The continuous improvement cycle found in the PDCA is the key process for driving learning and innovation in an organisation.
and integrated across the net-Collaborative innovation and continuous sustainability performance improvement system, inter-group learning-Values (universal principles) embedded in every process Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technollogy Development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
and sharing through the network to achieve a dynamic process of innovation, learning and continuous improvement Motivation Making available the necessary tools and an environmental where collaborators share responsibility
based on universal principles, cooperation, innovation and continuous learning, but also based on the diverse range of feedback and partnership the company is able to build.
as a consequence, processes of innovation and the changes needed for survival and to sustain competitive responsible advantages in the future.
in the current interlinked innovation meta-system, research and technollog organisations (RTOS) would benefit from developing two systemic capacities:
and innovation services to enterprises, governments, and other clients. Arnold, Clark, and Jávorka (2010,7) assert that RTOS play important roles in the European innovation system and in de facto European research area policies,
the innovation activity, and indeed the entire activity field of organisations, has been conceptualised as relational practices, that is,
For example, Smits and Kuhlmann (2004,11) argue that innovation is a systemic activity that‘involves a variety of actions within the system,
and different tasks in the innovation network (see Könnölä et al. 2009). It is possible to make a distinction between two roadmapping cultures.
and even towards fostering a visionary innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 838 T. Ahlqvist et al. culture at the level of nation-states.
The Nordic ICT Foresight aimed to foster the visionary notions of‘Nordic innovation culture'and‘common strategy region'in the context of ICT applications.
Her special interest lies in enhancing innovations provoked by societal concerns for the well-being of the ageing society and for cleaner environment.
Lecture at the roadmapping course for DIIRD (Department of Industry, Innovation and Regional development), Victoria, Australia.
Publication of Nordic Innovation Centre. Ahlqvist, T.,V. Valovirta, and T. Loikkanen. 2012. Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forwardloookin policy design.
From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory.
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways Ying Guo a, Tingting Ma a, Alan L. Porter b & Lu
Ying Guo, Tingting Ma, Alan L. Porter & Lu Huang (2012) Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 843-861, DOI:
8 september 2012,843 861 Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways Ying Guoa Tingting Maa, Alan L. Porterb and Lu Huanga*aschool of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of technology, Beijing, China;
This paper explores the systematisation of the‘Forecasstin Innovation Pathways'analytical approach through the application oftech Mining.
Forecasting Innovation Pathways; Newand Emerging science andtechnologies; Tech Mining; nanotechnology; dye-sensitised solar cells, technology intelligence 1. Introduction New and Emerging science and Technologies(‘NESTS')are studied increasingly because of their potentially important‘emerging applications'.
Capturing and exploring multiple potential innovation pathways show considerable promise as a way of informing technology management and research policy.
We have devised a 4-stage, 10-step approach to Forecast Innovation Pathways(‘FIP'.'This process integrates (a) heavily empirical‘Tech Mining'with (b) heavily expert-based multipath mapping.
These include innovation system modelling, text mining of Science, Technology & Innovation(‘ST&I')information resources, trend analyses, actor analyses,
It explores the promise of this approach through its application to two illustrative innovation situations:
'Anticipating innovation pathways can assist R&d managers as they set priorities, new product managers as they compose development teams,
and national policy-makers as they formulate infrastructures to encourage innovation. 2. Background 2. 1. Tech Mining and FTAS Bibliometrics counting activity levels and identifying patterns in R&d bibliographic records,
which emerging technologies contribute to commercial innovation. To facilitate the analysis of technological change, Hekkert et al. 2007) articulate‘functions of innovation systems'.
'Some researchers look into what kind of innovation transfer is most effective (e g. Liu, Tang, and Zhu 2008;
Early identification of likely innovations can help discern opportunities, foster energy transitions, and foresee societal impacts beneficial,
and representing (1) key enterprise (to‘deliver'an innovation) and (2) contextual factors (impinging on such delivery).
In our paper, the concept of TDS recognises the inherent uncertainties of innovation pathways. Ezra (1975) offered a TDS to help explain why solar energy innovation in residential housing applications was not notably successful.
Wenk and Kuehn (1977) advance TDS as a form of socio-technical system conceptual modelling to help identify the pivotal elements involved in innovation.
By‘innovation',we mean a novel technical contribution effectively translated into a successful product or process (i e. commercialisation.
