which successful approaches and ideas from the past discourage employees from innovation. Scanning processes can provide quick, occasional doses of chaos to employees and managers.
or innovations in the marketplace depends on reading the early signs from and interactions among all these categories (see Fig. 1). Organizations that focus on their own industries
The process also provides a tonic against the entrainment of thinking that discourages innovation and adaptation.
Building and Sustaining the Sources of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1995, p. 135.6 Eric D. Beinhocker, Sarah Kaplan, Tired of strategic planning?
which sometime ago called‘‘wiring up the innovation system''4. In recent years there has been growth in for regional innovation
and the use of procurement or regulation to stimulate innovation is dependent upon the formation of a common vision between the supply
new demand-side innovation policies such as the use of innovative public procurement and regulation to pull through innovations requires a shared vision on the part of purchasers and suppliers.
and shape the future of their innovation environment 6. Firms are increasingly playing a role in defining innovation policy due to the rise of demand side approaches and the convergence of corporate and structural foresight.
''and reflects the aims of many exercises to promote networking between actors in research and innovation.
and demand fir technology or innovation. These almost always make reference to market opportunities or societal demand.
in Section 3 we catalogue the emergence of structural foresight and in Section 4 its growing role as an instrument for aligning actors in innovation.
FP1 Socioeconomic Improving human potential Innovation/dissemination International cooperation Energy Environment Competitive and sustainable growth Information society Quality of life Fig. 2. Evolution of framework programme priorities
Havas and Keenan have noted a tendency in such countries for science systems to be disconnected from innovation
its use to align actors around innovation objectives. Simpler definitions of innovation present it as‘‘the successful exploitation of new ideas''.
''4 However, 4 See for example UK Innovation White paper 27. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 247 success for business at least is defined very clearly in market terms,
so it is not surprising to find that the more direct corporate applications are concerned largely with understanding the drivers of future markets.
Other corporate activities are engaged more directly with the specifics of innovation: Becker reports that a small group of firms (Daimlerchrysler,
The use of foresight approaches to build linkages for innovation represents a focus for foresight activity in innovation.
This argument is particularly strong for innovation in complex public/private systems such as vehicle route information technologies,
Warnke and Heimeriks caution that this alone will not lead towards certain socially desirable areas of innovation
just as likely to impede successful innovation. This highlights the fact that innovation is not simply a sequential progression from the areas of science
and technology that may feature in priorities exercises but rather involves the mastery or areas such as training,
This thinking was also the basis of the‘‘open innovation''concept in that it recognises centrally that innovation is a process of interaction between firms
which innovations are most likely to emerge. Within the scientific system an inability to configure work around interdisciplinary problems
By contrast demand-side measures seek to use instruments such as public procurement, standards and regulation to pull-through innovations.
which there is potential for innovation and growth and connect L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 248 actors which are important for innovation.
While the direct use of foresight was documented not at the time in that example it is interesting to note that one of the most successful has evolved now into an ERA NET‘‘Wood Wisdom''dealing with the integration of forestry and wood material science and engineering.
and standards to stimulate innovation. The application of foresight approaches to these areas has been explored by Blind who focuses on approaches
or services and hence that an innovation is required to meet that demand. There is a potential double benefit in that the purchaser receives an innovative solution while the supplier benefits from customer feedback and an assured first purchase 38.
where there are sufficient buyers of the innovation willing to pay a premium or take additional risks
Put simply, a lead market provides a launch platform for innovations which then may evolve to become cheaper
which underpin successful procurement for innovation. Two conditions need to be satisfied:(i) Procurers at the start of the process are advised to prepare the tender procedure properly
there is also a probability that potential suppliers may not be aware of opportunities for innovation and that procurers may not be aware of the full range of potential suppliers.
as Wilkinson et al. put it in a guide to procurement for innovation:‘‘‘‘The emphasis we have placed upon detecting needs at an early stage
which purchaser and supplier can agree on the likely trajectories of innovation. Subsequently, these can be used as a basis for functional specifications that stimulate innovation
and require R&d to achieve them.''''40 The common thread in all of these demand side areas is the development of a common vision
In Europe where efforts have focused on increasing the public and private spend on R&d and Innovation, the extent of policy measures,
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 287 318.21 A. Sokolov, Identification of national S&t priorities areas with respect to the promotion of innovation and economic growth:
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.27 Department for Innovation, Universities & Skills, UK, Innovation White paper Innovation Nation, CM7345, March 2008.28 I. Rollwagen, J. Hofmann
, L. Georghiou, A. Subira, Creating an innovative Europe, Report of the Independent Expert Group on R&d and Innovation Appointed Following the Hampton Court Summit, January 2006.
