ethical and social impacts of nanosciences,-technologies, and-artifacts. The paper suggests that Inclusive foresight, reinforced with the principles of CSH, can be of use in the nano-field providing wider stakeholder representation during the research and development processes.
is the purpose of this paper. 1. 1. History Current Foresight studies attempt to create collective anticipations, usually related to technology,
and methods used in technology forecasting, indeed initially the Japanese studies were called‘technology forecasts 'and were based on US experience of the Delphi method.
As a result, there are two general shapes to Foresight studies that flow from early decisions about their procedures and management structure.
Inclusivity is a matter of creating trust across a wide range of communities in discussions of future developments, especially in science and technology.
and technology and has paid relatively little attention to the third. The case for inclusivity comes directly out of the need to recognise the following:
-The assumption that all technologies are desirable and that people possess an infinite‘plasticity'toward the adoption of ever more invasive, complicated, if not complex technologies-The lack of trust between all the parties involved, especially between the‘expert'community and the general public,
which has undergone such a marked erosion in recent years with the shift towards a postmodern world 1209 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221-A dissatisfaction
'a well known concept in brain science (see 6), toward the adoption of ever more invasive technologies: this is now widely questioned.
In an example of foresight in this connection, Loveridge 7 outlined the way that computer and communication technologies might evolve into‘information technology',with its widespread adoption throughout society,
It was a time of immense confidence in science and technology, and their applications to improve wealth creation
the deleterious side effects of technology, or the attempts to deal with social problems through the procedures of science hang on the answers to questions that can be asked of science
and technology the non-expert's view about desirability will be as important. The last of Barker and Peters fields (6) is clearly inaccessible even to the expert community who make up the committees that advise policy makers;
All the experiments that have been made spread Foresight well beyond the conventional sphere of technology alone. 3. 1. Policy requirements for inclusivity For policy purposes the minimum conditions for Inclusive foresight then seem to be:
as does 1 above 3. Greater opportunity for participation from all levels, ages and gender throughout the scientific and technology community,
5. Admission of the social influence on the directions taken by science and technology from within and without the scientific and technology community 6. Greater attention to the question of desirability,
and technology have been the traditional focus for Foresight: even there inclusivity has not often been an important feature.
The traditional hierarchies of science and technology have tended to dominate even where there have been specific efforts to widen participation.
Conditions for inclusivity in science and technology need to address this concern. In 9 above, there is a concern for the psychology of information overload;
Furthermore, the omnibus term‘nanotechnology'misleads the participants in any Foresight study into believing that they are confronting a homogeneous and coherent technology
Nano artifacts depend on the convergence of sets of sciences and technologies, elsewhere called genus sciences and technologies 23, of very different kinds for their evolution into feasible and (hopefully) desirable artifacts.
even though biotechnological artifacts too require the convergence of sets of sciences and technologies for their evolution.
Critical to public acceptance is the growth of a critical mass of opinion favourable to any particular form of nano artifact and its supporting sciences and technologies:
and technologies. Underlying the discussion is the contention that, as practiced, institutional Foresight contains a democratic deficit characterised by exclusivity as the extent of public participation is restricted.
Technology and Strategic management 20 (1)( 2008) 29 44 January 24 P. Berg, et al. Potential Biohazards of RECOMBINANT DNA Molecules, Science (1974) 303.
and technologies promise applications which may radically affect society. Nanotechnology is no exception, promising many benefits through nano-enabled applications across multiple sectors and with the potential of affecting many parts of our society.
and dynamics in the environments the hopeful technology may encounter. For those wishing to enable beneficial technology applications stemming from potentially breakthrough areas of science and technology, such as nanotechnology,
this complexity increases as we shift from retro-to prospective analysis of potential paths to innovation
But the potential breakthrough nature of nanotechnologies as enablers of radically new applications may mean a complex reconfiguration of the environments that a nanotechnology innovation may traverse during its‘lifetime'from concept to well embedded technology in our society.
However, for breakthrough technologies, the factors that shape the pathways may be evolving too! An example could be the regulatory landscape
which would enable certain technology options and constrain others. The arrangements of the industrial sector could also enable
and constrain certain technology options. Of course the technology options themselves may shape the landscapes that they encounter could initiate a change in industrial sectors, in regulation etc.