Our TDS considers enterprise elements needed to effect innovation and it points out influential factors in the immediate nanobiosensor environment.
We seek key leverage points at which the innovation pathways can be influenced strongly. The elements that appear in a TDS depiction change from application to application.
For instance, Shi, Porter, and Rossini (1985) developed a TDS for microcomputer technology in developing countries,
and available human knowledge of the particular innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 846 Y. Guo et al. system, within the context of a more general innovation context (i e. the socioeconomic context in
and potential users (Step E). Figure 1. Framework for forecasting NEST innovation pathways. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 847 Step J,
and stakeholders (Step G). Convening a workshop with multiple perspectives can anchor Step G exploration of alternative innovation pathways.
'That is, what important hurdles must be surmounted along the various innovation pathways? What key policy and/or business management leverage points enhance the prospects of success?
The aim is to synthesise what has been revealed about alternative innovation pathways for the NEST under study.
and expert knowledge to lay out candidate innovation paths (Steps F and G, with J). Detailing how the solar cells function (Step A is treated only briefly (Appendix 2). DSSC R&d (Step C) profiling outputs are illustrated selectively.
but we favour its distinct treatment of (1) the enterprise (organisations with requisite capabilities) to develop the innovation
Our TDS considers enterprises pursuing DSSC innovations, and it points out influential factors in the immediate solar cell development environment.
which the innovation pathways can be influenced strongly. Figure 2 presents our TDS targeted at the USA we chose this national focus to focus on a set of key actors.
In terms of the enterprises to accomplish commercial innovation based on DSSC technology, we sketch three loose groups of companies.
In the long term, we believe that general Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 849 Figure 2. TDS for DSSCS in the USA. economic forces will favour innovation
We worked our way back from that intended innovation to identifying particular attributes that could contribute importantly to it (e g. light-transmitting solar cells.
4. 5. Lay out alternative innovation pathway (Step F, with Step J) This stage was completed in two rounds.
This focused on mapping likely innovation avenues, following the process described and demonstrated by Robinson and Propp (2008).
4. 6. Explore innovation components (Step G) Figure 7 provides the framework to explore sensitivities and options.
Potential innovation pathwaay can be reshaped; key promising technologies can be identified and positioned in a time frame;
Such visualisation of a pathway can play a central role in exploring innovation routes for a potentially disruptive NEST,
So how do suggested the NEST innovation pathways compare with alternatives? A first step is to broaden the technology assessment beyond the technology alone,
Is the risk framework adequaate The innovation pathways call attention to a need to address such issues that could affect DSSC development
This, in turn, should help array strong candidate innovation pathways. We are investigating DSSC technical component developments through patent analyses that combine text mining, semantic/syntactic analyses,
Rantanen and Domb 2002) to help locate current capabilities along innovation pathways. This paper extends our FIP approach.
It is effective in identifying the first-round potential innovation pathways and then zooming into these through augmented expert engagement exercisses The richness of the data is unquestionable,
and contextual attributes, affecting the prospects for effective applicatioons Drawing attention to innovation pathways (e g.
time horizons for innovation, and scope of study all reinforce the need to adapt these 10 steps to one's priorities.
particularly focusing on how to forecast the likely innovation pathways for emerging nano-related technologies and applications.
Strategic intelligence for an innovation economy. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-verlag. Chesbrough, H. W. 2006. Open innovation: A new paradigm for understanding industrial innovation.
In Open innovatiion Researching a new paradigm, ed. H. W. Chesbrough, W. Vanhaverbeke, and J. West, 109 20.
Forecasting innovation pathways: The case of nano-enhanced solar cells. ITICTI International Conference on Technological innovation and Competitive Technical intelligence, Beijing.
Forecasting innovation pathways for new and emerging science & technologies. Technological forecasting & Social Change, doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2011.06.004.
ICT, management and globalization are common factors that would be critical to promote innovations in these areas.
Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.
Expectation for innovation through scientific and technological development is building up in this situation, and many countries have shown a clear tendency to place special focus on science and technology policy in their innovation strategies.
In the USA,‘‘A Strategy for American Innovation: Driving towards Sustainable growth and Quality Jobs''was formulated in 2009 (Executive Office of the President, 2009),
which was revised as‘‘A Strategy for American Innovation: Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity''in 2011 (National Economic Council, 2011.
