elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
and using scenarios and orienting innovation systems and research priorities 6. Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 Corresponding author.
and using scenarios lead to the expected direct and indirect inputs for orienting innovation systems? These concerns are legitimate
we analyze several scenario exercises to better understand the role future scenarios can play as a tool for orienting innovation systems.
In Section 5, we further discuss our findings addressing how scenario practice can orientate innovation systems in the view of the grand challenges.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 2. Material and methods How can we learn about orienting innovation systems from future scenario practice?
futures thinking and scenarios 3. 1. Innovation systems Innovation involves the application of new ideas or the reapplication of old ideas in new ways to develop better solutions to our needs 31.
The concept of national innovation systems is rooted in evolutionary economic theorizing on socio-technical change 33 35.
An innovation system is never static; it evolves with alterations in the content of technologies and products as well as in the relationships among various other innovation systems.
Due to the socially dynamic characteristic of innovation 37, new socio-technical (sub systems will emerge over time 22.
By consequence, innovation systems are described as networks of actors and institutions that develop, diffuse and use innovations 38.
This complexity challenges the capacity of innovation systems to acknowledge the social dimension of innovation and to learn from experience.
The question that emerges is how we can learn from using and developing future scenarios to assist in the orientation of innovation systems?
or discovery, it is also about adaptation and emergence of new innovation systems 31. Principles on how to orient innovation systems through future scenarios will require conditions for collaboration.
Table 2 Linking groups of future scenario practice from a policy perspective with modes of future thinking.
or contributions to the enablers for orientating innovation systems through future scenarios (i e. pros and cons). Our analysis of the case studies listed in Appendix 1 suggests that a variety of modes of futures thinking,
and using future scenarios as a tool for orienting innovation systems. Our analyses of the scenario case studies from Appendix 1 revealed elements of good practice and implications on how to better address innovation through future scenarios.
In this paper, we argue that these modes of futures thinking are shown to contribute in different ways to orientating innovation systems.
We also want to Table 3 Different modes of futures thinking for orienting innovation systems via future scenarios.
and cons with respect to orient innovation systems Intuitive Surprise and confrontation Think the unthinkable and conceptualize future situations where uncertainties are high Allows strong imagination including alternative futures that are competing Weak on acceptance,
and defining areas for innovation Weak on complexity of socio-technological systems Evolutionary Interaction Engage in sustainable pathways enabling transformations of innovation systems Allows a systemized negotiation process linking a variety of social actors
Innovation systems are complex and dynamic and scenario practice is applied more widely than our sample. Therefore, when using reflexivity in research or in scenario practice,
Thirdly, we want to emphasize that the social dimension in innovation systems should be acknowledged as a legitimate research area
, E. A. Eriksson, T. Malmér, B. A. Mölleryd, Foresight in Nordic innovation systems, Nordic Innovation Centre, Oslo, 2007.7 T. J. Chermack, Studying scenario planning:
http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf). 10 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:
Integrating Insights, Transforming Institutions and Shaping Innovation systems, Seville, 12 13,may 2011, 2011.11 A. Webster, Technologies in transition, policies in transition:
Chang. 65 (2000) 23 29.24 B. Carlsson, S. Jacobsson, M. Holmén, A. Rickne, Innovation systems: analytical and methodological issues, Res.
Smits, Functions of innovation systems: a new approach for analyzing technological change, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 74 (2007) 413 432.41 M. S. Jørgensen, Visions and visioning in foresight activities, in:
The aim of the paper is to show what problems/challenges with regard to the innovation system have been addressed and
and to address national innovation systems. In the case of nanotechnology, a variety of FTA ACTIVITIES have been in use over the last quarter of a century to structure the field itself
In both countries, the public policy activities to foster nanotechnology were accompanied by efforts to establish governance structures to coordinate interactions between actors of the innovation system.
and preparation of funding programs) and to influence the national innovation systems by implementing nanotechnology programs and nanotechnology regulatory structures in later stages.
combining insights from innovation systems and multilevel perspective in a comprehensivefailures'framework, Research policy 41 (2012) 1037 1042.