methodologies and selected applications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516.38 J. Edler, L. Georghiou, Public procurement and innovation resurrecting the demand side, Research policy
A Lead Market Initiative for Europe COM (2007) 860,21. 12.2007.40 R. Wilkinson, L. Georghiou, J. Cave, Public Procurement for Research and Innovation Developing Procurement
Practices Favourable to R&d and Innovation, European commission, September 2005, EUR 21793 EN. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 251
Foresight Canadae Informative Identification of emerging and frontier technology domains addressing subjects such as future fuels, bio-health innovation, geo-strategic systems, animal
Generation of innovation ideas in Finnish Foresight Forumf 20 Informative Identification of future developments in nutrigenomics,(ii) health care and social services and (iii) services for the provision of personal experiences.
Instrumental Identification of innovation ideas and promoting stakeholder networking. Diverse Analysis of diverging views on innovation ideas among stakeholders.
Fixed Robust portfolio modelling, online surveys. Autonomous Stakeholder workshops. Extensive Wide stakeholder participation in online surveys. Exclusive Limited but open stakeholder participation in the workshops.
and needs analysis. Innovation 25 in Japan Informative The final report of‘‘innovation 25''has set out 5 scenarios for future Japan,
Instrumental‘‘Innovation 25''aims to make long-term strategy for Japan. Consensual‘‘Innovation 25''has set 5 scenarios of Japan society in 2025
and it includes‘‘Long Health Society'',Safe and Secure Society'',Society with Multiple Career Path,
The Cabinet Office established the Innovation 25 Strategy Council and the Innovation 25 Special Mission,
Agora and Innovations foresight. 3. 2. Visions foresight (consensual perspectives and informative outcomes) Visions foresight can be characterised as consensual,
The outcomes of consensual and instrumental technology foresight activities in Asian countries such as Japan, Korea and China have played increasingly important role in the policy-making process for science & technology and innovation.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 262 3. 5. Innovations foresight (diverse perspectives and instrumental outcomes) Innovations foresight can be characterised as instrumental processes with diverse
The driving for diversity of perspectives together with instrumental results are likely to lead to concrete innovation ideas
in Europe, Futures 36 (10)( 2004) 1063 1075.9 T. Ko nno la, V. Brummer, A. Salo, Diversity in foresight insights from the fostering of innovation ideas
In fact, a spiral of several successive cycles is needed usually for innovation and FTA PROCESSES moving between so-called tacit and explicit knowledge.
Jorgensen, Technology foresight in the nordic countries, A Report to the Nordic Industrial Fund, Oslo, Center for Innovation and Commercial Development, Risoe-R-1362 (EN),
invention and innovation, and their risks are an important part of the emerging landscape. At this point there is much force to Whitehead's perception that‘Science is concerned with generalities.
User-centred innovation assumes that user participation may help to prevent technological deadends reduce dependency on vendors
in many cases, innovation, such as standards which can be improved continuously through a combination of both research and legislation 24.5.3.
Integrating inside-out and outside-in practices through pioneering value chain innovations and addressing social constraints to competitiveness are powerful tools for creating economic and social value,
There is no doubt that innovations in international relations and regulations are embedded in globalisation and glocalisation. Similarly, innovations in international agreements on trade, standards of all kinds, intellectual property rights, environmental matters, health and safety and human rights are involved all, often interactively,
in the emergence of new forms of governance as globalisation and glocalisation develop. The‘joker in the pack'is international conflict
On the same theme The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2008 opened with calls from the Co-Chairs to exercise‘‘The Power of Collaborative Innovation''to meet the top challenges of economic instability, climate change and equitable growth.
The conditions for democratic governance of technology and innovation need to be acknowledged and discussed. Rather than just opening dialogue between science and society solely in terms of environmental or health impacts, there is a need to tackle broader social concerns such as ethical and cultural values, power relations,
Any new mantra for FTA needs to recognise the obsolescence of the conventional mantra of invention and innovation as primary supports to‘growth'economics.
