge (collaborations between university and industry or between researchers and clinicians,..
which all refer to the need a researcher faces to develop collaborations in order to produce results.
For technological research as for scientific research, complementarities will refer to the need a researcher faces to develop collaborations in order to produce results.
Moreover, the combined analysis of scientific and technological knowledge brings a more original outcome in the sense that it provides an adequate framework for analysing researchers'coactivity,
The two strings of co-activity (scientific authorship by corporate researchers and patented invention by academics) can be analysed as linkages between the scientific networks (formed by authors)
plant genomics is based a science discipline where industrial companies play a major part, which means that it is regulated by a firm IPR regime. 5. 1. 1. GMP:
from 1996 to 2006) is compared with the changes occurring in‘‘all science''(50%over the same period),‘agricultural and biological sciences''(30),
plant genomics development is based a science activity led by industrial companies. This domain displays a strong institutional (i e. inter sectoral) complementarity between industry and academia.‘‘
of citations within cluster Platform cited within scientific publications Words network Number of words Persons network Number of persons Academic patenting Industrial publications Co-active researchers'collaborations
One DG RTD service is specifically in charge of translating nano policy objectives into research programmes,‘‘Nano-and converging Sciences and Technologies''.
Research in the domain of N&n is driven industry and science based. It is characterised by a strong coactivity (publications'authors that are as well as inventors) and an intense institutional complementarity between academia and industry.
References 1 A. Bonaccorsi, Search Regimes and the Industrial Dynamics of Science, Minerva 46 (3)( 2008) 285 315.2 L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, M. Keenan,
Current Trends, The State of Play and Perspectives, S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, European commission EUR 20137 EN, Sevilla, 2001.4 L. Georghiou, Third Generation Foresight Integrating
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A Sociology of Prospective Techno-science, Ashgate, Aldershot, 2000.8 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C. Cagnin, F. Scapolo, The impact of foresight on policy-making:
(ERA), European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.19 D. Braun, Special issue on‘‘The political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies'',Science and Public policy 35 (4)( 2008.
Available from the Science and Technology studies Unit, University of York, UK, 2001.21 E. Grande, The state and interest groups in a framework of multilevel decision-making:
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.28 J. Irvine, B. R. Martin, Foresight in Science:
industrial activities in wireless communications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (9)( 2004) 897 912.41 A. Bonaccorsi, Search Regimes and the Industrial Dynamics of Science, in:
Presentation at PRIME Annual Conference 2005,7 8 january, Manchester, 2005.42 A. Bonaccorsi, Explaining poor performance of European science:
institutions versus policies, Science and Public policy 34 (5)( 2007) 303 316. A. Schoen et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 241 43 S. Kuhlmann, ERA-Dynamics Project Strategic Report 2006 2007:
Presentation at the 2nd PRIME Indicators Conference on STI Indicators for Policy Addressing New Demands of Stakeholders, Oslo, 28 30,may 2008. 47 A. Bonaccorsi, The dynamics of science in the nano
Presentation at the PRIME Winter School on Emerging Nanotechnologies, Grenoble, 4 8 february, 2008.48 A. Bonaccorsi, G. Thoma, Institutional complementarity and inventive performance in nano science and Technology research
Policy 36 (6)( 2007) 813 831.49 A. Rip, H. te Kulve, Constructive technology assessment and Socio-Technical Scenarios, 2008.50 A. Rip, Folk theories of nanotechnologists, Science
patterns of moral argumentation about new and emerging science and technology, Nanoethics 1 (1)( 2007) 3 20.
and an acceleration of the advances in science and technology all are turning traditional hierarchical or linear markets, supply chains,
Science! Technology. The breadth of scope inherent in the diversity of the categories represents one of the most important strengths of the scanning process.
and brainstorming session by analysts, researchers, managers, sales and marketing staff, and consultants. SRIC-BI's staff in Croydon, England, holds a bimonthly Scan meeting.
Researchers and analysts will need to examine carefully the clusters of abstracts and topics that surfaced during the meeting.
Researchers and analysts! Technology monitors! Strategy consultants! Principal consultants! Marketing and sales staff. Representation from a wide variety of academic and professional backgrounds is helpful as well.
References 1 Mark Buchanan, Power laws and the new science of complexity management Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 71.2 Stephen Haeckel, Adaptive Enterprise:
Mckinsey Quarterly 2 (2002) 48 57.7 Mark Buchanan, Power laws and the new science of complexity management, Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 76.
Kermit M. Patton is research director of the Scan Program at SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI. He holds A BS degree from Cornell University.
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