(2011) 808 final, 2011 12 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Sci.
because it highlights the need to understand interconnected innovation systems, ways of being responsive to diverse languages and cultures,
or to account for the actual evolution of industrial research and innovation systems. On the foresight side not only was there considerable confusion and conflict at the level of methods,
and on the other hand, an account of ways to think about policy options based on the indeterminacy of complex emergent innovation systems
r. miller@unesco. org Philine Warnke Innovation systems Department, Research, Technology & Innovation policy, AIT Austrian Institute of technology Gmbh, Donau-City-Strasse 1, 1220
The first principle is interconnected understanding innovation systems. This principle ensures that participants position the foresight exercise and their own activities in a global context.
like any significant international undertaking, calls for clarity, unity, integrity and coherence 3 5. Further design requirements are introduced if the project aims to incorporate international research, innovation systems 6 and the diversity of stakeholders.
Understanding interconnected innovation systems. Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures. Capacity to reconfigure international networks, and aglocal'impact orientation. 2. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems Before starting any foresight venture is important to have a clear idea of the system being analysed
and related interconnected systems (e g. social, technological, economic, environmental, political, value, cultural, among others) 6. Managers of international exercises must also take into account the distinctiveness of local, regional and national subsysstem around the world.
Hence, the further development of transnational research and innovation collaboration benefits from experiences with the vertical coordination of multilayered research and innovation systems.
and dimensions of how foresight processes impact on the innovation systems globally. The consideration ofglocal'foresight impacts is close to the concept ofadaptive foresight coined by Weber 22,
when designing and managing an international foresight exercise. 4. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems In the IMS2020 project the understanding of the global system of sub-systems was attained by mapping scientific literature,
Activities conducted within IMS 2020 Guiding principles for global foresight Understanding interconnected innovation systems Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Capacity to reconfigure international networks A glocal impact orientation
and engaging stakeholders Dissemination of results through the networks Training Tailored dissemination to targeted stakeholders Dissemination in different levels of innovation systems 9 However,
) 219 235.17 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) 140
which are crucial for the competitiveness of national or regional innovation systems. 3 For further information: http://ec. europa. eu/research/era/index en. html. 2 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/intro. html. 458 F
and Innovation policy (IJFIP) 1 (2004) 4 32.6 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:
At the same time, FTA is considered to contribute to enhanced governance modes that improve the performance of innovation systems 41.
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Heidelberg, 2008.40 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science
a new challenge for a regional approach to innovation systems, European Planning Studies 15 (2006) 195 215.17 H. A. von der Gracht, C. R. Vennemann,
At the policy level, considerable effort has already been put into the creation of a new innovation system.
These papers examine the reorientation of research and innovation systems and the integration of FTA within them.
and increasinngl transnational, research and innovation systems can be seen to offer the most effective approach to meeting crosscutting societal challenges.
Cagnin, Amanatidou and Keenan address the roles that FTA can play in orienting the innovation system to more effectively address the grand challenges.
This instruumen adapts the methodology of technology roadmapping to addressing critical innovation policy challennge at the level of national and regional innovation systems, within a global context.
Gu, S. and Lundvall, B.-A°.(2006) China's innovation system and the move towards harmonious growth and endogenous innovation'.
Innovation systems and Policies in the USA, Europe and Asia, pp. 241 63. Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer Verlag.
Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation systems (VINNOVA. Liu, F.-C.,Simon, D. F.,Sun, Y.-T. and Cao, C. 2011) China's innovation policies:
Lv, W. 2007) Enhancing the basic role of knowledge innovattio in the innovation system',China Development Review, 9: 38 47.