In contrast innovation is the widespread use of an artefact, a social process in the widest sense,
while also doing good is that markets don't really work that way, Stanford Social Innovation Review (2005).
In its Science and Innovation Investment Framework 2004 2014, the UK Government committed to establishing a Centre of Excellence in Horizon scanning
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 293 Potential trends Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects,
Trends are those change factors that arise from broadly generalizable change and innovation. They are experienced by everyone
innovations and business-institutional strategies 6. A critical concept associated with being a driver is the level of uncertainty.
and similar innovations create powerful forces that change the business and social environments and personal information practices;
and products and services innovation are familiar, when discontinuities occur in society and government, the changes tend to be more significant
and signs usually associated with early developments in technologies, societal innovations, conflicts, origins of conflicts, etc. that while not easily verifiable from a present day perspective.
Energy 17 Rising cost and crises in oil production Bio-fuel generation Spread of nuclear energy production toward developing countries Lack of energy sources Innovation for new energy sources
familiar bases for economic value, international conflict and innovations may be shifting resulting in loss of control by the old guard actors;
*Cristiano Cagnin b a Australian Centre for Innovation, Australia b European commission, DG Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Spain‘‘Cassandra was a daughter of Hecuba
The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
The scale and direction of innovation is determined by a mix of factors, many specific to a national domain though increasingly less so,
Innovation is both a source of and response to disruptive transformations if broadly conceived in technological, social, organizational and institutional terms.
and the analysis of innovation and research policy with a particular focus on the civil security sector.
He is interested also in the topic of framework conditions of innovation such as public procurement of innovation or standardization.
industrial ecology Search for innovations to boost economic growth and improve the state of the environment VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 311 numbers can also easily be considered as neutral
2. innovations, courage and pioneering; and 3. economy, employment, entrepreneurship and wellbeing. The Committee also paid attention in its statement to the fact that the government foresight report chose as its only starting point the success of the Copenhagen Climate Agreement.
In the near future, these innovations will allow NRAMK to be one of the first mass manufactured nanotechnology products.
we note that the emerging character of nanotechnology provides research opportunities for innovation and technology studies.
Economy, Pinter, London, 1984, pp. 78 101.4 J. M. Utterback, Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1994.16 For example, one of the components
Rutger van Merkerk is currently a Phd student (Copernicus Institute for Sustainability and Innovation, University of Utrecht,
Harro van Lente is currently assistant professor at the Copernicus Institute for Sustainability and Innovation University of Utrecht, The netherlands.
Since then he has been involved in a wide range of studies in the area of technology, innovation and society.
and was involved in various consultancy projects on innovation and organisation. His current research focuses on prospective studies of nanotechnology.
B Promote an educational system that transmits the values of sustainability, innovation, social commitment and solidarity.
B Modify mobility patterns by incorporating technological and energy innovations. B Modernize public administration so that it can implement an advanced, transparent governance model.
This has been mainly due to the increasing importance of technological and organisational innovation; the development of service economies;
there is a significant shift away from a direct governmental participation in the innovation process towards a concentration of national governments on the shaping of framework conditions for innovation.
These potential innovations offer numerous benefits. There are great expectations among policymakers, scientists and industry representatives that nanotechnology may
As so-called, denabling technologies',they are technological prerequisites for numerous innovations in many technological fields from comparatively simple technologies for every day use (like cosmetics or pigments in paints),
or-related innovations are claimed for nanotechnology. However, some of the ideas for products or visions for applications raise also considerable questions with respect to their nontechnical implications.
SME are important drivers of some European industrial sectors and potential users of nanomaterials-based innovations.
and applications and supporting more reliable judgements on the realism of or hurdles for innovations discussed.
shaping and defining research and innovation agendas (2011 FTA Conference Scientific Committee. 1 An even more basic question raised during the conference relates to
and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovations in organisations and governance',
He argued that innovation policies should be better fine tuned to support the emergence of innovation networks and innovation ecosystems.
He saw innovation policies as horizontal policies that cover the whole innovation system by shaping a favourable innovation environment.
'and showing how innovation leads to unpredictability that cannot be removed by more accurate data or incremental improvements in existing predictive models.