Nanotechnology, even at this nascent stage, is stimulating a lot of speculation on shifts in these landscapes leading to a desire to explore the potential mutual co-evolution of nanotechnologies
theory and concepts Recent thinking about innovation adds up to a general idea that technology emergence is a process of innovation and selection shot through with anticipations (c. f. quasi-evolutionary
institutional and social factors in shaping a technology. 4 Braun for example describes the early notions of innovation as being characterised by a‘linear'view of innovation as an automatic spill over process between basic knowledge
which enable and constrain certain technology options, I will call selection environments. 1224 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting
and promoters who project a linear path from their technology option into the future described in Box 1) and attempted to broaden this concentric bias by taking into consideration open-ended nature of their projections and structured explorations of the journey-like
This landscape will have different characteristics at different stages of technology/product emergence and is shaped by broader framing conditions and by anticipatory coordination on the part of technology developers and promoters,
Within this mosaic certain technology options are enabled whilst others are constrained. The arenas for innovation and selection are shown here as bubbles where each arena represents a particular socio-technical configuration carrying
which journeys through these bubbles. 7 The technology (and its socio-technical network) shifts and reconfigures based on the arenas it encounters,
and coevoluution of technologies and the IC+we need some indications of how paths-to-innovation may emerge
and insights into the transition from present into future. 2. 3. Endogenous futures While new (emerging science and technology introduce novelties,
When technology is involved, irreversibilities are solidified further in configurations that work 30. The concept of configuration that works applies to artefacts and systems,
Van Merkerk and Robinson 9 show examples from the field of lab-on-a-chip technology and how expectations have an effect on selection choices of pathways to follow,
and current situation and developed three co-evolutionary scenarios showing plausible playings out of technology innovations
Anticipation on further regulatory delays sees shift in private investments from nano to other promising technologies.
1) Instrumental motivations legitimising R&d activities as a policy to ensure that technology is held not back by public skepticism;(
Early stage technologies are fragile and too early selection may inhibit novel solutions. The same for regulation-nanocodes enable in this scenario
In this case a technology 12 Nanodiablog crosses all three motivations for engagement. The normative motivation is set down in the EU Action plan
One technology entrepreneur uses the Nanodiablog with a substantive motivation for engagement to improve the product.
and others lead to the inclusion of engagement programmes in technology R&d programmes to inform
The co-evolution of regulatory approaches and technology options was discussed also throughout the workshop, although not directly quoted in the discussions,
The lack of clarity and small print is unsettling for early stage technologies. Uncertainty in possible inroads for litigation and liability is covered not by such codes,
Similar developments can be seen for crime scene investigation and civil security technologies, where advanced diagnostics,
forensics and identification technologies were stimulated the focus by government grants, small companies begin to commercialise this technology Broader context of comparable innovation journeys:
these other fields are added to compare to the medical device innovation journeys later in the scenario..
and other engagement exercises lead to the inclusion of engagement programmes in technology R&d programmes to inform
Emergence of platform technologies with applications in multiple sectors and comprising of ever increasing complexity of functional nano-elements (multifunctional tailored nanoparticles, highly integrated Lab on a chip, Moore than More integrating of semiconductors
increasing complexity of governance of platform technologies. This highlights another issue of where to locate responsibility for nanotechnology in applications,
connecting it to a halt (moratoria) on technology progress. This was placed in the text to provoke a discussion..
6. Evaluation and discussion These co-evolutionary scenarios can prepare the ground for discussion of complex potential radical technologies via the combination of endogenous futures, the IC+framework and deep case research into actors
using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: K. H. Sørensen, R. Williams (Eds. Shaping technology, Guiding Policy:
a framework and an application to Lab on a chip technology for medical and pharmaceutical applications, Technol.
making use of recent insights from sociology and economics of technology, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 7 (4)( 1995) 417 431.13 A. Rip, A co-evolutionary approach to reflexive governance and its ironies, in:
New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology, The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts, 1987.16 K. Green, R. Hull, A. Mcmeeking, V. Walsh, The construction of the techno-economic:
Policy 28 (1999) 777 792.17 S. Bakker, H. van Lente, M. Meeus, Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies, Innovation studies Utrecht (ISU) Working
Paper Series, Working Paper#08.19,2009. 18 H. van Lente, Promising Technology The Dynamics of Expectations in Technological developments.