The case of Taiwanese pharmaceutical biotechnology and agricultural biotechnology innovation systems (1945 2000) Chao-chen Chung1 1manchester Business school, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9pl, UK.
the sectoral and the technological innovation systems and defines the configuration of these three innovation systems as the national, sectoral and technological innovation systems (NSTISS).
and agricultural biotechnology innovation systems we find that even within the same nation different NSTISS reveal different dynamics, in terms of actors and networks, the application of technology and knowledge and institutions.
innovation system; Taiwan; biotechnology; pharmaceuticals; agriculture. 1. Introduction Over the last two decades scholars working on innovattio systems have established different ways in
The national innovation system focuses on the innovation process within the geographical space of nations (Lundvall 1992;
while the sectoral innovation system emphasizes the innovation of a particulla set of products (Malerba 2002).
The technological innovation system uses a specific knowledge field to draw the boundary of an innovation system (Carlsson et al. 2002;
The configuration of the differeen levels of innovation systems has been discussed to a certain extent (Markard and Truffer 2008.
Consequently, this paper discusses the configuration of innovation systems at three levels: national, sectoral and technological.
We intend to draw the boundary for thenew'innovation system which is embedded in the configuraatio of the three innovation systems.
Moreover, to understand the evolution of the new innovation system we not only examine the components of the innovation system,
but follow Malerba's analysis (Malerba 2005) and explore the changes in the relationships between these components over time.
play an essential role in shaping and fosteriin the development of an innovation system, in this paper we will pay special attention to the role of national institutions in the development of new innovation systems.
Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 271 281 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs008 Advance Access published on 11 march 2012 The Author 2012.
(i e. pharmaceuticals and agriculture) provide an interesting case for our discussiion Historical records for the period 1945 2000 in Taiwan clearly show the process through which the three innovation systems,
i e. the national innovation system of Taiwan, the sectoral innovation systems for pharmaceuticcal and agriculture, and the technological innovation system for biotechnology,
within the same national border of Taiwan differren configurations of the three innovation systems show different dynamics,
To set up a more profound discussion of the configurattio of the three innovation systems we structure the rest of this paper as follows:
Section 2 reviews the literature on innovation systems. On the basis of the literature we conceptualize the configuration of the three innovation systems.
Section 3 analyzes the evolution of the Taiwanese innovation systems for biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and agriculture through the lens of the configuration of the three innovation systems.
Section 4 discusses our concepptua and empirical contributions, draws conclusions and makes suggestions for future research. 2. Literature review
and the configuration of the innovation systems The conception of the configuration of the three innovattio systems is established on the theoretical foundations of different system approaches.
before we build the new concept for an innovation system we first review the key concepts of each approach,
A national innovation system focuses on the national development of technology and industries. The national frontiers draw the boundary of an innovation system.
The institutional actors, such as firms and industrial laboratories, universities and government laboratories, and their networks constitute the national innovation system (Nelson and Rosenberg 1993).
Through comparing the similarities and differences across countries the approach illustrates how the institutions and mechanisms of a nation support technological and industrial innovattio within its borders (Nelson and Rosenberg 1993;
The sectoral innovation system recognizes a system as a set of products which are developed in a global context.
A sectoral innovation system, as analyzed by Malerba (2004), should have a set of specific knowledge bases, inputs and demands.
and institutions are the three blocks of a sectoral innovation system. National institutioons from the perspective of Malerba (2002), should match the sectoral innovation system within the national borders.
The technological innovation system is defined in the sense of a knowledge field which has developed globally. As speculated by Carlsson et al.
Technological generatiion diffusion and utilization are at the core of the analysis. Comparing the energy innovation systems of Germany, Sweden and The netherlands,
According to the literature an innovation system is composed of actors and networks technology and knowledge, and institutions.
However, because a different system approach uses different criteria to draw the boundary of an innovation system,
the components and their interactions in the configuration of the different levels of innovation systems remain unclear.
2008) have specified only that a technological system may be a sub-system of a sectoral innovation system or may cut across several sectoral innovation systems.
Malerba (2004) 272. C.-C. Chung has tried also to link the relationships within a sectoral innovation system to a country's international performannce as well as a sector to the technological opportunities which can be mobilized to develop new products and processes for that sector.