Cagnin and Loveridge focus on innovation networks by suggesting a dynamic framework of continual learniin that enables a business to develop a capacity to anticipate
The authors explore how the 10-step‘Forecasting Innovation Pathways'analytical approach can be systematised through the use of Tech Mining.
They combine qualitative and quantitative tools in aiming to identify potential innovation pathways. The approach proposed is applied to the development of Dye-Sensitized Solar cells (DSSCS),
Denning (2005) on the use of narrative tools in combination with strategic analysis for addressing transformational innovation.
Transformational innovation: A journey by narrative. Strategy & Leadership 33, no. 3: 11 6. Edsall, R,
When disruptive and downstream innovations become frequent, ontological unpredictability becomes increasingly important for innovation policy and strategy.
innovation; creattiv evolution Introduction Predictions about future almost always fail. In this paper, the epistemic and ontological causes for this failure are described and their implications for foresight, innovation policy,
'and shows how innovation leads to unpredictability that cannot be removed by more accurate data or incremental improvements in existing predictive models.
ranging from innovation and technology studies to a Bergsonian analysis of creative evolution, theory of autopoietti and anticipatory systems,
showing that downstream innovation leads to a practically important form of ontological unpredictability. It then introduces Bergson's model of creative evolution,
The analysis described in this paper essentially indicates that innovation and predictive models are theoretically incompatible.
and innovation, instead of relying on data collected using historically important categories and measurement instruments. Economic and social trends measure what used to be important
To understand how innovation generates progress we have to reconsider some key concepts that underlie future-oriented analysis and strategic management.
and information networks make distributed downstream innovation increasingly visible. Ontological unpredictability thus becomes importaan for technology analysis, foresight,
as well as for characterising the limitations of evidence-based policy-making in innovation-intensive societies and economies.
The prototypical narrative of the traditionalwestern model of innovation can be found from the first chapter of Genesis. The 1769 version of King James Bible tells us how cattle
Downstream innovation and relational monsters The Genesis essentially depicts a linear model of creation where an‘upstream'heroic innovator is the true source of novelty.
Also the common distinction between radical and incremental innovations implicitly relies on prescient classification of the innovation in question.
In this model, innovation occurs when social practice changes. The history of innovations and technical change shows that‘heroic innovators'are located often in the downstream.
Innovative ideas abound, parallel innovation is unintended frequent uses become drivers of development, and socially and economically important innovations are invented often several times before they eventually start to have real impact.
The true innovative step in general, occurs when a potential user group finds a meaningful way to integrate latent innovative opportunities in the current social practice (Tuomi 2002).
In contrast to the traditional heroic‘upstream'innovation model, downstream models emphasise the active role of current and future users.
In the early work ofvon Hippel (1976,1988), the users were innovative users of existing products.
In models that emphasise the role of social practices and social interaction as the key loci of innovation (Engel 1997;
Innovation and social learning in the context of the local downstream systems of meaning then become key drivers for the evolution of technology.
This view allows for the fact that some innovations are more radical and revolutionary than others.
Some innovations are simple improvements of existing practice. Others however, can appropriately be called revolutions, and their realisation requires power struggles (Hughes 1983;
however, impossible to categorise a particular innovation based on the characteristics of a technical artefact before it is used.
The proper unit of analysis of innovation is thus‘innovation-in use'.'The same artefact Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 739 can be used for many different purposes in many different social practices, each with its own developmental trajectories.
It also shifts the locus of innovation from the‘upstream'to the‘downstream'.'A practical consequence of this relocation of locus of innovation to the downstream is that human upstream inventors rarely know,
or can know, what their inventions will be. The dominant constraints and resources for innovation are often far beyond the reach
and control of heroic upstream creators. Innovations become real in the context of use, and this requires stocks of knowledge
and systems of meaning that are located in communities of users and social practice. The true nature of the beast is revealed only when someone domesticates it.
Ontological expansion and creative evolution Downstream innovation in the history of telephony If asked about the history of the telephone
Innovation as creative evolution According to Schumpeter, innovation can be defined as a historic and irreversible change in the way of doing things.