Essays on Power, Technology and Domination, Routledge, London, 1991, pp. 132 161.23 B. de Laat, Scripts for the future technological foresight, strategic analysis and socio technical networks:
in science and technology, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 18 (2006) 285 298.14 Targeted (and used) for transition policy. 4 15 Used for open-ended roadmapping by technology developers at early stages of development 6. 16 Used for exploring industrial/sectorial alignment/misalignments. 17 See Haico
Analysis, participation and power in the social appraisal of technology, in: M. Leach, I. Scoones, B. Wynne (Eds.),
Douglas K. R. Robinson obtained his Undergraduate and Masters degree in Physics and Space science and Technology at the University of Leicester (UK), Universität Siegen (Germany) and International Space University in Strasbourg (France.
technology and innovation studies; socio-technical; public research organisatioons foresight; science and technology and innovation policy studies 1. Introduction The setting of priorities in science
and innovation policy is one of the most important rationales for implementing national foresight activities. Important users of this type of foresight activity are often national research and innovation councils,
and technology was formulated by Ben Martin as‘the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology,
cross-societal discussion of the future prospects for science and technology and with implementing the results of such discussions in priorities for public expenditures on research.
the concepts of national innovation systems (NIS) and technology innovation systeem (TIS) are important in understanding how new technologies emerge
and suppliers of technology (i e. to influence the direction in which actors employ their resources);(
and discussed them in light of, for example, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment (Martino 1983; Millet and Honton 1991.
The fact that Delphi surveys often solely include point of views from scientists indicates that scientists in such surveey are expected to know about the future development of technology.
and lists of approaches and methood for foresight have been suggested by different authors in review articles on foresight and future-oriented technology assessment methods (Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004).
Most foresight practice in Europe has been focussed on public policy making and especially policy making in science and technology
since the 1960s from the first generation of technology-oriented forecasting to the current third-or fourth-generation activities that also include wider social dimensions (Reger 2001;
that of science, technology, economy and society in general. In the perspective of strategic positioning (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand,
and the development of generic technologies, become determined by generic market structure of global research and technology.
This includes methods such as technology watching, trend analyses and the use of learning curves. As already mentioned, the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists.
The context is not related to any particular understanding of science or technological development but to powers and political interests in the affected areas of science and technology;
in this sense it is almost a Mode 1 understanding of science and technology; Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
The council was located in the Danish research Agency under the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation,
However, in the first phase a number of Danish researchers in science and technology, who were not members of the council,
and discussed the different areas of research in science and technology, building on, among other things, the vision papers.
Therefore, the strategic areas can to some extent be seen as representing the main areas of research in science and technology,
1) biotechnology and chemistry,(2) energy,(3) environment,(4) nanotechnology,(5) production and materials technology,(6) information systems,(7) simulation and, finally,(8) research consortia.
with the aim of inspiring them to spend more on science and technology. Whereas the earlier plans focused on‘internal'prioritisation and strategic action within the research council
R&d on environmentally friendly energy production technologies. The PSO R&d programme was operated by the two electricity grid operators
A third funding source for energy research, a New energy and Environment Research programme, was established also in the period through the Strategic research Council, under the auspices of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.
The selection of areas basically reflected Danish energy policy and its focus on environmentally friendly energyproduuctio technologies,
The selection of only four priority areas resulted in a stronger and narrower technology focus than the broader priority areas of the Energy research programme's earlier strategies.
First, work on hydrogen technology was initiated, an area with application to research on fuel cells. Second, strategy activities concerning energy-efficient technologies and biofuels were launched by the Danish energy authority.
In addition for the other priority areas of technology roadmap exercises were recommended as a follow-up activity. It was, in general,
There was a relatively strong network, both informal and formal, between the programme management and the established industrial and research actors in the field of energy technology.
Technollog and Innovation Partly the Confederation of Danish Industries Advisory Council for Energy Research Energy production companies Energy-technology companies Scientists Interest groupings/NGOS Target groups
Upward Government minister, parliamentary politicians Downward Programme Management system operators (PSO actors) Energy production companies Energy-technology companies Scientists Approaches Key scope Science
-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own
and technology this does not seem to have influenced significantly strategic thinking and strateggi processes in Danish research councils and research programmes.
In contrast, in the Energy research programme there seems to exist a more coherent understanding of strategy associated with developing new energy technologies.
technology and not science-discipline-oriented The strategy of positions of strength: underpinning priorities related to scientific strengths rather than future societal or industrial potentials The strategy of developing new production and consumption systems:
priority-setting goes beyond selecting between areas of science and technology: to develop measures and instruments are also important issues in research strategies.
The strategy processes can benefit from better articulated expectations about future technologiies It is not enough to argue that a certain technology offers great opportunities for future commercial exploitation.
and future energy technologies. He has headed and participated in numerous national and international studies. Mads Borup is a senior scientist at the Innovation systems
An important part of his work is also strategic foresight on environment and technology. Notes 1. The two electricity grid operators were at that time Eltra and Elkraft System.
the case of renewable energy technology in Sweden. In Technology and the market: demand, users and innovation, eds.