The European commission released‘‘Innovation Union''as a flagship initiative in Europe 2020 (European commission, 2010. In Japan, the status of science and technology policy in the national grand strategy has changed significantly as its GDP growth rate stagnates in the face of intensified international competition and a falling birth rate and aging population.
In conjunction with this principle, a call for innovation through scientific and technological development was mentioned first clearly in the Third Basic Plan.
It is expected that converging technologies will trigger innovation and lead to the solution of social issues in the future.
Currently activities aim to discuss innovations that have the potential to change society for the better.
which are expected to be the main players for addressing global or national challenges through innovation in the future.
Based on the discussion, four global or national challenges were set as the goals of science, technology and innovation.
2. sustainable growth through green innovation; 3. successful model for healthy-aging society; and 4. secure life. 2. 2 Delphi Delphi is characterized by repeated questions for the collective convergence of opinions,
and technology that achieve innovation success to resolve challenges in the future. However, investigative studies that are implemented in parallel do not give a comprehensive and panoramic view.
and technology for realizing innovation for solutions to the challenges. The procedure is shown in Figure 2. 4. Expected innovation 4. 1 Relations between Delphi topics and scenarios On average,
one scenario has 4 percent of Delphi topics with scores greater than 100, and 75 percent of them with scores less than 30.
indicating their status as common infrastructure. 4. 3 Areas where innovation is expected in the future The Delphi survey identified 36 key areas out of all 94 areas set by the panels,
and environment on the left side can be regarded as indicating the first group of expected innovation toward resolving the challenges in the future society
of social innovation and network building 11-E Management of humans, creation, management, and transfer of knowledge, education,
The collaboration of these base technologies including ICT with mainstream innovation will be discussed further in the next section. 5. Common factors for future innovation As stated in section 3,
and technology that have the potential to make innovation happen and contribute to the solution of four challenges directly or indirectly.
1. green-related innovation; and 2. life-related innovation. This section discusses how base technologies in common are expected to become engaged in the two potentialities. 5. 1 Examination from positions of key areas As shown in Table I,
14 key areas are categorized as‘‘Others, ''meaning areas that are related not green or life-related areas.
service management and social innovation are positioned near life-related areas, which indicates that innovative progress will be made in health and medical care through collaboration with ICT and management technology.
which shows green innovation has a close relation to the international standpoint. Areas related to space and ocean sciences and materials science are positioned near the center and show no direct relation to the two potentialities of innovation:
this indicates that these areas will play a role as a general-purpose technology or as a source of cutting-edge technology providing ground-level support to the concrete contributions of other technologies.
and technology is indispensable for discussing the desired future. 6. Conclusion To bring about innovation in society through the effective use of the fruits of science
Through this process, many findings come into view as to what should have priority for promoting innovation.
management and globalization, should be emphasized in connection with the promotion of innovation in these two areas.
A Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth, European commission, Brussels. Executive Office of the President (2009), A Strategy for American Innovation:
National Economic Council (2011), Strategy for American Innovation: Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity, National Economic Council, Council of economic advisors, Office of Science and Technology policy, WASHINGTON DC.
VA. National science Foundation (2005),‘Managing nano-bio-info-cogno innovations: converging technology society'',National science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Popper, R. 2008),‘How are selected foresight methods?''
Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
in securing employment and in reaching and setting benchmarks of innovation capability, effective alignment of stakeholders can be regarded as one of the prerequisites for national wealth and well-being.
the definition of general conditions to push invention and innovation, the identification of potential constraints that might stem from economical, technological or societal implications, an assessment of the relevance for basic education and advanced training as well as the consideration of ethical and legal aspects.
5. 3 Strategic dialogue to develop a model for public private partnerships A third example of a successful strategic dialogue was the definition of a novel type of innovation cluster across academia and industry implemented as public private partnerships.
The resulting outline of a possible new type of innovation cluster has proved to be stable throughout further discussions in various policymaking contexts
Meister, H. and Oldenburg, F. 2008),‘Foresight und Innovation: Zukunfts denken Heute gestalten'',Beteiligung ein Programm fu r Wirtschaft, Politik und Gesellschaft, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 119-38.