Although Schumpeter went on to further define innovation as those changes in the production function that cannot be decomposed into infinitesimal steps,
innovation is, however, about revolution, and it is a fundamentally social phenomenon. Important historical innovations such as fire-making
and the creation of the Phoeniciia alphabet or the wheel are primarily social innovations. Some revolutions remain small
or adaptive innovations. Sometimes revolutions are more radical. The essence of innovation, however, is in its ontological discontinuity
and in its capacity to create directionality in time. Technical change as élan vital Innovation thus creates phenomenologically new domains of being and action.
But what directs and drives this process? One possibility is to take the Bergsonian model of evolution seriously
In other words, the left-hand side is the generator of innovations, as defined by Schumpeter. The fundamental reason for ontological unpredictability is,
if we take innovation seriously. The Bergsonian rationality includes more than the limited rationality that can exist after ontologies are fixed.
if we want to understand innovation, creativity, and evolution. Ogilvy (2011) has argued recently that scenario developers
Innovation expands the ontological space, making previously invisible aspects of the world visible and relevant for modelling.
Innovation changes the way the natural system itself needs to be constructed. Ontological expansion means that we do need not a better model;
In general, the data required for formal models are available only in domains where innovation has not been important,
only if innovation remains unimportant. For example, data on phone calls or callers could not have been used to predict industry developments
if innovation is unimportaant Specifically, there is little reason to believe that conventional‘impact analysis'models could lead to useful insights if innovation matters.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 748 I. Tuomi In general facts exist only for natural systems that have associated measurement instruments and established encodings and decodings between the natural system and its formal model.
It is therefore very difficult to formally model systems when innovation matters. Policies that are legitimised by facts,
because it inherently neglects innovation and knowledge creation. When innovation is important, foresight efforts therefore could more appropriately be located around the problem of articulating natural systems,
instead of formulating predictive models. In other words, the focus of future-oriented analysis should be learning, problem redefinition, and innovative construction of new empirically relevant categories, not predictive modelling.
if we also assume that these societies are transforming towards knowledge societies where innovation is an important economic factor.
or economics are structurally unable to encompass ontological expansion and innovation. They should therefore be used with caution.
If innovation is importaant we probably should give relatively little weight for trend extrapolations, what if analyses,
and time-series data and instead facilitate creativity and embrace innovation. Notes 1. Uncertainty, of course, has been a central theme in much of economic theory since Knight.
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Ontological uncertainty and innovation. Journal of Evolutionary economics 15, no. 1: 3 50. Latour, B. 1996.
In Essays on entrepreneurs, innovations, business cycles and the evolution of capitalism, ed. R. V. Clemence, 134 49.
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where invention and innovation move at an alarming pace. The contrast to the inexorable, but slower pace of ecological change is stark,
the daily production of research and innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 771 Table 1. Functions of foresight for policy-making.
which translates the strategic orientation of governmental actors into research and innovation priorities. The arena includes research funding and related agencies and mediates between the governmental actors and the research actors.
and outcomes become part of innovation races Networking Stakeholder participation tend to reproduce repertoires The newly established networks will start to promote the vision Participants may press their version of the future Building visions Foresight outcomes will not Be built very original visions may have unintended consequences
In the case of priority-setting, foresight will reinforce innovation races: governments tend to follow the choices of other governments.
The role of technological expectations in a mixed model of international diffusion of process innovations:
Normative expectations in systems innovation. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 299 311. Berube, D. M. 2006.
The neglected role of user innovation during adoption. Research policy 30, no. 5: 819 36. Eames, M.,W. Mcdowall, M. Hodson,
Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 5: 608 26.
Qualitative futures research for innovation. Phd thesis (Delft University of Technology), Delft: Eburon. Van Lente, H. 1993), Promising technology.
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as macro trends in the global environment are translated down into priorities for action in specific innovation fields.
where a specific research unit (an‘Innovation Field')has been established for each of the company business segments.
The main task of each Innovation Field is to elaborate a‘Picture of the Future'for its target segment
Future research efforts can build on literature on innovation and managerial cognition (Tripsas and Gavetti 2000) for investigating how to identify discontinuous drivers
His main research fields are foresight methodologies and strategic management of technology and innovation. He has presented on these themes at international conferences
Foresight and innovation in the context of industrial clusters: The case of some Italian districts.
Integrating the future business environment into innovation and strategy. International Journal of Technology management 34, nos. 3 4: 278 95.
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