R. Coombs, K. Green, V. Walsh, and A. Richards. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Johnson, G, . and K. Scholes. 2002.
Foresight in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 7, no. 2: 139 68. Martino, J. P. 1983.
A manager's guide to technology forecasting and strategy analysis methods. Columbus/Richland, OH: Batelle Press.
Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group. 2004. Technology future analysis: towards integration of the field and new methods.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303. The Prime minister's Office. 2006: Progress, innovation and cohesion.
In an opening section, the general contours of science, technology and innovation (STI) policy in Luxembourg are traced, with a view to contextualising the FNR Foresight experience.
Luxembourg lacked a public science, technology and innovation infrastructure. R&d carried out in Luxembourg was largely the preserve of the private sector particularly the steel industry and even today,
To assist the development of outstanding centres of science and technology excellence in Luxembourg; To ensure the specialisation of public research centre facilities into centres with a limited number of specific areas of high level expertise;
environmental sciences, biomedical sciences, information and communication technologies, physical sciences and engineering, social sciences and humanities. 6. The single Social sciences and Humanities group of the first phase was replaced by two groups:
Choosing priorities in science and technology. Paris: OECD. OECD. 2007. Reviews of innovation policy: Luxembourg. Paris:
Foresighting and technology choice in small developing countries. In Paper presented at the EU US Seminar:
policy impact 1. Introduction In 2006, the City of Vienna initiated a far-reaching and open strategy process on the orientation of its future research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy.
By then, Vienna is aiming to be among Europe's leading metropolitan areas in research, technology and innovation,
government policies in relation to research and technology had predominantly been inspired by an approach that today is labelled often as‘picking winners':
the late 1970s saw the emergence of a new paradigm in research, technology and then also innovation policies,
technology and innovation, which not only deals with framework conditions, but also with the institutional and structural settings of innovation systems (Dosi 1988;
In line with these concepts, the 1990s were also characterised by a great reluctance of government policy to prioritise research themes and select technologies in a top down manner.
science, technology and innovation policies give the thematic portfolio of a country or region a greater weight again and pay more attention to long-term perspectives.
in order to keep pace with the international developments in science, technology and innovation, with new employment patterns and with the need to further upgrade research and innovation performance.
technology and innovation options among players, creating debate Awareness of the systemic character of change processes Foresight skills are developed in a wider circle Dialogues in new combinations of experts and stakeholders and a shared understanding
application potential of science and technology; Fast second mover: exploitation in the focus; Multi-centric excellence:
1) Making effective use of the potential for research, technology and innovation by creating adequate conditions for young people, irrespective of their origins,
building in particular on the existing key areas of life sciences, information and communication technology and creative industries.
Under the slogan‘Vienna research in dialogue',the City will address essential contemporary and future issues in the field of science, research and technology.
technology and innovation among different players that are primarily dealing with other issues. While still being distributed very much among different municipal departments,
Notes on contributors Matthias Weber is Head of Research, Technology and Innovation (RTI) Policy Unit at Austrian Institute of technology (AIT) invienna.
Paper presented at the 40th Anniversary Conference of SPRU,‘The Future of Science, Technology and Innovation policy:
technologies, institutions and organizations. London: Pinter. Eriksson, E. A, . and M. Weber. 2008. Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies.
The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project Stefanie Jenssen a a Centre for technology, innovation and culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway Published online:
The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project Stefanie Jenssen*Centre for technology, innovation and culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway The article addresses the theme of foresight and equality in the area of stakeholder participation
'They emphasise that future negotiating processes have to be studied according to how they are performed instead of looking at them as mere problem-solving tools for more prudent strategic decision making. 6 The Sociology of expectations analyses foresight practises as structured around expectations and promises in technology,
me to republish his illustration as figure 2. Notes on contributor Stefanie Jenssen is a research fellow at the Centre for Technology,
The sociology of expectations in science and technology. Technology analysis and Strategic management 18, no. 3/4: 285 98.
Technology and good dementia care: a study of technology and ethics in everyday care practice.
Phd diss. University of Oslo. UNESCAP. 2009. What is good governance? United nations. http://www. unescap. org/pdd/prs/Projectactivities/Ongoing/gg/governance. asp (accessed September 2009.
Promising technology: the dynamics of expectations in technological developments. Phd diss. University of Twente. Van Notten, P. 2005.