It aims to present a recent Irish case study that identified grand challenges in the national context, with their implications for research and innovation.
innovation and grand challenges. Findings The emergence of grand challenges within research and innovation policy discourse in Europe has refreshed key questions for foresight theory and practice.
Although many grand challenges have relatively clear implications for research and innovation (investment), others do not.
Practical implications Not all research and innovation priorities are linked to grand challenges. National policies need to take account of grand challenges
whilst continuing to support other research and innovation needs. Originality/value The paper introduces a novel approach for identifying grand challenges and responses within the research and innovation system through a bottom-up process.
Keywords Foresight Grand challenges, Research and innovation policy, Research prioritization, Forward planning, Innovation, Ireland Paper type Case study 1. Introduction Foresight methods have been used widely around the world to enable the research
and remains a key objective of investment in research and innovation programmes. However, another factor has emerged in the European context,
which has had an influence on the research and innovation agenda: the concept of‘‘grand challenges''or‘‘grand societal challenges''.
However, with the increasing acceptance of grand challenges, Foresight is expected to make a contribution to orienting innovation towards broader issues (Georghiou et al.
Several issues are addressed that are relevant for those interested in foresight, research and innovation, and grand challenges.
Technological development and Innovation (RTDI) programmes hitherto has focused on economic competitiveness in an increasingly globalised business environment.
Specifically, the issue identified was the effective marshalling of research, technological and innovation funds to support broad goals for Europe.
technological and innovation knowledge geared towards large challenges. It calls on European institutions and Member States to focus European research on the major challenges facing our world.
A further milestone in the explicit recognition of directing research and innovation resources towards grand challenges came with the publication of a report on the European Technology platforms by DG Research (European commission DG Research, 2010.
and support in RTDI towards addressing grand challenges in areas such as energy, resources, demographic change, health and security. 3. Irish foresight project on global drivers and their implications for research and innovation:
The Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Innovation asked‘‘that the group focus on areas that will yield the best return for taxpayers'investment in research and ultimately
distribution and competitiveness Innovation and companies Ireland has a relatively modest‘‘home''market and is therefore reliant to a significant extent on its enterprise base
Gain a broader understanding of creativity and innovation and their role in the application of research within enterprises and more broadly across society Establish better ways of judging
Although this may not appear a‘‘conventional''research and innovation problem, it emerged as a grand challenge reflecting key uncertainties of senior decision-makers operating in a small state as it adapted to changing external conditions in economics and governance.
For these challenges, it was difficult to conceive of strategic responses based on research and innovation. Even where there is a consensus on grand challenges,
The challenges may be easier to determine than the research and innovation responses: although problems or challenges can be contested,
This is not a conventional innovation problem yet was regarded still as a national challenge in its broadest sense.
menu/standard/file/lund declaration final version 9 july. pdf 2. The author was a member of the team that was appointed to carry out the work on behalf of Forfa's. The team was made of CM International (lead contractor) and the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation
About the author Martin Rhisiart is Director of the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation at the University of Glamorgan.
Keywords Priority-setting, Russia, Natural resources, Long term planning, Foresight project planning, Innovation, Technology led strategy, Sciences Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In recent years
technology and innovation (S&t&i) priorities have become an integral part of government policy making in almost all developed countries,
1995), Norway (Nordic Innovation Centre, 2007), Canada (National research council Canada, 2005) and other developed countries have accumulated significant experience with such projects.
of which include the low level of innovation activities of Russian companies, an underdeveloped innovation infrastructure, inefficient legislation, etc.
Therefore, identifying S&t and innovation priorities for the natural resources sector has become an extremely important issue
and a description of specific innovation projects was required for policy decision-making. Therefore for this additional investigation the RF Ministry of Education and Science initiated the second cycle of the National S&t Foresight until 2030.
Eighty-two topics were formulated for these five thematic areas, in the form of briefly described S&t results, promising technologies or innovation products (e g.‘‘
and possible innovation projects for the most important S&t fields. The National S&t Foresight: 2030 was based on the FS1 results and also on a renewed version of the National S&t priorities and Critical technologies.
An important new methodological aspect was the development of roadmaps, the identification of potential large-scale innovation projects,
Experts also estimated the potential for implementing large-scale innovative projects based on the results achieved and the market prospects for relevant innovation products.