Markard and Truffer (2008) made one of the first attempts to concretely show the configuration of the three innovation systems within one diagram.
From their perspective (see Fig. 1 a national system is delineated on a spatial basis, while a sectoral system usually crosses a geographical boundary,
and define the configuration of the three innovation systems as the NSTIS. We assume that the system exists within a particular national border
as the three innovation systems, is composed of actors and networks, technology and knowledge, and institutions. The components of the system are shaped by national institutions.
such as government documents and the historical records of the institutions embedded in the innovation systems, we will discover how the technological innovattio system for biotechnology gradually emerged with the Taiwanese national innovation system,
as well as the sectoral innovation systems for pharmaceuticals and agriculture. Figure 1. Potential relationships between national (NSI) and sectoral (SSI) systems of innovation and a technological innovattio systems (TS.
Source: Markard and Truffer (2008. Figure 2. Relationship of national, technological and sectoral innovation systems and NSTIS.
National, sectoral and technological innovation systems: Taiwan. 273 3. The Taiwanese pharmaceutical biotechnology and agricultural biotechnology innovation systems This section analyzes the history of biotechnology and the two sectors in Taiwan through the lens of the NSTIS.
We especially focus on the components of each NSTIS and the changes in their interactions over time.
We discuss the evolution of the pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation system in Section 3. 1 and the evolution of the agricultural biotechnology innovation system in Section 3. 2. 3. 1 The evolution of the Taiwanese pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation system
Policies of regulation, FDI and R&d were directed towards the pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation system. The Law of Pharmaceutical Affairs was passed in 1970
Only in the late 1990s did the government start to support the development of modern pharmaceutical biotechnnolog through supporting the innovation of new herbaceous medicines. 3. 2 Evolution of the Taiwanese agricultural biotechnology innovation system 3. 2
The two main agricultural policies promoting agricultuura biotechnology innovation system were agricultural R&d and regulation policies.
Even though the technological level of the agricultural biotechnollog innovation system was very high due to the governmment'policies, these biotechnologies were commercialized seldom. 4. Discussion
and conclusion The Taiwanese pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation system and agricultural biotechnology innovation system reveal different dynamics. The three innovation systems,
i e. the Taiwanese national innovation system, the two sectoral systems of pharmaceuticals and agriculture, and the technological innovation system for biotechnology, were configured differently.
Different NSTISS not only had different components, but also evolved differently. Based on the empirical case of Taiwan we raise four interesttin issues
in the pharmaceuticca biotechnology innovation system local SMES led the innovation and manufacturing. MNCS were involved only once in the manufacturing activities of the system
However, in the agricultuura biotechnology innovation system the public research organizations, the ASS, were the foundations on
In the case of Taiwan there is noset of national institutions'directed towards the overall national innovation system.
With the new concept of an innovation system the NSTIS, the RTDI policies which can appropriately foster the development of an innovation system,
can be reanalyzed. As shown above different NSTISS may have different actors and networks, as well as different applicatiion of a particular technological field for different sets of products.
Their rigorous and constant support fundamentaall incentivized the writing of this paper and considerabbl increased the depth of the analysis of the innovation systems.
Carlsson, B.,Jacobsson, S.,Holme'N m. and Rickne, A. 2002) Innovation systems: Analytical and methodological issues',Research policy, 31: 233 45.
Dodgson, M.,Mathews, J.,Kastelle, T. and Hu, M.-C. 2008) The evolving nature of Taiwan's national innovation systems:
Edquist, C. and Hommen, L.,eds,(2008) Small Country Innovation systems: Globalization, Change and Policy in Asia and Europe.
Kaiser, R. and Prange, H. 2004) The reconfiguration of national innovation systems the example of German biotechnoology'Research policy, 33: 395 408.
(2005) Sectoral innovation systems: how and why innovattio systems differs across sectors'.'In: Nelson, R.,Mowery, D. and Fagerberg, J. eds.