Risk and environment as legitimatory discourses of technology: reflexivity inside out? Current Sociology 50, no. 3: 459 477.
Quick technology intelligence processes Alan L. Porter*,1 R&d, Search Technology, Inc.,4960 Peachtree Industrial Blvd.
and technology publication and patent abstract databases to better inform technology management. To do so requires developing templates of innovation indicators to answer standard questions.
Tech mining; Text mining; Knowledge discovery in databases 1. Introduction How long does it take to provide a particular Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA?
aporter@searchtech. com 1 He is also Professor Emeritus, Georgia Tech, and co-directs the Technology policy & Assessment Center there//tpac. gatech. edu. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081
Of particular note to FTA, the great science and technology (S&t) databases cover a significant portion of the world's research output.
For instance, suppose we have a certain Sshaape growth model that we find highly informative for a particular family of technology forecasts.
Today, major organizations are standardizing certain strategic technology and business decision processes. Stagegaat approaches set forth explicit decisions to be sequenced toward particular ends (e g.,
Likewise, the established technology decision framework constitutes the fourth factor needed for QTIP-decision process standardization.
Fuel cells are the example technology. They convert hydrogen and oxygen into water, producing electricity and heat in the process.
We have investigated already technologies and determined that SOFC's appear most promising, but will need enhancement and customization.
13 Management of Technology (bmotq) issues! 39 MOT questions! 200 binnovation indicatorsq. 2 We gratefully acknowledge support of the U s. National science Foundation for"QTIPS-24-Hour Technology intelligence & Forecasting"(DMI-0231650.
For instance, Georgia Tech previously hosted key databases on its own server for access by students, staff, and faculty.
At times the Technology policy and Assessment Center at Georgia Tech has accessed such sources through a gateway service,
The resulting information for btech miningq consists primarily of science and technology (S&t) publication and patent abstract records.
in technology X? Q They would recognize and understand each component indicator, and know what to look for.
Furthermore, the further the analysis probes into advanced technologies, the more critical it becomes to obtain inputs by substantive experts.
Siemens-Westinghouse, Allied-Signal, NGK Insulators Fig. 1. Technology ddone-Pagerq. A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1075 o three companies each show 7
Low High tech Fit Tech Coverage Tech Concentration Hungry? Capabilities Spectrum Res Dev Mfg Com SCORECARD Auto-Correlation Map Inventors (Cleaned)( Cleaned...
Other variants of company profiling might compare the company's activities across technologies, or probe more deeply into a more specific sub-area (e g.,
What the technology focus and organizational focus profiles hold in common is a compilation of empirical information to help answer a particular MOT question. 3. Discussion This paper illustrates how to compose informative decision support from empirical information concerning various
Tech mining offers qualitatively different capabilities. It can uncover patterns that reflect competitor strategies 9. It can also enable researchers
As such it represents one advanced form of technology monitoring. This information can serve other FTA needs to various degrees:!
Technology foresight Quick tech mining can help participants grasp the scope of technology development efforts. Access to results in interactive mode (e g.,
Technology Forecasting QTIP can provide empirical measures for certain trend analyses to support growth model fitting
Technology and Product Roadmapping QTIP serves background information roles well. It is vital in documenting external technology development activities to track their likely trajectories.
In sum, tech mining offers partial, but potentially very effective, support for these varied FTA endeavors.
The Vice-president for Research at Georgia Tech asks me to benchmark this university's SOFC research against the leading American universities for a presentation this noon.
and are licensed for unlimited use by Georgia Tech.!8: 10 am: I complete simple searches in SCI
I search a compilation of Georgia Tech publication records to augment the VP's awareness of who is active in fuel cells.
I check that my search strategy captures most of the Georgia Tech authored papers to help validate the query.!
and notes that Georgia Tech has collaborated recently with a key researcher at one of the other universities.
He notes that we have left out a key Georgia Tech SOFC researcher who leads many sponsored research projects on
S w. Cunningham, Tech Mining: Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage, Wiley, New york, 2005.2 T. Teichert, M.-A. Mittermayer, Text mining for technology monitoring, IEEE IEMC 2002 (2002) 596 601.3 R
. J. Watts, A l. Porter, Innovation forecasting, Technological forecasting and Social Change 56 (1997) 25 47.4 N c. Newman, A l. Porter, J. Yang, Information professionals:
K. W. Boyack, Visualizing knowledge domains, Annual Review of Information science and Technology 37 (2003) 179 255.7 A l. Porter, E. Yglesias, A. Kongthon, C. Courseault, N c. Newman, Getting
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