Among the most promising innovation projects selected by experts were: B combined solid minerals extraction and deep processing systems (2010-2015;
Probably the only way to bridge this gap is to identify new innovation priorities for the Russian management system;
the identification of such priorities was the objective of FS3. 3. 3 Innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector (FS3) Innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector for the period until 2025
‘‘Innovation priorities''in the above study were considered to be major activities in the Russian natural resources sector's management system that would contribute to achieving the RF S&t priorities and solving the main problems in the area.
The innovation priorities until 2025 for the development of the Russian natural resources sector was developed on the basis of identification of the most important problems and challenges regarding the natural resources sector's management system and necessary conditions for S&t development.
two main criteria were used for the identification of innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector, i e.:
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 47 As a result of this study, the innovation priorities and corresponding tasks were formulated for each structural component of the natural resources sector.
As an example, below are presented priorities for innovation-based development of the‘‘industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage''sphere:
One of the tasks for the innovation priority‘‘Creation of Mechanisms for Elimination of Cumulative Ecological Damage''was‘‘Development of a legal mechanism of responsibility for cumulative ecological damage,
Figure 2 The overall structure of the study PAGE 48 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 The results of both projects have become an important information source for the follow-up FS3 project devoted to innovation
and demands for the identification in FS3 of innovation priorities (see Table III). So all three projects were interrelated with each other in terms of their structure, criteria and results.
Figure 3 The general scheme of the structure of projects interrelation VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 49 B design of large-scale innovation projects;
B regional priorities for innovation development; and B priorities for international S&t co-operation. However, the real contribution of the Delphi study results to the development of policy documents was mostly indirect
promising innovation projects and other information required for policy decision-making. These tasks were solved in the FS2 framework.
and perspective innovation projects for investment. The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
The RF Ministry of Education and Science used the lists of the most important innovation
of markets and segments where Russia can improve its position Detailed description of chosen groups The most important innovation projects The most important research projects In particular,
and this is preventing S&t development Innovation priorities for the Russian management system in the natural resources area, which should create conditions for S&t development
and promote solving the key problems identified in the FS2 framework FS3 An identification of innovation priorities for the Russian management system in natural resources until 2030 The innovation priorities
Also, suggestions for amendments to strategic documents of RF Ministries were proposed Update of the list of innovation priorities PAGE 50 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 create an adequate management system for the sector.
Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector.
and the large number of players, imply the need to use integrated approaches for identifying S&t and innovation priorities for this sector.
The innovation and S&t priorities for the Russian natural resources sector were identified in the framework of three connected foresight projects.
design of large-scale innovation projects identification of research projects to be funded within federal and sectoral goal-oriented S&t programmes designing sectoral strategies for industries regional priorities for innovation development priorities
The RF Ministry of Education and Science used the lists of the most important innovation
Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector Direct (high) VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 51
Also, major innovation projects were identified with the promise of high economic and social return. On the basis of this project recommendations for Russian S&t policy which include the most important research
and innovation projects were prepared. The RF Ministry of Education and Science used the lists compiled as a basis for selection of the projects to be funded.
The FS3 course identified the innovation priorities and corresponding tasks for improving the management system the Russian natural resources sector,
which would contribute to its innovation-based development and help to solve major environmental problems. The results of this project were strongly related to policy decision-making,
S&t for the 21st century'',Foresight Consolidation Report, available at www. nrc-cnrc. gc. ca/Nordic Innovation Centre (2007),‘Foresight in Nordic innovation systems'',Nordic Innovation
Keywords Strategic technology foresight, Competitive technology intelligence, Delphi topic analysis, International patent classification system, Sustainable energy, Innovation, Forward planning Paper type Research paper 1
Japan has utilized the result of the 8th Foresight activity to form the Innovation 25 policy and the result of the 3rd Foresight activity of South korea has resulted in 21 future technology areas.
and in particular to identify innovation potentials and niches within technology trends where Austria might find opportunities to achieve leadership within the next 15 years (Aichholzer, 2001).
NO 1 2013 jforesight jpage 57 intellectual property (IP) system that rewards creativity, stimulates innovation
There is long history in economics of the use of patent data to understand the process of invention and innovation (Griliches, 1990;
Tichy, G. 1999),‘The innovation potential and thematic leadership of Austrian industries: an interpretation of the technology Delphi with regard to the old structure/high-performance paradox'',Institute of technology Assessment, Vienna, available at:
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