Nelson, R.,ed.,(1993) National Innovation systems: A Comparative analysis. Oxford: OUP. Nelson, R. and Rosenberg, N. 1993) Technical innovation and national systems'.
Nelson, R. ed.)National Innovation systems: A Comparative analysis, pp. 3 20. Oxford: OUP. NSC 2010. Background of National science and Technology Program for Bio agriculture.
OECD. 1999) Managing National Innovation systems. OECD: Paris. Senker, J. 2004) An overview of biotechnology in Europe:
Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play Cristiano Cagnin1*,Effie Amanatidou2 and Michael Keenan3 1dg Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies
in order to effectively reorient the EU's innovation systems towards grand challenges. Keywords: innovation systems; grand challenges; european union; foresight; technology assessment. 1. Introduction Recent years have seen a great deal of discussion on how science,
technology and innovation (STI) systems might be reoriented to better address several grand challenges that affect not only contemporary societies but also the future of human civilisation itself.
Section 3 describes the working of innovation systems around their structural elements focused on actors'capabilities, the scale and nature of system interactions,
which are transposed onto specific contributions to innovation system functions. Section 6 discusses the associated implicattion for international EU research
and innovation collaborration the degree to which recent developments cover the identified needs in the reorientation and governing of innovation systems and STI policies,
Orienting European innovation systems. 141 Innovation refers to a process of introducing a new product process, service or organisational form into the marketplace and the social sphere (OECD and Eurostat 2005;
and that will be affected. 3. Innovation systems and their functioning Thus, innovation can be understood as a systemic activity,
In this view, national innovation systems are complex constructs, displaying a variety of structures in a range of contexts and performing various functions.
The advantages of thinking in terms of innovation systems is that they provide a more complete picture of the topography of innovation-relevant actors and the relations between them
Innovation system analysis often takes as its starting point the system's structure. It is here that innovation system failures that demand policy attention tend to be identified,
focused around actors'capabilities, the scale and nature of system interactions, and the workings of institutions (Arnold 2004;
In many innovation systems, such organisations are either missing or are developed weakly, thereby hindering system performance.
C. Cagnin et al. for innovation systems, since cycles of learning and innovation are less likely to become established
Hence, when innovation systems need to be reoriented, a lot of unlearning and disruption of existing linkages will be required as part of the processes of transformative change..
Bergek et al. 2008) have recommended the functions of innovation system as an alternative point of analytical departure. 1 Such functional analysis,
what is achieved actually in an innovation system. This is a potentially useful perspective for efforts directed at reorienting innovation systems towards grand challenges.
Drawing upon a mix of sources (Bach and Matt 2005; Bergek et al. 2008; Edquist 2008;
Woolthius et al. 2005), the following sixhigh-level'functions of innovation systems can be identified:.Facilitate experimentation and learning:
safeguardingvariety'in the innovation system is key given the uncertainties that follow from new combinations of knowledge, applications and markets.
this is considered to be the most basic function of innovation systems without which nothing else would happen.
given the distributed nature of knowledge production, knowledge diffusion is an essential function of innovation systems. Diffusion may be mediated through networks for example,
it is important for innovation systems to be able to guide actors in selecting options for investment.
particularly for radical innovatiions The innovation system therefore needs to create spaces, for example, through procurement policies, standards or regulations that nurture demand for innovations..
an important function of innovation systems concerns the development and mobilisation of human resources, financial capital and complementary assets (e g. infrastructures.
The mobilisation of resources has important consequences for knowledge development activities. 4. Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges The special nature of the requirements of grand challenges to find effective solutions brings to the fore concepts such as transformative
and Orienting European innovation systems. 143 evolve into this new direction, identifying alternative solutiion and moving away from the current state of affairs.
The structural and functional elements of innovation systems presented above highlight sites for exploitation and intervention in support of grand challenges.
if innovation systems are to be oriented towards grand challenges. Starting with the structural elements, the global charactte of grand challenges and their boundary-spanning nature:
and wider variety of actors involved in innovation systems. Indeed, right at the outset, a more transformative innovattio sets a responsibility to catalyse
Turning to the functions of innovation systems presennte earlier, Table 1 uses these to map a number of actions conducive to systemic reorientation towards grand challenges.
Clearly, the eorientation of innovation systems places particular demands on STI policy and the governance of innovation systems.
In this regard, FTA as a tool of governance could have a promising role to play in reorienting innovattio systems towards grand challenges. 5. FTA for orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges Th paper takes FTA to refer to systematic processes
Thus, FTA can play a number of important roles (see Fig. 1) in orienting innovation systems
and capacity-building among innovation system actors. Fig. 2 illustrates the inter-relatedness of these FTA roles with the innovation system functions outlined earlier in the paper (see Table 1). The inter-relations are summarised in the sub-sections that follow. 5. 1 Informing decision-making
The informing role of FTA most closely relates to the innovation system functions of facilitating experimentatiio and learning, knowledge development,
and directing search and selection. For example, FTA PROCESSES can inform policy-making by providing spaces for experimentation where a quest for new solutions
and creating spaces for market formatiion FTA PROCESSES lead not only to new combinations of Table 1. Innovation system functions
this is especially important given the boundary-spanning nature of grand challenges Orienting European innovation systems. 145 knowledge
This capacity-building role sees FTA PROCESSES potentially contributing to all innovation system functions by directly affecting the mind-sets and attitudes of individuals and the routines and capabilities of organisations.
or organisational strategies Provide anticipatory strategic intelligence to innovation system actors, including overall citizens, thus leading to policy processes amenable to current
mobilise resources FTA informing role FTA structuring role FTA capacity building role Innovation system functions FTA roles Figure 2. Contributions of FTA roles
to innovation system functions. Orienting European innovation systems. 147 The Knowledge and Innovation communities (KICS) initiative introduced by the European Institute of Innovattio
and Technology, is another form of research public private partnership (PPP), again placing considerabbl importance on the engagement of the business sector.
and the Table 2. FTA roles in innovation functions and their integration in EU instruments Innovation system function FTA roles Integration of FTA in EU instruments Facilitate experimenttatio
thereby contributing to the creation of variety in innovation systems Informing role of FTA facilitates building of a common vision for a specific theme or challenge,
and mutual positioning of other innovation system actors vis-a vis the future. In addition to these, FTA PROCESSES can encourage multi-disciplinarity in research needed
and join forces for designing common desirable futures Orienting European innovation systems. 149 contributions these would make to various innovation system functions. 7. Conclusions This paper has outlined the contours of an emerging mission-led approach to innovation policy that is more global
It has argued that a reorientation of innovation systems towards grand challenges could offer opportunities for a more responsible and transformative innovation practice to develop.
In this sense, it can perform a more structuring role for innovation systems in need of reorientation.
in effectively orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges remains under-exploited. One rectifying step would be to better consider the structural and functional aspects of innovattio systems with a view to identifying bottlenecks and appropriate points for effective policy intervention.
At the same time, the capacity-building role of FTA should be enabled to benefit all innovation system functiion as this would lead to the accumulation of expertise
and contribute to a better appreciation of the roles FTA can play in reorientiin innovation systems towards grand challenges.
and parcel of the dynamics of innovation systems. As Hekkert et al. 2007) point out, the notion offunction'is provided useful its heuristic value is stressed. 2. COM (2010) 2020, Brussels, 3 march 2010.3. COM (2010) 546 final, Brussels, 6 october 2010.4.
Orienting European innovation systems. 151 Arnold, E. 2004) Evaluating research and innovation policy: A systems world needs systems evaluations',Research Evaluation, 13:3 17.
Hekkert, M. P.,Suurs, R. A a.,Negro, S. O.,Kuhlmann, S. and Smits, R. E. H. M. 2007) Functions of innovation systems:
Jacobsson, S. and Bergek, A. 2006) A framework for guiding policy-makers intervening in emerging innovation systems incatching-up'countries',European Journal of Development Research, 18: 687 707.
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